Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices showed minor fluctuations after the National Day holiday. The expected surplus in the global sugar market for the 25/26 season has increased, with different institutions having varying forecasts. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The price is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450. There are both positive and negative factors affecting the sugar market [4][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - This week had only two trading days, and sugar prices after the National Day holiday showed minor fluctuations. Czarnikow raised the expected global sugar surplus for the 25/26 season to 7.4 million tons, 1.2 million tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicted a global sugar market surplus of 2.77 million tons for the 25/26 season. ISO estimated a global sugar supply deficit of 231,000 tons for the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China reached 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 155,700 tons [4]. 2. Daily Prompt - Overnight, the price of foreign sugar fell below the 16 - cent per pound mark again. The technical rebound of Zhengzhou sugar that started before the holiday has been temporarily hindered, and its upward momentum has weakened. The expectation of typhoon - affecting the sugar production in Guangxi has subsided, and the price has started to fluctuate weakly again. The SR2601 contract is expected to move weakly in the range of 5530 - 5450 [5]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand situation**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a supply deficit of 200,000 tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons (another mention is 7.5 million tons); Datagro predicts a surplus of 1.53 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 400,000 tons; and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 1.15 million tons. The reasons for the surplus mainly include improved crop harvests in major producing countries such as Brazil, India, and Thailand [35]. - **Domestic sugar market**: In the 2025/26 season, the estimated sugar production in China is 11.2 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.9 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach for the rubber industry [1][2][7] Core Viewpoints - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. There is a risk of a new trade war between China and the US, and it is expected that prices will open lower on Monday. Given the intensified macro risks, investors are advised to wait and see [2][3][7] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - RU2601 had an opening price of 15,180, a high of 15,480, a low of 15,150, and a closing price of 15,315, with a gain of 1.9%. NR2511 opened at 12,200, reached a high of 12,520, a low of 12,200, and closed at 12,350, up 2.07%. BR2511 opened at 1,1145, had a high of 1,1335, a low of 1,1120, and closed at 1,1220, up 1.08%. During the holiday, the overseas market was relatively flat with a price rebound, but due to the risk of a new China-US trade war over the weekend, rubber prices fell close to the previous low [3] 2. Spot Market Review - The price of 2023 state-owned full latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from before the holiday. The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,130 US dollars/ton, down 40 US dollars/ton from before the holiday. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai was 11,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from before the holiday [4] 3. Inventory Situation Review - This week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The subtotal inventory decreased by 3,729 tons to 180,630 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 5,420 tons to 144,390 tons [5] 4. Market Structure - The basis weakened this week as futures prices rose while spot prices fell [6] 5. Forecast and Operation Strategy - The market was volatile this week, and prices softened again during the Friday night session. Thai raw material prices showed mixed trends this week, with smoked sheet and cup lump prices rising and latex prices falling. Tire enterprise operating rates remained low due to the holiday, and among tire enterprise inventories, semi-steel tire inventories decreased while all-steel tire inventories remained unchanged. Given the flat overseas market performance during the holiday and the incomplete recovery of the natural rubber fundamentals due to the holiday, along with the risk of a new China-US trade war, investors are advised to wait and see [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Positive Factors**: Cost increase provides support, and manufacturers have plans to halt or reduce production [10]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand recovery is sluggish after the holiday; there is an oversupply in the downstream polysilicon market. The main reason is the mismatch between production capacity and demand, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 97,000 tons, a 4.30% increase compared to the previous week. The demand was 82,000 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The polysilicon inventory was 240,000 tons, at a high level. The silicone inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of -708 yuan/ton, in a loss - making state. The comprehensive operating rate was 70.43%, flat compared to the previous week, and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 757,000 tons, at a high level, with an import loss of 188 yuan/ton. The cost support in the Xinjiang region has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 10th, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 615 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 545,000 tons, a 0.37% increase compared to the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,850 tons, a 3.29% increase. The main port inventory was 120,000 tons [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production has increased and is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 8,550 - 8,820 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 0.32% decrease compared to the previous week. The production in October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 12.83GW, a 6.89% decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 3.38% increase. The silicon wafer production is currently in a loss - making state. The production in October is expected to be 55.68GW, a 5.70% decrease compared to the previous month. The battery cell and component production have mixed performance, with battery cells mostly in loss and components in profit [8]. - **Basis**: On October 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,585 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production is expected to increase in the short term and adjust in the medium term. The overall demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support is stable. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 48,060 - 49,870 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The futures prices of various contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The spot prices of different grades of silicon in East China remained stable [14]. - The social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory showed different trends of change. The production and operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also had corresponding changes [14]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The production, inventory, and cost - profit indicators also had corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon SI main contract and the spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19]. - The price of polysilicon main contract and the basis showed different trends over time [23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warrants showed different trends over time [25]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization - The weekly production of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production by specification, and operating rate of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. 3.6 Cost - The cost and profit trends of 421 silicon in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [35]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time, with factors such as production, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [37][40]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with factors such as supply, import, export, and consumption affecting the balance [64]. 3.8 Downstream Market 3.8.1 Silicone - The price, production, import - export, and inventory of DMC in the silicone industry showed different trends over time [43][50]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 in the silicone industry showed different trends over time [45][46]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The price, import - export, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) of aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [53][56][57]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time [61][64]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories in the polysilicon downstream industry showed different trends over time [67][70][73][76].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 11 - contract of asphalt showed a downward trend, with the Monday opening price at 3,433 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 3,328 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.05%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, supply will decrease, cost support will weaken, and the market may experience a bearish and volatile adjustment [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract of asphalt declined this week, opening at 3,433 yuan/ton on Monday and closing at 3,328 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 3.05% weekly drop [5]. - **Supply Side**: In June 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.398 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 12.7%. This week, the domestic sample capacity utilization rate of petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise production was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [5]. - **Demand Side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil weakened, and short - term support is expected to weaken [6]. - **Inventory Side**: The social inventory was 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%; the in - plant inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48%; the diluted asphalt inventory at ports was 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69%. Social inventory continued to decline, in - plant inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 11 - contract of asphalt showed a downward trend. Based on the price and volume chart, it is expected that next week, the market may experience a bearish and volatile adjustment [104][105].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with high supply and relatively weak demand. The price of lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,700 - 73,780. The cost of lithium compounds is generally high, and most production methods are in a loss - making state. The supply of lithium resources is expected to increase in the future, while the demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily View - **Supply - side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,635 tons, a 0.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% month - on - month increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10.00% month - on - month increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 101,848 tons, a 3.62% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,849 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,071 yuan/ton, a 0.55% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 1,590 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,139 yuan/ton, a 0.85% day - on - day decrease, with a loss of 6,648 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The prices of most lithium carbonate futures contracts decreased, and the basis of most contracts increased. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 0.68% [15]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate generally increased. The production of lithium ore, including spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake lithium, also showed different trends of change. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased, while the import volume of lithium carbonate increased [17]. - **Demand - side Data**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased slightly. The production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries also showed an upward trend. The demand for ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and other products also changed to varying degrees [18][53]. - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1.48%. The inventory of smelters increased by 3.75%, the downstream inventory decreased by 1.85%, and other inventories decreased by 5.07% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,735 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 3.95%. It is expected that the market will have a narrow - range adjustment next week [5]. - Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling. Demand is close to the historical average level, and overall inventory is at a high level [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of 3.95%. The opening price on Monday was 4,930 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,735 yuan/ton [5]. - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. It is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in production scheduling [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 15.87%, a month - on - month decrease of 23.0 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 32.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.6 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 68.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 77.88%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand is close to the historical average [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, and production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock inventory days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week. The report provides price trends such as opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume data from September 1 to October 10, 2025 [13]. - **Basis and Spread**: The report presents basis trends from 2022 - 2025 and spread trends between different contracts in 2024 - 2025 [10][16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda, as well as the cost - profit and double - ton spread of the chlor - alkali industry [19][22][24][26][29]. - **Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, and maintenance volume of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 - 2025 [31][33]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream operating rate, and related real - estate and macro - economic data [36][37][40][45][48]. - **Inventory Situation**: It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide and ethylene factory inventories, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 - 2025 [50]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads from 2020 - 2025 [52]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [55]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - The main 01 contract showed a downward trend this week, and it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week. The report also provides price trends and moving average data from September 1 to October 10, 2025 [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short - term. Factors such as the stalemate in Sino - US tariff negotiations, weather in US soybean - producing areas, and the volume of imported soybeans will influence the market. The US soybean market is also in a state of oscillation, with the progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations and weather conditions being the main drivers of short - and medium - term trends [10][34]. - The soybean market will also remain range - bound. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand support the price, while the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppress the price [11][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate with a possibility of escalation, which is negative for US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating around the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the harvest situation, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the volume of imported soybeans [13]. - The volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in September, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short - term [13]. - The decline in pig - farming profits in China has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. Although the demand for soybean meal increased from August to September, the market will still oscillate due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the relatively low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertainties in the weather of US soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high volume of imported soybeans in October and the expected bumper harvest of South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [15]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The weather in US soybean - producing areas is currently normal, with a neutral or bearish outlook in the short - term [9]. - **Import Cost**: The cost of imported soybeans is expected to oscillate weakly, with a neutral or bearish outlook due to uncertainties in Sino - US tariff negotiations and US soybean weather [9]. - **Oil Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to decline in the short - term, and the oil mill's pressing volume has fallen from a high level. The oil mill's开机 rate is expected to decline from a high level, which is bullish [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has declined, and market transactions are expected to be low, with a neutral or bearish outlook [9]. - **Oil Mill Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills remains at a medium - high level. As the upstream开机 rate declines from a high level, the inventory is expected to fall from a high level, which is bullish [9]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Soybean Meal and Soybean Views and Strategies Soybean Meal - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean meal market is in a narrow - range oscillation, and it may return to an oscillating pattern in the short - term [10]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2900 (East China), with a basis of - 42, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [10]. - **Inventory**: The soybean meal inventory of oil mills is 118.92 million tons, a 4.86% decrease from last week and a 3.04% decrease from the same period last year, which is bullish [10]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [10]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing in, which is bearish [10]. - **Expectation**: The soybean meal market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short - term, influenced by US soybeans [10]. Soybeans - **Fundamentals**: US soybeans are oscillating downward. The domestic soybean market is also oscillating downward, and it will be affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and the volume of imported soybeans in the short - term [11]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 187, indicating a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [11]. - **Inventory**: The soybean inventory of oil mills is 719.91 million tons, a 3.63% increase from last week and a 14.38% increase from the same period last year, which is bearish [11]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, which is neutral [11]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds are flowing out, which is bearish [11]. - **Expectation**: The soybean market will maintain a range - bound pattern, affected by multiple factors [11]. 3.7 Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1000 - point mark in the short - term, and soybean meal is expected to oscillate weakly. The M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 2800 and 3000, and short - term range trading is recommended [17]. - **Options Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2511 contract of soybeans is expected to oscillate between 3800 and 4000, and short - term range trading is recommended [20]. - **Options Strategy**: Wait and see [20]. 3.8 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand and Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The September USDA report had little impact. The US soybean market is oscillating due to the stalemate in Sino - US trade negotiations and relatively good weather. The bumper harvest of US soybeans is gradually being realized, suppressing the market outlook [34]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: The volume of imported soybeans in October is expected to decline from a high level. The soybean inventory of oil mills is at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to decline from a high level. The oil mill's pressing volume has decreased, and the unexecuted contracts have continued to decline [37][38][42]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand for soybean meal is expected to be weak in the short - term. The pig - farming industry is in a state where the profit has declined, and the inventory of pigs is increasing slightly, while the inventory of sows is decreasing slightly [56]. 3.9 Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market has bottomed out and rebounded, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD show that the market is in a technical rebound stage but with limited upward space, and it will return to a range - bound pattern, waiting for new guidance [66]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is maintaining a range - bound oscillation, affected by US soybeans, rapeseed meal, and domestic demand expectations. Technical indicators show that the market is in a technical consolidation stage, and whether it will rebound or adjust downward remains to be seen [69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market lacks clear guidance and fluctuates following the soybean meal. It is currently in a short - term oscillatory pattern due to factors such as the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, the changing demand season, and uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations [8]. - The short - term trading strategy for rapeseed meal futures is to oscillate moderately strongly. For the single - side operation of RM2601, it is expected to oscillate around 2400, and short - term trading or waiting and seeing is recommended. The option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money put options [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues have led to a short - term reduction in exports and a tight supply in the domestic market [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain, depending on the development of China - Canada trade relations [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canada's output higher than expected. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset the impact of Ukraine's rapeseed production reduction and Russia's increase. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, supporting commodity prices [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation [11]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in October remains stable, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill crushing and inventory: The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills remains low, the rapeseed inventory in oil mills continues to decline, and the weekly rapeseed meal inventory remains flat [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal trading: Rapeseed meal futures fluctuate downward, the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium slightly expands. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [33][37]. - Aquaculture: Aquatic fish prices have slightly rebounded, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable. China's aquatic product and fish production, shellfish and shrimp - crab production, and OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports are also involved [31]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have increased, and funds have flowed in, which is bearish [8]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern after the positive factors are exhausted. Affected by the preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, it is in a short - term weak oscillatory pattern. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a low level, and the MACD oscillates downward. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound, and the future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and the movement of soybean meal [42]. 3.7 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The harvesting weather in US soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [45]. - Third important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt remains high, but refineries have recently reduced production to alleviate supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, and the weakening of crude oil prices will lead to a short - term weakening of cost support. It is expected that the asphalt futures market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support, but there is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38%. The sample enterprise output was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96%. Refineries have reduced production, which will reduce supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 34.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points; the开工 rate of construction asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt was 29%, unchanged from the previous month; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes was 30%, unchanged from the previous month. All are below the historical average levels, indicating that the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost Side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: The fundamentals are bearish; the basis is bullish as the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; inventory is neutral with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing; the disk is bearish as the MA20 is downward and the 11 - contract futures price is below the MA20; the main position is bullish as the main position is net long but the long position is decreasing. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating in the range of 3306 - 3350 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of various asphalt contracts, such as the 01 - 12 contracts, showed different degrees of decline compared to the previous values. For example, the 01 - contract price decreased by 57 yuan to 3248 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.72%. In terms of inventory, social inventory decreased by 1.31% to 1058,000 tons, factory inventory increased by 6.48% to 690,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 7.69% to 120,000 tons [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 - 2025, which helps investors understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is important for spread trading strategies [20][21]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [23][24]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [30][32]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the price dynamics in the spot market [33][34]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [35][36]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for refineries to make production decisions [38][39][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the supply situation in the market [41][42]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply capacity [46][47]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 - 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt [50][52]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical weekly 开工 rate of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is an important indicator of the production activity level [56][57]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It presents the historical trend of estimated maintenance losses from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of refinery maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the delivery and storage of futures contracts [62][63][64]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 - sample) and factory inventory (54 - sample) from 2022 - 2025, which reflects the overall inventory situation in the market [66][67]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trend of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of factories [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trend of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73][76]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in some industries [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand**: It presents the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which helps to analyze the downstream demand for asphalt [84][85][86][88][89][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt 开工 Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt 开工 rate, asphalt 开工 rate by use, and downstream 开工 situation (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt 开工 rate, road - modified asphalt 开工 rate, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt 开工 rate) from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the production activity level of the asphalt industry [93][94][96][97][98][100]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 - September 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the PVC industry is bearish [10][11]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and it is expected to increase slightly in production scheduling next week as maintenance is expected to decrease. The overall inventory is at a high level, while the current demand is close to the historical average. The cost of both calcium carbide method and ethylene method has strengthened, and the PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4704 - 4766. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8][9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of calcium carbide enterprises was 352,720 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.70%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 150,840 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%. Supply pressure increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly next week [8]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 39.21%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.55 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Different downstream sectors showed mixed trends, with the film and paste resin operating rates being higher than the historical average, while the profiles and pipes operating rates were lower. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are advantageous. Current demand is close to the historical average [9]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 622.11 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 19.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 538.3646 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month reduction in losses of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2,345.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 2.60%, lower than the historical average, which may put pressure on production scheduling [9]. - **Base Difference**: On October 10, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [12]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 383,574 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. Calcium carbide factory inventory was 300,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.96%. Ethylene factory inventory was 83,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.11%. Social inventory was 557,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.58%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 6.3 days, a month - on - month increase of 18.86% [12]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [10]. - **Expectation**: The cost of both calcium carbide and ethylene methods has strengthened. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand is close to the historical average. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends [10]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: The report presents the price trends of PVC futures contracts such as the opening price, highest price, lowest price, and closing price, as well as trading volume and open interest trends, including the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [24]. - **Basis Trends**: It shows the historical basis trends of PVC futures, reflecting the relationship between spot and futures prices [20]. - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [26]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: - **Lancoke**: It shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke from 2016 to 2025 [30]. - **Calcium Carbide**: Presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide from 2018 to 2025 [33]. - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Displays the price, production trends of liquid chlorine from 2020 to 2025, and the price and monthly production trends of raw salt from 2019 to 2025 [35]. - **Caustic Soda**: Shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, weekly production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, double - ton spread, and inventory trends of caustic soda from 2019 to 2025 [37][39]. - **PVC Supply Trends**: - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide and ethylene methods from 2018 to 2025 are presented, along with the profit trends of the two methods [41][42]. - **Production and Inventory**: Displays the daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of PVC from 2020 to 2025 [43][44]. - **Demand Trends**: - **Downstream Consumption**: Presents the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC from 2019 to 2025 [46][48]. - **Downstream Industry Operating Rates**: Shows the operating rates of PVC profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Paste Resin**: Displays the gross profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin from 2019 to 2025 [51]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: Presents the real estate investment completion amount, housing construction area, new housing construction area, commercial housing sales area, housing completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year trends from 2018 to 2025 [54][55][58]. - **Inventory**: It shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days from 2019 to 2025 [60]. - **Ethylene Method**: Presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene method, and vinyl chloride import spread from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from August 2024 to September 2025 [65].