供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.3个百分点至25.5%，较去年同期低了2.6个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，山东地区部分炼厂停产或转产渣油，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少5.80%至21.45万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比持平， 仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的 生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的 贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的 折扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国 内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周山东胜星石化计划转产渣油，沥青开工维持低位。北方刚性需求基本停 滞，但有备货套利需求，南方项目也陆续进入收尾阶段。山东地区沥青价格稳定，基差有 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月4日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关 ...

1，期货市场：玻璃主力今日高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口 向上，短期震荡偏强信号。压力关注前期高点附近，支撑关注日线的 30 均线附 近。成交量较昨日增 76.4 万手，持仓量较昨日减 1452 手；日内最高 1120，最 低 1085，收盘 1109，（较昨结算价）涨 36 元/吨，涨幅 3.36%。 2，现货市场：华北，价格稳定，出货尚可，交投有所减弱；华东，企业多 稳价为主，下游偏淡，刚需采购；华中，偏稳运行，中下游拿货理性，回款为主； 华南，除少数加工厂赶工外，多数下游放假，采购情绪下降。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-89 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，本周浮法玻璃总产量 105.7 万吨，环比持平， 同比-3.375%。行业平均开工率 71.86%，环比+0.24%；行业平均产能利用率 75.7%， 环比持平（数据自 2025 年 8 月 31 日起修正）。 【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 库存方面，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 5256.4 万重箱，环比-65.2 万重 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 20 均 线附近。成交量较昨日增 44.7 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12546 手；日内最高 1234， 最低 1201，收盘 1229，（较昨结算价）涨 25 元/吨，涨幅 2.08%。 2，现货市场：低位震荡。企业装置窄幅波动，徐州丰成停车检修，产量窄 幅下移。下游需求不温不火，保持随用随采。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨，环比增加 0.32 万吨；重碱产量 42.11 万吨，环比增加 0.82 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.19%，上周 86.42%，环比 下降 2.23%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.99%，环比增加 1.30%；联产产能利用率 74.65%，环比下降 3.34%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea futures opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end of the session. Although upstream factory quotes declined, futures turning positive indicates a potential price stabilization tomorrow. The market is expected to be weakly stable before the Spring Festival and attention should be paid to the purchasing situation during the farming peak season [1]. - The daily urea production remains stable, and the inventory continues to decrease. As the Spring Festival approaches, upstream factories face increasing pressure to attract orders, and spot prices may be reduced to attract orders without positive news. The demand from downstream factories is expected to peak during the farming season after the Spring Festival [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures: The main urea contract 2605 opened at 1772 yuan/ton, closed at 1787 yuan/ton, up 0.56%. The trading volume was 228,271 lots, a decrease of 3727 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 2157 lots and short positions decreased by 942 lots [2]. - Spot: Upstream factory quotes declined, and the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1700 - 1760 yuan/ton, with actual transaction prices in some Henan and Shandong factories between 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton. The price is expected to stabilize tomorrow [1][5]. 3.2. Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes declined, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the May contract was - 27 yuan/ton, weaker than the previous trading day [7]. 3.3. Supply Data - On February 4, 2026, the national daily urea production was 209,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 84.86% [8]. 3.4. Inventory Data - As of February 6, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,400 tons from the previous week, a 2.79% decrease [9]. 3.5. Pre - sale Orders - As of February 6, 2026, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 8.82 days, an increase of 2.23 days from the previous period, a 33.84% increase [9]. 3.6. Warehouse Receipts - On February 4, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,969, a decrease of 212 from the previous trading day [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 热卷日报：缩量震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：热卷期货主力合约周三持仓量增仓 5482 手，成交量 285185 手，相比上一交易日缩量，日内最低价 3266 元，最高价 3285 元，日内 震荡运行，日均线来看短期跌破 5 日均线，30 日均线，60 日均线，收于 3274 元/吨，上涨 6 元，涨幅 0.18%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上海热卷价格报 3270 元/吨。相比上一交易日维 稳。 3，基差：期现基差-4 元。 ■需求端：截止 1 月 29 日周度表观消费量环比上升 1.45 万吨至 311.41 万 吨，表需本周微增，且在历年同期中属于较好水平。 ■库存端：截止 1 月 22 日总库存周环比下降 2.22 万吨至 355.58 万吨（社 会库存周环比下降 2.81 万吨，钢厂库存增 0.61 万吨），总库存环比下降，库 存压力边际缓解，整体库存处于去库通道。 ■政策面：钢材出口许可证管理新规出台，短期将导致出口波动，供应增 加，价格承压，长期则推动产业升级，结构优化，竞争力提升。12 月召开的中 央经济会议宏观面积极的财政政策 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged, and the subsequent decline space is limited, with an expected continuation of the oscillating trend [1] - Corn in the Northeast is expected to have a wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and it can be considered to buy on dips if there is a large decline [1] - Egg inventory in February is expected to have a higher monthly center of gravity than in January, which will have a phased impact on prices, and it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2] - The worst time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [3] Summary by Category Soybeans - The soybean market in the Northeast has remained stable recently, with only narrow price fluctuations and a significant decline in trading activity [1] - On February 2, 60,608 tons of reserve soybeans from 2022 were auctioned, all were sold, with an average price of 4,297.6 yuan/ton and a maximum premium of 310 yuan/ton, but the market atmosphere has not improved [1] - Most traders are mainly digesting inventory and fulfilling previous contracts [1] Corn - The Northeast market has entered a small peak of pre - festival grain sales, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, resulting in a weak trend [1] - In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%, and the supply and demand sides are in a continuous game. The price in North China is low, and the actual supply increase is limited. The corn price is slightly stronger [1] Eggs - In January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links of eggs in the main producing areas decreased significantly, with the production - link inventory days at 1.01 days (a 2.88% month - on - month decrease) and the circulation - link inventory days at 1.09 days (a 5.22% month - on - month decrease) [2] - The estimated average inventory days in the production link in February is about 2.50 days, with a significantly higher monthly inventory center of gravity than in January [2] Pigs - At the end of 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (a 2.9% decline), and it was 101.6% of the normal inventory [2] - In 2025, the national live pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million (a 2.4% increase) [2] - At the end of 2025, the national live pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (a 0.5% increase) [2] - From late January to early February, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down, and the worst time for live pigs around the Spring Festival is being realized [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bearish and volatile" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - In the short term, the price of natural rubber will fluctuate bearishly, and attention should be paid to the previous high pressure [6] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,385 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.64% [1] - The intended transaction price of the mainstream supply of 24-year SCRWF in the Shanghai market was 16,050 - 16,100 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - The intended transaction price of the mainstream supply of Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 - 16,650 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - In the spot market, the futures market fluctuated strongly, and the spot market followed the increase, but the downstream demand was weak and the trading was light [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the supply of natural rubber gradually declined both at home and abroad, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken [2] - The cost of rubber is strongly supported, and the raw material price is expected to remain firm [2] - According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production is expected to decline in the first quarter, and imports are likely to decline in January and February [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, the operating rates of semi-steel and all-steel tires in China were 74.84% and 62.44% respectively, both higher than the historical average [3] - Due to high raw material costs, some sample enterprises arranged for the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which will lead to a decline in production capacity utilization [3] - The terminal demand for all-steel tires is weak, and the replenishment enthusiasm for semi-steel tires is slightly better [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, and the inventory accumulation accelerated [4] - The inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63% from the end of December 2025 [4] - The general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89% from the end of December 2025 [4] 5. Basis - As of February 3, the basis was -280 yuan/ton, lower than the annual average and at a historical low, with room for expansion [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：下游累库，刚需支撑有所转弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内窄幅震荡，收于 781.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价有所小幅上涨+4 元/吨，涨幅+0.51%，成交 24.1 万手，持 仓量 51.6 万手，沉淀资金 88.66 亿。短期维持窄幅震荡，关注下方支撑 775 附 近进一步测试。 库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，节后需求存不确定性，现 实方面供需两端仍有待验证，关注市场情绪变化。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 三、宏观层面 国内宏观层面，延续积极政策预期作为宏观主线的判断。从政策端的变化 看，一季度政策加力实现"十五五"开局之年的经济"开门红"的预期在逐渐 走强，整体政策环境偏暖，这也是我们看多一季度风险资产的核心逻辑之一。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 783 跌+2，超特粉 668 跌 +2，掉期主力 102.6(-0.2)美元/吨。现货坚挺、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebar market is in the traditional off - season before the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, but the concentrated shutdown of short - process steel mills will gradually relieve the supply pressure. The demand is continuously weak due to the suspension of construction sites and the end of winter storage, with significant inventory accumulation pressure. The price is expected to maintain a low - level volatile pattern in the short term, with limited fluctuation range. The post - festival market depends on inventory de - stocking speed and policy support, especially the implementation rhythm of "two - heavy" projects and infrastructure investment realization [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 6,899 lots on Wednesday, with a lower trading volume than the previous trading day (614,090 lots). It fell below the short - term 5 - day and medium - term 30 - day moving averages, with a low of 3,100 yuan/ton, a high of 3,105 yuan/ton, closing at 3,110 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.13% [1] - Spot price: The mainstream area's HRB400E 20mm rebar spot was quoted at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 120 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week ending January 29, rebar production increased by 0.28 million tons week - on - week to 1.9983 billion tons, and was 2.216 billion tons higher year - on - year. The production rebounded slightly this week and was significantly higher than the same period last year, indicating accelerated resumption of production by steel mills, which put short - term downward pressure on prices [2] - Demand: The apparent demand decreased week - on - week (in line with the seasonal pattern of construction site shutdowns before the Spring Festival) but increased significantly year - on - year, showing a year - on - year recovery. As of the week ending January 29, the apparent demand was 1.764 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 912,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 9.785 billion tons. There was still support from winter - storage demand before the festival [2] - Inventory: The total inventory increased week - on - week but decreased significantly year - on - year, remaining at a low level. As of the week ending January 29, the total inventory was 4.7553 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.343 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 17.76 billion tons. Social inventory was 3.264 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.328 billion tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.388 billion tons. Mill inventory was 1.4913 billion tons, a week - on - week increase of 150,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 5.372 billion tons. The inventory pressure on mills and social inventory decreased significantly year - on - year, providing support for prices [2][3] - Macro: The central bank signaled moderate monetary easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing expenditure. However, due to the weak real - estate demand, the incremental demand was relatively limited. The easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Rising prices of raw materials (coking coal and coke), inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and loose macro expectations [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slow inventory de - stocking, accelerated resumption of blast - furnace production, cautious winter - storage demand, continuous decline in real - estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [4]