1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino-US trade frictions may intensify; the maintenance volume of soda ash plants is lower than expected, and the second phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year. The overall supply is at a high level. The supply of downstream float glass is highly volatile, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high for the same period, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,240 yuan/ton, and the basis is -90 yuan. The futures price is higher than the spot price, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The macro situation is bearish, and the fundamentals of soda ash are weak. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate weakly [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish Factors**: During the peak maintenance period this year, the production is expected to decline [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved. The risk points are that the cold repair of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is lower than expected, and the macro利好 is higher than expected [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.80% from the previous value. The low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.29% from the previous value. The main basis is -90 yuan, an increase of 5.88% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by the ammonia-alkali method in North China is -89.25 yuan/ton, and the profit by the co-production method in East China is -114.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 88.41%. The weekly production of soda ash is 770,800 tons, including 428,700 tons of heavy soda ash, and the production is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Changes**: From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with large-scale production plans each year. The total planned production capacity in 2023 is 6.4 million tons, 1.8 million tons in 2024, and 7.5 million tons in 2025, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 92.23% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 76.01%. The demand for soda ash from the downstream photovoltaic glass has weakened [27][5]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.6598 million tons, an increase of 0.50% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [34]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - The supply and demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows that the production capacity, production, import, export, and other data of soda ash have changed over the years, and the supply and demand gap also varies [35].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core View - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line, with increased trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more short - position reduction. Overall, it was a volume - contracting decline. As prices fell, long - position holders exited actively, and short - position holders exited even more actively. In the short term, the market may fluctuate weakly. Technically, the price closed above the long - term moving average, with strong moving - average support. The short - term indicator KDJ rose and operated in the strong area; the trend indicator declined, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the dominance of short - position strength narrowing. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate weakly [19]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 22,350, and the basis was + 80, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On October 10, LME zinc inventory decreased by 300 tons to 37,950 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,777 tons to 60,644 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc fluctuated and declined, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main position was net short, and the short position decreased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on October 10 - The trading volume of zinc futures contracts on that day totaled 281,454 lots, with a total trading value of 3.15265218 billion yuan. The open interest was 215,372 lots, a decrease of 5,828 lots compared to the previous day [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on October 10 - The price of zinc concentrate was 17,420 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingots was 22,350 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets was 4,000 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes was 4,407 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy was 22,850 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder was 27,610 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide was 20,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide was 7,790 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [4]. 8. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (2025/9/22 - 2025/10/9) - On October 9, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.362 million tons. Compared with September 25, it increased by 7,000 tons; compared with September 29, it increased by 73,000 tons [5]. 9. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on October 10 - The total zinc warrants on that day were 60,644 tons, an increase of 1,777 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on October 10 - The LME zinc inventory on that day was 37,950 tons, a decrease of 300 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 11. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on October 10 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters all increased by 160 yuan/ton [12]. 12. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 470,300 tons [14]. 13. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on October 10 - The processing fees of zinc concentrates in different regions varied, with the import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate being 105 US dollars per dry ton [16]. 14. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Transaction and Position Ranking on October 10 - For the contract code zn2511, the total trading volume of members was 284,573 lots, an increase of 76,994 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 73,034 lots, a decrease of 3,740 lots, and the total short - position volume was 71,273 lots, a decrease of 4,868 lots [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The glass market is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term due to macro - level negatives and a weak fundamental situation. The supply has decreased to a relatively low level for the same period, with increased supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US trade friction may intensify. "Anti - involution" and environmental protection policies in the Shahe area have boosted sentiment, but there are many supply - side disturbances. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1148 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1207 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 59 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to macro - level negatives and a weak glass fundamental situation, it is expected to be mainly in a weak and volatile state in the short term [2]. Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry. Some production lines in the Shahe area are undergoing "coal - to - gas" conversion, increasing supply - side disturbances [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the inventory of raw sheets [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level for the same period, with more supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak, so it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [6]. Glass Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1218 | 1207 | - 0.90% | | Shahe Safety Large - Plate Spot Price (yuan/ton) | 1156 | 1148 | - 0.69% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | - 62 | - 54 | - 4.84% | [7] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large plates in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1148 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. Cost - Side of Fundamentals - **Glass Production Profit**: No specific profit data provided, only the data sources (Longzhong and Steel Union) are mentioned [15][20]. Supply - Side of Fundamentals - **Glass Production Lines and Output**: The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%. The daily melting capacity of float glass is 161,300 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level for the same period in history and is stabilizing and rebounding [23][25]. Demand - Side of Fundamentals - **Float Glass Monthly Consumption**: In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [29]. - **Housing Sales, New Construction, Construction, and Completion Area**: No specific data provided, only the data source (Wind) is mentioned [36][38]. - **Downstream Processor's Operation and Order Situation**: No specific data provided, only the data source (Longzhong) is mentioned [42]. Inventory of Fundamentals The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.824 million weight boxes, an increase of 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [45]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Fundamentals | Year | Production | Calculation | Other | Japan | Apparent Supply | Consumption | Maintenance | Production Growth Rate | Consumption Growth Rate | Net Import Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 5354 | 21 | 112 | - 91 | 5263 | 5229 | 34 | | | - 1.734 | | 2018 | 5162 | 22 | 86 | - 64 | 5098 | 5091 | 7 | - 3.59% | - 2.64% | - 1.26% | | 2019 | 5052 | 40 | 65 | - 25 | 5027 | 5061 | - 34 | - 2.13% | - 0.59% | - 0.50% | | 2020 | 5000 | 56 | 42 | 14 | 5014 | 5064 | - 50 | - 1.03% | 0.06% | 0.289 | | 2021 | 5494 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 5507 | 5412 | 95 | 9.88% | 6.87% | 0.244 | | 2022 | 5463 | 23 | 68 | - 45 | 5418 | 5327 | | - 0.56% | - 1.57% | - 0.834 | | 2023 | 5301 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5252 | 5372 | - 120 | - 2.97% | 0.84% | - 0.934 | | 2024E | 5510 | 20 | 69 | - 49 | 5461 | 5310 | 151 | 3.94% | - 1.15% | - 0.90% | [46]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the post - holiday spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the spot basis has weakened slightly. Some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, along with the postponement of new device production, have improved the PTA supply - demand outlook. It is expected that the short - term spot price will still fluctuate mainly following the cost side. Attention should be paid to device changes and downstream production and sales [5]. - For MEG, the arrival at the main port this week is still relatively high, and it is expected that the port inventory will still increase at the beginning of next week. In October, the supply - demand pattern of MEG turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under significant pressure. It is expected that the MEG market will operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the given text. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the mainstream transactions at the main port were around a discount of 65 to the 01 contract, with individual prices slightly lower. The price negotiation range was around 4,460 - 4,530. The mainstream spot basis today is at a discount of 65 to the 01 contract, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,450, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 49, indicating a premium on the futures market, which is neutral [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 days, which is bearish [5]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Force Position**: The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol continued to weaken, and the negotiation in the market was average. During the night session, the ethylene glycol futures market opened slightly higher, with the high - level spot transactions reaching around 4,250 yuan/ton. Subsequently, the market continued to decline, and the overall sentiment in the market was weak. Traders mainly sold their goods, and the spot negotiation and transactions at the end of the session were around 4,160 - 4,165 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the center of the external ethylene glycol market continued to weaken, and the negotiation of recent shipments fell back to around 490 - 492 US dollars/ton, with a small number of traders participating in inquiries. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign transactions are 4,162 - 4,250 yuan/ton and 490 - 495 US dollars/ton respectively, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,070, and the basis of the 01 contract is 90, indicating a discount on the futures market, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,800 tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Force Position**: The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the given text. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, and inventory changes from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [12]. - **Price - related Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, and various price spreads of PTA and MEG, such as TA - 5 spread, EG monthly spread, basis, and spot spread, which can help analyze the market trends and price relationships of PTA and MEG [14][24][31]. - **Inventory - related Data**: It includes the factory inventory of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers, as well as the inventory days of polyester products in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, which can help understand the inventory status of the polyester industry chain [40][45]. - **Operating Rate - related Data**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms in the polyester upstream and downstream, which can help analyze the production and operation status of the polyester industry chain [51][55]. - **Profit - related Data**: It includes the processing fees of PTA, production profits of MEG through different production methods, and production profits of polyester fibers, which can help analyze the profitability of the polyester industry chain [60][61].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, low purchasing willingness of traders, and the downstream real - estate industry in a downward cycle, it should be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coil, with weakening supply and demand, decreasing inventory, blocked exports, and potential domestic policy efforts, it should also be treated with a bearish - biased trading range mindset [7]. Summary by Related Catalog Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, traders' purchasing willingness is low, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3230, and the basis is 127; bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities nationwide is 4.673 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may be implemented; neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3340, and the basis is 55; bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities nationwide is 3.293 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year; bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coil's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic production - cut expectations [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [9].

分析师: 王明伟 从业资格号： F0283029 投资咨询号： Z0010442 TEL: 0575-85226759 每日观点 豆油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕8月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入减产季，棕榈油供应上压力减小。中性 2.基差：豆油现货8492，基差190，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日豆油商业库存118万吨，前116万吨，环比+2万吨，同比+11.7% 。偏空 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线下，20日均线朝下。偏空 5.主力持仓：豆油主力空减。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。中美关系僵持，美豆新豆出口受挫， 价格承压。马棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，26年预计实施B50计划。国内油脂 基本面偏中性，进口库存稳定。豆油Y2601：8000-8500附近区间震荡 证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-10-13投资咨询部 1.基本面：MP ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2601： 1.基本面：节后归来，硅锰市场偏弱震荡运行，黑色系商品板块窄幅震荡，合金市场缺乏方向性驱动，盘面整体维持窄幅 震荡走势，等待单边驱动性因素刺激期价走势，目前硅锰自身基本面驱动力度有限，短期或将继续跟随黑色系板块共振， 后市需持续关注黑色系商品走势以及宏观情绪走向；中性。 2.基差：现货价5680元/吨，01合约基差-80元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-13锰硅早报 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20走平，01合约期价收于MA20下方。中性。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-10-13） 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价833，基差38；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价848，基差53，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14641.08万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being liberalized. In September, manufacturing production accelerated with the PMI rising to 49.8%, and the business climate continued to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery, geopolitical disturbances, and the fermentation of the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia, despite the repeated US tariffs [2]. - The copper market in 2024 will have a slight surplus, while it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The supply side is disturbed, and the PMI in September shows an improved business climate. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 86,675 with a basis of 775, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 10, copper inventory decreased by 75 to 139,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week. It is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war are the logical factors affecting the market, but specific bullish and bearish factors are not detailed [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [16]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 - 2024, China's copper production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance are presented in the table. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, import is 3.73 million tons, export is 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is a surplus of 0.11 million tons [22].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-13） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿安全检查力度仍存，对焦煤产量释放形成一定抑制。近期炼焦煤价格涨跌互现， 市场交投氛围较前期有所转弱，究其原因在于部分煤价已涨至一定高位，下游对高价煤资源恐高情绪渐 显，采购偏向谨慎，煤价出现小幅的回落；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差124；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：节日期间 ...