Group 1 - The report provides the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao Port supervision area [1][2] - As of December 8th, the Mongolian coal inventory at Ganqimao Port was 314.3 tons, a significant increase of 42.1 tons from the previous week [3] - The report also presents a table showing the inventory and its week - on - week change from August 24, 2025, to December 6, 2025 [8]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report date: December 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Li Fanglei, with qualification F03104461 and trading consultation qualification Z0021311 [1] - Contact: 19339940612 [1] Group 2: Sugar (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Sugar is rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [1] Core View - The external raw sugar futures price is mainly consolidating, with short - term oscillations and a long - term bearish outlook. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar market is facing downward pressure due to the increasing new sugar supply and weak overseas market fundamentals [1] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, SR601 closed at 5303 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.47%, and SR605 closed at 5233 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.57% [1] - **Important Information**: ICE raw sugar closed at 14.82 cents/pound on Friday with a daily decline of 0.60%. Sugar prices in various regions in China decreased. As of now, 50 sugar mills in Guangxi have started the 2025/26 season, 17 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 38.55 million tons, 14.2 million tons less than last year [1] - **Market Logic**: The external market is worried about Brazil's future supply and India's export expectations. The domestic market has limited fundamental news, and the new sugar listing speed is accelerating [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in SR601 contracts, and close profitable long - call options at 5600 [1] Group 3: Red Dates (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Investment Rating - Red dates are rated as "Oscillating and Slightly Weak" [3] Core View - Although the purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased slightly due to reduced supply, considering the significant overall supply pressure, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [3] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: On Friday, CJ601 closed at 9175 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.61%, and CJ605 closed at 9320 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.75% [3] - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28.23% and a year - on - year increase of 135.16%. On Friday, 5 trucks of red dates arrived at Guangzhou Ruyifang, 1 more than the previous day [3] - **Market Logic**: The purchase price of Xinjiang grey dates has increased due to reduced supply, and the futures price has risen slightly. However, the overall supply pressure is significant [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold or partially close short positions in CJ601 contracts, and short - sell CJ605 contracts on rallies [3] Group 4: Rubber (Energy and Chemical Sector) Investment Rating - Natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber are all rated as "Oscillating" [4] Core View - Natural rubber is under pressure from Thailand's supply during the peak season, with weak cost support and a bearish short - term outlook. Synthetic rubber's BR futures price may be in a low - range operation [4] Summary by Directory - **Market Review**: As of December 5, RU2605 closed at 15065 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.17%, NR2601 closed at 12045 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.63%, and BR2601 closed at 10410 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.43% [4] - **Important Information**: Rubber prices in Yunnan and Hainan decreased. As of November 30, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 2.71% month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed [4] - **Market Logic**: Natural rubber has weak cost support and seasonal inventory accumulation. Synthetic rubber's downstream has a strong wait - and - see attitude due to sufficient raw material supply expectations [4] - **Trading Strategy**: The active RU contract is expected to move in the range of 14900 - 15270 yuan/ton, NR in the range of 11800 - 12200 yuan/ton, and BR in the range of 10200 - 10700 yuan/ton [4]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五夜盘螺纹热卷收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国 90 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均产能利用率 53.82%，环比上升 1.1 个百分点，同 | | | | | 比上升 0.43 个百分点。其中华东、华南区域小幅上升，华北、华中、西南区域微 | | | | | 幅下降，其余区域持平。 | | | | | 2、从东北建材资源南下整体情况来看，12 月东北螺纹南下计划量为 44 万吨，同比 | | | | | 减少 2.1 万吨、环比增加 2.9 万吨，盘线南下计划量 31 万吨，同比减少 0.9 万吨、 | | | | | 环比增加 7.7 万吨。 | | | | | 3、国务院总理李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究进一步做好节能降碳工作。会 | | | | | 议指出，要切 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The vegetable oil market is showing a differentiated trend. It is recommended to exit the long positions of rapeseed oil and enter a small number of short positions in the 05 contract. For soybean oil, exit the long positions as the pressure at the upper edge of the oscillation range increases. For palm oil, it is advisable to wait and see due to the unclear short - term direction. In the protein market, it is recommended to exit the previously - placed long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as the overseas protein raw material market is facing increased supply pressure and the 05 contract after the contract change may be under pressure and show weak oscillations [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On December 5th, the vegetable oil sector was generally weak due to the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory and rapeseed oil contract change. Rapeseed oil's near - month contracts had a large decline, followed by palm oil, while soybean oil mainly showed an oscillatory trend. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil had different changes in daily - on - daily comparison, with some increasing and some decreasing, and all contracts had an increase in positions [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On December 4th, US international crude oil futures closed higher. The 2025 Canadian rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons. Indian buyers locked in large - volume soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The November Malaysian palm oil production, export volume, and inventory had different changes. The US used more soybean oil for biofuel production in September 2025. The total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils increased weekly, monthly, and yearly. The spot prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, and the basis also decreased [1][2] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the expected increase in the new - year US soybean planting area pressured US soybean oil, while Indonesia's policy on palm oil indirectly benefited Malaysian palm oil, but the potential increase in November inventory was a concern. Domestically, the sufficient supply of vegetable oil raw materials and good inventory led to a weak soybean oil basis. However, the continuous losses in oil mill import and crushing profits made oil mills want to support prices. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and the increase in Canadian rapeseed production caused a sharp decline in the near - month domestic rapeseed oil contracts [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Enter short positions in palm oil. For soybean oil, exit long positions and enter short positions as the pressure at the upper edge of the oscillation range appears. Exit the long positions in the far - month rapeseed oil and enter a small number of short positions in the 05 contract. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract. Arbitrage: Cautiously hold the expanding spread of soybean and palm oil 05 contracts [2] 3.2 Protein Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On December 5th, the main contracts of the protein sector completed the contract change, and the new contracts mainly showed an oscillatory trend. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased in daily - on - daily comparison, and all contracts had an increase in positions [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - The 2026/2027 US soybean planting area is expected to increase. China resumed the soybean import licenses of three US companies. The Brazilian 2025/26 soybean sowing progress and expected output are known. The Brazilian soybean export volume in November was higher than last year. The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending November 27th, 2025, was known. The domestic import soybean, soybean meal, rapeseed, and rapeseed meal inventories had different changes. The spot prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased, and the basis also decreased. The soybean crushing profit and arrival cost are known [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the increase in the expected US soybean planting area and the increase in Canadian rapeseed production pressured the US soybean market. In the domestic spot market, oil mills and traders were reluctant to lower prices, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the off - season of aquaculture pressured rapeseed meal. The overseas protein raw material market has increased supply pressure, and the 05 contract after the contract change may be under pressure [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Exit the previously - placed long positions in the far - month 05 contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Provide pressure and support levels for each contract. Arbitrage: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4227.7 per ounce; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 0.15% at 958.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.67% to 13788 yuan per kilogram [1] - On December 5, the US dollar index fell slightly, closing at 98.98. COMEX gold fluctuated narrowly, and COMEX silver remained strong, hitting a new high and then falling slightly [2] Important Information - As of December 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.33 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1050.25 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is about 87% [1] - On the evening of December 5, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng had a video call with US Treasury Secretary Bezant and Trade Representative Greer, discussing in - depth and constructively about future practical cooperation and properly resolving concerns in the economic and trade fields [1] - On December 5, it was announced that the US core PCE price index in September rose 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected and previous values (both 2.9%); it rose 0.2% month - on - month, consistent with market expectations and the previous value [1] - Central bank data shows that China's foreign exchange reserves at the end of November were reported at $33463.72 billion. China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces, an increase of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the 13th consecutive month of gold purchases [1] Market Logic - The US ADP employment in November decreased by 32,000, the lowest level since March 2023. The initial jobless claims for the week ending November 29 were 191,000, the lowest in more than three years [1] - The US recruitment and departure rates decreased simultaneously, and the number of job vacancies decreased, indicating a "cold" state of weakened corporate expansion willingness and significantly slowed market liquidity [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December continued to rise above 80%, driving up precious metal prices. Silver reached a new high due to strong industrial demand, and the silver inventory of the Shanghai Gold Exchange has been falling for the past three months [1] Trading Strategy - The long - position of precious metals is strong, but there may be a short - term adjustment need after continuous sharp rises, and long - positions should continue to hold [2]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五两市主要指数在政策利好下震荡上行，券商板块领涨。两市成交额 1.72 万亿 | | | | | 元，温和放量。沪深 300 指数收 4584 点，涨 37 点，涨幅 0.84%；上证 50 指数收 | | | | | 3002 点，涨 27 点，涨幅 0.93%；中证 500 指数收 7097 点，涨 85 点，涨幅 1.21%； | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 7342 点，涨 93 点，涨幅 1.29%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是 | | | | | 卫星 ETF、金融科技 ETF、证券保险 ETF、工业有色 ETF ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 8 日 星期一 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国发布新版《国家安全战略》，本届美国政府将放弃此前追求全球霸权的理 | | | | | 念，转而加强在拉丁美洲的主导地位。美国将调整与中国的经济关系，以互惠平等 | | | | | 为原则，重振美国经济自主地位。不再将中东作为其外交政策的优先考虑对象。 | | | | | 2、从长远来看，最迟数十年内，部分北约成员国极有可能出现非欧洲裔人口占多 | | | | | 数的情况。与文明消亡这一更为严峻的现实前景相比，经济衰退显得微不足道。美 | | | | | 国将加大对其盟友内政的干预，优先考虑在欧洲各国内部培养反对派。 | | | | | 3、美国 ...

研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 本周国债期货主力合约多数为探底回升，多数品种周一周二周三横向波动，周四大跌，周五反弹，30年期品种前 四个交易日连续下跌、周五探底反弹，全周收盘30年国债收跌1.70%，10年国债跌0.04%，5年国债涨0.02%，2年 国债涨0.04%。 国债期货一周行情复盘 证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 30年期国债大幅回撤 多数品种震荡格局 2025年12月5日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 数据来源：wind，格林大华 国债现券到期收益率曲线变动 12月5日收盘国债现券到期收益率曲线与11月28日相比总体表现为上移。2年期国债到期收益率从11月28 日的1.42%下行2个BP至12月5日的1.40%；5年期国债到期收益率从11月28日的1.62%上行1个BP至12月5日 的1.63%；10年期国债到期收益率从11月28日的1.84%上行1个BP至12月5日的1.85%；30年期国债到期收益 率从11月28日的2.19%上行7个BP至12月5日的2.26 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 关注交易逻辑转变的时点 2025年12月5日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：纪晓云 联系方式：010-56711796 期货从业资格证号：F3066027 期货交易咨询号：Z0011402 钢矿观点 钢材：当前宏观政策真空期，产业逻辑主导市场。钢材市场供需双弱，因需求端未出现明显改善，冬储尚 未启动，谨慎看待螺卷上方空间，螺纹主力2605合约压力位3200，3050一线仍为强支撑。后期关注市场交 易逻辑，可能向宏观预期转变。 铁矿石：本周铁水日产232.3万吨，环比上周减少2.38万吨，同比去年减少0.31万吨。预计铁水产量降至 230万吨以下。本期国内铁矿到港下降，但发运积极。综合判断，预计铁矿继续维持震荡走势。主力2601 合约压力位833，支撑位750。后期关注主力合约移仓换月。 【交易策略】 1、交易逻辑未发生改变前，建议短线操作。 2、市场逻辑转变：12月将由产业驱动转向宏观预期，注意时间拐点。 重要资讯 3、2025年10月全国不锈钢粗钢产量362.44万吨，与2025年9月环比增加7.87万吨，增长2.22%。10月，中国不锈钢进口量 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - In the context of negative year - on - year PPI in China, the month - on - month PPI of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry has significantly rebounded, and the year - on - year growth has remained positive. The operating income of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry from January to October increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and the total profit increased by 14.0% year - on - year, which strongly supports the copper price. It is expected that the Shanghai copper futures price will face resistance at 90,000 yuan this week, and the volatility may increase [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2601 was 90,960 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous night - session closing price. The night - session closing price of the second - main Shanghai copper contract CU2602 was 90,980 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.22%. As of 06:00 Beijing time, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract HGZ25E was 5.2795 US dollars/pound (converted to yuan/ton), down 0.54% from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 8,227.7 US dollars/ton (converted to yuan/ton), with a decline of 0.13% [1] Important News - Ivanhoe Mines expects the annual output of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo to be between 380,000 and 420,000 tons in 2026, and it will increase by about 30% in 2027, reaching between 500,000 and 540,000 tons [1] - Glencore has lowered its 2026 copper production forecast from 930,000 tons to a range of 810,000 - 870,000 tons, mainly due to operational setbacks at the Collahuasi copper mine in Chile [1] - On December 3, Vale (VALE.N) expects its copper production to be 350,000 tons in 2026, and its copper production in 2025 was about 380,000 tons [1] - On December 3, Vale's subsidiary Vale Base Metals has signed an agreement with Glencore to jointly evaluate a brownfield copper mining development project in adjacent mining areas in the Sudbury Basin, Canada [1] - On December 2, a CICC research report stated that the consumables for AI electroplated copper powder in PCB are in a prosperous cycle, which will drive the rapid growth of processing fee profits in the copper powder industry. Copper balls and copper powder are electroplating consumables, accounting for 6% and 13% of the PCB cost respectively [1] - On December 2, Ivanhoe Mines officially launched the smelter of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine, the largest and most environmentally friendly in Africa, and will put the first batch of copper concentrates into the smelter before the end of the year to officially start the production of blister copper anode plates with a purity of 99.7% [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]