研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日 星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五两市主要指数冲高后，午盘出现剧烈波动，但无碍上行趋势，商业航天板块继 | | | | | 续上涨。两市成交额 2.16 万亿元，温和放量。中证 500 指数收 7458 点，涨 48 点， | | | | | 涨幅 0.65%；中证 1000 指数收 7605 点，涨 26 点，涨幅 0.35%；沪深 300 指数收 4657 | | | | | 点，涨 14 点，涨幅 0.32%；上证 50 指数收 3045 点，涨 12 点，涨幅 0.41%。行业 | | | | | 与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是矿业 ETF、有色金属 ETF、卫星 ...

联系方式：0371-65617380 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货涨势延续，截至夜盘收盘2603合约涨幅1%，收于2230元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，截至12月26日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约180万吨 | | | | | 。北方港口到货量相对一般，库存同比仍处于历史偏低水平；广东港口玉米库存56 | | | | | 万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.3万吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第52周末，广州港口谷物库存量为 | | | | | 149.2万吨，环比增加15.57%，同比下降48.34%。其中：玉米库存量为65.8万吨，环 | | | | | 比增加31.08%，同比下降5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is turning offensive, and an upward market is expected to start before New Year's Day [65]. - China's stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation-driven' to 'profit-driven', with profit realization and moderate valuation expansion as the core drivers of returns [20]. - Global funds are re - investing in China's stock market, and the technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to layout AI [20]. Summary by Related Contents Market and Index Information - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 Index has the highest 'technology content' and is approaching its previous high [11]. - Institutional funds entered the market on a large scale through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3950 points [14]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 56% [20]. - The trading strategy for stock index futures is to turn offensive and opportunistically establish long positions in stock index futures mainly based on growth - type indices [21]. - The trading strategy for stock index options is to turn offensive and opportunistically open call options on the CSI 1000 Index [22]. Economic Data in China - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [23]. - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, reaching a new high, and 2.38 million new A - share accounts were opened in November [25]. - China's export value in November was 330.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.9%, indicating that exports still have resilience [28]. - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, showing a stall in manufacturing investment [31]. - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a stall in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [34]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 31.3%, hitting a new low [37]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [40]. Economic Data in the United States - The US core CPI in November was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in a week was 224,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [46]. - In November, the newly - added ADP employment in the US showed negative growth, and the number of active corporate lay - offs increased rapidly [49]. - In October, the total retail and food sales in the US had zero month - on - month growth, indicating a weakening of US consumption [52]. - In September, both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of US capital goods import value decreased rapidly, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [55]. - In November, the ISM manufacturing PMI price index continued to expand, and the service PMI price index still expanded rapidly, indicating an acceleration of inflation in the US [58]. Situation in Japan - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds soared above 2.0%. The large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US bonds and stocks [61][62]. Industry - Specific Events - On December 6, LandSpace Technology verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket [7]. - The US and China are in a fierce space infrastructure competition, and the commercial space industry has entered a high - growth phase led by national will [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Chinese equity assets are expected to initiate a spring market. Factors include the Fed's monthly purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds, intense space infrastructure competition between China and the US, institutional funds entering the market through A500ETF, the approaching of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices to previous highs, the seasonal pattern of the Chinese stock market, the end of the A - share sideways movement, the high "science content" of the CSI 500 index, and the accelerating appreciation of the RMB [37]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the global stock market has entered the "optimistic stage" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market, with a total return rate of 15% including dividends [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, started buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet [4][5]. - Trump stated that the next Fed chairman must believe in "substantial interest rate cuts" [4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the current decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [4]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusted its economic relations with China, and aimed to revitalize its economic autonomy [4]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified. High - income consumers' spending remains resilient, while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [4]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists are worried that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [4][11]. - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [4]. - The US November core CPI was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [8]. - The US weekly initial jobless claims were 224,000 [11]. - The US employment outlook declined. The number of new ADP jobs in November was negative, and the number of active corporate layoffs increased rapidly [14]. - The total retail and food sales in the US in October showed zero month - on - month growth, indicating weakening consumption [17]. - The US capital goods import amount in September decreased rapidly both year - on - year and month - on - month, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [20]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in November [23]. - The US manufacturing PMI price index and service PMI price index continued to expand in November, indicating accelerating inflation [26]. - The US PPI commodity month - on - month growth rate in September was 0.9%. Coupled with weakening consumption and declining employment, the US economy is slipping into stagflation [29]. - The eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted again in November, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US counter - tariffs [32]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the rise in the yield of Japanese government bonds will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [34]. Asset Allocation - The Fed's purchase of short - term bonds is beneficial to Chinese equity assets [37]. - The space infrastructure competition between China and the US has led to a high - growth period in commercial space, and satellite ETFs have risen strongly [37][38]. - Some institutions have started spring layout in advance, and institutional funds have entered the market through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,950 points [37][45]. - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are close to previous highs and are expected to reach new highs after New Year's Day [37]. - The Chinese stock market has a seasonal pattern, and usually starts a spring offensive around the Spring Festival [37]. - The A - share market has been sideways for 4 months since late August and is expected to start a new market [37][48]. - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 index has the highest "science content" and is expected to break through previous highs [37][51]. - The accelerating appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the influx of international capital into China [37][54]. Space Infrastructure - Blue Arrow Aerospace verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket on December 6 [41].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 夜盘收盘价 | 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价上涨 | CU2602 | 97680 | 2.8 | 3%。沪铜次主力合约 | 夜盘收于 | 元/吨，涨幅 | 2.82%。 | CU2603 | 97820 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、12 | 月 | 日，上交所官网公告，江西铜业（600362.SH）正式要约收购索尔黄金（S | 25 | | | | | | | | | | | | | olGold，伦交所代码 | SOLG.L），该要约估值约 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton sector is bullish [2] Core View - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise. The expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year stimulate the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined. Overall, a bullish view is maintained on Zhengzhou cotton, but short - term correction risks should be alerted [2] Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - ICE March contract settlement price rose 23 points, May contract was at 65.49 (up 29 points), July contract was at 66.58 (up 31 points), with a trading volume of about 26,000 lots. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 452,688 lots, and the open interest was 1,132,769 lots. The settlement prices were 14,255 yuan/ton for January, 14,215 yuan/ton for May, and 14,380 yuan/ton for September [2] Important Information - In November, Japan imported 1,701 tons of cotton, a 6.6% decrease from October (1,822 tons) and a 28.3% decrease from the same period last year (2,374 tons). From August 2025 to July 2026, Japan's cumulative cotton imports were about 6,692 tons, a 32.5% decrease from the previous year (9,912 tons) [2] - From December 12 to December 18, the United States graded and inspected 19.93 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 83.7% of lint meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 242.43 million tons, with 82.7% of lint meeting the requirements [2] - On the 19th, the listed volume of Indian cotton in the 2025/26 season was about 42,000 tons of lint, mainly from Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. The CCI auctioned about 72,000 tons, with a trading volume of 867 tons on the day. The S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 51,300 rupees/candy, equivalent to about 72.50 cents/pound [2] Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures are closed; Zhengzhou cotton continues to rise due to the expansion of textile production capacity in Xinjiang and the reduction of cotton planting subsidies next year, which stimulates the increase in positions on the futures market. The operating rate of downstream textile enterprises has not significantly declined [2] Trading Strategy - Hold the call option with an exercise price of 13,600 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, and partially take profits on the long futures positions [2]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 26 日星期五 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 圣诞节 COMEX 贵金属休市。沪金收涨 1.07%报 1019.6 元/克，沪银涨 5.50%报 18131 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 12 月 24 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.71 吨，持仓量为 1068.27 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 减少 56.4 吨，当前持仓量为 16446.97 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 15.5%，维持 利率不变的概率为 84.5%。到明年 3 月累计降息 25 个基点 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Oscillating Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel market is expected to continue oscillating, with the rebar having a pressure level of 3200 and a support level of 3030. Short - term operations are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed higher, but closed lower at night [1] Important Information - Multiple cities including Handan, Baoding, Xingtai, and Xi'an have launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses, and Anhui has issued a provincial orange warning for heavy - pollution weather [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 796.82 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%. The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1257.99 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.8%. The weekly consumption of the five major products was 833.61 million tons, with building material consumption decreasing by 3.2% month - on - month and plate consumption increasing by 1.4% month - on - month [1] Market Logic - Most steel mills have not introduced winter storage policies, only a few in Northeast and North China have. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the profit margin is still low, and production continues to operate at a low level. This week, steel production decreased, inventory continued to decline, and the consumption side was divided, with building material consumption decreasing and plate consumption increasing. It is still the off - season, and most manufacturers have not carried out winter storage. The prices of raw fuels have not fluctuated much, and costs still support steel prices [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation is recommended [1]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Treasury bond futures are likely to oscillate in the short - term, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and fluctuated horizontally and narrowly throughout the day. The TL variety oscillated and declined. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.24%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.02% [1] 3.2 Important Information 3.2.1 Open Market - On Thursday, the central bank carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 88.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day. The central bank also carried out 400 billion yuan of MLF operations, with 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day. The net investment on that day was 188.8 billion yuan [1] 3.2.2 Money Market - On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.38% in the previous trading day [1] 3.2.3 Cash Bond Market - On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bond cash bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.43 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year increased by 0.37 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year increased by 0.30 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year decreased by 0.50 BP to 2.23% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. In November, China's export growth rate was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, with the inflation level remaining moderate. The fourth - quarter meeting of the central bank's monetary policy committee pointed out that it is necessary to grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy implementation according to domestic and international economic and financial situations and financial market operation conditions. On Thursday, the Wind All - A Index opened slightly lower, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.60% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.94 trillion yuan, slightly larger than the 1.90 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. The stock market rose on Thursday, while most treasury bond futures moved sideways [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1]

Group 1 - Morning session notice released on December 26, 2025, by Green Grand Futures Research Institute, with researcher Ji Xiaoyun [1] - Contact information for the researcher: 010 - 56711796 [1]