Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, cotton prices turned and accelerated their decline. The main reasons were the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiations and the upcoming new cotton harvest, with downstream buyers not willing to accept price increases [4]. - The Sino - US trade negotiations were postponed, which was below market expectations, leading to a general weakening of commodities. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton is about to shift to 01. Recently, the decline of 09 was greater than that of 01, and 01 started to trade at a premium to 09. Currently in the consumption off - season, and the market outlook for the "Golden September and Silver October" is unclear. The 01 contract should be treated with a weak and volatile mindset [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include a reduction in previous Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and a year - on - year decline in commercial inventories. Negative factors are the postponement of trade negotiations, the consumption off - season, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventories, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - This week, cotton prices dropped rapidly. The ICAC July report showed that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is expected to be 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The USDA July report indicated that the 25/26 season production is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. In June, China's textile and clothing exports were $27.31 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 30,000 tons of cotton in June, a year - on - year decrease of 82.1%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. The Ministry of Agriculture's July forecast for the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. 3.2 Daily Tips No information related to daily tips is provided in the report. 3.3 Today's Focus No information related to today's focus is provided in the report. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA July report, the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2578.3 tons, consumption is 2571.8 tons, and the ending inventory is 1683.5 tons. The ICAC report shows that the global cotton production in the 25/26 season is 2590 tons, and consumption is 2560 tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China in the 25/26 season is a production of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be between 15,000 - 17,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [13]. 3.5 Position Data No information related to position data is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the fundamentals of crude oil 2509, including factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment. It notes that although the previous concerns have slightly decreased, potential concerns continue to provide strong support for oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels, with short - term trading in the 526 - 536 range and long - term long positions held with a light position [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the US May crude production reached a record high; the basis shows a spot premium over futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish as API and EIA inventories increased; the 20 - day moving average is flat with price above, neutral;主力持仓 is bearish as WTI and Brent long positions decreased; short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate between 526 - 536, and long - term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump will maintain a 10% global minimum tariff, and imports from countries with trade surpluses with the US will face 15% or higher tariffs. Tariffs on various countries are determined, and market reaction in Asian morning trading was muted [5]. - US May crude production reached a record high of 1349 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.4 million barrels per day from April. OPEC members have also accelerated production increases since May, leading to concerns about supply surplus [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: potential US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports and increasing summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: continuous production increases by OPEC+ for three months and tense trade relations between the US and other economies [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of various crude oil types (Brent, WTI, SC, Oman) increased, with Oman crude rising 3.89% [7]. - Spot prices of various crude oil types (UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, Dubai) also increased, with UK Brent Dtd rising 2.88% [9]. - API inventory increased by 153.9 million barrels in the week ending July 25, while the expected decrease was 250 million barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventory increased by 769.8 million barrels in the week ending July 25, while the expected decrease was 128.8 million barrels [3][13]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude net long positions decreased to 153331 as of July 22, a decrease of 9096 [15]. - Brent crude net long positions also decreased as of July 22 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 8565 - 8955 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply side production schedule continues to increase, while the demand side shows continuous decline in silicon wafer, cell, and component production. Overall demand is in a state of continuous decline, and cost support remains stable. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 47770 - 50490 [10]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main bullish factors are cost - upward support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - reduction plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply and weak demand in downstream polysilicon [13][14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Viewpoint Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 78,000 tons, a 1.30% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 71,000 tons, a 4.05% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of 986 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 65.11%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level, with an import loss of 817 yuan/ton [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2027 yuan/ton, and cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On July 31, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 535,000 tons, a 2.19% decrease from the previous week. Sample enterprise inventory was 177,500 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. Main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for July is predicted to be 106,800 tons, a 5.74% increase from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 11GW, a 1.78% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% increase from the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. In July, the production schedule for silicon wafers, cells, and components all shows a decreasing trend [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9000 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On July 31, the price of N - type dense material was 45,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2630 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% decrease from the previous week, and it is at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the 09 contract price closed above the MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and long positions are increasing [11]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts generally decreased, with the 08 contract having the largest decline of 7.06% [17]. - Spot prices of different grades of silicon also decreased, with the price of East China non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon dropping by 2.05% [17]. - The 421 - 553 price difference increased by 20.00% [17]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with the 09 contract having a decline of 10.19% [19]. - The prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components remained mostly stable, with some slight changes in profit margins [19]. 3. Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The SI main contract basis and the 421 - 553 price difference in the industrial silicon market show certain trends over time [21]. 4. Inventory - Industrial silicon social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory have different trends, with social inventory decreasing and sample enterprise inventory increasing [17]. - Polysilicon weekly inventory decreased by 5.76% [19]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization show certain trends over time, with some regional differences in production and operating rates [29]. - Polysilicon production and monthly operating rates also show corresponding trends [63]. 6. Cost - Industrial silicon component costs, including electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrode prices, and some reducing agent prices, show different trends [34]. - Polysilicon industry costs also show certain trends over time [63]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the relationship between supply, demand, and inventory [38][42]. - Polysilicon monthly supply - demand balance tables show the relationship between consumption, exports, imports, supply, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Market Organic Silicon - DMC price, production, export, import, and inventory show different trends over time [44][49]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also show corresponding trends [46]. Aluminum Alloy - The prices, in - and - out - bound trade, inventory, production, and operating rates of aluminum alloy show different trends [52][56]. - The demand for aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries also shows corresponding trends [57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and operating rates of polysilicon and its downstream products (silicon wafers, cells, components) show different trends [62]. - The supply - demand balance of polysilicon and its downstream products also shows corresponding trends [65]. - The prices, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic films, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and solder strips show different trends [77]. - The cost and profit of polysilicon component components show corresponding trends [80]. - The new installed capacity, power generation composition, and new grid - connected capacity of photovoltaic power generation show different trends [81].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that methanol prices will mainly fluctuate this week. The MA2509 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton. In the port market, coal "anti - involution" reform supports coking coal futures, potentially boosting port methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability continue to pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a situation of weak supply and demand. Recent policies on eliminating backward production capacity and controlling coal mine over - production have a positive impact on the futures market and the mindset of inland operators, with the inland methanol market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For the methanol 2509 contract: - **Fundamentals**: In the port market, coal reform supports coking coal futures and may boost methanol prices, but upcoming concentrated imports may lead to inventory accumulation and limit price increases. In the inland market, the high - temperature off - season and poor downstream profitability pressure demand, but low factory inventories and expected raw material procurement by northwest CTO factories maintain a weak supply - demand balance. Recent policies have a positive impact on the futures market and inland operators' mindset, with the inland market expected to continue a stable and slightly stronger consolidation; rated neutral. - **Basis**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract is 15, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price; rated bullish. - **Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 65.03 tons, an increase of 6.32 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas increased by 4.05 tons to 36.63 tons; rated bullish. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the moving average; rated neutral. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing; rated bearish. - **Expectation**: Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract trading in the range of 2350 - 2430 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Long and Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Some domestic devices are shut down (e.g., Yulin Kaiyue, Xinjiang Xinya), Iranian methanol production has decreased, port inventory is at a low level, a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production, Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong's 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device is planned to be put into production this month, and northwest CTO factories are expected to purchase more methanol [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Some previously shut - down domestic devices have resumed production (e.g., Inner Mongolia Donghua), there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, MTBE operating rates have dropped significantly, coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is being actively sold, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot Market**: The price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region remained at 665 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port was at 277 US dollars/ton, and the import cost was 2447 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value. The price of methanol in Jiangsu decreased by 12 yuan to 2395 yuan/ton, and in Fujian, it decreased by 10 yuan to 2430 yuan/ton [8]. - **Futures Market**: The futures closing price was 2405 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous value, and the number of registered warehouse receipts was 8716, a decrease of 118 [8]. - **Spread Structure**: The basis was - 10 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan from the previous value, and the import spread was 42 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan from the previous value [8]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate was 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous value. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions all decreased [8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The inventory at East China ports was 42.48 tons, an increase of 0.81 tons from the previous value, and at South China ports, it was 22.55 tons, an increase of 5.51 tons from the previous value [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Baihai Zhonghao, etc. Different regions have various maintenance situations, such as shutdown for maintenance, planned or unplanned maintenance, and device load reduction [54]. - **Foreign Devices**: In Iran, some devices are in the process of restarting or have uncertain recovery status. In other countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Qatar, etc., most devices are operating normally, but some have experienced maintenance or have low operating rates [55]. - **Olefin Devices**: Some domestic olefin production enterprises with methanol - related operations are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units are under synchronous maintenance, while many other enterprises' units are operating stably, with some having future maintenance plans [56].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-08-01 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 ✸菜粕观点和策略 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 菜粕RM2509：2640至2700区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期维持区间震荡。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜 粕，但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2620，基差-79，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周1.51万吨，周环比增加25.83%，去年同期3.4万吨，同比减 少44.12%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc experiencing a volatile downward trend, closing with a negative candlestick, increased trading volume, a reduction in long - positions, and an increase in short - positions. The market may maintain a volatile weakening trend in the short term. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, but short - term indicators suggest a decline in bullish power and an increase in bearish power. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2509 will show a volatile weakening trend [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. Global zinc mine production from January to April was 4.0406 million tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The basis is +5 with a spot price of 22,350, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On July 31, LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants decreased by 174 tons to 15,058 tons, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile downward trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Market - On July 31, for the zinc futures contracts, the 2508 contract had a settlement price of 22,650, an opening price of 22,585, a high of 22,640, a low of 22,280, and a closing price of 22,355, with a decrease of 295 or 285. The trading volume was 14,662 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,736 to 11,618 lots. Similar data are provided for other contracts such as 2509, 2510, etc. [3]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - On July 31, the price of zinc concentrate in Lin was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet was 4,108 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe was 4,498 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Chenzhou was 7,694 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 3.4 Zinc Ingot Inventory - From July 17 to July 28, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 74,200 tons to 83,600 tons. Compared with July 21, it increased by 8,100 tons; compared with July 24, it increased by 2,800 tons [5]. 3.5 Zinc Warehouse Receipts - On July 31, the total SHFE zinc warehouse receipts were 15,058 tons, a decrease of 174 tons. The warehouse receipts in Tianjin decreased by 174 tons to 11,522 tons, while other regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang had relatively stable or zero - change warehouse receipt situations [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory - On July 31, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons [2][8]. 3.7 Zinc Ingot Smelter Prices - On July 31, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Smelting, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry, etc., all decreased by 380 yuan/ton [14]. 3.8 Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production for July is 470,300 tons [16]. 3.9 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees - On July 31, zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For example, in some regions with a 50% grade, the processing fees ranged from 3,400 - 4,000 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% grade had a processing fee of 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 3.10 Futures Company Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2509 on July 31, in terms of trading volume, the top three futures companies were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of long - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures. In terms of short - positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Yong'an Futures [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports an increase in biodiesel consumption. The domestic tariff on Canadian rapeseed has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level. Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400, palm oil P2509 in the range of 8600 - 9000, and rapeseed oil OI2509 in the range of 9300 - 9700 [3][5][6] Summary by Directory Soybean Oil - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that Malaysia's palm oil export data this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8360, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 11.7% [4] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [3] - Expectation: Soybean oil Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [5] - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 100, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - Inventory: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1% [5] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [5] - Expectation: Palm oil P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8600 - 9000 [5] Rapeseed Oil - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. The current export data has increased, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production season [6] - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [6] - Market: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6] - Main Position: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [6] - Expectation: Rapeseed oil OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7] -利空: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] - Main Logic: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [7] Supply and Demand - Supply: It includes imports of soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12] - Demand: It includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回落，已回到15000一线以下运行。现货下游观望情绪升温，成交清淡，主要影响 来自反内卷。产业链上，矿价小幅回落，海运费由于运力不足继续坚挺，镍铁价格有一定启稳，成本线 慢慢回升。不锈钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存继续回落。新能源汽车产销数据较好，有利于镍的 需求提升。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货121250，基差1420，偏多 3、库存：LME库存208692，+600，上交所仓单21705，-54，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, due to planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, the supply - demand outlook is expected to improve. With the significant increase in polyester sales last week and the alleviation of inventory pressure on polyester factories, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost side in the short term, and the basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the macro - commodity atmosphere and the fluctuation of downstream polyester load [5]. - For MEG, last week's concentrated arrivals at the main ports are expected to lead to a moderate increase in visible inventory at the beginning of this week. From a fundamental perspective, the supply - demand of MEG will shift to a tight balance in July - August, which is significantly better than the previous market expectations. Driven by the tightening of the supply side and a good macro - atmosphere, the price center of MEG will tend to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas device recovery [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures fluctuated and declined, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis weakened. The mainstream spot basis today is at 09 - 15. The PTA factory inventory is 3.82 days, a decrease of 0.17 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, changing from long to short [6]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated and weakened, and the market negotiation was average. During the night session, ethylene glycol was sorted in a narrow range, and a small amount of spot transactions were carried out at a premium of 65 - 68 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. The spot basis strengthened in the afternoon, and spot negotiations were around a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton over the 09 contract. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol weakened slightly. The inventory in the East China region is 42.74 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increased [8]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data, as well as changes in inventory and supply - demand gaps [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production rate, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data [12]. 5. PTA Daily View - The expected improvement in supply - demand due to planned maintenance in August and the alleviation of polyester factory inventory pressure are positive factors. However, from the demand side, the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand lead to a definite weakening trend in terminal demand [5][9]. 6. MEG Daily View - The short - term price center of MEG is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the recovery progress of overseas devices and the impact of weather and ship unloading progress on inventory [8]. 7. Impact Factor Summary - **Positive Factors**: Planned maintenance of some PTA devices in August, which is expected to improve the supply - demand situation [9]. - **Negative Factors**: On the demand side, the end of the export rush and the off - season of domestic demand lead to a weakening trend in terminal demand [9]. 8. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and when the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with the downward trend difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820. It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply - surplus situation will intensify [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.53%, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, also higher than the historical average. The 6% spodumene CIF price decreased daily and is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of imported spodumene concentrate is 68,893 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.87%, with a production profit of 2,075 yuan/ton; the cost of imported lepidolite is 76,215 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.75%, with a production loss of 7,136 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average. The salt lake end has sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 55,385 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 42,815 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.74%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Position**: The net short position of the main contract has decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expected Market**: The import volume of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31%. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 72,950 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 62.2%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34%. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% month - on - month [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% to 229,900 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 2.30% to 68,360 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 1.93% to 58,200 GWh [18].