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大越期货燃料油早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 03:01
重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油: 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-17燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1、基本面:贸易商称,亚洲低硫燃料油市场预计在整个1月乃至可能延续到2月都将保持供应充足,因为来自苏 伊士以西市场的套利船货将增加当地现有的库存;多位新加坡的贸易商表示,尽管新加坡地区供应相对充足,但 由于稳定的船用燃料需求,高硫燃料油市场基本面在短期内可能继续获得支撑;中性 2、基差:新加坡高硫燃料油327.32美元/吨,基差为-9元/吨,新加坡低硫燃料油为406.96美元/吨,基差为27元/ 吨,现货平水期货;中性 3、库存:新加坡燃料油12月10日当周库存为2241.9万桶,增加118万桶;偏空 4、盘 ...
大越期货贵金属早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 03:01
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号: F3051846 投资咨询证号: Z0015764 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面:美国11月非农新增就业超预期,但失业率意外升至四年高位,金价冲高 回落;美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一,欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌;美债收益率集体 下跌,10年期美债收益率跌3.12个基点报4.143%;美元指数跌0.06%报98.22,离岸 人民币对美元小幅升值报7.0361;COMEX黄金期货跌0.07%报4332.2美元/盎司;中性 2、基差:黄金期货971.42,现货966.39,基差-5.03,现货贴水期货;偏空 3、库存:黄金期货仓单91302千克,增加3千克;偏空 4、盘面:20日均线向 ...
工业硅期货早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:20
2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 工业硅期货早报 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 需求端来看,上周硅片产量为12.15GW,环比增加1.67%,库存为23.3万吨,环比增加9.38%, 目前硅片生产为亏损状态,12月排产为45.7GW,较上月产量54.37GW,环比减少15.94%;11 月电池片产量为55.61GW,环比减少6.17%,上周电池片外销厂库存为9.44GW,环比增加 4.07%,目前生产为亏损状态,12月排产量为48.72GW,环比减少12.38%;11月组件产量为 46.9GW,环比减少2.49%,12月预计组件产量为39.99GW,环比减少14.73%,国内月度库存为 24.76GW,环比减少51.73%,欧洲月度库存为33.1GW,环比减少6.49%,目前组件生产 ...
大越期货沥青期货早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:20
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,根据隆众,2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨,环比降幅3.24%。本周国内石油沥青样 本产能利用率为29.9017%,环比减少0.18个百分点,全国样本企业出货25.342万吨,环比减少9.68%,样本企业 产量为49.9万吨,环比减少0.59%,样本企业装置检修量预估为94.4万吨,环比增加14.29%,本周炼厂有所减产, 降低供应压力。下周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看,重交沥青开工率为27.8%,环比减少0.00个百分点,低于历史平均水平;建筑沥青开工率为6.6%, 环比持平,低于历史平均水平;改性沥青开工率为8.9781 ...
大越期货PVC期货早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:16
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a mixed outlook on the PVC market. There are both positive and negative factors. The positives include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negatives are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slowly consumed inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [11]. Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [10] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall rebound in supply pressure, high inventory levels with slow consumption, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [11] 2. Fundamental and Position Data - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.43%, a 0.01 percentage point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide - method enterprise production was 343,760 tons, a 3.21% month - on - month decrease, while ethylene - method enterprise production was 145,310 tons, a 7.43% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production [7]. - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 48.89%, a 0.18 percentage point month - on - month decrease, but still above the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 35.13%, a 0.73 percentage point month - on - month decrease, above the historical average; the downstream pipe operating rate was 37.6%, a 0.200 percentage point month - on - month increase, below the historical average; the downstream film operating rate was 73.93%, unchanged month - on - month, above the historical average; the downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.36%, a 1.05 percentage point month - on - month increase, above the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive, but current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 1,102.13 yuan/ton, a month - on - month loss increase of 8.10%, below the historical average; the profit of the ethylene method was - 520.44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month loss increase of 10.10%, below the historical average; the double - ton price difference was 1,732.55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month profit increase of 5.00%, below the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [7]. - **Basis**: On December 16, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,440 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 229 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. This is a bearish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 344,305 tons, a 5.66% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide - method factory inventory was 260,505 tons, a 6.35% month - on - month increase, and ethylene - method factory inventory was 83,800 tons, a 3.58% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 517,400 tons, a 2.24% month - on - month decrease. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.45 days, a 1.30% month - on - month increase. This is a bearish signal [7]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. This is a bearish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. This is a bearish signal [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Neutral [7] 3. PVC Market Overview - Presents yesterday's market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory changes of various PVC - related indicators such as different types of PVC prices, inter - month spreads, factory inventories, and social inventories [14] 4. PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price of PVC, and the closing price of the main futures contract [17] - **Futures Price and Volume**: Shows the price and trading volume trends of the PVC futures main contract, including opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA60, MA120). Also shows the changes in the net positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [20] - **Spread Analysis**: Displays the historical spread trends of the main PVC futures contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 5. PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, and inventory trends of various raw materials in the calcium carbide method, including semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, etc. For example, it shows the price trends of semi - coke in Shenmu, the cost - profit of calcium carbide in Wuhai, the price and production of liquid chlorine, the price and monthly production of raw salt, the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, and inventory of caustic soda in Shandong [26][29][31][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rate, production, and maintenance volume trends of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production. Also shows the daily and weekly production, maintenance volume, and capacity utilization rate trends of PVC [38][40] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes various demand - related indicators of PVC, including the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin). It also shows the investment and construction data of the real estate industry and some macro - economic data such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year growth [42][46][52] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the inventory trends of PVC, including exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - method factory inventory, ethylene - method factory inventory, social inventory, and the in - stock days of production enterprises [56] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method, such as the FOB price spread between Tianjin and Taiwan and the import price spread of vinyl chloride between Jiangsu and the Far East CIF [59] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, and supply - demand differences [61]
大越期货豆粕早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The market is neutral, with the spot price at a premium to the futures, an increase in oil - mill bean meal inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving average, a reduction in short positions by the main players, and an inflow of funds. In the short term, it may be driven by US soybeans and show a weakening trend [9]. Soybeans - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate between 4100 and 4200. The market is neutral, with the spot price slightly at a premium to the futures, an increase in oil - mill soybean inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving average, a reduction in short positions by the main players, and an outflow of funds. The price is supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imports but is suppressed by high imports and expected domestic production increases [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - Bean meal M2605 is in a 2740 - 2800 range, and soybean A2601 is in a 4100 - 4200 range. Analyses from multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, etc., are provided for both [9][11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans. The arrival of imported soybeans in December decreased, while oil - mill soybean inventory remained high. The decline in domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the demand for bean meal rebounded in December. The bean meal market is in a range - bound state, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Bean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, no pressure on oil - mill bean meal inventory, and uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High arrival volume of imported soybeans in December and the expected high yield of South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - Bearish factors: High yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases by China, and expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - A large amount of data is provided, including the global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets, showing the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc., over the years [33][34]. - The trading data of bean meal and rapeseed meal from December 8th to 16th, including transaction prices, volumes, and price differences, are presented [17]. - The price data of soybean and bean - meal futures and spot from December 9th to 16th are given [19]. 5. Position Data - The warehouse - receipt statistics of soybeans and bean meal from December 5th to 16th are provided, showing the changes in warehouse - receipt quantities [21]. Other Information - The bean - meal futures price declined, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly [24]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year [26]. - The procurement of domestic downstream industries rebounded from a low level, and the pick - up volume remained high [28]. - The spot price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract widened slightly [30]. - The US soybean export inspection increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year [47]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year overall [49]. - The soybean inventory of oil mills remained high, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level [50]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased [52]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year [54]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated with the US soybeans, and the on - disk profit fluctuated slightly [56]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month [58]. - The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [60]. - The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [62]. - The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [64].
碳酸锂期货早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate is in a tight balance, and the sentiment in the market is fluctuating due to news. The 2605 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate between 96,940 - 100,540 [8]. - The positive factors include the production cut plans of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. The negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views [8] - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 21,998 tons, a 0.26% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 103,658 tons, a 0.02% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,524 tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 98,042 yuan/ton, a 0.21% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 4,215 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 95,062 yuan/ton, a 0.37% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of 3,579 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production motivation. - **Basis**: On December 16th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 95,850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 4,750 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price, which was bearish. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 19,161 tons, a 7.73% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,738 tons, a 2.19% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,570 tons, a 0.88% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 111,469 tons, a 1.87% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. - **Market**: MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20, which was bullish. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position increased, which was bearish. - **Expectation**: In November 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's output will be 98,210 physical tons, a 3.00% month - on - month increase. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import volume will be 27,000 physical tons, a 5.88% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase and is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis** - The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 2.04% to 1,248 US dollars/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.74% to 95,850 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.76% to 93,350 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 83.52%, an 8.18% increase from the previous value, a 10.86% increase. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [18]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 348,500 tons, a 5.14% increase from the previous month. The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate was 87,480 tons, a 5.32% decrease from the previous month. The monthly power battery loading volume was 84,100 GWh, a 10.66% increase from the previous month [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production** - The price and production of lithium ore, including lithium spodumene and lithium mica, showed different trends over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also changed, and the weekly inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore showed fluctuations in different years [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [28]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production** - The weekly operating rate and production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) showed different trends over time. The monthly output and capacity of lithium carbonate also changed [31]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [38]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production** - The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly output of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet** - From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in each month. There were periods of supply shortage and surplus [43]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Lithium Compounds** - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, recycled lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide, showed different trends over time [46][48][51]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide** - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, showed different trends over time [53]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales of Lithium Battery** - The price, production, sales, and export volume of lithium batteries, including power batteries and energy - storage batteries, showed different trends over time [57][59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Precursor** - The price, cost, production, and capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors also showed different situations in each month from 2024 to 2025 [62][65]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production of Ternary Material** - The price, cost, production, and export volume of ternary materials showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of ternary materials also changed [68][70]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production of Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium** - The price, cost, production, and export volume of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time. The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium also changed [72][75]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export of New Energy Vehicle** - The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [80][84].
大越期货螺卷早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:02
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 螺纹: 1、基本面:需求不见起色,库存低位回升,贸易商采购意愿仍不强,地产行业继续处下行周期;偏空 2、基差:螺纹现货价3270,基差196;偏多 3、库存:全国35个主要城市库存338.7万吨,环比减少,同比增加;中性 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方,20日线向下;偏空 5、主力持仓:螺纹主力持仓净空,空减;偏空 6、预期:房地产市场依旧偏弱,需求降温,国内有去产能的计划冲击市场,震荡偏空思路对待 利多: 产量维持低位,现货升水,国内去产能预期。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号: F03105325 投资咨询证号: Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报(2025-12-17) 利空: 下游地产行业下行周期延续,终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷: 1、基本面:供需都有所走弱,库存继续减少,出口受阻,国内政策或发力;中性 ...
大越期货焦煤焦炭早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:02
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报(2025-12-17) 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 4、盘面:20日线向下,价格在20日线下方;偏空 5、主力持仓:焦煤主力净空,多翻空;偏空 焦煤 利 多:1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空:1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 每日观点 焦煤: 3、库存:钢厂库存801万吨,港口库存295万吨,独立焦企库存861万吨,总样本库存1957万吨,较上 周减少21万吨;偏多 6、预期:由于下游焦化厂利润较低以及下游钢厂检修停产增多,铁水产量继续下滑,焦煤需求支撑正 在走弱,因此下游对高价煤种的接受度并不高,采购偏谨慎。叠加淡季钢材需求持续疲软,或对焦煤价 格仍形成下行压力,预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 1、基本面:煤矿多以保安全生产为主,供应基本维 ...
大越期货铁矿石早报-20251217
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 02:02
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 利多: 利空: 每日观点 铁矿石: 1、基本面:钢厂铁水产量开始减少,总体供需宽松,港口库存累库,终端需求偏弱;偏空 2、基差:日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价826,基差65;日照港巴混现货折合盘面价837,基差76,现货升水期 货;偏多 3、库存:港口库存16111.47万吨,环比增加,同比增加;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方,20日线走平;偏空 5、主力持仓:铁矿主力持仓净多,多增;偏多 6、预期:国内需求降低,港口累库,震荡偏空思路 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号: Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报(2025-12-17) 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨,高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口现货价格 铁矿 ...