【冠通期货研究报告】 成交氛围回暖 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 23 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内上涨。受期货反弹影响，上游工厂报价反弹， 市场成交氛围开启好转。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多 在 1500-1540 元/吨，低端价格上涨 10-20 元/吨。基本面来看，前期停车企业装 置逐渐复产，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端煤炭价格走强，前期尿素 价格下跌至水煤浆成本线后出现反弹，天然气企业连续亏损，中原大化已因亏损 问题而检修停车，即将进入供暖季节，预计天然气企业开工后续成下降趋势。需 求端，随着天气转好，小麦播种工作逐渐开启，下游逐渐拿货，复合肥工厂本期 增加开工负荷，环比提升 3.53%附近，同比去年偏低 2.03%，且成品库存依然在 持续去化阶段，东北地区开工或有推迟，工厂开工率增速或较前期放缓。目前正 处于库存累库阶段，但本期库存增加较上期缓慢。整体来说，秋季肥需求继续推 进，市场氛围开始好转，期现均有改善，目前基差依然贴水，农需支撑下，盘面 震荡偏强为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1628 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内上涨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月23日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少5.94个百分点至76.69%，PVC开工 率减少较多，但仍处于近年同期偏高水平。国庆节后归来，PVC下游恢复幅度较大，PVC下游开工超 过国庆节前水平，但仍处于历年同期偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执 行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中 中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。不过，近期出口价格下降后，反 倾销税还未执行，9月出口仍较好，目前出口签单暂未明显走弱。上周社会库存略有减少，目前仍偏 高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅 仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回落， 仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年 偏高。同时新增产能上，50万吨/年的万华化学8月份已经量产，40万吨 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1590 1580 10 河南 1550 1540 10 山东 1550 1540 10 山西 1480 1460 20 江苏 1550 1540 10 安徽 1560 1560 0 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1560 1560 0 山东华鲁 1560 1560 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1560 1550 10 山东05基差 -142 -125 -17 山东01基差 -179 -158 -21 河北05基差 -102 -95 -7 河北01基差 -139 -128 -11 1-5价差 73 75 -2 5-9价差 -37 -33 -4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 5484 5556 -72 中东FOB 373.5 373.5 0 美湾FOB 376.5 376.5 0 埃及FOB 432.5 432.5 0 波罗的海FOB 370 370 0 巴西CFR 422.5 422.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - As of the close on October 23, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with coking coal up over 5%, coke, SC crude oil, and lithium carbonate up over 4%, and fuel oil and eggs up over 3%. In terms of declines, rapeseed and palm oil fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and SSE 500 2512 had capital inflows, while AU 2512, M 2601, and AG 2512 had outflows [6] - The prices of copper, lithium carbonate, and coking coal are expected to be strong, while the prices of crude oil, asphalt, PP, plastic, PVC, and urea are expected to fluctuate, with crude oil in a supply - surplus pattern [8][10][20] Summary by Catalog Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 23, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose, with some falling. Stock index futures rose, and treasury bond futures fell. As of 15:17 on October 23, some contracts had capital inflows, and some had outflows [6] Market Analysis Copper - In September 2025, China's refined copper production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The total output from January to September increased year - on - year. Copper mine disruptions limit price declines, and the supply is expected to be tight. Although the downstream acceptance of high prices is low, demand has rigid support. Overall, copper prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [8] Lithium Carbonate - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose. The supply and demand are both strong. The supply is growing steadily, and demand is strong due to the downstream battery industry. Although demand may decline slightly next month, the price is expected to be supported and fluctuate strongly in the short term [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ will increase production in November, which will increase supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, and the inventory has increased. Although the price has fallen significantly since October, it is expected to rebound due to factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations and US sanctions on Russian oil companies [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease slightly in October. The downstream demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The asphalt basis has declined recently. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14] PP - The downstream and enterprise开工 rates of PP are at relatively low levels. The cost has increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices. Although the downstream is in the peak season, the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate has increased slightly. The downstream is in the peak season, but the demand is less than expected. The cost has increased due to the rebound of crude oil prices. Plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [17] PVC - The PVC开工 rate has decreased, and the downstream recovery is significant but still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is high. Although the cost has increased, PVC is expected to fluctuate [18][19] Coking Coal - The coking coal price is strong. The supply is short due to production control and import reduction. The demand has rigid support, and the price is expected to be supported by demand [20][21] Urea - The urea futures price rose. The cost has increased, and the demand is improving due to the start of wheat sowing. The market atmosphere is getting better, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [22]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is showing an oscillating upward trend. The supply is at a relatively high level, but there are plans to reduce production. The demand is affected by factors such as project progress, weather, and funds. The crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level, and the basis in Shandong has decreased from a high level. It is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.004 million tons (0.1%) month-on-month and an increase of 0.35 million tons (15.0%) year-on-year. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the asphalt output will decrease but still remain high [1]. - Demand: After the National Day holiday, the national shipment volume increased by 14.48% to 253,300 tons week-on-week, at a neutral to low level. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas. The demand is affected by project rush in the north, cooling in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and funds [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract rose 2.31% to 3,277 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,236 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,300 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 7,848 to 194,697 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,340 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract fell to 53 yuan/ton, at a neutral to high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt in Shandong and East China increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. From January to September, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, and the infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) increased by 1.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to September, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with the growth rate dropping by 0.1 percentage point from January to August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but it was 233.5 billion yuan less than the same period last year due to a high base [4]. Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [5].

早盘速递 2025/10/23 热点资讯 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-10-22 2025-10-21 2025-10-20 2025-10-17 2025-10-16 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | -0.07 | 0.80 | 16.77 | | | | 上证50 | 0.09 | 0.71 | 12.12 | | | | 沪深300 | -0.33 | -1.04 | 16.71 | | | | 中证500 | -0.80 | -3. ...

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends, important news, and financial market conditions across various sectors, including commodities, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It analyzes the impact of geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data on market movements. Summary by Category Overnight Market Trends - **Commodity Futures**: US oil and Brent crude rose due to expected sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude inventories. International precious metals also increased, supported by multiple factors. London base metals mostly rose, and domestic futures contracts had a mix of gains and losses [3][4]. - **Financial Markets**: A-shares had a narrow - range oscillation, while the Hong Kong stock market declined. The report also mentioned policy initiatives in Shenzhen and Hong Kong, as well as the investment outlooks of well - known fund managers [35]. Important News Macro News - Russia's Federal Council abolished the "Plutonium Management and Disposal Agreement" with the US. - From October 1 - 19, national passenger car retail sales decreased by 6% year - on - year but increased by 7% compared to the previous month. - Trump's peace efforts faced setbacks as Russia launched attacks on Ukraine. - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high in the first three quarters [8][9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The refined oil inventory in Fujairah Port, UAE, increased. - China's methanol port inventory rose. - US crude exports and production decreased, and commercial crude inventory declined. - The US sanctioned Russian oil companies [11][12][15]. Metal Futures - The new chairman of LBMA called for revitalizing the UK's gold futures trading. - Century Aluminum's subsidiary halted a production line due to a fault. - China's September refined copper and alumina production increased. - Polysilicon production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. - Environmental controls affected lead - related transportation in Hebei. - China's September industrial silicon production increased. - Angola's first large - scale copper mine is about to start production [17][18][21]. Black - Series Futures - Some coal mines in Wuhai and Qipanjing stopped production, and steel mills in Northeast China had mixed production status. - Inner Mongolia closed 4.3 - meter coke ovens and implemented cement production curbs. - Vale's iron ore production and sales increased in Q3. - National key steel product production, inventory, and demand data showed changes [23][26]. Agricultural Futures - Indonesia's biodiesel consumption increased. - US soybeans were stored instead of exported. - Malaysia's palm oil exports and production increased. - Russia lowered wheat export tariffs. - China's pork prices may have reached the annual low. - Brazil's soybean production, export, and crushing volume are expected to increase [28][30][33]. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares had a narrow - range movement with sector rotation. The Hong Kong stock market declined. - Shenzhen introduced a plan to promote high - quality M&A. - HKEX is collaborating on multiple projects with the mainland. - Well - known fund managers adjusted their portfolios [35]. Industry News - China released a new energy vehicle technology roadmap. - Small and medium - sized banks cut deposit rates. - The game version numbers were released. - China's geographic information industry is expected to grow. - Civil aviation industry data showed growth. - Nanjing introduced a housing provident fund policy for multi - child families [39][41]. Overseas News - US federal debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown continued. - Trump canceled a meeting with Putin, and the EU imposed new sanctions on Russia. - Japan plans new economic measures, and India may reach a trade deal with the US. - The Fed plans to relax bank capital requirements. - Japan's exports increased, and UK inflation data affected market expectations [44][49]. International Stocks - US stocks declined due to trade concerns and disappointing earnings. - European stocks had a mixed performance. - Singapore plans to support listed companies. - Tesla and IBM released their Q3 financial reports [50][51]. Commodities - Oil prices rose, precious metals increased, and base metals mostly went up. - Vale's iron ore production reached a high level [52][54]. Bonds - The domestic bond market had a narrow - range movement, and US bond yields declined. - Indonesia plans to issue RMB - denominated bonds, and SoftBank plans to raise funds through bond issuance [55][60]. Foreign Exchange - China's foreign - related payment and receipt scale reached a record high. - The RMB and other currencies had exchange rate fluctuations [61]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - A series of economic data will be released, including Japan's stock and bond transactions, China's RMB payment share, and various countries' inflation and consumer confidence data. - Multiple central bank events and important conferences are scheduled, such as China's central bank open - market operations and international industry conferences [64][66].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 22, 2025. Some commodities like asphalt and SC crude oil rose, while others such as沪金 and沪银 declined. Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals and market outlooks, with some expected to be in a strong - side or weak - side oscillation, and some suggest temporary exit for observation due to factors like upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 22, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, and some commodities like rapeseed, SC crude oil, etc. rose over 2%.沪金 and沪银 fell nearly 4%, and some like palm oil and rapeseed meal fell over 1%. In the stock index futures, most contracts declined, while in the bond futures, most contracts rose or remained flat. In terms of fund flow,沪金 2512, lithium carbonate 2601, and沪铝 2512 had fund inflows, while中证 1000 2512,中证 500 2512, and沪深 300 2512 had outflows [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Copper (沪铜)**: It opened low and moved weakly. Supply - side factors like copper mine accidents and low inventory limited the decline. Although the high price was resisted by the downstream, the export window was open and it was in the peak season, so the market was expected to be mainly in a range - bound oscillation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved strongly. It showed a pattern of strong supply and demand. With rising prices, production profit improved, and demand from the downstream battery industry was strong. However, demand was expected to decrease slightly next month, and it was expected to be in a strong - side oscillation in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + planned to increase production in November, which would increase supply pressure. The demand peak season ended, and inventory increased. Geopolitical risks decreased. The market was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation in the medium - to - long term, and it was recommended to exit the market temporarily and watch the Sino - US trade negotiation [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply was at a high level, with开工率 slightly rising. Demand was restricted by factors like funds and weather. With the upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the strengthening of the basis in Shandong, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 was low. Supply increased with new capacity coming on - stream, and although it was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工率 was at a medium level. Supply increased with new capacity. Although the agricultural film was in the peak season, demand was less than expected. It was expected to be in a weak - side oscillation [17]. - **PVC**: Supply开工率 decreased, but was still high compared to the same period in previous years. Export expectations weakened, and inventory pressure was large. With the lack of actual policies and high inventory, it was recommended to exit the market and observe [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and moved strongly. Supply was tight due to production control and environmental policies, and demand was supported by the peak season. It was recommended to pay attention to the impact of major meetings [20][21]. - **Urea**: It opened flat and moved strongly. Supply decreased slightly, and the cost increased due to rising coal prices. Demand was weak as the autumn fertilizer season ended. The market was expected to stop falling and stabilize [22].

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1580 1580 0 河南 1540 1540 0 山东 1540 1540 0 山西 1460 1460 0 江苏 1540 1550 -10 安徽 1560 1560 0 黑龙江 1620 1620 0 内蒙古 1610 1610 0 河北东光 1560 1560 0 山东华鲁 1560 1560 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1550 1550 0 山东05基差 -151 -142 -9 山东01基差 -185 -179 -6 河北05基差 -111 -102 -9 河北01基差 -145 -139 -6 1-5价差 70 73 -3 5-9价差 -34 -37 3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 5556 6057 -501 中东FOB 373.5 373.5 0 美湾FOB 376.5 376.5 0 埃及FOB 432.5 432.5 0 波罗的海FOB 370 370 0 巴西CFR 422.5 422.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation. The US government shutdown is nearing an end, reducing market uncertainties. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high copper prices in the domestic market, but the opening of the domestic copper export window eases the inventory accumulation pressure. It is the peak consumption season in October, and the fundamentals provide support. Copper mine accidents limit price declines. Although the previous trading session has broken through the long - term oscillation range and the market tends to be strong, the upward momentum is insufficient as demand support weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The supply - side disturbances in copper mines limit the decline of copper prices. The positive support from the previous copper mine accident in Indonesia to the market has not disappeared. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased this week, and the current inventory is significantly lower than that of last year. Smelter overhauls are still ongoing, resulting in low output levels. Currently, long - term contracts are in the preliminary discussion stage, and copper mine traders hold relatively few supplies. Although it is the peak season in October, the high copper prices driven by macro - stimulation are difficult to be accepted by downstream users, leading to a weak market trading atmosphere. After the recent price decline, the demand may improve month - on - month. The stable development of the domestic power grid and new energy sectors provides rigid support for demand, and the global industrial demand outlook is optimistic during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On October 21, 2025, the LME official price was 10,635 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 23 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3. Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.08 US cents/pound [8]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 36,600 tons, a decrease of 7,978 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,900 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 345,900 short tons, a decrease of 692 short tons from the previous period [11].