燃料油周报 （10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周评：上周，国际原油震荡走弱，燃料油价格在地缘因素消退下亦有所减弱，从基本面看，高低 硫燃料油市场均受供应充足拖累，整体走势疲软。高硫报收2658元/吨，周跌4.42%，低硫报收3091元/吨，周 跌6.22%。 由于下游需求疲软且近期供应持续充足，亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构走弱。由于部分市场参与者可能通过 套利推动欧洲货物流入，加上来自中东和西非的低硫燃料油调油组分稳定到货，10月新加坡低硫燃料油套利 到货量预计将增加。贸易消息人士称，新加坡10月预计从西方接收约270-290万吨低硫燃料油，高于 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Last week, the US government continued to shut down, trade concerns were high, and the expectation of interest rate cuts rose again. Gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The prices of gold and silver expanded their gains again. Shanghai gold closed up 9.94%, COMEX gold closed up 6.69%, Shanghai silver closed up 9.24%, and COMEX silver closed up 7.15%. The US dollar index significantly closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated slightly by 0.29%. On Friday night, affected by optimistic trade news, gold and silver prices tumbled [13]. - The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party basically reached a consensus on coalition governance. According to Japanese media, this means that Kōshi Kanasugi is almost certain to win the prime - ministerial nomination election on the 21st [13][14]. - On the morning of October 18th, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [13][14]. - In terms of positions, the net position of Shanghai gold decreased significantly, with more long positions cut and short positions increased. The net position of Shanghai silver decreased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing significantly, but the long positions began to decrease in the second half of the week, which deviated significantly from the price increase. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [13]. - This week, events and data are concentrated. China's Q3 GDP, social retail, real estate development investment and other economic data, and the US CPI and manufacturing PMI will be released. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held. The 47th ASEAN Summit will be held in Malaysia, and Trump will attend. The Fed will hold a payment innovation conference. The US 9 - month CPI originally scheduled for October 15th was postponed to October 24th due to the government shutdown, and the US October Markit manufacturing PMI will also be announced on the same day [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination. The appointment of a dovish prime minister in Japan will bring upward momentum in the direction of easing. On the other hand, Sino - US trade concerns have significantly cooled down. These two factors will impact gold and silver prices in opposite directions, but the improvement in risk appetite will also drive gold and silver prices to remain relatively strong. The upward trend remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Review - The prices of various gold and silver varieties showed different price movements and fluctuations last week. For example, Shanghai gold 2512 had a previous close of 999, the highest was 1001, and the increase was 94; Shanghai silver 2512 had a previous close of 12249, the highest was 12366, and the increase was 24. The US dollar index closed down 0.27%, and the RMB appreciated 0.29% [4][13]. 2. Weekly Review - The US government continued to shut down last week, trade concerns were high, and gold and silver prices first rose and then fell. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party reached a consensus on coalition governance. Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold new - round consultations. China's September economic data showed that the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap reached a new low of 1.2 percentage points, the year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [13][14][15]. 3. Fundamental Data - China's September economic data: new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan, new RMB deposits were 2.21 trillion yuan, the M2 - M1 scissors - gap was 1.2 percentage points. The year - on - year decline in CPI narrowed to 0.3%, the core CPI was 1%, and the year - on - year decline in PPI narrowed to 2.3% [15]. 4. Position Data - Shanghai gold's top 20 long positions decreased by 7.00% to 204,656, short positions increased by 1.25% to 79,553, and the net position decreased by 11.59% to 125,103. Shanghai silver's top 20 long positions increased by 9.91% to 377,410, short positions increased by 14.57% to 285,786, and the net position decreased by 2.46% to 91,624. As of September 23rd, the CFTC net long position in gold remained net long and increased slightly, with both long and short positions increasing; the CFTC net long position in silver continued to increase, with both long and short positions decreasing [25][27][29]. 5. Summary - This week, attention should be paid to the result of the Japanese prime - ministerial nomination and the release of the US CPI data. The upward trend of gold and silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be fluctuations in the near future [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton generally showed a volatile rebound trend. After continuous declines in the early stage, a technical rebound occurred. The overall market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects. The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [4][5]. - Positive factors include the reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [6]. - Negative factors include ongoing trade negotiations, high tariffs on exports to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - This week, cotton was in a volatile rebound trend. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to the ICAC September report, the output and consumption in the 2025/26 season are both 25.5 million tons; according to the USDA September report, the output is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and the ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's October report for the 2025/26 season, the output is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities. The previous negative news has been gradually digested. The main contract 01 should pay attention to the pressure around 13,500, and the intraday trading idea is to be bullish on the volatility [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus Not explicitly stated in the provided content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecasts**: The USDA's September global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season is 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons. The ICAC's 2025/26 season global output is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, and global trade volume is 9.7 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 season data shows output of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.22 million tons [4][11][13][15]. - **Price and Trade Data**: In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 18.18% [4]. 3.5 Position Data Not explicitly stated in the provided content.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢周报（10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 观点和策略 2 基本面 3 技术分析 4 产业链梳理总结 不锈钢主力：20均线上下宽幅震荡，远离均线则可做回归。 一、观点和策略 沪镍观点：本周镍价偏弱运行，周初镍价下行，下游成交尚可，周三后价格启稳，交投转 冷清。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，菲律宾雨季慢慢来临，矿山挺价，海运费最近有小幅下 降。镍铁价格回落，成本线有所下移。不锈钢库存小幅回落，节后再次开始去库存。新能 源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车有所回升，但总体提振有限。中长线过剩格局不变。 操作策略： 沪镍主力：120000-123800震荡运行，可逢高试空。 二、基本面分析 1、产业链周度价格变化 2、镍矿市场状况分析 3、电解镍市场状况分析 4 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周白糖继续震荡下跌，前半周下跌幅度较大，后半周略有反弹。 Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计 25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前 预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖 1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等 三项合计11.55 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2 近期要闻 豆粕早报 2025-10-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 3 多空关注 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2880至2940区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡回升，中美谈判恢复提振市场信心和技术性震荡整理，美豆千点关口上 方震荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕探底回升， 美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，十月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘 面，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2870（华东），基差-25，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存118.92万吨，上周125万吨，环比减少4.86%，去年同期122.65万吨， 同比减少3.04%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 需求进入淡季，豆粕弱势震荡 （豆粕周报10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 美国大豆部分产区天气短 | 中性 | 美国大豆产区天气短期良 | | | 期正常 | | 好。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆维持震荡，中美关税 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏弱，中 | | | 谈判和美豆天气仍有变数 | | 性或偏空 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期预期转淡， 油厂压榨量高位回落 | 偏空 | 需求短期偏弱，油厂开机预 计高位 ...

证券代码：839979 碳酸锂期货周报 2025年10月13日-10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 一．回顾与展望 本周01合约为上涨态势，周一开盘价为72800元/吨，周五收盘价为75700元/吨，周涨幅为3.98%。 供给端来看，本周碳酸锂产量为21066吨，高于历史同期平均水平，其中锂辉石产13164吨，环比增 加0.77%,高于历史同期平均水平，锂云母产2791吨，环比增加3.56%,高于历史同期平均水平，盐湖产 3114吨，环比增加7.23%,高于历史同期平均水平，回收产1997吨，环比增加1.27%,高于历史同期水平。 需求端来看，2025年9月碳酸锂需求量为116801实物吨，环比增加12.28%,预测下月需求量为123198 实 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕缺乏指引，跟随豆粕震荡 （菜粕周报10.13-10.17） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 CONTENTS 目 录 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期缺乏指引影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2460，基差110，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply being the main issue. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2601 is expected to oscillate between 74,820 - 76,580 [8][9][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In September 2025, production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The September 2025 import volume was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import for next month is 22,000 tons, a 10% increase [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, but is below the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,442 yuan/ton, a 1.46% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,159 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica is 77,485 yuan/ton, a 2.13% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 7,190 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10] - Other factors: Bullish factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in spodumene imports. Bearish factors include high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline and weak demand from the power battery end [11][12] 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - Price changes: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,000 yuan/ton to 73,350 yuan/ton, a 0.48% increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased from 70,750 yuan/ton to 71,100 yuan/ton, a 0.49% increase. The price of lithium ore and other related products also showed different degrees of increase [16] - Supply - demand data: The weekly operating rate was 74.39%, a 3.08 percentage - point increase. The monthly production was 311,670 tons, a 17.74% increase. The monthly demand for phosphoric acid iron - lithium increased by 12.75%, and the monthly demand for ternary materials increased by 25.89%. The monthly net import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,478.01 tons, a 59.34% increase [19] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 829 US dollars/ton to 846 US dollars/ton, a 2.05% increase [16] - Production: The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 55,950 tons, a 4.91% increase. The import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%, while the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83% [19] - Self - sufficiency rate: The self - sufficiency rates of spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica showed different trends in different years [24] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate production showed different trends in different years [30] - Production: The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, recycling) showed different trends [19][30] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,846.92 tons, a 57.79% increase. The import volume from Chile was 15,607.56 tons, an 81.83% increase [19] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Capacity utilization rate: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) showed different trends [39] - Export: The export volume of Chinese lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different years [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - Spodumene and lithium mica: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses. The processing cost composition of spodumene and lithium mica includes energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items [10][44] - Recycling: The cost - profit situation of recycling different types of battery black powder (phosphoric acid iron - lithium, ternary) for lithium carbonate production showed different trends [46] - Other: The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of processing different types of lithium hydroxide showed different trends [46][49] 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: The total inventory was 132,658 tons, a 1.58% week - on - week decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.33%, the downstream inventory decreased by 3.39%, and other inventory increased by 0.87% [10] - Lithium hydroxide: The inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources (downstream, smelter) showed different trends [51] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The prices of different types of batteries (523 square, power - type square phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage 280Ah square phosphoric acid iron - lithium) showed different trends [55] - Production: The monthly production of battery cells (power - type ternary, power - type phosphoric acid iron - lithium, energy - storage) showed different trends [55] - Loading volume: The total monthly loading volume of power batteries was 76,000 GWh, a 21.60% increase. The loading volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium batteries increased by 26.61%, and the loading volume of ternary batteries increased by 20.54% [19] - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different years [55] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The prices of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [61] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary precursors showed different trends [61] - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursors was 88,070 tons, a 20.82% increase for the 622 type [19][61] - Supply - demand balance: The balance in September 2025 was 5,258 tons, showing different supply - demand relationships in different months [64] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The prices of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of ternary materials showed different trends [67] - Production: The production of ternary materials from different series (NCA, 3 - series, 5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) showed different trends [67] - Export: The export volume of ternary materials showed different trends in different years [69] 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium - Price: The prices of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Cost - profit: The cost - profit situation of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [72] - Production: The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends [75] - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends in different years [75] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) showed different trends in different years [80] - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [80] - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different years [81]