交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 政策面扰动，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报9.22-9.26） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低位支撑盘面，但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差115，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-09-29 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 CONTENTS 目 录 4 基本面数据 1 每日提示 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：2900至2960区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，阿根廷出口创汇达到70亿美元目标后结束，美豆千点关口上方震 荡等待中美关税谈判后续和美国大豆产区收割天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回落，短 期技术性震荡整理，九月进口大豆到港维持偏高位和现货价格贴水压制盘面预期，短期 或回归震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2880（华东），基差-57，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存116.44万吨，上周113.62万吨，环比增加2.48%，去年同期134.68万 吨，同比减少13.54%。偏多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-29燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：交易商表示，亚洲高硫燃料油供应在套利货流入增加的背景下，近期将保持供应充足，而下游现货 需求在近几个交易日内表现参差不齐；近期低硫燃料油市场在充足库存背景下可能保持健康，相比往常紧张的 即期驳船运力或将为即期交付溢价提供一定短期支撑，由于库存充足，10月供应的低硫燃料油码头交货估值承 压，而买兴总体维持温和水平；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油412.94美元/吨，基差为117元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为483.5美元/吨，基差为64元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油9月24日当周 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导人通话同意平等磋 商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，下游逐渐转向旺季，管材、塑编等需求均出现增长，长假 临近，建议谨慎操作为主。当前PP交割品现货价6780（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： PP 2601合约基差-113，升贴水比例-1.6%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PP综合库存52.0万吨（-3.0），中 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-29甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：临近长假交易逐步放淡，预计本周国内甲醇市场波动有限。内地方面，下游原料库存高位后期采购预期缩 量，且运力也缩紧，贸易商多离场观望。西北CTO工厂本周大量外采下，上游甲醇工厂库存不多，节前也无排库需求。 缺乏明显因素影响，预计节前内地甲醇清淡整理。港口方面，空头方面仍占上风，预计节前甲醇市场价格或维持震荡调 整；10月变量较大，重点是伊朗部分装置是否如期检修，装船量减量及港口库存去库的程度，基本面边际改善下，关注 港口市场炒作下的低多机会；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2275元/吨，01合约基差-80，现货 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：全国棉花产量预计722万吨，新疆再创新高。ICAC9月报：25/26年度产量2550万 吨，消费2550万吨。USDA9月报：25/26年度产量2562.2万吨，消费2587.2万吨，期末库存 1592.5万吨。海关：8月纺织品服装出口265.4亿美元，同比下降5%。8月份我国棉花进口7万 吨，同比减少51.6%；棉纱进口13万吨，同比增加18.18%。农村部9月25/26年度：产量636万 吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存822万吨。偏空。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15043， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,800 - 73,960. In the future, demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore and salt lake ends with limited decline, and the lack of willingness to purchase at the power battery end. [10][11] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 21,847 tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74%. [8][9] - Demand: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 98,286 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.15%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - Cost: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 75,418 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%, resulting in a loss of 2,888 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 78,729 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 8,189 yuan/ton; the production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - Other indicators: The fundamentals are neutral; on September 26, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral; the overall inventory is 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average, which is neutral; the MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish; the net position of the main players is short, and the short position decreased, which is bearish. [9] 3.2 Market Overview - The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 73,750 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20%. [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: The price of 6% spodumene increased from 856 US dollars/ton to 857 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.12%. [14] - Production: The monthly production of lithium ore showed an increasing trend. For example, the monthly production of lithium ore in some months increased by 4.96% - 8.84%. [17] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the import volume from Australia decreased by 50.47%. [17] - Supply - demand balance: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance showed a tight situation in some months, with demand exceeding production and import in some periods. [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. The weekly production of some raw materials increased, and the monthly production also showed an overall increasing trend in some months. [17][29] - Import: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate increased by 57.79%, and the import volume from Chile increased by 81.83%. [17] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate fluctuated. In some months, there was a surplus, while in others, there was a shortage. [34] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide showed different trends in different periods. [37] - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide showed a certain degree of change, with a decrease in some months. [37] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide also fluctuated, with surpluses and shortages in different months. [39] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, such as spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and imported lithium carbonate, showed different trends. For example, the production of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate resulted in losses, while the salt lake end had sufficient profit margins. [9][42] 3.7 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, but was still higher than the historical average. [9] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: The price of lithium batteries showed a certain degree of stability, with some products remaining unchanged. [14] - Production and sales: The monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends in different periods. [53] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: The price of ternary precursors showed different trends for different types, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [59] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary precursors also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [59] - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors fluctuated, with surpluses and shortages in different months. [62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: The price of ternary materials showed different trends for different types, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [65] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of ternary materials also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [65] - Inventory: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed a certain degree of change. [68] 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - Price: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable. [71] - Cost and profit: The cost and profit of iron phosphate lithium also showed different situations, with some products having profits and some having losses. [71] - Production and inventory: The monthly production and weekly inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends. [74][76] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production, sales, and export: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed an overall increasing trend, and the sales penetration rate also showed an upward trend. [79][80] - Other indicators: The zero - batch ratio, inventory warning index, and inventory index of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different periods. [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. The manufacturing PMI in August reached 49.4%, showing improved business levels compared to the previous month [2]. - The basis is neutral as the spot price is 82,510 with a basis of 40, indicating a premium over the futures [2]. - The inventory situation is neutral. On September 26, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 144,400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - The market trend is bullish as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards, and the net position of the main players is long, although the long positions are decreasing [2]. - The expectation is that with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, the market is waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season of September. The incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has led to copper prices opening and closing higher, reaching a recent high [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises reducing production, scrap - copper policy relaxation, and the August manufacturing PMI at 49.4% show improved business levels; overall neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price 82,510, basis 40, premium over futures; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 26, copper inventory decreased by 25 to 144,400 tons, SHFE copper inventory decreased by 7,035 tons to 98,779 tons compared to last week; neutral [2]. - **Trend**: Closing price above the 20 - day moving average which is trending upwards; bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: Net long position of the main players, long positions decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory rising, geopolitical disturbances, waiting for September peak - season consumption guidance, and the mine incident in Indonesia leading to higher copper prices [2]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. 3.3 Spot - No specific summarized data provided, only the format of location, mid - price, price change, inventory type, total inventory, and inventory change is given [6]. 3.4 Exchange Inventory - The LME inventory (daily) and SHFE inventory (weekly) are mentioned, but no specific summarized data is provided [6][12]. 3.5 Bonded - Area Inventory - Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [14]. 3.6 Processing Fee - Processing fees are declining [16]. 3.7 CFTC - No specific summarized content provided [18]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation is expected to be slightly in surplus in 2024 and in a tight balance in 2025 [20]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc (ZN2511) is expected to be weak with oscillations. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc decline in an oscillatory manner, with shrinking trading volume and both long and short positions reducing, but more short - position exits. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average, with weak moving - average support. Short - term indicators show a rise in KDJ but operating in the weak zone, and the trend indicator indicates a decrease in bullish power and an increase in bearish power, with the bearish side having an expanding advantage [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, global zinc plate production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons [2]. 2. Basis - The spot price was 21,990 yuan, and the basis was +10, showing a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory - On September 26, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons compared to the previous day, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants increased by 990 tons to 57,573 tons [2]. 4. Futures Market Quotes - On September 26, the total trading volume of zinc futures on the futures exchange was 194,248 lots, with a total trading value of 2.14006319 billion yuan. The open interest was 230,281 lots, a decrease of 8,181 lots [3]. 5. Spot Market Quotes - On September 26, the price of zinc ingots in Aoshang was 21,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,230 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linzhou was 7,835 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From September 15 to September 25, the total social inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets decreased from 149,500 tons to 135,400 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons compared to September 18 and 9,100 tons compared to September 22 [5]. 7. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report - On September 26, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 57,573 tons, an increase of 990 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong increased by 695 tons, in Jiangsu decreased by 99 tons, and in Tianjin increased by 394 tons [6]. 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 26, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,025 tons to 42,775 tons, with registered warrants of 30,625 tons and cancelled warrants of 12,150 tons, accounting for 28.40% [7]. 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 26, the prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic regions remained unchanged, with prices ranging from 16,530 yuan/ton to 16,730 yuan/ton [9]. 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 26, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from major domestic smelters increased. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Muchuanzhishi was 22,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton; the price from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [13]. 11. Refined Zinc Production - In June 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [15]. 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 26, the processing fees for 50% - grade zinc concentrate in domestic regions ranged from 3,400 yuan/metal ton to 4,200 yuan/metal ton, and the processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 105 US dollars/dry ton [17]. 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - For the zinc contract zn2511 on September 26, the total trading volume of members on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 202,399 lots, a decrease of 39,621 lots compared to the previous day. The total long - position volume was 87,482 lots, a decrease of 639 lots, and the total short - position volume was 86,815 lots, a decrease of 5,194 lots [18].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: September 29, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, suggesting that due to the approaching long - holiday, cautious operation is recommended. It is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Analysis - **Fundamentals**: In August, official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, and Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export volume in August was $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7130 (+0), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is - 29, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 509,000 tons (-42,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The main position of LLDPE is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the demand for agricultural film is in the peak season but still weaker than previous years, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - situation shows improved manufacturing sentiment. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increased demand for pipes and plastic weaving. The current PP delivery spot price is 6780 (+30), with a neutral overall fundamental situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 113, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.6%, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 520,000 tons (-30,000), which is neutral [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of PP is net short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is oscillating, the crude oil price is fluctuating, the downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving is increasing, and the industrial inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [6]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors are weak demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7130 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7159 (-10), the basis is - 29 (+10). The PE comprehensive factory warehouse is 509,000 tons, and the social inventory is 535,000 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+30), the price of the 01 contract is 6893 (-5), the basis is - 113 (+35). The PP comprehensive factory warehouse is 520,000 tons, and the social inventory is 286,000 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has also been increasing, with a planned 11.0% growth in 2025. The import dependence has been relatively low and stable, and the consumption growth rate has shown an upward trend in general [16].