沪铜周报（9.22~9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜大幅上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨3.2%，收报于82470元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美国 关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力，刺激铜价大涨。国内方面，消费将进 入旺季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方 面，铜库存LME库存144400吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周减7035吨至98779吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025过剩 供需平衡 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Cost support for silicon manganese remains strong recently. Manganese ore prices are generally stable with minor fluctuations due to inventory pressure, and transportation costs in northern main production areas have increased slightly, raising the overall production cost of alloys [2]. - The silicon manganese futures market has been fluctuating weakly this week, and market sentiment is cautious. Production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia factories has not changed much. With few market incentives, the market is in a wait - and - see mode with low willingness to quote prices, and the difference in spot trading prices between the north and the south is not significant [2]. - This week, steel mills in the north and south are increasingly inclined to lower prices in their tenders for silicon manganese, with prices concentrated at 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton (including tax and delivered to the factory), indicating weak demand for alloys [2]. - Currently, the fundamental driving force of the silicon manganese market is limited. More attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. It is expected that the price of silicon manganese alloy will fluctuate within a narrow range before the National Day, and the market will continue to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: There is a graph showing the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises, but no specific analysis is provided [6][7]. - **Annual Output**: The annual output of silicon manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole of China is presented in a graph, without specific analysis [8][9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率**: Graphs show the weekly and monthly output of Chinese silicon manganese and the weekly operating rate of Chinese silicon manganese enterprises, without specific analysis [10][11]. - **Regional Output**: Graphs display the monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi, without specific analysis [12][13]. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: Graphs show the monthly purchase prices of silicon manganese by various steel enterprises such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, etc., without specific analysis [15][16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit**: Graphs show the weekly daily average hot metal output and profitability of 247 Chinese steel enterprises, without specific analysis [17][18]. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - Graphs show the monthly import and export volumes of Chinese silicon manganese ferroalloy, without specific analysis [19][20]. Manganese Silicon Inventory - Graphs show the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region, without specific analysis [21][22]. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Graphs show the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China, without specific analysis [23][24]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Graphs show the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China, without specific analysis [25][26]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Graphs show the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian high - grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, without specific analysis [27][28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Graphs show the daily prices of various manganese ores in Tianjin Port, without specific analysis [29]. - **Regional Cost**: Graphs show the daily production costs of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, without specific analysis [30][31]. Manganese Silicon Profit - **Regional Profit**: Graphs show the daily profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi, without specific analysis [32][33].

供给方面，玻璃现货价格企稳回升，行业冷修高位，上周全国浮法玻璃生产线在产 225条，开工率76.01%，日熔量16.07万吨，环比增加500吨，供给低位企稳。需求方面， 虽已经进入所谓的"传统旺季" ，但加工厂订单改善有限，订单存在分歧，近日价格上 调，部分企业适量备货，同时临近国庆长假，后期拿货或以刚需为主；截止9月25日， 全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存处于同期历史偏高 位置。综合来看，玻璃基本面改善乏力，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃周报 2025.9.22-9.26 每周观点 上周玻璃期货先扬后抑，主力合约FG2601收盘较前一周上涨2.96%报1252元/吨。现 货方面，河北沙河白 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.9.22-9.26 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货先扬后抑，主力合约SA2601收盘较前一周下跌1.90%报1293元/吨。现货方 面，河北沙河重碱低端价1200元/吨，较前一周下跌2.04%。 供给方面，近期纯碱检修企业少，个别企业短停，对于整体影响较小，预计下周供应依 旧处于较高水平，下周产量预计77万吨，开工率89%；需求端，下游浮法和光伏玻璃需求一 般，按需为主，节前补库为主，低价成交居多，货源相对宽松，下游存货意向不足，按需补 充；周内，浮法日熔量16.07万吨，环比增加500吨，光伏8.88万吨，环比稳定。截止9月25 日，全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合 来看，纯碱基 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For coking coal, the short - term price may be mainly stable, with a possible weak and stable operation in the short term. The supply increase is limited due to strict safety inspections, demand is stable but downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited, and inventory has decreased slightly [3]. - For coke, the short - term price may remain stable. The inventory level of coke at coking enterprises is not high, some enterprises have increased production - limiting willingness, and the pre - holiday procurement enthusiasm of steel mills has increased, but the terminal demand is weak [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Strict safety inspections limit supply growth, downstream demand is stable, coal mine shipments are smooth, and short - term coal prices may be stable; neutral [3]. - Basis: Spot price is 1285, basis is 88.5, spot premium over futures; bullish [3]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons from last week; bullish [3]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main net position of coking coal is short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: Short - term raw material demand remains high, but the steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price may run weakly and stably [3]. Coke - Fundamental: Coke supply is stable, coking enterprises maintain normal production, but profits are under pressure due to rising raw material coal prices; neutral [7]. - Basis: Spot price is 1610, basis is - 82.5, spot discount to futures; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main net position of coke is short, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [7]. - Expectation: The inventory level of coke at coking enterprises is not high, some enterprises have increased production - limiting willingness, and the pre - holiday procurement enthusiasm of steel mills has increased. It is expected that the short - term coke price may remain stable [6]. Price - The report provides the spot price quotes of imported Russian and Australian coking coal on September 25, 2025, including the prices and price changes of various types of coking coal at different ports [10]. Inventory Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [31]. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [44]. - The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamental driving force of the silicon-manganese market is limited, and more attention should be paid to emotional changes. It is expected that the price of silicon-manganese alloy will fluctuate within a narrow range before the National Day [3]. - The basis of the 01 contract is -48 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish [3]. - The inventory of 63 independent silicon-manganese enterprises in the country is 221,800 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.49 days, which is neutral [3]. - The MA20 is flat, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below the MA20, which is neutral [3]. - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [3]. - It is expected that the price of silicon-manganese will fluctuate this week, and SM2601 will fluctuate between 5,800 and 6,020 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Manganese-Silicon Supply Capacity - There is a chart showing the monthly production capacity of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [7][8]. Annual Production - There is a chart showing the annual production of silicon-manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and the whole country [9][10]. Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate - There is a chart showing the weekly and monthly production of silicon-manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon-manganese enterprises in China [12][11]. Regional Production - There are charts showing the monthly production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13][14]. Manganese-Silicon Demand Steel Tendering Purchase Price - There are charts showing the monthly purchase prices of silicon-manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. [16][17]. Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability - There is a chart showing the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China [18][19]. Manganese-Silicon Import and Export - There is a chart showing the monthly import and export quantities of ferromanganese-silicon in China [20][21]. Manganese-Silicon Inventory - There are charts showing the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon-manganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of silicon-manganese inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region [22][23]. Manganese-Silicon Cost Manganese Ore Import Volume - There is a chart showing the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China [24][25]. Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days - There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China [26][27]. High-Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory - There is a chart showing the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port [28][29]. Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - There is a chart showing the daily prices of South African semi-carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore in Tianjin Port [30]. Regional Cost - There is a chart showing the daily cost of silicon-manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [31][32]. Manganese-Silicon Profit - There is a chart showing the daily profit of silicon-manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [33][34].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（9.22~9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期货主力 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约下跌0.24%，周五收盘报20745元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存517700吨，较前周出现小幅增加， SHFE周库存减3108吨至124626吨。 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply-side arrivals have decreased this month, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production while the trade war is easing; the overall situation is neutral [2]. - Regarding the basis, the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 828, with a basis of 38; the spot price of Brazilian mixed ore at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 844, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; this is bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14,450.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; this is neutral [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average while the 20 - day moving average is upward; this is neutral [2]. - The net position of the main iron ore contract is short, and the short positions are decreasing; this is bearish [2]. - The expectation is that domestic demand is decreasing, and the plan to reduce production capacity is impacting the market, suggesting a high - level consolidation mindset [2]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Daily Views - Fundamentals: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrivals have decreased this month, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories are decreasing, there will be crude steel reduction policies, and the trade war is easing; neutral [2]. - Basis: Spot is at a premium to futures; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Port inventories are 14,450.68 tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year; neutral [2]. - Disk: Price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward; neutral [2]. - Main Position: Net short position, and short positions are decreasing; bearish [2]. - Expectation: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the production capacity reduction plan is impacting the market, with a high - level consolidation mindset [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - Import losses exist [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - Future shipments will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The supply of beans and oils has increased due to Argentina's tariff policy, leading to an overall correction in oilseeds. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level [2][3][4]. - The main logic revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main bullish factor is that the US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. The main bearish factors are that the prices of oils and fats are historically high, domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing, the macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month - on - month to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month - on - month, and palm oil supply will increase in the subsequent production season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 98, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [2]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,150, with a basis of - 86, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1% [3]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts, and supply is expected to increase in the subsequent production season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,300, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [4]. - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400 [4]. 4. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes soybean oil inventory [6], soybean meal inventory [8], oil mill soybean crushing [10], palm oil inventory [17], rapeseed oil inventory [19], rapeseed inventory [21], and domestic total inventory of oils and fats [23]. - **Demand**: Includes the apparent consumption of soybean oil [12] and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [14].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-29 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1252元/吨，基差为-104元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5935.50万重量箱，较前一周减少2.55%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空： ...