热点报告——外汇期货 美国一季度 GDP 增速转负， 关税加大经济波动 | 走势评级： | 美元：震荡 | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 5 月 1 日 | ★美国一季度 GDP 增速转负，关税加大经济波动： 外 汇 美国一季度 GDP 年化季环比初值录得-0.3%，低于市场预期的 0.3%，较上季度的 2.4%大幅回落，为 2022 年一季度以来首次转负。 其中净出口拖累经济增速 4.83%，其中进口分项拖累 5.03%。个人 消费支出增速 1.8%，政府支出增速-1.4%，私人投资增速高达 21.9%，进口增速 41.3%。一季度核心 PCE 物价指数则由 2.6%大幅 反弹至 3.5%，高于市场预期。数据公布后，美元指数震荡回升， 美债收益率小幅上行，黄金冲高回落，美股低开高走。从对 GDP 增速的贡献度来看，消费、固定投资、库存、净出口和政府支出 分别对-0.3%的 GDP 拉动 1.21%、1.34%、2.25%、-4.83%和-0.25%。 货 总体而言，关税冲击加大经济波动，企业抢先囤货导致进口分项 激增拖累经济增速，转化为库存投资和设备投资，随着关税政策 的实施 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国 API 原油库存上升，西南市场炼焦煤暂 稳运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-30 晨 美国 3 月商品贸易逆差 1620 亿美元 报 关税压力再度缓和，提振市场情绪，三大股指低开高走录得上 涨。 黑色金属（焦煤/焦炭） 西南市场炼焦煤暂稳运行 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普颁令防止汽车关税重复叠加 美国财长最新表态自特朗普宣布前任何贸易协议不算做完成。 因此贸易协议的达成进一步困难，美元指数转向震荡。 宏观策略（黄金） 特朗普：将在未来几周和几个月内通过减税法案 综 金价震荡收跌，围绕 3300 美金关口运行，亚洲时段表现继续偏 弱，国内五一假期前多头继续减仓获利了结。美国经济数据显 示在关税落地前抢进口推动美国 3 月贸易逆差大增。 合 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 巴西 Unica 即将公布 4 月上半月的压榨生产数据，目前市场预期 4 月上半月巴西中南部产糖 69.4 万吨，同比下降 3.8%；糖厂用 蔗制糖比 44.48%，高于 44.08% 短期补库和情绪支撑震荡运行或持稳运行，中长期维持偏空看 待。 能源化工（原油） 美国 API 原油库存 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 德克萨斯制造业指标大幅下滑，七地锌锭库 存增加 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-29 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 德克萨斯制造业指标大幅下滑 美国德克萨斯制造业指标大幅度下滑，美国经济下行压力延续， 美元指数震荡走弱。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 2790 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 4 月末 5 月中上旬，国债期货表现应强于 4 月中下旬。近期逢回 调买入的策略性价比上升。 综 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 合 上海重大工程建设按下加速键 晨 报 钢价早盘回落，延续震荡格局，市场对于行政性减产的情绪区 域理性和谨慎。虽然控产政策大概率推出，但具体执行细节和 监管才是市场更为关心的内容，预计短期钢价震荡运行。 有色金属（锌） 七地锌锭库存增加 0.01 万吨 中期供需趋松未发生逆转，维持逢高沽空逻辑为主，国内制造 业 PMI 或受关税影响拖累，高波动下注意控制仓位。 能源化工（原油） 印度提高了 4 月 ESPO 采购量 油价震荡下跌，市场等待 OPEC+政策进一步明确。 | 王心彤 | 资深分析师 | （黑色金属） | | --- | --- | --- ...

调研报告-PTA 华东聚酯产业链下游 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | | PTA: | | 震荡 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 4 | 月 | 28 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★终端五月压力仍存，开工率可能继续向下调整 目前前往美国的的织造订单基本全停，已生产但未发出的货物都 积压在生产企业和贸易商的仓库里。面对关税的冲击，有渠道的 企业尝试拓展其他国家的市场或者转为内销。部分企业找海外代 加工渠道，但能转移的订单量有限。产成品积累的情况下，加弹 厂和织造厂五一期间基本都有 3-7 天放假计划。五月内销也是步入 淡季，内外销综合压力下，五月织造产业可能面临进一步挑战。 能 ★下游阶段性采购下，化纤厂库存高位有所去化 源 化 工 织造企业普遍认为当下原料价格已经是低位，四月底可以看到化 纤厂产销阶段性有明显放量，库存高位去化，聚酯降负预期有所 改善。但本轮补货更多是绝对价格偏低刺激下游刚需补货，如果 终端织造五月负荷继续下调，两环节的矛盾可能会进一步积累。 ★关税博弈可能 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 抢装潮透支需求，光伏玻璃价格承压运行 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 4 月 28 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/25 当周）： 化 工 上周国内光伏玻璃行业走货仍偏慢，临近月末订单交付基本接近 尾声，终端抢装潮退坡趋势明显。虽然五一小长假临近，但下游 备货意愿不高，仍以刚需拿货为主。预计随着抢装窗口关闭，组 件市场将进入加速调整期，5 月排产或面临下调压力。 上周行业库存继续增加，主要是下游需求退坡趋势明显，且组件 厂家仍有一定量光伏玻璃库存，导致拿货积极性不高。 ★ 供需分析： 近期光伏玻璃产能大量投放带来的供给过剩压力将持续压制价 格，短期内产业链仍面临抢装潮透支需求带来的后续压力。预计 本周行业将再度开启议价阶段，价格趋势大致持稳。 ★ 风险提示： 组件厂家上调开工率。 | 曹璐 | 资深分析师(化工) | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F3013434 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0013049 | | Tel: | 8621-63325888-3521 | | Email: | lu.cao@orientfutures ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rapeseed oil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market is sufficient, but the supply in the far - month is pessimistic due to factors such as low arrivals of Canadian rapeseed, low old - crop stocks of Russian rapeseed, difficulty in large - scale procurement of Australian rapeseed in the short term, inability to import Canadian rapeseed oil, and reserve rotation in the second half of the year. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is extremely scarce at present but is expected to improve significantly after May [3]. - The total demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Household consumption is relatively rigid, but catering consumption is poor. Rapeseed oil has a substitution phenomenon in blended oil due to its poor cost - performance. Future demand for rapeseed oil is difficult to increase significantly, with limited increments concentrated in seasonings and hot - pot bases [3]. - The market is generally optimistic about the basis of 09 rapeseed oil. The main logic is that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts far - month rapeseed procurement, and the amount of rapeseed oil that can be supplied to China before the harvest of Russian new crops is limited. The unilateral trend of the futures price depends on market sentiment and policies, and rapeseed oil is preferably used as a long position in oil arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - After China launched an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in September 2024 and imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in March 2025, the market's attention to rapeseed oil has increased. The uncertain result of the anti - dumping investigation restricts enterprises' willingness to purchase far - month rapeseed, and future rapeseed arrivals will decline significantly. To understand the downstream consumption, the views and procurement of oil mills and traders on far - month rapeseed oil, and the international supply of rapeseed oil, the research team visited the Sichuan - Chongqing region [11]. 3.2 Research Summary - **Supply**: The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is sufficient, but the far - month arrivals of Canadian rapeseed will decrease. Russian rapeseed stocks are low, and the monthly import volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China may drop to 50,000 - 60,000 tons in the next few months. Dubai's supply is stable with little increment, and Australian rapeseed is difficult to make up for the gap. In addition, the Sichuan - Chongqing region needs to rotate in rapeseed oil reserves in the second half of the year [16]. - **Demand**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Catering demand is poor due to the high cost - performance of soybean oil, while household demand is rigid. The demand is mainly stock - based, with limited increments in seasonings and hot - pot bases. The market expects rapeseed oil to start destocking in June. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce but is expected to improve after May [17]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market is optimistic about the basis of domestic 09 rapeseed oil due to supply concerns. The price trend of rapeseed oil depends on the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The market's acceptance of rapeseed oil prices is increasing, and demand is not completely suppressed by price. After September, the supply may improve, but import policies are still crucial. The price of soybean oil is expected to decline slightly after May. Strategies such as widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and soybean oil and palm oil can be considered [19]. 3.4 Research Content - **April 22, morning, Trader A in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 230,000 tons, and destocking is expected to start in June - July. The company mainly purchases from the East, South, and Hainan regions. It currently buys Dubai rapeseed oil at 6,000 tons per month. The far - month rapeseed purchase is restricted, and the company is optimistic about the price of rapeseed oil [20][21][23]. - **April 22, morning, Trader B in Chengdu**: The company's annual trade volume of oil and meal is about 300,000 tons. It is optimistic about the improvement of the soybean meal market after May Day. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 265,000 tons, and the company mainly purchases from Guangxi [26][27][30]. - **April 22, afternoon, Trader C in Chengdu**: The company's annual feed output is nearly 800,000 tons. The supply of rapeseed meal is poor, and the company has adjusted the formula. The company believes that rapeseed meal may have a correction opportunity. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is under pressure in March - May, and destocking is expected to start in June. The import of Russian rapeseed oil may be 40,000 - 60,000 tons per month from April to August [32][33][38]. - **April 23, morning, Trader D in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 700,000 tons per year and is decreasing. The company is optimistic about the 9 - month basis of rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region and believes that the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will face pressure after rising to 1,700 - 2,200 yuan [37][40][43]. - **April 23, afternoon, Oil Mill E in Chengdu**: The company mainly processes domestic rapeseed and corn germ. The output of domestic rapeseed has increased this year, but the quality is average. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 100,000 tons, and the demand is generally declining [44][45][46]. - **April 24, morning, Oil Mill F in Deyang**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 500,000 tons. The company believes that the supply of far - month rapeseed oil is scarce and is gradually purchasing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the 09 basis [47][48][50]. - **April 25, morning, Oil Mill G in Chongqing**: The company mainly refines and packages rapeseed oil. The annual trade volume is about 150,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 700,000 - 800,000 tons per year. The company's Chongqing rapeseed oil inventory is about several thousand tons, and destocking may start in June [51][53][54]. - **April 25, afternoon, Oil Mill H in Chongqing**: The company's planned annual trade volume of oil this year is 300,000 tons. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce, and the company is preparing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the future supply of soybean oil and the basis of rapeseed oil if the anti - dumping investigation continues [56][57][59].

日度报告——综合晨报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，豆油厂 开机小幅上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美官员：美乌矿产协议即将完成 最新消息美乌之间的矿产协议即将达成，这可能表明距离俄乌 协议进了一步，但是不确定性继续存在。 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金投机净多仓增加 油厂开机小幅上升 上周国内进口大豆成本增加，盘面榨利转差。供需错配下豆粕 现货市场短期仍较为紧张，但上周五现货已经有所回落，豆粕 5 月期价也大幅下挫，后期供需面将趋于改善。 有色金属（铜） 五矿资源一季度铜总产量同比增长 76% 短期宏观因素对铜价限制减弱，且基本面阶段支撑相对较强， 预计铜价短期或震荡偏强运行，策略角度继续关注逢低做多机 会。 能源化工（原油） 尼日利亚一大型汽油制造装置进行维修 综 周五金价震荡收跌一度跌破 3300 美金，表现偏弱，在贸易问题 没有进一步升级以及美国资产企稳回升后，短期资金获利了结。 美联储金融稳定性报告显示关税是当前最大风险。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 政治局会议：适时降准降息 报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，总体来看，政策保持了定 力 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating for lithium carbonate: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated downward, with multiple lithium salt contracts and spot prices showing declines. Although some salt factories plan to reduce production and overseas producers may adjust pricing and shipping, the demand lacks unexpected performance, and the Chinese market for lithium carbonate will still accumulate inventory from April to May. Given the high channel inventory and uncertain supply - side drivers, the price is likely to be weak in the second quarter. A bearish approach is recommended, and short - selling on rebounds has higher certainty [2][3][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Salt - end reduction has limited support, and the market has fallen below the 70,000 - yuan mark again - From April 21 - 25, lithium salt prices declined. For example, the closing price of LC2505 decreased by 2.8% to 68,400 yuan/ton, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices dropped by 2.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide also slightly decreased. The market fell below 70,000 yuan at the beginning of the week and remained at a low level. Despite salt - end production reduction plans and potential overseas adjustments, the demand is flat, and inventory will still accumulate. A bearish strategy is recommended for the second quarter [11][12] 2. Weekly industry news review - CATL launched the sodium - ion battery brand "Naxin", and its first product will be mass - produced in June [15] - In March 2025, China imported 534,500 physical tons of spodumene, a 6% decrease from February. Imports from different countries showed different trends [15] - The Weilasituo Lithium Polymetallic Mine in Chifeng obtained a mining license. It has large reserves and plans a two - phase development with a total investment of 5 billion yuan [15] - Australian lithium miner Liontown Resources' production and shipments increased in Q1 2025, and its operating costs decreased [16] - The Chilean regulator approved the joint - venture plan between Codelco and SQM to develop lithium resources in the Atacama Salt Lake [17] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot price of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 1.9% week - on - week to $793/ton [12] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract has fallen below the 70,000 - yuan mark again - Multiple lithium carbonate futures and spot prices decreased. For example, the closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate futures near - month contract (LC2505) decreased by 2.8% to 68,380 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium showed different degrees of decline or slight increase [12] 3.4 Terminal: In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year - Although the specific data in the text is not detailed, it is emphasized that there was a high year - on - year increase in production and sales [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract shows a long - signal at the daily level and the weekly level, with a neutral signal at the monthly level. The CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53]. - The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17, the net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, the long - term hedging signal persists, and there is no arbitrage signal. The net values of the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are also provided [2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Multivariate Asset Market Quick View 3.1.1. Market Price Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,295.06, up 0.56%. The CSI 1000 rose 1.85% to 5,939.50, while the SSE 50 fell 0.33% to 2,648.81. Among Treasury bonds, the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract decreased by 0.21% to 108.77. Commodity indexes generally showed an upward trend, with the Agricultural CFCI rising 1.54% to 158.43. In the international market, the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 6.73% to 17,382.94, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.75% to 65.83 [12]. 3.1.2. Sino - US Treasury Bond Interest Rates - US Treasury bond real yields decreased across different maturities from April 21 - 25, 2025. For example, the 10 - year real yield decreased from 2.20% to 2.02%. Chinese policy - based financial bond (CDB) and fixed - rate Treasury bond yields showed minor fluctuations during the same period [14][15]. 3.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Multivariate Assets 3.2.1. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Stocks - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, the Nasdaq to the FTSE 100, the Nasdaq to the German DAX, and the Nasdaq to the Nikkei 225 are presented, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different stock indexes [17][19][21]. 3.2.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Commodities - The ratios of the CSI Commodity Index to the Metal Index, the Energy Index, the Agricultural Product Index, and the Chemical Index are provided, indicating the relative strength - weakness relationships among different commodity indexes [24][27][29][31]. 3.2.3. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Treasury Bonds - The ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds to US Treasury bonds and the long - short - term ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds are shown, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different Treasury bonds [33][34]. 3.2.4. Stock - Bond Strength - Weakness - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the Chinese Treasury bond net - price index and the Nasdaq to the US Treasury bond core bond are presented, showing the relative strength - weakness relationship between stocks and bonds [36][37]. 3.2.5. Bond - Commodity Strength - Weakness - The relationship between the copper - gold ratio and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures and the relationship between the gold - oil ratio and the US Treasury bond core bond are analyzed, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationship between bonds and commodities [41][42]. 3.3. Multivariate Asset Signal Tracking and Simulated Net Value 3.3.1. One - Week Review of Multivariate Asset Signals - From April 21 - 25, 2025, the corn main contract had a long - signal at the 60 - minute level on April 21, and the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract had long - signals at the 60 - minute level every day during this period [1][44]. 3.3.2. Multivariate Asset Simulated Net Value - **Treasury Bond Strategy Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, with no arbitrage signal and a persistent long - term hedging signal. The net values of the 5 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2241 and 1.2065 respectively, and those of the 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2736 and 1.2563 respectively [45]. - **Multivariate Asset Portfolio Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17. The initial capital is 10 million RMB, with 10 lots per futures transaction. The latest signals show that the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract has long - signals at the daily and weekly levels and a neutral signal at the monthly level, while the CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53].

周度报告——新能源汽车 雷克萨斯独资工厂落地上海 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，2025 年第 16 周（2025 年 4 月 14 日至 4 月 20 日），国内乘用车零售 38.1 万辆，同比增长 9.0%；新能源乘 用车零售 20.3 万辆，同比增长 27.9%；新能源渗透率为 53.2%。 今年以来，国内乘用车累计零售 600.5 万辆，同比增长 3.1%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 290.6 万辆，同比增长 33.0%；累计新能源 渗透率为 48.4%。4 月全月来看，乘联会预计新能源零售 90 万， 渗透率 51.4%。 新 能 企业端，雷克萨斯作为第二家外商独资车企正式落地上海金山， 工厂投资额 146 亿元，首期拿地 1,692 亩，预计于 6 月开工，初 期年产能约 10 万辆，第一台车将于 2027 年生产下线。 源 与 新 全球来看，3 月全球新能源汽车销量同比增长 33.4%达 149 万辆， 1-3 月累计同比增长 35.4%达 360 万辆。3 月全球新能源渗透率为 24.2%，环比增加 1.5 个百分点。 料 ★ 投资建议 中国新能源汽车行业发展由政策驱动转向市场驱动，23 年新 ...