| 2025/10/24 | 一周走势 | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 指标 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河北 | 1600 | 1590 | 10 | 河南 | 1570 | 1550 | 20 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 1570 | 1550 | 20 | 山西 | 1500 | 1480 | 20 | 主流地区市场价 | | | | | | | | | | | | （元/吨） | 江苏 | 1570 | 1550 | 20 | 安徽 | 1570 | 1560 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑龙江 | 1620 | 1620 | 0 | 内蒙古 | 1610 | 1610 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 河北东光 | 1590 | 1560 | 30 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 24, 2025, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Some commodities like fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs had significant increases, while others like red dates and polysilicon declined. Stock index futures generally rose, and treasury bond futures mostly fell. Different commodities have different market trends and influencing factors, with some showing upward trends but facing pressure, some in a state of supply - demand balance, and others with uncertain outlooks due to various factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand fundamentals, and geopolitical events [7]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 24, domestic futures main contracts showed more gains than losses. Fuel oil, container shipping European routes, and eggs rose over 3%, international copper nearly 3%, and Shanghai copper and SC crude oil over 2%. Red dates fell over 4%, polysilicon over 1%, and rebar nearly 1%. Stock index futures rose, with CSI 1000 rising 2.41% leading the way, while treasury bond futures mostly fell, with the 30 - year treasury bond futures falling 0.24% the most. In terms of capital flow, Shanghai copper 2512 had an inflow of 2.504 billion yuan, while CSI 1000 2512 had an outflow of 5.183 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and went high, rising during the day. September 2025 refined copper production was 1.266 million tons, up 10.1% year - on - year and down 2.7% month - on - month. 1 - 9 months cumulative production was 11.125 million tons, up 10.0% year - on - year. Copper price is supported by rigid demand and expected tight supply, but the high price is hard for downstream to accept. The price trend is still upward but with pressure, so be cautious about chasing the rise [9][10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Battery - grade and industrial - grade prices both rose 600 yuan/ton. Supply is growing steadily, and demand from the downstream battery industry is strong. The inventory in September was significantly reduced, and the price is supported by fundamentals [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase production in November, increasing supply pressure. The demand peak season is over, but US refinery operations rebounded, and inventories decreased. The price is expected to rebound at a low level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: Supply decreased slightly in October. Downstream industry operations mostly rose, and national shipments increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased slightly. With the rebound of crude oil prices, the basis in Shandong has dropped significantly. It is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [14]. - **PP**: Downstream operations rebounded slightly, and the enterprise operation rate was around 80%. New production capacity was put into operation, and recent maintenance increased. Cost rose due to the rebound of crude oil prices. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operation rate was around 86.5%, and downstream operations rose. New production capacity was put into operation. The demand in the peak season was less than expected, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [17]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price rose. Supply decreased slightly, and downstream operations continued to rise. Export expectations weakened in the fourth quarter, and social inventory was high. New production capacity was put into operation. It is expected to oscillate in the near future [19]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened high and went high, oscillating strongly. Mongolian coal imports decreased, and domestic supply was short. Demand from coke enterprises supported the price, but downstream steel mills' profits shrank. Pay attention to major conferences and Mongolian coal imports [20][21]. - **Urea**: The futures price rose, and the spot market followed. Daily production decreased slightly, and the cost increased. Demand from compound fertilizer factories increased, and inventory accumulation was slow. The market is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to policy changes [22].

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.94 84.93 0.01 开工率 76.350 76.350 0.000 产量 74.06 74.05 0.01 产线条数 226 226 0 重质产量 41 41.55 -0.55 产量 112.8925 112.8925 0 轻质产量 33.06 32.5 0.56 厂内库存 170.21 170.05 0.16 库存 6661.3 6427.56 233.74 重质库存 93.45 94.07 -0.62 库存可用天数 28.3 27.3 1 轻质库存 76.76 75.98 0.78 库存可用天数 14.11 14.1 0.01 产销率 99.78 94.5 5.28 天然气利润 -120.56 -79.84 -40.72 氨碱法毛利 -32.4 -29.7 -2.7 石油焦利润 48.23 91.09 -42.86 联产法毛利 -161 -129.5 -31.5 煤制气利润 113.23 139.67 -26.44 基差 -50 -70 20 基差 18 43 -25 1-5价差 83 90 -7 1-5价差 148 137 11 品种套利 纯 ...

联系方式：010-85356618 下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 14423.59 312.65 9079.19 296.46 2519.4 40.03 239.9 84.71 89.94 47.62 6.00 上期 14278.27 315.72 8982.73 297.35 3045.8 39.97 240.95 84.27 90.33 55.41 3.50 周变动 145.32 -3.07 96.46 -0.89 -526.40 0.06 -1.05 0.44 -0.39 -7.79 2.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11094.96 1923.57 272.17 1132.89 本期 9240.62 5771.43 5935 上期 11229.2 1784.05 261.79 1003.23 上期 9208.11 5684 5869.73 周变动 -134.24 139.52 10.38 129.66 周变动 32.51 87.43 65.27 注:数据 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Urea Futures Basis Report [2] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [3] Group 2: Price Information - Urea Futures Prices: The main urea contract stabilized and rebounded. The January contract increased by 34 yuan/ton week-on-week to 1638 yuan/ton; the May contract increased by 35 yuan/ton week-on-week to 1710 yuan/ton; the September contract increased by 36 yuan/ton week-on-week to 1740 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot Prices: The overall weekly change in spot prices was between -20 and 20 yuan/ton. With the improvement of weather, agricultural demand gradually started, terminal sales improved, downstream factories started to purchase, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories rebounded, and the autumn fertilizer cleanup was in progress. However, the continuity of agricultural demand is expected to be short, and there is currently no significant upward driving force, limiting the upside of the futures market [4]. Group 3: Basis Information - Basis Weakening: The futures price increase was greater than the spot price increase, and the basis of the main contract weakened weekly. Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the basis of the 01 contract decreased by 44 yuan/ton weekly to -88 yuan/ton, the basis of the 05 contract decreased by 45 yuan/ton weekly to -160 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract decreased by 46 yuan/ton weekly to -190 yuan/ton [4]. - Regional Basis Data: The report also provides the basis data for different regions (Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei), including the latest basis, historical maximum, minimum, and average values [3]. Group 4: Spread Information - Term Structure: Urea maintained a contango structure with near-term contracts weaker than far-term contracts. The 1 - 5 spread was -72 yuan/ton, increasing by 1 yuan/ton weekly [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly influenced by geopolitical risks, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. Geopolitical tensions, especially between the US, EU, and Russia, have led to price fluctuations in the energy and precious metal markets. Meanwhile, in the financial market, A - shares and Hong Kong stocks showed positive trends, and multiple factors are driving the long - term investment value of the Chinese market. 3. Summary by Catalog Overnight Night - market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.91% at $4143.2 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.03% at $48.65 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and US fiscal policy uncertainty [4]. - Crude oil prices soared, with the US oil main contract up 5.56% at $61.75 per barrel and Brent crude up 5.38% at $65.96 per barrel, due to sanctions on Russian oil and a decrease in US EIA crude inventories [4]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum hitting a new high for the year due to supply concerns from an Icelandic aluminum plant's production cut [6]. Important Information - **Macro Information**: The EU's sanctions on Chinese enterprises have been opposed by China. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the importance of central enterprise planning. The Network Security Law draft addresses AI development, and the ecological environment code draft will be reviewed. The national electricity consumption in the first three quarters reached a record high [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Domestic soda ash production and inventory showed mixed trends. The inventory of float glass samples increased. Urea plant operating rates declined, and inventories rose. Singapore fuel oil inventories decreased, while US natural gas and East China port methanol inventories increased [11][13][15]. - **Metal Futures**: Goldman Sachs maintains a target price for gold in 2026. Antofagasta's copper and gold production increased in Q3. UBS sees value in silver investment. The global zinc market's supply surplus expanded, and the lead market shifted to a shortage in August [17][19][20]. - **Black - series Futures**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased. The production of rebar increased, and inventories decreased. Fortescue's iron ore production decreased in Q3. Steel inventories fluctuated, and the production of global and Chinese steel decreased in September [22][25]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy may be postponed. International and domestic palm oil prices declined, and the global soybean supply - demand situation changed [27]. Financial Market - **Finance**: A - shares and Hong Kong stocks closed higher. Foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese stock market and recommend investing in technology and anti - involution fields. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange has about 300 pending listing applications, and Neolix completed a large - scale financing [30][31]. - **Industry**: The application for car trade - in subsidies exceeded 10 million. A high - precision analog computing chip was developed. The scale of the bank wealth - management market increased. Express business volume and revenue grew. Guangzhou expanded the scope of housing vouchers. Samsung and SK Hynix raised memory prices [33][35]. - **Overseas**: Putin believes US sanctions will not have a major impact on the Russian economy. The US is considering supporting the quantum computing industry. US home sales increased, and South Korea may invest in the US. The central banks of South Korea and Turkey adjusted their interest rates [36][37]. - **International Stock Markets**: US, European, and Japanese stock markets showed different trends. Some companies such as Intel, United利华, and Volvo released their financial reports [40][41]. - **Commodities**: Similar to the overnight night - market trends, precious metals, crude oil, and base metals showed price changes [44][45]. - **Bonds**: The domestic bond market was weak, and the US and South Korean bond markets had new developments. The inclusion criteria for a Chinese bond index were adjusted [47][48][49]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The RMB's global payment share increased, and exchange rates of major currencies fluctuated [50][52]. Upcoming Indicators and Events - A series of economic indicators will be released, including consumer confidence, CPI, and PMI. Multiple important events such as central bank announcements, press conferences, and corporate listings are scheduled [54][57].

Group 1: Hot News - The Communique of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee was released, setting the main goals for economic and social development during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and long - term goals by 2035 [2] - Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia for Sino - US economic and trade consultations from October 24th to 27th [2] - The EU listed Chinese enterprises in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the EU to stop and vowed to safeguard Chinese enterprises' rights [2] - As of the week ending October 23rd, rebar production increased, factory and social inventories decreased for two consecutive weeks, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Production was 2.0707 million tons, up 59,100 tons or 2.94% from last week, and apparent demand was 2.2601 million tons, up 62,600 tons or 2.85% [3] - As of October 23rd, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, up 2.337 million heavy boxes or 3.64% week - on - week, increasing for 3 weeks after the holiday and reaching a 3 - month high, with a year - on - year increase of 16.99% [3] Group 2: Sector Performance - Key sectors to focus on: urea, lithium carbonate, eggs, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts: non - metallic building materials up 2.90%, precious metals up 31.27%, oilseeds up 9.82%, soft commodities up 2.71%, non - ferrous metals up 21.27%, coal, coke, steel and minerals up 13.31%, energy up 3.01%, chemicals up 10.94%, grains up 1.15%, agricultural and sideline products up 3.63% [4] Group 3: Sector Positions - Five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions are presented for different sectors including agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, etc. [5] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily increase of 0.22%, monthly increase of 1.02%, annual increase of 17.03% [6] - S&P 500: daily increase of 0.58%, monthly increase of 0.75%, annual increase of 14.57% [6] - Hang Seng Index: daily increase of 0.72%, monthly decrease of 3.31%, annual increase of 29.45% [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily decrease of 0.12%, monthly increase of 0.18%, annual decrease of 0.82% [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 0.89%, annual increase of 0.41% [6] - WTI Crude Oil: daily increase of 5.62%, monthly decrease of 1.12%, annual decrease of 14.09% [6] Other - US Dollar Index: daily increase of 0.03%, monthly increase of 1.14%, annual decrease of 8.80% [6] - CBOE Volatility Index: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 14.25%, annual increase of 7.20% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, but the price has dropped significantly since October. Recently, with the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the change in the US attitude towards Russia, the crude oil price is expected to continue to rebound at a low level. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory of US crude oil has increased more than expected, and the inventory of refined oil has decreased more than expected. The overall oil inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points. Russia has extended the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year, but its crude oil export volume remains high [1] - The end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payrolls data, and uncertainties in China - US trade have worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the crude oil export in the Iraqi Kurdistan region has restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main contract 2512 of crude oil futures rose 4.05% to 459.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 445.8 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 463.7 yuan per ton. The trading volume decreased by 3826 to 43,154 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. EIA has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and keep the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and kept the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. IEA has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, and the oil supply surplus has intensified [3] Inventory and Production Data - On October 17, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending October 10 increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventory decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in August was adjusted down by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The US crude oil production for the week ending October 10 increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, reaching a new record high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products has decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for gasoline decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared to the same period last year. The weekly demand for diesel decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared to the same period last year. The weekly supply of US crude oil products decreased by 11.48% month - on - month [5][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The cost has recently driven the plastics to rebound, but the plastics lack the momentum to rise on their own. It is expected that the plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 23, the restart of the maintenance device of Inner Mongolia Baofeng's full - density line 2 drove the plastics operating rate up to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. New production capacities were put into operation, and the cost increased due to the rise in crude oil prices. Sino - US economic and trade relations and the lack of anti - involution policies in the plastics industry also affect the market. [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6934 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7013 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6999 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.23%. The position decreased by 18375 lots to 531489 lots. [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most of the PE spot market rose, with the price change ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6810 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8930 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7230 - 8090 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - In terms of supply, on October 23, the restart of the maintenance device of Inner Mongolia Baofeng's full - density line 2 drove the plastics operating rate up to about 86.5%, currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92% month - on - month. The agricultural film entered the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory after the National Day increased by 270,000 tons compared with that before the holiday, and decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons on Thursday, 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat month - on - month at $770/ton and $780/ton respectively. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has pushed the price of PP to rebound, but PP lacks the internal momentum to drive significant price hikes. It is expected that PP will experience a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn dropped to around 25% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, due to the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States and the US sanctions on important Russian oil companies, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from its low level [1] - In terms of supply, new production capacities have been put into operation, and recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased [1] - Although the weather has improved and the downstream is gradually entering the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. After the National Day, the stocking demand has weakened periodically, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - China and the United States are charging special port fees on each other's ships, increasing concerns about economic growth. There are no actual policies for anti - involution in the PP industry yet, but anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of over - capacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6616 yuan/ton, the highest was 6710 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6691 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.27%. The position volume decreased by 14,771 lots to 618,484 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions increased. The price of drawn yarn was reported at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 23, new maintenance devices such as the first and second lines of Zhongjing Petrochemical Phase I were added, and the operating rate of PP enterprises dropped to around 80%, a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.09 percentage points to 51.85% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving remained flat at 44.26% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to slightly decrease, being slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 760,000 tons, which was 10,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation of petrochemicals during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $15/ton to $760/ton week - on - week [4]