Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. It is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the uncertainty of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it will maintain the range - bound pattern [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures rise and then fall, and the spot price fluctuates accordingly. The spot premium remains at a relatively high level [18]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract rebounds from a low level [20]. - The arrival of imported rapeseed increased slightly in December, and the import cost is disturbed by the tariff expectation [23]. - The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remains at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains zero [25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish fluctuates slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remains stable [35]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is affected by soybean meal, technical factors, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The overall outlook is neutral, but the short - term trend is affected by multiple factors [9]. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues affect short - term exports and reduce the domestic supply expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. With the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, Sino - Canadian trade relations are variable, and the policy of imposing additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed imports is yet to be determined [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal enters the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still variable, and there is a possibility of reconciliation [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on the domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 30th to January 9th, the trading data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are as follows: the trading volume of soybean meal ranges from 8.1 to 48.69 million tons, and the trading volume of rapeseed meal is mostly 0, with only 0.8 million tons on January 8th. The average trading price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates from 584 to 666 [13]. - From December 30th to January 9th, the rapeseed meal futures price of the main 2605 contract ranges from 2338 to 2419, and the rapeseed meal futures price of the main 2609 contract ranges from 2407 to 2465. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranges from 2520 to 2570 [15]. - From December 29th to January 8th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts are 0. On January 9th, there are 84 warehouse receipts, an increase of 84 compared with the previous day [17]. 5. Position Data - No information provided

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为44.02%，环比增加.080个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开 工率为30.22%，环比增加.439个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为35.4%，环比减少 0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为66.43%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下 游糊树脂开工率为81.53%，环比增加0.780个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC 出口价格价格不占优势；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-633.67元/吨，亏损环比减少11.00%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润 为-192.09元/吨，亏损环比减少31 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased but remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8595 - 8835 [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows some recovery but may be weak later, cost support has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50050 - 52550 [10]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level of 302,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss - making state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons with a production profit of 2,100 yuan/ton, and its comprehensive operating rate is 64.23%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 68,200 tons [4]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,794.9 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry season [4]. - Basis: On January 9th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 485 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase from the previous week; major port inventory is 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous week [4]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is above MA20 [4]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [4]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52 GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in January is 45.2 GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, battery cell production was 46.76 GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of battery cell export factories was 8.92 GW, a 3.36% increase from the previous week. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule in January is 39.36 GW, a 15.82% decrease from the previous month. In December, component production was 38.7 GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month. It is expected that component production in January will be 32.47 GW, a 16.09% decrease from the previous month. Domestic monthly inventory is 24.76 GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month, and European monthly inventory is 31.3 GW, a 5.43% decrease from the previous month. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On January 9th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 3,700 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [10]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory is 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a historical high [10]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract is below MA20 [10]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing price: The prices of different contracts have different changes, with the 05 contract rising by 2.11% [16]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts has different changes, with the 05 contract decreasing by 27.07% [16]. - Some contract spreads: The spread between the near - month contract and the first - consecutive contract has decreased by 94.32% [16]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of registered warehouse receipts has increased by 0.89% [16]. - Organic silicon and aluminum alloy related data: There are changes in production, inventory, price, and profit of organic silicon and aluminum alloy [16]. Polysilicon - Futures closing price: The prices of different contracts have decreased, with the 05 contract decreasing by 4.31% [18]. - Basis: The basis of different contracts has different changes, with the 05 contract increasing by 95.77% [18]. - Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component related data: There are changes in production, inventory, price, and profit of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [18]. 3. Other Aspects - There are also various charts and data analysis on price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance sheets of industrial silicon, as well as the downstream situation of industrial silicon including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [20][26][30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the results of China - Canada trade relations. It is in a state of shock and decline. In the short - term, it will maintain a shock pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. However, the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the market is also affected by the soybean meal market [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Prompt - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the demand side is gradually decreasing, suppressing the market expectation. The Canadian rapeseed harvest season has arrived, but due to China - Canada trade issues, short - term exports are expected to decrease [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The future of China - Canada trade relations is uncertain, and the policy of additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed imports is to be determined [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada, where the output is higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, which still supports commodities [10]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and additional import deposit on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [11]. - Bearish factors: Domestic aquaculture demand has entered the seasonal off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and there is a possibility of reconciliation [11]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Rapeseed arrival: In December, the arrival of imported rapeseed increased slightly, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [19]. - Oil mill situation: The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remained at zero, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories were at low levels [21][23]. - Rapeseed meal transaction: Not provided in the report - Aquaculture situation: Aquatic fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable. The production of Chinese aquatic products, fish, shellfish, and shrimp and crabs is mentioned, and the OECD's forecast of China's fish production and imports is also provided [25][27][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Viewpoints and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal is in a state of shock and decline, affected by soybean meal and technical shock adjustment. The spot demand is in the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. In the short - term, it will maintain a shock pattern due to the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations [8]. - Basis: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is 182, showing a premium over the futures, which is bullish [8]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons, the same as last week, and a 100% decrease compared with the same period last year, which is bullish [8]. - Disk: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upward, showing a neutral trend [8]. - Main position: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish trend [8]. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal is affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the uncertainty of China - Canada trade relations, showing a weak shock. In the short - term, it will maintain a shock pattern, and the follow - up development should be concerned [8]. 3.7 Rapeseed Meal Trading Strategies - Futures: In the short - term, it will return to the range shock. The RM2605 contract will fluctuate between 2200 and 2400 in the short - term. It is recommended to trade in the range or wait and see [13]. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13]. 3.8 Technical Analysis - Affected by the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, rapeseed meal is in a state of shock and decline. The KDJ indicator crosses at a high position, and the MACD is rising from a low position. In the short - term, it is in a technical shock adjustment stage, and the future trend depends on the rapeseed import policy and the soybean meal market [42]. 3.9 Next Week's Concerns - Most important: The growth and harvest weather conditions in South American soybean producing areas, the export of Canadian rapeseed and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [45]. - Second important: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil mill rapeseed meal inventory and downstream procurement [45]. - Less important: Macroeconomic factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon: This week, the 05 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, the supply - side production scheduling will decrease but remain at a high level, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the futures market will likely experience a bullish sideways adjustment [4][5]. - Polysilicon: This week, the 05 contract also declined. It is predicted that next week, the supply - side production scheduling will continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, cost support will stabilize, and the futures market will probably have a neutral sideways adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The 05 contract opened at 8855 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8715 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [4]. - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 43,400 tons, a 5.28% decrease. Different regions had varying changes in the start - up rate, and it is expected that the monthly start - up rate will be 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase. Different downstream sectors had different performance in demand, inventory, and profit [5]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Price**: The 05 contract opened at 58,345 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 51,300 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly decline of 12.07% [7]. - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease. The predicted production scheduling for January is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [7]. - **Demand**: Different downstream sectors such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components had different trends in production, inventory, and profit. The overall demand showed some recovery but may be weak later [7][8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 16,400 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread**: The report presents the historical trends of the SI main contract basis and the price spread between East China 421 and 553 silicon [16]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory [19][20]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It displays the historical trends of SMM sample enterprise weekly production, monthly production by specification, and start - up rate [23][24][26]. - **Cost**: It shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 silicon in different regions such as Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [30][31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, showing the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon [34][37]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, cost - profit, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and other downstream products [40][42][45]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy, as well as its relationship with the automotive industry [48][51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the price, cost, supply - demand balance, and trends of downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the polysilicon industry [56][59][62]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - For the SI main contract, this week, it showed a downward trend. The report provides price and volume data from December 5, 2025, to January 9, 2026, along with multiple - period moving averages of the closing price. It is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish sideways adjustment [78][79]. - For the PS main contract, this week, it also declined. It is predicted that next week, the market will probably have a narrow - range sideways adjustment [80][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain volatile in the short - term, influenced by factors such as the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the weather in soybean - growing regions [10][13]. - The soybean market is also in a state of shock, with the price affected by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand [11]. - The short - to medium - term trends of the US soybean futures market are mainly driven by the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement [35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Tips - The soybean meal market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the demand for soybean meal. It is expected to remain volatile [10][13]. - The soybean market is influenced by China's soybean procurement, South American soybean production, and domestic supply and demand, also in a state of shock [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in the first quarter, and the soybean meal market will return to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits leads to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for soybean meal in January remains strong, supporting the price [13]. - The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a relatively high level, and the soybean meal market will maintain range - bound oscillation, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1 Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather in South American soybean - growing regions [14]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in January [14]. - With normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a high yield [14]. 3.3.3 Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The increase in the cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market [15]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [15]. 3.3.4 Bearish Factors for Soybeans - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation leads to an increase in China's procurement of US soybeans [15]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of beans [15]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Weather**: The short - term weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions is normal, which is bearish. In the future, it is expected to be good, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Import Cost**: The US soybean price remains volatile. Affected by China's procurement of US soybeans and the expected high yield of South American soybeans, the import cost is expected to be weakly volatile, with a neutral or bearish impact [9]. - **Oil - Mill Pressing**: The demand for soybean meal has improved in the short term, but the oil - mill pressing volume has decreased from a high level. The demand is expected to continue to rise in the short term, and the oil - mill operation is expected to remain at a relatively high level, with a bearish impact [9]. - **Transaction**: The enthusiasm for downstream long - term stockpiling has increased, and the market transaction is expected to continue to rise, with a neutral or bullish impact [9]. - **Oil - Mill Inventory**: The oil - mill soybean meal inventory remains at a high level. With the upstream operation remaining at a relatively high level, the inventory is expected to decline from a high level, with a bullish impact [9]. 3.5 Position Data - For soybean meal, the main short positions have increased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bearish [10]. - For soybeans, the main long positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [11]. 3.6 Foreign Soybean Supply and Demand Situation - The impact of the December USDA report is relatively neutral. The US soybean market is weakly volatile in the short term, affected by the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The high yield of US soybeans and the good planting weather in Brazil suppress the market [35]. - The Fed's interest rate cut in December is a short - term positive for commodities. The US soybean futures market will maintain oscillation in the short term, and the planting weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement are the main drivers of the short - to medium - term trends [35]. - The market focus is on the changes in the planting and growing weather in South American soybean - growing regions and the implementation of the China - US trade negotiation agreement. The US soybean market may maintain oscillation above the 1000 - point mark in the short term, awaiting further guidance [35]. 3.7 Domestic Soybean Meal Industry Chain 3.7.1 Imported Soybean Arrival The arrival volume of imported soybeans in December increased slightly, with an overall year - on - year increase [38]. 3.7.2 Oil - Mill Pressing and Inventory - The oil - mill soybean inventory has declined from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remains at a high level [39]. - The oil - mill soybean crushing volume has declined from a high level, and the soybean meal production in November increased year - on - year [41]. 3.7.3 Soybean Meal Transaction The domestic mid - and downstream procurement has rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remains at a relatively high level [47]. 3.7.4 Pig - Farming Inventory - The pig inventory is on the rise, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year, and it has declined slightly month - on - month [49]. - The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remains weak [51]. 3.8 Market Structure of Meal Products - The soybean meal futures market remains volatile, the spot market is relatively strong, and the spot premium remains at a high level [60]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference between the 2605 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal has rebounded from a low level [62]. 3.9 Technical Analysis 3.9.1 Soybean Technical Analysis - The soybean futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the US soybean trend and the relatively strong domestic soybean spot market [67]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term technical indicators have entered a stage of oscillatory consolidation. The high position of the indicators limits the further upward space [67]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the upward trend can continue remains to be observed [67]. 3.9.2 Soybean Meal Technical Analysis - The soybean meal futures market has risen and then fallen, affected by the uncertainty in the implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the short - term increase in domestic demand [69]. - The KDJ indicator has declined from a high level, and the short - term has entered a technical oscillatory consolidation stage. The medium - to high position of the indicators limits the rebound space [69]. - The MACD has oscillated and rebounded at a low level, and the short - term has entered a technical rebound stage, but the red energy has narrowed. Whether the rebound can continue remains to be observed [69]. 3.10 Next Week's Focus Points - The most important factors are the growth and harvesting weather in Brazilian soybean - growing regions, the implementation of the China - US trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [72]. - The secondary important factors are the domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [73]. - Other important factors include macro - economic factors and the conflicts in Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel and ore generally showed an upward trend, with iron ore performing better than finished steel. After the New - Year holiday, the market's optimism about macro - policies increased, especially the "Two New Policies" driving the overall rise of the black - series. The increase in hot metal production and steel mill profits led to high expectations for steel mill restocking, making iron ore the strongest performer. However, the current rise is still a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with no substantial improvement in the fundamental situation. The apparent demand has dropped significantly compared to before the holiday, indicating a seasonal off - peak season. Therefore, the report is not optimistic about the sustained strength of prices. It is recommended to maintain a view of weakening in a volatile market, focusing on the accumulation of steel social inventory and the intensity of steel mill restocking of iron ore [64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 1.1 One - Week Data Changes - PB powder price increased from 802 yuan/wet ton to 822 yuan/wet ton, a rise of 20 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder price rose from 846 yuan/wet ton to 857 yuan/wet ton, an increase of 11 yuan/wet ton. - PB powder's spot landing profit increased from 10.46 yuan/wet ton to 14.45 yuan/wet ton, a gain of 3.99 yuan/wet ton; Bar - mixed powder's spot landing profit decreased from 29.15 yuan/wet ton to 8.94 yuan/wet ton, a drop of 20.21 yuan/wet ton. - Australia's shipping volume to China decreased from 1802.3 tons to 1553.8 tons, a reduction of 248.5 tons; Brazil's shipping volume decreased from 944 tons to 792.5 tons, a decline of 151.5 tons. - Imported iron ore port inventory increased from 16721.79 tons to 17044.44 tons, a rise of 322.65 tons; Imported iron ore arrival volume increased from 2727.8 tons to 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons. - Imported iron ore port clearance volume decreased from 340.21 tons to 336.96 tons, a drop of 3.25 tons; Iron ore port daily trading volume increased from 61.8 tons to 93.7 tons, a rise of 31.9 tons. - Average daily hot metal production increased from 227.43 tons to 229.5 tons, a gain of 2.07 tons; Steel mill profitability decreased from 38.1% to 37.66%, a decline of 0.44 percentage points [6] Other aspects - Also analyzed iron ore port spot prices, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipping volume, iron ore port and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival and clearance volume, steel enterprise production, iron ore port average daily trading volume, and steel mill average daily hot metal [8][13][15] 2. Market Current Situation Analysis 2.1 One - Week Data Changes - Shanghai rebar price decreased from 3300 yuan/ton to 3290 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton; Shanghai hot - rolled coil price remained stable at 3270 yuan/ton. - Blast furnace operating rate increased from 78.94% to 79.31%, a rise of 0.37 percentage points; Electric furnace operating rate increased from 68.63% to 72.97%, a gain of 4.34 percentage points. - Rebar blast furnace profit increased from 48 yuan/ton to 63 yuan/ton, a rise of 15 yuan/ton; Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit increased from - 29 yuan/ton to - 15 yuan/ton, a gain of 14 yuan/ton. - Rebar electric furnace profit decreased from - 12 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a drop of 20 yuan/ton. - Rebar weekly production increased from 188.22 tons to 191.04 tons, a rise of 2.82 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly production increased from 304.51 tons to 305.51 tons, a gain of 1 ton [36] 2.2 Another One - Week Data Changes - Rebar weekly social inventory increased from 282.66 tons to 290.18 tons, a rise of 7.52 tons; Rebar weekly enterprise inventory increased from 139.37 tons to 147.93 tons, a gain of 8.56 tons. - Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory increased from 288.64 tons to 290.81 tons, a rise of 2.17 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory decreased from 83.32 tons to 77.32 tons, a drop of 6 tons. - Rebar weekly apparent consumption decreased from 200.44 tons to 174.96 tons, a decline of 25.48 tons; Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption decreased from 310.77 tons to 308.34 tons, a drop of 2.43 tons. - Building materials trading volume increased from 82784 tons to 89295 tons, a rise of 6511 tons [38] Other aspects - Also analyzed rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai [39][40][41] 3. Supply - Demand Data Analysis - Analyzed blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profit, steel inventory, building steel trading volume, rebar and hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption changes, steel export volume, real estate investment and sales data, housing construction area data, and manufacturing PMI data [43][45][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report This week, the 05 contract showed an upward trend, but it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. This is due to the expected decrease in maintenance and a slight increase in production scheduling next week, while demand may continue to be sluggish, and overall inventory is at a high level [5][6][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the 05 contract was on an upward trend. The opening price on Monday was 4,784 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 4,897 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.36% [5]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.70%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The output of carbide - based enterprises was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, and the output of ethylene - based enterprises was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, it is expected that maintenance will decrease and production scheduling will increase slightly [5]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.080 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 66.43%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.780 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are not competitive. Current demand may continue to be sluggish [5]. - **Cost and Inventory**: The profit of carbide - based production was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,127.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 1.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure. Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Overall inventory is at a high level [6]. 3.2 PVC Futures Market - **Price and Volume Trends**: There are graphical displays of the price trends of the main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and trading volume, as well as the moving averages of 5, 10, 20, 60, and 120 periods. There are also displays of the position trends of the top 5 and top 20 seats [12]. - **Basis and Spread Analysis**: There are graphical displays of the basis trends and the spread analysis of the main contract [9][15]. 3.3 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Carbide - Based Raw Materials**: Graphical displays are provided for the price, cost - profit, and operating rate of semi - coke, as well as the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and maintenance loss of calcium carbide. There are also displays for the price, production of liquid chlorine and raw salt, and the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory of caustic soda [17][21][23][25]. - **Supply Trends**: Graphical displays are provided for the capacity utilization rates of carbide - based and ethylene - based production, the production and maintenance volume of PVC, and the daily production of PVC [29][31]. - **Demand Trends**: Graphical displays are provided for the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC, as well as the investment in real estate, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area of housing. There are also displays for the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, new special bonds of local governments, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [34][36][40]. - **Inventory Situation**: Graphical displays are provided for the exchange warehouse receipts, carbide - based and ethylene - based factory inventories, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [44]. - **Ethylene - Based Situation**: Graphical displays are provided for the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and the FOB price difference of ethylene - based products and the import price difference of vinyl chloride [46]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The monthly supply - demand trends of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025 are presented, including import, production, factory inventory, social inventory, demand, export, and supply - demand differences [50]. 3.4 Technical Analysis This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to undergo a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [54].

证券代码：839979 沥青期货周报 2026年01月05日-01月09日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望 本周03合约为下跌态势,周一开盘价为3172元/吨,周五收盘价为3171元/吨，周跌幅为0.03%。 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石 油沥青样本产能利用率为27.5048%，环比减少1.86个百分点，全国样本企业出货21.03万吨，环比减少 20.05%,样本企业产量为45.9万吨，环比减少6.32%,样本企业装置检修量预估为99.6万吨，环比增加3.64% 。本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为25.4%,环比减少0.07个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑沥青开工率 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.5~1.9） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜企稳上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨3.23%，收报于101410元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，委内瑞拉事件 起起伏伏。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还 是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存138975吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周，增 35201吨至180543吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，20 ...