工业刚需托底盘面 【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏弱。现货市场及交投情绪疲软，受出口消息的 影响，大颗粒小颗粒价格走势背离。基本面来看，供应端有小幅减产预期，近 期日产维持在 19 万吨左右的水平，减产占比低，目前暂不能改变供应过剩格 局，需求端，农业需求零星拿货为主，复合肥工厂开工率继续攀升，且预计将 持续上行，开工负荷拉升后，后期对尿素需求增加，但目前市场情绪均不高， 工厂以适量拿货为主，预售单的情况下，不急于原料的采购，并且秋季复合肥 以高磷复合肥为主。本期装置检修增加，尿素转为库存去化，出口消息扰动盘 面价格波动，但数据不及预期，行情下挫。目前下游普遍观望，情绪跟进较为 谨慎，并且复合肥工厂后期预计不会集中拿货了，短期偏空震荡为主，但后续 依然有工业需求的托底，后续行情下方空间有限。 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 尿素注册仓单（张） 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 1400 1800 2200 2600 3000 3400 山东尿素市场主流价 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：震荡下行 制作日期：2025年8月8日 【策略分析】 逢高做空 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.4个百分点至31.7%，较去年同期高了5.2个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回落，仍处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，8月份国内沥青预计排产241.3万吨， 环比减少12.9万吨，减幅为5.1%，同比增加35.3万吨，增幅为17.1%。本周，沥青下游各行业开工率 涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨2个百分点至29%，略高于前两年同期水平，受到资金和南方 降雨高温制约。本周，华东地区主力炼厂高负荷生产，加之天气好转后船发发货量良好，出货量增 加较多，全国出货量环比增加2.90%至28.03万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比 继续下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位。美国允许雪佛龙恢复在委内瑞拉开采石油，或将导致中国 购买沥青原料的贴水幅度缩小。下周江苏新海、山东个别炼厂计划复产，部分地区降雨仍将影响沥 青刚需，加之船期集中到港，原油成本支撑走弱，预计近期沥青偏弱震荡。 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2510合约下跌1.58%至3478元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3467元/吨， ...

【冠通研究】 智利矿山引发供应预期，下游需求韧性偏强 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 8 日 【策略分析】 今日盘面低开高走，偏强震荡。特朗普提名经济顾问委员会主席斯蒂芬·米兰担任 美联储理事，任期至明年 1 月底。与此同时，将继续寻找永久性的替代人选。基本面来 看，智利铜矿事件扰动铜市场的供应预期，且伦铜库存大幅累库，供应双重扰动博弈，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负 值，但已经止跌回升，冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修计划，冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副 产品弥补亏损，目前淡季下需求疲软，终端需求萎缩，抢出口的情况下，需求有前置， 透支后期需求，市场交投情绪不温不火。铜半成品后续被征收关税，可能将影响出口需 求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面价格。综合来看，美联储降息预 期依然在博弈，近日降息预期不断地增强，美元指数低位震荡，市场宏观与基本面博弈 下，沪铜维持窄幅波动，下游疲软的需求下，市场看空情绪浓厚，但目前国内上期所的 低位库存带来强支撑，下方支撑行情关注 78000 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Market**: As of August 8th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium rose over 7%, while SC crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. fell over 2%. In terms of capital flow, funds flowed into gold, carbonate lithium, and soybean oil, and out of CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 futures [4]. - **Specific Commodities**: - **Copper**: Under the game between macro and fundamentals, copper prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Although the market has a strong bearish sentiment due to weak downstream demand, the low inventory in domestic warehouses provides strong support, with the lower support level at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the expected reduction in supply and optimistic downstream production schedules, carbonate lithium is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, the risk of supply information being false should be noted [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, due to the seasonal peak season for travel, the market is tight. But in the medium - to - long - term, with the planned increase in production by OPEC+ and the possible cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, the downward pressure on crude oil prices increases, and the volatility is large [10]. - **Asphalt**: With the decline in the start - up rate and the weakening of cost support, asphalt is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - **PP**: The PP industry is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended due to factors such as high inventory, slow downstream recovery, and lack of actual anti - involution policies [13]. - **Plastic**: The plastic industry is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended because of high inventory, slow new order follow - up, and lack of actual anti - involution policies, although the preparation for agricultural film may bring some boost [14][15]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended. With increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory, its own fundamentals are under great pressure [16]. - **Coking Coal**: Coking coal is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Although the downstream demand is strong, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the resistance to price increases has emerged [17][18]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short - term, but the downward space is limited due to the support of industrial demand in the future [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - **Price Changes**: As of August 8th, carbonate lithium rose over 7%, and SC crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, IF and IH fell, while IC rose slightly, and IM fell. Among treasury bond futures, TS, TF, and T rose, and TL fell [4]. - **Capital Flow**: As of 15:19 on August 8th, funds flowed into gold, carbonate lithium, and soybean oil futures, and out of CSI 1000, CSI 300, and CSI 500 futures [4]. **Analysis of Specific Commodities** - **Copper**: The supply is affected by the Chilean copper mine incident and inventory accumulation, and the demand is weak. Under the game between macro and fundamentals, copper prices fluctuate within a narrow range, with the lower support at 78,000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: With the expected reduction in supply and optimistic downstream production schedules, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the risk of supply information being false should be noted [8]. - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, the market is tight due to the seasonal peak season for travel. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward pressure increases with the planned increase in production by OPEC+ and the possible cease - fire in Russia - Ukraine, and the volatility is large [10]. - **Asphalt**: The start - up rate has declined, and the cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but the inventory is high, and the downstream recovery is slow. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is high. The consumption off - season has not ended, but the preparation for agricultural film may bring some boost. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply has increased, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply may be reduced, and the downstream demand is strong. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level, but the market sentiment has cooled down [17][18]. - **Urea**: The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is expected to increase in the future. It is expected to fluctuate bearishly in the short - term, but the downward space is limited [19].

铁矿石库存周度数据 研究咨询部 下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 13712.27 321.85 9013.34 298.14 2507.8 39.16 240.32 83.75 90.09 68.4 -20.00 上期 13657.9 302.71 9012.09 299.46 2240.5 39.38 240.71 83.46 90.24 65.37 -15.00 周变动 54.37 19.14 1.25 -1.32 267.30 -0.22 -0.39 0.29 -0.15 3.03 -5.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 10571.32 1689.71 336.82 1114.42 本期 8984.9 4872.07 6138.1 上期 10493.62 1717.06 380.14 1067.08 上期 8921.45 4843.07 5996.85 周变动 77.7 -27.35 -43.32 47.34 周变动 63.45 29 141.25 2025/ ...

Hot News - The national policy of exempting childcare and education fees for all kindergarten seniors is expected to benefit about 12 million children this fall, reducing family expenses by 20 billion yuan [2] - S&P maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A+" and outlook at "stable". China's macro - policies will continue to exert force in the second half of the year [2] - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. The total in the first seven months was 25.7 trillion yuan, up 3.5% [2] - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves were 329.22 billion US dollars, down 2.52 billion US dollars from June. Gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces to 73.96 million ounces, the 9th consecutive monthly increase [2] - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [3] Key Focus - Focus on urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, asphalt, and PP [4] Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.78%, precious metals 27.77%, oilseeds 12.55%, non - ferrous metals 20.75%, soft commodities 2.49%, coal - coke - steel - ore 15.06%, energy 3.26%, chemicals 11.42%, grains 1.17%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.74% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented in the data [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16% daily, 1.86% monthly, and 8.59% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.69% daily, 1.24% monthly, and 25.03% annually. In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.05% daily, 0.12% monthly, and - 0.28% annually. In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index rose 0.25% daily, - 1.97% monthly, and - 0.96% annually; London spot gold rose 0.82% daily, 3.25% monthly, and 29.44% annually [6]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/08/08 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.44%报 3482.70 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 1.66%报 38.53 美元/盎司。 2. 欧佩克增产打压油价，美油主力合约收跌 0.82%，报 63.82 美元/桶；布伦特 原油主力合约跌 0.81%，报 66.35 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数上涨，LME 期锡涨 1.37%报 33835.00 美元/吨，LME 期锌涨 0.97%报 2815.50 美元/吨，LME 期铅涨 0.63%报 2007.00 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.06%报 9670.50 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。菜粕涨超 1%。跌幅方面，氧化铝跌超 2%，玻 璃、纯碱、低硫燃料油（LU）跌超 1%，焦炭、热卷跌近 1%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is in a seasonal travel peak season, with US crude oil inventories at a low level. Although overall oil product inventories have increased, there are concerns about supply and demand. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may intensify the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, adding medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is still uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased. It is recommended to operate in a range and be cautious [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - It is recommended to operate in a range. The market is worried about the decline in Russian and Iranian crude oil supplies due to political factors. The US economic concerns and OPEC+ production increase plan may lead to a supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict has increased, increasing the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on crude oil, but there is uncertainty, and crude oil volatility has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2509 fell 0.63% to 501.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 497.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 510.9 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 854 to 31,576 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA lowered the 2025 US crude oil production forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 13.37 million barrels per day and raised the global oil inventory increase in the second half of 2025 from 800,000 barrels per day to 900,000 barrels per day. IEA lowered the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate by 16,000 barrels per day to 704,000 barrels per day and the 2026 growth rate by 18,000 barrels per day to 722,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained the 2025 and 2026 global crude oil demand growth rates at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively. As of the week of August 1, US crude oil, gasoline, and refined oil inventories decreased, while aviation kerosene and other oil product inventories increased [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, OPEC's May crude oil production was adjusted down by 6,000 barrels per day to 27.016 million barrels per day, and its June 2025 production increased by 219,000 barrels per day to 27.235 million barrels per day. US crude oil production in the week of August 1 decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 13.284 million barrels per day. On the demand side, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased, with gasoline demand decreasing and diesel demand increasing. The single - week supply of US crude oil products continued to decrease [4].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 7 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 7 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。碳酸锂涨超 5%，红枣、焦煤 涨超 2%，焦炭涨近 2%。跌幅方面，多晶硅、烧碱跌超 2%，尿素、硅铁跌超 1%。 沪深 300 股指期货（IF）主力合约跌 0.15%，上证 50 股指期货（IH）主力合约跌 0.01%，中证 500 股指期货（IC）主力合约跌 0.64%，中证 1000 股指期货（IM） 主力合约跌 0.30%。2 年期国债期货（TS）主力合约持平，5 年期国债期货（TF） 主力合约涨 0.05%，10 年期国债期货（T）主力合约涨 0.05%，30 年期国债期货 （TL）主力合约涨 0.03%。 资金流向截至 08 月 07 日 15:25，国内期货主力合约资金流入方面，沪深 300 2509 流入 12.11 亿，焦煤 2601 流入 8.85 亿，沪金 2510 流入 6.12 亿；资金流 出方面，豆油 2509 流出 5.79 亿，菜油 ...

制作日期：2025 年 8 月 7 日 【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 盘面偏强震荡 今日盘面高开高走，偏强震荡。特朗普拟对芯片产品征 100%关税，苹果等在美建厂 企业可豁免。基本面来看，智利铜矿事件扰动铜市场的供应预期，且伦铜库存大幅累 库，供应双重扰动博弈，7 月 SMM 中国电解铜产量环比大增 3.94 万吨，同比上升 14.21%。TC/RC 费用依然处于负值，但已经止跌回升，冶炼厂三季度有三家工厂有检修 计划，冶炼厂仍能依靠硫酸等副产品弥补亏损，目前淡季下需求疲软，终端需求萎缩， 抢出口的情况下，需求有前置，透支后期需求，市场交投情绪不温不火。铜半成品后续 被征收关税，可能将影响出口需求。上期所库存依然在低位，暂未大幅累库，支撑盘面 价格。综合来看，下游铜材需求疲弱，铜价承压运行，但目前库存压力依然不大，显性 库存环比有去化，美联储降息预期依然在博弈，近日降息预期不断地增强，下方支撑行 情关注 78000 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 1 【期现行情】 期货方面：沪铜盘面高开高走，偏强震荡。报收于 ...