大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-23甲醇早报 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空并存下，预计本周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备货进入尾声， 传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边地区均有一定制约，后期 内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底， 预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港 口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有潜在利多；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为229 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周碳酸锂产量为20363吨 环比增长2 00% 高于历史同期平均水平 ， . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 。 需求端来看 ， | 环比增加0 上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96217吨 81% 上周三元材 ， . , | | | | 料样本企业库存为17545吨 | 环比增加0 09% 。 ， . | | | | | 中性 | | | | 得为 -8521元/吨 | 有所亏损 回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本 排产积极性一 | | | | 空间充足 ， | 排产动力十足 。 | | 2 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors include the rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4907 - 4969 [6][11][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Rebound of overall supply pressure, high - level inventory with slow consumption, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 76.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 328,605 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.14%, and the production of ethylene enterprises was 132,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.16%. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease, and the scheduled production will increase slightly to 39.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average [7] - **Demand side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.26%, a month - on - month increase of 0.76 percentage points, which is lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin has different changes, with some higher and some lower than the historical average [7][9] - **Cost side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 657.2513 yuan/ton, and the loss increased by 30.80% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 652.2011 yuan/ton, and the loss decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2379.25 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 2.00% month - on - month, which is lower than the historical average [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 306,239 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20%. The factory inventory of calcium carbide method was 241,039 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30%. The factory inventory of ethylene method was 65,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.81%. Social inventory was 534,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.56%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.15 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.96% [7] - **Market situation**: On September 22, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 108 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The main position was net short, and the short position increased [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of yesterday's PVC market, including various indicators such as different prices, spreads, production, inventory, and operating rates, and their changes compared with the previous period [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the basis trend of PVC futures over a long - term period, along with the market price in East China and the closing price of the main contract [16] - **Price and trading volume trend**: It presents the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract from August to September 2025 [20] - **Spread analysis**: Analyzes the spread of the main contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread in 2024 and 2025 [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental Aspects - **Calcium carbide method - Related raw materials**: It includes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method for PVC production [25][28][30][32] - **PVC supply trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, maintenance volume, and profit of PVC production by calcium carbide method and ethylene method [37][40] - **Demand trend**: Examines the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales rate, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the situation of related downstream products such as paste resin and the real - estate market and some macro - economic indicators [42][46][53] - **Inventory situation**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, factory inventory of calcium carbide method and ethylene method, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [58] - **Ethylene method - Related aspects**: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and some price spreads in the ethylene method for PVC production [60] - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [63]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 23, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The overall fundamentals are bearish, but there are also some bullish factors such as geopolitical instability and the approaching peak season for demand [4][7]. Summary by Category LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent oil price has been fluctuating. The demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season, but it is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7,150 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 20, with a premium ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural films is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic situation shows some improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The demand for downstream products such as pipes and plastic weaving is stable as they gradually enter the peak season. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,800 (0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -73, with a premium ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons (-25,000), which is neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent oil price has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7,150 (-30), the price of the 01 contract is 7,130 (-39), the basis is 20 (9), and the comprehensive PE inventory is 551,000 tons [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6,800 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6,873 (-41), the basis is -73 (41), and the comprehensive PP inventory is 551,000 tons [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, shipping survey agencies indicate that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,450, with a basis of 84, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,372, with a basis of 12, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has shifted from long to short positions [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,000 - 9,400 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions for Malaysian palm oil, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,273, with a basis of 130, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The overall view is bearish. The outer market has declined, with the 20 - day moving average acting as resistance. Although nickel ore prices are firm and nickel - iron prices have risen slightly, nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventories are falling, and new energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the decline in ternary battery installations limits nickel demand. In the medium - to - long term, the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The contract 沪镍2510 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The view is neutral to bullish. Spot stainless steel prices are flat, with firm cost lines due to stable nickel ore prices, freight rates, and rising nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel inventories are continuing to decline, with good destocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The contract 不锈钢2511 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **多空因素** - **利多因素**: "Golden September and Silver October" demand boost expectations, anti - involution policies, and cost support at 120,000 [6]. - **利空因素**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production with no new demand growth points, and a year - on - year decline in ternary battery installations [6]. **镍、不锈钢价格基本概览** | Product | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪镍主力 | 121,400 | 121,500 | - 100 | | 伦镍电 | 15,200 | 15,270 | - 70 | | 不锈钢主力 | 12,910 | 12,860 | 50 | | SMM1电解镍 | 122,700 | 122,750 | - 50 | | 1金川镍 | 123,900 | 123,950 | - 50 | | 1进口镍 | 121,850 | 121,900 | - 50 | | 镍豆 | 124,000 | 124,050 | - 50 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Wuxi) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Foshan) | 14,150 | 14,150 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Hangzhou) | 13,950 | 13,950 | 0 | | Cold - rolled coil 304*2B (Shanghai) | 14,000 | 14,000 | 0 | [11] **镍仓单、库存** - As of September 19, the上期 - exchange nickel inventory was 29,834 tons, with futures inventory at 25,843 tons, an increase of 2,334 tons and 2,314 tons respectively. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦镍 | 228,900 | 228,444 | 456 | | 沪镍 (Warehouse receipts) | 25,536 | 25,843 | - 307 | | Total inventory | 254,436 | 254,287 | 149 | [13][14] **不锈钢仓单、库存** - On September 19, the Wuxi inventory was 579,200 tons, the Foshan inventory was 288,000 tons, and the national inventory was 987,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,400 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 617,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5,800 tons. | Inventory Type | 9 - 22 | 9 - 19 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless steel warehouse receipts | 89,377 | 89,732 | - 355 | [18][19] **镍矿、镍铁价格** | Product | Grade | 9 - 22 Price | 9 - 19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni1.5% | 57 | 57 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Red - soil nickel ore CIF | Ni0.9% | 29 | 29 | 0 | USD/wet ton | | Freight (Philippines - Lianyungang) | | 11.5 | 11.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | Freight (Philippines - Tianjin Port) | | 12.5 | 12.5 | 0 | USD/ton | | High - nickel (wet ton) | 8 - 12 | 954.5 | 954.5 | 0 | Yuan/nickel point | | Low - nickel (wet ton) | Below 2 | 3,470 | 3,470 | 0 | Yuan/ton | [21] **不锈钢生产成本** | Cost Type | Price | | --- | --- | | Traditional cost | 13,178 | | Scrap steel production cost | 13,566 | | Low - nickel + pure nickel cost | 16,866 | [23] **镍进口成本测算** The imported price is converted to 122,493 yuan/ton [26].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is influenced by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. Currently, the spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season with low inventory, but after the National Day, the demand will enter the off - season. The short - term trend will be affected by news and remain volatile [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2480 - 2540 range oscillation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the peak season with low inventory, but will enter the off - season after the National Day. The short - term trend is affected by news and remains volatile [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good outlook. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the global geopolitical conflict may rise, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2620, and the basis is 92, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions have increased, and the capital has flowed in, which is bearish [9]. 3.6 Other Related Data - **Trading Volume and Price Difference**: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [20]. - **Import and Inventory**: The import volume of rapeseed in September remains stable, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continues to decline, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreases slightly. The oil extraction volume of rapeseed in oil mills fluctuates slightly [23][25][27]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The price of aquatic fish has rebounded slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA futures followed the cost side and opened lower and moved lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - The ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted on Monday, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be noted for the disk rebound [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 3.2. Daily Hints PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures opened lower and moved lower, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was general, the spot basis was weak, and individual mainstream suppliers sold goods. The September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 86 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was around 4490 - 4535. The mainstream spot basis on that day was 01 - 84 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4515, the basis of the 01 contract was - 71, and the disk was at a premium [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The PTA futures disk followed the cost side to open lower and move lower. PTA's own device restarts and reduces loads simultaneously, currently having limited impact on the market. The spot basis is running weakly. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the ethylene glycol market was weakly sorted, with general market discussions. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was weakly running, and the spot negotiation was at a premium of 88 - 97 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The spot basis weakened slightly in the afternoon, and some traders with contract gaps participated in replenishment. The focus of the ethylene glycol foreign market declined slightly [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4342, the basis of the 01 contract was 102, and the disk was at a discount [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared with the previous period [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: The port shipments before the festival were general, and the ethylene glycol port inventory increased from a low level. There will be relatively concentrated arrivals of foreign ships during the National Day holiday. Recently, the market sentiment of ethylene glycol has been mainly dragged down by the progress of new devices and the weakness of the terminal market, and the overall intention of traders to hold goods is weak. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol starting from the fourth quarter, and the disk performance is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term ethylene glycol price center will be adjusted at a low level. Follow - up attention should be paid to device and production and sales changes [7]. 3.3. Today's Attention No relevant content provided. 3.4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the PTA supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on PTA capacity, production, imports, exports, consumption, and inventory [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December (partially incomplete) 2025, including data on ethylene glycol production, imports, consumption, and port inventory [14]. Price - **Spot Price**: The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton; the spot price of paraxylene (PX) CFR China Taiwan decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton; the CCFEI price index of PTA domestic market decreased by 20 to 4512.5 yuan/ton; the CCFEI price index of ethylene glycol MEG domestic market decreased by 10 to 4335 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Futures Price**: TA01 decreased by 18 to 4286 yuan/ton, TA05 decreased by 20 to 4628 yuan/ton, etc.; EG01 decreased by 17 to 4240 yuan/ton, EG05 decreased by 23 to 4294 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. - **Basis**: TA01 basis decreased by 22 to - 71 yuan/ton, EG01 basis increased by 7 to 102 yuan/ton [15]. - **Profit**: PTA processing fee decreased by 513.896 to - 74.42 yuan/ton; naphtha MEG domestic market profit decreased by 23.03 to - 1162.89 yuan/ton, etc. [15]. Other Data The report also provides data on bottle - chip spot prices, production gross profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, as well as various spreads, inventory analysis, and start - up rates of the polyester upstream and downstream industries from multiple years [16 - 66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state where the domestic supply significantly exceeds demand. The futures price of the main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, while international urea prices are strong. However, due to the export policy not being more relaxed than expected, the overall domestic market remains in a situation of oversupply. It is predicted that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The recent urea futures price has been fluctuating weakly. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the overall inventory is at a high position. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is at a medium level, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand significantly. Although the theoretical export profit has reached a new high, the export volume has decreased due to policies and other reasons. The spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-20), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.421 million tons (+51,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the main UR contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the main urea contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. International urea prices are strong, but the export policy has not been more relaxed than expected. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR market will fluctuate today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand. The main logic lies in the marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Inventory Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | -20 | 01 Contract | 1660 | -1 | Warehouse Receipt | 7535 | -275 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | -20 | Basis | 40 | -19 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.421 million tons | +51,000 tons | | Henan Spot | 1720 | -10 | UR01 | 1660 | -1 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 957,000 tons | +70,000 tons | | FOB China | 3201 | | UR05 | 1713 | -9 | UR Port Inventory | 464,000 tons | -19,000 tons | | | | | UR09 | 1734 | -10 | | | | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | - | - | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight, the sentiment in the crude oil market weakened, with prices initially falling and then rebounding. The effect of increased production by Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries is gradually emerging, while weak demand affects the movement of goods. Saudi Arabia significantly reduced exports in July, while Kuwait and Iraq are continuously increasing production. The lack of stimulating geopolitical events is pressuring oil prices to fluctuate. It is expected that in the short - term, prices will move in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term investors should hold their positions for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in July dropped to 599,400 barrels per day, the lowest in four months. Iraq plans to restart crude oil exports from the Kurdistan region, and Kuwait's current crude oil production capacity has reached 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest in over a decade. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 22, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $68.99 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $67.82 per barrel, with a basis of $30 per barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12 decreased by 3.42 million barrels (expected decrease of 1.565 million barrels), the EIA inventory decreased by 9.285 million barrels (expected decrease of 0.857 million barrels), and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.296 million barrels. As of September 22, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bullish [3]. - **Main Positions**: As of September 16, the main positions of WTI and Brent crude oil were long, and the number of long positions increased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term prices will move in the range of 475 - 485, and long - term investors should hold their positions for observation [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Saudi Arabia's new defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change its energy relationship with India. India will continue to buy Saudi oil, and Saudi Arabia is strengthening security through alliances without sacrificing business relationships. Saudi Arabia's daily oil sales to India in July were slightly over 600,000 barrels [5]. - Iraq plans to restart the export of crude oil from the Kurdistan region to Turkey through pipelines, subject to cabinet approval, and expects to resume exports within 48 hours [5]. - Oil prices were basically stable after a slight decline last week. Traders are weighing the impact of EU sanctions on Russian oil supplies and Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. Since early August, oil prices have been fluctuating within a $5 - per - barrel range, with the market balancing between the prediction of a possible supply surplus at the end of the year and geopolitical risks [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Focus - **Likely Bullish Factors**: The US imposes secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; the China - US tariff exemption period is extended again; the Middle - East situation deteriorates [6]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future; the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short - term, geopolitical conflicts have decreased, and the risk of trade tariffs has increased. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: For Brent crude oil, the settlement price dropped from $66.04 to $65.97, a decrease of 0.11%. For WTI crude oil, it dropped from $62.40 to $62.28, a decrease of 0.19%. For SC crude oil, it dropped from 491.2 to 484.2, a decrease of 1.43%. For Oman crude oil, it dropped from $69.43 to $68.93, a decrease of 0.72% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil, including UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil, all decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.04% for Dubai crude oil [9]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position increased by 16,865 to 98,709 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 16, the net long position increased by 22,593 to 232,171 [20].