沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 利空： 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20930，基差20，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周跌2749吨至 122028吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. In addition, force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. In terms of inventory, the LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025 [11]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper decreased by 1.77% and closed at 84,390 yuan per ton. Geopolitical factors, US tariff issues, and global uncertainties affected copper prices. Force majeure in Indonesian copper mines and a significant increase in precious metals prices stimulated a sharp rise in copper prices. Domestically, consumption is entering the peak season, but the downstream consumption willingness is currently average. In the industrial sector, domestic spot trading is average, mainly driven by rigid demand. The LME copper inventory was 137,225 tons, slightly decreasing from the previous week, while the SHFE copper inventory increased by 550 tons to 110,240 tons compared to the previous week [4]. 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 PMI - No specific information provided 3.2.2 Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market will be in a tight balance in 2024 and face an oversupply situation in 2025. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows the production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance of copper from 2018 to 2024 [11][14]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Exchange inventory is in a destocking phase. Bonded area inventory remains at a low level [15][18]. 3.3 Market Structure 3.3.1 Processing Fees - Processing fees are at a low level [21]. 3.3.2 CFTC Positions - There is an outflow of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC [23]. 3.3.3 Spot - Futures Price Difference - No specific information provided 3.3.4 Import Profits - No specific information provided 3.3.5 Warehouse Receipts - No specific information provided

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Supply surplus and global economic slowdown concerns are pushing US crude oil prices towards the lowest level since the post - COVID - 19 recovery. The simultaneous increase in production by the US and OPEC has exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. Geopolitical factors, such as Trump's plan to meet with Putin again, have alleviated the risk sentiment in the crude oil market, accelerating the decline in oil prices. The Indian attitude towards stopping the purchase of Russian oil is unclear. The domestic crude oil has reached the lowest level of the year, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. The SC2511 contract is expected to trade in the range of 430 - 440, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: Trump plans to meet with Putin to discuss ending the Ukraine war; Indian refineries may reduce Russian oil purchases from December; Saudi Aramco CEO warns of potential supply shortages if the industry doesn't increase exploration and investment [3]. - **Basis**: On October 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $63.51 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.11 per barrel. The basis was $28.63 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels. As of October 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.211 million barrels, a decrease of 1.9 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in WTI crude oil increased; as of October 7, the long positions in Brent crude oil decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Short - term price is weak, SC2511 trades in the 430 - 440 range, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3.2 Recent News - US WTI crude oil futures closed at $56.99 per barrel on Thursday, down 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. In the past year, it has fallen by 19%. The increase in production by OPEC and the US has led to a supply surplus. Lower oil prices benefit US consumers but pose challenges to the US oil industry [5]. - US oil producers reached a daily production of over 13.6 million barrels in July, and it is expected to remain at this level by the end of the year [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: The Russia - Ukraine conflict threatens refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased; there is a risk of US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further increasing production [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a long - term risk of increased supply [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The prices of various types of crude oil have changed. For example, the price of UK Brent crude oil decreased from $63.13 to $62.08, a decrease of 1.66% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October show fluctuations in inventory levels. For example, API inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels in the week ending October 10, and EIA inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels [10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: The net long positions of WTI crude oil funds have changed over time. As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: The net long positions of Brent crude oil funds have also changed. As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating, but suggests a short - term bearish outlook for fuel oil [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Asian fuel oil market is expected to have sufficient supply in November due to high existing inventories and continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products. High - sulfur fuel oil refining profit recovery has curbed refinery raw material demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore has faced downward pressure on upstream valuation due to sufficient inventory and weak demand. With international oil prices falling, and considering geopolitical and trade factors, fuel oil is under pressure and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Specifically, FU2601 is expected to operate bearishly in the 2620 - 2680 range, and LU2512 in the 3080 - 3130 range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The current situation of fuel oil: The fundamentals show sufficient supply in Asia in November. The basis indicates that the spot is at par with the futures. The inventory in Singapore increased by 1740000 barrels to 22359000 barrels in the week of October 15. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. High - sulfur main positions are short and increasing, while low - sulfur main positions are long and decreasing. The expected short - term trend is bearish, with FU2601 in the 2620 - 2680 range and LU2512 in the 3080 - 3130 range [3]. - Futures price changes: The FU main contract futures price dropped from 2714 to 2669, a decrease of 45 or 1.66%. The LU main contract futures price dropped from 3216 to 3158, a decrease of 58 or 1.80%. The FU basis increased from 24 to 26, an increase of 2 or 9.13%, and the LU basis decreased from 36 to - 6, a decrease of 41 or 115.90% [5]. - Spot price changes: The prices of Zhoushan high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil remained unchanged. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 367.61 to 369.75, an increase of 2.14 or 0.58%. The Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil price decreased from 435.50 to 430.60, a decrease of 4.90 or 1.13%. The Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from 344.12 to 345.51, an increase of 1.39 or 0.40%. The Singapore diesel price decreased from 620.96 to 618.06, a decrease of 2.90 or 0.47% [6]. 3.2 Long - Short Focus - Bullish factors: Russia has extended its fuel export restrictions [4]. - Bearish factors: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the relationship between the US and Russia has eased after their talks [4]. - Market drivers: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The fundamentals of fuel oil are summarized as neutral, mainly due to sufficient supply in Asia, high existing inventories, continuous inflow of Russian high - sulfur products, and the impact of refining profit recovery on refinery raw material demand [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - The report does not provide specific analysis of spread data, only shows the change in the basis of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil futures [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from August 6 to October 15 shows fluctuations. In the week of October 15, the inventory was 22359000 barrels, an increase of 1740000 barrels [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol market shows regional differences. The inland market has declined significantly, while the port market has shown a slight firmness. The short - term domestic market is expected to have a narrow - range adjustment. It is predicted that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 operating in the range of 2250 - 2345 [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, the fundamentals show that the inland market has a large decline, and the port market is slightly firm. The basis is neutral, inventory is slightly bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and it is expected to fluctuate this week [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely factors**: Some plants such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have shut down; Iranian methanol production has decreased and port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong plans to be put into production this month; Northwest CTO plants are buying methanol externally [6]. - **Bearish factors**: Some previously shut - down plants such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed production; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operating rate has dropped significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling; some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Spot price**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2320 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 1, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - **Inventory**: As of October 16, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 1258,900 tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas has decreased by 63,400 tons to 877,000 tons [5]. - **Price and spread**: The closing price of the futures main contract is 2319 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous day; the basis is - 22 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton; the import spread is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [8]. - **Operating rate**: The national weighted average operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Heima, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. The maintenance periods vary, and some are planned, while others are due to faults or limited gas supply [59]. - **Foreign plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have reduced production, and some plants in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are operating normally or have specific operating conditions [60]. - **Olefin plants**: Some domestic olefin plants are under maintenance or have specific operating conditions, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, which started methanol and olefin maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points. The shipments of sample enterprises decreased by 29.38% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 2.98% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment increased by 1.96% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane is either decreasing or flat month - on - month and lower than the historical average [9]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The strengthening of crude oil is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Overall expectation: The fundamentals are bullish, the basis is bullish, the inventory is neutral, the market is bearish, and the main positions are bearish. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2601 contract will fluctuate in the range of 3258 - 3300 [9][10][11]. - Influencing factors: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs; bearish factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand with strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [13][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: The supply pressure remains high, and refineries have reduced production to relieve supply pressure [8][15]. - Demand side: The demand recovery is weak, and the overall demand is lower than the historical average [9][15]. - Cost side: The strengthening of crude oil provides short - term support, and the asphalt processing loss has decreased [9]. - Market expectation: Narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2601 contract fluctuating between 3258 - 3300 [10]. - Influencing factors: Bullish: relatively high crude oil costs; Bearish: insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand [13][14]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - side Data - Planned production: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [8]. - Capacity utilization rate: This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 37.0326%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.14 percentage points [8]. - Shipments: The shipments of sample enterprises were 221,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.38% [8]. - Output: The output of sample enterprises was 618,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.98% [8]. - Maintenance volume: The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 625,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [8]. 3.2.2 Demand - side Data - Downstream开工 rates: The开工 rates of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane are all lower than the historical average, with some showing month - on - month decreases [9]. 3.2.3 Cost - side Data - Processing profit: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 345.85 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 24.00%; the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 882.4386 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 12.29% [9]. 3.2.4 Inventory Data - Social inventory: 1.058 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.30% [11]. - Factory inventory: 690,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.48% [11]. - Port diluted asphalt inventory: 120,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.69% [11]. 3.2.5 Market Data - Futures prices: The prices of different contracts showed varying degrees of increase or decrease [18]. - Basis: On October 16, the spot price in Shandong was 3420 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 258 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [11]. - Main positions: The main positions were net short, and short positions increased [11].

Report Header - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with expected weak and volatile trends for both today [4][6] - For LLDPE and PP, factors such as geopolitical unrest provide cost support, while weak demand, new capacity in Q4, and Sino - US trade risks are negative factors [5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 points from last month, with improved but still contracting manufacturing. The long - term "supply increase, demand decrease" pattern of crude oil offers limited cost support. After Trump's tariff threat on October 10, oil prices dropped. With fewer plant overhauls, production increased. Agricultural film operations were stable, and other film demand was good due to the approaching Double 11. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6950 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2601 contract basis is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 54.3 tons (+11.3), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with falling oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable agricultural film operations, and moderately high industrial inventory [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 points. The long - term crude oil pattern offers limited cost support. After the tariff threat, oil prices dropped. There is sufficient supply, with good performance in plastic weaving due to the peak season and weak pipe demand. The current PP delivery spot price is 6560 (-40), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The PP 2601 contract basis is - 35, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, bearish [6] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 68.1 tons (+16.1), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile today, with falling oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new capacity coming online, stable downstream average operating rates, and moderately high industrial inventory [6] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current delivery spot price is 6950 (-10), the 01 contract price is 6910 (-8), the basis is 40 (-2), the import US dollar price is 823 (-5), the import conversion price is 7221 (-42), and the import price difference is - 271 (32). The warehouse receipt is 12707 (-10), PE comprehensive factory inventory is 54.3 tons, and social inventory is 52.5 tons [8] - **PP**: The current delivery spot price is 6560 (-40), the 01 contract price is 6595 (-7), the basis is - 35 (-33), the import US dollar price is 820 (-5), the import conversion price is 7195 (-42), and the import price difference is - 635 (2). The warehouse receipt is 13814 (0), PP comprehensive factory inventory is 68.1 tons, and social inventory is 37.2 tons [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, and consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Gold: Due to tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, gold prices continued to reach new highs. The upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged, with the Shanghai gold premium slightly converging to -3.5 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment significantly rising [4]. - Silver: Affected by tariff concerns and interest - rate cut expectations, silver prices also reached new highs. Although the increase in silver prices was not significantly enlarged, the upward trend remained unchanged, and the Shanghai silver premium converged to -125 yuan/gram, with domestic silver price sentiment stable [5]. - Logic: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices were difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly followed gold prices. Tariff concerns had a stronger impact on silver prices, increasing the risk of a larger increase in silver prices [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: US stocks fell, European stocks rose, US bond yields declined (10 - year US bond yield fell 5.94 basis points to 3.973%), the US dollar index dropped 0.31% to 98.36, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar appreciated slightly. COMEX gold futures rose 3.40% to $4344.3 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, COMEX silver futures rose 3.99% to $53.43 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was -1.82, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms (bearish). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased (bullish) [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures (neutral). Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms (neutral). The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average (bullish). The main net position was long, and the main long position increased (bullish) [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Events: Speech by Japanese central bank deputy governor Uchida Masakazu at 14:35; speech by RBA deputy governor Hauser at 15:15; release of Eurozone September CPI final value at 17:00; speech by Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill at 17:35; possible release of US September new home starts and other data at 20:30; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member and German central bank president Nagel and German finance minister Kingbeil at 20:45; release of Italian central bank quarterly economic report at 21:00; speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Greene at 00:00 the next day; speech by St. Louis Fed President Musalem at 00:15 the next day; speech by Bank of England deputy governor Breeden at 00:30 the next day; speech by European Central Bank Governing Council member Olli Rehn at 01:00 the next day; release of US August international capital flow at 04:00 the next day [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis was -1.82, and the gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 5862 kilograms to 80961 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis was -27, and the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 48174 kilograms to 982255 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position was long, but the main long position decreased [4]. - Silver: The main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has a weak fundamental outlook, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with many supply - side disturbances due to policies in the Shahe area, but weak downstream deep - processing orders and sluggish real - estate terminal demand [3]. - The basis shows that the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, with a basis of - 31 yuan [3]. - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.276 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [3]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - The main position is net short, with a reduction in short positions [3]. - The glass market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [3]. 3.2 Influence Factor Summary 3.2.1利多 - Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [5]. - The "coal - to - gas" conversion of some production lines in the Shahe area has increased supply - side disturbances [5]. 3.2.2利空 - The real - estate terminal demand remains weak, and the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period [6]. - The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original film inventory [6]. 3.3 Main Logic - Glass supply has declined to a relatively low level compared to the same period, with increasing supply - side disturbances recently, but the terminal demand recovery is weak. It is expected that the glass market will fluctuate [7]. 3.4 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract increased by 1.59% to 1147 yuan/ton, the Shahe safety large - board spot price decreased by 0.71% to 1116 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 520% to - 31 yuan/ton [8]. 3.5 Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. 3.6 Fundamental - Cost Side No specific content is summarized in the provided report. 3.7 Fundamental - Production and Capacity - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 161,300 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable recovery [26]. 3.8 Fundamental - Demand - In August 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.8602 million tons [30]. 3.9 Fundamental - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 64.276 million weight boxes, an increase of 2.31% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [46]. 3.10 Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [47].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand significantly, with both industrial and agricultural demand being weak. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the UR contract will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - The main logic lies in the marginal changes of international prices and domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level. Enterprise inventories are accumulating, and inventories have increased in many provinces such as Gansu and Hebei. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea supply-demand imbalance is still significant. The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate weakly. The international urea price is strong, but it has limited support for the domestic price. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand significantly. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: International prices are strong [5]. - **Negative Factors**: High daily production and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1540 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1550 (unchanged), and the Henan spot price is 1540 (unchanged). The FOB China price is 2749 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the 01 contract is 1600 (+3), the price of the UR05 contract is 1669 (-2), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1702 (-5). The basis of the UR2601 contract is -60, with a premium/discount ratio of -3.9% [4][6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.859 million tons (+174,000 tons), including 1.444 million tons of UR manufacturer inventory and 415,000 tons of UR port inventory [4][6]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production volume, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased [9].