交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 黄金 1、基本面：市场等待贸易协定最终日，金价震荡回落；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不 一，欧洲主要股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.99 个基点报4.388%；美元指数涨1.02%报98.66，离岸人民币对美元贬值报7.1835； COMEX黄金期货跌0.65%报3314.00美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注中美经贸会谈、欧央行CPI预期、美国6月职位空缺、6月房价指 数。美欧贸易协定达成，但协定内容不及预期乐观，国内商品情绪大幅降温，金价 震荡。沪金溢价扩大至1.4元/克。关注本周贸易协定进展，降息预期依旧高涨，金 价震荡。 2、基差：黄金期货774.78，现货771.58，基差- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **For螺纹**: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is slightly decreasing at a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is expected to be in a high - level oscillation considering the weak real - estate market, cooling demand and domestic capacity - reduction plans [2]. - **For热卷**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may play a role. With a positive basis, inventory situation and price on the 20 - day line, but a net - short position of the main contract (with short positions decreasing), it is also expected to be in a high - level oscillation due to the weakening market supply - demand, blocked exports and domestic capacity - reduction plans [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **螺纹** - **Fundamentals**: Demand is poor, inventory is low and slightly decreasing, and the downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of螺纹 is 3400, and the basis is 152, which is positive [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 372.97 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of螺纹 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [2]. - **Likely Factors**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the continued downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry and weak terminal demand are negative [2][3]. **热卷** - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand are weakening, inventory is decreasing, and exports are blocked, with domestic policies potentially playing a role, being neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of热卷 is 3460, and the basis is 63, which is positive [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 267.16 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, which is positive [6]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is positive [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of热卷 is net - short, and short positions are decreasing, which is negative [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Fair demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations are positive; the entry of downstream demand into the seasonal off - season and pessimistic expectations are negative [6][7][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘20均线上下震荡运行。现货下游观望情绪升温，成交清淡，主要影响来自反内卷。产 业链上，矿价小幅回落，海运费由于运力不足继续坚挺，镍铁价格有一定启稳，成本线慢慢回升。不锈 钢7、8月是传统消费淡季，本周库存继续回落。新能源汽车产销数据较好，有利于镍的需求提升。中长 线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货123200，基差1580，偏多 3、库存：LME库存204036，+114，上交所仓单21953，+6，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2509：20均线上下宽幅震荡运行。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with stable manufacturing sentiment, a neutral basis, and mixed signals from inventory, price trends, and主力持仓. The copper price is expected to undergo a volatile adjustment due to factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79100, with a basis of 100, showing a premium over the futures, which is neutral [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 28, copper inventory decreased by 1075 to 127400 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 11133 tons to 74423 tons compared to last week, considered neutral [3]. - **Price Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward, indicating a bearish trend [3]. - **主力持仓**: The main net position is long, and the long position is increasing, suggesting a bullish trend [3]. - **Expectation**: With the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts, rising inventory, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will experience a volatile adjustment [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: No specific information provided - **利空**: No specific information provided - **Logic**: Domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [4] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12060000 tons, imports are 3730000 tons, exports are 460000 tons, apparent consumption is 15340000 tons, actual consumption is 15230000 tons, and there is a surplus of 110000 tons [23]. Other Information - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-29） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿产量仍受到不同因素影响，供应量有小幅缩减。受焦钢企业刚性采购需求支撑以及投 机需求释放，坑口出货顺利，煤矿签单顺畅，产地库存整体消耗至中低位水平，但市场情绪有所降温， 对高价资源接货意愿有所回落，观望情绪渐起；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1040，基差-60.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存791.1万吨，港口库存321.5万吨，独立焦企库存790.2万吨，总样本库存1902.8万吨， 较上周增加45.9万吨；偏空 6、预期：多地钢厂接涨焦炭第四轮提价，下游焦企多延续补库热情，刚需补库需求仍支撑炼焦煤价格 稳中偏强运行，但考虑终端需求及利润压制，继续上行空间有限，预计短期焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, with strong foreign spot prices and rising domestic inventories. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market is mainly driven by sentiment, suggesting short - term trading [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution; negative factors are increasing supply and the non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, foreign spot is strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rate is high, with a neutral outlook [4]. - The basis is 35 with a spot price of 15100, also neutral [4]. - The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased week - on - week and year - on - year, while the inventory in Qingdao has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, being neutral [4]. - The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish trend [4]. - The main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand** - Supply is increasing [4][6]. - Downstream consumption is high [6]. - **Spot Price** - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on July 28 [8]. - The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [11]. - **Inventory** - The exchange inventory has been continuously decreasing recently [14]. - The inventory in Qingdao has increased slightly recently [17]. - **Import** - The import volume has decreased seasonally [20]. - **Downstream Consumption** - Automobile production and sales have increased seasonally [23][26]. - Tire production has reached a new high in the same period [29]. - Tire industry exports have declined [32]. 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on July 28 [35]. 3.4 Multi - Empty Factors - **Positive Factors** - High downstream consumption [6]. - Resistant spot prices [6]. - Domestic anti - involution [6]. - **Negative Factors** - Increasing supply [6]. - Non - seasonal de - stocking in Qingdao [6].

沪锌期货早报-2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22730，基差+85；中性。 3、库存：7月28日LME锌库存较上日减少275吨至115500吨，7月28日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日增加478吨至13767吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判第三轮正在进行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市 场对金九银十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09可能临近交割月，期现价差回归动力增加。09短 期运行区间14000-14500。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价15609，基差1534（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部25/26年度7月预计期末库存823万吨；偏空。 4、盘面：2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-7-29 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面： "反内卷"情绪消退；玻璃生产利润修复，行业冷修速度放缓，开工率、产量下降至 历史同期低位；深加工订单不及往年同期，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1204元/吨，FG2509收盘价为1223元/吨，基差为-19元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6189.60万重量箱，较前一周减少4.69%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：政策利好有所消退，短期预计玻璃震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 1、主要逻辑：玻璃供给下滑至同期较低水平，下游阶段性补库，玻 ...

尿素早报 2025-7-29 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。国内宏观政策带来原料端利好影响。国内供应方面，日产及 开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开 工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品 现货1820（+30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差82，升贴水比例4.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存143.1万吨（+0.9），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线下，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，翻空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，宏观政策原料端利好，国内整体供过 ...