Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly Report - Coking Coal and Coke [2] - Report Date: September 26, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For coking coal, the mine inventory is being depleted, and spot transactions have started to see price increases. The coking coal 2601 contract is oscillating [5]. - For coke, the first round of price increase has been proposed, and the coke 2601 contract is oscillating [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Price - Coking coal warehouse receipt price is 1083, Mongolian coal warehouse receipt price is 1192, coke warehouse receipt price is 1620, and the overseas warehouse receipt price of Australian coal is 1599 [10]. 2. Demand, Profit, and开工 - The coking plant's disk profit (01 contract) is 168, a week-on-week increase of 10 [10]. - The full - scale daily coke output is 112.78 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.59 tons [10]. - The hot metal output is 242.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.34 tons and a year - on - year increase of 17.5 tons [10]. - The coal washing plant's output is 27.53 tons (with changes in the coal washing plant sample data), a week - on - week increase of 0.73 tons [10]. 3. Inventory - **Coke Inventory**: The total coke inventory is 920.41 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.23 tons and a year - on - year increase of 96.7 tons. Coking plant coke inventory is 63.04 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.37 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82 tons. Steel mill coke inventory is 661.31 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.64 tons and a year - on - year increase of 100.66 tons. Port inventory is 196.06 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.04 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.86 tons [12]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The total coking coal inventory is 2060.63 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.69 tons and a year - on - year increase of 81.15 tons. Coking plant coking coal inventory is 999.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58.66 tons and a year - on - year increase of 58.99 tons. Steel mill coking coal inventory is 796.07 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.73 tons and a year - on - year increase of 71.31 tons. Port inventory is 265.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16.7 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 133.54 tons. Coal washing plant inventory is 310.73 tons (with data sample changes), a week - on - week increase of 6.36 tons [14]. 4. Import and Export - From January to July, the imported coking coal was 62.44 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. From January to July, the exported coke was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.02% [17].

Report Title - Black Series Weekly Report - Iron Ore, dated September 26, 2025 [2] Report Author - Researcher: Li Haixiao, Trading Consultation: Z0019568; Reviewer: Tang Yun, Z0002422 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Iron ore fundamentals are still supported as hot metal production increased month - on - month, and both port and steel mill inventories increased month - on - month. The Iron Ore 2601 contract will fluctuate [5] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Spread Price - Multiple price charts are presented for different iron ore products and related indexes from 2016 - 2025, including iron ore index, lowest delivery product discounted to the futures price, various Platts indexes, and prices of different grades of iron ore in Qingdao Port, Hebei, and other regions [11][15][17] Spread - Multiple spread charts are presented, including spreads between different iron ore futures contracts (1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1), high - medium - low grade price spreads, pellet and lump ore premiums, and basis rates and bases of different futures contracts. Also included are the profit margins of hot - rolled coil index, various steel products in different regions, and the price difference between scrap steel and hot metal in North and East China [29][39][40] 2. Supply - From January to August, the cumulative production of domestic raw ore was 67,810.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2%. In August, China imported 10,522 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%; from January to August, the cumulative import was 80,162 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.64%. From September 15th to 21st, 2025, the total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 27.728 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05 billion tons [7] - Various supply - related charts are presented, including monthly and cumulative imports of iron ore, weekly shipments from Australia and Brazil and their respective ports to China, weekly arrivals at domestic ports, shipping indexes (BDI, BCI), freight rates, and the capacity utilization rate and daily output of domestic mines [63][70][77] 3. Demand - Hot metal production increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 175,000 tons. Mysteel's statistics showed that the average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports was 3.364 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,700 tons [7] - Multiple demand - related charts are presented, including the monthly cumulative and monthly production of pig iron, average daily port clearance volume of 45 ports, average daily hot metal production of 247 steel mills, replenishment intensity, blast furnace capacity utilization rate and operating rate of 247 steel mills, daily consumption of domestic and imported powder ore of 64 steel mills, and various ore blending ratios [86][91][95] 4. Inventory - The inventory of 45 ports was 140.0028 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.992 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5264 million tons. The steel mill inventory was 97.3635 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2696 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2687 million tons, and the inventory days were 32.53 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.24 days [7] - Multiple inventory - related charts are presented, including the total inventory of 45 ports, trade ore inventory, non - Australia and Brazil ore inventory, inventory of different types of ore (Australian, Brazilian, coarse powder, lump ore, iron concentrate, pellet ore), inventory of imported ore of 247 steel mills, inventory days, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio and inventory of imported and domestic powder ore of 64 steel mills, as well as the iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines [108][116][123]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The overall change in the supply - side devices is small, and the comprehensive supply remains at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, with appropriate restocking before the festival, and the alkali plant's pending orders have slightly increased. This week, the alkali plant's shipments were good, and the inventory fluctuated downward. The futures market is still in a situation of game between reality and expectation and has entered a volatile pattern. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include stable downstream start - up and cost support; negative factors include relatively high comprehensive supply and high inventory in the entire industry [7] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Basic Points of Soda Ash - **Latest View**: The supply - side devices have little change, and the comprehensive supply is high. Downstream demand is stable, with pre - festival restocking. Alkali plant's pending orders slightly increase. Shipments are good, inventory decreases, and the futures market is volatile due to the game between reality and expectation [7] - **Positive Factors**: Stable downstream start - up and cost support from stable raw salt and rising coal prices [7] - **Negative Factors**: Relatively high comprehensive supply and high inventory in the whole industry [7] 3.2. Supply, Demand, Inventory - **Supply**: This week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from last week. The domestic soda ash output was 77.69 tons, a 3.12 - ton (4.19%) increase from last week [9] - **Demand**: During the week, the pending orders of soda ash enterprises had little change, remaining at more than 12 days [9] - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 165.15 tons, a 10.41 - ton (5.93%) decrease from last Thursday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 72.91 tons, a 2.04 - ton decrease, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 92.24 tons, an 8.37 - ton decrease [9] 3.3. Price, Cost, Profit - **Price**: This week, the price of light soda ash in North China was 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash was 1300 yuan/ton [9] - **Profit**: This week, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 77.50 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease from last week; the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process was - 37.20 yuan/ton, a 0.45 - yuan decrease from last week [9]

Group 1: Core Views - Palm oil in the international market: After continuous rebounds, Malaysia's BMD crude palm oil futures may face resistance around 4,450 ringgit. With potential downward pressure, there's a risk of seeking support at 4,300 ringgit. After a second - round adjustment and stabilization, there's a chance of a rebound, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong view [3]. - Palm oil in the domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rose and then fell, facing resistance at the 40 - day moving average of 9,350 yuan. There's a risk of a decline, potentially following Malaysia's palm oil and retesting the 8,800 - 9,000 yuan range. Watch for the possibility of breaking through 9,350 yuan and beware of post - National Day holiday decline risks [3]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybeans and soy oil are in narrow - range oscillations, and BMD palm oil is also slightly fluctuating. Affected by uncertain Sino - US trade relations, funds are likely to withdraw before the holiday. Spot备货 is mostly finished, and the market will enter the holiday mode. Domestic soybean oil futures will maintain a range - bound trend, with the January contract supported at 8,000 yuan [4]. - Bean meal: Argentina's completed export quota eases its impact on the domestic market. Weak reality and risk - aversion sentiment pressure the market. Before the holiday, Dalian bean meal will oscillate around 2,950 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,900 to 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9,236 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 9,052 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,406 ringgit/ton with a - 0.74% decrease; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,190 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [7]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,162 yuan/ton with a - 1.01% decrease; Soybean oil 05 is at 7,926 yuan/ton with a - 0.4% decrease; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,858 yuan/ton with a - 0.42% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.2 cents/pound with a 0.86% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,380 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [13]. Oil Spread Data - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 376 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 262 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase; Y 9 - 1 is - 326 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease [5]. - Other spreads: Y - P 01 is - 1,030 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease; Y - P 05 is - 1,100 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease; Y - P 09 is - 802 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan decrease; Y/M 01 is 2.761 with a - 0.13% decrease; Y/M 05 is 2.8711 with a 0.52% increase; Y/M 09 is 2.7408 with a 0.61% increase; OI 1 - 5 is 484 yuan/ton with no change; OI 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase; OI 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan decrease; OI/RM 01 is 4.1498 with a 0.18% increase; OI/RM 05 is 4.1221 with a 1.3% increase; OI/RM 09 is 3.9513 with a 1.32% increase [5]. Meal Price and Spread Data - Meal prices: Bean meal 01 is at 2,937 with a - 30 decrease and - 1.01% decrease; Bean meal 05 is at 2,751 with an - 11 decrease and - 0.4% decrease; Bean meal 09 is at 2,858 with a - 12 decrease and - 0.42% decrease; Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,405 with a - 39 decrease and - 1.6% decrease; Rapeseed meal 05 is at 2,327 with a - 16 decrease and - 0.68% decrease; Rapeseed meal 09 is at 2,407 with a - 14 decrease and - 0.58% decrease; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,012 with no change; The offshore RMB is at 7.1443 with a 0.0063 increase and 0.09% increase [17]. - Meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 205 with a 24 - yuan increase; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a - 1 decrease; M09 - 01 is - 97 with a - 23 decrease; RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 25 - yuan increase; RM05 - 09 is - 78 with a 1 - yuan increase; RM09 - 01 is - 23 with a - 26 decrease [18][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Affected by the divergence in Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings, the medium - to long - term outlook for gold is supported by the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and declining real interest rates [3]. - **Copper**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident exceeded expectations, causing short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Aluminum**: After the September interest rate cut, the macro - driving force subsided. The trading of Shanghai aluminum may focus on fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. In the short term, zinc prices will likely move in a range, and the current trading strategy is mainly based on the long - domestic and short - overseas logic [67]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Tin**: With the Fed's interest rate decision settled, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Silicon**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influence Factors**: Fed policy expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in gold ETF holdings affect gold prices. The upward revision of the US Q2 GDP restrains short - term interest rate cut expectations, while geopolitical risks and increased domestic gold ETF holdings provide support [3]. - **Price Charts**: Include SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and US Treasury real interest rates [4][9]. Copper - **Market Situation**: The impact of the Freeport copper mine incident was longer than expected, leading to short - term over - appreciation of copper prices [19]. - **Price Data**: Spot and futures prices showed different changes. For example, Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper decreased by 0.02%, while Guangdong Southern Storage increased by 0.22%. In the futures market, the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.29% [22][23]. - **Inventory and Import Data**: Copper inventories in various regions changed, and copper imports showed a significant increase in losses [34][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest rate cut, the focus shifted to fundamentals, and short - term prices may fluctuate with a slight upward trend [37]. - **Alumina**: The contradiction in bauxite lies in the tight domestic supply and low shipments from Guinea, while the inventory is at a high level. Alumina supply is in surplus, and short - term prices are likely to be weak [38]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: After the macro - driving force subsided, the market focused on fundamentals. With mixed long and short factors, short - term prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [39]. - **Price and Spread Data**: Provided prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, as well as various spreads and basis data [40][44][52]. - **Inventory Data**: Aluminum and alumina inventories in different regions changed, and the impact on prices needs to be monitored [61]. Zinc - **Market Situation**: The supply side is in a surplus state, and the demand side shows no signs of a peak season. LME inventories are decreasing, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Short - term prices are likely to move in a range [67]. - **Price Data**: Zinc futures and spot prices showed different changes, and various spreads and basis data were provided [68][73]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventories changed, and the impact on prices needs to be observed [78]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Concerns about the stability of nickel ore supply have increased, and prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to rise. Nickel iron prices are restricted by stainless steel demand, and stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [82]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel, as well as inventory data [83]. Tin - **Market Situation**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the macro impact on tin prices has diminished. In the short term, due to tight supply and weak demand, tin prices are likely to move in a range [97]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided tin futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [98][104]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: As the National Day approaches, the market's expectation of a shutdown on September 30 has decreased significantly. Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate [108]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, as well as inventory data [109][111][115]. Silicon - **Market Situation**: Before the National Day, the willingness to stock up has declined. The industrial silicon market will continue the pattern of "strong expectation, weak reality." Polysilicon prices fluctuate sharply, and investors are advised to be cautious [117]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: Provided prices of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and other products, as well as inventory data [118][119][146].

Introduction - The report is a soft commodity daily report dated September 26, 2025, covering sugar, cotton, apple, and jujube markets [1] Sugar Market Market Overview - Spot sugar prices are stable, with Guangxi at 5750 - 5860 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 5680 - 5730 yuan/ton, and processed sugar at 5860 - 6050 yuan/ton [3] - The amount of sugar awaiting shipment at Brazilian ports has dropped to 3.1 million tons, and raw sugar is weakly fluctuating around 16 cents [3] Fundamental Analysis - Domestic processed sugar inventory has increased, and supply pressure is significant at the end of the crushing season. The impact of a typhoon in Guangxi on sugarcane lodging is yet to be estimated [3] - Record - high imports in August and the start of beet sugar production have strengthened the supply - side situation. Cost support coexists with supply pressure, and the fundamentals remain weak [3] Price and Spread Analysis - Sugar futures prices show various daily and weekly changes. For example, SR01 closed at 5478 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13% and a weekly increase of 0.31% [4] - Sugar basis shows different values and changes. For instance, the basis of Nanning - SR01 on September 25 was 295 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 71 yuan/ton [12] - Sugar import prices and related spreads also have specific changes. Brazilian import prices have quota - in and quota - out prices with corresponding daily and weekly fluctuations [15] Cotton Market Market Overview - Current old - cotton inventory is low, supporting cotton prices. However, downstream spinning profits are poor, and the acceptance of high - priced cotton is limited [17] - New - season Xinjiang cotton is expected to have a good harvest. Local seed - cotton purchase prices have weakened with the futures market, and there is significant hedging pressure before new - cotton listing [17] Price and Spread Analysis - Cotton and cotton yarn futures prices have declined. For example, cotton 01 closed at 13405 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.92% [18] - Cotton spreads show various values and changes. The cotton basis was 1638 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 85 yuan/ton [19] Apple Market Market Overview - Western early Fuji apples are mostly harvested. The price of early - picked Fuji is higher than last year, and the remaining inventory of stored Fuji has poor quality and limited sales speed [22] - New - season western late Fuji's bag - removing time is delayed by about 10 days due to rainy weather, expected to start after September 25 [22] - The number of trucks arriving at sales areas has slightly increased, with general sales. Good - quality apples sell better, and there is a slight backlog in transit warehouses [22] Inventory and Price Analysis - As of September 24, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 41,400 tons from last week [22] - Apple futures prices have different daily and weekly changes. For example, AP01 closed at 8401 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.53% and a weekly increase of 1.55% [23] Jujube Market Market Overview - On the basis of last year's bumper harvest, the new - season grey jujube production may decline significantly year - on - year, but the decline compared to normal years is relatively small [29] - Although the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, downstream trading is general. With good weather in the producing areas and high old - jujube inventory, jujubes may face downward pressure [29] Price and Spread Analysis - Jujube futures spreads show different trends over time, such as the 01 - 05 spread with specific historical data [30]

交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 黑色建材周报—玻璃 1 基本面要点 2 浮法玻璃 3 光伏玻璃 4 宏观数据 2025年09月26日 研究员：岳晋琛 交易咨询：Z0017963 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 http://www.eafutures .com 【免责声明】本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所 载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不 一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交 易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承 担任何法律责任。本 他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不 得对本报告进行任何有悖原意的引用 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, Maersk significantly increased the spot freight rates for the second half of October, indicating that shipping companies are starting to support prices for the upcoming peak season. Currently, the overall cargo volume on the European route is weak, and there was some control over shipping capacity in the first half of October due to holidays. Future attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - support measures and the market's expectations for the peak season in December [7]. - Bullish factors include the complex situation in the Middle East, which makes short - term navigation in the Red Sea unlikely, and some shipping companies starting to support freight rates for the second half of October [7]. - Bearish factors are that the deployed shipping capacity on the European route is currently relatively high, and the cargo volume remains at the off - season level. The cargo volume in the second half of October may fall short of expectations [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Fundamental Points - **Latest View**: Maersk's rate hike shows shipping companies' price - support for the peak season. Current European route cargo is weak, with capacity control in early October. Monitor price - support implementation and December peak - season expectations [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Complex Middle East situation affecting Red Sea navigation and some shipping companies' price - support for late October [7]. - **Negative Factors**: High deployed capacity on the European route and low off - season cargo volume, with potential under - performance in late October [7]. - **Price Data**: SCFIS European route on Monday was 1,254.92 (1,440.24) points, down 12.87% month - on - month; SCFIS US West route was 1,193.64 (1,349.84) points, down 11.57% month - on - month. On Friday, SCFI composite index was 1,114.52 (1,198.21), down 6.98% month - on - month, with SCFI European route at 971 (1052) dollars/TEU, down 7.70% month - on - month, and SCFI US West route at 1460 (1636) dollars/FEU, down 10.76% month - on - month [9]. - **Supply Data**: As of Friday, there were 7,414 (7,402) global container ships with a total capacity of 33,101,322 (33,055,884) TEU, up 0.14% from last Friday. In early September, idle capacity was about 486,400 TEU, with an idle capacity ratio of 1.47%. In August, the global main - route comprehensive punctuality rate was 44.21 (45.06)%, arrival and departure service punctuality rate was 40.24 (42.23)%, and pick - up and delivery service punctuality rate was 48.17 (47.89)% [9]. - **Demand Data**: In August, China's export value was 321.81 (321.784) billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, exports to the US were 31.60404 (35.82748) billion dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 33.12%, and exports to the EU were 51.68954 (50.00028) billion dollars, a year - on - year increase of 10.38% [10]. 3.2 Container Transport Prices - **SCFIS**: European route decreased by 12.87% month - on - month on Monday; US West route decreased by 11.57% month - on - month [9]. - **SCFI**: Composite index decreased by 6.98% month - on - month on Friday, with European route down 7.70% and US West route down 10.76% month - on - month [9]. - **Other Prices**: International container charter price index and global container ship average revenue data are presented in graphs, showing historical trends and monthly changes [23]. 3.3 Container Transport Supply - **Global Container Ship Capacity**: As of Friday, there were 7,414 ships with a total capacity of 33,101,322 TEU, up 0.14% from last Friday. Historical capacity data (ships and TEU) are shown in a graph [9][27]. - **Idle Capacity**: In early September, idle capacity was about 486,400 TEU, with a ratio of 1.47%. Historical idle capacity and its proportion are presented in a graph [9][33]. - **Ship Delivery and Orders**: Data on global container ship deliveries (ships and TEU) and new - signed container ship orders (TEU) are shown in graphs [35]. - **China's Container - Related Equipment Exports**: Data on China's container ship and container exports, including monthly values and cumulative year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [38]. - **Shipping Punctuality Rates**: Global main - route comprehensive punctuality rate, arrival and departure service punctuality rate, and pick - up and delivery service punctuality rate data are provided, along with historical trends. Punctuality rates of global liner companies, alliances, and major ports are also presented in graphs [40][45][48]. - **Ship Fuel Prices**: Graphs show the price differences between high - sulfur and low - sulfur marine fuels in Singapore and Rotterdam [54]. 3.4 Container Transport Demand - **PMI Data**: China's manufacturing PMI and new export order PMI data, along with a comparison of China, the US, and the EU's PMI, are presented in graphs [58]. - **Foreign Demand**: Data on US commercial inventory changes and EU 27 retail sales changes, including monthly and year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [60]. - **Import and Export Data**: China's customs import and export values and their year - on - year changes, as well as seasonal data on China's exports to the US and the EU, are presented in graphs [63][65]. - **Cargo Volume**: Seasonal data on European and US route cargo volumes are presented in graphs [68]. - **Port Throughput**: National port container throughput data and monthly changes, as well as Shanghai Port's container throughput and its year - on - year changes, are presented in graphs [70][73]. - **Exchange Rates**: Graphs show the spot exchange rates of the US dollar and the euro against the Chinese yuan [75].

Core View - Bullish factors: Increased disturbances at the mine end, strong price - holding mentality of Philippine mines, rising supply costs; Slight improvement in demand, with the enhanced demand in September driving supply - demand correction [3] - Bearish factors: Decline in macro - expectations, overall weakness in the metal sector after the Fed's interest rate cut; Continuous accumulation of LME nickel inventory, increasing surplus pressure on refined nickel [3] - Trading advice: Focus on short - term range trading and avoid heavy - position operations [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - **Price changes**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai nickel was 122,990 yuan/ton, up 1,590 yuan or 1.31% week - on - week; the closing price of LME nickel 3M was 15,435 dollars/ton, up 100 dollars or 0.97% week - on - week. The prices of other nickel contracts also showed varying degrees of increase [4] - **Position and volume**: The position volume was 99,642 lots, up 54,574 lots or 121.1% week - on - week; the trading volume was 177,030 lots, up 110,931 lots or 167.83% week - on - week [4] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 25,105 tons, down 738 tons or 2.86% week - on - week [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was - 505 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 4.72% week - on - week [4] Stainless Steel Futures - **Price changes**: The closing price of the main contract of stainless steel was 12,930 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 20 yuan or 0%. The prices of other stainless steel contracts showed slight increases [4] - **Position and volume**: The position volume was 109,896 lots, down 20,121 lots or 15.48% week - on - week; the trading volume was 129,897 lots, down 8,718 lots or 6.29% week - on - week [4] - **Warehouse receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 87,803 tons, down 1,929 tons or 2.15% week - on - week [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the main contract was 640 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 9.86% week - on - week [4] Spot Nickel - **Price changes**: The price of Jinchuan nickel was 125,200 yuan/ton, up 1,550 yuan or 1.25%; the price of imported nickel was 123,225 yuan/ton, up 1,625 yuan or 1.34%; the price of 1 electrolytic nickel was 124,050 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.31%; the price of nickel beans was 125,350 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.29%; the price of electrodeposited nickel was 122,950 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan or 1.32% [4] Inventory - **Domestic social inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel was 41,484 tons, up 429 tons compared with the previous period [4] - **LME nickel inventory**: The LME nickel inventory was 230,586 tons, unchanged from the previous period [6] - **Stainless steel social inventory**: The stainless steel social inventory was 909 tons, up 11.8 tons [6] - **Nickel pig iron inventory**: The nickel pig iron inventory was 28,652 tons, down 614.5 tons [6] Data Graphs - **Nickel futures**: Include the closing price trends of Shanghai nickel futures main contract and LME nickel (3 - month) [7][8] - **Stainless steel futures**: Show the closing price trend of stainless steel futures main contract [9][10] - **Spot nickel**: Present the average price of nickel spot [11][12] - **Primary nickel supply and inventory**: Cover China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality, total primary nickel monthly supply including imports seasonality, domestic social inventory of nickel plates and nickel beans seasonality, LME nickel inventory seasonality, etc. [13][14][15] - **Nickel ore and nickel pig iron**: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality, China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex - factory price national average, Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) average price, etc. [16][17] - **Nickel iron production**: Show China's and Indonesia's nickel iron monthly production seasonality [18][20] - **Downstream nickel sulfate**: Include the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate, the seasonality of the profit rate of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the seasonality of the profit of producing electrodeposited nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China, etc. [22][24] - **Stainless steel**: Include the seasonality of China's 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coil profit rate, stainless steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless steel inventory seasonality [28][29][31]

贵金属期货 周报—2025-9-26 1、黄金AU 观点： 在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升。 基本面： 1、美国对进口医疗器械、工业机械等发起232条款调查。2、特朗普取消与民主党有关临时拨款法案的会晤计划，称会晤不可能有成果。 3、美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修至增长3.8%，前值为3.3%；9月20日当周初请失业金人数录得21.8万人，为2025年7月19日当周以来新低， 前值由23.1万人修正为23.2万人。4、欧洲央行行长拉加德：欧洲央行已经达到了通胀目标，但不确定性依然存在；管委Scicluna：当前利 率水平适宜，央行有能力应对下行风险；管委斯图纳拉斯：无需进一步宽松。 2、白银AG 观点：在贸易战重启背景下经济衰退问题制约金银饰品 消费需求；贵金属的需求在于去美元背景下的主权基金选择；在美国重启降息 之际，美元中期贬值因素和近端收益率曲线下沉对贵金属形成支撑；跟踪到国内黄金仓单有相对显著的上升。 基本面： 1、美国对进口医 ...