【冠通期货研究报告】 弱势回调 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开低走，日内震荡下跌。尿素现货价格小幅上涨，待发支撑 下，报价依然坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1630-1700 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端，其他地方工厂成交价略有上移。日产 回落后，压力有缓解，但目前肥易通数据显示，依然在 19 万吨以上徘徊。后续 随着西南地区装置的不断停车，将继续降低产量。需求端继续走强，本期复合 肥工厂开工负荷提升 3.47%，冬储肥生产阶段，厂内成品库存开始累积增加， 终端备肥相对顺畅，工厂将继续提升开工负荷，支撑原料端价格。其他工业需 求同样稳中有增，尚且未拖累尿素需求。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。综合来看，近期限气预期、宏观提振及出口传闻，冬 储需求均支撑尿素价格，盘面下方有支撑，临近移仓换月，谨慎多空，关注周 末收单情况。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内震荡下跌， 最终收于 1673 元/吨，收成一 ...

PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 截至12月5日当周，PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%，塑编订单环比小幅下降，略低于去年同期。12月5 日，新增中景石化一期二线等检修装置，PP企业开工率下跌至82%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉 丝生产比例下降至27%左右。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，特 朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大， 里海管道联盟2号单点系泊严重受损，原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能40万吨/年的中石油广 西石化10月中旬投产，近期检修装置略有增加。下游进入旺季尾声，塑编等订单开始下降，BOPP膜 价格下跌后暂稳，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，对行情提振有限，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。国家 发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工 作，给予大宗商品一定提振，但PP供需格局整体未改，宏观暂未有进一步利好，预计近期PP偏弱震 荡。 【期现行情】 【冠通期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 5, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film entering the end of the peak season and orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - end crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. New production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and the trading atmosphere of plastics is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6674 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%. The position increased by 7056 lots to 393540 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price range from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6920 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8390 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6880 - 7580 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 5, new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 5, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: The Friday's petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fluctuated around 63 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 720 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 US dollars/ton [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 1 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。不过美国活跃石油钻井平台大 幅减少12座，提升了低油价对于美国原油增长受限的预期。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯 基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落，普京与 美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的 实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达 成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对 委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。消 费旺季结束、美国11月份ISM制造业指数环比下降，连续第九个月萎缩，市场担忧原油需求，OPEC+持 续增产，中东地区出口增加 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.33个百分点至79.89%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将关于 PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价 换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨，上周出口签单环比回落。本周社会库 存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新 开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市 商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合 利润仍为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产， 30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及 相关行业协会召开会议，研究制定价格无序竞争成本认定标准等相关工作，给予大宗商品 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月05日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青 开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。本周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中 性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表 示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌 停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大，原油价格低位震荡。 委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀 释沥青贴水幅度扩大。下周齐鲁石化计划转产沥青，沥青开工率将略有上升。北方气温下降后，道 路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求将进一步转弱，南方项目增量有限，整体需求一般。近期山东地区沥青 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 05 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 05 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。集运欧线涨超 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 15300.81 318.45 8984.73 285.07 2699.3 38.02 232.3 80.16 87.08 36.36 -1.50 上期 15210.12 330.58 8942.48 289.43 2817.1 40.1 234.68 81.09 87.98 35.06 -0.50 周变动 90.69 -12.13 42.25 -4.36 -117.80 -2.08 -2.38 -0.93 -0.9 1.3 -1.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11707.87 2036.49 290.54 1265.91 本期 10014.85 5834.53 6530.67 上期 11643.97 1979.37 302.35 1284.43 上期 9914.7 5987.03 6307.46 周变动 63.9 57.12 -11.81 -18.52 周变动 100.15 -152.5 223.21 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 80.74 80.08 0.66 开工率 73.627 74.514 -0.887 产量 70.39 69.82 0.57 产线条数 218 220 -2 重质产量 38.15 38.31 -0.16 产量 108.5095 110.3895 -1.88 轻质产量 32.24 31.51 0.73 厂内库存 153.86 158.74 -4.88 库存 5944.2 6236.2 -292 重质库存 81.08 84.68 -3.6 库存可用天数 26.8 27.5 -0.7 轻质库存 72.78 74.06 -1.28 库存可用天数 12.76 13.16 -0.4 产销率 106.93 108.16 -1.23 天然气利润 -223 -227.27 4.27 氨碱法毛利 -68.5 -38.5 -30 石油焦利润 21.36 -31.48 52.84 联产法毛利 -98.5 -140 41.5 煤制气利润 6.52 4.5 2.02 基差 -30 -30 0 基差 47 16 31 1-5价差 70 58 12 1-5价差 121 115 6 品种套利 纯碱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively covers overnight market trends of various futures, significant macro - economic news, and updates on financial markets including stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and commodities. It also details upcoming events and their potential impacts on relevant industries [3][7][30]. 3. Summaries Based on Different Categories Overnight Night - Market Futures Trends - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: WTI crude oil rose 1.27% to $59.7/barrel, Brent crude oil rose 1.04% to $63.32/barrel. Singapore fuel oil inventory increased, while light distillate inventory decreased [4][13]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: COMEX gold rose 0.13% to $4237.9/ounce, COMEX silver fell 1.86% to $57.53/ounce [5]. - **Base Metals Futures**: LME lead, zinc, and nickel rose, while aluminum, copper, and tin fell [5]. - **Domestic Futures**: At 23:00, domestic futures had more decliners than gainers. Coke and corn rose over 1%, while caustic soda and ethylene glycol fell over 1% [6]. Important Macroeconomic News - **Shipping**: There's no specific schedule for the shipping industry to resume Suez Canal voyages, with a 60 - 90 - day transition period expected [8]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On December 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 1 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations for 3 months [8]. - **Tax Policy**: Since December 9, 2025, Kuwaiti - flagged taxable ships will enjoy preferential ship tonnage tax rates [8]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From January to October 2025, global new - energy passenger vehicle sales reached 17.36 million, up 30% year - on - year. In October, sales were 2.11 million, up 17% year - on - year but down 3% month - on - month [9]. - **US Labor Market**: US initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000 in the week ending November 29, the lowest since September 2022 [9]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: 82% of economists surveyed by Reuters expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - **Float Glass**: As of December 4, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.442 million heavy boxes, down 4.68% month - on - month and up 23.25% year - on - year [12]. - **Alumina**: A group in Xinjiang and Yunnan conducted alumina spot procurement tenders with different winning prices [12]. - **Soda Ash**: As of December 4, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.5386 million tons, down 3.07% from last Thursday [12]. - **Singapore Fuel Inventory**: As of the week ending December 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory rose, light distillate inventory fell, and medium distillate inventory rose [13]. - **Saudi Crude Oil Price**: Saudi Aramco will set the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil to Asia in January at a premium of $0.6/barrel over the regional benchmark, the lowest since January 2021 [13]. - **Methanol Inventory**: As of December 4, East China port methanol inventory was 721,400 tons, down 24,100 tons from November 27 [14]. Metal Futures - **Silver**: Only about 28% of global silver minerals come from "primary silver mines". BNP Paribas predicts silver prices may reach $100/ounce by the end of next year [17]. - **Polysilicon**: In November 2025, domestic polysilicon production was 114,600 tons, down 14.48% from October. December's planned production is expected to decline further [17]. - **Gold**: The World Gold Council believes that in 2026, geopolitical uncertainty will affect the gold market, and gold prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. - **Lithium Salt**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd.'s 40,000 - ton lithium salt project is operating smoothly, with a daily output of 60 - 70 tons and a purity of over 99.7% [17]. - **Copper Supply**: Bridge Copper secures a monthly supply of 50,000 tons of copper concentrate and Grade A cathode copper [18]. Black - Series Futures - **Rebar**: As of the week ending December 4, rebar production and apparent demand decreased for the second consecutive week, while factory and social inventories decreased for the eighth consecutive week [21]. - **Rebar Delivery Rules**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued regulations on rebar futures delivery [21]. - **Steel Inventory**: In late November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased by 4.4% month - on - month [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - **Imported Cotton**: As of December 4, the inventory of imported cotton at major ports was 387,600 tons, up 1.92% week - on - week [23]. - **Brazilian Sugar**: As of the week ending December 3, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 11.67% [23]. - **Guangxi Sugar Mills**: As of now, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi have started the 2025/2026 crushing season, 22 fewer than the same period last year [23]. - **Pig and Corn Prices**: As of November 26, the national live - hog ex - factory price was 12.09 yuan/kg, down 1.23% from November 19. The pig - to - corn price ratio was 5.3, down 1.3% [25]. - **Indian Sugar Exports**: Since November 14, over 100,000 tons of Indian sugar export contracts have been signed for immediate delivery [25]. - **Brazilian Agricultural Product Exports**: Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes in December are expected to be 2.81 million tons, 1.33 million tons, and 4.99 million tons respectively [25]. - **Canadian Agriculture**: In 2025, Canada's wheat and rapeseed production is expected to increase by 11.2% and 13.3% respectively [26]. - **US Soybean Exports**: In the 2025/2026 season, US soybean export net sales were 1.248 million tons, and net sales to China were 232,000 tons [26]. - **Indian Soybean Oil**: Indian refiners cancelled 70,000 tons of soybean oil import contracts [27]. - **Brazilian Soybean Exports**: In November, Brazil's soybean exports increased by 64% year - on - year to 4.2 million tons [28]. Financial Markets - **A - Shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.4%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.01%. The market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan [31]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 0.68%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.45%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.86%. Southbound capital net - bought HK$1.48 billion, and Tencent was net - sold HK$1.346 billion [31]. - **Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect**: As of December 4, the total trading volume of Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect was 131 trillion yuan [31]. - **Corporate News**: Cambrian refuted rumors about production capacity, and Moore Threads listed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, raising 8 billion yuan [31][32]. - **Insider Trading**: A former director of Hong Kong Central Securities Registration was found guilty of insider trading [32]. - **New Stocks**: Two Hong Kong - listed new stocks broke below their issue prices in the grey market [34]. Industry News - **Infrastructure**: The Future Network Test Facility in the information and communication field was officially put into operation [35]. - **Food Delivery**: The market regulator issued a recommended national standard for food - delivery platforms [35]. - **Real Estate**: In November, the transaction volume of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities reached a 7 - month high. In December, new - house supply is expected to decline, but sales may recover [35]. - **Electric Bicycles**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology guided enterprises to optimize electric - bicycle designs [36]. - **Basketball Reform**: The General Administration of Sport issued an opinion on basketball reform, encouraging foreign investment [36]. Overseas News - **US - China Trade**: The US - China Business Council believes that tariff reduction shows the US acknowledges the negative impact of tariffs on domestic prices [38]. - **US Trade Agreement**: Trump may withdraw from the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement next year [38]. - **US Economy**: US real - wage growth is higher than inflation, and there are expectations of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut [39]. - **US Labor Market**: US initial jobless claims decreased, but non - farm employment decreased in November, and Challenger job cuts increased [39]. - **Japan Interest Rate**: The Bank of Japan is likely to raise the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% in December [39]. - **EU Gene Editing**: The EU reached an agreement on gene - editing technology in agriculture [40]. International Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07%, the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.22%. The US SEC postponed the short - selling disclosure deadline [42]. - **European Stocks**: European major stock indexes rose, driven by positive ADP employment data in the US [42]. - **EU Financial Plan**: The EU launched a plan to break financial barriers and create a unified capital market [43]. Commodities - **Crude Oil**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions [44]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold rose and COMEX silver fell, influenced by interest - rate expectations and market demand [45]. - **Base Metals**: LME base metals had mixed performance, and a large - scale copper withdrawal plan affected copper prices [46]. - **Gold Outlook**: The World Gold Council believes gold prices may fluctuate in 2026 but could rise 15% - 3000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000