Report Summary 1. Hot News - Saudi Aramco set the price of "Arab Light Crude" for Asia in January next year at a premium of $0.6 per barrel to the Oman/Dubai crude oil average price, the lowest level since January 2021, due to global crude oil supply surplus pressure [2] - As of the week ending December 4, the production and apparent demand of rebar decreased for the second consecutive week, and factory and social inventories decreased for the eighth consecutive week. Rebar production was 1.8931 million tons, a decrease of 167,700 tons or 8.14% from the previous week; apparent demand was 2.1698 million tons, a decrease of 109,600 tons or 4.81% [2] - The CEO of Hapag - Lloyd said there is no specific timeline for the shipping industry to resume Suez Canal navigation. Any resumption will be gradual, with a 60 - 90 - day transition period to adjust logistics and avoid sudden port congestion. If the Suez Canal route re - opens in 2026, the industry will need several months to restart gradually [2] - From January to October 2025, global new energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million, a year - on - year increase of 30%. In October, sales were 2.11 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In the US, sales from January to October were 1.4 million, a 10% increase. In October, US new energy vehicle sales were 93,000, a year - on - year decrease of 32% and a month - on - month decrease of 51% due to high tariffs and the cancellation of new energy subsidies [2] - According to incomplete statistics from Fantang Technology, two more sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 44 sugar mills in the 2025/2026 crushing season in Guangxi have started production, 22 less than the same period last year, and the daily sugarcane crushing capacity is about 349,500 tons, a decrease of 193,500 tons year - on - year [3] 2. Key Attention - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, silver, crude oil, and PP [4] 3. Night - session Performance 3.1 Plate Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.71% increase; precious metals had a 30.02% increase; oilseeds had an 8.83% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 24.59% increase; soft commodities had a 2.83% increase; coal, coke, and steel ore had a 12.12% increase; energy had a 2.82% increase; chemicals had a 10.86% increase; grains had a 1.47% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 3.75% increase [4] 3.2 Plate Position - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, but specific data trends are mainly shown in the graph [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.06 | - 0.33 | 15.63 | | | SSE 50 | 0.38 | 0.16 | 10.79 | | | CSI 300 | 0.34 | 0.44 | 15.54 | | | CSI 500 | 0.24 | - 0.27 | 22.48 | | | S&P 500 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 16.59 | | | Hang Seng Index | 0.68 | 0.30 | 29.29 | | | German DAX | 0.87 | 0.26 | 20.04 | | | Nikkei 225 | 2.33 | 1.54 | 27.91 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.19 | - 0.10 | 18.82 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.35 | - 0.25 | - 1.15 | | | 5 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.24 | - 0.14 | - 0.89 | | | 2 - year Treasury bond futures | - 0.05 | - 0.01 | - 0.59 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.55 | 0.81 | 2.43 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 1.27 | 2.23 | - 16.99 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.12 | - 0.25 | 60.35 | | | LME Copper | - 0.47 | 2.31 | 30.21 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.41 | 0.85 | 34.93 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.20 | - 0.38 | - 8.68 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 1.65 | - 7.32 | [6] 5. Main Commodity Trends - The document shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn through graphs, but specific data trends are mainly shown in the graphs [7]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加1.39个百分点至80.22%，PVC开工 率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率基本稳定。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止， 对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，只是中国台 湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨，上周出口签单环比回落。上周社会库存小幅增加，目前 仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同 比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面 积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC 开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀 望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会 议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品一定提振。但山东恒 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices rebounded recently due to gas - curtailment expectations, macro - level boosts, and export rumors, but the high - price acceptance of downstream buyers needs attention. As it is approaching the contract roll - over period, caution is advised for both long and short positions [1] - The short - term spot price of urea is expected to be stable. The demand side is strengthening, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline smoothly. The daily output is expected to decrease further with the shutdown of southwest plants [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened higher and weakened during the day. After the trading volume improved, upstream factories raised prices. Although the futures closed down, the pending orders were still sufficient. The daily output decreased slightly due to winter natural gas curtailment and is expected to decline further with southwest plant shutdowns. The demand side strengthened, with the compound fertilizer factory's operating load increasing by 3.47%. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,695 yuan/ton, closed at 1,688 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.12%. The trading volume was 209,271 lots, a decrease of 282 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 5,281 lots and short positions increased by 739 lots. For example, Ping An Futures had a net long increase of 1,567 lots and Dongzheng Futures had a net long decrease of 2,657 lots [2] - On December 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 9,353, an increase of 1,588 compared to the previous trading day. For instance, Jiashili Pingyuan (Yuntu Holdings UR) increased by 176 lots [2] Spot - After the transaction improved, upstream factories raised prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,690 yuan/ton, with Henan factories offering lower prices [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose while the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the January contract basis at 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 195,300 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.48% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 5, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons from the previous week, a 5.38% decrease [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 5, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period, a 10.53% increase [10] Downstream Data - From November 29 to December 5, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 40.53%, an increase of 3.47 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 61.66%, an increase of 0.86 percentage points from the previous week [12]

每日核心期货品种分析 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 04 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 04 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超 ...

尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1710 20 河南 1710 1690 20 山东 1710 1680 30 山西 1570 1540 30 江苏 1700 1680 20 安徽 1700 1690 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1700 1690 10 山东华鲁 1700 1690 10 江苏灵谷 1720 1720 0 安徽昊源 1660 1650 10 山东05基差 -72 -54 -18 山东01基差 -88 -73 -15 河北05基差 -42 -34 -8 河北01基差 -58 -53 -5 1-5价差 65 69 -4 5-9价差 -16 -19 3 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 9353 7765 1588 中东FOB 384 384 0 美湾FOB 369 369 0 埃及FOB 460 460 0 波罗的海FOB 367.5 367.5 0 巴西CFR 415 415 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升3.0个百分点至27.8%，较去年同期低了4.7个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青 开工环比下跌5个百分点至29%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂间歇生产，船发良 好，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.74%至26.21万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货 比环比持平，处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制 裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持 开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾， 20万桶/日的蒸馏装置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴水幅度扩大。本周山东 胜星等炼厂转产，但广州石化计划复产，沥青开工率将略有上升。北方气温下降后，道路施工 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 多因素共振支撑铜价上行 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 4 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开高走，日内偏强，全球第二大铜矿印尼铜矿发生泥石流事故停产后， 计划自 2026 年第二季度（7 月）起，分阶段重启大规模生产，后续铜矿偏紧预期将有缓 解，稳定铜价。由于冶炼厂集中在 10 月、11 月检修，预计随着工厂的复产，12 月铜国 内产量将增加。铜冶炼厂加工费持续在 42 美元/干吨附近窄幅波动，冶炼厂依靠副产品 及长协订单维持经营成本。需求方面，截至 2025 年 9 月，铜表观消费量为 132.18 万 吨，金九银十旺季结束后，铜价依然保持增长趋势，下游高价抵触情绪下，买兴下降， 铜表观需求环比减少，但下游电网及储能依然刚需托底，需求量难有大幅度的减少。LME 铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，提振铜乐观预期，且美国 11 月 ADP 就业人数减少 3.2 万 人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，降息预期再度增长，美元下挫，支撑金属价格上涨， 且前期国内产业端反内卷呼声影响冶炼端后续产量的增减情况，铜价再度上涨。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备 ...

PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月04日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比上涨0.26个百分点至53.83%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑 编开工率环比下降0.14个百分点至44.1%，塑编订单环比持平，略低于去年同期。12月4日，东莞巨正 源一期二线、独山子石化老二线等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至83%左右，处于中性偏低 水平，标品拉丝生产比例下降至29.5%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水 平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成 影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达 成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产， 近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单跟进持续性有限，BOPP膜价格下跌后暂稳， 市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。国家发展改革委会同有 关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品 一定提振，但PP供需格局整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The plastics supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 4th, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 restarted, and the plastics operating rate rose to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 28th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% week - on - week. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level. With new production capacity put into operation, it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market. Although relevant meetings have given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract decreased in position, oscillated, and declined. The lowest price was 6,753 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,776 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.53%. The position volume decreased by 16,226 lots to 386,484 lots [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,070 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,520 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,850 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 4th, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 restarted, and the plastics operating rate rose to around 89%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3% week - on - week. The agricultural film season is coming to an end, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 685,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around $63/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $720/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $740/ton week - on - week [4]