早盘速递 2025/10/9 热点资讯 3.10月1日至8日（中秋国庆假期），累计全社会跨区域人员流动量预计24.32亿人次，日均3.04亿人次，同比增长6.2%。 4.美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文表示，自2025年11月1日起，所有从其他国家和地区进口至美国的中 型和重型卡车将被征收25%的关税。 5.2025年10月1日，国家统计局公布，9月中国制造业PMI为49.8%，环比上升0.4个百分点；非制造业PMI为50.0%，下降0.3 个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为50.6%，上升0.1个百分点，我国经济总体产出扩张略有加快。 重点关注 玉米、原油、棉花、沪铜、沪金 假期外盘表现 -0.62% 5.64% 3.09% 1.74% 4.17% 2.88% 1.41% 2.05% 2.74% 1.01% 0.24% 1.95% 1.02% 2.06% 1.72% 0.15% -2.86% 0.24% -1.95% 0.39% 0.57% 1.42% 1.00% 2.11% 6.72% 0.38% 0.78% -6% -3% 0% 3% 6% 9% NYMEX 原 油 NYMEX 天 然 气 CO ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/09 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.40%报 4060.60 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.95%报 48.44 美元/盎司。美联储会议纪要显示官员对货币 政策路径存在分歧，为黄金提供支撑。美国政府停摆及财政赤字问题加剧避险 需求，国际贸易紧张局势也利好黄金。 2. 美油主力合约收涨 0.92 ...

合息均来源于必开资格。我公司对这些信息的非确性的定整批不作任何促证。报告中的内容本意见优美参考，并不得此时报老日许买卖的出会就看到。家庭可以来没对我有这裡的来做到我们的人的一种意识的人类的手放去做到我们 。本届你仅将的定掌护依道，版权归还减算优利。未经我公司�面许可。任何批发中个人均不得以任何涉议监报、发朝、引用或者袭。时间、等表、刊发，预注 冠通期货研究咨询部 王 静, 执业资格证号F0235424/Z00 联系方式:010-85356618 6% 3% 2 119 1.01% 1.01% 1.01% 1.0.24% 1.42% -15% 1.02% 10% 0.57% 0.78% 0.3% 0.38% 0.249 0% -3% -୧% 给3W1 rdana 美元指数 kki TO 80 w-iTO80 冠生值 MEA ggaw 833W k |TO83 载TO83 最小1730 cess="ht 00S # 郭 新城达克拉 ZZ战四 피'가-1.08 AHICA 品N k Be Book on A 大宗商品 其他雷 要指标 十一假期外盘市场涨跌幅统计 研究咨询部 2025/10/8 | 板块 | 名称 | ...

第 1 页，共 3 页 中国官方制造业PMI雷达图--制造业景气度持续回暖，生产端的修复快于需求，出口景气度回升 数据显示，9月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.8%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气水平继续改善。从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为51.0%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为 48.8%，比上月下降0.1个百分点，低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.2%，比上月上升1.6个百分点，仍低于临界点。从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。生产指数为51.9%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，表明制造业生产扩张加快。新订单指数为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点，表明制造业市场需求景气 水平继续改善。原材料库存指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，表明制造业主要原材料库存量降幅继续收窄。从业人员指数为48.5%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明制造业企业用工景气度改善。供应商配送 时间指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料供应商交货时间持续加快。 ...

早盘速递 2025/9/30 热点资讯 1、中共中央政治局召开会议，研究制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划重大问题。会议决定，二十届四中全会于10月20 日至23日在北京召开。会议强调，"十五五"时期经济社会发展必须坚持高质量发展，以新发展理念引领发展，因地制宜发展 新质生产力，推动经济持续健康发展和社会全面进步；坚持全面深化改革，扩大高水平开放，持续增强发展动力和社会活力； 坚持有效市场和有为政府相结合，充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，更好发挥政府作用；坚持统筹发展和安全，强化 底线思维，有效防范化解各类风险，以新安全格局保障新发展格局。 2、中国家用电器协会发布倡议，坚决反对各类不正当竞争行为。严守竞争底线，杜绝无序低价竞争，坚决不搞低于成本价倾销 。反对夸大和虚假宣传，在网络上贬低同行企业、误导消费者。 3、美国总统特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡举行双边会晤。特朗普称，内塔尼亚胡接受了他提出的加沙和平计划。根据该计 划，如果冲突双方同意，"战争将立即结束"。以色列军队将撤回到商定边界，为释放人质做准备。 接受本协议后，将立即向 加沙地带提供全额援助。协议要求加沙将由一个技术官僚、非政治性的巴勒斯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and the situation of various industries. It includes price fluctuations in different futures sectors, policy developments in multiple industries, and the performance of financial markets at home and abroad, providing a multi - faceted view of the current economic and market situation [3][10][37]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Futures Market - Domestic futures主力合约跌多涨少，沪金涨1.02%，沪银涨0.66%，SC原油等跌超2% [3] - International agricultural futures多数下跌，美大豆跌0.44%，美豆粕涨0.15% [4] - International precious metal futures普遍收涨，COMEX黄金涨1.42%报3862.90美元/盎司，COMEX白银涨0.97%报47.11美元/盎司 [5] - International oil prices全线下跌，美油主力合约跌3.86%报63.18美元/桶，布伦特原油主力合约跌3.51%报66.79美元/桶 [6] - London basic metals多数上涨，LME期锡涨2.79%报35465.00美元/吨，LME期铜涨2.43%报10428.50美元/吨 [8] Important News Macro News - The Politburo will discuss the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23 [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting new policy - based financial tools worth 500 billion yuan for project capital [10] - Six ministries issued a plan for the machinery industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026, aiming for an average annual revenue growth of about 3.5% and revenue exceeding 10 trillion yuan [11] - As of September 29, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) dropped 10.7% [12] - The US Senate will vote on a bill to avoid a government shutdown, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will suspend operations during a shutdown [13] - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts, with some supporting and some advocating for maintaining a tight policy [13] - Trump announced a 20 - point plan to end the Gaza conflict, which Israel has accepted and Hamas will review [13] - Iran responded that European and American sanctions are unjust and illegal [14] Energy and Chemical Futures - China's nitrogen fertilizer industry faces challenges due to weak demand and price decline, and the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association will hold a market analysis meeting [16] - As of September 29, 2025, Jiangsu's pure benzene port inventory decreased 0.93% month - on - month and increased 35.90% year - on - year [16] - Saudi Arabia is expected to raise November crude oil prices for Asian buyers, with a possible increase of 20 - 40 cents per barrel [18] Metal Futures - PT Mitra Murni Perkasa's nickel smelter in Balikpapan is expected to be fully operational in early 2026, with an annual nickel processing capacity of about 21,000 nickel tons [20] - As of September 29, national zinc ingot social inventory decreased [20] - Indonesia's president ordered the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka - Belitung [21] - Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 [22] - In the 4th week of September 2025, Brazil's copper and aluminum ore shipments decreased compared to last year [22] - Gold prices exceeded $3830, and the value of US gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion [24] Black - Series Futures - From September 22 - 28, 2025, China's iron ore arrivals at ports decreased, while global iron ore shipments increased [26] - Three coal mines in Linfen will stop production for 3 - 7 days, affecting about 206,000 tons of raw coal [26] - In September 2025, the coking coal long - term agreement price increased [27] - Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control until the end of October, with weak market transactions [27] - In the 4th week of September 2025, Brazil's iron ore shipments decreased compared to last year [29] Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports [31] - As of September 26, domestic soybean crushing volume decreased, and it is expected to drop to about 1.8 million tons before the holiday [31] - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 3.2% [32] - US private exporters reported corn sales to Mexico and unknown destinations [32] - As of September 25, US soybean export inspection volume was 593,956 tons [32] - As of September 27, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 3.5% [33] - In the 4th week of September 2025, Brazil's soybean shipments increased compared to last year [35] - As of September 28, US soybean and corn's good - to - excellent rates and harvest rates were reported [35] Financial Market Finance - A - shares rose, with securities stocks surging in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.9%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.05%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.74% [37] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.89%, and southbound funds had a net sell of HK$1.654 billion [37] - Over 60% of private equity institutions plan to hold high positions during the holiday and are optimistic about the post - holiday A - share market [37] - The capital market is cracking down on illegal activities, and penalties have increased significantly during the 14th Five - Year Plan [38] - Stock - bond constant ETFs are expected to be launched this year [38] Industry - Six ministries issued a plan for the machinery industry's stable growth from 2025 - 2026 [39] - Beijing's real estate developers are accelerating the launch of new projects in September [39] - The China Household Electrical Appliance Association called for fair competition [39] Overseas - Trump's Gaza peace plan was accepted by Israel, and aid will be provided if the plan is implemented [41] - Trump threatened to impose high tariffs on overseas - made movies and furniture [41] - The value of US gold reserves exceeded $1 trillion, potentially releasing about $99 billion in funds [41] - Fed officials have different views on interest rates and inflation [42] - US existing home sales contracts in August increased by 4% month - on - month [43] - A Japanese central bank official called for policy rate adjustment [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks rose slightly, with the Dow up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq up 0.48% [45] - European stocks rose slightly, with the German DAX up 0.02%, the French CAC40 up 0.13%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [45] - The SEC chair promised to promote minimal regulation and may cancel quarterly earnings reports [45] - Goldman Sachs upgraded US stocks to overweight for the next three months [46] - Electronic Arts will be privatized for $55 billion [46] - AstraZeneca plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange [47] Commodities - International precious metal futures rose, with gold and silver prices increasing [49] - Oil prices fell due to increased supply expectations [49] - London basic metals mostly rose, and China's eight - ministry plan will support basic metal demand [49] Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, with 30 - year Treasury bond yields rising [50] - In August, China issued 980.1 billion yuan in local government bonds [50] - Shanghai is promoting the high - quality development of free - trade offshore bonds [50] - US Treasury yields fell due to economic concerns [52] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Monday, and the central parity rate was adjusted up [53] - As of the end of June, China's banking industry had a net external financial asset of $234.4 billion [53] - In the week of September 26, the RMB exchange rate index rose [53] - Switzerland and the US issued a joint statement on exchange rates [54] - The US dollar index fell on Monday, and most non - US currencies rose [54] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Various economic data such as PMI, inflation, and housing data will be released in different countries [57] - Central banks in Japan, Australia, the US, and Europe will have policy - related speeches and meetings [59] - There are corporate events such as the listing of new stocks and the release of financial reports [59]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 2025 年国庆假期持仓交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 9 月 29 日 近十年国庆假期外盘涨跌幅 冠通期货研究咨询部整理了近十年国庆期间外盘涨跌幅情况。从统计结果来 看，我们发现历史国庆假期间外盘商品涨跌幅度总体不大，大多数落在-3%到 4% 之间，但近几年的涨跌幅度变动加大，且个别品种的波动异常剧烈，例如近三年 ...

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货-宏观2025年四季报 美联储降息重启与反内卷 有望催生出一轮大宗商品的结构性牛市 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年9月29日 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点--回顾2025年宏观经济与资产表现 2025年，世界在动荡中，正式进入特朗普2.0时代。美国对外关税贸易战开打，对等关税重创全球，更搅动美国资本市场； 对内整顿清算驱赶移民，加剧两党斗争，引发多地游行动乱；同时，推动大漂亮法案，扩张财政给"富人"减税为"资本" 松 绑，提振美股却动摇着美国的信用根基，美债遭到穆迪下调信用评级，美元跌至年内新低，美债利率震荡高企。与此同时，中 国"针锋相对"奉陪到底，强硬对等反制多次谈判迎来转机，关税大幅下调，稀土出口管制更是掐住"七寸"，中美博弈从被 动应对转为主动出击。一季度DeepSeek震撼问世哪吒闹海，扭转了国内的悲观预期，演绎出了一轮科技股行情，东升西降的 ...

冠通期货-原油2025年四季报 地缘局势扰动下的增产兑现情况 研究咨询部 苏妙达 时间：2025年9月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 1 ⚫ 目前整体地缘局势仍在局部地区控制，未对原油出口产生更大的影响，不过，以色列袭击卡塔尔震惊国际，巴以停火谈判遥遥无期， 俄乌停火陷入僵局，伊朗核问题仍未解决，地缘局势仍将对原油造成扰动，尤其关注欧美是否会对俄罗斯原油、委内瑞拉原油等敏感 油的买家进行二次制裁。欧盟成员国中匈牙利和斯洛伐克仍有约20万桶/日的俄罗斯原油通过管道进口。若地缘局势升级影响原油生 产或运输，将刺激原油价格快速上涨。供给端，OPEC+坚持逐步增产以维护市场份额，10月仍将计划增产13.7万桶/日，目前实际增产 速度低于计划目标，不过近期其增产步伐在加速。由于三季度中东地区发电等需求强劲，OPEC+增产带来的供应冲击暂未到来，全球 原油库存还未有明显增加。当然也需注意除了沙特、阿联酋，其余OPEC+国家增产能力有限，OPEC+四季度实际增产仍将低于目标速度。 OP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3, urea prices were boosted multiple times by domestic anti - involution measures, urea export quota news, and the friendly relationship between China and India. After the domestic positive news was realized, domestic demand was weak, prices declined successively, and the spot decline was greater than the futures decline, gradually turning into futures premium [5]. - In the context of loose supply and demand, urea remains in a weak - running state. The spot price may remain oscillating at a low level around 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. A negative feedback mechanism may form where low prices attract orders, but downstream buyers' "buy - on - rising" behavior leads to sporadic downstream demand. For the futures market, the 01 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure level around 1,730 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract should focus on the 1,750/1,770 yuan/ton pressure levels. It is expected to mainly sell on rebounds in Q4 [6]. - On the supply side, affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, urea production decreased quarter - on - quarter. However, with subsequent capacity expansion and the resumption of factory operations, it is expected that after the production recovers, the daily urea output will still fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year due to high - level capacity [6][52]. - On the demand side, since Q3, the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but remained at the same level as previous years, without bringing new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined to digest high - level inventories. Industrial demand is relatively sluggish. Although the consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year, weak real - estate data has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the export quota is far less than the surplus in urea supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern [6]. Summaries by Directory Q3 Market Review - Urea prices in Q3 showed a complex trend. Initially, prices were affected by factors such as gas - head device复产, changes in downstream factory operating rates, and export news, resulting in fluctuations including price drops, rebounds, and high - level consolidations. Eventually, after the export positive news was realized, domestic demand was insufficient, and the market was under pressure to decline due to oversupply [9]. - Due to continued capacity expansion and high - level inventory, urea prices have been lower year - on - year this year and are currently at the lowest level in the same period. It is expected to fluctuate between 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton in Q4. After the price fell below 1,600 yuan/ton, downstream buyers started to increase purchases as the futures price rebounded. However, domestic demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, and a negative feedback mechanism may form [21]. - In terms of the term structure, urea maintains a contango structure with near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 1 - 5 spread remains in a discount state. With insufficient domestic demand and continuous inventory accumulation in the industry, the 01 contract oscillates at a low level. It is expected that the 1 - 5 spread will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [27]. - Currently, the basis is low, and the market is in a futures premium stage, suitable for selling hedging. After the basis strengthens, hedging supplies may enter the market, increasing market liquidity. The overall basis fluctuation is small, and it is expected to oscillate with a small amplitude in Q4 [37]. - According to Zhengshang Institute data, the settlement price of the 09 contract was 1,643 yuan/ton, with a 17 - yuan/ton premium for Henan spot and a 37 - yuan/ton premium for Hebei spot. The delivery volume of the UR2509 contract was about 4,274 lots, and the nominal delivery volume was about 85,480 tons, an increase of 3,204 lots compared to the 09 contract last year. The significant increase in futures delivery volume and registered warehouse receipts shows the loose market pattern of urea this year [41]. Supply Analysis - As of now, 3.12 million tons of new urea capacity have been put into operation in 2025, and another 3.56 million tons are expected to be commissioned in Q4. Although some backward capacity is being phased out, the overall capacity is still increasing [47]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative urea production was about 47.4467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2092 million tons (+9.74%). Affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, production decreased quarter - on - quarter. After subsequent capacity expansion and factory resumption, daily production is expected to fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year [52]. - According to Longzhong's statistics, about 63.8 million tons of capacity within a 20 - year operating cycle account for 84% of the total capacity. The impact of anti - involution measures on urea production is limited. Although coal prices have increased significantly due to anti - involution, coal - based enterprises still have profits, so the impact on urea is currently small. However, if coal prices continue to rise or urea prices fall, cost support may emerge [56][60]. - As of September 25, the gross profit of fixed - bed urea production dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production dropped to - 225 yuan/ton, while the water - coal - slurry production still had positive gross profit. The probability of large - scale production cuts by natural - gas - based enterprises is low due to long - term contracts with upstream suppliers [60]. - Historically, the urea price in the Shandong market was previously benchmarked against the fixed - bed production cost, and a rebound was likely when approaching the cost line. Since July 2024, the spot market price has gradually moved towards the water - coal - slurry cost, and currently, the cost support of water - coal - slurry is weak [65]. Demand Analysis - In terms of demand structure, agricultural demand is the most important, accounting for about 49%, and compound fertilizer demand accounts for about 25%, with the combined proportion close to 75% [74]. - It is estimated that the wheat sowing area in China in 2025 will be 355 million mu, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year. The corn sowing area will be about 44.269 million hectares, with a production of 298 million tons and a yield of 6,733 kg/ha, increasing by 1.08%, 2.76%, and 3.87% respectively compared to the previous year. The agricultural demand for urea is expected to increase steadily by about 5% in 2025 [78]. - The 2024 - 2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve project bidding document has adjusted the off - season storage rules. The proportion of urea in the reserve fertilizer has been reduced from not less than 30% to not less than 20%, and the single - target quantity in some provinces has been adjusted. The off - season storage enthusiasm is expected to increase this year, and the preparation time may be earlier and more dispersed than last year [80]. - Since July, the urea price has been oscillating downward, and the spread between compound fertilizer and urea has widened, leading to a recovery in factory profits. However, due to pre - emptive demand in the first half of the year and high finished - product inventories, factories are currently focusing on inventory digestion, and there has been no significant increase in the operating rate [85]. - As of September 26, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants was 35.27%, with an average operating rate of 40% this year. After the demand was pre - empted in the first half of the year, the operating rate has been insufficient. Although the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized in Q3, it has not brought new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined [90]. - Other industrial demands include urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, vehicle urea, and thermal power denitration. The consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year. However, the real - estate market has been under pressure in 2025, with a 12.9% year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment and declines in new construction, construction, and completion areas, which has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand [94]. - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 60.58%, and the average operating rate from January to September was 62%, flat year - on - year. Since August, the operating rate has been lower year - on - year. With the improvement of downstream demand and the resumption of previously - maintained factories, the demand for urea from melamine is expected to improve marginally [98]. - In 2025, the urea export policy has been relaxed, and domestic prices have been boosted multiple times since Q3. However, the export quota is far less than the surplus in supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. As the export window closes, the boost from exports is expected to fade [104]. Inventory - As of September 25, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1218,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 204,300 tons. The in - factory inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, about 20% higher year - on - year. Since April, the in - factory inventory has been oscillating upwards. With high production and insufficient domestic demand, inventory has continued to accumulate even with the gradual opening of exports. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase as there is no large - scale procurement demand for autumn fertilizers and the off - season storage is approaching [112]. - Since Q3, the number of days of pending orders for upstream urea factories has been higher year - on - year, mainly supported by export orders. As the export window closes, the shipment pressure of upstream factories may increase [112]. - India's urea inventory is currently at a relatively low level in recent years, and 6 - 9 months account for 70% of its annual demand. India has issued multiple tenders in Q3. The latest tender prices are lower than expected, and the domestic market has not been boosted, with the expected Chinese participation volume around 500,000 - 700,000 tons [114][116]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for urea from 2019 - 2025E, showing the production, export, various demand components, total domestic demand, and surplus volume in each year. In 2025E, the production is expected to be 69.76 million tons, exports 4 million tons, and the surplus is 130,000 tons [118].