交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-7-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方面，日产及 开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开 工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品 现货1820（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差76，升贴水比例4.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：近期尿素主力合约盘面震荡， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by cost support and macro - policy promotion on the positive side, while weak demand is a negative factor [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote stable growth in key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is weak overall, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film showing slight improvement. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7400 (+30), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 15, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The downstream demand is in the off - season, affected by high summer temperatures and heavy rainfall, the demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7150 (-0), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 10, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.1%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract has been fluctuating recently. Driven by the macro - stable growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes, plastic weaving, etc., and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that the PP will fluctuate today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policy promotion are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor. The main logic is based on cost - demand and domestic macro - policy promotion [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7400 (+30), the 09 contract price is 7385 (+50), the basis is 15 (-20), the warehouse receipt is 5816 (0), and the PE comprehensive inventory is 56.3 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7150 (0), the 09 contract price is 7160 (+30), the basis is - 10 (-30), the warehouse receipt is 12895 (+200), and the PP comprehensive inventory is 58.1 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 17.8%, and the consumption growth rate in 2019 was 14.3% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend with fluctuations. For example, the production capacity growth rate in 2020 was 15.5%, and the consumption growth rate in 2020 was 17.9% [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-30 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪仍存；碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳， 光伏日熔量大幅下滑，终端需求走弱，纯碱厂库处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1350元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1318元/吨，基差为32元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存186.46万吨，较前一周减少2.15%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，政策利好情绪仍存，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： | 日盘 | 主力合约收盘价 | 重质纯碱：沙河低 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Morning Report - July 30, 2025 [1] - Author: Dushufang from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the "constructive talks" between China, the US, and Sweden, the tariff truce is temporarily maintained. The two markets opened lower and closed higher yesterday, with late - session rallies. Innovation drug medical, steel and other sectors led the gains, and market hotspots rotated. Banks and insurance continued to adjust. The index is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend, but market volatility may increase, and intraday chasing of highs is not recommended [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - **IH Contracts**: IH2508 had a contract price of 2,812.60 with a 0.33% increase, and a volume of 11,112. It had a 4.01 - point premium. The IH main contract showed a reduction in long positions [2][3]. - **IF Contracts**: IF2508 had a contract price of 4,152.80, a 0.57% increase, and a volume of 24,227. It had a 0.78 - point premium. The IF main contract showed an increase in long positions [2][3]. - **IC Contracts**: IC2508 had a contract price of 6,317.80, a 0.68% increase, and a volume of 23,067. It had a 38.33 - point discount. The IC main contract showed a reduction in long positions [2][3]. - **IM Contracts**: IM2508 had a contract price of 6,731.00, a 0.84% increase, and a volume of 38,521. It had a 42.88 - point discount [3]. 2. Spot Market - **Important Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, Wind All - A, CSI 500, Shenzhen Component Index, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index had different daily percentage changes, with the ChiNext Index having the highest increase of 1.86% [11]. - **Style Indexes**: Different style indexes such as the 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, Low - P/E Index, etc., also had varying daily percentage changes, with the 300 Growth index having a 2.59% increase [14][17]. 3. Market Structure - **AH - Share Premium**: The Hang Seng AH Premium Index showed fluctuations from November 2024 to July 2025 [20]. - **P/E Ratio**: The P/E ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were presented over a long - term period [22]. - **P/B Ratio**: The P/B ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index were shown over a long - term period [24]. 4. Market Fundamentals - **Stock Market Inflows**: The net inflow of A - share funds and the CSI 300 index were presented over a long - term period [26]. - **Margin Trading Balance**: The margin trading balance and the CSI 300 index were presented over a long - term period [28]. - **Northbound Capital**: The net inflow of northbound capital was presented over a long - term period [30]. - **Fund Cost**: The SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates were presented from November 2024 to July 2025 [36]. 5. Market Sentiment - **Trading Activity**: The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index (based on free - floating market capitalization) were presented over a long - term period [39][42][43]. - **Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions**: Data on public - offering hybrid fund positions were presented, but no specific details were provided in the text [44]. 6. Other Data - **Dividend Yield and Bond Yield**: The dividend yields of stock index futures and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield were presented over a long - term period [48]. - **Exchange Rate**: The USD - CNY exchange rate was presented from May 2021 to July 2025 [49].

Group 1: Report Core View - Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bond yields generally rose by about 4bp; Treasury bond futures closed sharply lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.78% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.25%. The yields of bank "secondary and perpetual bonds" generally rose by about 4bp. The central bank made continuous net injections in the open market, and the short - term liquidity in the inter - bank market further eased. The weighted average rate of DR001 dropped by about 10bp to around 1.36%. Recently, the sharply falling commodity futures showed signs of stabilizing, and the stock market continued to fluctuate strongly, expanding its gains in the afternoon, suppressing the risk - aversion sentiment. In addition, rumors about the Politburo meeting focusing on "anti - involution" also had a certain negative impact. Continued attention should be paid to the final meeting content and the progress of China - US negotiations [3] - On July 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 449.2 billion yuan, and the winning volume was 449.2 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on that day, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan for the day [3] - The main basis of TS is 0.0139, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TF is 0.0286, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of T is 0.1589, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TL is 0.3153, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3] - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively; it is neutral [4] - The main contract of TS is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of TF is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of T is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - The main contract of TS has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of TF has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of T has a net long position, and the long position decreases [5] - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded, the year - on - year CPI turned positive, and the core CPI continued to rise. China's LPR in July remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In the first half of the year, the total financial volume increased reasonably, and China's credit total... (incomplete information in the original text) [6] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contract market element table shows that for T2509, the current price is 108.130, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 77,800, an open interest of 187,214, a daily open - interest change of - 625, and the CTD bond is 240013.IB; for TF2509, the current price is 105.545, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 59,900, an open interest of 148,330, a daily open - interest change of - 32, and the CTD bond is 240001.IB; for TS2509, the current price is 102.302, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 40,300, an open interest of 98,505, a daily open - interest change of - 2929, and the CTD bond is 240012.IB; for TL2509, the current price is 117.87, down 0.78%, with a trading volume of 140,800, an open interest of 120,771, a daily open - interest change of + 488, and the CTD bond is 200012.IB [9] Group 3: Cash Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank Treasury bond yields and Treasury bond term spreads, but specific numerical analysis is not clearly summarized in the given text [10][14] Group 4: Basis Analysis - There are basis analysis charts for T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 CTD bonds, showing the basis trends from December 16, 2024, to May 20, 2025 [17][18][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector, and the domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [3][5][6] - The current main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in May decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 174, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the soybean oil main contract have decreased [3] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9030, with a basis of 60, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the palm oil main contract have increased [5] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [5] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less-than-expected production cuts, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 108, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward [6] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the rapeseed oil main contract have decreased [6] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply, and it is the palm oil production cut season [7] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate, the macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7] Supply - The report mentions the supply aspects of imported soybean inventory [8], soybean oil inventory [10], soybean meal inventory [12], oil mill soybean crushing [14], palm oil inventory [19], rapeseed oil inventory [22], rapeseed inventory [24], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [26] Demand - The report mentions the apparent consumption of soybean oil [16]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年7月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘小幅反弹，价格在5日均线与20日均线之间震荡运行。现货下游观望情绪升温，成交清 淡，主要影响来自反内卷。产业链上，矿价小幅回落，海运费由于运力不足继续坚挺，镍铁价格有一定 启稳，成本线慢慢回升。不锈钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存继续回落。新能源汽车产销数据较好， 有利于镍的需求提升。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货122450，基差650，偏多 3、库存：LME库存204912，+876，上交所仓单21880，-73，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 不锈钢 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. The basis shows a premium over futures, also neutral. Copper inventories increased on July 29, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased last week, which is neutral. The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average with the average moving downward, suggesting a bearish trend. The main positions are net long but the long positions are decreasing, showing a bullish tendency. Considering factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption in the off - season, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Smelting enterprises cut production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, June manufacturing PMI is 49.5% (unchanged from last month), manufacturing sentiment is stable, neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 78985, basis is 145, premium over futures, neutral [3]. - Inventory: On July 29, copper inventory increased by 225 to 127625 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons last week, neutral [3]. - Disk: Closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average is moving downward, bearish [3]. - Main positions: Main net positions are long but long positions are decreasing, bullish [3]. - Expectation: Fed rate - cuts slow down, inventories rise, geopolitical disturbances remain, off - season consumption is under pressure, copper prices will fluctuate and adjust [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis -利多: Domestic policy easing [4]. -利空: Trade war escalation [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it will be in a tight balance [21]. - China's annual supply - demand balance table shows different production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024 [23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-30） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：产地煤矿的生产情况不稳定，炼焦煤供应恢复缓慢。受盘面大跌影响，市场情绪有所下滑， 下游焦企考虑自身利润，对高价资源接货意愿有所回落，竞拍成交流拍率有所增加，短期内焦煤继续大 幅上涨动力不足偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-80.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：近期钢材价格稳中有涨，焦炭第四轮涨价全面落地，在终端低库存运行状态下，下游仍有继 续补 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong foreign spot prices, rising domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is bearish, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is bullish on the disk, the main position is bearish, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Summary by Directory Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with supply starting to increase, strong foreign spot prices, increasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is - 110 with a spot price of 14900, showing a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with the SHFE inventory decreasing week - on - week and year - on - year, while the Qingdao area inventory increasing week - on - week and year - on - year. The market is bullish on the disk as the price is running above the 20 - day line. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal. Short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is starting to increase [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 29. The US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved, and the spot price is relatively resistant to decline [6][8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE inventory has been continuously decreasing recently, while the Qingdao area inventory has increased slightly [14][17]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is at a high level, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and the tire production reaching a new high in the same period, but the tire industry's exports have declined [23][26][29]. - **Import**: Import volume has seasonally declined [20]. Basis - The basis weakened on July 29, with a spot price of 14900 and a basis of - 110, showing a bearish signal [4][35]. Multi - empty Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Increasing supply and the non - seasonal destocking in Qingdao area [6].