1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Industrial Silicon - The fundamentals are bearish, with supply remaining high despite a reduction in production scheduling, and demand recovery at a low level. The cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,150 - 8,350 for the 2605 contract [6]. - Bullish factors include rising cost support and manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production. Bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply but weak demand in the downstream polysilicon market. The main logic lies in capacity clearance, cost support, and demand growth [14][15]. Polysilicon - The fundamentals are bearish. Supply production scheduling is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. The overall demand shows a continuous decline as wafer production, cell production, and component production all continue to decrease. The cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55,035 - 56,795 for the 2605 contract [10][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 88,000 tons, a 3.29% decrease from the previous week. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 72,000 tons, a 12.19% decrease from the previous week, with demand remaining low. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 was 2,874 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season. - Basis: On December 10th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 945 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 558,000 tons, a 1.45% increase from the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory was 182,500 tons, a 1.61% increase; the main port inventory was 131,000 tons, a 1.55% increase [6]. - Market trend: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 25,800 tons, a 7.50% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer production was 11.95GW, a 0.58% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 213,000 tons, a 9.23% increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease from the previous month. In November, the cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of cell external sales factories was 9.07GW, a 4.72% decrease. Currently, cell production is in a loss state. The production scheduling for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease from the previous month. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is in a profit state [11]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,700 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,300 yuan/ton [11]. - Basis: On December 10th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,300 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [12]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.55% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [12]. - Market trend: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The main position is net short, and short positions increased [12]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures closing prices: All contracts showed a decline compared to the previous day, with the decline rate ranging from 1.08% to 2.08%. - Basis: Most contracts showed an increase compared to the previous day, with the increase rate ranging from 10.47% to 109.67%. - Other indicators: The registered warehouse receipt number was 7,780, a 3.35% increase from the previous day. The weekly DMC production was 49,200 tons, with no change from the previous day. The daily capacity utilization rate was 74.84%, with no change. The daily DMC price was 13,600 yuan/ton, with no change [18]. Polysilicon - Futures closing prices: Some contracts showed an increase, and some showed a decrease compared to the previous day, with the change rate ranging from - 0.71% to 0.55%. - Basis: The change in the basis of each contract was different, with the change rate ranging from - 10.00% to 9.21%. - Other indicators: The daily prices of various types of polysilicon remained unchanged. The weekly total inventory was 291,000 tons, a 3.56% increase from the previous week [20]. 3.3 Price and Inventory Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report presents the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon from 2019 - 2025, as well as the inventory trends of industrial silicon in delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprises, and the number of registered warehouse receipts from 2018 - 2025 [23][29]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the price trends of the polysilicon market from 2025, including the main contract price, basis, and inventory trends [26]. 3.4 Production and Cost Trends Industrial Silicon - Production: The report shows the weekly production trends of SMM sample enterprises, monthly production trends by specification from 2023 - 2025, and the production capacity utilization rate trends of different regions [33]. - Cost: It presents the cost - profit trends of sample regions (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang) from 2022 - 2025 [40]. Polysilicon - The report shows the cost trends of the polysilicon industry from 2023 - 2025, including the price trends of different types of polysilicon, inventory, monthly production, monthly demand, and monthly capacity utilization rate [68]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - Weekly supply - demand balance: It shows the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 - 2025, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance. - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including production, import, export, actual consumption, and balance [42][45]. Polysilicon - Monthly supply - demand balance: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon from October 2024 - October 2025, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [71]. 3.6 Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - DMC price and production: It shows the DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, weekly production trends, and price trends from 2019 - 2025. - Downstream product prices: It shows the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 from 2022 - 2025. - Import - export and inventory: It shows the monthly import - export volume and inventory trends of DMC from 2019 - 2025 [48][50][54]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and supply: It shows the waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, import - export situation of unwrought aluminum alloy, SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price, and import ADC12 cost - profit trends from 2019 - 2025. - Inventory and production: It shows the monthly production trends of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, weekly production start rates of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and social inventory trends of aluminum alloy ingots from 2019 - 2025. - Demand: It shows the monthly production and sales volume trends of automobiles and the export trends of aluminum alloy wheels from 2018 - 2025 [58][61][63]. Polysilicon Downstream - Wafer: It shows the price, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends of wafers from 2021 - 2025. - Cell: It shows the price, production scheduling and actual production, weekly inventory, production start rate, and export trends of cells from 2022 - 2025. - Photovoltaic component: It shows the price, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export trends of photovoltaic components from 2021 - 2025. - Photovoltaic accessories: It shows the price trends of photovoltaic coatings, import - export trends of photovoltaic films and glass, monthly production trends of photovoltaic glass, and import - export trends of welding strips from 2021 - 2025. - Component cost - profit: It shows the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components, including silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit from 2024 - 2025. - Photovoltaic grid - connected power generation: It shows the trends of the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total amount, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar power generation from 2019 - 2025 [74][77][80].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2601： 1.基本面：美联储在重重分歧中下调利率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次；美国总统特朗普表 示，美国在委内瑞拉沿海扣押了一艘油轮。此举加剧了美国与加拉加斯的紧张关系，同时也推高了油 价；美国总统特朗普表示，美联储最新决定将基准利率下调25个基点，其降息幅度本"至少该翻 倍"；中性 2.基差：12月10日，阿曼原油现货价为62.48美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为61.73美元/桶，基差 27.55元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至12月5日当周API原油库存减少477.9万桶，预期减少175万桶 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views 2.1 Bean Meal - Bean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with the basis being positive, inventory increasing, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions decreasing and funds flowing out. In the short - term, it may show a weak oscillation pattern due to factors like the uncertainty of China's soybean purchases from the US and the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans [9]. 2.2 Soybean - Soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4100 - 4200. The market is neutral, with a negative basis, increasing inventory, the price below the 20 - day moving - average, the main short positions increasing and funds flowing out. The domestic soybean price is affected by the execution of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans [11]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the content 3.2 Recent News - The preliminary China - US tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US and the US soybean weather are still uncertain. The domestic arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level. The reduction of domestic pig - farming profits led to a low expectation of pig restocking, weakening the demand for bean meal in November [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Bean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - US trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the bean meal inventory of domestic oil mills; the weather in the US and South American soybean - producing areas is still uncertain [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November remained relatively high; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean harvesting weather and the follow - up of the preliminary China - US trade agreement [15]. 3.3.2 Soybean - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation of beans [16]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on the impact of the US soybean weather and the China - US trade tariff game [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Transaction Data - From December 2 to December 10, the trading volume of bean meal fluctuated, and the price also showed slight fluctuations. During this period, the trading volume of rapeseed meal was mostly 0, and only on December 10, 0.6 tons were traded. The average price difference between bean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17]. 3.4.2 Price Data - From December 3 to December 10, the prices of soybean futures and bean meal futures fluctuated. The prices of soybean and bean meal spot were relatively stable, with bean meal futures oscillating downward and the spot discount narrowing slightly [19][24]. 3.4.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - From December 1 to December 10, the warehouse receipts of soybeans and bean meal had different degrees of changes. For example, the bean - 1 warehouse receipts increased from 15,645 to 16,664, and the bean - 2 warehouse receipts changed from 4900 to 7100. The bean - meal warehouse receipts increased from 9450 to 23,830 and then remained stable [21]. 3.4.4 Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed to varying degrees, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 3.4.5 Sowing and Harvesting Progress - **2023/24 Argentina**: The sowing and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2023/24 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. Generally, the sowing progress was slightly faster than the same period last year but slightly slower than the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [35]. - **2024 US**: The sowing, growth, and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024 were compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall sowing and growth progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average, and the harvesting progress was faster than the same period last year and the five - year average [36][37][39]. - **2024/25 Brazil**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting and harvesting progress was close to the same period last year and the five - year average [40][41]. - **2024/25 Argentina**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in 2024/25 was compared with the same period last year and the five - year average. The overall planting progress was slightly faster than the same period last year and close to the five - year average [42]. - **2025 US**: The harvesting progress of soybeans on September 21 was 9% [43]. - **2025/26 Brazil**: As of November 29, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 86%, compared with 90% in the same period last year and 84.4% of the five - year average [44]. - **2025/26 Argentina**: As of November 26, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans was 36%, compared with 37% in the same period last year and 45% of the five - year average [45]. 3.4.6 USDA Supply - Demand Report - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, output, ending inventory, new - bean export, and crushing volume of US soybeans changed to varying degrees. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans in November was 1.75 billion tons, and that of Argentine soybeans was 0.485 billion tons [46]. 3.4.7 Other Data - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year as a whole. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the bean - meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fell to a low level, and the stocking demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the bean - meal output in September increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans oscillated and rebounded following the US soybeans, and the on - paper profit fluctuated slightly [47][49][50]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a tight balance, and the market is subject to emotional fluctuations triggered by news. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 92,240 - 95,920 [8][9][13]. - On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, and it is predicted that the production in December 2025 will be 98,210 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.00%. The import volume in November 2025 was 25,500 tons, and it is predicted that the import volume in December will be 27,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.88%. [8][9] - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 0.63% month - on - month, and that of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% month - on - month. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month and the inventory will be reduced [8][9]. - In terms of cost, the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased month - on - month, but was lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged day - on - day, and production was at a loss. The cost of the salt lake end was low, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 21,939 tons, up 0.33% month - on - month, higher than the historical average. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary material sample enterprises decreased. In November 2025, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, and it is predicted to be 98,210 tons in December, up 3.00% month - on - month. The import volume was 25,500 tons, and it is expected to be 27,000 tons in December, up 5.88% month - on - month. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 94,487 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 3,883 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 93,100 yuan/ton, and the production profit was - 4,675 yuan/ton. The cost of the salt lake end was 31,477 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - **Market Indicators**: The fundamental situation is neutral; on December 10, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 3,280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, higher than the historical average, and the situation is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position increased, which is bearish [10]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end, with a limited decline range. The main logic is the emotional fluctuations caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [11][12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Price Data**: The prices of lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium salts generally increased, while the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly by 0.05% [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate and other products showed different degrees of growth. For example, the monthly production of lithium carbonate in November 2025 was 95,350 tons, a 3.35% increase from the previous month [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production and export volume of lithium iron phosphate increased, and the monthly production of ternary materials also increased. The monthly power battery loading volume increased, and the sales volume and export volume of new energy vehicles also increased [20]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.04% month - on - month, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 14.62% and the downstream inventory increasing by 4.08%. The inventory of ternary materials decreased by 2.68% [10][20].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 3 3、库存: 社会库存为74.5万吨，环比减少3.74%，厂内库存为58.8万吨，环比增加1.20%，港口稀释沥青库存 为库存为67万吨，环比增加17.54%。社会库存持续去库，厂内库存持续累库，港口库存持续累库。 中性。 4、盘面: MA20向下，02合约期价收于MA20下方。 偏空。 5、主力持仓: 主力持仓净空，空减。 偏空。 每日观点 利多：原油成本相对高位，略有支撑。 利空：高价货源需求不足；整体需求下行，欧美经济衰退预期加强。 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase as China enters the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, and the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. The demand side shows that the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption, but the demand for cured meat gradually supports the price bottom. The market may see an increase in both supply and demand this week, with pig prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. The report has a neutral view on the overall situation. The expected trading range for the LH2603 contract of live pigs is around 11100 - 11500 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic live pig consumption market is affected by the arrival of the off - season, swine fever has spread, pig slaughter has increased, and the spot price is weak in the short - term and maintains a range - bound pattern in the medium - term [10]. - After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short - term. Affected by the increase in supply, the live pig spot price is oscillating weakly. The continued decline space may be limited, and it may show a bottom - fishing and rebound trend [10]. - The loss of domestic live pig breeding profits has recently expanded, short - term profits have deteriorated, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has weakened in the short - term. The reduction in both supply and demand supports the short - term expected price of live pig futures and spot [10]. - The live pig spot price is oscillating downward, and the futures are weak in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term as a whole. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - The domestic live pig supply enters the off - season after the long holiday [11]. - The continued decline space of the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [11]. Bearish Factors - The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the initial Sino - US trade agreement [11]. - The domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. Main Logic - The market focuses on the pig slaughter situation and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - The annual live pig consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a rebound in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [60]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Other Data Presented - **Price Data**: The report provides data on live pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603 contracts), live pig futures warehouse receipts, and ex - factory prices of ternary live pigs in different regions from December 3 to December 10 [12]. - **Graphical Data**: The report includes multiple graphs showing the trends of live pig futures basis and spreads, prices of different specifications of live pigs, various supply - side indicators (such as binary sow prices, piglet indicators, inventory, import, cost, profit, etc.), slaughter - end prices and profits, demand - side consumption trends, pig - grain ratio, and the situation of pig purchase and release reserves from 2019 to 2024 [13][15][21][48][58][61][65][67][69].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 to 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday, the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight, and the decreasing demand suppresses the price. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue has reduced the short - term export and domestic supply [11]. - The preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports by China has been established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise in the future, supporting commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: The preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports by China and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping case on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - The current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 2nd to 10th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3074 - 3095, and the trading volume varied from 8.55 - 27.85 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2460 - 2520, and the trading volume was mostly 0, except for 0.6 tons on December 10th [13]. - The rapeseed meal futures price and spot price fluctuated. The spot price was at a premium, with a slight fluctuation. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract expanded slightly [18][20]. - The price of aquatic fish decreased slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: The rapeseed meal market is affected by soybean meal and technical adjustments. The spot demand peak is over, but the low inventory supports the price. The short - term price is affected by soybean meal and the Sino - Canadian trade situation, remaining range - bound [9]. - Basis: The spot price is 2490, with a basis of 161, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish [9]. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward, which is bearish [9]. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - Expectation: Affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, the rapeseed meal will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：供应端有所扰动，冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，11月中国制造业采购经理指 数（PMI）为49.2%，较上月回升0.2个百分点，仍处于收缩区间但显现边际改善；中性。 2、基差：现货91620，基差-230，贴水期货； 中性。 3、库存：12月10日铜库存减700至164975吨，上期所铜库存较上周减9025吨至88905吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：库存回升，地缘扰动仍存印尼的Grasberg Block Cave矿事件发酵，铜价再次创出历史新高， 高位运行 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 每日观点 铜: 全球政策 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月11日 2、基差：现货23200，基差+125；偏多。 3、库存：12月10日LME锌库存较上日增加1650吨至59800吨，12月10日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日减少1297吨至54770吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空减；偏空。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌 ...