1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly, while the port market has shown a slight firmness. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 oscillating between 2270 - 2360 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The inland methanol market has declined due to sufficient post - holiday enterprise inventories and port imports flowing back to the inland. The port market is driven by sanctions news and a late - session futures rally, with the basis strengthening. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2260 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 47, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 127.30 million tons, with a 0.49 - million - ton increase from before the holiday. The overall available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has increased by 5.99 million tons to 94.05 million tons [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [5]. - **Expectation**: The methanol price is expected to oscillate this week, with MA2601 running between 2270 - 2360 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya); the methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua); there is a concentrated arrival of ships at the port in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, prices in different regions show various changes. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.76% week - on - week, while prices in Shandong, Hebei, etc. have remained unchanged. In the futures market, the closing price has increased by 17 yuan/ton. In terms of spreads, the basis, import spread, etc. have also changed [8][9]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, etc. have also changed to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports has decreased by 1.60 million tons, while the inventory in South China ports has increased by 2.09 million tons [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in the process of maintenance or have experienced production suspension. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. have shut down or reduced production for different reasons and durations [61]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some overseas methanol production devices, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have resumed one set of equipment, but it needs to be verified [62]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some olefin production devices with supporting methanol production also have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and it is expected to last for 45 days [63].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market will return to a volatile state, awaiting the final result of the anti-dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and the low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and the Sino - Canadian trade negotiation is still uncertain. The market will be affected by news in the short term and maintain a volatile state [9]. - The rapeseed meal futures declined with a shock, while the spot price remained relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expanded. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated at a low level [18][20]. - The import volume of rapeseed in October remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The crushing volume of rapeseed in oil mills remained at a low level [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish slightly rebounded, while the price of shrimps and shellfish remained stable [35]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2420. The market is affected by factors such as the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations, and is expected to maintain a volatile state in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue affects the short - term export and reduces the domestic supply expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and an import deposit of 75.8% was imposed. If the final ruling is established, the deposit will be levied as additional tariffs and will not be refunded, but the final result is still uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially the production in Canada is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in rapeseed production in Ukraine and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. The global geopolitical conflict may still rise in the future, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Sino - Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - Price difference data: From September 24 to October 10, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated. For example, on September 24, the average price difference was 468, and on October 10, it was 465 [13]. - Futures and spot price data: From September 24 to October 10, the rapeseed meal futures prices (including the main 2601 and far - month 2605 contracts) and the spot price (in Fujian) fluctuated. For example, on September 24, the main 2601 contract was 2395, and the spot price was 2500 [15]. - Warehouse receipt data: From September 22 to October 10, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts changed. For example, on September 22, there were 9248 warehouse receipts, and on September 30, there were 9199 (- 46 compared with the previous day) [17]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions increased, and the funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（10.9-10.10） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 785 | 790 | 5 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 820 | 824 | 4 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -10.71 | -28.76 | -18.05 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 0 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is generally bearish. The expected supply increase due to the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, combined with a weak market performance during the peak season and the resurgence of Trump's tariff - increasing remarks, leads to an expectation of further decline in the main 01 contract. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts show a complex supply - demand situation for cotton. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report indicates 2550 million tons of production and consumption in the 25/26 season; the USDA9 monthly report shows 2562.2 million tons of production and 2587.2 million tons of consumption. China's textile and clothing exports in August decreased by 5% year - on - year, and cotton imports decreased by 51.6% year - on - year, while棉纱 imports increased by 18.18% year - on - year. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14757, with a basis of 1432 (01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 822 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, supply is expected to increase. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: Global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports. For example, China's production is expected to be 707.6 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 838.2 million tons [9]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, consumption is 2.560 million tons, ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, and global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, China's production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14000 - 16000 yuan per ton [13]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bearish, with an increase in net short positions [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Multiple institutions have different predictions for the global sugar supply and demand situation in the 2025/26 season, with a general trend towards a shift from balance to surplus [8][35]. - The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday was temporarily blocked, the upward momentum weakened, and the price oscillated and weakened again. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5][8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow raised the global sugar surplus forecast for the 25/26 season to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 277 million tons in the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply gap of 23.1 million tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 11.1621 billion tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 billion tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of sugar syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons. This is bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5870, and the basis is 374 (for the 01 contract), with a premium over futures, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [5]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The night - trading price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday was temporarily blocked, the upward momentum weakened, and the price oscillated and weakened again. The 01 contract is expected to run weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5][8]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a supply gap narrowing to 20 million tons, StoneX predicts a supply surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a supply surplus of 620 - 750 million tons, Datagro predicts a supply surplus of 153 million tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a supply surplus of 420 million tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a supply surplus of 40 million tons, and Green Pool predicts a supply surplus of 115 million tons [35]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: The sugarcane planting area, sugar production, import, consumption, and price ranges for different seasons (2024/25, 2023/24, 2025/26) are provided. For example, in the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.2 billion tons, the import is 5 billion tons, and the consumption is 15.9 billion tons [37]. - **Import Data**: In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; the total import of sugar syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons [5][8]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures continued to decline last week, with the main contract FG2601 closing 0.25% lower than before the National Day holiday at 1,207 yuan/ton. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass large sheets was 1,148 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from before the holiday. The glass fundamentals are neutral to weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Market Weekly Review - The main contract FG2601 of glass futures closed at 1,207 yuan/ton last week, down 0.25% from before the National Day holiday. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass large sheets was 1,148 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from before the holiday. The main contract basis increased by 9.26% [2][3][7]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, with the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises at a historical low. The capital repayment in the deep-processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory. The "anti-involution" market sentiment has faded [5]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The number of operating float glass production lines in the country was 225 last week, with an operating rate of 76.01% and a daily melting volume of 161,300 tons. The supply has stabilized at a low level [2]. - **Demand**: Some mid - and downstream players have carried out phased speculative restocking, driving a slight reduction in factory inventories. However, the recovery of the terminal real estate market is weak, and the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are weak. The traditional peak demand season is lackluster [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, up 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and net import ratios over the years. For example, in 2024E, the production was 5,510 million tons, the consumption was 5,310 million tons, and the net import ratio was - 0.90% [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the silicon - manganese market showed a weak and volatile trend. The black - series commodity sector had a narrow - range oscillation, and the alloy market lacked directional drivers. The futures price was waiting for a single - side driving factor. Currently, the fundamental driving force of silicon - manganese itself was limited, and it would continue to resonate with the black - series sector in the short term. The future trend of black - series commodities and macro - sentiment needed continuous attention. It was predicted that the market would continue to oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Manganese Silicon Supply Capacity - A chart shows the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2016 - 06 to 2025 - 06 [6][7] Annual Output - A chart presents the annual production of silicon - manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and China from 2008 to 2025 [8][9] Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率 - A chart displays the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [10][11] Regional Output - Charts show the monthly production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand Steel Tender Purchase Price - A chart shows the monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 06 [15][16] Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - A chart shows the weekly daily average hot metal production and profit rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - A chart shows the monthly import and export quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - A chart shows the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region from 2019 - 09 - 30 to 2025 - 03 - 31 [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - Manganese Ore Import Volume - A chart shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 04 [23][24] Port Inventory and Available Days - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available inventory days in China from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [25][26] High - Grade Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [27][28] Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - A chart shows the daily price of South African semi - carbonate manganese lump (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese lump (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [29] Regional Cost - A chart shows the daily cost of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - Regional - A chart shows the daily profit of silicon - manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 04 - 01 [32][33]

目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（10.9~10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约上涨1.25%，周五收盘报20980元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存508825吨，较前周出现小幅增加， SHFE周库存增1180吨至124777吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | -- ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Shanghai Copper Weekly Report (10.9 - 10.10)" [1] - Author: Zhu Senlin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Last week, Shanghai copper prices rose significantly, with the main contract up 3.37% to 85,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariffs, Indonesian copper mine force majeure, and the rise of precious metals stimulated the price increase. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The domestic spot market is mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, while SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons [4] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main Shanghai copper contract rose 3.37% last week, closing at 85,910 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariffs, Indonesian copper mine force majeure, and the rise of precious metals drove the price up. Downstream consumption willingness is average, and the spot market is mainly for rigid - demand transactions. LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **PMI**: No specific content provided - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, there is a tight supply - demand balance, and in 2025, there will be an oversupply. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024 [12][15] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is being destocked, and bonded area inventory remains at a low level [16][19] 3. Market Structure - **Processing Fee**: Processing fees are at a low level [22] - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [24] - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: No specific content provided - **Import Profit**: No specific content provided - **Warehouse Receipt**: No specific content provided

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to decline. The closing price of the main contract SA2601 dropped 1.20% compared to before the National Day holiday, reaching 1240 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from before the holiday. With ample supply, weak demand, and high inventory, the fundamentals of soda ash remain weak. Considering the possible intensification of Sino - US tariff frictions, the short - term trend is expected to be mainly weak and volatile [3]. Summary by Directory Weekly Viewpoint - Futures and spot prices of soda ash declined last week. Supply is at a high level, with an expected weekly output of 770,000 tons and an operating rate of 89%. The second - phase project of Yuangxing Energy is expected to be put into production by the end of the year. Demand is weak due to supply disturbances in downstream float glass and the implementation of "anti - involution" in photovoltaic glass. Inventory is at a historically high level, with the national factory inventory of soda ash at 1.6598 million tons as of October 9, up 0.50% from the previous week [3]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to be favorable**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [5]. - **Likely to be unfavorable**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The production of heavy - soda downstream photovoltaic glass has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [6][8]. Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, inventory is at a high level compared to the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7]. Soda Ash Futures and Spot Weekly Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1255 yuan/ton to 1240 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.20%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe decreased from 1170 yuan/ton to 1150 yuan/ton, a drop of 1.71%. The main basis increased from - 85 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.88% [9]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1150 yuan/ton, down 1.71% from the previous week [14]. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production profit**: The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash was - 89.25 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process was - 114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [17]. - **Operating rate, production capacity, and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.41%. The weekly output was 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high. The weekly production heavy - soda ratio was 55.62% [20][22][25]. - **Changes in production capacity**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity was 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [26]. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash was 92.23% [29]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 161,300 tons, and the operating rate was 76.01% and stable [32]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The national soda ash factory inventory was 1.6598 million tons, up 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [39]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Data on the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate, are provided [40].