大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月5日 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：上周镍价继续大幅上涨，主力多头并没有获利了结，而是在高位做高抛低吸。近期部分产 能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，出船量受天气影响，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格 持续反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。 新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货137550，基差4700，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255282（1月2日），120，上交所仓单37666，-132，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，回到前期箱 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 2025/26 season, with different institutions having varying surplus estimates [4][9]. - The domestic sugar market's main contract 05 has had a strong short - term rebound, but the upward momentum has weakened, and the market may oscillate and decline for adjustment, with attention on whether there is support around 5200 [5][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals** - Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons [4][9]. - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4]. - In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the import of syrup and pre - mixed powder totaled 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9]. - The 2026/27 Brazilian sugar production may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and the US cola changing its formula to use sucrose are positive factors; while the increase in global sugar production, supply surplus, low international sugar prices, and open import profit margins are negative factors [7][9]. - **Basis** - The Liuzhou spot price is 5400, and the basis for the 05 contract is 142, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Inventory** - As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is a negative factor [6]. - **Market Chart** - The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position** - The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, showing a bearish outlook [6]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast by Institutions** - StoneX predicts a 3.7 - million - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season, due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth [31]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a 1.63 - million - ton surplus, with global sugar production expected to increase by 3.15% and consumption by only 0.6% [31]. - Datagro predicts a 1.53 - million - ton surplus, with the global supply expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31]. - **Sugar Industry Data in China (2023/24 - 2025/26)** - The sugar - crop sowing area, harvest area, and sugar production are expected to show certain trends. For example, the sugar - production in 2025/26 is expected to be 11.7 million tons [33]. - Import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, consumption is expected to be 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is expected to be 820,000 tons [33]. - The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton in 2025/26 [33]. 5. Position Data No information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices continued to rise significantly. The main bulls did not take profits but engaged in high - selling and low - buying at high levels. Recently, some production capacities have cut production, reducing supply pressure. The nickel ore price is stable, the shipping volume is affected by weather, and mines have a strong bullish sentiment. The ferronickel price continues to rebound, and the cost line rises. The stainless steel inventory has declined and is short - term affected by nickel prices. The refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, but the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [6]. - From a technical perspective, on the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Futures**: The nickel price is strong. Short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box [7]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: It is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend. Short - sellers should wait temporarily [8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1. Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - **Nickel Ore**: The price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% remained unchanged from last week, with a 0.00% change [11]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: The price of battery - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.23% to 27,200 yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade sulfuric acid nickel increased by 3.36% to 30,750 yuan/ton [11]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased by 5.46% to 141,900 yuan/ton, Shanghai Russian nickel increased by 5.22% to 134,050 yuan/ton, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased by 6.68% to 142,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Ferronickel**: According to MySteel data, the price of low - grade ferronickel in Shandong remained unchanged at 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade ferronickel increased by 1.65% to 925 yuan/nickel point. According to SMM data, the price of high - grade ferronickel decreased by 25.5 yuan/nickel to 930.5 yuan/nickel, and the price of low - grade ferronickel increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3,300 yuan/ton [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304 stainless steel increased by 1.19% to 13,762.5 yuan/ton [12]. 2.2. Nickel Ore Market Conditions - The nickel ore price remained stable this week, and the freight rate was the same as last week. As of December 25, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 13.7647 million wet tons, a decrease of 626,700 wet tons or 4.35% from the previous period. In November 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 3.3395 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3434 million tons or 28.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 94,600 tons or 2.92%. Mines have a strong bullish sentiment, and the shipping volume is affected by weather. The downstream ferronickel price has improved, and the bargaining power has shifted upward [15]. 2.3. Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices continued to rise, and there was little receiving and shipping during the holiday. In the medium - to - long - term, the global nickel market is expected to maintain an oversupply pattern dominated by low - cost production capacity in Indonesia. The traditional demand for stainless steel and other products has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.27%. The import volume was 12,670.512 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.07% and a year - on - year increase of 40.86%. The export volume was 10,926.086 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.06% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%. The LME inventory decreased by 534 tons to 255,162 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 1,090 tons to 45,544 tons [21][28][31]. 2.4. Ferronickel Market Conditions - The ferronickel price continued to rebound. In November 2025, China's ferronickel production was 22,100 tons of metal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.37%. The import volume was 895,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The inventory in November was 218,500 physical tons, equivalent to 22,500 tons of nickel [41][44][47]. 2.5. Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel increased this week. In November, the stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4931 million tons, with the 300 - series production decreasing by 1.82% month - on - month. The import volume was 112,100 tons, and the export volume was 405,300 tons. As of December 31, the national stainless steel inventory was 977,400 tons, a decrease of 27,700 tons from the previous period [55][59][62]. 2.6. New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China were 14.907 million and 14.78 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2%. In November, the production and sales were 1.88 million and 1.823 million respectively, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 53.2% of the total new vehicle sales [72]. 3. Technical Analysis - On the daily K - line, prices continued to rise significantly, moving away from the moving averages. The long - position power was still strong with no sign of taking profits. Indicators such as MACD were also in an upward trend. The previous top support was effective, and short - sellers should mainly wait and see. If the price falls back to the previous box, they can consider short - selling [78]. 4. Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Impact on Nickel Prices**: Nickel ore has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price is stable and mines are bullish; ferronickel has a neutral - to - bullish impact as the price rebounds and the cost line rises; refined nickel has a neutral impact as there is short - term production cut and reduced supply pressure, but the long - term oversupply pattern remains with high inventory; stainless steel has a neutral impact as the inventory declines and the cost rises; new energy has a neutral impact as the production data is good, but the substitution of ternary batteries continues [81]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the main nickel futures contract, the nickel price is strong, and short - sellers should wait and see and try short - selling again when the price returns to the previous box. For the main stainless steel futures contract, it is expected to run with a slightly bullish trend, and short - sellers should wait temporarily [83][84].

大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2026年1月5日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：芝商所再提高保证金，元旦期间美国空袭委内瑞拉，金价早间反弹；美 国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨；美债收益率多数上涨，10 年期美债收益率涨1.38个基点报4.191%；美元指数涨0.21%报98.46，离岸人民币对 美元升值报6.9699；COMEX黄金期货涨0.02%报4341.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货984.84，现货980.75，基差-5.09，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单97704千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月05日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23450，基差+70；中性。 3、库存：1月2日LME锌库存较上日减少1300吨至106325吨，12月31日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加32吨至42419吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之 ...

目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 沪铜周报（12.29~12.31） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜强势拉涨，沪铜主力合约上涨5.95%，收报于98720元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价，全 球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用。国内方面，消费 淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面， 铜库存LME库存160400吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周，增15898吨至111703吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 数据来源 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable. [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the month-end inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production reduction season. [2] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 338, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - Expectation: The price of soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply will increase as it enters the production increase season. [3] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8,600, with a basis of -16, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - Market: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased. [3] - Expectation: The price of palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: The same MPOB report situation, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production increase season. [4] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,800, with a basis of 713, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - Market: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - Expectation: The price of rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - Bearish: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. [5] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2026-1-5 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日熔量整体延续下滑趋势， 纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1120元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1209元/吨，基差为-89元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存140.83万吨，较前一周减少2.10%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，2025年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit of glass has limited recovery, cold - repairs have increased leading to further supply contraction, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and the inventory is at a historically high level for the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract is 1087 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 904 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 183 yuan/ton, with a 0.00% change compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe is 904 yuan/ton, which is flat compared to the previous day [12]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has limited recovery, and there is an expectation of further cold - repairs in the industry due to low production profit [2][4]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 218, with an operating rate of 73.89%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 154,500 tons, and the production capacity is at a historically low level for the same period [22][24]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In November 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.6944 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period, and the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, causing traders and processors to be cautious and mainly consume the original glass inventory [28][4]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 56.866 million weight boxes, a 3.00% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [2][44]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data such as production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2017, the production was 53.54 million tons, the consumption was 52.29 million tons, and the net import ratio was - 1.734%. In 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, the consumption is expected to be 53.1 million tons, and the production growth rate is 3.94% [45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high again and fluctuated significantly at a high level, and attention should be paid to position control [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. - There are geopolitical disturbances in Russia-Ukraine and Iran-Israel, the Fed may cut interest rates, and the mine end production increase is slow with a production reduction event in the Freeport Indonesia mining area. On the other hand, the US comprehensive tariff may exceed expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Supply side has disturbances, smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, and December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range; neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 99,280, basis is 1,190, at a premium to futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: On December 31, copper inventory decreased by 2,100 to 145,325 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week; neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward; bullish [3]. - Main position: Main net short position decreased; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented, the copper price hit a new high again and fluctuated significantly at a high level, and attention should be paid to position control [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - Bullish factors: Global policy is loose and the mine end is in short supply [4]. - Bearish factors: US comprehensive tariff may exceed expectations, and the global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption [5]. Inventory - Bonded area inventory: Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. Processing Fee - Processing fee: Processing fee has declined [16]. Supply and Demand Balance - 2024 will have a slight surplus, and 2025 will be in a tight balance [20]. - China's annual supply and demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply and demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [22].