交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-12） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：个别煤矿仍处于停产减产状态，整体供应恢复缓慢。受焦炭第二轮提降影响，下游采购情 绪消极，贸易商和独立洗煤厂等中间环节减少采购、积极出货，煤矿普遍反馈下游续单情况不佳，部分 煤矿库存压力显现。同时昨日线上竞拍整体多降价成交或流拍，部分已跌煤种成交表现尚好，但价格也 多在底价附近成交；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差135；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂对焦炭 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price is 92,795, with a basis of 575, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - On December 11, copper inventory increased by 875 to 165,850 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 9,025 tons from the previous week to 88,905 tons [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [2]. - Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances remain, and the Grasberg Block Cave mine incident in Indonesia is fermenting. Copper prices have reached a new high and are operating at a high level [2]. - In the near - term, the logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily View - Copper's fundamentals are neutral, with supply - side disturbances, PMI improvement, and scrap copper policy changes [2]. - The basis situation is neutral [2]. - Inventory conditions are neutral [2]. - The disk performance is bullish [2]. - The main position situation is bearish [2]. - The expected copper price trend is to operate at a high level [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic includes global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance in 2024 shows a slight surplus of 110,000 tons, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [19][21]. Other Information - The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. - The processing fee has declined [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied from December to January, and the downstream marine fuel oil demand lacks support. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a state of supply surplus, which will continue for some time [3]. - The spot price of fuel oil is flat against the futures price. The Singapore fuel oil inventory increased in the week of December 10, 2025. The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward. The high - sulfur main position is short - increased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - increased. - Overnight crude oil fluctuated. Although the OPEC and IEA monthly reports were optimistic about demand, the market was pessimistic about the supply surplus. The price of downstream fuel oil generally followed the movement of crude oil. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2350 - 2400, and LU2602 in the range of 2940 - 3000 [3]. Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Prompt - The previous value of the FU main contract futures price was 2420, and the current value is 2394, a decrease of 26 or 1.07%. The previous value of the LU main contract futures price was 3006, and the current value is 3003, a decrease of 3 or 0.10%. The FU basis changed from - 7 to 14, an increase of 21 or 281.22%, and the LU basis changed from 45 to - 6, a decrease of 50 or 112.50% [5]. - The previous value of the spot price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil was 432.00, and the current value is 426.00, a decrease of 6 or 1.39%. The previous value of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil was 444.00, and the current value is 440.00, a decrease of 4 or 0.90%. The previous value of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was 330.69, and the current value is 327.74, a decrease of 2.95 or 0.89%. The previous value of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was 420.50, and the current value is 410.69, a decrease of 9.81 or 2.33%. The previous value of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil was 301.14, and the current value is 299.26, a decrease of 1.88 or 0.62%. The previous value of Singapore diesel was 612.77, and the current value is 606.54, a decrease of 6.24 or 1.02% [6]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Russia's fuel oil export restrictions; the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and the sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Likely to Fall**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. - **Market Drivers**: The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and the demand is neutral [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market will be well - supplied from December to January, and downstream demand lacks support. The Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil market is in a state of supply surplus [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is - 7 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 11 yuan/ton, with the spot price flat against the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of December 10, 2025 was 2241.9 million barrels, an increase of 118 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The high - sulfur main position is short - increased, and the low - sulfur main position is long - increased [3]. - **Expectation**: Overnight crude oil fluctuated. The price of downstream fuel oil generally followed the movement of crude oil. FU2601 is expected to operate in the range of 2350 - 2400, and LU2602 in the range of 2940 - 3000 [3]. 4. Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory on October 1, 2025 was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels; on October 8, it was 2061.9 million barrels, a decrease of 164 million barrels; on October 15, it was 2235.9 million barrels, an increase of 174 million barrels; on October 22, it was 2744.9 million barrels, an increase of 509 million barrels; on October 29, it was 2092.9 million barrels, a decrease of 652 million barrels; on November 5, it was 2106.9 million barrels, an increase of 14 million barrels; on November 12, it was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels; on November 19, it was 2344.9 million barrels, an increase of 257 million barrels; on November 26, it was 2059.9 million barrels, a decrease of 285 million barrels; on December 3, it was 2123.9 million barrels, an increase of 64 million barrels; on December 10, it was 2241.9 million barrels, an increase of 118 million barrels [8]. 5. Spread Data The report presents the high - low sulfur futures spread chart, but no specific numerical analysis of the spread is provided [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **For Shanghai Nickel (SHFE Nickel)**: The overall situation is bearish. Although the supply pressure has been alleviated due to some production cuts, the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged. The inventory is at a high level, and the overall demand for nickel is only slightly boosted by the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles. The SHFE Nickel 2601 is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to sell on rebounds in the medium and long term [2]. - **For Stainless Steel**: The situation is neutral. The spot price of stainless steel has increased, the cost line is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The Stainless Steel 2602 is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Price Overview** - **Nickel**: The price of SHFE Nickel主力 decreased by 1220 yuan to 115870 yuan on December 11th compared to the previous day. The price of LME Nickel decreased by 65 dollars to 14610 dollars. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 300 yuan to 118850 yuan [11]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel主力 increased by 70 yuan to 12625 yuan on December 11th compared to the previous day. The price of cold - rolled stainless steel in some regions such as Wuxi and Foshan increased slightly [11]. **Inventory Situation** - **Nickel**: As of December 5th, the SHFE nickel inventory was 42508 tons, with the futures inventory at 34764 tons, an increase of 1726 tons and 1455 tons respectively. On December 11th, the LME nickel inventory was 252852, a decrease of 240 compared to the previous day. The SHFE nickel (warehouse receipt) was 33939, a decrease of 296 [13][14]. - **Stainless Steel**: On December 5th, the national stainless steel inventory was 108.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.58 million tons from the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 66.43 million tons, a decrease of 0.49 million tons. On December 11th, the stainless steel warehouse receipt was 61378, a decrease of 120 compared to the previous day [18][19]. **Price of Nickel Ore and Ferronickel** - **Nickel Ore**: The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained at 57 dollars per wet ton, and the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained at 29 dollars per wet ton on December 11th compared to the previous day. The freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged [22]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) increased by 1 yuan to 889 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) remained unchanged at 3200 yuan per ton [22]. **Stainless Steel Production Cost** - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12546 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12984 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16186 yuan [24]. **Nickel Import Cost** The calculated import price of nickel was 116903 yuan per ton [27]. **Influencing Factors** - **Positive Factors**: The Federal Reserve may cut interest rates, and some production cuts have reduced the short - term supply pressure [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic nickel production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there are no new demand growth points, the long - term oversupply pattern remains, the inventory is at a high level, and the ferronickel price is weak [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23230，基差+235；偏多。 3、库存：12月11日LME锌库存较上日增加550吨至60350吨，12月11日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少1968吨至52802吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡回落走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The production profit repair is weak, supply contraction is less than expected, downstream deep - processing orders are weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory is at a historically high level for the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 964 yuan/ton to 956 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.83%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large boards remained unchanged at 968 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 4 yuan/ton to 12 yuan/ton, a rise of 200.00% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 968 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Analysis - Cost Side - Not provided with specific analysis content other than mentioning glass production profit. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%, at a historically low level for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with production capacity at a historically low level for the same period [25][27]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470.82 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historically low level for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [30][5]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 58.227 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.04% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [43]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 - 2024E, the production and consumption of float glass have shown different growth and decline trends. For example, in 2021, production increased by 9.88% and consumption increased by 6.87%. In 2024E, production is expected to increase by 3.94% and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.15% [44]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: "Coal - to - Gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from deep - processing enterprises; poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry and cautious attitudes among traders and processors [5]. Main Logic - The glass supply is stabilizing at a low level, the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are dismal, and the glass factory inventory is rising. It is expected that glass will fluctuate weakly at a low level [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak. The production of soda ash plants is at a high level, and the second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, with abundant overall supply expected. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and fluctuating trend [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and inventory at a high level compared to the same period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures was 1103 yuan/ton, up 0.82% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1100 yuan/ton, with no change. The main basis was - 3 yuan/ton, down 150.00% from the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market was 1100 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - The profit of heavy soda ash production was at a historical low. The profit of the North China ammonia - soda process was - 118.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the East China co - production process was - 220 yuan/ton [14]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 80.74%. The weekly output was 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, and the output was at a historical high [17][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there were significant new production capacity plans for soda ash. The new production capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and the planned new production capacity in 2025 was 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 108.16% [24]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.72 tons, and the operating rate was 74.85% [27]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 149.43 tons, a decrease of 2.88% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [34]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E showed fluctuations. In 2024E, the effective production capacity was 3930 tons, the output was 3650 tons, the apparent supply was 3536 tons, the total demand was 3379 tons, and the supply - demand difference was 157 tons [35]. 3.6 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: Equipment problems led to production reduction and maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply was slow [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转。供需端，农 膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6570（-10）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差12，升贴水比例0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.8万吨（+1.1），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The supply - demand pattern of PTA has not changed significantly recently. Some polyester factories have made phased replenishments, and the spot basis fluctuates within a range. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5]. - MEG: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has risen to around 820,000 tons, reaching a high for the year. The arrival at the main port this week is moderately high, and with some domestic - trade trucks delivering into the tank, the short - term explicit inventory of ethylene glycol will still accumulate moderately. The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol in December is neutral, but there is great pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term, and the market sentiment is mainly under pressure. As the delivery period approaches, the market will gradually limit positions, and it is expected that ethylene glycol will operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No information provided in the document. 3.2每日提示 - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and the spot basis slightly strengthened. Polyester factories mainly replenished their stocks. The main - port goods in December were negotiated and traded at a discount of around 20 to the 01 contract, with sporadic transactions at a discount of 23 - 25 to the 01 contract. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at a discount of 26 to the 01 contract, and the price negotiation range was between 4,600 and 4,680. Today, the mainstream spot basis is 01 - 21. The PTA factory inventory is 3.86 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased [5][6]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. In the night session, ethylene glycol fluctuated and declined. The spot negotiation was around a discount of 5 - 18 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated weakly, and the buying interest in the market was average. The spot negotiation for this week and next week was around a discount of 7 - 20 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the market dropped rapidly, and the low - level spot was traded at around 3,576 yuan/ton. In terms of US dollars, the center of the ethylene glycol overseas market declined during the day. In the morning, the negotiation for recent shipments was around 434 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments from the end of December to early January was around 437 - 438 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the negotiation center dropped rapidly, and at the end of the session, the recent shipments were traded at around 424 US dollars/ton, and the shipments from the end of December to early January were traded at around 429 US dollars/ton. There were appropriate traders participating in buying during the day. The inventory in the East China region is 758,000 tons, an increase of 38,000 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased [7]. 3.3今日关注 No information provided in the document. 3.4基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for PTA, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in inventory and the supply - demand gap [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, polyester demand for ethylene glycol, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the changes in port inventory and the supply - demand gap [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, paraxylene, PTA, ethylene glycol, and polyester fibers from December 10 to December 11, 2025, as well as the changes in basis and processing fees [13]. 3.5 PTA每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The futures market fluctuated and closed higher, the spot basis slightly strengthened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net long position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly recently. The futures market fluctuates with the cost side. Attention should be paid to oil price trends and downstream demand [5][6]. 3.6 MEG每日观点 - Fundamental analysis: The price center declined weakly, the inventory increased, the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net short position of the main contract has increased. - Expectation: The port inventory has reached a high for the year. There is pressure for inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long term. It is expected to operate at a low level in the short term. Attention should be paid to the new changes in the equipment at low prices [7]. 3.7影响因素总结 - **Likely to be Bullish**: A 500,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Zhejiang has been shut down for maintenance as planned recently and is expected to restart around the end of January. A 400,000 - ton/year MEG plant in South China has been shut down for maintenance today, with a preliminary planned maintenance period of around 10 days [8][9]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: A 250,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Taiwan has been restarted with temperature rise. The plant was shut down for a short - term maintenance at the end of November [9]. 3.8 当前主要逻辑和风险点 Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored for the market rebound [10].

Report Information - Report Name: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged). The overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Summary by Section Urea Fundamentals - **Supply and Demand**: Current daily production and operating rate have a slight decline. The comprehensive inventory has decreased, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Agricultural and industrial demands are on - demand, the compound fertilizer operating rate has increased year - on - year, and winter storage demand is strong. The domestic market is still oversupplied [5]. - **Base Spread**: The base spread of the UR2601 contract is 52, and the premium/discount ratio is 3.1%, showing a bullish signal [5]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons (- 68,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [5]. - **Expectation**: The main contract of urea is weakly declining. Industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate weakly today [5]. Urea Overview - **Positive Factors**: Inventory de - stocking [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic oversupply and continuous new high in daily production [6]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the Shandong spot price is 1710 (+ 10), the Henan spot price is 1690 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 2763 [7]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1638 (- 7), the base spread is 52 (+ 7), the price of the UR05 contract is 1703 (- 10), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1716 (- 5) [7]. | | **Inventory** | The warehouse receipt is 11,652 (+ 424), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.396 million tons, the UR factory inventory is 1.291 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 105,000 tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10] |