交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-01燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：市场消息人士称，尽管下游船用燃料油市场仍有支撑，但南亚地区今夏发电需求疲软严重打 击市场情绪。一位新加坡贸易商表示，今年完全没有夏季发电需求，孟加拉国采购极其缓慢，夏季发电需 求的缺失冲击了市场。当前正值中东用油高峰季，沙特却将红海油品转销新加坡；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油412.48美元/吨，基差为128元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为520.5美元/吨，基差 为165元/吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油7月30日当周库存为2027.9万桶，增加37万桶；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，7月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%， 比上月下降0.4个百分点；中性。 2、基差：现货78535，基差495，升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：7月31日铜库存增1350至138200吨，上期所铜库存较上周减11133吨至74423吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向下运行；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存回升，地缘扰动仍存，淡季消费承压，铜价震荡调整. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2、美联储降息。 3、矿 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The "anti-involution" sentiment has subsided. There are few maintenance works in soda ash plants, and the supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakened terminal demand. The inventory in soda ash plants is at a historical high. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,247 yuan/ton, with a basis of 3 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Market**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply-demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading policy benefits, the short-term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance season in summer is approaching, which will lead to a decline in production [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production volume is at a historical high. The production of photovoltaic glass, a major downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Session | Closing Price of Main Contract | Lowest Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,311 yuan/ton | 1,300 yuan/ton | -11 yuan/ton | | Current | 1,247 yuan/ton | 1,250 yuan/ton | 3 yuan/ton | | Change | -4.88% | -3.85% | -127.27% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method is -87 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method is -50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is recovering from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and sales rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in operation has dropped significantly [27][30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, and growth rates [34].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 14,650 and a basis of 90, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level, with a neutral outlook [6]. - The basis is positive, with the spot price at 14,650 and a basis of 90, indicating a bullish signal [6]. - Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing, presenting a neutral situation [6]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. - The market is dominated by sentiment, and short - term trading is recommended [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [6][8]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 31st, and the US dollar - quoted price in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also mentioned [10]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories are decreasing, while Qingdao area inventories are increasing [6][16][19]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal increases in automobile production and sales and a record - high tire production in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [8][25][31]. 3.3 Multi - Empty Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and non - seasonal destocking in the Qingdao area [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：8月1日关税大限临近，今日重要事件和数据集中，金价震荡回升；美国 三大股指全线收跌，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美 债收益率跌0.20个基点报4.366%；美元指数跌0.02%报100.04，离岸人民币对美元小 幅贬值报7.2085；COMEX黄金期货跌0.31%报3342.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货770.28，现货766.53，基差-3.75，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单35643千克，增加2199千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-8-1 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1184元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1117元/吨，基差为67元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5949.90万重量箱，较前一周减少3.87%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：政策利好消退，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan for key industries including the petrochemical industry [4]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for agricultural films, and the demand for packaging films has slightly improved. Overall, downstream demand is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 0, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [4]. - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, it's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [6] - Bearish: Weak demand [6] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Macro: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, staying in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a steady - growth plan on July 18 [7]. - Supply - Demand: It's the off - season for downstream demand. Affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 32, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [7]. - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), showing a bearish trend [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [7]. - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Expectation: The PP main contract is oscillating. Driven by the macro steady - growth plan, downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will oscillate today [7]. Influential Factors - Bullish: Cost support and macro - policy promotion [8] - Bearish: Weak demand [8] - Main Logic: Cost and demand, driven by domestic macro - policies [8] Market Data LLDPE - Spot: The price of LLDPE spot delivery products is 7350 (-50), the import US dollar price is 835 (0), the import conversion price is 7386 (7), and the import price difference is -36 (-57) [9]. - Futures: The price of the LLDPE 09 contract is 7350 (-37), the basis is 0 (-13), and the prices of other contracts (L01, L05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of LLDPE warehouse receipts is 5816 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 49.1 million tons (-7.2), and the PE social inventory is 56.2 million tons (0.3) [9] PP - Spot: The price of PP spot delivery products is 7150 (0), the import US dollar price is 860 (0), the import conversion price is 7603 (7), and the import price difference is -453 (-7) [9]. - Futures: The price of the PP 09 contract is 7118 (-27), the basis is 32 (27), and the prices of other contracts (PP01, PP05) also have corresponding changes [9]. - Inventory: The number of PP warehouse receipts is 12625 (-70), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.6), and the PP social inventory is 27.3 million tons (-0.1) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the production capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 12.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year [14]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc., of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with a growth rate of 13.5% in 2024 compared to the previous year [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年6月PVC产量为199.134万吨，环比减少1.40%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.79%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量33.834万吨，环比减少0.58%,乙烯法企业产 量11.319万吨，环比减少2.32%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 1、基本面: 中性。 点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为77%，环比增加.33个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树 脂开工率为76.07%，环比减少0.21个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看跌；国内PVC出口价格价 格占优；当前需求或持续低迷 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1750 | -70 | 09合约 | 1714 | -28 | 仓 单 | 3233 | 333 | | 山东现货 | 1750 | -70 | 基 差 | 3 6 | -42 | UR综合库存 | 143 1 . | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1760 | 0 | UR01 | 1736 | -34 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.9204%，环比减少3.36个百分 点，全国样本企业出货26.9万吨，环比增加8.03%,样本企业产量为51.6万吨，环比减少 9.79%,样本企业装置检修量预估为64.2万吨，环比增加11.85%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低 供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.8%，环比减少0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑 沥青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为14.4572%，环比减 少0.09个百分点，低于历史平均水平；道路改性沥青开工率为27%，环比增加2.00个百分 点，低于历史平均水平；防水卷材开工率为30%，环比增加2.00个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；总体来看，当前需求低于历史平均水平。 1、基本面: 偏多。 成本端来看，日度加工沥青利润为-547.8元/吨，环比增加7.50%，周度山东地炼延迟焦化 ...