Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The two discount interest policies are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial collaboration to boost consumption, aiming to support people's consumption needs and form a policy combination with existing subsidies [2] - The Fed may have the possibility to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the current interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to summarize experience and improve processes for the two discount interest policies, which can work with existing consumer subsidies [2] - By the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year - on - year. Net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan [2] - China included two EU banks in the counter - measure list and prohibited domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them [2] - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 68.07 billion yuan, with short - term loans decreasing by 38.3 billion yuan and medium - and long - term loans increasing by 1.06 trillion yuan [2] - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, rapeseed meal, coke, soda ash, and caustic soda [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows different sector changes, with precious metals up 26.41%, non - ferrous metals up 21.22%, coal - coking - steel - ore up 15.30%, etc [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various performance indicators. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.48%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, and an annual increase of 9.90%; WTI crude oil had a daily decrease of 0.71%, a monthly decrease of 9.39%, and an annual decrease of 12.79% [6] Trends of Major Commodities - Charts display the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/8/14 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.24%报 3407.00 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.44%报 38.55 美元/盎司。美联储官员暗示可能降息，美国 国债创新高及贸易政策不确定性推动避险需求。 2. 库存增加需求下调打压油价，美油主力合约收跌 0.68%，报 62.74 美元/桶； 布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.54%，报 65.76 美元/桶。EIA 数据显示上周美国原油 库存增加 303.6 万桶，远超预期，同时 IEA 下调全球原油需求增长预期。全球 石油需求预计今年仅增加 68.5 万桶/日，为 2019 年以来最弱增幅。 3. 伦敦基本金属全线下跌，LME 期铅跌 1.36%报 1988.00 美元/吨，LME 期锌跌 1.26%报 2811.50 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.65%报 9777.00 美元/吨。伦敦基本金 属全线下跌，主要受美联储政策不确定性、需求端复苏乏力及市场情绪谨慎等 因素 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing, and the dollar is oscillating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous market. The domestic copper inventory is low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rising. The Shanghai copper is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term but still maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [7]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be tight, but the sentiment has declined. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, and the follow - up start - up situation of other mines needs to be monitored [9]. - Crude oil is in the seasonal travel peak. Although there are factors such as OPEC+ production increase and concerns about the US economy, the market is tight in the peak season. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure on crude oil increases if the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire occurs, but there is uncertainty. The crude oil futures price has fallen again, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - The asphalt supply is expected to increase, the demand is restricted by factors such as rainfall, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [12]. - The PP downstream recovery is slow, the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance, and the cost decreases. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - The plastic downstream is in the off - season, but there are signs of improvement. The supply has new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [15]. - The PVC supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, the inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate downward. A 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [17]. - The coking coal inventory of mines has decreased significantly, and the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased. The coke price increase has not been implemented, and the coking coal is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - The urea supply has narrow - range fluctuations, the domestic demand is insufficient, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. Affected by the parade, the market is expected to be weakly sorted [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed oil rose more than 3%, soybean meal and soybean No. 2 rose nearly 3%, and rapeseed meal rose more than 2%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe fell more than 5%, industrial silicon fell more than 3%, coking coal fell 3%, coke fell nearly 3%, and polysilicon fell more than 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures generally rose [4]. - As of 15:27 on August 13, in terms of capital inflows of domestic futures main contracts, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 8.507 billion, CSI 500 2509 had an inflow of 4.343 billion, and SSE 50 2509 had an inflow of 3.75 billion. In terms of outflows, coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 1.303 billion, palm oil 2509 had an outflow of 635 million, and Shanghai gold 2510 had an outflow of 613 million [4]. 3.2 Analysis of Specific Varieties 3.2.1 Copper - The weakening of the dollar and the expected Fed rate cut support the non - ferrous market. The domestic consumption loan policy boosts the downstream demand sentiment. The supply of copper concentrates has increased, and the TC/RC fees have stabilized and rebounded. The current demand is weak, but the inventory has not increased significantly, supporting the copper price [7]. 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate opened low and closed slightly down. The supply is expected to be affected by the shutdown of Ningde Times' mine, and the demand has increased in terms of inquiry activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - It is in the seasonal travel peak. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, but Saudi Aramco has raised the official selling price. The IEA has adjusted the global crude oil surplus in 2025, and the market is tight in the peak season. Concerns about the US economy and the possibility of a Russia - Ukraine cease - fire increase the downward pressure on crude oil [10]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt start - up rate has declined, the expected production in August has decreased, the downstream start - up rates vary, and the inventory is at a low level. The narrowing of the raw material discount and the weakening of cost support are expected to lead to weak oscillations [12]. 3.2.5 PP - The downstream start - up rate of PP has increased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate has risen, the inventory is at a high level, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity and increasing maintenance. It is expected to oscillate [13]. 3.2.6 Plastic - The plastic start - up rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, the inventory is high, the cost has decreased, and the supply has new production capacity. The off - season has not ended, but there are signs of improvement. It is expected to oscillate [15]. 3.2.7 PVC - The PVC start - up rate has increased, the downstream start - up rate is still low, the export situation is uncertain, the inventory is high, the real estate demand is weak, and there is new production capacity. It is expected to oscillate downward [16][17]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - The coking coal price opened high and closed with a decline. The coal mine inventory has decreased, the inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises has increased, the coke price increase has not been implemented, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. 3.2.9 Urea - The urea price opened low and closed flat. The production is fluctuating narrowly, the demand is weak due to factors such as the parade, the inventory is accumulating, and the market is in a pattern of loose supply and demand. It is expected to be weakly sorted [19][20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September continues to increase, with the US dollar fluctuating at a low level, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The domestic copper inventory remains low, and the smelter processing fees are gradually stabilizing and rebounding. The Shanghai copper market is generally strong in the short term but still maintains a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [2][59][60]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Fundamental Information - US: In July, the overall consumer price index (CPI) was lower than market expectations. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, slowing down from 0.3% in June, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, the same as last month. After the news was announced, the US dollar weakened, and the market raised the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to over 96%. The ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 48 in July, and the Markit manufacturing PMI fell below the boom - bust line for the first time in 2025 [5]. - China: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index decreased by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. The CPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month, and the PPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month, with the year - on - year decrease remaining at 3.6% [8]. Recent Developments in Copper Mining Disturbances - Codelco in Chile is conducting a full - scale investigation after a mine accident. The accident caused six deaths, making it the most serious mine accident in Chile in decades [11]. - Chifeng Gold's Laos Saiban SND gold - copper mine project completed its first - stage resource exploration. As of June 30, 2025, the proven mineral resource volume was 131.5 million tons, with a gold equivalent grade of 0.81 g/t and a gold equivalent metal volume of about 106.9 tons [12]. Analysis of LME Copper/Shanghai Copper Prices - This week, copper prices fluctuated upward. As of August 12, the highest price of Shanghai copper was 79,170 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,050 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 1.43%. The highest price of LME copper was 9,865 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,622.5 yuan/ton, and the weekly amplitude was 2.52% [13]. Copper Supply Side - In July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 17.314 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates at 16 ports in China increased by 0.77 million tons to 428,700 tons [23]. - As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the RC was - 3.79 US cents/pound, showing a stable and upward trend. The long - term contracts of smelters are profitable, while the spot contracts are still at a loss, but the production enthusiasm of smelters is acceptable [25]. - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative production was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. In July, the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [31]. Copper Inventory Data - After the copper tariff was implemented, the LME copper inventory started to increase significantly. As of August 8, the LME copper inventory was 155,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.95% and a month - on - month increase of 45.48%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX slowed down, with the inventory at 264,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.72% and a month - on - month increase of 18.23%. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has not significantly increased, supporting the domestic copper price to some extent. The bonded - area copper inventory in Shanghai and Guangdong increased slightly [38]. Downstream Terminal Demand - In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The utilization rate was lower than expected, and some enterprises reduced or stopped production. The capacity utilization rate of copper tube enterprises showed a downward trend, and the export volume decreased due to the 50% tariff on US copper products [47]. - From January to June, the investment in power grid projects reached 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The real estate industry remained weak, with a year - on - year decline in various indicators such as construction area and new construction area [53]. - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a high level in the same period of history. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026 [56].

【冠通研究】 库存增加，盘面震荡整理 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 13 日 现货方面：市场成交氛围暂未好转，上游工厂开启降价吸单，目前来看效 果一般。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1680-1700 元/吨，个别工厂成交价略低。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 今日低开高走尾盘收平。昨天低价成交顺畅，上游工厂待发充足，今日现 货报价低位反弹。基本面来看，夏季尿素工厂装置多发临检，日产目前位于 19 万吨左右上下波动，环比减弱但同比依然偏高。停车与复产并行，产量窄幅波 动。需求端，工业需求有韧性，但后续受阅兵影响，京津冀地区尿素下游三聚 氰胺陆续停产，复合肥工厂开工也将逐步开始减量，目前厂内成品库存不断攀 升，由于市场普遍看空且复合肥工厂无大幅囤货备库的准备，对原料尿素的跟 进适量补库为主，后续集中拿货的概率低。整体内需不足，市场行情不温不 火。库存端，本期厂内库存累库，主要系农需结束后，下游工厂拿货积极性不 佳。整体来说，出口短暂未给尿素企业带来更大的增量，受内需拖累，市场依 然处于供需宽松的格局，但下跌空间较小，另外本月后续将 ...

Hot News - From 12:01 on August 12, 2025, the additional tariff measures stipulated in the "Announcement of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Imposing Additional Tariffs on Imported Goods Originating from the United States" (Tariff Commission Announcement No. 4 in 2025) will be adjusted. The 24% additional tariff rate on US goods will continue to be suspended for 90 days, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained [1] - The People's Government of Guangzhou and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan on Implementing the Opinions on Financial Support for the In - depth All - around Cooperation of Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao in Nansha, Guangzhou Facing the World", proposing to support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to actively study power futures and strive for the support of the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments to explore the timely launch of power futures [1] - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans". The annual interest subsidy ratio is 1 percentage point, with a maximum of 50% of the loan contract interest rate. The central and provincial finances will bear 90% and 10% of the interest subsidy funds respectively [1] - On August 12, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian was asked by a AFP reporter about US President Trump's post on the "Truth Social" platform, expressing the hope that China would triple its soybean orders as a way to significantly reduce the US - China trade deficit. Lin Jian said that specific issues should be referred to the competent authorities, and China's stance on US - China economic and trade issues is consistent and clear [1] - Federal Reserve's Barkin said that the uncertainty about the direction of the US economic development is decreasing, but it is still unclear whether the central bank should focus more on controlling inflation or supporting the job market [2] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are coking coal, rapeseed meal, crude oil, soda ash, and fuel oil [3] Night - Session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.94% increase, precious metals 26.15%, oilseeds and fats 12.70%, non - ferrous metals 21.79%, soft commodities 2.41%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 15.48%, energy 3.36%, chemicals 11.22%, grains 1.15%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.80% [3] Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, covering various sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal, coke, steel and minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 2.59%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.37%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 1.12%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.55%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.52%, a monthly increase of 1.67%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.31%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.41%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.09%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 1.13%, a monthly increase of 1.68%, and a year - to - date increase of 9.59%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.25%, a monthly increase of 0.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.48%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.23%, a monthly decrease of 0.17%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.67%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily increase of 2.15%, a monthly increase of 4.01%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.08%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.20%, a monthly increase of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.93% [5] Fixed - Income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.46%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.00%, a monthly decrease of 0.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.77%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly decrease of 0.01%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.62% [5] Commodities - The CRB Commodity Index had a daily decrease of 0.11%, a monthly decrease of 1.47%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.46%; WTI crude oil had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 7.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 11.03%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 1.76%, and a year - to - date increase of 27.57%; LME copper had no daily change, a monthly increase of 1.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.76%; the Wind Commodity Index had a daily decrease of 0.87%, a monthly decrease of 0.47%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.07% [5] Others - The US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.44%, a monthly decrease of 1.98%, and a year - to - date decrease of 9.60%; the CBOE Volatility Index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 2.81%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.34% [5] Main Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME 3 - month copper, CBOT soybeans and corn, etc., as well as the risk premium of the stock market [6]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of global financial and commodity markets, along with significant macro - economic policies and industry news. It indicates that various markets are influenced by multiple factors such as policy adjustments, supply - demand changes, and economic data fluctuations. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.15% at $3399.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.40% at $37.94 per ounce. The US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September, and market risk - aversion increased [2]. - Oil prices were pressured by increased inventory and weak demand. US crude oil futures fell 1.38% to $63.08 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 0.78% to $66.11 per barrel, mainly due to an unexpected increase in US API crude oil inventory [2]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum, copper, zinc, and lead all increasing. The base metal market may remain volatile in the short term, awaiting more macro - economic and industrial data [2]. - Domestic futures contracts mostly rose, with rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal up over 3%, and fuel oil down over 1% [3]. - International agricultural futures mostly fell, except for US soybeans which rose 2.18%, while US corn and wheat declined [4]. Important News Macroeconomic News - China adjusted the additional tariff measures on US - originated imports, suspending the 24% tariff for 90 days and retaining the 10% tariff [7]. - Guangzhou plans to support the research and launch of power futures at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [7]. - The government introduced a personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy, with a 1 - percentage - point subsidy rate and a 90:10 split between central and provincial finances [7]. - The Fed's Barkin said the uncertainty of the US economic direction is decreasing, but it's unclear whether to focus on inflation or employment [8]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Some second - tier glass companies raised the price of 2.0mm single - layer coated glass, and prices are expected to rise further in late August [11]. - Malaysia's natural rubber production in June increased 5.9% month - on - month but decreased 14.1% year - on - year [11]. - A lithium producer's production line in Chile was shut down, causing the lithium carbonate futures contract to rise [11]. - The domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended as the adjustment amount per ton was less than 50 yuan [11]. Metal Futures - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industry safety [13]. - From January to July 2025, domestic cathode copper production increased by 10.78% year - on - year, with a 14.84% increase in July [14]. Black - Series Futures - The customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port decreased due to system upgrades, but is expected to recover [17]. - A coking enterprise in Shandong plans to implement production restrictions from August 16 to September 3, affecting about 4.1 tons of coke production [17]. - Steel companies such as Ansteel, Bengang, and Lingsteel raised product prices in September [17]. - Iron ore inventories at major ports in Australia and Brazil and in China showed a slight upward trend [18]. - A coal mine in Luliang resumed production after a 22 - day shutdown [18]. - Yunnan cement companies plan to raise prices by 20 - 40 yuan per ton [20]. Agricultural Futures - Importers holding 2025 wheat, corn, rice, cotton, and sugar import tariff quotas should return unused quotas by September 15 [22]. - China imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports starting August 14 [22]. - The estimated 2024/25 edible vegetable oil import volume decreased by 170,000 tons compared to the previous month [23]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory may continue to rise in August [23]. - US private exporters sold 315,488 tons of corn to Mexico [23]. - EU 2025/26 soybean and soybean meal imports decreased compared to last year [25]. - The US Department of Agriculture's 2025/2026 soybean and corn production and inventory expectations differed from market expectations [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued the slow - bull trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.53%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.24%. The trading volume reached 1.91 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.25%, and the Southbound Capital net - bought HK$9.45 billion [27]. - A - share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan for the first time in a decade [29]. - In the first seven months of this year, 53 new stocks were listed in Hong Kong, with a fundraising of about HK$127 billion [29]. - More than 50 A - share listed companies proposed interim dividend plans, with a cash dividend scale exceeding 82 billion yuan [29]. - The A - share market's M&A wave continued to heat up, with over 40 companies disclosing restructuring progress [29]. - Cambrian's stock price hit a record high, but the company refuted rumors [30]. - China Evergrande is approaching delisting [30]. - Tencent Music's Q2 total revenue increased 17.9% year - on - year, and the adjusted net profit increased 33% [31]. Industry - The domestic refined oil price adjustment was suspended [32]. - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition [32]. - Eight dry - process lithium battery separator companies reached consensus on anti - involution [32]. - 534 drugs passed the preliminary review of the 2025 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog [33]. - The July China E - commerce Logistics Index reached a new high for the year [34]. - A national commercial factoring management method is under consultation [34]. - Suzhou adjusted the housing provident fund policy [35]. Overseas - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit also widened [36]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates and threatened legal action against Fed Chairman Powell [37]. - Trump softened his attitude towards Intel's CEO [37]. - The US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [37]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points [37]. - UK employment decline in July was lower than expected, complicating the Bank of England's rate - cut decision [38]. - Eurozone and German economic sentiment indices declined in August [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [41]. - European stocks closed mixed, affected by corporate earnings, geopolitical situation, and Fed policy [41]. - The Japanese stock market hit a record high due to optimism about US tariff policy [41]. - Pony.ai's Q2 total revenue increased 75.9% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold down and silver up [43]. - Oil prices were pressured by inventory increase and weak demand [43]. - OPEC maintained the 2025 global crude oil demand growth forecast and raised the 2026 forecast [45]. - The EIA lowered the 2025 Brent and WTI oil price forecasts [45]. - Most London base metals rose and may remain volatile in the short term [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was under pressure, with rising yields of major interest - rate bonds [46]. - Japan's newly issued 10 - year Treasury bonds had no transactions on Tuesday [46]. - US Treasury yields were mixed, with short - term yields falling and long - term yields rising [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower on Tuesday [48]. - South Korea denied media reports about the 24 - hour won trading implementation time [49]. - The US dollar index fell, and most non - US currencies rose [49]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Economic data to be released include Japan's August Reuters Tankan manufacturing/non - manufacturing sentiment index, Germany's July CPI final value, etc. [51] - Events include China's central bank open - market reverse - repo maturity, the Thai central bank's interest - rate decision, and the IEA's monthly crude oil market report [53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is currently in a state of high supply and low demand, with the LME copper inventory significantly increasing and the overseas Chilean copper mine resuming operations on the 10th. The domestic copper price is supported to some extent by the low inventory and the non - shrinking of smelters, but the overall market is in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [7]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to remain strong in the short term, as the market sentiment was pushed up by the suspension of production at CATL's mining end, and although the sentiment has cooled slightly today, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand side has shown increased activity [8][9]. - The crude oil market is complex. In the short term, it is tight during the peak season, but in the medium and long term, there is increasing downward pressure due to factors such as the OPEC+ plan to increase production in September, the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and the IEA's adjustment of the global crude oil surplus [10]. - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future, affected by factors such as the decrease in asphalt production in August, the weakening of crude oil cost support, and the impact of rainfall on demand [11][12]. - The PP market is expected to fluctuate, with the downstream recovery slow, the inventory pressure high, and the cost side affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan [13]. - The plastic market is expected to fluctuate, with the consumption off - season not over, the inventory pressure large, but the potential boost from the start of agricultural film stocking [14][15]. - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate downward, with the supply increasing, the demand not substantially improved, and the inventory pressure still high [16]. - The coking coal market is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the market sentiment pushed up by news, but the downstream resistant to price increases [18]. - The urea market is expected to have a weak consolidation in the short term, with the downstream demand weakening due to the impact of the parade, but the downward space limited due to export and subsequent demand support [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 12, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Coking coal rose nearly 7%, soda ash rose over 5%, and several other commodities also had significant increases. In terms of declines, rapeseed meal fell 3%, and several other commodities fell over 1%. Among stock index futures, most rose, while among treasury bond futures, most fell [4]. - As of 15:10 on August 12, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601, iron ore 2601, and lithium carbonate 2511 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and glass 2509 had capital outflows [4]. Comment on Specific Varieties Copper - The suspension of the 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods for 90 days and the US CPI data will affect the market. The supply is sufficient with the increase in copper concentrate imports, and the TC/RC fees are rising. The demand is weak due to the high - temperature and rainy season, but the terminal power grid performs well, and the inventory situation supports the domestic price to some extent [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price opened high and closed low today with an intraday increase of over 7%. The suspension of production at CATL's mining end is expected to reduce supply, and the cost side is supportive. The demand side has shown increased activity, but there is still a wait - and - see attitude [8][9]. Crude Oil - It is in the peak consumption season, with the US inventory at a low level. The OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and the price is affected by factors such as the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the global surplus by the IEA, and the price adjustment of Saudi Aramco [10]. Asphalt - The asphalt production is expected to decrease in August. The downstream road asphalt construction is affected by funds and weather. The inventory of asphalt refineries is at a low level, and the cost support is weakening, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly [11][12]. PP - The downstream start - up rate is at a low level in the same period over the years. The cost is affected by the possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the OPEC+ production increase plan. The supply may increase with new capacity, and the demand is weak, so it is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - The start - up rate is at a medium - high level. The downstream demand is in the off - season, but there are some signs of improvement in agricultural film orders. The cost is affected by external factors, and the inventory pressure is large, so it is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is still weak. The export situation is complex, and the inventory is high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, so it is expected to fluctuate downward [16]. Coking Coal - The price opened high and rose in the afternoon. The inventory is being transferred downward, and the downstream demand is strong, but the downstream is resistant to price increases, so it is expected to fluctuate at a high level [18]. Urea - The production is expected to increase slightly in the short term. The demand will be affected by the parade, but the downward space is limited due to export and subsequent demand support, so it is expected to have a weak consolidation [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market opened higher and moved higher today, showing a volatile and relatively strong trend. However, the trading atmosphere in the market has not improved. Upstream factories have started to cut prices to attract orders, but the effect is mediocre. The urea plant equipment has experienced multiple temporary inspections, and the daily production is currently fluctuating around 190,000 tons, showing a month - on - month decrease but still being high year - on - year. There is an expectation of a short - term increase in production. On the demand side, affected by the military parade, downstream melamine production in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be shut down one after another, and the operation of compound fertilizer plants will also start to decrease. The finished product inventory in the plants is rising, and the probability of subsequent concentrated purchases is low. The inventory in the plants has decreased slightly this period, and it is expected to continue to decrease in the short term. Although the downstream has no intention to purchase urea in a concentrated manner for the time being, the demand has resilience. With the support of exports and subsequent purchases by compound fertilizer plants, the downside space for urea is limited. Affected by the military parade this month, downstream demand will weaken in the short term, and the market will be mainly in a weak consolidation state [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened higher and moved higher, with a volatile and relatively strong trend. The trading atmosphere has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. Urea plant equipment has had multiple temporary inspections, with daily production around 190,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month but high year - on - year. One enterprise is expected to resume production this week, with a short - term production increase expected. Downstream demand in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region will be affected by the military parade, and the probability of concentrated purchases is low. The plant inventory has decreased slightly and is expected to continue to do so in the short term. The demand has resilience, and the downside space for urea is limited. The market will be in a weak consolidation state in the short term due to the military parade [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1722 yuan/ton, moved higher, and closed at 1727 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 91,810 lots, a decrease of 17,964 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions decreased by 11,492 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8,616 lots. Rongda Futures' net long positions decreased by 1,045 lots, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions increased by 756 lots, Guotai Junan's net short positions decreased by 2,198 lots, and Hongyuan Futures' net short positions increased by 2,066 lots. On August 12, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,823, an increase of 200 from the previous trading day, with 200 more from Liaoning Fertilizer [2] Spot - The trading atmosphere in the spot market has not improved, and the price - cutting strategy of upstream factories to attract orders has limited effect. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,660 - 1,700 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable and slightly weak today, while the futures closing price increased slightly. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, with the September contract basis at 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on August 12, 2025, the national daily urea production was 191,700 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 81.62% [11]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The suspension of a 24% ad - valorem tariff on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau) for 90 days starting from August 12, 2025, and the US CPI data will impact US inflation and the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. The supply side remains at a high level, with increased copper concentrate imports, and the demand side is in the off - season. The market is currently in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for new drivers [1]. - The LME copper inventory has significantly increased, overseas Chilean copper mines resumed operations on the 10th, while the domestic inventory is low and the smelters' profit is negative. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream buyers prefer low - priced goods. The market is mainly in the range - bound fluctuation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply: The maintenance of an Indonesian smelter was extended until mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the domestic spot TC was - 37.98 dollars per dry ton, and RC was - 3.79 cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is currently no sign of a decline in copper production, and only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - Demand: Due to the hot and rainy weather, the downstream terminal demand is weak. The rise in copper prices has suppressed the downstream's purchasing sentiment. The terminal power grid performs well, but the construction and real estate sectors are a drag. The SHFE inventory has not significantly increased after the copper tariff was implemented, which supports the domestic copper price to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and closed high, showing a strong intraday oscillation, with the closing price at 79,020 yuan per ton. The long positions of the top 20 were 99,690 lots, a decrease of 1,886 lots; the short positions were 102,345 lots, a decrease of 3,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan per ton, and in South China was 5 yuan per ton. On August 11, 2025, the LME official price was 9,722 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 78.50 dollars per ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 3,021 tons from the previous period. As of August 11, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 76,200 tons, an increase of 200 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 155,000 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 265,200 short tons, an increase of 1,056 short tons from the previous period [9].