大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-17 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1225元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1339元/吨，基差为-114元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存179.75万吨，较前一周减少1.35%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向下；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 一、纯碱期货行情 | 日盘 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc fluctuate and decline, closing with a negative line and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions reduced, with more reduction in long positions. The market may experience short - term consolidation. Technically, the price closed below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but remained in the strong area, while the trend indicator showed that the long - side strength decreased and the short - side strength increased, with the two forces starting to stalemate. The Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is expected to consolidate [2][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Fundamentals - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a shortage of 56500 tons. In April, global zinc plate production was 1072200 tons, and from January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a positive factor [2]. Zinc Basis - The spot price was 22265, and the basis was - 10, indicating a neutral situation [2]. Zinc Inventory - On September 16, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 48975 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 799 tons to 52170 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. Zinc Futures Market Quotes on September 16 - For various delivery months of zinc futures, prices, trading volumes, and open interests showed different changes. For example, for the 2510 contract, the previous settlement was 22305, the opening price was 22290, the highest price was 22370, the lowest price was 22245, the closing price was 22255, the settlement reference price was 22300, the price decreased by 50 ( - 5), the trading volume was 96641 lots, the trading value was 1077732.04, the open interest was 84991 lots, and it decreased by 7012 lots [3]. Domestic Spot Market Quotes on September 16 - Zinc concentrate in Lin had a price of 16850 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; zinc ingot in Aoshi was 22265 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet in China was 4057 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton; galvanized pipe in China was 4452 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22780 yuan/ton, unchanged; zinc powder in Changsha was 27450 yuan/ton, unchanged; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20500 yuan/ton, unchanged; and secondary zinc oxide in Taozhou was 7857 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics in Major National Markets (September 4 - 15, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets increased from 13.85 million tons on September 4 to 14.95 million tons on September 15. Compared with September 8, it increased by 0.97 million tons, and compared with September 11, it increased by 0.55 million tons [5]. Zinc Warehouse Receipt Report on September 16 - The total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange were 52170 tons, with an increase of 799 tons. Most of the increase came from the Guangdong region (specifically, Guangdong Jushen increased by 799 tons) [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution on September 16 - The total LME zinc inventory was 48975 tons, a decrease of 1175 tons from the previous day. In Singapore, the inventory decreased by 1175 tons to 48875 tons [7]. Zinc Concentrate Price Summary in Major National Cities on September 16 - Zinc concentrate with a 50% grade in various regions such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, etc., had prices ranging from 16750 - 16950 yuan/ton, all down 10 yuan/ton [8]. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on September 16 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Sea (22500 yuan/ton), Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry (22830 yuan/ton), etc., showed different levels [12]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 45.97 million tons, the actual production was 47.18 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The production was 2.63% higher than the planned value, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.10%. The planned production in July was 47.03 million tons [14]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on September 16 - Zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions with a 50% grade varied. For example, in Pailie, the lowest was 3800 yuan/metal ton, the highest was 4000 yuan/metal ton, and the average was 3900 yuan/metal ton. Imported zinc concentrate (48% grade) had a processing fee ranging from 85 - 105 US dollars/dry ton [16]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 16 - In the zn2510 contract, for trading volume, Guotai Junan ranked first with 31704 lots and an increase of 602 lots. For long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 5095 lots and an increase of 70 lots. For short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 11007 lots and a decrease of 1082 lots [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: With an expected interest rate cut, it is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged, but in the short - term, there are factors such as high - level shock in the external market, a firm nickel ore price due to Indonesia's sudden mine inspection, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a decline in stainless steel inventory. [2] - **不锈钢**: It is expected to operate in a wide - range fluctuation. The short - term situation is neutral to positive, with a firm nickel ore price, a steady increase in ferronickel price, and a continuous decline in stainless steel inventory. [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On September 16, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,610 yuan, up 30 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of LME nickel was 15,445 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,970 yuan, down 100 yuan. [11] - **Spot Prices**: On September 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,600 yuan, up 600 yuan; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 124,700 yuan, up 550 yuan; the price of 1 imported nickel was 122,800 yuan, up 650 yuan; the price of nickel beans was 124,950 yuan, up 650 yuan. The prices of cold - rolled coils in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged. [11] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,500 tons, of which the futures inventory was 23,529 tons, an increase of 514 tons and 1,815 tons respectively. [13] - **On September 16**: LME nickel inventory was 226,434 tons, an increase of 1,950 tons; Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,167 tons, an increase of 1,208 tons; the total inventory was 252,601 tons, an increase of 3,158 tons. [14] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **As of September 12**: The inventory in Wuxi was 583,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 297,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,012,500 tons, a decrease of 41,100 tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 623,700 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons. [18] - **On September 16**: The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 95,745 tons, a decrease of 604 tons compared with the previous day. [19] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On September 16, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 1.5% was 57 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with a Ni content of 0.9% was 29 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. [22] - **Ferronickel Prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 954 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3,470 yuan per ton, both unchanged from the previous day. [22] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 13,160 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 13,565 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 16,907 yuan. [24] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation The converted import price was 124,377 yuan per ton. [26] 3.7 Factors Affecting Supply and Demand - **Positive Factors**: The demand boost expectation during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, anti - involution policies, and a cost support line at 120,000 yuan. [6] - **Negative Factors**: A significant year - on - year increase in domestic production, no new demand growth points, a long - term oversupply situation, and a year - on - year decline in the loading volume of ternary batteries. [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-17 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差74，升贴水比例4.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，减多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market is awaiting the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher gold and silver prices. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. With the approaching September Fed meeting, gold prices strengthened again before the meeting, and silver prices followed gold prices, with the sentiment remaining strong [4][5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations. Gold prices are difficult to fall, and silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are still risks of increased gains in silver prices due to tariff concerns [9][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, causing gold prices to rise. The US three major stock indexes closed higher, European three major stock indexes mostly rose, US Treasury yields fell, the US dollar index declined, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce. The basis was -3.88, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Gold futures warehouse receipts increased by 2799 kilograms to 52950 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the market awaited the Fed's decision, with Trump continuing to apply pressure, leading to higher silver prices. COMEX silver futures rose 0.84% to $43.19 per ounce. The basis was -25, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts increased by 6382 kilograms to 1246569 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position was long, but the main long positions decreased [5]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, with inflation expectations shifting to economic recession expectations, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. The verification between the expectations and the reality of the US new government's policies will continue, and the sentiment for gold prices is high, remaining prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. There are stronger tariff concerns for silver prices, and there is a risk of increased gains. The global situation is turbulent, with the resurgence of risk - aversion sentiment, the shadow Fed is significant, the expectation of interest rate cuts has risen again, the situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East are tense, inflation has resurfaced, and tariff concerns have an impact [12]. 3. Today's Focus - 07:50: Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor for Economic Affairs at the Reserve Bank of Australia, participates in a fireside chat during the 2025 AFIA Conference in Sydney. - Time TBD: The 2025 Tencent Global Digital Ecosystem Conference, the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference in Ningde, Fujian, and the 2025 BRICS New Industrial Revolution Partnership Forum are held. - 14:00: UK July three - month ILO employment figures and unemployment rate are released. - 14:30: Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwart - Narueput holds a briefing on the economy and monetary policy. - 15:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus presents the economic outlook report for Lithuania. - Time TBD: US President Trump visits the UK, possibly lasting until September 18, accompanied by executives from companies such as Nvidia, OpenAI, and BlackRock. - 16:00: European Central Bank Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva speaks in Madrid, Spain. - 17:00: Germany's September ZEW economic sentiment index is released. - 19:00: The Bank of Spain releases a new economic outlook report. - 20:30: US August retail sales, August import and export price indexes, and Canada's August CPI are released. - Time TBD: The two - day FOMC monetary policy meeting of the Fed begins. - 21:15: US August industrial production data is released. - 22:00: US September NAHB housing market index and July business inventory data are released [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold and Silver Price Movements**: The report shows the price movements of various gold and silver products, including Shanghai gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver futures, SGE gold and silver T + D, London gold and silver spot prices, and the US dollar index [15]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropping 3.64 basis points to 4.034% [4][5][25]. - **ETF Holdings**: SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings continued to decrease but were higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, while Shanghai gold warehouse receipts remained flat. Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly but were higher than the same period last year, and COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase, with renewed tariff concerns [37][39]. 5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 250,048, a decrease of 1,099 (-0.44%) compared to September 14; the short positions were 85,595, an increase of 1,315 (1.56%); the net positions were 164,453, a decrease of 2,414 (-1.45%) [30]. - **Shanghai Silver Top 20 Positions**: As of September 15, 2025, the long positions were 375,292, a decrease of 10,769 (-2.79%) compared to September 12; the short positions were 279,860, a decrease of 5,297 (-1.86%); the net positions were 95,432, a decrease of 5,472 (-5.42%) [31].

CONTENTS 目 录 1 行情回顾 2 逻辑分析 3 4 5 基本面数据 持仓数据 总结 数据来源：wind 大越期货 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 美联储会议临近 金银走强 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 数据来源：wind 大越期货 从2020年至今，沪银日增仓量大于5万手只有45个交易日，大于10万手的增仓交易日只有3天， 9月1日增仓9.2万手； 沪金日增仓量大于2万手只有8个交易日，大于3万手的只有9月1日 -150000 -100000 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 2020-01-02 2021-01-02 2022-01-02 2023-01-02 2024-01-02 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply of live pigs is increasing while demand is weak, leading to a weak and volatile market for live pigs [1]. Summary by Directory Current Pig Farming Overview - Pig inventory has recovered and increased from a low point [8]. - Pig prices have remained at a low level [8]. - The pig farming cycle is in a recession after a period of prosperity [8]. Pig Supply and Demand Fundamental Analysis - Domestic pig inventory is relatively stable [13]. - Domestic pork prices are at a relatively low level [13][26]. - The market is looking forward to the peak demand season during the double festivals [13]. - Imported pork accounts for a very low proportion, with a relatively limited impact [40]. Short - and Medium - Term Weak and Volatile Pig Market - The pig cycle is shortened and lengthened under the influence of information industrialization and industrial informatization [42]. - The formation and influence of capital in the pig farming industry [42]. - The pig - grain ratio and government regulation [42]. - Uncertainties in trade negotiations between China and the US, Canada, etc. [42]. - Changes in domestic demand [42]. Pig Market's Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: cost - end and state reserve support; uncertainties in tariff negotiations between China and the US, Canada, etc. [44]. - Bearish factors: short - term relatively high pig inventory; weak demand growth [44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish, but the inventory is continuously being depleted. With the strengthening of crude oil, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating in the range of 3371 - 3415 [7][9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, positive fundamentals, positive basis, and positive inventory trends. The negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, overall downward demand, strengthened expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States, a downward - sloping MA20 on the disk, and a net short position of the main contract with an increase in short positions [7][9][11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 685,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.44%. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, and the supply pressure is expected to decrease next week [7]. - **Demand**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 28.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the construction rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the construction rate of modified asphalt was 15.8893%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.25 percentage points; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt was 27.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.83 percentage points; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes was 33.93%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected to provide short - term support [8]. - **Basis**: On September 15, the spot price in Shandong was 3520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 127 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 1,225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%; the in - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%; the port - diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. The social and in - plant inventories are continuously being depleted, while the port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the previous day's asphalt market, including futures closing prices, some monthly spreads, spot prices in different regions, downstream demand construction rates, asphalt coking profits, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss volumes, weekly construction rates, and weekly inventories, as well as their changes and percentage changes [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025, which helps to analyze the relationship between the spot and futures prices [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is useful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil crack spreads from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt processing [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative value of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical trend of the Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt price from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the asphalt spot market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is important for analyzing the profit difference between asphalt and coking products [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly asphalt shipments from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the supply - side inventory situation [44][45]. - **Production**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall supply - side production situation [47][48]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw materials on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Construction Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly asphalt construction rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the supply - side production activity [57][58]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The historical trend of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [59][60]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Social and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social and in - plant asphalt inventories from 2022 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the overall inventory situation [66][67]. - **In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of refineries [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation** - The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [72][73]. - The historical trend of the South Korean asphalt import price spread from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is useful for analyzing the competitiveness of imported asphalt [76][77]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand - side situation related to petroleum coke [78][79]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand [81][82]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and the infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which is important for analyzing the impact of policy on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly operating hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the demand for asphalt in the construction machinery field [88][90][91][92]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Construction Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt construction rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand - side activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Construction Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the construction rates of building asphalt, modified asphalt, shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and other types of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [96][97][99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has risen slightly. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the 8665 - 8935 range [6][8]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production is expected to decrease in the short term and recover in the medium term. Demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. The 2511 contract is expected to oscillate in the 52565 - 54525 range [10][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, while organic silicon and aluminum alloy ingot inventories are at high levels [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the sample oxygen - containing 553 production loss is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Other factors: The basis is positive, inventory is negative, the disk is positive, the main position is negative [8]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The September production schedule is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [10]. - Demand: Silicon wafer production and inventory trends vary. Battery cell and component production are showing positive trends, with components currently profitable [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [10]. - Other factors: The basis is negative, inventory is neutral, the disk is positive, the main position is positive [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts have different degrees of increase or decrease, and spot prices of different grades are mostly stable [16]. - Inventories in various regions and ports have increased to varying degrees [16]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have different trends, with some showing increases and others remaining stable [18]. - Inventory and production data of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different changes [18]. 3.3 Price and Trend Charts - Industrial silicon: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and supply - demand balance trends are presented through charts [20][26][27][35][37]. - Polysilicon: The disk price trend, cost trend, supply - demand balance trend, and downstream product price and production trends are presented through charts [23][63][65][69]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年8月份国内沥青总计划排产量为241.3万吨，环比降幅5.1%, 同比增幅17.1%。本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.501%，环比减少0.90个百分点，全 国样本企业出货26.35万吨，环比减少0.11%,样本企业产量为50.9万吨，环比减少2.86%,样 本企业装置检修量预估为68.5万吨，环比增加0.44%,本周炼厂有所减产，降低供应压力。下 周或将减少供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为28.1%，环比减少0.04个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥 青开工率为18.2%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工 ...