交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为233元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为672.41元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产亏损为2874元/吨，枯水期成本支 撑有所上升。 2、基差: 12月11日，华东不通氧现货价9200元/吨，05合约基差为970元/吨，现货 升水期货。 偏多。 3、库存: ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to an oscillatory state, awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal, and the market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, with attention on subsequent developments [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No relevant information provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but due to Sino - Canadian trade issues, short - term exports are reduced, affecting domestic supply expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with a relative offset between Ukraine's rapeseed production decline and Russia's increase. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From December 2nd to 10th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3074 to 3095, and the trading volume from 8.55 to 27.85 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2460 to 2520, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.6 million tons on December 10th. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 566 to 614 [13]. - From December 3rd to 11th, the price of near - month 2601 rapeseed meal futures ranged from 2355 to 2422, and the price of main 2605 futures from 2317 to 2409. The rapeseed meal spot price (in Fujian) ranged from 2460 to 2520 [15]. - From December 2nd to 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded in an oscillatory manner, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium fluctuating slightly. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal spot prices has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has expanded slightly [18][20]. - There were no ship arrival forecasts for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills remained at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory was also low. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remained at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has declined slightly, while the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - No relevant information provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Fundamental analysis: Rapeseed meal is oscillating narrowly, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. Due to uncertainties in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, the short - term trend is influenced by soybean meal and maintains an oscillatory pattern within the range, with a neutral outlook. - Basis: The spot price is 2500, and the basis is 166, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish. - Inventory: The rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% from last week's 1.8 million tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 2.2 million tons in the same period last year, which is bullish. - Market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish. - Main position: The main long positions have decreased, but the capital has flowed in, which is bullish. - Expectation: Rapeseed meal has returned to an oscillatory state due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With recent rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：银价拉升继续带动金价走高；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股 指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率涨0.78个基点报 4.155%；美元指数跌0.28%报98.36，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.0511；COMEX黄金期 货涨2.00%报4309.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货957.9，现货951.51，基差-5.39，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单91302千克，增加3千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 6、预期：今日关注美联储和欧央行委员讲话、英国10月GDP。市场认为美联储鸽 派，银价继续拉升，金银比处于绝对低位，金价押涨升温，带动金价回升。沪金溢 价为-6.8元/克，国内黄金情绪 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The overall price of oils and fats is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans for export. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View of Different Oils - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reduction season [2] - Basis: The spot price is 8408, with a basis of 372, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 1180000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, which is bearish [2] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have increased, which is bullish [2] - Expectation: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7800 - 8200 [2] - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [3] - Basis: The spot price is 8646, with a basis of 4, indicating that the spot price is slightly higher than the futures price, which is neutral [3] - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory was 580000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 34.1%, which is bullish [3] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3] - Main Position: The short positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bullish [3] - Expectation: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [3] - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cut. Current export data shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply will increase in the subsequent production - increase season [4] - Basis: The spot price is 9955, with a basis of 649, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory was 560000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, which is bearish [4] - Disk: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - Main Position: The long positions of the main contract have decreased, which is bearish [4] - Expectation: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9200 - 9600 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Lido**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **Bearish**: The price of oils and fats is at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5]

大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年12月12日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预 计从之前的280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8 月份预估高出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年10月底，25/26 年度本期制糖全国累计产糖88.3万吨；全国累计销糖9.16万吨；销糖率10.37%。2025年10月中国 进口食糖75万吨，同比增加21万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计11. ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-12） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：个别煤矿仍处于停产减产状态，整体供应恢复缓慢。受焦炭第二轮提降影响，下游采购情 绪消极，贸易商和独立洗煤厂等中间环节减少采购、积极出货，煤矿普遍反馈下游续单情况不佳，部分 煤矿库存压力显现。同时昨日线上竞拍整体多降价成交或流拍，部分已跌煤种成交表现尚好，但价格也 多在底价附近成交；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差135；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂对焦炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 92,795, with a basis of 575, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - On December 11, copper inventory increased by 875 to 165,850 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9,025 tons from the previous week to 88,905 tons [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [2]. - Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances remain, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting. Copper prices have reached a new high and are operating at a high level [2]. - In the near - term, the logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral, with supply - side disturbances, PMI improvement, and scrap copper policy changes [2]. - The basis situation is neutral [2]. - Inventory conditions are neutral [2]. - The disk performance is bullish [2]. - The main position situation is bearish [2]. - The expected copper price trend is to operate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic includes global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus of 110,000 tons, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [19][21]. Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied from December to January, and the downstream marine fuel oil demand lacks support. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a state of supply surplus, which will continue for some time [3]. - The spot price of fuel oil is flat against the futures price. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased in the week of December 10, 2025. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - increased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - increased. - Overnight crude oil fluctuated. Although the OPEC and IEA monthly reports were optimistic about demand, the market was pessimistic about the supply surplus. The price of downstream fuel oil generally followed the movement of crude oil. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2350 - 2400, and LU2602 in the range of 2940 - 3000 [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2420, and the current value is 2394, a decrease of 26 or 1.07%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3006, and the current value is 3003, a decrease of 3 or 0.10%. The FU basis changed from - 7 to 14, an increase of 21 or 281.22%, and the LU basis changed from 45 to - 6, a decrease of 50 or 112.50% [5]. - The previous value of the spot price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 432.00, and the current value is 426.00, a decrease of 6 or 1.39%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 444.00, and the current value is 440.00, a decrease of 4 or 0.90%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 330.69, and the current value is 327.74, a decrease of 2.95 or 0.89%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 420.50, and the current value is 410.69, a decrease of 9.81 or 2.33%. The previous value of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 301.14, and the current value is 299.26, a decrease of 1.88 or 0.62%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 612.77, and the current value is 606.54, a decrease of 6.24 or 1.02% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Russia's fuel oil export restrictions; the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will be well - supplied from December to January, and downstream demand lacks support. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a state of supply surplus [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, with the spot price flat against the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 10, 2025 was 2241.9 million barrels, an increase of 118 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short - increased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight crude oil fluctuated. The price of downstream fuel oil generally followed the movement of crude oil. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2350 - 2400, and LU2602 in the range of 2940 - 3000 [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 1, 2025 was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels; on October 8, it was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels; on October 15, it was 2235.9 million barrels, an increase of 174 million barrels; on October 22, it was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels; on October 29, it was 2092.9 million barrels, a decrease of 652 million barrels; on November 5, it was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels; on November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels; on November 19, it was 2344.9 million barrels, an increase of 257 million barrels; on November 26, it was 2059.9 million barrels, a decrease of 285 million barrels; on December 3, it was 2123.9 million barrels, an increase of 64 million barrels; on December 10, it was 2241.9 million barrels, an increase of 118 million barrels [8]. 5. Spread Data The report presents the high - low sulfur futures spread chart, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel)**: The overall situation is bearish. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated due to some production cuts, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall demand for nickel is only slightly boosted by the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The SHFE Nickel 2601 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds in the medium and long term [2]. - **For Stainless Steel**: The situation is neutral. The spot price of stainless steel has increased, the cost line is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The Stainless Steel 2602 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: The price of SHFE Nickel主力 decreased by 1220 yuan to 115870 yuan on December 11th compared to the previous day. The price of LME Nickel decreased by 65 dollars to 14610 dollars. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 300 yuan to 118850 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel主力 increased by 70 yuan to 12625 yuan on December 11th compared to the previous day. The price of cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions such as Wuxi and Foshan increased slightly [11]. **Inventory Situation** - **Nickel**: As of December 5th, the SHFE nickel inventory was 42508 tons, with the futures inventory at 34764 tons, an increase of 1726 tons and 1455 tons respectively. On December 11th, the LME nickel inventory was 252852, a decrease of 240 compared to the previous day. The SHFE nickel (warehouse receipt) was 33939, a decrease of 296 [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 5th, the national stainless steel inventory was 108.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.58 million tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 66.43 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons. On December 11th, the stainless steel warehouse receipt was 61378, a decrease of 120 compared to the previous day [18][19]. **Price of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel** - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 29 dollars per wet ton on December 11th compared to the previous day. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [22]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) increased by 1 yuan to 889 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) remained unchanged at 3200 yuan per ton [22]. **Stainless Steel Production Cost** - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12546 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12984 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16186 yuan [24]. **Nickel Import Cost** The calculated import price of nickel was 116903 yuan per ton [27]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, and some production cuts have reduced the short - term supply pressure [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains, the inventory is at a high level, and the ferronickel price is weak [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23230，基差+235；偏多。 3、库存：12月11日LME锌库存较上日增加550吨至60350吨，12月11日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少1968吨至52802吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5 ...