1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - For rebar, with weak demand, low - rising inventory, and a downward - trending real estate industry, it should be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset. For hot - rolled coils, with weakening supply and demand, inventory increase, and export difficulties, it should also be treated with a bearish and volatile mindset [2][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand is lackluster, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak, with the real estate industry in a downward cycle; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3,290, with a basis of 186; bullish [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 294.19 tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year; bullish [2] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of rebar's main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Likely Positive Factors**: Low production, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [4] Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect; neutral [7] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coils is 3,250, with a basis of 2; neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 296.7 tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year; neutral [7] - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of hot - rolled coils' main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing; bullish [7] - **Likely Positive Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and promotion of domestic consumption [9] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view on cotton is that the short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue the volatile upward trend with possible fluctuations like "three steps forward, two steps back". The bullish factors include the expected reduction of over 10% in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased downstream replenishment due to rising cotton prices, and positive indicators such as the 20 - day moving average trend, k - line position, and main force's long - position trend. However, there are also bearish factors such as a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, a large number of new cotton listings, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [4][5][6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - There is no information about the previous day's review in the provided content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by over 10%. Different reports have different data on cotton production and consumption. For example, the ICAC 11 - month report shows a 2025/2026 production of 2540 tons and consumption of 2500 tons, while the USDA 11 - month report shows a production of 2614.5 tons and consumption of 2588.3 tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were 23.869 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and cotton yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 data shows a production of 6.7 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.6 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.35 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are considered bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,615, and the basis for the 05 contract is 960, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the k - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Force Position**: The position is bullish, with an increase in net long positions, and the main force's trend is bullish [4]. - **Expectations**: The factors driving this round of rebound include a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, a month - on - month increase in exports, an increase in downstream enterprises' willingness to replenish stocks due to rising cotton prices, and significant policy - regulated reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year [4]. 3. Today's Focus - There is no information about today's focus in the provided content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the total global production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.873 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [9][10]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the area is 30.41385 million hectares, the yield per unit is 835.13 kg/ha, the production is 25.39956 million tons, the beginning inventory is 15.83577 million tons, imports are 9.71442 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, exports are 9.71412 million tons, the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 0.65 [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Cotton Supply - Demand Data**: In 2025/2026, the beginning inventory is 9.853 million tons, production is 7.278 million tons, imports are 1.1 million tons, consumption is 8.1 million tons, and the ending inventory is 10.116 million tons [14]. 5. Position Data - There is no information about position data in the provided content.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and remains at a high level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate between 8,625 - 8,835 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to decrease, the demand side shows short - term increase in silicon wafer production and is expected to decline in the medium - term, cell production decreases continuously, module production decreases continuously, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate between 57,455 - 59,835 [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 87,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 73,000 tons, a 5.19% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish [6]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory is at a neutral level of 306,000 tons; silicone inventory is at a low level of 53,200 tons; aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 70,200 tons; social inventory is 557,000 tons, a 0.36% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 202,400 tons, a 3.48% increase; major port inventory is 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - **Cost**: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang region is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week's polysilicon output was 24,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is predicted to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: Last week's silicon wafer output was 10.18GW, a 1.45% decrease from the previous week, and inventory was 231,900 tons, a 6.91% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase from the previous month. In December, cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss - making state. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease. The estimated module output in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease. The European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, module production is profitable [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 13,400 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 5, the price of N - type dense material was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 5,395 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [10]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 306,000 tons, a 0.99% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [10]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions decreased [9]. 2. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Overview Industrial Silicon - **Futures Closing Price**: All contracts showed a decline, with the decline rate ranging from 0.97% - 1.65% [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of most contracts increased, with the increase rate of some contracts exceeding 100% [16]. - **Warehouse Receipt**: The number of registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 10,231 [16]. - **Organosilicon**: The weekly DMC production was 43,100 tons, a 6.10% decrease from the previous week; the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 65.53%; the daily DMC price remained unchanged at 13,600 yuan/ton; the monthly DMC inventory was 53,200 tons, a 21.18% increase from the previous month [16]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The daily SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price was 23,100 yuan/ton, a 2.90% increase from the previous day; the daily import ADC12 actual immediate profit was 90 yuan/ton, an 80.35% decrease from the previous day [16]. Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of most daily silicon wafers remained unchanged; the weekly silicon wafer output was 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week; the weekly silicon wafer inventory was 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease from the previous week [18]. - **Cell**: The prices of most daily cells remained unchanged; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories was 8.63GW, a 14.21% decrease from the previous week; the monthly photovoltaic cell output was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Module**: The prices of most daily modules remained unchanged; the monthly module output was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease from the previous month; the domestic module inventory was 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease from the previous month; the European module inventory was 31.3GW, a 5.44% decrease from the previous month [18]. 3. Industrial Silicon Downstream Market Organosilicon - **DMC Price and Production**: The DMC daily capacity utilization rate showed a certain fluctuation; the DMC price and cost remained relatively stable; the weekly DMC production showed a downward trend [44]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed a certain degree of stability [46]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The DMC monthly export and import volumes showed certain fluctuations; the DMC inventory showed an upward trend [51]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: The waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, and aluminum scrap import volume showed certain fluctuations; the SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price showed an upward trend; the import ADC12 cost and profit showed certain changes [54]. - **Inventory and Output**: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots showed certain fluctuations; the weekly opening rates of primary aluminum alloy and recycled aluminum alloy showed a downward trend; the aluminum alloy ingot social inventory showed a downward trend [57]. - **Demand**: The monthly output and sales of automobiles showed certain fluctuations; the export of aluminum alloy wheels showed a certain trend [58]. Polysilicon - **Fundamental Situation**: The polysilicon industry cost showed a certain trend; the polysilicon price showed a downward trend; the polysilicon total inventory showed an upward trend; the polysilicon monthly output and opening rate showed certain fluctuations; the polysilicon monthly demand showed a downward trend [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The polysilicon supply, import, export, and consumption showed certain fluctuations, and the supply - demand balance showed a trend of change [67]. - **Silicon Wafer**: The silicon wafer price showed a certain trend; the silicon wafer weekly output and inventory showed certain fluctuations; the silicon wafer monthly demand showed a downward trend; the net export of single - crystal silicon wafers and polysilicon wafers showed certain fluctuations [70]. - **Cell**: The price of single - crystal P/N type cells showed a certain trend; the cell production scheduling and actual output showed certain fluctuations; the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cell external sales factories showed a downward trend; the photovoltaic cell opening rate showed a certain trend; the cell export showed an upward trend [73]. - **Photovoltaic Module**: The module price showed a certain trend; the domestic and European photovoltaic module inventories showed a downward trend; the module monthly output showed a downward trend; the module export showed an upward trend [76]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: The photovoltaic coating price, photovoltaic film import and export volume, photovoltaic glass monthly output, and export volume, high - purity quartz sand price, and welding strip import and export volume all showed certain fluctuations [79]. - **Component Composition Cost and Profit**: The silicon material cost, silicon wafer profit and cost, cell profit and cost, and component profit and cost of 210mm double - sided double - glass components all showed certain fluctuations [81]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: The national new power generation installed capacity, power generation structure and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation all showed certain trends [83].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月6日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡下跌，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，少量聚酯工厂补货，现货基差略走弱。本周货源在05-50附近成交， 月中少量在05-46~48成交，价格商谈区间在4970~5090。1月下在05-45附近有成交。仓单在05-40~45成交。今日主流现货基差在 05-49。中性 6、预期：近期伴随部分装置供应回归，PTA供需格局环比转弱，现货市场节后商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，预计短期内 PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，现货基差区间波动。关注油价波动及上下游装置变动。 MEG 每日观点 6、预期：近期受大风天气影响， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The December manufacturing PMI rose to the expansion range. The copper price hit a new high and fluctuated significantly at a high level, with geopolitical disturbances still existing [3]. - The global policy is loose and the mining end is in short supply, while the risks include natural disasters [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the short - term. Positive factors are geopolitical disturbances, Fed rate cuts, and slow mining production increase and mine reduction events; negative factors are the unexpected US comprehensive tariff and the suppression of downstream consumption by high copper prices [5]. - In terms of supply and demand balance, there will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [20]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - The supply side has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The December manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range, which is bullish [3]. Basis Analysis - The spot price is 100645, and the basis is - 705, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [3]. Inventory Analysis - On January 6, the copper inventory decreased by 2775 to 142550 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 33639 tons to 145342 tons compared with last week, showing a neutral situation [3]. - The bonded area inventory rebounded from a low level [14]. Market Trend Analysis - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, which is bullish [3]. Main Position Analysis - The main net position is long, and the long position increased, which is bullish [3]. Supply - Demand Balance Analysis - The 2024 China copper supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus, and 2025 is expected to be in a tight balance. The 2024 China copper production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance is 110000 tons [20][22]. Other Factors Analysis - Positive factors include geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, slow mining production increase, and the production reduction event in Freeport's Indonesian mining area [5]. - Negative factors include the unexpected US comprehensive tariff and the suppression of downstream consumption by high copper prices due to the not - optimistic global economy [5]. - The processing fee has declined [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年1月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续冲高。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿价格稳定，出船量受 天气影响，矿山看涨意愿强。镍铁价格持续反弹，成本线上升。不锈钢库存回落，短期受镍价影响。 精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货138150，基差4050，偏多 3、库存：LME库存255354，+72，上交所仓单38424，+758，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增，偏多 6、结论：沪镍2602：短线强势，空头观望，多头少量持有。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格略涨，短期镍矿价格 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-1-6 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，12月份，官方12月制造业PMI为50.1%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，时隔 8个月重回扩张区间。OPEC+1月4日发表声明， 8个主要产油国决定，维持2025年11月初制定的产 量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂停增产。1月3日 美军抓捕马杜罗，美国宣布"临时管理"并 计划引入本国油企修复委内瑞拉石油基础设施，预计国内原油化工品影响有限。供需端，农膜需 求持续偏弱，包装膜企业按需采购为主。当前LL交割品现货价6390（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-59，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存39.8 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2026年1月06日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货24150，基差+330；偏多。 3、库存：1月5日LME锌库存较上日减少475吨至105850吨，1月5日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少1045吨至41374吨；偏多。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic white sugar main contract 05 has entered a short - term adjustment mode, with support around 5200, and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 [4][7] - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the white sugar market. Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 26/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global white sugar production and supply surplus in the new season, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in foreign sugar prices [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - No information provided 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons, StoneX 370 tons, Czarnikow 740 tons, and DATAGRO 100 tons. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 88.3 tons, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.16 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 44 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 9 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 11.44 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.82 tons [4][7] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5360, with a basis of 103 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 79.14 tons, which is bearish [4] - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4] 3. Today's Focus - No information provided 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 season. StoneX predicts a surplus of 370 tons due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a surplus of 163 tons as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a surplus of 153 tons as global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [29] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Consumption**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - cane planting area, sugar - beet planting area, sugar - cane yield per unit area, sugar - beet yield per unit area, sugar production, and sugar imports are expected to change. In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 11.7 million tons, imports 5 million tons, consumption 15.7 million tons, and the balance change is an increase of 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [31] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. Due to the continuous decline in international sugar prices, the import profit was considerable [34] 5. Position Data - No information provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations remain tense, putting pressure on the prices of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, as it enters the production reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,254, with a basis of 398, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward-sloping. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,700 - 8,100. [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil in terms of the MPOB report. However, palm oil is entering the production increase season, so the supply will increase. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,480, with a basis of 8, showing a slight spot premium over futures. [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,300 - 8,700. [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Same MPOB report situation as above, and entering the production increase season with increased supply. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,926, with a basis of 882, indicating a significant spot premium over futures. [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,900 - 9,300. [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is also the palm oil tremor season factor. [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]