【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 棉花：当前棉花市场处于"国内基本面支撑、国际宏观压制"的格局之中。 尽管国内棉花销售进度和纱价表现仍存支撑，但随着春节假期临，下游生产进入 收尾阶段，市场整体驱动趋弱。短期棉价预计以区间震荡为主，后续需关注节后 纺织企业复工节奏、全球贸易政策走向及美国新棉种植意向等中长期变量对市场 的影响。近期市场成交主要以前期"锁基差，后点价"合同落地为主，纺织企业 等补库的积极性消退，棉企也无意在节前抢出货，市场进入平静期。预估节前仍 然保持宽幅震荡格局。 白糖：截至 1 月底云南累计产糖 98.41 万吨！同比上榨季增长 17.56%，云 南省 2025/26 榨季截至 1 月 31 日累计开榨糖厂 50 家，累计入榨甘蔗 814.47 万 吨，产糖 98.41 万吨，同比上榨季同期增长 14.7 万吨，增幅 17.56%；产糖率 12.08%， 略低于上榨季同期的 12.34%。截至 1 月 31 日，云南省累计销售新糖 53.20 万吨， 销糖率 54.06%，与上榨季同期（54.03%）基本持平，工业库存 45.21 万吨。其 中 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报：延续反弹 消息方面，财联社 2 月 3 日电，据报道，印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼 政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼上月向主要矿商下 达的产量配额比 2025 年水平降低 40%至 70%，作为该国提振煤价计划的一部分。 焦炭的供需格局直接受制于上游的焦煤成本、下游钢铁需求以及宏观政策导 向；焦煤焦炭综合库存延续回升、季节性累库阶段，供需整体偏弱。下游钢厂年 前补库临近尾声、焦炭需求进一步下滑。不过焦化持续亏损，焦企提涨意愿较强； 宏观层面政策预期仍存；综合来看，焦炭短期延续反弹，低多思路对待，关注前 高附近压力。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 4 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存，截至 1 月 30 日焦炭综合库存增加 13.3 万吨至 1012.35 万吨，位 于 7 个半月高位，同比降幅达到 3.44%。 利润方面，全国 30 家独立焦化厂吨焦盈利-55 元/吨，其中山东准一级焦平 均盈利转正至 2 元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利 0 元/吨，山西准一级焦平均盈利 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/4 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期市日盘多数收跌，贵金属走势分化，沪银跌 16.71%，钯涨 8.62%； 基本金属跌幅居前，沪锡跌 6.7%；能源品全部下跌，原油跌 4.93%。贵金属、基 本金属夜盘反弹，沪银涨 5.93%，沪金涨 4.2%，沪锡涨 6.64%。 2.国际贵 ...

早盘速递 2026/2/4 热点资讯 1.美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。此前，美国国会众议院投票通过联邦政府多个部门本财年剩余 时间拨款法案，从1月31日开始的联邦政府部分"停摆"僵局得以化解。 第 2 页，共 3 页 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，资讯来自于金十期货、Wind资讯等，冠通研究整理 股市风险偏好 主要大宗商品走势 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00 500.00 550.00 600.00 650.00 700.00 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 波罗的海干散货指数(BDI) CRB现货指数:综合:右轴 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 伦敦现货黄金:以美元计价 伦敦现货白银:以美元计价：右轴 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 期货官方价:L ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. The demand for crude oil is in the off - season. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted the demand for diesel for heating, alleviating demand concerns. However, the global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest EIA January monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand situation. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. The cold wave is weakening, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected due to winter storms, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventories have decreased. The International Monetary Fund has raised the world economic growth rate for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather has boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns. The global floating storage of crude oil is high, and the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. Geopolitical risks such as those related to Iran and Ukraine have cooled down. Trump has reduced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. India may stop buying Russian oil and buy more from the U.S. and possibly Venezuela. The Tianji oilfield in Kazakhstan will gradually resume production, but only half of the production capacity can be restored before February 7. Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, the current cold wave has weakened, and the impact of the next cold wave should be monitored. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Today, the main crude oil futures contract 2603 fell 4.93% to 449.4 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.4 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 453.9 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 4567 to 31633 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report has raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA has raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but also raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels, refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels, heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3]. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products has increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline has increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year. The weekly production of diesel has increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production is 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year. The production of gasoline and diesel has increased month - on - month, driving the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [4].

发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡偏弱，收于 777.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价有所回落-5.5 元/吨，跌幅-0.7%，成交 35.7 万手，持仓 量 51.9 万手，沉淀资金 88.75 亿。短期震荡偏弱。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 791 跌+4，超特粉 678 跌 +4，掉期主力 101.95(-0.85)美元/吨。现货坚挺、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 830.1 元/吨，基差 52.6 元/吨， 基差小幅走扩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 11 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，短期稍显破位，震荡有所走弱。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运有所增加，主要是澳洲有所修复，巴西和非主流国家仍有下 滑；本期到港继续走弱，前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰 动预期；需求端，铁水产量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，钢厂 补库速度加快，钢厂库存快速累积，关注节前铁水恢复高度和补库需求释放节 奏。库存方面，港口继续累库，压港库存 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力今日高开高走，日内震荡偏强。120 分钟布林带走缩 口喇叭，短期震荡信号。盘中压力继续关注日线的 20、60 均线附近，支撑关注 布林带下轨线附近。成交量较昨日减 41.5 万手，持仓量较昨日减 34986 手；日 内最高 1084，最低 1062，收盘 1072，（较昨结算价）涨 3 元/吨，涨幅 0.28%。 2，现货市场：华北，价格多稳定，部分上调，适量备货；华东，交投转淡， 下游维持刚需拿货；华中，偏稳运行，中下游拿货理性，刚需为主；华南，除部 分成交灵活外，多数仍维稳为主，多数下游收尾中，采购刚需为主。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-52 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，本周浮法玻璃总产量 105.7 万吨，环比持平， 同比-3.375%。行业平均开工率 71.86%，环比+0.24%；行业平均产能利用率 75.7%， 环比持平（数据自 2025 年 8 月 31 日起修正）。1 月有 2 条产线冷修，但新增复 产点火 1 条产线，整体供应压 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a general rating of "oscillating weakly" for the soft commodity industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation pattern before the festival. The sugar market is at a cyclical bottom, with prices oscillating at a low level and no obvious short - term upward drive [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Cotton - Supply side: The pressure of the previous high - yield has been basically digested. Although the output increased significantly, the increase in commercial inventory is much lower than the output increase. The market circulation supply is relatively tight, and the high spot basis continues to support cotton prices [1] - Demand side: It was resilient before, but affected by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference, imported cotton and yarn impact the domestic market. Since January, textile mills' profits have been continuously compressed, some inland mills' losses have expanded, and some enterprises plan to have an early holiday. There is no clear short - term demand trend [1] Sugar - International situation: Consultancy Stonex expects the 2026/27 sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region to be 40.7 million tons, 0.8 million tons less than the previous estimate, and the ethanol production to be 36.5 billion liters, 0.4 billion liters more than the previous estimate. As of January 31, 2026, India's 2025/26 sugar production reached 19.503 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.024 million tons or 18.35%, and the number of operating sugar mills increased by 14 to 515 [2] - Domestic situation: The domestic sugar futures price declined with the market, but it is approaching the southern sugar mills' production cost, so the downside is limited [2]

纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇 叭，短期震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，短线支撑关注布林带下轨附 近。成交量较昨日减 75.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 12315 手；日内最高 1215，最 低 1187，收盘 1201，（较昨结算价）跌 14 元/吨，跌幅 1.15%。 2，现货市场：弱稳维持。企业装置运行稳定，企业新订单接收一般。下游 企业有一定原料储备，备货意愿不佳，保持低价按需为主。 【冠通期货研究报告】 力度不足，未出现大规模集中补库。 利润方面，据隆众资讯统计，联碱法理论利润（双吨）为-26.5 元/吨，环比 增加 13.5 元/吨。氨碱法理论利润-88.35 元/吨，环比增加 7.95 元/吨。周内原 料端矿盐价格稳定，动力煤价格震荡下行，成本略有下滑。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 49 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 29 日，国内纯碱产量 78.31 万吨，环比增加 1.14 万 吨，涨幅 1.47%。其中，轻碱产量 36.20 万吨， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 21029 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 685806 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3095，最高 3118，收于 3099 元/吨，下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 0.51%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 131 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 199.83 万吨，公历同比上升 22.16 万吨，产量本周小幅回升，且同比去年 同期显著增长，反映钢厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关 注产能恢复力度能否持续。 需求端：表需环比下滑（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），同 比大幅增长，说明需求同比回暖，截至 1 月 29 日当周，表需数据 176.4 万 吨，周环比减少 9.12 ...