Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which has put pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Category Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase. Entering the production - cut season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,260, with a basis of 438, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7,600 - 8,000 [2]. Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,420, with a basis of 78, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,200 - 8,600 [3]. Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9,681, with a basis of 731, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,800 - 9,200 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Positives**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Likely Negatives**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23160，基差+190；偏多。 3、库存：12月17日LME锌库存较上日增加2150吨至97700吨，12月17日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少3265吨至47869吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为208元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为602.05元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月18日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21998吨，环比增长0.26%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103658吨，环比减少0.02%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 18524吨，环比减少1.68%。 供给端，2025年11月碳酸锂产量为95350实物吨，预测下月产量为98210实物吨，环比增加3.00%,2025 年11月碳酸锂进口量为25500实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加5.88%。需求端，预计 下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同期平 均水平，需求主 ...

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿由于年度任务完成，有自主减产现象，叠加产地安全检查频繁，产地供应延续偏 紧格局。近期中间贸易及洗煤企业参与度较低，多数企业以消耗前期库存为主，竞拍成交价与上期相比 多数下调，部分高价煤种仍出现流拍现象。考虑下游焦企刚需补库仍存，短期优质主焦煤价格依然坚挺， 而部分配焦煤出货一般，价格小幅回落；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1120，基差58；现货升水期货；偏多 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：下游钢厂检修有所增加，铁水产量持续回落，带动焦煤需求转弱。叠加下游焦钢库存虽处于 低位 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-18 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率同比明显回升，三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期 出口配额企业多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1670（- 0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135.7万吨（-3.8），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，工业需求按 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-12-18 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：生产利润修复乏力但供给收缩不及预期；地产拖累下游深加工订单偏弱，库存同期历 史高位；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货944元/吨，FG2605收盘价为1038元/吨，基差为-94元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存5822.70万重量箱，较前一周减少2.04%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、沙河地区"煤改气" ，行业冷修，产量损失。 利空： 1、地产终端需求依然疲弱，玻璃深加工企业订单 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved. In the short term, soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Fundamentals: Alkali plant production is at a high level, with the second - phase of Yuangxing expected to be put into operation before the end of the year, leading to an expected abundant supply. Downstream float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volumes are on a downward trend, and soda ash plant inventories are at a historically high level [2]. - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2605 is 1,170 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 35 yuan, indicating that the futures price is higher than the spot price [2]. - Inventory: The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [2]. - Disk: The price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [2]. - Expectation: Soda ash is expected to move in a volatile manner in the short term due to weak fundamentals [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - Bullish Factors: Equipment problems have led to enterprise production cuts for maintenance, resulting in a slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - Bearish Factors: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's production is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5]. 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,140 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | Current Value | 1,170 yuan/ton | 1,135 yuan/ton | - 35 yuan/ton | | Change Rate | 0.00% | - 0.44% | 16.67% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. 3.6 Supply in the Fundamentals - Production Profit: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 147.60 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process is - 129 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [15]. - Operating Rate, Production Capacity, and Output: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.35%. The weekly production of soda ash is 73.54 million tons, including 39.78 million tons of heavy soda ash, with production at a historically high level [18][21]. - Production Capacity Changes: From 2023 to 2025, there have been and are still plans for significant increases in soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the total new production capacity was 6.4 billion tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 billion tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 billion tons, with 1 billion tons actually put into production [22]. 3.7 Demand in the Fundamentals - Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly production - sales ratio of soda ash is 106.02% [25]. - Downstream Demand: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 157,200 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [28]. 3.8 Inventory in the Fundamentals The national soda ash plant inventory is 149.43 million tons, a 2.88% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and various growth rates [35].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-17原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2602： 1.基本面：美国劳工部周二公布报告显示，11月非农就业岗位增加6.4万个，失业率升至4.6%，为四年 多来最高水平；特朗普在社媒发文表示，他下令"全面彻底封锁所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮"， 包围委内瑞拉的舰队只会越来越大，给他们带来的冲击将是前所未有的——直到他们将之前从我们这 里窃取的所有石油、土地和其他资产归还给美国为止；中性 2.基差：12月16日，阿曼原油现货价为60.35美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为59.49美元/桶，基差 23.70元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月5日 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-17甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 1、基本面：多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面，内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力，但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平，叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启，且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿，供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看，传统下游逐步进入需求淡季，但新增需求亮点显著：联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时， 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率，销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位，但期补库需求仍 存，形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面，港口库存虽然延 ...