Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental situation, and it is expected to mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to the imbalance between supply and demand [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, with a high level of cold repair in the industry. The start - up rate and production have dropped to historical lows. Downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, and real - estate terminal demand is sluggish [2]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price. The national inventory of float glass enterprises is above the 5 - year average, although it decreased by 1.10% compared to the previous week. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is rising. The main positions are net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Overall, the glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to be mainly volatile and weak in the short term [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely Benefits**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Likely Detriments**: Real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious. The market sentiment of "anti - involution" has faded [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but terminal demand is weak, and inventory has rebounded. Therefore, the glass is expected to be mainly volatile and weak [5]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased by 1.40% to 1199 yuan/ton, the spot price of large boards in Shahe remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract increased by - 12.50% to - 119 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side No specific content on the cost - side situation is provided other than the repeated mention of glass production profit. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 225, with a start - up rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period [22]. - The daily melting volume of float glass in the country is 160,200 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history, but it has stabilized and rebounded [24]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28]. - The report also mentions the need to analyze factors such as housing sales, new construction, construction, and completion areas, as well as the start - up and order status of downstream processing plants, but specific influencing content is not provided. 3.9 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national inventory of float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [43]. 3.10 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [44].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is still at a high level; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,293 yuan/ton, the basis is -93 yuan, and the futures price is higher than the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward; bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Likely to Rise**: The peak maintenance period within the year is coming, and the output is expected to decline [3]. - **Likely to Fall**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year, and the industry output is at a high level in the same period; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro policies has subsided [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.90% from the previous value; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous value; the main basis is -93 yuan, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of the heavy soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. Fundamental Analysis - Production - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash by North China ammonia-alkali method is -96.75 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China co-production method is -108.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historical low [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 85.53%, and the weekly output is 745,700 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 417,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production Capacity Change**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons [20]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and Sales Rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 103.56% [23]. - **Downstream Demand**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stabilizes; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall, affected by the "anti-involution" policy, the industry reduces production, and the daily melting volume in production continues to decline significantly [26][32]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5-year average [35]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply and demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [36].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The report anticipates that LME zinc inventory will continue to decrease, while SHFE zinc warehouse receipts will continue to increase. The zinc futures contract ZN2511 is expected to oscillate and weaken [2][21] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In July 2025, global zinc sheet production was 1.1515 million tons, and consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc sheet production was 7.9452 million tons, and consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, indicating a bullish outlook [2] - The basis was -100 with a spot price of 21,990, presenting a neutral outlook [2] - On September 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warehouse receipts increased by 2,523 tons to 55,054 tons, showing a neutral situation [2] - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating rebound trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average trending downward, suggesting a bearish outlook [2] - The main net position was long, and the long positions increased, indicating a bullish outlook [2] Futures Market Quotes - On September 22, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts across various delivery months totaled 230,483 lots, and the total open interest was 240,089 lots, with an increase of 3,214 lots [3] Spot Market Quotes - On September 22, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16,630 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingots in Shanghai was 21,990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheets in China was 4,048 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipes in Tian Tian was 4,452 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,500 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,210 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; and the price of secondary zinc oxide in Lin was 7,875 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] Inventory Statistics - From September 11 to September 22, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 144,600 tons. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 5,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 3,700 tons [5] Warehouse Receipt Report - On September 22, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 55,054 tons, an increase of 2,523 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 198 tons, and those in Tianjin increased by 2,325 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory - On September 22, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 46,825 tons, and the注销 ratio was 33.00% [7] Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 22, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities decreased by 30 yuan/ton [9] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 22, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters decreased by 40 yuan/ton [13] Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [15] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 22, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most domestic regions remained stable, with some regions showing slight increases or decreases. The import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton [17] Member Trading and Position Ranking - On September 22, in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for the zinc futures contract zn2511, the total trading volume of member futures companies was 213,834 lots, an increase of 78,464 lots; the total long position was 87,070 lots, an increase of 5,725 lots; and the total short position was 92,680 lots, an increase of 3,687 lots [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and the refineries reduced production. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - Demand: The current overall demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, and road - modified asphalt开工率 are lower than the historical average, while the modified asphalt开工率 is higher than the historical average [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit decreased by 3.00% month - on - month, and the weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit decreased by 12.97% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Basis: On September 19th, the Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Social inventory, factory inventory, and port diluted asphalt inventory are all in a state of continuous destocking [8]. - Expectation: It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3,399 - 3,443 [9]. - Influential factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, alleviating supply pressure. However, supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand: The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [9]. - Cost: Crude oil has weakened, and cost support has weakened in the short term [9]. - Inventory: Inventory remains flat [9]. - Market trend: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - Futures prices: Most contract prices showed a downward trend, such as the 01 - contract price decreased by 0.50% [16]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% month - on - month, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% month - on - month, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% month - on - month [16]. - Production and sales: The sample enterprise output decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and the sample enterprise shipment volume increased by 31.10% month - on - month [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis: The Shandong spot price was 3,520 yuan/ton on September 19th, and the 11 - contract basis was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Spread: Analyzed the spread trends of different contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12 contracts), the price trends of asphalt and crude oil, the cracking spread of crude oil, and the price - to - price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [21][24][27][31]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - Analyzed the price trends of asphalt in different regions, including Shandong, East China, and South China [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit analysis: Analyzed the profit trends of asphalt and the profit spread trends between coking and asphalt [36][39]. - Supply - side analysis: Analyzed multiple aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, Ma Rui crude oil price, Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss volume [43][45][48]. - Inventory analysis: Analyzed exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory - to - sales ratio [63][67][70]. - Import and export analysis: Analyzed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt [73][76][78]. - Demand - side analysis: Analyzed aspects such as petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (including highway construction, machinery demand, etc.), asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [79][82][85]. - Supply - demand balance sheet: Presented the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production volume, import volume, export volume, inventory, and downstream demand [105][106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Investor concerns about demand outlook are dragging down oil prices. As the summer consumption peak season ends, refineries' demand for crude oil will continue to decline, and the refinery maintenance season will further reduce demand [3]. - The EU is considering trade measures against its remaining Russian oil imports, and the next round of EU sanctions on Russia will target the oil - industry institutions in so - called "third countries" [3]. - Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, but the supply - side pressure is gradually emerging, and oil prices are under downward pressure in the medium and long term. The short - term trading range for oil prices is between 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026, with expected daily increases in global crude oil inventories of 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For crude oil 2511, the fundamentals are neutral; the basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bullish; the disk is neutral; the main positions are bullish. The short - term trading range is 480 - 490, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude oil prices will decline, with expected increases in global crude oil inventories in 2025 and 2026. "Pessimistic scenarios" may be triggered by weak macro - economy and trade or excessive supply growth, while "optimistic scenarios" may be driven by geopolitical events [5]. - A US House of Representatives delegation visited China, and China and the US expressed the need to strengthen contact and promote the healthy development of bilateral relations [5]. - The US government faces an increased threat of shutdown as the Senate rejected a temporary appropriation bill, and the Republicans may vote again on September 29 [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors are not mentioned. Bearish factors include weak institutional monthly report expectations for the future market and continued tension in US trade relations with other economies. The market is driven by a short - term reduction in geopolitical conflicts and an increased risk of trade tariff issues, with supply expected to increase after the peak season in the medium and long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures prices of various crude oils (Brent, WTI, SC, Oman) have declined, with decreases of - 1.32%, - 1.36%, - 1.03%, and - 1.63% respectively [7]. - Spot prices of various crude oils (UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman, Shengli, Dubai) have also declined, with decreases ranging from - 0.23% to - 1.07% [9]. - API crude oil inventories decreased by 3.42 million barrels in the week ending September 12, more than the expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels in the week ending September 12, far more than the expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels [3][14]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 16, WTI crude oil's main position was long, with an increase in long positions; Brent crude oil's main position was also long, with an increase in long positions [3]. - The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds also changed. For example, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 16,865 on September 16 compared to the previous period, and the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 22,593 on September 16 [17][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. NYMEX WTI crude futures closed at $62.36 per barrel, up 0.40% for the week; ICE Brent crude futures closed at $66.05 per barrel, down 0.60% for the week; Shanghai crude oil futures closed at 483.6 yuan per barrel, up 1.75% for the week [5]. - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point rate cut, which supported oil prices. However, Russia's plan to protect the national budget and OPEC +'s production - increase plan increased concerns about supply glut, causing oil prices to fall in the second half of the week [5]. - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026. OPEC +'s decision to gradually cancel the "second - round production cuts" will increase global crude oil inventories [6]. - The US and the EU are increasing sanctions on Russia's energy exports, but India's refineries are not willing to stop buying Russian crude due to rising domestic fuel demand [6]. - Sino - US trade negotiations have made some progress, and the EU's new sanctions on Russia will have a short - term emotional impact on the market. It is expected that crude oil will continue to fluctuate, and supply pressure will drag down oil prices in the absence of geopolitical stimuli [7]. - In terms of operation, trade within the range of 470 - 505 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be liquidated on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Review - Oil price trends: NYMEX WTI crude futures rose 0.40% for the week, ICE Brent crude futures fell 0.60% for the week, and Shanghai crude oil futures rose 1.75% for the week [5]. - Supply - side factors: Attacks on Russian oil ports by Ukraine may lead to a reduction of about 300,000 barrels per day in Russian refining capacity. The US plans new energy sanctions on Russia, and OPEC + is continuing its production - increase plan [5]. - Macro - factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, but there are differences within the FOMC on the rate - cut amplitude. The Fed's dot - plot median shows that it is expected to cut rates twice more this year [5]. - Market sentiment: The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil futures increased, and geopolitical tensions partly boosted the market [5]. 3.2 Related News - Citi's forecast: Brent crude prices will gradually fall to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026, and global crude oil inventories are expected to increase [6]. - Sanctions on Russia: The US Senate is seeking to increase financial pressure on Russia's energy exports, and the EU is discussing a new round of sanctions targeting Russia's oil and gas production [6]. - India's oil imports: Indian refineries are not willing to stop buying Russian crude due to rising domestic fuel demand after the monsoon season, but the volume of imports may be lower than previous peaks [6]. 3.3 Outlook - Market trends: Crude oil is expected to continue to fluctuate, and supply pressure will drag down oil prices in the absence of geopolitical stimuli [7]. - Operational suggestions: Trade within the range of 470 - 505 in the short term, and long - term long positions should be liquidated on rallies [8]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Spot prices: The prices of various crude oil varieties such as Brent Dtd, WTI, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 0.39 to 0.94 dollars, and the increase rate ranging from 0.56% to 1.43% [11]. - Inventory data: The Cushing inventory and EIA inventory have fluctuated in the past few months, with the Cushing inventory at 2356.1 million barrels as of September 12, a decrease of 29.6 million barrels from the previous period, and the EIA inventory at 41536.1 million barrels, a decrease of 928.5 million barrels from the previous period [13][14]. 3.5持仓数据 - CFTC data: As of the week of September 16, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil increased by 16,865 contracts to 98,709 contracts [5][20]. - ICE data: As of the week of September 16, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures increased by 22,593 contracts to 232,171 contracts [5][21].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （9.15 -9.19 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 甲醇周评：多空并存下，预计下周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备 货进入尾声，传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边 地区均有一定制约，后期内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以 及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底，预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装 置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有 潜在利多。预期仍好但现实大累库，回调试多。 国内甲醇现货价格 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 01 contract showed an upward trend with a weekly increase of 1.37%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly. The demand may remain sluggish, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The disk is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 01 contract opened at 4883 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 4950 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.37% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.40%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resins showed different trends, and the shipping cost is bearish. The current demand may remain sluggish [5]. - **Cost and Profit**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 30.80%. The profit of the ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 2.00%. The double - ton spread was 2449.25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.40%. Production scheduling may be under pressure [6]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Base - price Trend**: The document presents the base - price trend chart of PVC futures, but no specific analysis is provided [10]. - **Price and Volume**: The document shows the price and volume trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the net position changes of the top 5 and top 20 seats [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The document shows the spread trends of the main contracts in 2024 and 2025, such as the 1 - 9 spread and the 5 - 9 spread [16]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [19][22][24][26]. - **PVC Supply Trend**: It shows the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, as well as the production, maintenance volume, and profit trends of PVC [30][33]. - **Demand Trend**: It includes the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the profit, production, and cost of paste resin. It also involves real - estate and macro - economic indicators such as real - estate investment, construction area, and social financing scale [36][37][39][46][50]. - **Inventory**: It presents the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, and social inventory [52]. - **Ethylene Method - Related**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and relevant price spreads [54]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from 2024 to 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [57]. 3.4 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 01 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment next week [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side's production has increased, and the demand has also risen. However, considering factors such as inventory and cost, the 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9170 - 9440 [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply side's production is decreasing, while the demand side shows signs of recovery. Overall, the demand is on the rise, and the cost support is stabilizing. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51765 - 53635 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Industrial Silicon** - **Supply**: Last week, the supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 543,000 tons, a 0.74% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 174,950 tons, a 0.57% increase; major port inventory was 120,000 tons, a 0.84% increase [6]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 3,050 yuan/ton. During the wet season, the cost support has weakened [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 9170 - 9440 [6]. - **Polysilicon** - **Supply**: Last week, the production was 31,000 tons, a 0.64% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 13.92GW, a 0.28% increase from the previous week. The inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,100 yuan/ton [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand side shows continuous increases in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. Overall, the demand is recovering, and the cost support is stabilizing. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 51765 - 53635 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon**: The report provides data on prices, inventories, production, and costs of industrial silicon, including futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory changes in different regions, production volume changes, and cost - profit situations in different regions [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The report presents data on prices, inventories, production, and costs of polysilicon, such as futures closing prices, spot prices, inventory changes, production volume changes, and cost - profit situations [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - This week, the 11 - contract showed an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 3410 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 3421 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.32%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, the supply will decrease, and the cost support will weaken. The market may undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment [5][6]. Section Summaries 1. Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The 11 - contract rose this week, with an opening price of 3410 yuan/ton on Monday and a closing price of 3421 yuan/ton on Friday, a 0.32% increase [5]. - **Supply**: In June 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 239.8 million tons, a 3.5% month - on - month increase and a 12.7% year - on - year increase. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a 0.06 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The national sample enterprise shipment was 31.36 million tons, a 31.10% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production was 60.7 million tons, a 0.16% month - on - month decrease. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 69.9 million tons, a 2.95% month - on - month increase. Refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [5]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a 1.71 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a 1.69 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a 0.50 - percentage - point increase month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a 3.00% month - on - month decrease. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a 12.97% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the short - term support will weaken [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 114.6 million tons, a 2.88% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory was 65.3 million tons, a 4.53% month - on - month decrease. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 24 million tons, a 20.00% month - on - month decrease. All types of inventories continued to decline [6]. 2. Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Analysis**: The report presents the Shandong and East China basis trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [10][11]. - **Spread Analysis** - **主力合约价差**: The 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spread trends of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown [13][14]. - **沥青原油价格走势**: The price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [17]. - **原油裂解价差**: The cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 are shown [20][21]. - **沥青、原油、燃料油比价走势**: The price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented [24]. 3. Asphalt Spot Market - **各地区市场价走势**: The price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2025 are shown [27][28]. 4. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **沥青利润**: The profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [30]. - **焦化沥青利润价差走势**: The profit spread trend between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown [33][34]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **出货量**: The weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 is presented [36][37]. - **稀释沥青港口库存**: The domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown [38][39]. - **产量**: The weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [42]. - **马瑞原油价格及委内瑞拉原油月产量走势**: The price trend of Ma Rui crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 are shown [46]. - **开工率**: The weekly开工率 of asphalt from 2023 to 2025 is presented [50][51]. - **检修损失量预估**: The estimated maintenance loss volume trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [54]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **交易所仓单**: The exchange warehouse receipt trends (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [57][59]. - **社会库存和厂内库存**: The social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) trends of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 are shown [62]. - **厂内库存存货比**: The in - plant inventory - to - stock ratio trend of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is shown [65]. - **进出口情况**: The export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [67][68][71]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **石油焦产量**: The petroleum coke production trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [74]. - **表观消费量**: The apparent consumption trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 is presented [77]. - **下游需求** - **公路建设交通固定资产走势, 新增地方专项债走势, 基础建设投资完成额同比**: The trends of highway construction traffic fixed assets, new local special bonds, and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 are presented [80][81]. - **下游机械需求走势**: The sales volume trend of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trend of excavators, and the sales volume trends of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented [84][86]. - **沥青开工率** - **重交沥青开工率**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trend from 2019 to 2025 is presented [89]. - **按用途分沥青开工率**: The construction asphalt and modified asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2025 are presented [92]. - **下游开工情况**: The开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented [95][97]. - **供需平衡表**: The monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table from January 2024 to September 2025 is presented, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [100]. 5. Technical Analysis - The price and trading volume trends of the BU main contract from August 25 to September 19, 2025, are presented, along with the moving average trends of different periods (5 - period, 10 - period, 20 - period, 60 - period, 120 - period) of the closing price [103].