Report Date - The report is dated August 12, 2025 [1] Industry News - The refined oil price may experience the fourth suspension this year as the international oil price rose first and then fell during the current pricing cycle, with the estimated increase in gasoline and diesel prices being only 20 yuan/ton, below the 50 yuan/ton adjustment threshold [3] - In July, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.243 million and 1.262 million units respectively, with year-on-year increases of 26.3% and 27.4%. New energy vehicle exports were 225,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 120% [3] - The Central Government Bond Registration and Clearing Co., Ltd. announced that it will no longer require overseas central bank institutions to provide a commitment letter for agreement signing to simplify the investment process for overseas central bank institutions in the market [3] - From August 4 - 10, 2025, the total arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 508,000 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.819 million tons, a decrease of 1.259 million tons; and the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 12.03 million tons, a decrease of 501,000 tons [3] - Recently, the "anti - involution" trend in the paper industry has led to four price increases by packaging paper manufacturers within a month. Hebei Chensong will increase the price of its original shafts and reel paper by 100 yuan/ton starting from August 11, cancel oral orders, require orders to be accompanied by payment, and will not accept prepayments [4] Plate Performance - Key areas to focus on include urea, lithium carbonate, coking coal, PP, and PVC [5] - Night - time performance: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.95%, precious metals by 27.12%, oilseeds by 12.60%, non - ferrous metals by 20.90%, soft commodities by 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore by 15.08%, energy by 3.44%, chemicals by 11.39%, grains by 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products by 2.89% [5] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [7] Large - Class Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.34% daily, 2.08% monthly, and 8.82% year - to - date; the S&P 500 fell 0.25% daily, rose 0.79% monthly, and 8.63% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.19% daily, 0.35% monthly, and 23.92% year - to - date, etc. [8] - Fixed - income: The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.01% monthly, and fell 0.39% year - to - date; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.11% monthly, and fell 0.66% year - to - date [8] - Commodity: The CRB commodity index rose 0.55% daily, fell 1.90% monthly, and 0.89% year - to - date; WTI crude oil rose 0.17% daily, fell 8.47% monthly, and 11.90% year - to - date [8] - Other: The US dollar index rose 0.24% daily, fell 1.78% monthly, and 9.42% year - to - date; the CBOE volatility index remained unchanged daily, fell 9.39% monthly, and 12.68% year - to - date [8]

冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究咨询部 冠通期货研究咨询部 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 | | | | 部 询 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 咨 | | | 研 | 究 | | 通 | 期 | 货 | | 部 询 咨 | | | | | 冠 | | | | 究 | | | | | | | | | 研 货 | | | | | | | | | 期 通 | 冠 | | | 4 铜 3 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 | 部 | | --- | | 铜 | | 询 | | 咨 | | 究 | | 研 | | 货 | | 部 | | 期 | | 询 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro Aspects**: Recent macroeconomic game has intensified, with tariff and trade frictions between the US and Japan, and the US and India escalating. Market risk aversion has increased, and changes in the number of senior Fed officials have affected the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut. The probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeds 90%, and the US dollar index is under pressure to oscillate at a low level, supporting the copper price. After the Russia-Ukraine talks last Friday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict may turn for the better, leading to a stronger copper price. However, the current domestic anti-involution measures have no new drivers, and the positive impact on the copper price is limited. Attention should still be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2][4]. - **Supply Aspects**: The maintenance of a smelter in Indonesia has been extended until mid-August. More copper concentrates have flowed into other countries. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. The increase in copper concentrate imports has provided smelters with abundant raw materials. Currently, copper production has not declined. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [2][4]. - **Demand Aspects**: Currently, it is the hot and rainy season, and the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good, but the construction and real estate sectors still have a negative impact. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [2][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - **US Manufacturing PMI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48, lower than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49, marking the fastest contraction rate in the past nine months, dragged down by continuous order reduction and intensified employment decline. The final value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in July was 49.8, lower than the previous month and the first time it fell below the boom-bust line since 2025 [9]. - **China's Economic Indicators**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.4 percentage point decrease from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2% respectively, a 0.4 and 0.5 percentage point decrease from the previous month. The national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month, turning from a decline to an increase, and remained flat year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, and decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, remaining the same as the previous month [15]. 3.2 Copper Price Trends - **Shanghai Copper**: Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillating and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 78,610 yuan per ton, the lowest was 78,030 yuan per ton, the weekly amplitude was 0.74%, and the interval increase was 0.11% [18]. - **LME Copper**: As of August 8, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +1.13%, closing at $9,700 per ton. The LME copper spot discount weakened, and the inventory accumulation trend of the exchange's copper inventory continued. The copper resources in the market were relatively more abundant than before the implementation of tariffs, resulting in a weaker spot discount [33]. 3.3 Copper Market News - **Chilean Copper Mine Accident**: On August 5, news reported that Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, was facing one of the most severe safety challenges in its history. After several days of emergency rescue, rescuers found the body of the last missing miner at the El Teniente mine, and all five miners trapped in the tunnel collapse accident on Thursday had died. This accident, which caused six deaths, was the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades and prompted the company to launch a comprehensive investigation [21]. - **Chifeng Gold's Project**: On August 7, Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) announced that its subsidiary's Laos Saiban SND gold-copper mine project had completed the first-phase resource exploration. According to the resource estimation report issued by SRK China based on the JORC standard, as of June 30, 2025, the project (porphyry gold-copper deposit) had proven mineral resources of 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 grams per ton and a gold equivalent metal volume of approximately 1.069 million tons. Drilling is planned to resume after the rainy season to upgrade the resource reserves [22]. 3.4 Copper Supply - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 18.24% and a month-on-month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year-on-year increase of 8.0%. As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 Chinese ports was 428,700 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous week [38]. - **Smelter Fees**: As of August 8, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was -$37.98 per dry ton, and the refining charge (RC) was -3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and recover. With the increase in copper concentrate imports, smelters have abundant raw materials, and currently, copper production has not declined. On the morning of June 27, 2025, the mid-year negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters set the TC/RC at $0 per dry ton and 0 cents per pound. Long-term contract orders are profitable, while spot orders are still at a loss. Smelters' production enthusiasm is currently acceptable [42]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 39,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%. Previously maintained smelters are gradually resuming operations, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August. In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 3.113 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [46][47]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year-on-year import volume, exceeding market expectations. The increase in the price difference between refined and scrap copper has led to a shortage of scrap copper supply, and more scrap copper rod enterprises have shut down their production facilities. Currently, affected by copper tariffs, there is a mismatch in the global scrap copper supply and demand, which may lead to a continued decrease in domestic scrap copper imports in the future [52]. 3.5 Copper Demand - **Apparent Demand**: As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. China's refined copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. Currently, due to the hot and rainy season, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has dampened the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing, resulting in lukewarm overall demand and a cold trading sentiment. The performance of the terminal power grid remains good. From January to June 2025, China's power grid infrastructure investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The State Grid plans to invest more than 650 billion yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of +8% [57]. - **Copper Products**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85%. The start-up rate was lower than expected, and downstream enterprises were cautious in taking delivery. Refined copper rod enterprises have reduced or stopped production, and enterprises have no intention to stockpile, keeping the inventory level low. Currently, it is the off-season, and downstream enterprises are not willing to accept high copper prices, resulting in an unexpected reduction in production by refined copper rod enterprises. The start-up rate of copper tube enterprises has shown a downward trend, with insufficient follow-up of downstream orders. With copper prices at a high level, the start-up rate has continued to decline. The production of terminal household appliances such as air conditioners is not high, and due to the 50% tariff on copper products imposed by the US, the export volume has decreased [62]. - **Power Grid Engineering**: From January to June, the power grid project investment reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year-on-year respectively. The power grid project remains a downstream rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [66]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: From January to June, the construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.33321 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9.1%. Among them, the residential construction area was 4.4124 billion square meters, a decrease of 9.4%. The new construction area of houses was 303.64 million square meters, a decrease of 20.0%. Among them, the new construction area of residential houses was 222.88 million square meters, a decrease of 19.6%. The completed area of houses was 225.67 million square meters, a decrease of 14.8%. Among them, the completed area of residential houses was 162.66 million square meters, a decrease of 15.5%. The real estate market continues to be weak [71]. - **Automobile and New Energy Automobile Industry**: In June, automobile production and sales reached 2.794 million and 2.904 million vehicles respectively, a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and 8.1% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 11.4% and 13.8% respectively. New energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.268 million and 1.329 million vehicles respectively, a year-on-year increase of 26.4% and 26.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 45.8% of the total sales volume of new vehicles [76]. 3.6 Copper Inventory - **Global Exchanges**: After the implementation of copper tariffs, the siphon effect of US copper has ended, and the LME copper inventory has started to accumulate significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 9.95% and a month-on-month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation rate of COMEX has slowed down, and the COMEX copper inventory was 264,100 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.72% and a month-on-month increase of 18.23% [83]. - **Domestic Inventory**: On August 7, the total spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 80,900 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the 31st, and a decrease of 300 tons from the 4th. The change in the bonded area inventory was limited. During the week, the export goods from smelters did not enter the warehouse, and the imported goods arriving at the port were directly cleared and imported into the domestic market, resulting in a slight decrease in inventory. Since the implementation of copper tariffs, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not shown a significant increase, which has supported the domestic copper price to some extent [87].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy unlimited homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, and strengthens housing provident fund support in four aspects [2] - China conducts normal economic and trade energy cooperation with Russia, and will take reasonable energy security measures based on national interests [2] - In Q2, China's current account had a surplus of $135.1 billion, while the capital and financial account had a deficit of the same amount [2] - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year. PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year [3] - The Trump administration will clarify that imported gold bars should not be taxed [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions and strengthens housing provident fund support [2] - China responds to the potential U.S. secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [2] - China's Q2 current account and capital and financial account balance data are released [2] - China's July CPI and PPI data are announced with corresponding interpretations [3] - The Trump administration will clarify the tariff policy on gold bars [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, lithium carbonate, caustic soda, asphalt, crude oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.82%, precious metals 27.87%, oilseeds 12.66%, non - ferrous metals 20.64%, soft commodities 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.82%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.17%, agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [4] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index - 0.12% daily, 1.73% monthly, 8.45% annually; S&P 500 0.78% daily, 0.79% monthly, 8.63% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures 0.03% daily, 0.14% monthly, - 0.26% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures 0.02% daily, 0.11% monthly, - 0.66% annually, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index 0.07% daily, - 1.90% monthly, - 0.89% annually; WTI crude oil - 0.81% daily, - 8.47% monthly, - 11.90% annually, etc. [6] - Others: US Dollar Index 0.18% daily, - 1.78% monthly, - 9.42% annually; CBOE Volatility Index - 8.57% daily, - 9.39% monthly, - 12.68% annually [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Last week, the urea futures market first rose and then fell. Affected by the high price of the Indian tender and the opening of exports to India, the market soared and then declined. The downstream's ability to bear high prices is insufficient. Although there is demand resilience, there is no willingness to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being. It is mainly based on replenishing stocks at low prices. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer factories, the downside space for urea is limited, and it will mainly undergo weak consolidation in the short term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half of last week, affected by the rising futures price, the Indian tender price, and export news, the trading atmosphere in the urea spot market was hot, and the spot price increased. In the second half of the week, the export situation was less than expected, and the downstream support was insufficient, so the price stabilized and declined. Since the weekend, the downstream trading has been mediocre, and the price has mainly been adjusted downward [3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume of the main contract last week was 15.6933 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 163,000 tons; the open interest was 5.7222 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 370,600 tons. After the Indian tender price increased and China opened the export of urea to India, the futures price soared to a high of 1,791 yuan/ton, but then the export volume was less than expected, and the futures price corrected. Last week, the decline of urea futures was weaker than that of the spot, and the basis weakened [5] Urea Supply - Last week, the weekly output of urea decreased. From July 31 to August 6, the weekly output of urea was 1.3285 million tons, a decrease of 9,100 tons from the previous period, a week-on-week decrease of 0.87%; the average daily output was 189,800 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 13,000 tons. It is expected that no enterprise's equipment will be shut down next week, and one shut-down enterprise will resume production. As of August 11, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 191,700 tons, and the operating rate was 81.62% [12] Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat compared to the previous week. As of August 8, the quotation of 45% sulfur-based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week-on-week. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, with an increasing operating load. Sales are mainly based on pre-sales orders, and the finished product inventory in the factories is continuously increasing. Due to the general bearish sentiment in the market and the lack of preparations for large-scale inventory replenishment by compound fertilizer factories, the purchase of raw material urea is mainly based on buying at low prices and making appropriate replenishments. At present, the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. From August 1 to August 7, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 41.5%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week and 2.75 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From August 1 to August 7, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 61.1%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous period and 11.85 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, the number of shut-down and maintenance equipment increased during the week, and the downstream demand was weak. It is expected that the operating load will continue to decline in the short term [17] Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, a decrease of 29,700 tons from the previous week, a week-on-week decrease of 3.24%, and 563,300 tons higher than the same period last year. During the week, the urea output decreased, and the downstream's low-price purchasing increased, so the inventory in the urea factories decreased. It is expected that the urea inventory will continue to decline next week. The inventory of the port samples was 483,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. As the export goods gradually left the port, the port inventory decreased [19] International Market - China will export a limited quantity of urea to India, with an expected export volume of 200,000 - 300,000 tons. The price of the IPL Indian tender is higher than the market expectation, and India's demand for urea is still increasing. It is expected that a new tender will be launched in September. Except for India and Brazil, the demand in other global markets has declined to varying degrees. It is expected that the international urea price will have a correction trend before the new demand from these two countries emerges. As of August 8, the FOB price of small-grain urea in China was reported at $460/ton, a week-on-week increase of $50/ton; the FOB price in the Baltic Sea was reported at $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the price in the Arabian Gulf was $512.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $457.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $20/ton. As of August 8, the FOB price of large-grain urea in China was reported at $467.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $30/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in Egypt was $502.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $12.5/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Arabian Gulf was $456.5/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7/ton; the FOB price of large-grain urea in the Baltic Sea was $455/ton, a week-on-week increase of $15/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was reported at $465/ton, a week-on-week increase of $7.5/ton; the FOB price in the US Gulf was reported at $446.5/ton, a week-on-week decrease of $12.5/ton [21]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 11 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 11 盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，碳酸锂封涨停，涨幅 8%，多晶硅 涨超 6%，工业硅涨近 5%，红枣涨超 3%，焦煤涨近 3%，合成橡胶、棕榈油、烧碱 涨超 2%。跌幅方面，鸡蛋跌超 3%，集运欧线跌超 2%。沪深 300 股指期货（IF） 主力合约涨 0.41%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力合约涨 0.01%，中证 500 股指期 货（IC）主力合约涨 1.07%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM）主力合约涨 1.61%。2 年 期国债期货（TS）主力合约跌 0.01%，5 年期国债期货（TF）主力合约跌 0.08%， 10年期国债期货（T）主力合约跌0.11%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.55%。 资金流向截至 08 月 11 日 15:19，国内期货主力合约资金流入方面，中证 1000 2509 流入 62.69 亿，沪深 300 2509 流入 30.38 亿，中证 500 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Recently, the capital market withstood the shock of the disappointing non - farm payroll data, risk appetite quickly recovered, and the macro - logic shifted to interest - rate cut trading. Risk assets generally rose in price. Overseas, the Fed's "independence" was challenged, and the increasing weight of dovish members strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged again, with July's import and export data exceeding expectations and inflation improving month - on - month. [6] - In the future, the weakening of the US dollar after the non - farm payroll shock is a key macro - factor. Globally, the divergence between sentiment and reality needs to converge, and the pressure of tariffs on the global economy will lead to the re - pricing of risk assets. Domestically, the cooling of overseas sentiment, combined with the economic downward pressure and the failure of policy expectations, will cause the "anti - involution" market to pause, and both the stock and commodity markets will face correction pressure. However, the flexibility of macro - policies may lead to the introduction of unexpected policies. [7] Section Summaries 1. Asset Classes - Overseas, most global major stock markets rose, the VIX index plunged, the BDI index rose continuously, the US dollar index declined, non - US currencies generally benefited, commodity trends were divided, oil prices dropped dragging down the CRB index, while gold and copper rose. Domestically, the "anti - involution" market emerged, July's import and export data exceeded expectations, and inflation improved month - on - month with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months. [6][10] 2. Sector Updates - The domestic bond market rose slightly, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger. The stock market generally rose, with the growth - style stocks rising more significantly than value - style stocks, and the market risk preference increased. The domestic commodity sectors were mixed, with the Wind Commodity Index rising 1.86% weekly, 5 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 5 falling. [6][16] 3. Capital Flows - Last week, the overall capital in the commodity futures market flowed in slightly. The energy, coal - coking - steel - ore, grain, oilseeds, agricultural products, and soft commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - ferrous and soft commodity sectors had obvious outflows. [19] 4. Product Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising commodity futures were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and coke, while the top - falling ones were fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt. [23] 5. Volatility Characteristics - Last week, the volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased significantly, and the volatilities of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index also declined. Most commodity futures sectors saw a decrease in volatility, with the precious metals, soft commodities, chemicals, and non - ferrous sectors experiencing a significant decline, while the agricultural products and grain sectors saw an obvious increase. [29] 6. Macro Logic - Stock Index - Last week, the four major domestic stock indices fluctuated at high levels after rising and then falling. Both growth and value stocks rose, market sentiment improved significantly, stock index valuations increased collectively, and the risk premium ERP was under pressure. [44] 7. Macro Logic - Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index was under pressure and fluctuated, inflation expectations rebounded, and the trends of expectations and reality were intertwined. [46] 8. Stock - Commodity Relationship - Last week, both the stock and commodity markets rose, and the commodity - stock return difference declined slightly. The domestic - priced commodities were more resilient, and the "anti - involution" market continued with the domestic - strong and overseas - weak style of commodities remaining. [54] 9. Macro Logic - US Treasury Bonds - The yield of US Treasury bonds rebounded, with short - term bonds weaker and long - term bonds stronger, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread was stable, the real interest rate was under pressure, and the gold price fluctuated upwards. [64] 10. Macro Logic - US Economy - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" showed resilience, the impact of tariffs on the economy was initially obvious, and the 10Y - 3M spread of US Treasury bonds fluctuated around 0. [72] 11. Fed Interest - Rate Cut Expectations - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September to 4 - 4.25% is 86.6%, significantly higher than the previous week. There are expectations of further interest - rate cuts in October or December, with a probability of about 40% for 2 - 3 rate cuts within the year. [81] 12. China's Economic Data - In July 2025, China's import and export data both exceeded expectations. The inflation data showed that CPI and PPI improved month - on - month, with PPI negative for 34 consecutive months year - on - year. [101][108] 13. "Anti - Involution" Market - The "anti - involution" market in the domestic commodity futures market may pause due to various factors, but the cooling does not mean a reversal. The essence of this market lies in the understanding of "anti - involution". [7][114] 14. "Involution" Analysis - "Involution" refers to the vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources but do not increase overall revenue. It includes low - price competition, homogeneous competition, and "race - to - the - bottom" in marketing. Local governments also contribute to involution through improper policies. The harm of involution is significant at the macro, meso, and micro levels. [119][121][125] - To combat "involution", it is necessary to coordinate supply and demand sides, combine an effective market with an active government, and strengthen industry self - discipline. [136] 15. This Week's Focus - This week, important events include the RBA's interest - rate decision, OPEC's monthly oil market report, US CPI data, and speeches by Fed officials. [163]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, while oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase. Base metals showed mixed performance. The financial market had various developments including corporate dividends, fund self - purchases, and investment strategies. Industries such as real estate, agriculture, and manufacturing also had significant events [2][27][34] - The report suggests focusing on five strong industrial trend industries in asset allocation and avoiding unclear capital relay trading [29] Summary by Related Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - COMEX gold futures rose 0.13% to $3458.2 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.72%. COMEX silver futures rose 0.56% to $38.51 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 4.28%. The rise was due to policy concerns and increased market uncertainty [2] - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil futures declined. U.S. oil fell 0.83% to $63.35 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 5.91%. Brent crude fell 0.17% to $66.32 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 4.81%, affected by OPEC+ production increase [2] - London base metals showed mixed performance. LME copper, zinc, and aluminum rose, while nickel, lead, and tin declined slightly. The market was significantly affected by Fed policies and tariffs [2] Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The 8th - 2025 China (Zhengzhou) International Futures Forum will be held from August 19th to 20th [4] - Five futures exchanges issued程序化交易 management measures to strengthen supervision [4] - In July, national passenger car retail sales were 1.826 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 12.728 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.1% [5] - As of August 8th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index and the China Export Container Freight Index declined [5] - In July, the national CPI was flat year - on - year. The average CPI from January to July decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [7] - Fed Governor Bowman supports interest rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [7] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of August 7th, PVC social inventory increased 7.49% month - on - month to 776,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [9] - As of August 7th, the weekly output of Chinese styrene factories was 359,200 tons, a decrease of 0.64%. The capacity utilization rate was 77.73%, a decrease of 1.19% [9] Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new registered brands for polysilicon futures [11] - Last week, the nickel ore inventory at 14 Chinese ports increased by 389,800 wet tons to 10.3334 million wet tons, an increase of 3.92% [13] - Last week, copper, zinc, nickel, and tin inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, while aluminum and lead inventories decreased [14] - The mining end of Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo Mine will stop production starting from August 10th with no short - term resumption plan [14] Black - Series Futures - Due to rainfall, 12 out of 21 Inner Mongolia power coal mines reduced production or stopped production, with a total capacity of 67.5 million tons. Nine open - pit mines will resume production on the evening of August 8th [16] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.34% to 74.03%. Coke daily output increased, inventory decreased, and coking coal inventory decreased [16] - On August 8th, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29 percentage points. The profitability of steel mills increased by 3.03 percentage points [16] - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 and 47 Chinese ports increased, and the daily handling volume increased [18] - Coke started the sixth round of price increase, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan [18] - Last week, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 9.42% to 71,700 tons, while the inventory of 63 independent ferromanganese enterprises decreased by 2,500 tons [19] Agricultural Futures - As of August 8th, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 45.13 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets for farming was a loss of 134.14 yuan per head [21] - Due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the domestic far - month rapeseed procurement progress is slow, and the supply may be tight in the later stage [21] - From August 2nd to 8th, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [22] - In July, the FAO Food Price Index rose 1.6% to 130.1 points, reaching a two - year high [24] - From August 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil exports were expected to be 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [25] Financial Market Finance - Nearly 50 A - share companies have disclosed mid - term dividend plans, with some companies having high - value dividends and high dividend yields [27] - The Hong Kong Investment Management Limited has invested in over 100 projects, and more than 10 companies are applying for listing in Hong Kong [27] - Southern Fund self - purchased three equity - based ETFs worth 230 million yuan. This year, nearly 130 public funds have self - purchased over 5 billion yuan [27] - CITIC Securities suggests focusing on five strong industrial trend industries and avoiding unclear capital relay trading [29] - CITIC Construction Investment believes that the short - term A - share market has upward resistance but is in a bull - market relay, and suggests paying attention to new low - position sub - sectors [29] - Southbound funds have a cumulative net inflow of over HK$900.8 billion this year, and Hong Kong stocks are considered a more inclusive capital haven [29] Industry - Beijing Yizhuang issued policies to support the development of embodied intelligent robots [32] - The Hubei Brain - Computer Interface Industry Innovation Development Alliance was established, and the first medical service price standard for brain - computer interfaces was released [34] - From January to July, real estate companies had over 50 executive changes, with a focus on the marketing department. Some companies are introducing composite talents [34] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity and guide the reduction of about 1 million sows [34] - The first domestic shield/TBM big data mining community was established in Zhengzhou, and a vertical large - model was released [34] Overseas - U.S. Treasury Secretary believes Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the U.S., and hopes the next Fed Chairman has "forward - looking thinking" [35] - The U.S. will stop providing tax credits for electric vehicles from September 30th. Electric vehicle sales may set a record in Q3 and decline in Q4 [35] - In 2024, Japan's population decreased by about 554,500, a decline of 0.44% [36] - The French government plans to save 4.2 billion euros from the national budget by canceling two public holidays in 2026 [36] International Stock Market - Jinglin Asset adjusted its U.S. stock holdings, adding technology stocks and clearing some positions [37] - The UK Competition and Markets Authority approved Boeing's acquisition of Spirit AeroSystems [37] Commodity - The gold futures price in the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a new high. "Interest - rate cut trading" and "Trump 2.0" will continue to catalyze the gold price [38] Bond - In the three months since the new policy on science and technology innovation bonds was implemented, the issuance scale reached 880.659 billion yuan, with a low average coupon rate [40] Foreign Exchange - Ten years after the "8·11 exchange - rate reform", the RMB exchange - rate marketization level has continuously improved, and two - way fluctuations have become the norm [41] Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data such as Italy's July harmonized CPI annual rate final value, June trade balance, and Canada's national economic confidence index will be released [43] - There will be 54.48 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the Chinese central bank's open market. The revision plan of the Hang Seng Innovative Drug Index and related indices will be implemented [45] - The 2025 (Second) China Solid - State Battery Technology Industry Development Conference will be held from August 11th to 13th in Hangzhou. Hongyuan Co., Ltd. on the Beijing Stock Exchange will be available for subscription [45]

工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年8月8日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.4个百分点至31.7%，较去年同期高了5.2个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，8月份国内沥青预计排产241.3万吨， 环比减少12.9万吨，减幅为5.1%，同比增加35.3万吨，增幅为17.1%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率 涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨2个百分点至29%，略高于前两年同期水平，受到资金和南方 降雨高温制约。本周，华东地区主力炼厂高负荷生产，加之天气好转后船发发货量良好，出货量增 加较多，全国出货量环比增加2.90%至28.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比 继续下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将导致中国 购买沥青原料的贴水幅度缩小。下周江苏新海、山东个别炼厂计划复产，部分地区降雨仍将影响沥 青刚需，加之船期集中到港，原油成本支撑走弱，预计近期沥青偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2510合约下跌1.58%至3478元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3467元/吨， ...