Da Yue Qi Huo
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大越期货尿素早报-20251215
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:38
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:当前日产及开工率企稳,综合库存有所回落,去库形态较明显。需求端,农业需 求、工业需求按需为主,复合肥开工率同比明显回升,三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大,近期 出口配额企业多完成集港,短期出口需求回落,国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割品现货1690 (+0),基本面整体中性; • 2. 基差: UR2601合约基差7,升贴水比例0.4%,中性; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存135.7万吨(-3.8),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约20日均线走平,收盘价位于20日线下,偏空; • 5. 主力持仓:UR主力持仓净空,减空,偏空; • 6. 预期:尿素主力合约盘面弱势下行,工业需求按需 ...
大越期货纯碱早报-20251215
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:37
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱: 1、基本面:碱厂产量高位,远兴二期年前预期投产,整体供给预期充裕;下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势,纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位;偏空 2、基差:河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1100元/吨,SA2605收盘价为1126元/吨,基差为-26元,期货升 水现货;偏空 3、库存:全国纯碱厂内库存149.43万吨,较前一周减少2.88%,库存在5年均值上方运行;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方运行,20日线向下;偏空 5、主力持仓:主力持仓净空,空减;偏空 6、预期:纯碱基本面疲弱,短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多: 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修,纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空: 1、23年以来 ...
大越期货沪铝周报-20251215
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:36
目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面(库存结构) 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报(12.8~12.12) 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号:Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 上周回顾 沪铝周报: 沪铝上周震荡调整,上周主力合约下跌0.7%,周五收盘报22170元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能,国 内房地产压制需求不振,取消对铝材出口退税,对于国内铝价构成利空,美国加增钢铝关税,消费有 所影响。国内基本面上,需求进入淡季,关注后期消费变化。上周LME库存519650吨,较前周出现小幅 减少,SHFE周库存减3695吨至119995吨。 期货主力 数据来源:博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源:Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | - ...
大越期货铁矿石早报-20251215
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-15 01:33
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证号: Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报(2025-12-15) 每日观点 铁矿石: 1、基本面:钢厂铁水产量开始减少,总体供需宽松,港口库存累库,终端需求偏弱;偏空 2、基差:日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价825,基差64;日照港巴混现货折合盘面价836,基差76,现货升水期 货;偏多 3、库存:港口库存16111.47万吨,环比增加,同比增加;偏空 4、盘面:价格在20日线下方,20日线走平;偏空 5、主力持仓:铁矿主力持仓净多,多减;偏多 6、预期:国内需求降低,港口累库,震荡偏空思路 利多: 利空: 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨,高价原料承受能力强 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石期现基差 铁矿石进 ...
大越期货原油早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:22
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oil market remains in a low - price operation. Although there are some positive factors, there is still a risk of continued decline without geopolitical news stimulation. SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 435 - 445, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. - Short - term, the market is waiting for geopolitical bullish factors; in the medium - and long - term, there is a risk of oversupply [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The US plans to intercept more oil tankers transporting Venezuelan oil, OPEC+ increased production slightly in November, and the IEA lowered the forecast of next year's global oil supply surplus. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On December 11, the basis was 26.44 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: US API and EIA crude inventories decreased, but Cushing area inventory increased. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged. Overall, it is neutral [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of October 28, WTI crude oil main position long orders increased; as of December 2, Brent crude oil main position long orders increased, which is bullish [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **US Oil Tanker Seizure**: The US is ready to seize more oil tankers off the Venezuelan coast, and the Treasury updated the Venezuelan sanctions list [5]. - **OPEC and IEA Reports**: OPEC+ increased production in November, and the IEA raised the forecast of 2026 global oil demand growth and lowered the supply growth forecast, predicting a slightly narrower supply surplus [5]. - **Ukrainian Peace Plan**: Ukraine submitted a revised 20 - point peace plan to the US, and the negotiation team will discuss security guarantees [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, consistent expectations of oil oversupply among institutions, and some progress in the US - Russia peace agreement negotiation [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil prices all declined on the day, with decreases ranging from 0.88% to 2.49% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market also decreased, with decreases ranging from 1.07% to 3.07% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories showed different trends in different periods, and Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged [3][10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of October 28, the net long position increased [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of December 2, the net long position increased [17].
大越期货甲醇早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:22
重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-12甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601: 1、基本面:多空交织下预计本周甲醇市场维持震荡整理。内地方面,内地甲醇工厂暂无库存压力,但内地甲醇开工处 于高位水平,叠加内蒙大型甲醇项目计划再度重启,且部分上游工厂表现出强烈的出货意愿,供应端也暂无缺口。需求 来看,传统下游逐步进入需求淡季,但新增需求亮点显著:联泓新建45万吨/年烯烃装置计划在12月10日投产。同时, 冬季北方地区雨雪天气频发可能影响运输效率,销区下游企业为规避原料供应风险原料库存保持高位,但期补库需求仍 存,形成对价格的隐性支撑。港口方面,港口库存虽然延续小库但依旧高位,下游需求一般,浙江MTO装置 ...
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:22
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号:F03105325 投资咨询证:Z0021337 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 2025年12月12日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看,上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨,环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看,上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨,环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨,环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看,外购锂辉石精矿成本为97323元/吨,日环比增长2.13%,生产所得为-5130元/吨,有所亏损;外 购锂云母成本为94369元/吨,日环比增长0.62%,生产所得为-4503元/吨,有所亏损;回收端生产成本普遍大 于矿石端成本,生产所得为负,排产积极性较低;盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨,盐湖端成本显著低 于 ...
大越期货沥青期货早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the asphalt market is that the supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 2935 - 2985 [8][9]. - The supply side shows that the planned production volume in December 2025 decreased slightly compared with the previous month, but the production capacity utilization rate increased this week, and the refineries increased production, which may increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products mostly below the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The base - point situation on December 11 shows that the spot price in Shandong is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are in a state of continuous accumulation, showing a neutral situation [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprises' shipment volume is 280,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%, and the output is 502,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 826,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. The refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the crude oil is weakening, with the support expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Base - point**: On December 11, the spot price in Shandong is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%; the factory - level inventory is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 670,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory is continuously destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are continuously accumulating, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased production, increasing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; the inventory is flat; the crude oil is weakening, and the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating between 2935 - 2985 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including price changes, basis changes, and inventory changes compared with the previous period [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory - level inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [66][69]. - **Social Inventory and Factory - level Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory - level inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory - level Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory - level inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation** - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][80]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment, New Local Special Bonds, and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [102][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory - level inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107][108].
大越期货PVC期货早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:21
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 1 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看,据隆众统计,2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨,环比减少2.29%;本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%,环比减少0.00个百分点;电石法企业产量35.5176万吨,环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨,环比增加1.46%;本周供给压力有所减少;下周预计检修有所减少,预计排产少量增加 需求端来看,下游整体开工率为49.07%,环比减少0.53个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游型材开工率 为35.87%,环比减少0.22个百分点,高于历史平均水平;下游管材开工率为37.4%,环比减少1.4个百 分点,低于历史平均水平;下游薄膜 ...
大越期货豆粕早报-20251212
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-12 02:17
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **For Bean Meal (M2605)**: It is expected to oscillate between 2740 and 2800. The market is neutral, with the spot price at 3040 (East China), a basis of 270, and a premium over the futures. The oil - mill bean - meal inventory is 120.32 million tons, up 4.49% week - on - week and 44.18% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending down. The main short positions have decreased with capital outflow. In the short term, it is likely to be weakly volatile, affected by factors like China's soybean purchases and South American planting weather [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: It is predicted to fluctuate between 4100 and 4200. The market is neutral, with a spot price of 4100, a basis of - 48, and a premium over the futures. The oil - mill soybean inventory is 733.96 million tons, up 2.65% week - on - week and 47.57% year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending down. The main short positions have increased with capital outflow. The domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in demand but is suppressed by Brazilian soybean production and domestic soybean yield increases [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary Sino - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's purchases and US soybean weather are uncertain, and the US market is strongly volatile above the thousand - point mark in the short term. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the oil - mill soybean inventory declined from a high in November. With normal US soybean harvesting weather and the preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal has returned to range - bound trading. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking. The weakening demand for bean meal in November has suppressed price expectations, and the interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the off - season demand has led to a return to the range - bound pattern. - The domestic oil - mill bean - meal inventory remains at a relatively high level. With the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation agreement, bean meal will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary Sino - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, the domestic oil - mill bean - meal inventory has no pressure, and there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - **Bearish Factors**: Brazil's soybean harvest is good, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans. The expected increase in domestic soybean production in the new season suppresses price expectations [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume Data**: The trading volume and average price of bean meal and rapeseed meal from December 3 to December 11 are presented, along with the price data of soybean futures and spot prices from December 4 to December 11 [17][19]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - and - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are provided, including data on harvested area, beginning inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [33][34]. - **Sowing, Growth, and Harvesting Progress**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from different years are detailed, including data such as sowing rate, emergence rate, flowering rate, pod - setting rate, defoliation rate, and harvesting rate [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - **USDA Supply - and - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - and - demand reports for the past six months are shown, including data on planting area, yield per unit, production, ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume for the US, as well as soybean production in Brazil and Argentina [46]. - **Other Data**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans has increased on a week - on - week basis but decreased on a year - on - year basis. The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from a high in November but increased overall on a year - on - year basis. The oil - mill soybean inventory remains at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory has returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have fallen to a low level, and the stocking demand has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has declined from a high level, and the bean - meal production in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has fluctuated with the US soybean price, and the margin on the futures market has fluctuated slightly [47][49][50][52][54][56]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content