Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, and Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, with a planned B50 implementation in 2026. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8472, with a basis of 220, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2]. - **Expectation**: Soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [2]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8670, with a basis of 50, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: Palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [3]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is neutral. Currently, shipping survey agencies show a 4% month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil export data this month. Subsequently, entering the production - increase season, the supply of palm oil will increase [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10115, with a basis of 370, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9500 - 9900 [4]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Edible oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic edible oil inventories are continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report anticipates that the urea market will experience a volatile trend today. Although there is a recent increase in agricultural demand and inventory reduction is boosting market sentiment, the overall supply in the domestic market still significantly exceeds demand [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates have rebounded to recent highs, while comprehensive inventory has declined, showing an obvious destocking pattern. Agricultural demand has increased recently, and industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have both increased year-on-year. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports, combined with inventory destocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market remains oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -7, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, indicating a neutral situation [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to rebound in a volatile manner. Industrial demand is based on needs, and agricultural demand has increased recently. Inventory destocking has boosted market sentiment. However, the overall oversupply in the domestic market remains obvious, and the UR is expected to trend in a volatile manner today [4]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Lido**: Inventory destocking [5]. - **Likong**: The domestic market is oversupplied, and daily production continues to reach new highs [5]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region | Spot Price | Change | Main Contract | Futures Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | 0 | 01 Contract | 1687 | 12 | | Shandong Spot | 1680 | -10 | Basis | -7 | -12 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | UR01 | 1687 | 12 | | FOB China | 2810 | | UR05 | 1752 | 8 | | | | | UR09 | 1768 | 5 | [6] Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Production Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a state of tight supply - demand balance, with sentiment fluctuations triggered by news. The price of the lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93,240 - 97,000 yuan/ton. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral, with both positive and negative factors present [8][10][15]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but still higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October 2025 was 23,881 tons, and it is predicted to reach 27,000 tons next month, a 13.06% increase [8][10]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8][10]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 93,461 yuan/ton, a 1.67% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,012 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 94,750 yuan/ton, a 0.24% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 4,604 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Factors**: On December 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,590 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The smelter inventory decreased by 6.81% to 24,324 tons, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory decreased by 5.51% to 41,984 tons, higher than the historical average; other inventories increased by 3.72% to 49,660 tons, higher than the historical average; the total inventory decreased by 2.07% to 115,968 tons, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk was upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main contract was short, with an increase in short positions [12]. - **Positive Factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers have plans to stop or reduce production, and the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile has decreased on a month - on - month basis [13]. - **Negative Factors**: The supply from the ore/salt - lake end remains at a high level, and the decline is limited [14]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other related products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 93,750 yuan/ton to 94,350 yuan/ton, an increase of 600 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and processing costs of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have changed to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production of lithium spodumene increased by 5.14% to 348,500 tons, and the daily production cost increased by 1.67% to 93,461 yuan/ton [20]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production, inventory, and export volume of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and other products have also changed. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.69% to 412,850 tons, and the weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate increased by 1.71% to 104,341 tons [20]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore**: The price, production, and import volume of lithium ore have changed over time. The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium spodumene and lithium mica have shown different trends [25][26]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The operating rate, production, import volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate have been analyzed. The operating rate and production of different sources of lithium carbonate (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycling) have changed, and the import volume from different countries has also fluctuated [31][32][38]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide have been studied. The capacity utilization rate and production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [40][43]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds, such as purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, purchased lithium mica concentrate, and recycled lithium carbonate, have been analyzed. Different production methods and raw materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has been monitored. The inventory of lithium carbonate includes smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and other inventories, and the overall inventory has changed. The inventory of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [53][55]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries have been analyzed. The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated, and the production, shipment, and export volume have changed over time [56][57]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have been studied. The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the production, import - export volume, and supply - demand balance have also shown different trends [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost - profit, production, import - export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have been analyzed. The price and cost - profit of ternary materials have changed, and the production, import - export volume, and inventory have also fluctuated [67][68][70]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium**: The price, production cost, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have been studied. The price and production cost have changed, and the production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [72][74][75]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have been analyzed. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, and the sales penetration rate has also shown different trends [79][80][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9040 - 9250 [3][4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 56815 - 58595 [7]. - The main logics are capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main positive factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the negative factors are the slow post - holiday demand recovery and the strong supply but weak demand of downstream polysilicon [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 91,000 tons, with no change compared to the previous week [3]. - **Demand**: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, while components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a low level, with a production profit of 1190 yuan/ton, a comprehensive开工率 of 74.84% (no change compared to the previous week and higher than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [3]. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2874 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [3]. - **Basis**: On December 1st, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China is 9350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is 205 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase compared to the previous week; the sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [3]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [3]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [3]. 3.2 Daily Views - Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease compared to the previous week. The production schedule for December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease compared to the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer production was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease compared to the previous week, and the inventory was 195,000 tons, a 4.16% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 45.7GW, a 15.94% decrease compared to the previous month. In November, the battery cell production was 55.61GW, a 6.17% decrease. The export factory inventory of battery cells last week was 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in a loss state. The production schedule for December is 48.72GW, a 12.38% decrease. In November, the component production was 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease. The expected component production for December is 39.99GW, a 14.73% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.49% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 12,190 yuan/ton [7]. - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of N - type dense material is 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5355 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase compared to the previous week, and it is at a historical low level [7]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes above the MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [7]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or no change compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.11% - 0.66% [14]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of different types of silicon in East China remain unchanged compared to the previous day [14]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory is 550,000 tons, a 0.36% increase; the weekly sample enterprise inventory is 179,600 tons, a 1.01% increase; the weekly main port inventory is 129,000 tons, with no change [14]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from - 23.53% - 90.27% [14]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly production of sample enterprises remains unchanged, and the capacity utilization rate of different regions also remains unchanged [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The costs and profits of different types of silicon in different regions remain unchanged [14]. 3.4 Polysilicon Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the increase ranging from 0.97% - 2.73% [16]. - **Spot Price**: The prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain unchanged compared to the previous day [16]. - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease; the photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory is 7.63GW, a 36.68% decrease; the component domestic inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the component European inventory is 33.1GW, a 6.50% decrease [16]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts shows different degrees of change, with the change range from 19.92% - 29.82% [16]. - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase; the photovoltaic battery monthly production is 55.61GW, a 6.18% decrease; the component monthly production is 46.9GW, a 2.49% decrease [16]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon - **DMC Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly DMC production is 49,200 tons, a 3.58% increase; the daily capacity utilization rate is 74.84%, with no change [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of Shandong organic silicon DMC remain unchanged [44]. - **Price Trend**: The prices of DMC, 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remain unchanged [14]. - **Import and Export and Inventory**: The monthly DMC export and import volumes and inventory show different trends [49]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Supply and Price**: The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots is 132,800 tons, a 9.93% increase; the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 645,000 tons, a 2.42% decrease. The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21,500 yuan/ton, a 0.70% increase [14]. - **Cost and Profit**: The immediate profit of imported ADC12 is - 360 yuan/ton, a 26.23% decrease [14]. - **Inventory and Production**: The weekly inventory of aluminum alloy ingots is 74,600 tons, a 0.80% decrease. The weekly production and开工率 of primary and recycled aluminum alloys show different trends [52][55]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - **Cost and Price**: The cost and price of polysilicon show different trends [62]. - **Inventory and Production**: The total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, and开工率 show different trends [62]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon shows different situations from October 2024 to October 2025 [65]. - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Photovoltaic Component Trends**: The prices, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic components show different trends [68][71][74]. - **Photovoltaic Accessory Trends**: The prices, production, and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories show different trends [77]. - **Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends**: The cost - profit trends of different components of 210mm double - sided double - glass components show different trends [79]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: The new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and total power generation of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation show different trends [81].

沥青期货早报 2025年12月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131.2万吨，环比增 幅18.2%,同比降幅6.5%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为29.4823%，环比增加 3.056个百分点，全国样本企业出货26.21万吨，环比增加6.74%,样本企业产量为 49.2万吨，环比增加11.56%,样本企业装置检修量预估为86.6万吨，环比减少9.60%, 本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.8%，环比增加0.12个百分点，低于历史平均水 平；建筑沥青开工率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-02燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：由于近期供应充足而交易情绪平淡，同时含硫0.5%船用燃料油现货价差维持在两周来最阔贴水水平， 亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构保持稳定；据市场人士称，亚洲高硫燃料油市场仍面临压力，主要受到套利船货到港充 足以及新加坡地区高库存的拖累；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油338.47美元/吨，基差为-16元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为425.33美元/吨，基差为40元/ 吨，现货偏平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油11月26日当周库存为2059.9万桶，减少285万桶；偏多 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term price of crude oil is mostly affected by geopolitical events. The overnight attack on the Caspian Pipeline in Central Asia and the tense situation between the US and Venezuela support the price. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. The market is also waiting for the US envoy's meeting with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3]. - The short - term negative impacts are exhausted, the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Suggestion - **Fundamentals**: Saudi Energy Minister believes that OPEC+'s new mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity will help stabilize the market. Trump's remarks on closing Venezuela's airspace increase geopolitical uncertainty. The US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal and subsequent European leaders' support for Zelensky add to the geopolitical complexity, overall showing a neutral situation [3]. - **Basis**: On December 1, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.41 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $63.86 per barrel. The basis was 38.94 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). The Cushing area inventory decreased by 6.8 barrels in the week ending November 21 (previous value decreased by 69.8 barrels). As of December 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels, showing a bullish sign [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, showing a bearish sign [3]. - **Main Position**: As of October 14, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts decreased. As of November 25, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, showing a bearish sign [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US President Trump will hold a meeting at the White House on Monday evening to discuss the next step against Venezuela. The US government is increasing pressure on Venezuela, and there are questions about the legality of US military actions in the region [5]. - Kazakhstan protests against Ukraine's recent attacks on the facilities of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. The administrative building and mooring facilities of the consortium were attacked, causing production disruptions [5]. - After the US - Ukraine talks on the peace proposal, European leaders support Zelensky, and the US envoy will meet with Russian President Putin to discuss the peace plan [3][5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Sanctions against Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of crude oil oversupply, and there is a possibility of US - Russia meeting and negotiation [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil increased by $0.79 (1.27%), $0.77 (1.32%), 2.50 yuan (0.55%), and $0.16 (0.25%) respectively [7]. - **Spot Market**: Among the spot prices of various types of crude oil, the prices of WTI crude oil increased by $0.77 (1.32%), while the prices of UK Brent Dtd, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by $0.37 (- 0.57%), $0.21 (- 0.32%), $0.15 (- 0.25%), and $0.02 (- 0.03%) respectively [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21. The EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the week ending November 21 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of October 14, the net long positions decreased by 13,318 [3][17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 25, the net long positions decreased by 57,430 [3][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are still variables in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, and there are rumors of improved Sino - Canadian trade relations recently [9][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range - bound state. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bullish, the inventory situation is bullish, the price on the disk is bearish, the main position is bullish, and the future trend is expected to be in a shock pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short term. The demand is decreasing, and the export of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decrease due to Sino - Canadian trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on global rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of a settlement in the final anti - dumping result of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 21 to December 1, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly. The trading volume of soybean meal varied, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0 [13]. - From November 21 to December 1, the rapeseed meal futures and spot prices fluctuated. The spot price was higher than the futures price, and the premium fluctuated slightly [15]. - From November 20 to December 1, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were mostly 0, with a significant decrease on November 21 [17]. - The import of rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of oil mills' rapeseed and rapeseed meal is at a low level, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains at zero [23][25][27]. - The price of aquatic fish has dropped slightly, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have increased, but the funds have flowed out [9].

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 豆粕早报 2025-12-02 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3020至3080区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆冲高回落，中国大豆供应充裕市场质疑中国采购美豆数量能否达到预期，美 豆短期偏强震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内 豆粕冲高回落，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘 面反弹高度，短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货3020（华东），基差-19，贴水期货。中性 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加27.52 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 近期多空分析 利多： 1.部分装置停车：榆林凯越、新疆新业等。 2.伊朗甲醇开工降低；港口库存处于低位。 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著，整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面，随着久泰甲醇装置重启，后期烯 烃需求预期缩量，产区供需格局预期转弱，西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看，需求端增量逻辑明确：阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启，联泓新建烯烃 ...