Report Overview - Report Date: October 17, 2025 - Report Subject: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Analyst: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating 2. Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate between 2340 and 2400. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season, and low inventory supports the price, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the price will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 oscillates between 2340 - 2400. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of Sino - Canadian tariff reduction, and returns to an oscillating pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term, while demand decreases, suppressing the price. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply. The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The global rapeseed production increases this year, and the impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on rapeseed production is relatively offset [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports in China and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season, and the final result of the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2500, the basis is 136, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Trading Data**: The recent trading data shows that the trading volume of rapeseed meal is 0, and the price of rapeseed meal futures oscillates downward, while the spot price is relatively stable, with the spot premium slightly expanding. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuates slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillates at a low level [13][15][17]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions are decreasing, and funds are flowing in, which is bearish [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年9月PVC产量为203.0766万吨，环比减少2.05%；本周样本 企业产能利用率为82.63%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量35.272万吨，环比增 加0.70%,乙烯法企业产量15.084万吨，环比增加4.06%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计 检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为39.21%，环比减少8.55个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 游型材开工率为15.87%，环比减少23.0个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为 32.83%，环比减少7.6个百分点，低于历史平均 ...

工业硅期货早报 2025年10月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | 7万吨 ， . | 环比有所增加4 30% 。 . | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | | 2万吨 环比减少4 ， . | 65% . . | 需求持续低迷 | . | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为24万吨 | ， | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 ， | 电池片亏损 ， | 组件盈 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch in the lithium carbonate market leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - In the future, it is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 74040 - 75840 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints 3.1.1 Fundamentals - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.08%, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand side: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,849 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.26% [8]. - Cost side: The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 73,373 yuan/ton, a daily - on - week increase of 0.06%, with a production profit of - 1438 yuan/ton, indicating a loss. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 75,870 yuan/ton, a daily - on - week increase of 0.92%, with a production profit of - 5918 yuan/ton, also indicating a loss. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. 3.1.2 Inventory - On October 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,000 yuan/ton, the basis of the 01 contract was - 2080 yuan/ton, and the spot was at a discount to the futures. The downstream inventory was 57,735 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.39%, lower than the historical average. The smelter inventory was 34,283 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 132,658 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.58%, higher than the historical average [8]. 3.1.3 Market Trends - The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish trend. The net short position of the main contract increased, showing a bearish trend [8]. 3.1.4 Expectations - In September 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 89,890 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.00%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2601 will fluctuate in the range of 74040 - 75840 [8]. 3.1.5 Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import of lithium spodumene [9]. - Bearish factors: High - level and limited - decline supply from the ore/salt lake end, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - Yesterday's market overview shows the price and price changes of lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as the basis and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [14]. - The supply - demand data overview shows the supply - side data such as the weekly and monthly production, cost, and profit of lithium carbonate, and the demand - side data such as the production, inventory, and export of lithium iron phosphate and ternary precursors [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Lithium ore price trends, production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica, import volume of lithium concentrate, and lithium ore self - sufficiency rate are presented over different time periods [22]. - The supply - demand balance table of domestic lithium ore shows the demand, production, import, export, and balance of lithium ore from September 2024 to September 2025 [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - The weekly and monthly production, production capacity, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) are presented over different time periods [28]. - The supply - demand balance table of lithium carbonate shows the demand, export, import, production, and balance of lithium carbonate from September 2024 to September 2025 [34]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - The weekly and monthly production capacity utilization rate, production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) are presented over different time periods [37]. - The supply - demand balance table of lithium hydroxide shows the demand, export, import, production, and balance of lithium hydroxide from September 2024 to September 2025 [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit situations of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and various recycling materials for producing lithium carbonate, as well as the processing costs and profit margins of lithium hydroxide and industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, are presented over different time periods [42][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - The trends of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory (by smelter, downstream, and others), and monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide (by smelter and downstream) are presented over different time periods [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - The price trends, monthly production, monthly loading volume, monthly shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries are presented over different time periods [53][55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - The price trends, cost - profit situations, capacity utilization rate, production capacity, and monthly production of ternary precursors are presented over different time periods [58]. - The supply - demand balance table of ternary precursors shows the export, demand, import, production, and balance of ternary precursors from September 2024 to September 2025 [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - The price trends, cost - profit situations, weekly production start - up rate, production capacity, production, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory of ternary materials are presented over different time periods [64][66]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - The price trends, production costs, cost - profit situations, production capacity, monthly production start - up rate, monthly production, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented over different time periods [68][71]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory warning and inventory indexes of new energy vehicles are presented over different time periods [76][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with some predicting a supply surplus and others a narrowing supply gap [4][9][35] - The domestic sugar market shows a narrowing long - term supply gap, and the new sugar is about to be listed in large quantities after the end of the consumption peak season. The downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 has weakened, and attention should be paid to the filling of the 5450 gap [4][5][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 7400000 tons, 1200000 tons more than the August forecast. StoneX expects a 2770000 - ton surplus, while ISO predicts a supply gap of 231000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11162100 tons, and the cumulative sales were 10000000 tons, with a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60000 tons, and 115500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 155700 tons. The situation is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5810, and the basis for the 01 contract is 402, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 1160000 tons, a neutral situation [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [5] - **Expectation**: New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities, and the consumption peak season has passed. After continuous declines, the downward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar's main contract 01 has weakened. Although the overall center of gravity has shifted down, the trend is tortuous, and there are technical rebounds in the intraday session. Attention should be paid to the filling of the 5450 gap [5][9] 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. ISO expects a narrowing supply gap to 20000 tons; StoneX expects a 2770000 - ton surplus; Czarnikow expects a 6200000 - ton surplus (another mention is 7500000 tons); Datagro expects a 1530000 - ton surplus; Covrig Analytics expects a 4200000 - ton surplus; Alvean/Louis Dreyfus expects a 400000 - ton surplus; Green Pool expects a 1150000 - ton surplus [35] - **China's Sugar Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugarcane planting area is expected to be 1230000 hectares, the beet planting area is 210000 hectares, the sugar production is expected to be 11200000 tons, the import volume is 5000000 tons, the consumption is 15900000 tons, and the balance change is 120000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be between 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be between 5800 - 6500 yuan per ton [37] - **Import and Cost Data**: In August 2025, China imported 830000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60000 tons, and 115500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 155700 tons. The import cost of raw sugar after processing and paying 50% tariff in September 2025 was about 5454 yuan per ton [9][42] 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc futures (ZN2511) are expected to oscillate and weaken. The LME inventory warrants remain at a low level, while the SHFE warrants continue to increase. The overall analysis of various indicators shows a mixed situation, with some indicators being bullish, some neutral, and some bearish [2][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. 3.2 Basis - The spot price is 22,010, and the basis is +70, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3.3 Inventory - On October 16, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 50 tons to 38,300 tons compared to the previous day. On October 15, the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,800 tons to 67,466 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3.4 Market Trends - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.5 Main Positions - The main net position is short, and the short positions increased, indicating a bearish situation [2]. 3.6 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes (October 16) - The trading volume of all contracts was 192,896 lots, with a total trading value of 2.11928299 billion yuan. The total open interest was 219,855 lots, an increase of 15,504 lots [3]. 3.7 Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes (October 16) - The prices of zinc concentrate, zinc ingots, galvanized sheets, galvanized pipes, zinc alloys, zinc powder, zinc oxide, and secondary zinc oxide all showed varying degrees of decline or remained unchanged [4]. 3.8 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 29 - October 16, 2025) - As of October 16, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 1.556 million tons, an increase of 195,000 tons compared to October 9 and 21,000 tons compared to October 13 [5]. 3.9 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report (October 16) - The total zinc warrants in the SHFE on October 16 were 67,466 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared to the previous day [6]. 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics (October 16) - The total LME zinc inventory on October 16 was 38,300 tons, a decrease of 50 tons compared to the previous day [7]. 3.11 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary (October 16) - The prices of zinc concentrate in major cities across the country decreased by 50 yuan/ton [8]. 3.12 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes (October 16) - The prices of zinc ingots from major smelters showed varying degrees of decline [11]. 3.13 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in September 2025 - The planned production value in September was 506,800 tons, the actual production was 499,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53% and a year - on - year increase of 16.13%. The planned production in October is 509,600 tons [14]. 3.14 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes (October 16) - The processing fees of zinc concentrate in different regions are in a certain range, and there is no change in the price compared to the previous period [16]. 3.15 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking (October 16) - In the trading of the zn2511 contract, the total trading volume of the top 20 futures companies was 151,006 lots, a decrease of 51,065 lots compared to the previous day. The total long positions were 62,557 lots, a decrease of 620 lots, and the total short positions were 60,446 lots, a decrease of 1,223 lots [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: After previous destocking, downstream coking enterprises have started to make appropriate purchases of some coal types, mainly in small quantities. Steel mills' hot metal production is oscillating at a high level, and most enterprises are purchasing on - demand. However, due to poor profits, there are many maintenance expectations in the future, and the enthusiasm for expanding coking coal purchases is not high. It is expected that the coking coal price may run weakly and stably in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: There may still be a gap in the supply and demand of coke in the near future, and the rebound of coking coal prices at the raw material end strengthens the cost support for coking enterprises. However, considering the gradual decline in steel profits and poor sales, steel mills are increasing production restrictions and maintenance, which may affect the daily consumption of coke. The current market expectations are divided, and it is expected that coke may remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **焦煤** - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines in production areas have stopped production. Downstream coking and steel enterprises still have rigid demand for raw coal replenishment, and some enterprises have started appropriate replenishment. The auction non - success rate of major mines remains low, and transaction prices have mostly risen, driving market sentiment to improve, and coal mines' willingness to hold prices has increased [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1260, and the basis is 74.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1895.4 tons, a decrease of 76.2 tons compared to last week, including 781.1 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 819.3 tons in independent coking enterprises [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main net long position in coking coal has increased [3]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. - **焦炭** - **Fundamentals**: Recently, the price of some coking coal at the raw material end has risen, squeezing the profit margin of coking enterprises and increasing production pressure. Some coking enterprises in production areas have reduced production due to environmental protection maintenance, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply. Coking enterprises are mainly focused on active sales, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1610, and the basis is - 62.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 888.4 tons, a decrease of 8.1 tons compared to last week, including 650.8 tons in steel mills, 195.1 tons in ports, and 42.5 tons in independent coking enterprises [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [7]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position in coke has decreased [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. **Price** - **Imported Coking Coal**: On October 16 (17:30), the prices of various imported coking coals at different ports are provided, including those from Russia and Australia, with some price increases [10]. - **Port Metallurgical Coke**: On October 16 (17:30), the price indices of port metallurgical coke of different grades and at different ports are provided, with no price changes [11]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The medium - to long - term supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation. The 2511 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillating trend, and it is advisable to try short - selling at high prices [2]. - **不锈钢**: The 2512 contract is expected to oscillate widely around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **沪镍 Analysis** - **Fundamentals**: The price of nickel ore is firm, and the rainy season in the Philippines is approaching. The price of nickel iron is weakly stable, and nickel - iron enterprises are still in the red. Stainless steel inventory increased during the National Day holiday. New energy vehicle production and sales data are good, but the loading of ternary batteries is still declining, with limited boost to nickel demand. The medium - to long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 122,150, and the basis is 880, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory is 250,344 (an increase of 3,588), and the SHFE warrant is 26,474 (a decrease of 84), showing a bearish signal [2]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [2]. **Stainless Steel Analysis** - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remains unchanged. In the short term, the price of nickel ore and shipping costs are firm, and the price of nickel iron is weakly stable. The cost line is firm, and stainless steel inventory has increased, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel is 13,725, and the basis is 1,110, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The futures warrant is 83,231 (a decrease of 776), showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Market**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, indicating a bearish signal [4]. **Price and Inventory Data** - **Price**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel on October 16 and their changes compared with October 15 are presented in detail, including futures and spot prices of different varieties [13]. - **Inventory**: For nickel, LME inventory, SHFE warrants, and total inventory data on October 16 and their changes compared with October 15 are provided. For stainless steel, inventory data in Wuxi, Foshan, and the whole country on October 10 and the changes in futures warrants on October 16 compared with October 15 are given [16][19][20]. **Cost Data** - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron**: The prices of different grades of nickel ore and nickel iron on October 16 and their changes compared with October 15 are presented, including CIF prices of red - soil nickel ore and prices of high - and low - nickel iron [23]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: Traditional cost is 13,005, scrap steel production cost is 13,238, and low - nickel + pure nickel cost is 16,822 [25]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The import price is converted to 122,547 yuan/ton [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **PTA**: The spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, and the news of new device production further suppresses market expectations. The spot basis continues to weaken. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate mainly following the cost side in the short term. Pay attention to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - **MEG**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded to around 540,000 tons this week, and the weekly arrival volume is neutral. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is weak in October, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in the far - month. The future spot liquidity will be loose. The current price cannot squeeze out effective supply, which makes the market sentiment weak. It is expected that the ethylene glycol market will operate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to external factors and device changes [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No specific content for previous day review is provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis was weak. The mainstream price of October goods was at a discount of 85 to the 01 contract, with individual transactions slightly higher at 01 - 80 and slightly lower at 01 - 90, and the price negotiation range was around 4,325 - 4,380. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 01 - 85 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,360, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 96, with the contract price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.08 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, and short positions are increasing [6]. - **MEG**: - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol rose slightly, and the market negotiation was acceptable. In the night session, ethylene glycol opened slightly higher and then declined, and the market negotiation was weak. During the day, the ethylene glycol disk was firm and rising due to news, and the spot basis strengthened synchronously in the afternoon. At the end of the session, the spot transaction was at a premium of 72 - 73 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol was firm and rising, and the trading volume of near - ocean tender goods increased. In the morning, the negotiation and transaction price of recent cargoes was around 481 - 486 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the disk adjusted slightly, and the negotiation price of recent cargoes was around 488 - 490 US dollars/ton. Traders participated in the transaction. There were transactions of tender goods from Taiwan and South Korea during the day, with a cargo volume of around 17,000 tons [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,126, and the basis of the 01 contract is 37, with the spot price higher than the contract price [9]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 495,000 tons, an increase of 49,900 tons compared to the previous period [9]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [9]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing [9]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Influencing Factors Summary**: - **Positive Factors**: Before the festival, driven by the rebound of demand and oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the front - spinning of filament decreased rapidly to about half a month, and the price rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the festival, the polyester price was stable, and the filament production and sales were only 10% - 20%. It is estimated that the average inventory accumulation in 8 days is more than 5 days. Some PTA device overhauls and capacity reduction, and the new device production is postponed [10][11]. - **Negative Factors**: A 3.6 - million - ton PTA device in East China is currently gradually increasing to over 90% capacity, and this device reduced its load around October 7 [12]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Pay attention to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, pay attention to the upper resistance level [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, PTA consumption, total demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production capacity, load, output, ethylene glycol consumption, total demand, port inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025 [15]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot prices of naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and short - fibers, as well as the futures prices and basis of PTA and ethylene glycol, and the processing fees and profits of related products [16]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, ethylene glycol, PET chips, and polyester products from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. - **Industry Start - up Rate**: It shows the start - up rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [55][57][59][61]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profits of PTA, ethylene glycol, polyester filaments, and short - fibers from 2022 to 2025 [63][65][67][69][70].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-10-17） 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，供应端本月到港水平有所降低，总体供需宽松，港口库存减少，市场 将出台粗钢压减政策，贸易战缓和；中性 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价820，基差47；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价833，基差59，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存14641.08万吨，环比增加，同比减少；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方,20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，去产能的计划冲击市场，高位震荡思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期 ...