本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1790 1790 0 河南 1760 1770 -10 山东 1770 1770 0 山西 1640 1640 0 江苏 1790 1790 0 安徽 1780 1790 -10 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1770 1770 0 山东华鲁 1770 1770 0 江苏灵谷 1820 1820 0 安徽昊源 1740 1740 0 山东05基差 -17 0 -17 山东01基差 15 25 -10 河北05基差 3 0 3 河北01基差 35 25 10 1-5价差 33 32 1 5-9价差 32 25 7 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 10969 11181 -212 中东FOB 431 431 0 美湾FOB 434.5 434.5 0 埃及FOB 477.5 477.5 0 波罗的海FOB 415 415 0 巴西CFR 437.5 437.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 仓单 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not specified in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. Although the upstream petrochemical inventory is low and the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity production and the high operating rate compared to PP, and the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 4th, the addition of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou HDPE led to a decline in the plastics operating rate to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders for agricultural films and raw material inventory decreased slightly, and packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted quickly and is currently at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacities were put into production in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the downstream operating rate is expected to continue to decline. The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter - involute, and the plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,811 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,937 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,865 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.64%. The open interest increased by 17,366 lots to 529,051 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 4th, the plastics operating rate dropped to around 91% due to new maintenance devices, and it is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points week - on - week to 37.76%, and it is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 0.5 tons week - on - week to 50 tons, 6 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat week - on - week at 680 US dollars/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that crude oil prices will fluctuate within a range in the near term due to factors such as the OPEC+ production plan, US inventory changes, economic growth forecasts, geopolitical risks, and the weakening of the current cold snap [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March [1]. - Despite the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the winter storm, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventories [1][3]. - The International Monetary Fund raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points last week, and cold weather boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns [1]. - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply - surplus situation. The EIA's latest January report raised the surplus margin for 2026 [1]. - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical risks in Iran remain highly uncertain. Although there were signs of negotiation, there were also recent military - related incidents such as the US shooting down an Iranian drone and reports of Iranian armed boats trying to stop a US - flagged oil tanker [1]. - The next round of Ukraine - issue negotiations will be held in Abu Dhabi from February 4th to 5th [1]. - The US will reduce the so - called "reciprocal tariff" on Indian goods from 25% to 18% immediately. India may increase crude oil purchases from the US, Venezuela, and the Middle East [1]. - The power supply system of the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has been safely restarted, and the repair of the CPC 3rd offshore mooring terminal has been completed. However, the operator said that only half of the oilfield's production capacity can be restored by February 7th [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 2.80% to 462.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 451.7 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 466.7 yuan/ton. The持仓 volume decreased by 5245 to 27679 lots [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3]. - According to EIA data on January 28th, for the week ending January 23rd in the US, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels), refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels), heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of January 23rd decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4]. - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4]. - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4]. - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production led to a 2.49% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of PP has limited improvement, and the spot price followed up limited at the end of January. However, there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution, the upstream petrochemical inventory is low, the basis has been repaired, and the sentiment of bulk commodities has improved. It is expected that PP will fluctuate within a range. Due to the new production capacity of plastics being put into operation recently and the concentrated demand for plastic film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1行情分析 - As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5%. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, the geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile, the US has reduced tariffs on India, and Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a rebound in crude oil prices. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film continued to rebound. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the operating rate of downstream plastic weaving is stable, but its new orders are limited [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1期货方面 - The PP2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upwards. The lowest price was 6727 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6824 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6801 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.15%. The position increased by 11,151 lots to 521,043 lots [2] 3.2.2现货方面 - The spot prices of PP in various regions were mostly stable. The drawstring was reported at 6340 - 6880 yuan/ton [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on February 4th, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring increased to around 29.5% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 52.08% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the same lunar period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, remained flat at 42.04% week - on - week, but plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 50 million tons week - on - week, 6 million tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was reduced rapidly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4原料端原油 - The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 825 US dollars/ton week - on - week [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The copper price continued to rise due to news - related stimuli and the rebound of non - ferrous and precious metals. The news of copper resource reserve announced the previous day brought long - term benefits to copper. After market sentiment stabilizes, copper will remain strong at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and closed with a gain of over 3%. The news that China will improve the copper resource reserve system and the halt of some copper smelting projects, along with the rebound of external precious metals, stimulated the copper price to rise. In terms of fundamentals, the electrolytic copper output in January was 1179300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. The output in February is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market was affected by purchase tax [1]. - The Chilean National Copper Commission Cochilco raised the 2026 copper price forecast, expecting the average copper price to reach $4.95 per pound [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed with a gain of over 3% [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 180 yuan/ton. On February 3, 2026, the LME official price was $13360/ton, and the spot premium was - 65 dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 159800 tons, an increase of 751 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 90300 tons, a decrease of 8600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 176100 tons, an increase of 1450 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 582300 short tons, an increase of 2050 short tons from the previous period [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On February 4, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals such as silver, gold, and copper showed significant increases, while some agricultural products and bonds declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand and market factors affecting their prices. Overall, the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, production policies, and seasonal demand changes [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Commodity Performance - **Futures Market Overview**: As of February 4, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Metals like silver, gold, platinum, and palladium had substantial gains, while some agricultural products like rapeseed meal and rapeseed declined slightly. Stock index futures generally rose, and bond futures mostly fell. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into contracts such as silver 2604 and gold 2604, and flowed out of contracts such as CSI 2603 [7][8]. Market Analysis - **Copper (SHFE)**: Copper prices continued to rise due to news of improving the copper resource reserve system and the rebound of external precious metals. In January, the production of electrolytic copper increased year - on - year, and it is expected to decrease slightly in February. The demand was affected by high prices in January, but the long - term outlook for copper is positive [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate showed a narrow increase. The production rate was high, but the monthly output decreased. Some lithium mines were shut down for rectification, and the inventory continued to decline. The downstream demand was strong, and it is expected to stabilize and strengthen [13]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ members will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although the demand is in the off - season, the US crude oil inventory decreased more than expected. The global economy growth forecast was raised, and the demand concern was alleviated, but the supply is still in an oversupply situation [14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate and shipment volume decreased, and the inventory rate remained low. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil was restricted, which affected production and cost. It is expected to follow the crude oil price and fluctuate, and it is recommended to take reverse arbitrage [16]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate of PP decreased slightly, the enterprise start - up rate was at a medium - low level, and the inventory was at a low level in recent years. Due to the unstable geopolitical situation and the rebound of crude oil prices, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [18]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate of plastic decreased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate was at a low level. New production capacity was put into operation, and the demand was weak. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [19]. - **PVC**: The start - up rate of PVC increased slightly, and the downstream start - up rate decreased. The export orders increased, but the social inventory was still high. It is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the policy and market sentiment [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal rose. The production and import decreased marginally, and the inventory of mines decreased. The downstream winter storage was in the final stage, and the next round of coke price increase is expected to be difficult [24]. - **Urea**: The price of urea turned red at the end of the day. The production was higher than the same period in previous years, and the upstream factory's order - attracting pressure increased. The inventory decreased before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be weakly stable before the festival [25].

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 1 月 28 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 147.21 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 1.46 万吨。其中，华东地区累库，库存增加 4.76 万吨；华南 地区去库，库存减少 3.3 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存继续积累，累库主要表现在华 东地区，周期内外轮显性卸货 19.14 万吨，全部卸入华东。周内江苏沿江主流库 区提货减弱，浙江有烯烃重启，但总体在外轮供应补充下库存积累。华南地区周 内广东仅少量内贸补充，但主流库区提货减弱，因无外轮补充供应，因此库存去 库；福建地区周内无卸货，库存同步去库。 【宏观面分析】 美国总统特朗普：尚未讨论委内瑞拉在石油利润中的份额。印度即将介入并 购买委内瑞拉石油。由于特朗普周末表示伊朗正与华盛顿进行"认真谈话"，释 放出与该欧佩克成员国局势降温的信号，WTI 原油暴跌。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 日内小幅震荡，支撑关注小时级别 60 日均线，中期继续关注库存持续去化 的兑现，可以适当关注超跌之后的低 ...

4、 ABS 产能利用率 66.8%，环比下降 3%，厂家供应依旧十分紧张，控量发 货为主，且进入 1 月份后多为高价货源，节后归来市场询盘问价增多，成交放量， 价格呈现反弹。此外，UPR 产能利用率 38%，环比下降 1%；丁苯橡胶开工 82.92%， 环比持稳。 【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：止跌反弹，关注库存变化 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【基本面分析】 1、截至 1 月 27 日，1 月苯乙烯华东江苏主流库区总库存量在 9.45-12.33 万吨区间波动。苯乙烯华东主要港口的库存整体仍处于历史低位区间，现货流通 性仍偏紧。 2、从下游三大领域（EPS、PS 和 ABS）的生产情况来看，截至 1 月 22 日当 周，EPS 产能利用率 58.71%，环比增长 4.66%，下游需求淡季，商家追涨情绪谨 慎，整体成交氛围欠佳。 3、 PS 产能利用率 57.3%，环比下降 0.1%，南京装置恢复、广西长科重启， 但连云港石化、宁波利万各减 1 条线，行业供应暂时稳定，行业总供应量平稳， 市场出货一般，库存转为上涨。 冠通期货 黄德志 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：印尼消息刺激，盘面上涨 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内高开高走，上涨近 4%。春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假期，部分 大型煤矿库存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核 定产能利用率为 89.13%，环比减少 0.2%。原煤日均产量达到 197.82 万吨。进 口煤及国内生产边际减少，本期焦煤矿山库存去库，周度环比减少 7.17 万吨， 上周焦化企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周 加快，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声 阶段，下游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万吨。焦炭一轮提涨落地，焦企利润回升，但钢厂利润减少，下一轮提 涨预计难度高，下游冬储虽仍在进行，但已进入收尾阶段。据外媒援引印尼行 业官员 2 月 3 日表示，由于印尼政府提议大规模削减煤炭产量，部分印尼矿商 已暂停现货煤炭出口，亚洲买家暂时难以获得印尼煤炭供应。受市场消息刺激 影响，今日焦煤价格上行，但国内焦煤受印尼出口影响不大，且消息尚 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：南美大豆丰产预期加强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 豆粕：USDA 压榨数据月报：12 月份美国大豆压榨量创下历史次高水平。美 国 12 月份的大豆压榨量为 2.299 亿蒲（相当于 689.6 万短吨），比 11 月份的 2.205 亿蒲增长 4.2%，较 2024 年 12 月的 2.177 亿蒲增长 5.6%。12 月份压榨量 为单月压榨量第二高点，仅次于 2025 年 10 月创下的 2.363 亿蒲。CONAB 作物进 展报告：截至 2026 年 1 月 31 日，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 11.4%，高 于一周前的 6.6%，去年同期 8.0%，五年同期均值 11.8%。马托格罗索的收获进 度为 33.2%，去年同期 14.7%，五年均值 29.3%。帕拉纳州的收获进度为 5%，去 年同期 18%，五年均值 10.8%。 机构大幅上调巴西 2025/26 年度产量估值，收获进度优于去年，尽管局部天 气仍存变数，但市场对于南美丰产及供应宽松的一致性预期正得到进一步强化。 不过由于节后大豆抛储和到港仍然存在一定的不确定性，不建议过度看空，保守 ...