1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, geopolitical events supported the fuel oil price to fluctuate upwards. The high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2,737 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 8.52%, and the low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3,187 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 4.59% [5] - The spot price spread of Asian low - sulfur fuel oil has risen to the highest premium level in more than four months. Demand warmed up slightly after the year - end holidays, and bunkering activities are expected to be stronger before the Lunar New Year in February. However, sufficient arbitrage cargoes from the West will pressure the market fundamentals. The volume of low - sulfur fuel oil arbitrage cargoes arriving in Singapore in January is expected to rebound, and the inflow of cargoes will increase the regional inventory in January and February [5] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market fluctuates within a range under stable bunker demand and sufficient immediate supply. Seasonal demand shortage in the power generation industry may suppress the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market [5] - International crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate slightly upwards. Geopolitical events may continue to support the fuel oil price to fluctuate upwards. Operation suggestions: trade high - sulfur fuel oil in the 2,650 - 2,850 range and low - sulfur fuel oil in the 3,100 - 3,300 range in the short term [5] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - ly Views - Geopolitical events supported fuel oil prices to rise. High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices increased by 8.52% and 4.59% respectively. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil spot spread reached a four - month high. Downstream demand warmed up, but Western arbitrage cargoes will pressure the market. The high - sulfur fuel oil market fluctuates within a range, and the power generation demand shortage suppresses the market. International crude oil prices may rise slightly, and operation suggestions are given [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures prices**: The FU main contract price rose from 2,463 to 2,523, an increase of 2.44%, and the LU main contract price rose from 2,931 to 3,066, an increase of 4.61% [6] - **Spot prices**: Among various spot products, the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.43%, while the prices of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil, Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil, Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil, and Singapore diesel decreased by - 0.26%, - 1.34%, - 0.36%, and - 0.85% respectively. The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged [7] 3.3 Fundamental Data - The report presents charts of Singapore fuel oil consumption, China fuel oil consumption, and Shandong fuel oil coking gross margin, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [8][9][10] 3.4 Inventory Data - In Singapore, from November 12, 2025, to January 21, 2026, the fuel oil inventory showed fluctuations. For example, on November 19, 2025, the inventory increased by 2570,000 barrels, and on November 26, 2025, it decreased by 2850,000 barrels [11] - The report also includes a Singapore fuel oil inventory season chart and a Zhoushan Port fuel oil inventory trend chart, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [12][13] 3.5 Spread Data - The report shows a chart of the high - low sulfur futures spread, but lacks specific data descriptions in the text [15]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (1.19-1.23) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 回顾与要闻 上周，原油震荡运行，尾盘走高。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.28美元，周涨3.48%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 65.44美元，周涨1.93%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至449.8元/桶，周涨2.51%。周内前期，伊朗通过镇压平息了抗议活动，此前特朗普推迟军 事行动的发言也降低了美国军事打击这一主要产油国并扰乱其供应的风险，投资者对美伊局势持观望态度导致油价承压。除地缘局势外，供应 方面，哈萨克斯坦最大油田因电力故障停产，供应减少支撑油价，而对委内瑞拉原油封锁仍在继续，美方已 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Affected by the overnight sharp rise in crude oil, PTA futures fluctuated upward yesterday, but the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light and the spot basis was weak. As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester production cuts are expanding, and PTA supply and demand are accumulating. However, recent capital attention to PTA has increased, with significant position - building and price increases in the past two days, and the PTA processing margin has improved. Under the supply - demand game between PX and PTA, attention should be paid to the unplanned increase in the PTA supply side in the later stage [5]. - MEG: On Wednesday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted, and the basis was stable. The intraday ethylene glycol futures showed a range adjustment, with average buying interest in the market. The negotiation volume of recent goods decreased, and some traders were actively selling. In the short term, the ethylene glycol price center is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the commodity and cost trends. Also, as the ethylene glycol price platform rises, be vigilant about the return of the operating load of existing plants [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) No relevant content provided. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) No relevant content provided. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) No relevant content provided. 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) PTA - **Price and Basis**: Spot price is 5250 yuan/ton, 05 - contract basis is - 120, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a bearish signal. The price negotiation range is 5160 - 5300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream spot basis yesterday was 05 - 80 [5][6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.62 days, a 0.02 - day increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish [6]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [6]. MEG - **Price and Basis**: The price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and adjusted on Wednesday, and the basis was stable. The intraday futures showed a range adjustment, with average buying interest. The recent goods were mainly traded, and the negotiation volume of February goods decreased. The price of recent overseas shipments was around 458 - 464 US dollars/ton, and the price of February shipments was around 468 US dollars/ton. The spot price is 3843 yuan/ton, 05 - contract basis is - 127, and the futures price is at a premium, showing a bearish signal [7][8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 74.1 tons, a 0.8 - ton increase compared to the previous period, which is bearish [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Position Analysis**: The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - **PX**: The PX supply - demand balance table shows production, import, demand, inventory changes, and other data from September 2025 to June 2026, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and balance situation of PX during this period [13]. - **PTA**: The PTA supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, consumption, and surplus data from October 2025 to September 2026, as well as year - on - year and cumulative changes in production and consumption [14]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol supply - demand balance table shows production, import, consumption, and surplus data from October 2025 to September 2026, as well as year - on - year changes in production, import, and consumption [15]. Price and Profit Data - **Price Changes**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have changed to varying degrees from January 27 to January 28, 2026 [16]. - **Profit Changes**: The processing margins and profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers have also changed, including PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different raw materials, and polyester fiber production margins [16]. Other Data and Charts - **PET Bottle Chip**: Data on bottle chip spot prices, production margins, operating rates, capacity utilization, and inventory are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [19][20][22][25]. - **Price Spreads**: Data on PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [28][34][41]. - **Inventory Analysis**: Data on the inventory of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers are provided, showing their trends from 2021 to 2026 [44][48]. - **Operating Rates**: Data on the operating rates of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [55][59]. - **Profit Analysis**: Data on the production margins of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers are provided, showing their trends from 2022 to 2026 [62][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No clear core view is presented. The report mainly provides data on commodity options, including option quotes, positions, PCR ratios, daily selections, and expiring options. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Quotes - **Call Options**: Copper had the highest daily increase of 164.39%, followed by gold at 81.46% and ferrosilicon at 72.04%. The lowest increase was for log at 35.85% [1]. - **Put Options**: Live pigs had the highest daily increase of 33.72%, followed by polysilicon at 31.10% and eggs at 21.71%. The lowest increase was for p - xylene at 4.75% [1]. Option Positions - **Call Options**: The largest daily change in position was for glass with 35,040, followed by rebar with 10,152 and iron ore with 9,601 [2]. - **Put Options**: The largest daily change in position was for glass with 19,878, followed by soda ash with 9,182 and silver with 8,037 [2]. Option Position Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High PCR Varieties**: Silver had the highest PCR of 1.6041, followed by apples at 1.4721 and propylene at 1.3336 [5]. - **Low PCR Varieties**: Alumina had the lowest PCR of 0.2334, followed by live pigs at 0.2612 and red dates at 0.3007 [5]. Option Volume Put - Call Ratio (PCR) - **High PCR Varieties**: Propylene had the highest PCR of 1.3497 [6]. - **Low PCR Varieties**: Lead had the lowest PCR of 0.0952, followed by palladium at 0.1396 and manganese silicon at 0.1611 [6]. Daily Selections - **Call Options**: Selected varieties included rapeseed oil, plastic, polypropylene, etc., with a trend of 55 for all [7]. - **Put Options**: Selected varieties included live pigs, eggs, lead, etc., with trends ranging from - 55 to 11 [7]. Expiring Options - **Call Option**: The expiring option for crude oil (sc2603C470) had 3 days remaining, with an option closing price of 11.5, a target settlement price of 467.0. The break - even target price was 501.5 (7.39% increase), and for the option to double, the target price was 533.0 (14.13% increase) [8]. - **Put Option**: The expiring put option for crude oil (sc2603P465) had 3 days remaining, with an option closing price of 5.75, a target settlement price of 467.0. The break - even target price was 439.25 (-5.94% decrease), and for the option to double, the target price was 413.5 (-11.46% decrease) [8].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Outlook**: Under the expectation of a bumper soybean harvest in South America, soybean meal is in a weak and volatile state. The market is influenced by factors such as the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, Sino - US trade agreements, and domestic supply and demand [1][10]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, it will maintain a range - bound pattern. The end - of - year demand peak and spot price premium support the futures price, but news is mixed. The long - term trend depends on the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements and the weather in South American soybean - growing areas [10]. - **Soybeans**: Domestically, soybeans are also in a range - bound state. The spot price is strong, and short - term demand is good, but the impact of Sino - US trade agreements and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans limit the upward space [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Tips No content provided in the given text. 3.2 Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations have reached a preliminary agreement, which is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. - Domestic imported soybean arrivals will continue to decline in the first quarter, and soybean meal will return to a range - bound state. - Low pig - breeding profits lead to low expectations for pig replenishment, but soybean meal demand in January is good, and the price is expected to be supported [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Soybean Meal**: - **Positive Factors**: Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; domestic soybean meal inventory in oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in South American soybean - growing area weather. - **Negative Factors**: The total amount of imported soybeans arriving in January remains relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - **Soybeans**: - **Positive Factors**: Rising imported soybean costs support the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports prices. - **Negative Factors**: The Sino - US trade agreement may lead to an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans; the increase in domestic new - season soybean production suppresses price expectations [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2016 to 2025, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply generally show an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuates [22]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, US soybean planting area, yield, and output have changed slightly, and the期末库存 and new - bean exports also show certain trends [23]. - **US Soybean Planting and Growth Progress**: In 2024, the US soybean planting, growth, and harvesting progress are compared with the previous year and the five - year average, showing different progress rates at different times [24][25][26]. - **Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: In 2024/25 and 2025/26, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average [27][28][29][30][31]. 3.5 Position Data No content provided in the given text. 3.6 Soybean and Soybean Meal Fundamentals (Supply - Demand Inventory Structure) - **US Soybean Market**: The January USDA report has a slightly negative impact. US soybeans are in a weak and volatile state due to the expected increase in Brazilian soybean output. The weather in South American soybean - growing areas and the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements affect the market [35]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain**: - **Imported Soybean Arrivals**: The arrivals of imported soybeans are at a low level at the beginning of the year, and the year - on - year figure has recently decreased [38]. - **Oil Mill Pressing and Inventory**: Oil mill soybean inventory is at a high level, and soybean meal inventory has declined from a high level. The soybean crushing volume has returned to a high level, and the soybean meal output in December increased year - on - year [39][40]. - **Soybean Meal Transaction**: The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have declined from a high level, and the备货 demand is expected to remain good [42]. - **Pig - Breeding Inventory**: Pig inventory has increased slightly year - on - year, sow inventory has decreased year - on - year and slightly month - on - month. Pig prices have fluctuated slightly recently, and piglet prices have remained weak [48][50]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - **Soybeans**: Futures are oscillating upwards. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical adjustment stage, and the future trend depends on new guidance [66]. - **Soybean Meal**: Futures are bottoming out and rebounding. KDJ and MACD indicators show that the market is in a technical rebound stage, and the future trend depends on US soybeans and new guidance [69]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing areas, the implementation of Sino - US trade agreements, and the arrival of imported soybeans in China and the operation of oil mills [71]. - **Second - Most Important**: Domestic soybean meal demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and downstream purchases [72]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors and the situations of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts [72]. 4. Trading Strategies - **Soybean Meal**: - **Futures**: US soybeans will fluctuate below the 1100 mark in the short - term, and soybean meal will maintain a range - bound pattern. The M2605 contract will fluctuate between 2700 and 2900 in the short - term, and short - term range trading is recommended. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [17][19]. - **Soybeans**: - **Futures**: The A2605 contract of soybeans will fluctuate between 4300 and 4500, and short - term range trading is recommended. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose 0.9 percentage points to 50.1%, entering the expansion range, which is bullish. The spot price shows a discount to the futures, and the inventory has increased, which is neutral. The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average rising, and the main positions are net long but with long positions decreasing, both being bullish. Geopolitical disturbances remain, and copper prices have reached a new high and are currently fluctuating at a high level, so attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. Key Points by Directory Daily View - The supply side of copper has disturbances and smelting enterprises have production - reducing actions. The scrap copper policy is relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI is 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. - The spot price is 100870 with a basis of -470, showing a discount to the futures, which is neutral [3]. - On January 23, copper inventory increased by 3450 to 171700 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 12422 tons to 225937 tons compared with last week, which is neutral [3]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is rising, which is bullish [3]. - The main positions are net long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [3]. - Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the copper price has reached a new high and is currently fluctuating at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: The US comprehensive tariff exceeds expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic. High copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [19]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, import is 3730000 tons, export is 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [21]. Other Information - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the domestic refinery asphalt production plan for February 2026 is 1.023 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples decreased, and the sample enterprise output decreased, while the device maintenance volume increased. Next week, the supply pressure may increase. The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level. The cost side shows that the daily asphalt processing profit increased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit decreased. The crude oil price is strong, which is expected to support the price in the short term. The overall expectation is that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2603 contract oscillating in the range of 3450 - 3506 [7][8]. - The bullish factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support. The bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthening expectation of the economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In February 2026, domestic refinery asphalt production is planned to be 1.023 million tons, a 3.30% month - on - month decrease. This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 28.5235%, a 0.72 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. The sample enterprise output is 476,000 tons, a 2.45% month - on - month decrease, and the device maintenance volume is estimated to be 1.004 million tons, a 4.58% month - on - month increase. Next week, the supply pressure may increase [7]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 is 26.8%, a 0.01 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the construction asphalt开工率 is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 is 6.3119%, a 0.53 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the road - modified asphalt开工率 is 14%, a 1.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 is 20%, a 1.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is 104.92 yuan/ton, a 28.80% month - on - month increase. The weekly Shandong refinery delayed coking profit is 88.7629 yuan/ton, a 2.34% month - on - month decrease. The asphalt processing profit increases, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profit decreases. The crude oil price is strong, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [8]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the Shandong spot price is 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 03 contract is - 268 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 862,000 tons, a 5.77% month - on - month increase; the in - factory inventory is 609,000 tons, a 2.09% month - on - month decrease; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 440,000 tons, a 6.38% month - on - month decrease [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 03 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, changing from short to long [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's recent production plan has been reduced, reducing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish. The inventory continues to decline. The crude oil price is strong, and the cost support strengthens in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2603 contract oscillating in the range of 3450 - 3506 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2026 [19]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2026 [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 to 2026 [33][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in East China and Shandong from 2020 to 2026 [36][37]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical asphalt profit trends from 2019 to 2026 [39][40]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2026 [42][43][44]. - **Supply Side** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [48][49]. - **Output**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [51][53]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2026 [54][56]. - **Refinery Asphalt Output**: It shows the historical refinery asphalt output trends from 2019 to 2025 [57][59]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: It presents the historical weekly capacity utilization rate trends of asphalt from 2023 to 2026 [60][61]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2026 [63][64]. - **Inventory** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [66][67]. - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [70][71]. - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2026 [73][74]. - **Import and Export Situation** - **Export and Import Trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [76][77]. - **South Korean Asphalt Import Spread Trend**: It presents the historical trends of the South Korean asphalt import spread from 2020 to 2026 [80][81]. - **Demand Side** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: It shows the historical petroleum coke output trends from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption trends from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 [90]. - **Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: It shows the historical year - on - year trends of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工率** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: It shows the historical heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends from 2019 to 2026 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: It presents the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [100]. - **Downstream开工率**: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, shoe - material TPR, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane from 2021 to 2026 [101][102][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from 2024 to 2026, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - factory inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 6、预期：由地缘政治风险和区域基本面推动，市场参与者表示，市场供应和贸易流或存在不确定性，包括俄罗 斯货量的影响，以及美国对委内瑞拉原油采取行动后重质含硫油供应情况的重组。油价波动极大，联动燃油高位 波动，投资者谨慎操作。FU2603：2900-2960区间运行，LU2603：3330-3400区间运行 1、基本面：贸易消息人士表示，尽管预计2月从西方运往新加坡的低硫燃料油套利船货量将维持高位，但高昂的 运费正在抑制从欧洲向亚洲运输的套利经济性；在欧洲市场，较窄的高低硫价差正鼓励贸易商将低硫燃料油产品 混入高 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年12月PVC产量为213.7356万吨，环比增加2.79%；本周样本企业产 能利用率为78.74%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.465万吨，环比增加0.03%,乙烯法 企业产量13.743万吨，环比减少3.86%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排 产少量增加。 利多：供应复产，电石，乙烯成本支撑；出口利好。 利空：总体供应压力反弹；库存持续高位，消耗缓慢；内外需疲弱。 主要逻辑：供应总体压力强势，国内需求复苏不畅。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.86%，环比增加.950个百分点，高于 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market has a bearish fundamental outlook, with supply remaining at a high level despite a reduction in production schedules, demand showing a slight recovery, and cost support increasing. The 2605 contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8805 - 9045 [6]. - The polysilicon market has a mixed outlook. Supply production schedules continue to decrease, demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support stabilizes. The 2605 contract of polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48165 - 50505 [9]. - The main bullish factors are rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 2,284 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 64.02%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,859.7 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous week. Cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 275 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 210,300 tons, a 1.31% decrease; and main port inventory was 137,000 tons, unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. 2. Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease from the previous week. The planned production for January is 107,800 tons [9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.86 GW, a 0.27% increase. The inventory was 267,800 tons, an 8.07% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production of battery cells and components shows a downward trend in some periods, with battery cells in a loss - making state and components in a profitable state [9]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,650 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,850 yuan/ton [9]. - **Basis**: On January 29, the price of N - type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,165 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, changing from long to short [9]. 3. Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and different futures contracts are provided, along with their price changes and price differences [15]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory are presented, including their changes [15]. - **Production/Operating Rate**: Information on weekly sample enterprise production, production in different regions, and operating rates is given [15]. 4. Polysilicon Market Overview - **Price**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and polysilicon materials are provided, along with their price changes [17]. - **Inventory**: Data on weekly silicon wafer inventory, photovoltaic cell inventory, and polysilicon total inventory are presented, including their changes [17]. - **Production**: Information on weekly silicon wafer production, photovoltaic cell production, and polysilicon production is given [17]. Other Market - Related Information - **Price and Cost Trends**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, the disk price trends of polysilicon, the inventory trends of industrial silicon, the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon, the cost trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, and the supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon on a weekly and monthly basis [19][22][25][29][37][41][44]. - **Downstream Market Trends**: It also includes the price and production trends of organic silicon DMC, the price trends of organic silicon downstream products, the import - export and inventory trends of organic silicon, the price, supply, inventory, and production trends of aluminum alloy, and the fundamental, supply - demand balance, silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component, photovoltaic accessory, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends of polysilicon [47][49][52][56][59][64][67][70][76][79][82][85][87].