1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic sector in the macro and financial area is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The global economic upward direction remains unchanged despite the potential significant increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East after the US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities [1] 3. Summary of Key Points Based on the Catalog Important Information - President Trump claimed that Iran's key uranium - enrichment facilities were "completely destroyed" and that the strike on Iranian nuclear facilities was a "huge military victory" [1] - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps vowed to punish the US severely and stated that every US citizen and military personnel in the Middle East was a "legitimate target" [1] - Elon Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big - bang" and an "AI tsunami" is coming, predicting that AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut its policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [1] - Japan's core inflation rate in May climbed to 3.7%, the highest since January 2023, increasing the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - The CEO of X revealed that users will soon be able to invest and trade on the X platform, and the company is exploring launching X - branded credit or debit cards [1] - Citi analysis shows that if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for months, oil prices could reach $90 per barrel, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase but will be short - lived [1] Global Economic Logic - The US raid on Iranian nuclear facilities has significantly escalated Middle East geopolitical risks, and the upward momentum of crude oil prices may far exceed expectations [1] - A phased framework agreement between China and the US has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion [1] - The Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition [1] - The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing prosperity [1] - If crude oil prices skyrocket, the global inflation transmission caused by the increase in oil prices will take time. The global economic upward trend remains unchanged [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Amid the continued escalation of the Middle - East situation with a high probability of US military involvement, the market risk preference is decreasing, and A - shares should continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and shifting to European and Chinese assets [47] - The surge in crude oil prices has pushed the world into an inflation shock mode [44] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Situation - This week, the market risk preference declined, and growth - style indices mainly adjusted. In the defensive mode, the bank ETF reached a new high in this round [7][10] Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Events - The Middle - East situation is escalating, with a high probability of US military involvement. Swiss National Bank cut the policy rate from 0.25% to 0%, the sixth consecutive cut, effective June 20 [13][53] - Musk warned that humanity is at the starting point of an "intelligent big bang", and an "AI tsunami" is coming. AI super - intelligence may be achieved in 2025 or 2026 [13][53] - According to Citi analysis, if Iranian oil exports are interrupted for several months, oil prices may reach $90 per barrel. Closing the Strait of Hormuz may cause a sharp price increase, but the blockade will be short - lived [13][53] China's Economic Data - In May, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.93 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 7.8%. China continues large - scale investment in emerging and future industries [14] - In May, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.26 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 9.3%, maintaining medium - to - high - speed growth [17] - The monthly values of new housing starts and commercial housing sales areas have stabilized [20] - In May, the monthly value of retail sales of consumer goods was 3.67 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.5%, indicating continuous improvement in consumption [22] - In May, the monthly value of China's above - scale express delivery volume was 17.32 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 17.2% [25] - In May, the monthly output of industrial robots was 69,000 units, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 34.1% [27] - In May, the monthly output of integrated circuits was 42.4 billion pieces, the second - highest in history, with a year - on - year growth rate of 19.6%, indicating accelerated domestic substitution of chips [29] - In May, China's passenger car exports reached 591,000 vehicles, including 332,000 electric vehicles, both hitting new highs [31] US Economic Data - In April, US retail and food sales were $715.4 billion, at a high level, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, showing strong US consumption [33] - In May, US manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [35] - In May, the year - on - year growth rate of US core CPI was 2.8% (same as the previous value), with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [38] - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventory was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventory was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [40] European Economic Data - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost German and Eurozone manufacturing [42] Investment and Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks and the high probability of US military involvement, the investment advice for A - shares is to continue the defensive strategy [13][53] - For stock index option trading, due to the significant escalation of Middle - East geopolitical risks, option suggestions are suspended [13][53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating, and the upward momentum of crude oil prices may significantly exceed expectations. The global economy is still on an upward trajectory, but if crude oil prices skyrocket, there will be a time lag in the transmission of global inflation caused by the increase in oil prices [15]. - With the shift of Israel's goal from destroying Iranian nuclear facilities to overthrowing the Iranian regime and the high probability of US military involvement, the Middle East is likely to face greater - scale turmoil and chaos, and the upward potential of crude oil prices may far exceed expectations [47]. - The sharp rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive a collective increase in energy and chemical products. The global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and reallocating to European and Chinese assets, which is beneficial to A - shares [47][53]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - **US Economy** - In April, US retail and food sales reached $715.4 billion, with a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, indicating strong consumer spending [16]. - In May, the US core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The market expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September [18]. - The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52%, showing continued expansion in the manufacturing sector. In the same month, manufacturing prices continued to rise rapidly, and service prices accelerated their increase [20][22]. - In April, the number of job openings in the US was 7.39 million, and the number of hires reached a one - year high, indicating a tightening labor market [25]. - In May, the hourly wage of non - agricultural enterprises in the US was $36.24, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.9% [28]. - In April, US consumer goods imports returned to normal, with a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The import amount of capital goods was $90.5 billion, second only to that in March, indicating an accelerated return of the manufacturing industry [31][33]. - In April, the monthly value of US service exports reached $98.8 billion, a new high for the year, showing the strength of the service industry [36]. - In April, the year - on - year growth rate of US wholesalers' inventories was 2.3%, and that of manufacturers' inventories was 0.9%, indicating an active inventory replenishment state [39]. - **European Economy** - On June 5th, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the eighth time in a year, to 2% [41]. - Germany launched the largest - scale military expansion since the Cold War, with a 30% increase in military strength, which is expected to boost the manufacturing industries in Germany and the Eurozone [43]. - **Indian Economy** - In May, India's manufacturing PMI continued to expand, and its manufacturing and service industries have been expanding for more than three years [45]. Asset Allocation - **Crude Oil and Chemicals** - The shift of the Israeli - Iranian conflict and the potential US military intervention may lead to a significant increase in crude oil prices, which will drive up the prices of energy and chemical products [47]. - Iran's liquefied petroleum gas accounts for 28% of China's imports, and high - sulfur fuel oil accounts for 21% of China's imports. Iranian refineries have started preventive shutdowns, and the supply gap of chemical products after the shutdown cannot be quickly filled [49][50][51]. - Iranian refineries' preventive shutdowns have led to Chinese large - scale private refineries starting preventive production cuts to prevent disruptions in Iranian crude oil supply [52]. - **Financial Assets** - Global large - scale institutional investors are continuously reducing their holdings of US assets and reallocating to European and Chinese assets, which is beneficial to A - shares. A - shares are in a defensive state, and the bank ETF has reached a new high [53][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures this week was a volatile upward trend, with the 30 - year variety showing a relatively strong trend. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market, and Treasury bond futures may experience a slightly more volatile trend. For trading - type investments, a band - operation strategy is recommended [5][37][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bond Futures Market - This week, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showed a volatile upward trend. By the end of the week, the 30 - year Treasury bond rose 0.71%, the 10 - year Treasury bond rose 0.14%, the 5 - year Treasury bond rose 0.12%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond rose 0.09% [5] Consumption Data - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41326 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%, exceeding the market expectation of 4.9%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year - on - year. The retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 184324 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [8] - In May, driven by the trade - in policy, the retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment, communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, and furniture in units above the designated size increased by 53.0%, 33.0%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively. The sales of basic daily necessities and some upgraded consumer goods also showed good growth momentum. The retail sales of automobiles in units above the designated size increased by 1.1% year - on - year [10] Investment Data - From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 4.0%. Among them, the broad - based infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 10.42%, the narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 5.6%, the manufacturing investment increased by 8.5%, and the real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% [13] Real Estate Market - From January to May, the sales area of newly - built commercial housing nationwide was 35315 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9%, and the sales volume was 34091 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% [15] - In the first half of June, the average daily transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10% [17] - In May, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 0.7% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. The sales prices of second - hand residential properties in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the decline rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points [21] Service Industry and Industrial Production - In May, the national service industry production index increased by 6.2% year - on - year. Among them, the production indexes of information transmission, software and information technology services, leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail industries showed relatively fast growth [23] - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The product sales rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 95.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7 percentage points [26][28] Unemployment Rate - In May, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the same as the same period last year [31] Capital Market Interest Rates - This week, the capital market interest rates remained stable. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.37%, and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%. The average issuance rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.65%, a slight decline. The loan prime rate (LPR) announced on June 20 was the same as last month [34] Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The market logic is that from January to May, the fixed - asset investment growth rate was lower than market expectations, while May's consumption growth was significantly better than expected. Exports maintained a relatively high positive growth, industrial production grew steadily and rapidly, the unemployment rate decreased slightly, and the social financing scale and credit data were close to market expectations. The overall environment is favorable for the bond market [37] - The trading strategy is that trading - type investments should adopt a band - operation strategy [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] Report's Core View - The upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged despite ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The conclusion is based on factors such as the US-China agreement stabilizing economic expectations, the expansion of the US manufacturing sector, growth in US consumer credit, China's efforts to address cut - throat competition, and the recovery of European manufacturing [1] Summary by Related Content Important Information - The Fed's June dot - plot shows an extreme trend of "either zero rate cuts or two rate cuts". Powell indicates that rate cuts require confirmation of tariff impacts on inflation and face new obstacles like Middle - East conflict escalation and unexpected food price surges, with key decisions postponed to after summer [1] - US President Trump has approved an attack plan on Iran but hasn't issued a final order, aiming to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program through threats [1] - Trump has repeatedly asked military advisors about the effectiveness of using giant bunker - busting bombs to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities if the US joins the Israel - Iran war [1] - Japan plans to cut the issuance of 20 - year, 30 - year, and 40 - year bonds by 100 billion yen each in each auction from July until the end of March 2026, reducing the ultra - long - term bond issuance by about 10% this fiscal year. The finance ministry will increase short - term and household - designed bond issuance to fill the gap [1] - The US FDA has approved Gilead's lenapavir for pre - exposure prevention of HIV. Clinical results show it can reduce the HIV infection rate by 99.9% with only two doses a year [1] - The CEO of JD CoinChain says payment - type stablecoins will play a "disruptive" positive role in Web3 international trade and plans to launch stablecoins pegged to the Hong Kong dollar and other currencies [1] - After Israel's attack on Iran, the rent of super - large crude oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has more than doubled in a week, rising from $19,998 to $47,609 per day, a 138% increase [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) data shows that the platinum market will have a significant deficit for the third consecutive year in 2025, with an expected shortage of 966,000 ounces [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East are escalating. The US - China phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The US Markit manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is addressing cut - throat competition. The European Central Bank has cut rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military by 30%, driving up European manufacturing. A potential oil price spike would take time to cause global inflation [1]

市场快讯 --- 库存压力VS减量预期 红枣日内强势上涨 2025年6月19日 1.前期红枣现货市场在供应宽松+需求波软+库存高压的三重 压迫下维持底部震荡。且从钢联的样本统计数据显示,当前红 枣样本库存仍处历史偏高水平,去库速度始终难以提速,这成 为压制前期枣价上行的主要因素。 2.受枣树生长特性影响,旧季红枣增产明显或导致次年枣树养 分透支,这意味着新年度枣树或将进入修复期,因此市场对今 年红枣的供应普遍抱有减量预期,同时盘面价格已跌至历史偏 低水平,部分资金已提前开启布局远月多单。 3.昨日郑商所宣布调整红枣期货合约的保证金标准和涨跌停板 幅度。其中保证金由10%降低为9%,张跌停盘由9%降低为 8%。 4.后市供应端的产量预期变化将成为主导下半年红枣走势的主 要逻辑,若由持续高温天气降临或枣树自身修复情况坐实,盘 面上方仍有空间等待打开,后续请关注我们具体的调研情况。 操作建议:我们已于5月提醒红枣远月合约存在多配价值,当 前盘面已提前反应市场对后市的看涨预期。建议未入场投资者 遇回调可少量布局多单,或卖出虚值看跌期权赚取权利金。 研究员：李克磊 从业资格 FO3104461 交易咨询: ZO0213 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global macro and financial economy is "Bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The upward trend of the global economy remains unchanged despite significant escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Factors such as the China-US reaching a phased framework agreement, the continued expansion of the US manufacturing PMI, the doubling of US consumer credit growth, China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition, the European Central Bank's 8th interest - rate cut, and Germany's expansion of military scale contribute to the economic situation. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Important Information - The "Guidance and Establishment of the US Stablecoin National Innovation Act" was passed in the US Senate with 68 votes in favor and 30 against, marking the first approval of major cryptocurrency legislation by the Senate [1] - JD Group Chairman Liu Qiangdong stated that JD hopes to apply for stablecoin licenses in all major currency countries globally, aiming to reduce global cross - border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to within 10 seconds, and will penetrate into C - end payment after B - end payment [1] - The World Gold Council's "2025 Global Central Bank Gold Reserve Survey" showed that 95% of surveyed central banks believe global central banks will continue to increase gold holdings in the next 12 months, the highest since 2019 and a 17 - percentage - point increase from 2024 [1] - Chinese central bank governor Pan Gongsheng said to study and promote RMB foreign exchange futures trading with the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1] - The talks between Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and US President Trump in Canada failed to reach a consensus on tariff negotiations, pushing the Japanese economy closer to a possible recession [1] - The European Commission proposed a legislative proposal to gradually stop importing Russian natural gas and oil by the end of 2027 [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei issued a statement early in the morning, stating the need to strongly attack the Zionist entity (Israel) and never compromise with Zionists [1] - US officials revealed that if the US joins Israel's war against Iran, Iran may attack US military bases in the Middle East, lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and trap US warships in the Persian Gulf [1] Global Economic Logic - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have significantly escalated. The China - US reaching a phased framework agreement has stabilized global economic expectations. The final value of the US manufacturing PMI in May was 52.0, indicating continued expansion. US consumer credit growth in April doubled to $17.9 billion. China is comprehensively rectifying involution - style competition. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates for the 8th time, and Germany has expanded its military scale by 30%, promoting the recovery of European manufacturing sentiment. If crude oil prices soar, the global inflation transmission caused by the oil price increase will take time, and the upward direction of the global economy remains unchanged [1]

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农产品 2025年06月18日 农产品研究员：王子健 从业资格证号：F03087965 交易咨询证号：Z0019551 联系方式： 17803978037 供应宽松预期压制上行空间 棉价震荡 格局难破 摘要： 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1288号 当前棉市受宏观政策博弈与产业基本面疲软的双重影响，短期内缺 乏单边驱动因素。市场焦点转向美联储政策动向及新棉生长季天气 变化，中长期走势需关注全球通胀路径与终端消费复苏节奏。 成文时间：2025年06月18日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官 方微信 宏观扰动提振市场 在当前国际贸易格局下，中美第二阶段经贸磋商虽达成框架性协议，但关键关税议题仍存悬而未决之 处，这一阶段性成果已显著缓解了四、五月贸易争端高峰期的市场恐慌情绪。地缘政治风险成为新的价格 驱动因素——中东局势紧张推动布伦特原油价格突破75美元/桶关口，能源类大宗商品的领涨效应逐步向工 业金属、农产品等板块传导。值得注意的是，框架协议中"贸易休战"条款形成的政策缓冲期，叠加地缘冲突 引发的供给端收缩预期，共同构成了当前商品市场"宏观风险 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 以伊对攻力度加大，周二两市主要指数小幅调整。两市成交额 1.20 万亿元。中证 | | | | 1000 | 指数收 6141 点，跌 6 点，跌幅-0.10%；中证 500 指数收 5750 点，跌 16 点， | | | | | 跌幅-0.29%；沪深 300 指数收 3870 点，跌 3 点，跌幅-0.09%；上证 50 指数收 2683 | | | | | 点，跌 1 点，跌幅-0.04%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是油气资源 ETF、能源 ETF、 | | | | | 金融科技 ETF、物流 ETF、石油天然气 ETF，跌幅居前的 ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 6 月 17 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘甲醇主力合约期货价格下跌 29 元/吨至 2417 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现 | | | | | 货价格上涨 95 元/吨至 2585 元/吨。多头持仓增加 1163 手至 48.12 万手，空头持仓 | | | | | 增加 45546 手至 53.37 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 87.98%，环比上涨 0.03%。海外甲醇开工率 66.86%， | | | | | 环比增加 2.01%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 65.22 万吨，较上一期数据增加 7.10 万吨。 | | | | | 其中，华东地区累库，库 ...