沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 近期利多利空分析 利多： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货23300，基差-344，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨1310吨至129818吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [6][11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease while tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Hints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are high. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [6] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [6][8] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are rising, and Qingdao region inventories have recently rebounded. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year; Qingdao region inventory increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [6][16][19] - **Import**: Import volume is rising [22] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales are seasonally rising, tire production decreased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports are rebounding [25][28][31][34] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Likely to Rise Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8] - **Likely to Fall Factors**: Increasing supply, negative domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [8] Basis - The spot price is 15,550, and the basis is - 240, showing a bearish signal. The basis strengthened on January 5th [6][37] Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on January 5th, and there is a US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone [10][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is influenced by the interaction of U.S. soybean trends and demand improvement, with news being mixed and short - term oscillation likely [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4200 - 4300. The market is affected by the execution of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 2. Recent News - The preliminary China - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement have kept soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of U.S. and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 296, indicating a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4220, with a basis of - 23, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed in [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - **Price and Transaction**: The price of soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a high premium. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17][19][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed over time, with the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 showing different trends [21]. - **Supply - Side Conditions**: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [26][49]. - **Demand - Side Conditions**: The procurement of domestic downstream enterprises rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remained at a relatively high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand had a good outlook [28][53]. - **International Market**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina in different years were provided, as well as the monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months [35][40][45]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57][59].

Report Information - Report Name: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Date: January 6, 2026 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 - Qualification: F0283029 (Practicing Qualification), Z0010442 (Investment Consulting Qualification) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2340 and 2400. The market has returned to an oscillatory pattern, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2340 - 2400 range. The market is affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and awaits the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the price. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains an oscillatory pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal on January 5 was 608 [13]. - **Price Summary**: Rapeseed meal futures prices fluctuate, and the spot price follows. The spot premium remains at a relatively high level. On January 5, the price of the main 2605 contract was 2361, and the spot price in Fujian was 2530 [15][18]. - **Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts have been 0 from December 23 to January 5 [17]. - **Aquatic Product Situation**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [35]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal futures have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For rebar, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a downward - trending real estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset. For hot - rolled coils, with weakening supply and demand, inventory increase, and export difficulties, it should also be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak, with the real estate industry in a downward cycle; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3,290, with a basis of 186; bullish [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 294.19 tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year; bullish [2] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Likely Positive Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4] Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect; neutral [7] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3,250, with a basis of 2; neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 296.7 tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year; neutral [7] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coils' main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing; bullish [7] - **Likely Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on cotton is that the short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue the volatile upward trend with possible fluctuations like "three steps forward, two steps back". The bullish factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased downstream replenishment due to rising cotton prices, and positive indicators such as the 20 - day moving average trend, k - line position, and main force's long - position trend. However, there are also bearish factors such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large number of new cotton listings, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by over 10%. Different reports have different data on cotton production and consumption. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a 2025/2026 production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons, while the USDA 11 - month report shows a production of 2614.5 tons and consumption of 2588.3 tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 data shows a production of 6.7 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are considered bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,615, and the basis for the 05 contract is 960, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Force Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main force's trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectations**: The factors driving this round of rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, a month - on - month increase in exports, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish stocks due to rising cotton prices, and significant policy - regulated reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year [4]. 3. Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the total global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [14]. 5. Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate between 8,625 - 8,835 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows short - term increase in silicon wafer production and is expected to decline in the medium - term, cell production decreases continuously, module production decreases continuously, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 57,455 - 59,835 [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 306,000 tons; silicone inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 70,200 tons; social inventory is 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase; major port inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang region is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a 1.45% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 231,900 tons, a 6.91% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease. The estimated module output in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, module production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,400 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the price of N - type dense material was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 5,395 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions decreased [9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.97% - 1.65% [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate of some contracts exceeding 100% [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231 [16]. - **Organosilicon**: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease from the previous week; the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%; the daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton; the monthly DMC inventory was 53,200 tons, a 21.18% increase from the previous month [16]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, a 2.90% increase from the previous day; the daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 90 yuan/ton, an 80.35% decrease from the previous day [16]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of most daily silicon wafers remained unchanged; the weekly silicon wafer output was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [18]. - **Cell**: The prices of most daily cells remained unchanged; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease from the previous week; the monthly photovoltaic cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Module**: The prices of most daily modules remained unchanged; the monthly module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month; the domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European module inventory was 31.3GW, a 5.44% decrease from the previous month [18]. 3. Industrial Silicon Downstream Market Organosilicon - **DMC Price and Production**: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate showed a certain fluctuation; the DMC price and cost remained relatively stable; the weekly DMC production showed a downward trend [44]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed a certain degree of stability [46]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The DMC monthly export and import volumes showed certain fluctuations; the DMC inventory showed an upward trend [51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, and aluminum scrap import volume showed certain fluctuations; the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price showed an upward trend; the import ADC12 cost and profit showed certain changes [54]. - **Inventory and Output**: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed certain fluctuations; the weekly opening rates of primary aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend; the aluminum alloy ingot social inventory showed a downward trend [57]. - **Demand**: The monthly output and sales of automobiles showed certain fluctuations; the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed a certain trend [58]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Situation**: The polysilicon industry cost showed a certain trend; the polysilicon price showed a downward trend; the polysilicon total inventory showed an upward trend; the polysilicon monthly output and opening rate showed certain fluctuations; the polysilicon monthly demand showed a downward trend [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The polysilicon supply, import, export, and consumption showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand balance showed a trend of change [67]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The silicon wafer price showed a certain trend; the silicon wafer weekly output and inventory showed certain fluctuations; the silicon wafer monthly demand showed a downward trend; the net export of single - crystal silicon wafers and polysilicon wafers showed certain fluctuations [70]. - **Cell**: The price of single - crystal P/N type cells showed a certain trend; the cell production scheduling and actual output showed certain fluctuations; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories showed a downward trend; the photovoltaic cell opening rate showed a certain trend; the cell export showed an upward trend [73]. - **Photovoltaic Module**: The module price showed a certain trend; the domestic and European photovoltaic module inventories showed a downward trend; the module monthly output showed a downward trend; the module export showed an upward trend [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import and export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, and export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and welding strip import and export volume all showed certain fluctuations [79]. - **Component Composition Cost and Profit**: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit and cost, cell profit and cost, and component profit and cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components all showed certain fluctuations [81]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: The national new power generation installed capacity, power generation structure and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation all showed certain trends [83].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月6日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，少量聚酯工厂补货，现货基差略走弱。本周货源在05-50附近成交， 月中少量在05-46~48成交，价格商谈区间在4970~5090。1月下在05-45附近有成交。仓单在05-40~45成交。今日主流现货基差在 05-49。中性 6、预期：近期伴随部分装置供应回归，PTA供需格局环比转弱，现货市场节后商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注油价波动及上下游装置变动。 MEG 每日观点 6、预期：近期受大风天气影响， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high and fluctuated significantly at a high level, with geopolitical disturbances still existing [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the short - term. Positive factors are geopolitical disturbances, Fed rate cuts, and slow mining production increase and mine reduction events; negative factors are the unexpected US comprehensive tariff and the suppression of downstream consumption by high copper prices [5]. - In terms of supply and demand balance, there will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The December manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 100645, and the basis is - 705, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - On January 6, the copper inventory decreased by 2775 to 142550 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33639 tons to 145342 tons compared with last week, showing a neutral situation [3]. - The bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [14]. Market Trend Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, which is bullish [3]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [3]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - The 2024 China copper supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus, and 2025 is expected to be in a tight balance. The 2024 China copper production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is 110000 tons [20][22]. Other Factors Analysis - Positive factors include geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and the production reduction event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [5]. - Negative factors include the unexpected US comprehensive tariff and the suppression of downstream consumption by high copper prices due to the not - optimistic global economy [5]. - The processing fee has declined [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续冲高。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，出船量受 天气影响，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格持续反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货138150，基差4050，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255354，+72，上交所仓单38424，+758，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，多头少量持有。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格略涨，短期镍矿价格 ...