Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market has a weak fundamental adjustment. The probability of a December interest rate cut remains low, inventories are continuously increasing, and copper prices are weak. Future attention should be paid to the gradual release of US economic data [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Copper opened higher and closed lower today, showing strength during the session. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons, with an expected maintenance impact of 48,000 tons. However, the enterprises that underwent maintenance in October are gradually resuming production, and after the copper price rises, the production enthusiasm increases, and the output is expected to rise. The supply of scrap copper increases after the copper price rises, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources. In terms of demand, the increase in the copper price restricts downstream consumption. Traditional industries have pre - empted demand due to previous tariffs and national subsidy policies, and the recent trading atmosphere is weak. Except for the power and power battery new energy sectors, downstream demand performance is poor. In October 2025, China's exports of unwrought copper and copper products were 134,304 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%; imports were 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been continuously increasing and is currently 98.63% higher year - on - year [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, showing strength during the session. Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 70 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On November 19, 2025, the LME official price was $10,810/ton, and the spot premium was - $26/ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on November 17, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) is - $41.82/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.37 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 55,000 tons, a decrease of 3,369 tons from the previous period. As of November 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 111,200 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 157,900 tons, an increase of 4,450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 391,700 short tons, an increase of 4,771 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus situation. The decision of OPEC+ to increase production in December will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter, while the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year will be unexpectedly relieved. With the end of the consumption peak season and concerns about demand, along with OPEC+ accelerating production and increased exports from the Middle East, the supply - surplus pattern has become more of a consensus. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. Their next meeting is on November 30. This will intensify the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve it in Q1 2026 [1]. - The end of the crude oil demand peak season, EIA data shows an unexpected increase in refined oil inventories, but due to increased net exports, the decline in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly [1][4]. - US crude oil production is near the historical high. India may reduce imports of Russian oil due to a potential new tariff agreement with the US. US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers plan to suspend purchasing Russian oil for December delivery [1]. - Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries led to the suspension of crude oil processing at the Ryazan refinery in Russia, and European gasoline and diesel prices continued to rise. Tensions between the US and Venezuela, and armed conflicts in Libya have raised concerns about supply disruptions [1]. - Negative factors such as the end of the consumption peak season, the decline in the US October ISM manufacturing index, OPEC+ accelerating production, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market [1]. - OPEC has adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA expects that the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter will slow down while supply will further increase [1]. - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. There are also rumors of the Trump administration secretly coordinating a new framework to end the Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in the risk premium of Russian crude oil [1]. b) Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.66% to 455.5 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 451.8 yuan per ton and a maximum of 458.4 yuan per ton. The open interest decreased by 1,984 to 39,074 lots [2]. c) Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC月报 adjusted the global oil shortage in the third quarter of 2025 from 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and adjusted the global oil shortage in 2026 from 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. It maintained the forecast of global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while previously it was expected to peak in 2030. The IEA monthly report raised the global crude oil supply growth rate forecast for 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day to 3.1 million barrels per day, and for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day; it also raised the global crude oil demand growth rate forecast for 2025 by 78,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and for 2026 by 71,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day [3]. d) Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 14, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.426 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 603,000 barrels and 5.11% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 2.327 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 227,000 barrels; refined oil inventories increased by 171,000 barrels, against the expected decrease of 1.215 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 698,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was revised down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. OPEC+ October crude oil production decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week ending November 14 decreased by 28,000 barrels per day to 13.834 million barrels per day, still near the historical high [4]. e) Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.641 million barrels per day, a 1.23% increase compared to the same period last year, changing from lower to higher than the same period last year [4]. - US gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.54% to 8.528 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.839 million barrels per day, a 1.21% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 3.38% to 3.882 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.798 million barrels per day, a 0.20% increase compared to the same period last year. The decline in gasoline and diesel demand led to a 2.95% decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures prices opened low and closed flat, while spot prices continued to rise. With sufficient pending orders from factories, short - term prices are expected to be stable with an upward bias. Although high daily production suppresses the upside of the futures market, improved downstream demand and positive market sentiment have led to a continuous rebound in the futures market. Overall, urea prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, but caution is advised regarding price corrections at high levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Period - Spot Market Futures - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1661 yuan/ton, opened low and moved high, closed flat at 1665 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.00%. The trading volume was 245,423 lots, a decrease of 3,667 lots. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 419 lots, and short positions decreased by 1,062 lots [2]. Spot - Spot prices continued to rise. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1,550 to 1,600 yuan/ton, with most increases between 10 and 20 yuan/ton, and the highest price was in Hebei [1][5]. Warehouse Receipts - On November 20, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. 2. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both rose today. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis for the January contract was - 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [8]. Supply - On November 20, 2025, the national daily urea production was 207,100 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 85.34% [11]. Inventory and Orders - As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4372 million tons, a decrease of 46,400 tons from the previous week, a 3.13% decrease. The pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.12 days, a decrease of 0.59 days from the previous period, a 7.65% decrease [12]. Downstream - From November 15 - 21, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 34.61%, an increase of 4.29 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.2%, an increase of 4.72 percentage points from the previous week [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of the plastic industry remains unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and downstream peak seasons, it is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [1][4]. - The end of the US government shutdown and the strengthening of refined oil crack spreads in Europe and the US led to a rebound in crude oil prices after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently. The agricultural film peak season is coming to an end, downstream operating rates are falling, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,779 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 11,929 lots to 516,737 lots [2]. Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,750 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $720 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply is increasing, with the overall supply - demand pattern unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost and season, it is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to about 25.5% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, after the end of the US government shutdown, the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continued to strengthen, and the crude oil price rebounded after the decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus became more widely recognized, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently. The downstream is in the off - season, and the follow - up of orders such as plastic weaving is limited, with no large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited impact on the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated, with a minimum price of 6,368 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 6,431 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 6,400 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.34%. The position volume decreased by 2,378 lots to 617,955 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions were stable. The drawstring was quoted at 6,200 - 6,560 yuan per ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical increased the PP enterprise operating rate to about 81.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PP downstream operating rate rose 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] 3.4 Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: November 20, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - As of October 29, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. LU fuel oil and coking coal dropped over 3%, while pure benzene rose over 2%. Different futures varieties have their own supply - demand fundamentals and market trends, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends, except for urea which is expected to be slightly stronger [5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1. Overall Futures Market - **Price Movement**: As of October 29, domestic futures main contracts were mixed. LU fuel oil, coking coal dropped over 3%, industrial silicon, glass, etc. dropped over 2%. Pure benzene rose over 2%, and styrene, eggs, apples rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while some treasury bond futures rose [5][6]. - **Fund Flow**: As of 15:25 on November 20, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (3.693 billion), SSE 500 2512 (2.605 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.334 billion), and flowed out of Shanghai gold 2512 (2.804 billion), ten - year treasury bond 2512 (852 million), thirty - year treasury bond 2512 (748 million) [6]. 3.2. Specific Futures Varieties 3.2.1. Copper - **Supply**: In November, 5 smelters are expected to be under maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. But production may increase as some enterprises resume production in October. Higher copper prices lead to more scrap copper supply, making up for the shortage of copper ore resources [8]. - **Demand**: Higher copper prices limit downstream consumption. Except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. In October 2025, China's unforged copper and copper product exports were 134,304 tons, up 67.8% year - on - year, and imports were 440,000 tons, down 13.5% year - on - year [8]. - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory has been continuously increasing, currently 98.63% higher year - on - year. The copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. 3.2.2. Lithium Carbonate - **Supply**: Ningde Times' production is expected to resume after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 14, the weekly production rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher year - on - year [10]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales increased by 21.1% and 20% year - on - year respectively. The market is optimistic about energy storage demand. As of November 14, lithium carbonate inventory decreased for several weeks, and the warehouse receipt quantity has dropped significantly [10]. - **Price Trend**: After several days of increase, the price increase has slowed down. Wait for further verification of demand [10]. 3.2.3. Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC + eight countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, and suspend production increase in Q1 2024. The US crude oil production is at a high level. Geopolitical issues may cause supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya, but overall, the supply is in an oversupply situation [11]. - **Demand**: The peak demand season is over, and the EIA data shows that refined oil inventories have increased unexpectedly. The market is worried about demand as the US ISM manufacturing index has declined for eight consecutive months [11]. - **Price Trend**: The price is expected to be weak and volatile [11][13]. 3.2.4. Asphalt - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt production rate decreased to 29.0%. In November, the expected production is 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 16.9% month - on - month and 11.0% year - on - year. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residue oil, and the production rate will remain low [14]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand will further weaken as the cold wave comes and road construction ends in the north, and the increase in southern projects is limited [14]. - **Price Trend**: The futures price is expected to be weak and volatile [14]. 3.2.5. PP - **Supply**: On November 20, the PP enterprise production rate increased to about 81.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawing increased. New capacity has been put into operation, and there are more maintenance devices recently [15][16]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving orders are limited, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement [15][16]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be weak and volatile under the unchanged supply - demand pattern [16]. 3.2.6. Plastic - **Supply**: On November 20, the plastic production rate remained at about 89%. New capacity has been put into operation [17]. - **Demand**: The PE downstream production rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The agricultural film is in the late peak season, and the packaging film orders are decreasing [17]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be weak and volatile recently [17]. 3.2.7. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC production rate decreased to 78.51%. New capacity has been put into operation, and some maintenance devices are about to end [19]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate is low. The concern about exporting to India has been alleviated, but the anti - dumping duty is about to be implemented, and the BIS policy has limited impact [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is still high, and the inventory pressure is large [19]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be weak and volatile recently [19]. 3.2.8. Coking Coal - **Supply**: In October, China's coal imports decreased. The production of domestic raw coal and coking coal increased. The anti -内卷 policy is expected to keep the supply in a tight - balance pattern [20]. - **Inventory**: Mine and coking enterprise inventories are decreasing, while steel mill inventories are increasing [20]. - **Demand**: Coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has decreased due to slow price increases and increased losses. Steel mill production and hot metal output have increased [20]. - **Price Trend**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the supply - demand has become loose. Follow - up attention should be paid to the end - of - year production restrictions [20][21]. 3.2.9. Urea - **Supply**: The production of upstream factories is resuming, and the daily production is over 200,000 tons, which suppresses the upward space of the futures price [22]. - **Demand**: The downstream storage demand provides support. The compound fertilizer factory production rate has increased, and other industrial demands such as melamine have also increased [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory has been continuously decreasing [22]. - **Price Trend**: It is expected to be slightly stronger with volatile trends [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report offers a snapshot of the overnight market performance across multiple sectors, including significant price movements in commodities, macroeconomic developments, and corporate news. It also presents forecasts and outlooks for various industries, highlighting potential opportunities and challenges. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.29% at $4078.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.08% at $51.07 per ounce [4]. - The U.S. oil main contract was at $59.41 per barrel; the Brent crude main contract fell 1.88% to $63.67 per barrel [5]. - Most London base metals rose, while LME lead fell 0.40% to $2015.50 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures main contracts mostly declined, with fuel oil and LU fuel down over 3%, and cotton and cotton yarn slightly up [6]. 3.2 Important News 3.2.1 Macroeconomic News - The Ministry of Finance advanced the budget for some central - fiscal urban affordable housing project subsidies in 2026 [9]. - The EU plans to establish a central agency for key mineral procurement and reserves [9]. - From November 1 - 16, the new - energy retail penetration rate of the national passenger - car market was 62.5%, and the wholesale penetration rate was 60.6% [10]. - The Dutch economic minister suspended the intervention in Nexperia [10]. - The White House hopes to reach a framework to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict by the end of this month [10]. - The U.S. trade deficit in August narrowed significantly, but trade may still drag down economic growth in Q3 [12]. - Details of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan were exposed, with Ukraine possibly "leasing" part of its territory to Russia [12]. - Most Fed officials think policy will be further relaxed over time, but some are not sure about a December rate cut [13]. - Traders expect the Fed to pause rate cuts in December after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics decided not to release the October employment report [14]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - As of November 15, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory increased, while gasoline and kerosene inventories decreased, and the refinery's average operating rate was 89.9% [16]. - Germany's natural gas storage capacity at the start of the heating season was 75%, lower than expected [17]. - As of November 18, domestic asphalt shipments increased by 2.2% week - on - week [19]. - As of November 17, the total refined - oil inventory in the UAE's Fujairah Port decreased [19]. - As of November 19, China's methanol port inventory decreased [19]. - Ukraine obtained support and gas supply guarantees during President Zelensky's visits [19]. - Russia's 2025 oil production forecast remains at 510 million tons, and it will adhere to the OPEC+ agreement [20]. - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports in September reached a seven - month high [20]. - U.S. distillate and gasoline inventories increased, and strategic petroleum reserves also rose, while demand decreased [20]. 3.2.3 Metal Futures - An Indonesian aluminum plant plans to start trial operation in mid - December [23]. - The non - ferrous metal industry maintained reasonable growth, with a 4.0% year - on - year increase in added value in October [23]. - The platinum market may balance in 2026, with a deficit in 2025 [23]. - A regenerative lead smelter in East China failed to renew its hazardous - waste business license [24]. - Chile raised its copper - price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [24]. 3.2.4 Black - Series Futures - As of November 19, national building - material and hot - roll production increased, while inventories decreased and apparent demand increased [27]. - An Anjia Mining in Guizhou resumed production [28]. - Brazil's steel production and sales in October decreased year - on - year [29]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - As of November 14, CBOT soybean and corn deliverable inventories changed compared to the previous week and the same period last year [31]. - Ukraine will not restrict wheat exports in the 2025/26 season, with an expected export volume of 17 million tons [32]. - In Kashgar, the jujube harvest progressed, and prices were in a certain range [32]. - Malaysian companies' palm - related production data for October were reported [34]. - Brazil's November soybean, bean - meal, and corn export volume forecasts were raised [34]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast was lowered [34]. - S&P Global Energy expects U.S. corn planting area to decrease and soybean planting area to increase in 2026 [35]. 3.3 Financial Market 3.3.1 Financial - A - shares fluctuated with reduced volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18%, and bank stocks strengthened [37]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.38%, and southbound funds had net purchases [38]. - The CSRC optimized the ETF registration and listing review process [39]. - Foreign institutions are optimistic about the long - term value of the Chinese stock market and have increased research and positions [39]. - A - share company major shareholders' cumulative share - increasing amount this year reached a three - year high [40]. - CICC plans to absorb and merge Dongxing Securities and Cinda Securities [40]. - Kuaishou's Q3 revenue and profit increased, and its e - commerce GMV rose [40]. 3.3.2 Industry - The second - hand housing market in key cities may see a volume recovery in November but face pressure year - on - year [42]. - The organic - silicon industry may implement production cuts in early December [42]. - The Chinese vaccine industry association proposed an anti - "involution" competition initiative [42]. - The photovoltaic and energy - storage industry advocated capacity optimization and industry self - governance [43]. - Memory prices are expected to rise about 50% by Q2 2026 [43]. 3.3.3 Overseas - The Fed had a serious divergence on rate cuts in October, and some officials thought a December rate cut might be appropriate [44]. - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will include the data in the November report [46]. - The U.S. and Saudi Arabia signed an AI strategic partnership agreement with $270 billion in deals [46]. - The U.S. trade deficit in August narrowed by 24% [46]. - The UK's October CPI rose 3.6%, and the market expects a pre - Christmas rate cut [47]. - The EU plans to establish a central agency for key - mineral procurement and reserves [48]. 3.3.4 International Stock Markets - U.S. major stock indexes rose slightly, and most Chinese concept stocks fell [49]. - European stock markets had mixed performance, with investors awaiting the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement and Nvidia's earnings [50]. - South Korea will introduce incentives for small and medium - sized investors and prevent exchange - rate fluctuations [51]. 3.3.5 Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, supported by central - bank gold purchases and Fed policy uncertainty [52]. - Oil prices fell due to increased U.S. refined - oil inventories and geopolitical risk mitigation [52]. - Most London base metals rose [52]. - Russia's oil production is not affected by sanctions, and its 2025 production forecast remains unchanged [53]. - The platinum market is expected to have a shortage in 2025 and a slight surplus in 2026 [53]. 3.3.6 Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [55]. - The Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euros of sovereign bonds in Luxembourg [55]. - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank will conduct treasury - cash fixed - deposit tenders [56]. - Hong Kong will optimize the "Swap Connect" and explore the south - bound "Swap Connect" [56]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, and Japanese government bonds faced a selling wave [56]. 3.3.7 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose during the day and fell at night, and the dollar index rose [58].

Hot News - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October employment report and will incorporate non - farm employment data into the November report. The November report will be released on December 16 [2] - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak stated that the latest sanctions from the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production, and Russia maintains its annual oil production forecast at 510 million tons, adhering to the OPEC+ agreement [2] - As of the week ending November 19, national building material production was 4.4629 million tons, up 100,300 tons from last week; total inventory was 9.0549 million tons, down 490,500 tons; apparent demand was 4.9534 million tons, up 289,100 tons. National hot - rolled coil production was 4.1258 million tons, up 10,900 tons; total inventory was 4.5417 million tons, down 60,600 tons; apparent demand was 4.1864 million tons, up 27,600 tons [2] - According to the UK Telegraph, under a US - proposed conflict - ending plan, Ukraine may be forced to "lease" part of its territory to Russia. The Trump administration's agreement would make Kiev give up control of the eastern Donbass region while retaining legal ownership, and Russia would pay an undisclosed rent for actual control [2] - An East China medium - large recycled lead smelting enterprise's application for renewing the hazardous waste business license was rejected due to incomplete transformation and installation of the MVR facility in its sewage treatment station, not meeting relevant regulations [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and crude oil [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 3.38% increase, precious metals 29.01%, oilseeds and fats 9.93%, non - ferrous metals 23.10%, soft commodities 2.67%, coal - coke - steel - ore 12.74%, energy 2.96%, chemicals 11.02%, grains 1.22%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.97% [4] Position Changes - The document shows the recent five - day position changes of commodity futures sectors, but specific data is not described in text [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% daily, the SSE 50 rose 0.58%, the CSI 300 rose 0.44%, the CSI 500 fell 0.40%, the S&P 500 rose 0.38%, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.38%, the German DAX rose 0.13%, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.34%, and the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.47% [6] - In the fixed - income market, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell 0.06%, the 5 - year fell 0.03%, and the 2 - year fell 0.03% [6] - In the commodity market, the CRB commodity index fell 1.36%, WTI crude oil fell 1.99%, London spot gold rose 0.26%, LME copper rose 0.77%, and the Wind commodity index rose 2.41% [6] - Other assets: the US dollar index rose 0.53%, and the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged [6]

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1640 1630 10 河南 1630 1610 20 山东 1630 1610 20 山西 1500 1490 10 江苏 1610 1600 10 安徽 1620 1600 20 黑龙江 1720 1690 30 内蒙古 1700 1680 20 河北东光 1630 1610 20 山东华鲁 1610 1600 10 江苏灵谷 1650 1640 10 安徽昊源 1600 1580 20 山东05基差 -147 -127 -20 山东01基差 -165 -148 -17 河北05基差 -127 -97 -30 河北01基差 -145 -118 -27 1-5价差 75 75 0 5-9价差 -18 -21 3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 7183 7183 0 中东FOB 377.5 377.5 0 美湾FOB 382.5 382.5 0 埃及FOB 490 490 0 波罗的海FOB 377.5 377.5 0 巴西CFR 421.5 421.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z000077 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Previously, the increase in costs and the peak season of downstream demand drove the price of plastics to rebound. However, with the overall supply - demand pattern remaining unchanged, it is expected that plastics will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 19, the overhauled units such as full - density units of Ningxia Baofeng restarted, and the plastic operating rate rose to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the orders for packaging film continued to decline slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price rebounded after a decline, but the supply surplus pattern limited its increase. New production capacities were put into operation, and downstream enterprises had insufficient purchasing willingness. Traders were cautious about the future market and actively sold goods at reduced prices. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards, with a minimum price of 6781 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6838 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6833 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.22%. The position volume decreased by 19,678 lots to 528,666 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6950 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 19, the overhauled units such as full - density units of Ningxia Baofeng restarted, and the plastic operating rate rose to around 89%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the orders for packaging film continued to decline slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 720 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by 5 US dollars/ton to 730 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]