Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2340 and 2400. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. In the short term, it will be affected by soybean meal and maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2340 - 2400. The market situation is influenced by factors such as the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports, spot demand off - season, and low inventory [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has a preliminary ruling, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has an offsetting effect on rapeseed production, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 15 - 23, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3102 - 3138 yuan, with daily trading volumes between 3.55 - 17.5 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 - 2520 yuan, with most daily trading volumes at 0 million tons. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) was between 2490 - 2520 yuan from December 15 - 23. The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, unchanged from last week and 99.29% less than the same period last year. The rapeseed meal futures fluctuated and declined, and the spot price followed the fluctuations, with the spot premium remaining relatively high. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [13][15][18]. 5. Position Data - The main force has changed from long to short, and funds have flowed in [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with the production in the last week of 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase, and is higher than the historical average. The predicted production in December 2025 is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The predicted import volume is 27,000 tons, a 22.42% month - on - month increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 116,240 - 120,640. [9] - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased slightly week - on - week, and it is predicted that both production and import volume will increase next month. The inventory of downstream sample enterprises decreased. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica increased, resulting in losses in production. The cash production cost of the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [10] - **Market Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline. [11][12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and lithium salts generally increased, while the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium decreased. The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries were relatively stable. [16] - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc. showed different trends. The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) and the production and import volume of lithium hydroxide all had corresponding changes. [20] - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production, export, and inventory of downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary materials, as well as the monthly power battery loading volume and new energy vehicle production and sales volume, all showed different trends. [20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule is decreasing but remains at a high level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8685 - 8875 [3][4][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule is continuously decreasing, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 58180 - 60270 [7][8][9][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply side: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [3][5]. - Demand side: Last week, the demand was 81,000 tons, a 8% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased [3][5]. - Cost side: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has risen during the dry season [3][5]. - Other factors: On December 23, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 420 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The social inventory was 553,000 tons, a 1.42% decrease from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 192,500 tons, a 2.94% increase; the main port inventory was 138,000 tons, a 1.47% increase. The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions decreased [3][5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply side: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,000 tons, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [7][8]. - Demand side: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 10.67GW, a 12.18% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 215,000 tons, a 7.72% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule in December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the external sales factory inventory of cells was 10.06GW, a 6.56% increase. Currently, cell production is in a loss state, and the production schedule in December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the module production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected module production in December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, module production is in a profitable state [7][9]. - Cost side: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,400 yuan/ton [7][9][10]. - Other factors: On December 23, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 6,875 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The weekly inventory was 293,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week, at a high level in the same period of history. The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed above the MA20. The main positions are net short, and the short positions increased [7][9][13]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures closing price: All contracts showed an upward trend, with the 12 - contract having the largest increase of 2.40% [19]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts decreased, with some showing a significant decline [19]. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number increased by 1.73%, the weekly DMC production decreased by 6.52%, and the daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures closing price: Most contracts showed an upward trend, with the 07 - contract having the largest increase of 0.84% [21]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts showed a certain change, with some increasing and some decreasing [21]. - Other indicators: The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06%. The monthly module production decreased by 2.49%, and the domestic monthly module inventory decreased by 51.73% [21]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends 3.3.1 Industrial Silicon - Price: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [19]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 1.43%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 2.94%, and the main port inventory increased by 1.47% [19]. 3.3.2 Polysilicon - Price: The prices of various types of polysilicon and related products remained mostly unchanged [21]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory remained unchanged at 293,000 tons [21]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance 3.4.1 Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: The production, import, export, and consumption data showed a certain balance situation, with the balance value fluctuating [43]. - Monthly supply - demand balance: From November 2024 to November 2025, the industrial silicon production, consumption, and export data showed different trends, and the supply - demand balance also changed accordingly [46]. 3.4.2 Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: From October 2024 to October 2025, the supply, import, export, and consumption of polysilicon showed different trends, and the balance value also fluctuated [69]. 3.5 Downstream Industry Trends 3.5.1 Organic Silicon - DMC production and price: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged, the weekly production decreased by 6.52%, and the price remained unchanged [19][49]. - Downstream product prices: The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained unchanged [19][51]. - Import - export and inventory: The monthly export and import volumes of DMC showed different trends, and the inventory decreased [54][56]. 3.5.2 Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged, and the import cost and profit showed certain changes [19][58]. - Inventory and production: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 8.66%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 5.74%. The social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 1.09% [19][61]. - Demand: The monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheels are provided [62]. 3.5.3 Polysilicon Downstream - Silicon wafer: The price of silicon wafers remained unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06%, and the monthly demand showed a certain trend [21][72]. - Cell: The price of cells remained unchanged, the production and actual output showed a certain trend, the external sales factory inventory increased, the export volume showed an upward trend, and the opening rate showed a certain trend [21][75]. - Photovoltaic module: The price of modules showed a certain change, the domestic and European inventories decreased, the monthly production decreased by 2.49%, and the export volume increased by 5.54% [21][78]. - Photovoltaic accessories: The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic coating, photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and welding tape showed different trends [81]. - Component cost - profit: The cost and profit of silicon wafers, cells, and components in 210mm double - sided double - glass components showed different trends [84]. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: The new - installed capacity, power generation structure, and new - connected capacity of photovoltaic power plants showed different trends [87].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is El Niño weather. The current situation has both positive and negative factors, with positive factors including the tight supply of US soybeans with a low inventory-to-sales ratio, and negative factors such as the relatively high historical price of oils and fats, continuous accumulation of domestic oil inventories, weak macro - economy, and high expected production of related oils [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the subsequent supply pressure will decrease as it enters the减产 season [2] - **Basis**: The basis is 412, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is a negative factor [2] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is a positive factor [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7600 - 8000 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [3] - **Basis**: The basis is 6, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is a positive factor [3] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a positive factor [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase as it enters the增产 season [4] - **Basis**: The basis is 596, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a positive factor [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is a negative factor [4] - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is a negative factor [4] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is a negative factor [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at relatively high historical levels, domestic oil inventories are continuously accumulating, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The 25/26 sugar season is expected to see a global sugar supply surplus, with different institutions' forecasts ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. After continuous decline, the sugar main contract 05 has short - term support near the 5000 mark, and the market shows a volatile rebound due to some short - position profit - taking [4][5][9] - There are both positive and negative factors in the sugar market. Positive factors include an increase in syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Negative factors are the increase in global sugar production, a larger supply - demand surplus in the new season, lower international sugar prices leading to increased import pressure [4][7][9] Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus vary. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons. Overall, it is bearish [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5370, with a basis of 215 for the 05 contract, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net position changing from long to short, and the main trend is unclear, also bearish [6] 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. StoneX predicts a surplus of 3.7 million tons, ISO predicts 1.63 million tons, Datagro predicts 1 million tons, and Czarnikow predicts 7.4 million tons [4][9][33] - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales**: As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37% [4] - **Import Data**: In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons; the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4][9] - **Price Data**: The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [35] 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-24燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 利多： 1. 俄罗斯燃油出口限制 2. 美俄会谈取消，对俄石油相关企业发起制裁 利空： 行情驱动：供应端受地缘风险影响与需求中性共振 风险点：OPEC+内部团结破坏；战争风险升级 燃料油： 1、基本面：据多位贸易人士称，亚洲高硫燃料油整体市场将继续受到来自下游船用燃料油相对稳定的加油需求 的支撑，但炼油厂对原料的需求疲软以及近期供应充足将对基本面构成压力；贸易人士表示，全球最大的船用燃 料加注中心新加坡预计在未来几周迎来稳定的低硫燃料油调油组分到货，将持续增加当地现有的库存；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油344.27 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that domestic methanol will continue its regional trend this week. Inland methanol plants may lower prices due to inventory pressure and transportation issues. The port market will see post - rise shock consolidation, and overall, methanol prices are expected to show a weak shock trend, with MA2605 operating between 2130 - 2190 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamental drivers of methanol vary, with regional trends expected this week. Inland, plants focus on low - inventory operations, and some may cut prices. In sales areas, prices will have a narrow - range shock. Ports will see post - rise shock consolidation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile. The MA2605 contract is expected to operate between 2130 - 2190 yuan/ton. The basis is 9 yuan/ton with the spot at a premium. As of December 11, 2025, the port inventory decreased, the 20 - day line is downward with the price below it, and the main position is net short with short - position reduction [5]. 2. Multi - and Short - Term Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Some plants are shut down, Iranian methanol production is down, port inventory is low, new acetic acid plants are put into production, and northwest CTO plants are purchasing methanol [6]. - **Likely to Fall**: Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, there will be concentrated ship arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, formaldehyde is in the off - season with MTBE production down, coal - to - methanol has profit and is actively selling, and some plants in production areas have inventory accumulation [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of some spot and futures products have changed. For example, the price of Hebei methanol decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price increased by 1 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: The basis is - 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [8]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 102.01 million tons, a significant reduction of 9.84 million tons from the previous period [5]. - **Opening Rate**: The national weighted - average opening rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous period [8]. 4. Maintenance Status - **Domestic Plants**: Many plants in different regions such as Northwest, East, Southwest, and Northeast are under maintenance, with different start and end times and maintenance losses [59]. - **Overseas Plants**: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or have unstable operations, and plants in other countries also have different operating statuses [60]. - **Olefin Plants**: Olefin plants in different regions have different operating conditions, including normal operation, maintenance, and planned production increases [61].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油2602： 1.基本面：美国对联合国表示，将实施与执行"最大限度的"制裁，以剥夺委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的资源， 与此同时，俄罗斯警告其他拉美国家可能成为下一个被制裁的对象；美国商务部经济分析局公布的首 次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）环比按年率计算增长4.3%，高于第二季度 3.8%的增速和市场预期；俄美两国外交官就消除两国关系中的 "障碍因素 "举行了会谈，但主要问题仍 未得到解决；中性 2.基差：12月22日，阿曼原油现货价为61.75美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为60.33美元/桶，基差 25.36元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月19日当周API原油库存增加239.1万桶，前值减少932.2万桶；美国至12月12日当 周EIA库存减少127.4万桶，预期减少106.6万桶；库欣地区库存至12月12日当周减少74.2万桶，前值增加 30.8万桶；截止至12月22日，上海原油期货库存为346.4万桶，不变；偏空 4.盘面：20日均线偏平，价格在均线附近；中性 5.主力持仓：截至12月9日，WTI原油主力持仓多单，多 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of coking coal and coke. For coking coal, it is expected that the supply will be difficult to recover before the Spring Festival, and the demand is hard to increase due to limited profits of coking and steel enterprises, so the short - term price may be weak. For coke, after the third round of price cuts, the inventory has slightly accumulated, and there is still a risk of further price cuts in the later period, with the short - term price also expected to be weak [2][7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Near the end of the year, safety accidents occur frequently, and coal mine production enthusiasm is low. Downstream coking enterprises mainly purchase raw coal as needed, coal mine shipments are not smooth, and the overall transaction is average [2] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1140, and the basis is 14.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2] - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 801 tons, port inventory is 295 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 tons, and the total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons compared to last week [2] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [3] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing [3] - **Expectation**: After three rounds of coke price cuts, the profit recovery of coking and steel enterprises is slow. The current purchase of high - priced coal is still cautious, and the demand for coking coal is difficult to increase, with the short - term price expected to be weak [2] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and difficult - to - increase supply [5] - **Negative Factors**: Slowed procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5] Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the third round of price cuts, the profit margin of some coking enterprises has narrowed. The overall production capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises is at a high level, and production is stable. Affected by market sentiment, the shipment rhythm has slowed down, and the inventory has slightly accumulated [7] - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1630, and the basis is - 111, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7] - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 626 tons, port inventory is 187 tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 tons, and the total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton compared to last week [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7] - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is long, and long positions are decreasing [7] - **Expectation**: Some steel mills are controlling arrivals. Considering the profit gap between coking and steel enterprises, the speculative demand of traders has not started yet. There is still a pessimistic attitude in the market, and there is still a risk of further price cuts for metallurgical coke [7] - **Positive Factors**: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9] - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit space of steel mills and partially overdrawn replenishment demand [9] Price Index and Inventory - **Port Metallurgical Coke Price Index**: On December 23 (17:30), the prices of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports are provided, with some prices showing changes [10] - **Imported Coking Coal Spot Price**: On December 23 (17:30), the prices of different types and brands of imported coking coal in various ports are given, and some prices have increased [11] - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton compared to last week [19] - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons compared to last week [23] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [28] Other Data - **Coking Plant Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises in the country is 74.48% [41] - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in the country is 25 yuan [45]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1115元/吨，SA2605收盘价为1175元/吨，基差为-60元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存149.93万吨，较前一周增加0.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来 ...