1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn,生猪, and eggs are all rated as "区间" (Range) [1][3] 2. Core Views - For corn, in the short - term, the spot price has both support and pressure, and the bullish sentiment on the futures market weakens; in the medium - term, the supply pattern may tighten, and the spot price will tend to be stronger; in the long - term, policy grain release and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1] - For pigs, in the short - term, the price may fluctuate, with the national average price of 14 yuan/kg as a valid support; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the price to rise continuously; in the long - term, the production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, the price has basically confirmed the bottom and may strengthen, but a sharp increase is difficult; in the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound in August - September, but the high point should not be over - optimistic; in the long - term, if the profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Last night, the corn futures fluctuated weakly. As of the night - session close, the 2509 contract fell 0.95% to 2303 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - Yesterday, the spot price was stable with a slight increase. The prices at north - south ports were stable, and the purchase price of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly. As of July 22, the corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1686 lots to 175657 lots. The wheat - corn price difference in Shandong was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the 22nd, CGSGB sold 198558 tons of imported corn with a 27% transaction rate, and will organize another sale of 195017 tons on the 25th [1] Market Logic - Short - term: The spot price has both support and pressure, and the bullish sentiment on the futures market weakens. Medium - term: The supply pattern may tighten, and the spot price will tend to be stronger. Long - term: Policy grain release and wheat substitution may limit the price increase [1] Trading Strategy - Long - term: Range operation; Medium - term: Low - buying strategy; Short - term: Verify support and test resistance. The previous report's suggestions on the 2509 contract were verified by the market [1] Pigs Market Review - Yesterday, the main contracts of live - hog futures fluctuated strongly. The LH2509 contract rose 0.21% to 14380 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 contract rose 0.69% to 13960 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On the 22nd, the national average live - hog price was 14.34 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day. In June 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40430000, up 0.1% year - on - year. The inventory of medium - and large - sized pigs in June decreased by 0.8% from the previous month. On the 22nd, the price difference between fat and standard hogs was 0.15 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. The weekly average slaughter weight on July 17 was 124.56 kg, down 0.18 kg from the previous week. On the 22nd, the number of live - hog futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 284 lots [3] Market Logic - Short - term: The price may fluctuate. Medium - term: There is an expected increase in supply in the second half of the year, making it difficult for the price to rise continuously. Long - term: The production capacity will continue to be realized if there is no epidemic [3] Trading Strategy - Long - term: High - selling strategy; Medium - term: Range operation; Short - term: Verify support and then strengthen to test resistance. Suggestions for breeding enterprises to consider selling - hedging opportunities [3] Eggs Market Review - Yesterday, the egg futures fluctuated. The JD2509 contract fell 0.08% to 3621 yuan/500kg [3] Important Information - Yesterday, the egg price was stable with a slight increase. The inventory level decreased slightly. The average price of old hens increased. In June, the inventory of laying hens was about 1.34 billion, and the theoretical estimated value for July is 1.352 billion [3] Market Logic - Short - term: The price has basically confirmed the bottom and may strengthen, but a sharp increase is difficult. Medium - term: There may be a phased rebound in August - September, but the high point should not be over - optimistic. Long - term: If the profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may reappear in the fourth quarter [3] Trading Strategy - The 09 contract follows a short - long and long - short strategy. If the elimination in the third quarter is less than expected, consider short - selling opportunities in the 2512, 2601, 2602, and 2603 contracts [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector is moderately bullish in the medium term [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The black market continued to rise rapidly driven by macro factors. The spot prices also increased. The anti - involution policy is gradually strengthening, regarded as Supply - side Reform 2.0. The macro factors drive the industry, leading to a significant increase in the futures market. It is expected that the supply - demand structure will improve under the anti - involution drive. Steel products such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and stainless steel are moderately bullish in the medium term, but short - term callback risks should be watched out for [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and stainless steel rose significantly, and the upward trend continued in the night session. In June, the total social electricity consumption increased by 5.4% year - on - year. The second round of coke price increase started. In the first half of this year, the national water conservancy construction investment reached 53.29 billion yuan, with 34,400 water conservancy projects implemented and 18,800 new projects started. From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; the new order volume was 44.33 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [1] Market Logic - The black market continued to rise rapidly driven by macro factors. The anti - involution policy is gradually strengthening. It is expected that the supply - demand structure will improve under the anti - involution drive. The pressure level of rebar moved up to 3297, with an important support level at 3060. The support level of hot - rolled coil is 3200, and the pressure level moved up to 3483. The pressure level of the stainless steel main contract is 13200, and the support level is 12650 [1] Trading Strategy - Rebar and hot - rolled coil show a moderately bullish trend in the medium term under the anti - involution drive, but short - term callback risks should be watched out for [1]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 22 日星期二 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片主力合约 PR2509 的期货价格上涨 12 元至 5988 元/吨。持仓方面，主 力合约 2509 持仓量为 3.53 万手，持仓+221 手。现货市场，华东市场水瓶级瓶片价 格上涨 50 元至 6000 元/吨，华南市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定在 6030 元/吨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.5 万吨，较上周减少 0.19 万吨。 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 71.1%，较上周下降 0.4%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5531 元，下降 0.72%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-192 元/吨，环比增加 21 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、需求方 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - Despite the seasonal off - peak season for methanol downstream in July, with port inventory accumulation and minor de - stocking in production areas, and no obvious improvement in downstream demand, and large import pressure due to the restart of Iranian facilities, the short - term methanol price is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the range of 2350 - 2500 yuan/ton because of the positive commodity sentiment after the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's statement on promoting the elimination of backward production capacity in key industries [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday night, the futures price of the main methanol contract rose 30 yuan/ton to 2404 yuan/ton, while the spot price in the mainstream East China region fell 5 yuan/ton to 2385 yuan/ton. Long positions increased by 677 lots to 368,400 lots, and short positions increased by 18,001 lots to 483,800 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decline, and the overseas operating rate was 72.45%, a 1.3% month - on - month increase [2] - Inventory: The total port inventory of methanol in China was 790,200 tons, an increase of 71,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 63,500 tons, and that in South China increased by 7,800 tons. The inventory of sample domestic methanol producers was 352,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period, a 1.28% month - on - month decline [2] - Demand: The signed orders of northwest methanol enterprises were 63,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month. The pending orders of sample enterprises were 243,100 tons, an increase of 21,900 tons from the previous period, a 9.89% month - on - month increase. The olefin operating rate was 86.23%, a 0.2% month - on - month increase; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 5.19%, unchanged month - on - month; the methyl chloride operating rate was 71.27%, a 0.03% month - on - month increase; the acetic acid operating rate was 90.5%, a 3.3% month - on - month decrease; the formaldehyde operating rate was 43.6%, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [2] - Policy: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of stable growth work plans for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [2] Market Logic - In July, the methanol downstream enters the seasonal off - peak season. The port inventory accumulates, and the production area has minor de - stocking. The downstream demand has not improved significantly. With the restart of Iranian facilities, the import pressure in July is still large. Considering the increasing number of domestic methanol facility overhauls in July, the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The statement of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 18 led to a positive commodity sentiment, resulting in the short - term methanol price being oscillating and slightly bullish [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish trading strategy [2]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 07 月 21 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 | | | 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 上周五生猪期货主力合约震荡偏强，LH2509合约日涨幅1.07%，收于14135元/吨；L | | | | H2511合约日涨幅0.96%，收于13635元/吨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、20日全国生猪均价14.34元/公斤，较18日涨0.17元/公斤；预计今日早间猪价北 | | | | 弱南强，东北调整至14-14.7元/公斤，山东弱稳至14.3-14.9元/公斤，河南微跌至1 | | | | 4.4-14.7元/公斤，四川稳定至13.5-13.8元/公斤，广东涨至15.8-16.2元/公斤，广 | | | | 西涨至13.8-14.3元/公斤。 | | | | 2、官方口径显示我国25年6月能繁母猪存栏4043万头，同比增长0.1%，是 ...

Report on Pre - market Tips 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the precious metals market, including gold and silver. It points out that the US economy remains robust, with better - than - expected consumer confidence and retail sales data. However, inflation data is mixed, which makes the Fed likely to remain cautious. Gold and silver prices are in a state of oscillation, and long - position holders of silver are advised to continue holding [1]. 3. Summary by Sections Market Review - COMEX gold futures rose 0.30% to $3355.5 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.32% to $38.425 per ounce. At night, the main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 0.33% to 9216 yuan per kilogram [1]. Important Information - As of July 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 4.87 tons to 943.63 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 36.74 tons to 14658.21 tons. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in July was 61.8 (expected 61.5, previous value 60.7), and the preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation in July was 4.4% (expected 5.0%, previous value 5.0%) [1]. Market Logic - The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6%, the highest since March this year, higher than the market expectation of 0.1%. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, slightly better than expected. The US economy remains robust. - The US core CPI in June increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market estimate of 0.3%. The CPI in June only rose moderately, and both the core CPI and PPI were lower than expected. The market doubts the impact of tariffs on inflation, and the Fed may remain cautious [1]. Trading Strategy - The gold price is oscillating, with COMEX gold trading between $3250 - $3480 per ounce and the domestic Shanghai gold main contract trading between 750 - 800 yuan per gram. After reaching a high on July 14, COMEX silver has been in a correction for several days, and long - position holders are advised to continue holding [1].

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 21 日 星期一 早盘提示 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五两市主要指数温和上行，稀土板块领涨。两市成交额 1.57 万亿元，变化不大。 | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 6552 点，涨 16 点，涨幅 0.25%；中证 500 指数收 6099 点，涨 17 | | | | | 点，涨幅 0.28%；沪深 300 指数收 4058 点，涨 24 点，涨幅 0.60%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | | 2764 点，涨 20 点，涨幅 0.74%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是稀土 ETF、有色金 | | | | | 属 ETF、化工 ETF、航天航空 ETF 天弘、军工龙头 ETF，跌幅居前的是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The total output of the top ten coal - producing enterprises increased, but the growth rate of coal production in Shanxi Province slowed down significantly in June [2] Summary by Related Content Coal Production Data of Top Ten State - owned Coal Enterprises in H1 2025 - The top ten state - owned coal enterprises in terms of raw coal production in H1 2025 are National Energy Group, Jinneng Holding Group, Shandong Energy Group, China National Coal Group, Shaanxi Coal Group, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, Huaneng Group, Lu'an Chemical Group, Henan Energy Group, and State Power Investment Group [1] - In H1 2025, National Energy Group produced 30,589 tons of raw coal, a year - on - year decrease of 1.0%; Jinneng Holding Group produced 20,257 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9%; Shandong Energy Group produced 13,837 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; China National Coal Group produced 13,547 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%; Shaanxi Coal Group produced 12,911 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%; Shanxi Coking Coal Group produced 9,305 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.4%; Huaneng Group produced 5,113 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.9%; Lu'an Chemical Group produced 4,968 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1%; Henan Energy Group produced 3,727 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; State Power Investment Group produced 3,660 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% [1] Overall Output and Proportion - From January to June 2025, the total raw coal output of the top 10 enterprises was 1.18 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 40.26 million tons, accounting for 9.93% of the raw coal output of enterprises above the designated size [4] Slowdown in Growth Rate - The growth rate of raw coal production of Jinneng Holding Group, Shanxi Coking Coal Group, and Lu'an Chemical Group from January to June slowed down to 10.9%, 16.4%, and 13.1% respectively [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on Chinese equity assets and commodities [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global economic outlook is positive, with the global economy continuing to rise [7] - China's efforts to strengthen the domestic economic cycle and combat cut - throat competition are expected to boost the performance of listed companies and commodity prices [7][33][34] - The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, which is bullish for silver [13][36] - Anti - cut - throat competition is negative for China's long - duration government bonds [37] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - China's social retail sales are 1.6 times that of the US in terms of actual purchasing power. The US retail and food sales in June reached $720.1 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%, indicating strong consumer demand [7][8] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52.0, continuing to expand. China's June PMI production index continued to expand, and the new order index resumed expansion [7] - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September and accelerate rate cuts in 2026. The US core CPI in June increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The PPI final demand in June increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 0% month - on - month [7][13][15] - The number of job openings in the US in May was 7.76 million, showing an upward trend. The number of hires in May was the second - highest this year, indicating a tightening labor market [17] - The hourly wage of US non - agricultural enterprises in June was $36.24, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.9% [20] - The US wholesalers' inventory in May increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and manufacturers' inventory increased by 0.9% year - on - year, in an active inventory replenishment state [23] - The Eurozone has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany is expanding its military by 30%, which is expected to boost the Eurozone's manufacturing [7][25] - India's manufacturing PMI in June continued to expand, and its manufacturing and service industries have been expanding for more than three years [27] - Japan's ruling party may lose the election, and the yield of Japan's 40 - year government bonds hit a new high [29] Asset Allocation - China's Shanghai Composite Index has stabilized above 3500 points, and off - market funds are accelerating into the market. Growth - style indexes are more aggressive [32] - Global financial institutional investors are moving away from the US, and the re - allocation of global financial assets is favorable for Chinese assets [32] - Anti - cut - throat competition in China is expected to increase the performance of listed companies [33][41] - Anti - cut - throat competition is expected to drive the Wenhua Commodity Index into a trending upward market [34][50] - Photovoltaic and new energy vehicles are the focus of the current anti - cut - throat competition, and polysilicon, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate are favored [35][53][56] - The Fed is likely to start cutting interest rates in September, and silver is favored [36][59] - Anti - cut - throat competition pushes up commodity prices, which is negative for China's long - duration government bonds [37][62] - For the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index contracts 2509 and 2512, a strategy of earning both index increase and premium spread can be continued [44]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term bottom of Treasury bond futures has been found, and the market will continue to observe the performance of the stock market. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band - style operations [1][2] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Market Review] - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened flat across the board and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.02%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2509 rose 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2509 rose 0.01% [1] [Important Information] - **Open Market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Thursday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funds market declined slightly compared to the previous trading day. DR001 had a weighted average of 1.46% (previous day: 1.47%), and DR007 had a weighted average of 1.52% (previous day: 1.53%) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared to the previous trading day. The yield of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.24 BP to 1.39%, 5 - year bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.52%, 10 - year bonds increased by 0.13 BP to 1.66%, and 30 - year bonds increased by 1.69 BP to 1.88% [1] - **US Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 12 was 221,000 (expected: 235,000, previous value revised from 227,000 to 228,000). The US retail sales month - on - month rate in June was 0.6% (highest since March this year, expected: 0.1%, previous value: - 0.90%) [1] - **Eurozone Data**: The final annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in June was 2% (expected: 2%, previous value: 2%), and the final monthly CPI rate was 0.3% (expected: 0.3%, previous value: 0.3%) [1] [Market Logic] - China's Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In H1, China's fixed - asset investment grew 2.8% year - on - year (market expected 3.7%, 1 - 5 months: 3.7%). In June, social consumer goods retail sales grew 4.8% year - on - year (market expected 5.6%, May: 6.4%), industrial added value above designated size grew 6.8% year - on - year (market expected 5.5%, May: 5.8%), and exports in US dollars grew 5.8% year - on - year (expected: 3.2%, previous value: 4.8%). However, domestic real estate sales and prices continued to decline, and China's economic growth in H2 faces challenges and needs to boost domestic demand. Trump postponed the tariff negotiation deadline to August 1, and the US will impose a 30% tariff on products from Mexico and the EU starting August 1. The global financial market was calm about the US tariff information. The Wind All - A Index rose unilaterally on Thursday, while Treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly [1][2] [Trading Strategy] - Traders are advised to conduct band - style operations [2]