Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market expected it to be bearish, with limited upside for basis and absolute prices to fluctuate with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and upstream - downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price was expected to be sorted at a low level before the holiday. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak. Attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, September cargo was traded at 01 - 73~75, with prices negotiated around 4570 - 4605. Mid - October cargo was traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to 01, and late - October cargo at a discount of 50 to 01. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 74 [5]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4590, 01 contract basis was - 56, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.75 days, a decrease of 0.05 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA futures rebounded with the cost side this week. Some PTA plants reduced or stopped production due to typhoons, and polyester sales improved. The spot basis strengthened slightly, but the market remained bearish, with limited upside for the basis [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. Night - session trading was weak, with spot trading at a premium of 57 - 62 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The intraday basis recovered slightly, with September futures trading at a premium of 65 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [7]. - **Basis**: Spot price was 4300, 01 contract basis was 77, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 40.43 tons, an increase of 2.26 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main positions**: Net short positions were increasing [7]. - **Expectation**: Polyester sales improved last week, and polyester factory inventories decreased. However, the intention to hold positions before the holiday was weak. The price was expected to be sorted at a low level. The supply - demand balance would turn to surplus in the fourth quarter, and the fundamental support was weak [7]. 3. Today's Focus Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, contrary to analysts' expectations of an increase of 235,000 barrels. The approaching "Golden September and Silver October" season raised expectations of demand. Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance and was expected to restart in November [9][10][11]. - **Negative factors**: The short - term commodity market was greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and resistance levels should be watched for a rebound in the market [12]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA**: The report provided PTA supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on capacity, production, imports, exports, and inventory [13]. - **MEG**: The report provided ethylene glycol supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to December 2025, including data on production, imports, and inventory [14]. 4. Fundamental Data Price - The report presented historical price data for bottle chips, production margins, and various spreads for PTA and MEG from 2020 to 2025 [17][20][27]. Inventory Analysis - It included historical inventory data for PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fibers from 2021 to 2025 [44][46]. Upstream and Downstream开工率 - It showed historical开工率 data for PTA, xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [54][58]. Profit - It presented historical profit data for PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, and other products from 2022 to 2025 [63][64].

1、基本面：上周镍价震荡偏弱运行，下游成交一般，未见明显节前补库需求提升。产业链上，镍矿价 格坚挺，受台风影响，矿山装船出船或有延迟。镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈 钢金九银十去库存放缓。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。 中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：围绕20均线上下波动，区间120000-123800震荡运行。节前控制仓位。 2、基差：现货122450，基差1070，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230124，-462，上交所仓单25153，+48，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1293元/吨，基差为-93元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.15万吨，较前一周减少5.93%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。SA2601：1250-1300区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 26, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market for LLDPE and PP is expected to be volatile. For LLDPE, the overall fundamentals are bearish, with a weak demand compared to previous years, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract. For PP, the fundamentals are also bearish, with a weak demand, a bearish basis, a neutral inventory, a bearish trend on the disk, and an increasing net short position of the main contract [4][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, but a decline from July. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating. The agricultural film market is gradually entering the peak season, and the packaging film market is mainly driven by rigid demand. The downstream operating rate has increased, but the overall demand is still weaker than in previous years. The current spot price of the LLDPE delivery product is 7130 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -39, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is entering the peak season but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PE market will be volatile today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. The downstream market is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic woven products is stable. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6750 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -148, with a premium/discount ratio of -2.1%, which is bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The disk of the PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, the recent price of crude oil has been fluctuating, the demand for downstream products is stable, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that the PP market will be volatile today [6]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130, up 10; the price of the 01 contract is 7169, up 27; the basis is -39, down 17; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 509,000 tons, down 42,000; and the PE social inventory is 535,000 tons, down 12,000 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6750, unchanged; the price of the 01 contract is 6898, up 21; the basis is -148, down 21; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons, down 30,000; and the PP social inventory is 286,000 tons, up 3,000 [9]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally increased, and the import dependence has decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期: 预计排产将会增加。总体库存处于高位；当前需求或持续低迷；持续关注宏观政策及出口动态， PVC2601:在4905-4965区间震荡。 3 每日观点 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.96%，环比减少0.04个百分点；电石法企业产量32.8605万吨，环比减少3.14%,乙烯法企业产 量13.231万吨，环比减少5.16%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.26%，环比增加.76个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is still high, while the demand - side recovery is weak. High - price goods have insufficient demand, and the overall demand is declining with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The profit of asphalt processing losses has decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support. The current demand is below the historical average, and the inventory is continuously decreasing. It is predicted that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7][9][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise shipments were 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise output was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The estimated device maintenance volume was 699,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.95%. Refineries reduced production this week to relieve supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7] - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average [7] - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the difference between asphalt and delayed coking profits decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [7] - **Basis**: On September 25th, the spot price in Shandong was 3,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 60 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [7] - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1.146 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.88%; the in - factory inventory was 653,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.53%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 240,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.00%. The social, in - factory, and port inventories are all continuously decreasing [7] - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish signal [7] - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production to relieve supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish, and the inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support will strengthen in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3419 - 3461 [7] 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report presents the price, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts, including price changes, inventory changes, production changes, and profit changes. For example, the price of the 01 contract increased by 1.76% compared to the previous value, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [14] 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17] 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the spread relationship between different contracts [19][20] - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt and crude oil [22][23] - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the refining profit relationship between asphalt and crude oil [25][26][27] - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [29][31] 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to understand the price changes of asphalt in different regions [32][33] 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report shows the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [34][35] - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the profit difference between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39] - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report shows the historical shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the supply situation of asphalt [41][42] - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt [43][44] - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt [46][47] - **Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [50][52] - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of local refineries [53][54] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2021 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production capacity utilization situation of asphalt [56][57] - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the impact of maintenance on asphalt production [58][59] - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The report shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the exchange [61][62][63] - **Social Inventory and In - Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of the asphalt market [65][66] - **In - Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of in - factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the inventory management situation of factories [68][69] - **Import and Export Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the import and export situation of asphalt [71][72] - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The report shows the historical production trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of petroleum coke [77][78] - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the overall demand situation of asphalt [80][81] - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment**: The report shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment from 2020 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in highway construction [83][84] - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the impact of policies on asphalt demand [85] - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, and domestic excavator sales from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the demand situation of asphalt in downstream machinery [87][88][90] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93] - **Asphalt Capacity Utilization Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the production situation of asphalt for different uses [95][96] - **Downstream Capacity Utilization Situation**: The report shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rate from 2019 to 2025 through a chart, which helps to analyze the capacity utilization situation of downstream industries [98][99][101] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand situation of asphalt [103][104]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 利多：厂家停减产计划，从智利进口碳酸锂量环比有所下行，锂辉石进口量有所下滑。 利空：矿石/盐湖端供给持续高位，下降幅度有限；动力电池端接货意愿不足。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20363吨，环比增长2.00%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为96217吨，环比增加0.81%,上周三元材料样本 企业库存为17545吨，环比增加0.09%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为75328元/吨，日环比增长0.04%,生产所得为-2650元 /吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为78729元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-8042元/吨， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年9月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 利多：成本上行支撑，厂家停减产计划。 利空：节后需求复苏迟缓；下游多晶硅供强需弱 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 2万吨 环比有所增加2 ， | | 22% 。 . | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8万吨 | | | 环比增长2 56% ， . . | | 需求有所抬升 | 多 . ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-26甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：多空并存下，预计本周国内甲醇市场或震荡整理为主。内地方面，随着部分下游用户节前备货进入尾声， 传统下游需求或弱化，以及假期临近运输受限贸易商持货意愿不强，另外港口高库存对其周边地区均有一定制约，后期 内地甲醇上涨或有一定压力。但同时产区甲醇工厂库存紧张，贸易商做空谨慎，以及运费上涨对销区价格有一定托底， 预计内地甲醇回调空间同样有限。港口方面，短期看，新兴下游烯烃装置重启和节前备货对市场尚有支撑；中期看，港 口累库预计持续至10月，但伊朗开工下降和国内旺季需求有潜在利多；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为227 ...

2025-09-26原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2511： 1.基本面：国际文传电讯社援引俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克报道，俄罗斯政府计划禁止不生产柴油的供应商 出口柴油，禁令将持续到今年年底，诺瓦克表示政府还考虑将目前的汽油出口禁令延长至今年年底； 乌方消息人士称，袭击行动导致位于俄罗斯新罗西斯克港口附近的石油装运设施以及终端设备瘫痪， 相关设施每日出口原油约200万桶；印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄罗斯 石油进口，美方需允许其从受制裁的伊朗和委内瑞拉购买原油；中性 2.基差：9月25日，阿曼原油现货价为70.83元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69 ...