Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: December 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand, and it is expected that the trend of the UR contract today will be volatile [4] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined. On the demand side, both agricultural and industrial demand are mainly based on needs. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has increased significantly year - on - year, and the operating rate of melamine is stable. The price difference between domestic and foreign exports is large, but the short - term export demand has declined, and the overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1670 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 3, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] Inventory Analysis - UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons (- 38,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Disk Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The futures price of the urea main contract is weakly declining. Industrial demand is mainly based on needs, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the overall domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factor: Inventory de - stocking [5] - Bearish factors: Domestic supply exceeds demand; Daily production reaches a new high [5] - Main logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1670, unchanged; the price of Shandong spot is 1700, unchanged; the price of Henan spot is 1670, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2729 [6] Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1673, down 8; the basis is - 3, up 8; the price of UR01 is 1630, up 1; the price of UR05 is 1673, down 8; the price of UR09 is 1681, down 6 [6] Inventory Data - The number of warehouse receipts is 11,214, down 31; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.357 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.234 million tons; UR port inventory is 123,000 tons [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with a capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption also show an overall upward trend, with certain fluctuations in the import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: December 17, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] 2. LLDPE Analysis 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension of the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, and coal - based profits stabilized. Agricultural film demand was stable, while packaging film demand weakened after the peak season. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6520 (-60), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [4]. 2.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -23, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, considered neutral [4]. 2.3 Inventory Analysis - PE comprehensive inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), which is bearish [4]. 2.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [4]. 2.5 Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4]. 2.6 Outlook - The LLDPE main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 2.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [5] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] 3. PP Analysis 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, in November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month. OPEC+ maintained the production plan, with a 137,000 barrels per day increase in December and a suspension from January to March 2026. Coal prices declined, coal - based profits stabilized, and PDH profits continued to decline with the strong propane price. Plastic weaving demand entered the off - season, while pipe demand was okay. The current PP delivery spot price is 6250 (-0), with an overall bearish fundamental outlook [6]. 3.2 Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -6, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.1%, considered neutral [6]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - PP comprehensive inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), which is bearish [6]. 3.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish market [6]. 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing but still bearish [6]. 3.6 Outlook - The PP main contract is weak on the market, with oversupply in the fundamentals. The rising propane price affects the market, industrial inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is weakening. It is expected to fluctuate today [6]. 3.7 Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [7] - Bearish factors: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] 4. Market Data 4.1 LLDPE Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6520, change -60 | | LL Import US Dollar | Price 765, change 0 | | LL Import Conversion | Price 6633, change - 5 | | LL Import Spread | -113, change -55 | | 05 Contract | Price 6543, change -14 | | Basis | -23, change -46 | | L01 | Price 6516, change - 6 | | L05 | Price 6543, change -14 | | L09 | Price 6568, change -15 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 11332, change 0 | | PE Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PE Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 12 | [8] 4.2 PP Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Delivery | Price 6250, change 0 | | PP Import US Dollar | Price 750, change 0 | | PP Import Conversion | Price 6506, change - 5 | | PP Import Spread | -256, change 5 | | 05 Contract | Price 6256, change 2 | | Basis | - 6, change - 2 | | PP01 | Price 6192, change 14 | | PP05 | Price 6256, change 2 | | PP09 | Price 6291, change 14 | | Warehouse Receipts | Quantity 15113, change -634 | | PP Comprehensive Factory Warehouse | Quantity not clear, change 0 | | PP Social Inventory | Quantity not clear, change 0 | [8] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 5.1 Polyethylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. 5.2 Polypropylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply-demand mismatch has not improved effectively. In the short term, it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1170 yuan/ton, up 4.19%; the low-end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1140 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the main basis was -30 yuan/ton, down 528.57% [6] 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low-end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1140 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 3. Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method was -147.60 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method was -129 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15] - **Operating Rate, Production Capacity and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry was 84.35%, and the weekly output was 73.54 tons, including 39.78 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][21] - **Changes in Production Capacity**: In 2023, the total new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity was 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [22] 4. Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales Ratio**: The weekly sales ratio of soda ash was 106.02% [25] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28] 5. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory in soda ash factories nationwide was 149.43 tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was above the 5-year average [34] 6. Fundamentals - Supply-Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply-demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, production capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35] 7. Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply has been slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The market is supported at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Tips - The supply of natural rubber starts to increase, the spot is strong, domestic inventories start to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level The overall situation is neutral The market is supported at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data Supply and Demand - Supply is increasing, while downstream consumption such as automobile production and sales is seasonally rising, and tire production reaches a new high in the same period, but tire industry exports are declining [4][23][29][32] Inventory - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year, and the inventory in Qingdao area has increased both week - on - week and year - on - year Recently, the exchange inventory has risen slightly, and the Qingdao area inventory has rebounded [4][14][17] Import - The import volume of natural rubber has declined [20] Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full latex (non - deliverable) fell on December 16, 2025, and the basis weakened on the same day The spot price in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone is quoted in US dollars [8][35] Basis - The spot price is 14,900, and the basis is - 250, showing a bearish trend On December 16, 2025, the basis weakened [4][35] Multi - Empty Factors Bullish Factors - Downstream consumption is high, spot prices are resistant to decline, and there is a domestic anti - involution trend [6] Bearish Factors - Supply is increasing, domestic economic indicators are bearish, and there are trade frictions [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to move in a sideways consolidation. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventories are neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventories are stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Oil Type Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with production cuts falling short of expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Entering the subsequent production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,200, with a basis of 328, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year - on - year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,440, with a basis of 30, indicating a slight premium of the spot price over the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year - on - year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have increased [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral, and production cuts are less than expected. Entering the subsequent production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,700, with a basis of 637, indicating a significant premium of the spot price over the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year - on - year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is trading below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4] 4. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are historically high, and domestic inventories of oils and fats are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

沪锌期货早报-2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23350，基差+320；偏多。 3、库存：12月16日LME锌库存较上日增加31075吨至95550吨，12月16日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日增加431吨至51134吨；偏空。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月17日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘大幅承压，价格跌破前期低点。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减轻。产业链上，镍矿 价格稳定，海运费持平，矿库存高位，中长期预期供应宽松。镍铁价格止跌小幅反弹，成本线略有上涨。 不锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求 提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货114750，基差2460，偏多 3、库存：LME库存253308，-84，上交所仓单38693，+821，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2601：向下承压，多头暂规避。 不锈钢 每日观点 基差-沪镍 上一交易日上海 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91835，基差-95，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月16日铜库存增725至166600吨，上期所铜库存较上周增484吨至89389吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 全球政策宽松 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 （12.08 -12.12 ） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 观点与策略 甲醇周评：后期甲醇区域行情呈现销区偏强、西北偏弱、港口涨后震荡的分化格局，其中内地涨势依托 烯烃需求增量与运费支撑，港口走势需等待船期及库存等新变量指引。内地方面，据悉联泓新建烯烃装置负 荷提升至8成左右，虽然短期来看港口以及低价物流货源压制当地行情上涨节奏，但后期鲁南烯烃需求增量 逻辑明确下，当地甲醇上涨的趋势不变。另外雨雪天气导致运费上涨，对鲁北到货价格有支撑，在此背景下 预计销区甲醇继续偏强运行。产区方面，受冬季雨雪易影响运输的因素制约，产区甲醇工厂维持低库存运 营；叠加久泰甲醇装置恢复后当地烯烃需求走弱、跨区域运费 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报12.08-12.12 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，硅锰合金成本支撑力度依旧较强。虽焦炭价格小幅回落，但核心原料锰矿价格保持坚挺，其中高度氧 化矿涨幅尤为显著，成本端坚挺格局有效托底合金价格。 从供应端来看，期货层面，硅锰盘面近期仍维持震荡走 势，多呈现"开盘拉涨，尾盘回落"特点，但上行空间有限。现货层面，工厂零售报价意愿较低，多捂货不出，等待 盘面冲高后再出货，由此厂家库存压力有所抬升。北方地区合金厂近期新增硅锰产能稳定运行，后续将缓慢出铁，届 时供应压力进一步加大；南方地区等地受枯水期电价上涨带来的成本抬升影响，多数厂家选择避峰减产，减产企业较 多。其余地区合金厂开工维持低位，传统生产淡季出现减产情况。 从需求端来看，12月河 ...