Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated December 23, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is mainly on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The bullish factor is inventory de - stocking, and the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 8, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.5%, which is neutral [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Futures Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Spot and Futures Quotes - The price of the spot delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the price of the 05 contract is 1698 (+1), the basis is - 8 (- 1), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), etc. [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. have also shown certain changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, and the net import volume was 360 [9]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today due to weak fundamentals, oversupply, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand [4][6] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,250 (-130), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is 10, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to strong propane prices. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, with a decline in order volume, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,150 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2320 - 2380. The market has returned to a state of oscillation while awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2320 - 2380 range. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is bullish; the price on the disk is bearish; the main position is bullish; and the short - term outlook is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the lack of pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 12 to 22, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3100 - 3138 yuan/ton. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 599 - 631 yuan/ton [13]. - From December 12 to 22, the price of rapeseed meal futures' near - month 2601 contract was around 2389 - 2419 yuan/ton, the main 2605 contract was around 2323 - 2359 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was around 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton [15]. - From December 11 to 22, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have oscillated and declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract has narrowed slightly [18][20]. - Rapeseed imports have increased slightly in December, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory has remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. Oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and South American weather, it may show short - term weak oscillations. Factors like demand improvement, spot price premium, inventory changes, and market expectations contribute to this view [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The price is affected by the US - China trade situation, South American weather, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. Import volume and domestic production also impact the market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: In a neutral position. Market factors include US - China trade, South American weather, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Also in a neutral state. Influenced by similar factors as soybean meal, along with the cost - performance of domestic soybeans [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while oil mill soybean inventory remained high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, but the rising demand for soybean meal in December supported price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Long Factors**: Initial agreement in US - China trade negotiation, no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and variable weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in December, and expected high - yield South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Long Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - **Short Factors**: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows trends in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio varying over the years [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data reflects changes in harvest area, import volume, production, consumption, and inventory, along with the inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - **Soybean Meal Futures and Spot**: Futures showed weak oscillations, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight reduction in the spot premium [24]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread fluctuated slightly, and the spread in the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [29]. - **Oil Mill Operations**: Oil mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year. Downstream purchases were low, while提货 volume was high [26][27]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory showed some fluctuations, along with information on Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [44]. - **US Soybean Exports**: Weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival volume increased slightly in December and showed an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - **Oil Mill Inventory and Contracts**: Oil mill soybean inventory remained high, and soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. Unfulfilled contracts rose to a high level, indicating increased stocking demand [48][50]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: Followed the oscillation of US soybeans and declined, with slight fluctuations in the market profit [53]. - **Pig Farming**: Pig inventory increased, sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices fluctuated slightly, and piglet prices were weak. The proportion of large pigs increased, and the cost of secondary fattening fluctuated slightly. Pig - farming profits also fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's output at 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 tons, and the predicted output for the next month is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. The import volume in November was 25,500 tons, and the predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week [8][9]. - The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, but is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 110,360 - 114,600 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 tons, and the predicted next - month output is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. The import volume in November was 25,500 tons, and the predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 102,271 tons last week, a 1.33% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,091 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, but is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 110,360 - 114,600 [9]. - **Positive factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers' production cut plan and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile [11]. - **Negative factors**: Continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [12]. - **Main logic**: Emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 107,766 yuan/ton, a 3.68% daily increase, with a production loss of 10,149 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica externally is 103,138 yuan/ton, a 3.11% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,988 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [10]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 99,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 15,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,090 tons, a 5.58% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 50,850 tons, a 2.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 110,425 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Market trend**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [10]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Futures closing price**: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.52% to 3.07% [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts decreased, with the decrease ranging from 3.91% to 14.97% [15]. - **Registered warrants**: The number of registered warrants was 16,411, a 5.80% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Upstream prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and related products showed different trends. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 4.55%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.38% [15]. 3.4 Supply - Related - **Lithium ore**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium ore fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium ore in different months changed [26]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and production capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends over time [32]. - **Lithium hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [41][44]. 3.5 Demand - Related - **Lithium battery**: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium batteries fluctuated, and the monthly production and shipment volume of power cells changed [58]. - **Ternary precursor**: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. For example, the price of ternary precursors fluctuated, and the monthly supply - demand balance changed [63][66]. - **Ternary material**: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary materials showed different trends over time. For example, the price of ternary materials fluctuated, and the monthly production and supply - demand balance changed [69][70]. - **Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate**: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate fluctuated, and the monthly production and supply - demand balance changed [73][76]. - **New energy vehicle**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time. For example, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased [81][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic large pigs for slaughter is gradually increasing. With the recent rise in swine fever in southern China, the short - term increase in slaughter is suppressing pig prices. It is expected that the supply of both pigs and pork will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment expectation has improved slightly. The demand for cured meat in the north is gradually being released, which supports the price bottom, but overall consumption remains unoptimistic. Overall, the market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand. Pig prices may decline in the short - term and fluctuate within a range in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market. The outlook is neutral [8]. - The spot national average price is 11,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2603 contract is - 5 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The outlook is neutral [8]. - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. This is a bearish signal [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward. This is a bullish signal [8]. - The net position of the main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing. This is a bearish signal [8]. - Recently, both the supply and demand of pigs have started to increase. It is expected that pig prices will enter a weak and volatile pattern this week. The LH2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of around 11,100 - 11,500 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No specific content provided for daily hints. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the approaching peak demand season and the spread of swine fever, the slaughter of pigs has increased, leading to more supply. The spot price is expected to remain volatile in the short and medium - term [10]. - With the arrival of the cured - meat demand at the end of the year, the pig spot market is gradually entering a stage of strong supply and demand. The short - term downward space for prices may be limited, and prices may return to a volatile trend [10]. - The loss of domestic pig - breeding profits has recently shifted to small fluctuations. Short - term profits still remain in the red, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has increased in the short - term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - The pig spot price has stopped falling and stabilized, returning to a volatile pattern. The futures market is still weak in the short - term and may generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the peak season at the end of the year, and the downward space for domestic pig spot prices may be limited [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [12]. - **Main Logic**: The market is focused on the pig slaughter situation and fresh - meat demand [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603 contracts), pig futures warehouse receipts, and external ternary pig spot prices in different regions from December 15 - 22 [13]. - It also presents various charts related to the pig market, including the basis and spread trends of pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of pigs in the spot market, supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory data from different sources, pork imports, etc.), slaughter - end prices, slaughter profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratios, and the situation of pig storage and release [14 - 72]. 3.5 Position Data No specific position - related data analysis is provided other than the information about the net short position and the decrease in short positions of the main contract in the core viewpoints [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and basis trends**: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - **Spread analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread**: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipments**: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production**: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Social and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and export analysis**: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为080元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为634.77元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利用率为 77.38%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量33.549万吨，环比减少2.40%,乙烯法企业产量14.096万 吨，环比减少2.99%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为45.39%，环比减少3.5个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率为 31.43%，环比减少3.7个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比持平，高于历史平均水 平；下游薄膜开工率为 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market has rebounded significantly due to potential changes in Indonesian quotas. Some production capacities have reduced recently, easing supply pressure. The overall situation remains bearish in the long - term. The 2602 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium and long term [2] - **不锈钢**: The spot price remains flat. Cost lines are stable, and inventory is decreasing. The 2602 contract is expected to move in a moderately strong oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **期货价格**: On December 22, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,260, up 4,080 from December 19. The London Nickel price was 15,260, up 360. The Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850, up 130 [9] - **现货价格**: On December 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,800, up 1,700 from December 19. Cold - rolled coil prices in major markets remained unchanged [9] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **上期所镍库存**: As of December 19, the total inventory was 45,280 tons, with futures inventory at 37,602 tons, increasing by 603 tons and 2,352 tons respectively [11] - **期货库存**: On December 22, LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, down 162 tons from December 19. Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 tons, up 1,320 tons [12] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **社会库存**: On December 19, the Wuxi inventory was 581,200 tons, Foshan inventory was 307,700 tons, and the national inventory was 1,042,100 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, down 18,100 tons [16] - **期货 inventory**: On December 22, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 48,312 tons, down 183 tons from December 19 [17] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **镍矿价格**: On December 22, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was $55 per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was $29 per wet ton, unchanged from December 19 [21] - **海运费**: The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was $8.5 per ton, and to Tianjin Port was $9.5 per ton, remaining stable [21] - **镍铁价格**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 886.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan, and low - nickel (less than 2) was 3,250 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - **生产成本**: The traditional production cost was 12,614 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,008 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,399 yuan [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The calculated import price was 121,956 yuan per ton [26]