Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The supply side of copper is disturbed with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The December manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, entering the expansion range. There are still geopolitical disturbances, and the copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level. Attention should be paid to position control [3] Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and December manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% indicate a bullish trend [3] - **Basis**: Spot price is 103,700 with a basis of - 1,620, showing a discount to futures, which is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 7, copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 33,639 tons to 145,342 tons compared with last week, considered neutral [3] - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, still bullish [3] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia has fermented. The copper price has reached a new high and fluctuates greatly at a high level [3] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positive Factors**: Global policy easing and tight mine supply, geopolitical disturbances in Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel, Fed rate cuts, and slow mine production increase with the Freeport Indonesia mine production cut event [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Unexpectedly high US tariffs and the global economic situation not being optimistic, with high copper prices suppressing downstream consumption [5] Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: There will be a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [21] - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2018 to 2024, production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data are presented, with a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [23] Other Information - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [15] - **Processing Fee**: The processing fee has declined [17]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the report is that the short - term trend of SHFE zinc ZN2602 is expected to fluctuate strongly. The fundamentals show a supply shortage, the basis is positive, inventory is decreasing, the trading volume is increasing, and the long - position is dominant, all of which support the upward movement of zinc prices [2][17] Summary by Related Catalogs Zinc Fundamentals - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] Zinc Futures Market on January 6 - The trading volume of zinc futures on January 6 was 326,282 lots, and the total trading value was 3.94248076 billion yuan. The open interest was 230,243 lots, an increase of 22,571 lots [3] Domestic Spot Market on January 6 - The domestic spot price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was 24,440 - 24,540 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,490 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 24,140 - 24,240 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,190 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 24,280 - 24,380 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,330 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang, it was 24,460 - 24,560 yuan/ton, with an average price of 24,510 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton [4] Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From December 25, 2025, to January 5, 2026, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 111,600 tons to 114,000 tons. Compared with December 29, it increased by 8,400 tons, and compared with December 31, it increased by 5,300 tons [5] Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on January 6 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on January 6 were 40,845 tons, a decrease of 529 tons compared with the previous day. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 302 tons, and in Tianjin decreased by 227 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory on January 6 - The LME zinc inventory on January 6 was 105,775 tons, a decrease of 75 tons compared with the previous day. The cancellation ratio was 7.42% [7] Zinc Concentrate Price on January 6 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in most regions were around 21,030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 270 yuan/ton. Only in Chifeng, it was 20,530 yuan/ton [8] Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on January 6 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from various smelters increased by 370 yuan/ton. For example, the price of Hunan Xiuzhou Smelter was 24,620 yuan/ton, and that of "Xuewen World" was 25,050 yuan/ton [11] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on January 6 - The domestic processing fee for 50% - grade zinc concentrate was between 1,300 - 2,100 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 40 - 60 US dollars/kiloton [15] SHFE Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on January 6 - The total trading volume of SHFE members was 283,114 lots, an increase of 58,886 lots. The total long - position was 66,575 lots, an increase of 6,743 lots, and the total short - position was 67,932 lots, an increase of 3,560 lots [16]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - The cotton market is currently influenced by both positive and negative factors. In the short - term, the main 05 contract is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, with a possibility of回调 after continuous rapid surges [4][5]. - Positive factors include potential reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area by over 10% in 2026, a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises, and favorable factors such as basis and market trends [4][5][6]. - Negative factors are the overall decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, large - scale listing of new cotton, and the traditional off - season for consumption [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10%. According to the USDA December report, the 2025/2026 production is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. Cotton imports in November were 120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%; yarn imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons. Overall, it is bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,711, and the basis for the 05 contract is 856, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast of China's ending inventory is 8.35 million tons, which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net long position is increasing, and the main trend is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The main factors for the current rebound are a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, increased export volume, enhanced replenishment willingness of downstream enterprises due to rising cotton prices, and significant reduction in Xinjiang cotton planting area in the new year. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it will continue to fluctuate upward, with a higher probability of回调 after continuous rapid surges [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Forecast**: In December, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 26.081 million tons, consumption is 25.823 million tons, imports are 9.522 million tons, exports are 9.524 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons [11][12]. - **ICAC Forecast**: In November 2025, the global cotton production in 2025/2026 is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 9.71442 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [14]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/2026, production is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton. The market will be influenced by the game between macro - sentiment and fundamental reality. Although the Venezuela attack event has brought short - term risk premiums and boosted market sentiment, the current fundamental support is not strong. Domestic enterprise operating rates remain high, some downstream demand is slow, and port inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - For methanol 2605, the fundamentals show that although the Venezuela attack event has not directly pushed up crude oil futures, it has brought short - term risk premiums. However, the current fundamental support is weak. The domestic enterprise operating rate is stable above 80%, some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, and the upstream maintains a low - inventory sales strategy. The traditional downstream demand in winter is slow to follow up, and some downstream enterprises have shut down. The market is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile trend. The basis shows that the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a basis of 30 for the 05 contract, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price. As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has increased significantly by 113,200 tons to 1.1316 million tons, and the overall available methanol supply in coastal areas has increased by 39,300 tons to 634,400 tons. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the average. The main positions are net short, with an increase in short positions. It is expected that the methanol price will show a moderately strong and volatile trend this week, with the MA2605 contract oscillating between 2,180 - 2,270 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: Some devices have shut down, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinyae; the methanol operating rate in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late May; some CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed operation, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua; there are expected to be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month; formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - based methanol has a certain profit margin and is currently actively selling; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventories due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 693 yuan/ton, CFR China Main Port is 258 US dollars/ton, the import cost is 2,247 yuan/ton, CFR Southeast Asia is 321 US dollars/ton. The spot prices in different regions of China have changed to varying degrees, with Jiangsu rising by 1.74% to 2,220 yuan/ton, Shandong remaining unchanged at 2,310 yuan/ton, Hebei remaining unchanged at 2,055 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia rising by 2.64% to 1,848 yuan/ton, and Fujian rising by 1.13% to 2,235 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract is 2,215 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous period. The basis is 5 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from the previous period. The import spread is 3 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous period [8][9][11]. - **Operating Rate Data**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, down 3.81% from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions have also changed, with East China remaining unchanged at 80.65%, Shandong dropping by 2.39% to 68.71%, Southwest dropping by 1.22% to 44.06%, and Northwest dropping by 3.55% to 81.54% [8]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory in East China ports is 755,900 tons, an increase of 26,400 tons from the previous period, and the inventory in South China ports is 412,700 tons, an increase of 10,600 tons from the previous period [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Device Maintenance**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or shutdown status. For example, Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling and other enterprises' devices are in maintenance, with different maintenance start and end times and maintenance losses [57]. - **Foreign Device Maintenance**: Some foreign methanol production enterprises' devices are also in different operating states. For example, some Iranian enterprises' devices are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and some enterprises in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, the United States and other countries' devices are operating normally or have completed maintenance [58]. - **Olefin Device Maintenance**: Some olefin production enterprises' devices are in maintenance or normal operation. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin devices are in synchronous maintenance, while some enterprises such as Yan'an Energy and Shenhua Yulin are operating stably [59].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards supply - dominated. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 123,900 - 130,120 yuan/ton. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [9][13]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 22,420 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.16%, equal to the historical average. In December 2025, the output was 99,200 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 97,970 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.23%. The import volume in December 2025 was 26,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.46% [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 99,894 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,581 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.22%. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The cost of externally purchased spodumene concentrate is 118,137 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - day flat rate, and the production income is 696 yuan/ton, showing a profit. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica is 116,523 yuan/ton, a daily - on - day increase of 1.71%, and the production income is - 1,177 yuan/ton, showing a loss. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation [9][10]. - **Other Indicators**: The fundamentals are neutral, the basis on January 5 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 119,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract is - 10,480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 0.15% month - on - month, equal to the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 119,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.84% [15]. - **Supply and Demand Data**: On the supply side, the monthly total output of lithium carbonate in December 2025 was 99,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.04%. The import volume of lithium concentrate increased by 27.59% month - on - month, and the import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.64% month - on - month. On the demand side, the monthly output of some downstream products decreased, but the monthly total battery loading volume of power batteries increased by 11.18% month - on - month [18].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2026年1月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 | 据隆众统计 2025年12月PVC产量为213 7356万吨 环比增加2 79%； ， ， . ， . 样本企业产能利用率为78 63% 环比增加0 02个百分点 电石法企业产量33 815万吨 ； . ， . . | 本周 ， | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 环比减少0 | 17% 乙烯法企业产量14 571万吨 环比增加6 51%； 本周供给压力有所增加 . , . ， . 下周预计检修有所减少 预计排产少量增加 ， 。 | ； | | | | 需求端来看 | 下游整体开工率为4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the research report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production was 2158,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 29.3624%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.78 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 490,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.39%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 961,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 27.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of building asphalt was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction rate of modified asphalt was 7.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 20%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 25%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39%. The asphalt processing profit remained flat, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Comprehensive Judgment**: Fundamentals are bearish; the basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish; inventory is neutral; the disk is bullish; the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2603 will fluctuate in the range of 3105 - 3161 [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure [8]. - **Demand - side**: Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations [9]. - **Cost - side**: Crude oil is weakening, and cost support will weaken in the short term [9]. - **Likely Factors**: Relatively high crude oil costs provide some support [11]. - **Negative Factors**: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12]. - **Main Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, and demand recovery is weak [13]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of contracts from 01 to 05 all increased, with increases ranging from 3.13% to 3.89%. The basis of contracts from 01 to 05 showed different degrees of change [16]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 770,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. Factory inventory was 572,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.18%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 650,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38.30% [9][16]. - **Profit**: The daily asphalt processing profit was 188.99 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 627.0286 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 4.39% [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt basis in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 to 2026, which helps investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads between asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2026, which is useful for spread trading analysis [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2026, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt crack spreads against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2026, which is beneficial for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2026, which can be used to analyze the relative value of these commodities [33][34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2026, helping to understand the spot market situation [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2026 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly shipment volumes of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2026 [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2026 [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2026 [49][50]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Marey crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2026 [52][54]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [55][56]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of weekly asphalt operating rates from 2021 to 2026 [58][59]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimate**: The report shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimates from 2018 to 2026 [61][62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2026 [64][65][66]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2026 [68][69]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio from 2018 to 2026 [71][72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - **Asphalt Export and Import Trends**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 [74][75]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2026 [77][78][79]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical trends of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 [86][87]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 to 2025 [89]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2026 [95][96]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt operating rates from 2019 to 2026 [98][99]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report shows the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2026 [100][101][103]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2026, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [106][107].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For Coking Coal**: The supply of coking coal has improved after some mines resumed production after the New Year's Day. However, due to the influence of coke price cuts, coking coal prices have been falling, and new orders have declined. With the squeeze on coking profits, the signal of coking coal price cuts is obvious, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. In the short term, due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream coking and steel enterprises have increased maintenance and production cuts, and the demand for raw coal has declined. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly [2]. - **For Coke**: The current profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, and some coke enterprises in some areas have fallen into losses, with a small number of coke enterprises limiting production. Although the daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, the supply of coke is still relatively loose, and steel mills still have a strong willingness to reduce prices. With the raw material price still falling slightly, it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Daily Views - Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: After the New Year's Day, the supply has improved, but prices have fallen due to coke price cuts, and new orders have decreased. Downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is limited [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1100, and the basis is 19.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week, including 801 tons in steel mills, 295 tons in ports, and 861 tons in independent coke enterprises [2]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day line [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, and the short position increases [3]. - **Expectation**: Due to winter environmental protection requirements, downstream demand has declined, and it is expected that the short - term price will run weakly [2]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and limited supply growth; bearish factors include slowdown in raw coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. **Daily Views - Coke** - **Fundamentals**: The profits of coke enterprises are continuously compressed, some are in losses, and a small number are limiting production. The daily consumption of coke by steel mills has increased slightly, and the shipment of coke enterprises has improved [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1590, and the basis is - 58.5, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week, including 626 tons in steel mills, 187 tons in ports, and 45 tons in independent coke enterprises [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net long, and the long position decreases [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply of coke is relatively loose, steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices, and it is expected that coke will run weakly in the short term [6]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include rising hot metal production and rising blast furnace operating rate; bearish factors include squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial overdraft of replenishment demand [8]. **Price** The prices of metallurgical coke in various ports on January 5th (17:30) are provided, with most prices showing a decline of 10 [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Independent coke enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises in the country is 74.48% [40]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [44].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Report Author: Zhu Tianyi from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory continues to decline, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. However, the overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is - 48, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (- 5.5), showing a neutral situation. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is a bullish sign. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. Industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, inventory is being destocked, but the overall domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, and the comprehensive inventory continues to decline. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement, and the overall procurement is not active. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are stable, and the reserve demand continues to slow down. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, and recent information on new export quotas still affects the futures market. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1720 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis Analysis - The UR2605 contract basis is - 48, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.8%, which is bearish [4]. Inventory Analysis - The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons (- 5.5), showing a neutral situation [4]. Futures Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is a bullish sign [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate and rebound. Industrial demand is mainly based on on - demand procurement, inventory is being destocked, but the overall domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Inventory de - stocking [5]. - Bearish factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1720, with a change of + 10. The Shandong spot price is 1720, with a change of + 10. The Henan spot price is 1720, with no change. The FOB China price is 2794 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1768, with a change of + 19. The basis is - 48, with a change of - 9. The price of UR01 is 1682, with a change of + 21. The price of UR05 is 1768, with a change of + 19. The price of UR09 is 1730, with a change of + 15 [6]. Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 12,376, with a change of - 5. The UR comprehensive inventory is 119.1 million tons, with a change of - 0.0. The UR factory inventory is 101.9 million tons, with a change of - 0.0. The UR port inventory is 17.2 million tons, with a change of - 0.0 [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2026-1-6） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，总体供需宽松，港口库存累库，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价853，基差56；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价879，基差82，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存16721.79万吨，环比增加，同比增加；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，港口累库，震荡偏空思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁矿石期 ...