【策略分析】 【冠通研究】 成本端上涨提振，成材低位小幅反弹 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日 成本端上涨提振，成材低位小幅反弹 今日黑色系低开后偏强运行，成材收盘价格重心小幅上移。成材基本面表现中性 偏弱，特别是螺纹需求显现出疲态，去库缓慢；热卷延续复产，但需求继续高位 攀升，库存去化态势较好。铁水回升幅度放缓，高炉集中复产期已经过去，后续 复产高炉较少，预计铁水继续攀升空间有限。我们认为当下材端需求预期偏弱， 加之铁水见顶风险加大，成材短期压力仍加大，但同时需关注粗钢减产和钢材出 口的消息扰动，预计盘面震荡为主。 【期现行情】 螺纹 2505 小时 K 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 数据来源：博易大师，冠通期货 期货方面：螺纹钢主力 RB2505 开盘 3159 元/吨，收盘于 3170 元/吨，-3 元/吨， 涨跌幅-0.09%；热卷主力开盘 3339 元/吨，收盘于 3359 元/吨，+8 元/吨，涨跌 幅+0.24%。持仓方面，今日螺纹钢 RB2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 682494 手， -54954 手，前二十名空头持仓为 ...

【冠通研究】 供给侧消息扰动，铁矿大幅拉涨 制作日期：2025 年 4 月 1 日 【策略分析】 供给侧消息扰动，铁矿大幅拉涨 今日黑色系低开后偏强运行，铁矿石供给端消息扰动，午后拉涨，收回昨日跌幅。 铁矿石供应端压力逐渐回升；铁水回升放缓，后续高炉复产减少，需求上方空间 有限，港口库存持续小幅回升，去化压力逐渐显现。成材需求恢复中，但是建材 需求已显疲态，见顶风险加大。我们认为短期需求良好仍对矿价形成支撑，但需 关注的是产业链上下游消息面扰动加大，预计短期铁矿石区间震荡为主。2505 合 约运行区间参考 750-810 元/吨。 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：铁矿石主力 I2505 合约低开后偏强震荡，最终收盘于 792 元/吨，+14.5 元/吨，涨跌幅+1.86%。成交量 42.46 万手，持仓 35.52 万手，-11036 手，今日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【期货行情】 铁矿石 2505 小时 K 铁矿石 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 226033 手，-2921 手，前二十名空头持仓 为 240043 手，-903 手， ...

地址： 北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/04/01 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际油价全线上涨, 美油 5 月合约涨 2.94%, 报 71.40 美元/桶, 月涨 2.35%。 布油 6 月 合约涨 2.65%，报 74.69 美元/桶, 月涨 2.58%。 2. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一,COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.38%报 3157.4 美元/盎 司,COMEX 白银期货跌 0.14%报 34.765 美元/盎司。3 月份,COMEX 黄金期货涨 10.84%, COMEX 白银期货涨 10.38%。 3. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘涨跌不一,大豆期货跌 0.88%报 1014 美分/蒲式耳;玉米期货涨 0.99%报 457.75 美分/蒲式耳, 小麦期 货涨 1.75%报 537.5 美分/蒲式耳。 4. 伦敦基本金属多数收跌, LME 期铜跌 1.59%报 9690 美元/吨, LME 期锌跌 1.54% 报 2853.5 美元/吨,LME 期镍跌 1.79%报 15945 美元/吨,LME 期铝跌 0.8%报 ...

【冠通研究】 近月跌停带动主力破位，短期焦煤弱势震荡 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 31 日 【策略分析】 近月跌停带动主力破位，短期焦煤弱势震荡 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约低开后增仓下行，最终收盘于 988.5 元/吨，- 35 元/吨，涨跌幅-3.42%。成交量 34.38 万手，持仓 36.82 万手，+23214 手，今 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 日焦煤 2505 合约前二十名多头持仓为 183460 手，+13137 手，前二十名空头持 仓为 236287 手，+11379 手，多增空增。 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1100 元/吨，较上个交易日+20 元/ 吨；蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 860 元/吨，较上个交易日-5 元/吨。 基差方面：主力合约期货收盘价 1024 元/吨，山西介休基差 111.5 元/吨，较上 个交易日+55.5 元/吨。 数据来源:钢联，冠通期货 【基本面跟踪】 今日黑色系整体下挫，焦煤破位下跌领跌黑色系，近月 04 合约跌停。环保 ...

2. 国际油价全线走低,美油 5 月合约跌 1.26%报 69.04 美元/桶,周涨 1.11%; 布油 6 月合约跌 1.09%报 72.54 美元/桶, 周涨 1.3%。 3. 伦敦基本金属多数收跌, LME 期铜跌 1.25%报 9783.5 美元/吨, 周跌 0.73%; LME 期锌跌 3.4%报 2851.5 美元/吨,周跌 2.61%; LME 期镍涨 1.27%报 16400 美 元/吨,周涨 2.14%;LME 期铝跌 2.11%报 2550 美元/吨,周跌 2.76%;LME 期锡 涨 3.5%报 35895 美元/吨,周涨 4.08%; LME 期铅跌 3.16%报 2022.5 美元/吨, 周涨 0.3%。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约收益涨跌不一,大豆期货涨 0.54%报 1022.25 美分/蒲式耳,周涨 1.24%;玉米期货涨 0.67%报 453 美分/蒲 式耳，周跌 2.42%: 小麦期货跌 0.66%报 528.5 美分/蒲式耳,周跌 5.33%。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/ ...

早盘速递 2025/3/31 热点资讯 1、美国2月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，超过预期的2.7%和前值2.6%；环比则上涨0.4%，超出预期和前值0.3%，创2024年1 月以来新高。2月个人支出环比仅增长0.1%，收入却增长0.8%。数据引发市场对顽固通胀以及潜在滞胀的担忧，交易员继续押注 美联储在7月进行降息。 2、上金所公告，自4月1日收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）等多个合约的保证金比例从11%调整为12%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从 10%调整为11%；Ag（T+D）合约的保证金比例从12%调整为13%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从11%调整为12%。4月7日恢复。 3、工信部等十部门发文推动铝产业高质量发展，提出加快推动国内铝土矿资源增储上产，力争到2027年，国内铝土矿资源量增 长3%-5%，再生铝产量1500万吨以上。 4、财政部发布数据，2月，全国发行地方政府债券13057亿元，其中一般债券1176亿元、专项债券11881亿元；发行新增债券 4966亿元，再融资债券8091亿元。 重点关注 尿素、苹果、黄金、焦煤、PVC、豆粕 夜盘表现 板块表现 非金属建材, 3.70% 贵金属, 23 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The upward movement of the oil and fat sector today is mainly boosted by the positive news of international biodiesel policies, but the US biodiesel policy discussion is for 2026 and later, with little substantial impact this year. Pay attention to the callback after the sentiment fades. Palm oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Soybean oil is expected to be weak in April under the pressure of the concentrated listing of Brazilian soybeans [3][5]. - The main trading logic of the copper market recently is the US tariff policy. In the medium - to - long term, the copper market is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton should be focused on [6]. - The change in gold price is mainly driven by the uncertainty of Trump's policy and the change in risk - aversion sentiment under geopolitical conflicts. It is recommended to treat it with a strong - oscillating mindset and try to go long on dips [11]. - The silver price generally follows the gold price, but due to concerns about the US economic situation and weak domestic demand, the silver price is relatively weaker than the gold price. Opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio should be continuously monitored [13]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish in the short - term, and the market will mainly oscillate weakly in a range, with the main contract referring to the range of 73,000 - 77,000 yuan [14]. - Crude oil is expected to face downward pressure, but considering various factors, it is recommended to hold long positions in the near term [15][16]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt in the near term [18]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the PP05 contract [19]. - It is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract on rallies [21]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level [22]. - The soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be weak [24]. - Iron ore should be treated with an oscillating mindset in the short - term, with the 2505 contract running in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [25]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate, with limited upward and downward space [26]. - Coking coal is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually stopped at low prices [27][28]. - The urea futures market is expected to be high - level oscillating, and the ability of the demand side to support prices needs to be tested [29]. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - International: The Trump administration is discussing a bio - diesel policy for 2026, which may increase the demand for oils and fats. Malaysian palm oil production increased in March, while exports decreased. Indian demand will end after Ramadan, and there is only rigid demand for restocking in March [3]. - Domestic: The import profit of palm oil is inverted, and the demand is low. The inventory is at a low level. The operating rate of soybean oil mills has decreased, and the demand has decreased more significantly. The inventory of rapeseed oil is at a high level [3]. - Outlook: The upward movement of the oil and fat sector is mainly due to the positive sentiment of international policies, but the impact on this year is limited. Palm oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies in the short - term and bearish in the long - term. Soybean oil is expected to be weak in April [3][5]. Copper - Market performance: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined today. The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to the tariff trade war [6]. - Supply and demand: The smelting processing fee is weakening, and there may be a round of centralized maintenance in April. The import of scrap copper may decrease. The demand is expected to be weak, but there is still potential in the traditional peak season [6]. - Outlook: The copper market is expected to be oscillating strongly in the medium - to - long term, and the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton should be focused on [6]. Gold - Macro and geopolitical situation: US economic data shows certain trends, and there are efforts to control the geopolitical situation. The uncertainty of Trump's policy and geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment drive the change in gold price [11]. - Outlook: It is recommended to treat it with a strong - oscillating mindset and try to go long on dips. Pay attention to the support levels of 2,850 US dollars/ounce for London gold and 650 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold [11]. Silver - Macro and domestic situation: The US manufacturing PMI has fallen into the contraction range, and domestic related product prices have decreased. The silver price follows the gold price but is relatively weaker [12][13]. - Outlook: Continuously monitor opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply, demand, and inventory: The domestic supply of lithium carbonate is at a high level, the demand may increase in April but the short - term oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and the inventory is continuously accumulating [14]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are bearish in the short - term, and the market will mainly oscillate weakly in the range of 73,000 - 77,000 yuan [14]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production in April. The Trump administration may take measures against Iranian oil tankers. The US oil rig count has decreased, and the crude oil production has increased slightly [15]. - Demand: The US refinery operating rate has increased, and the overall oil inventory has decreased. The tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy [15][16]. - Outlook: There is downward pressure on crude oil, but it is recommended to hold long positions in the near term [15][16]. Asphalt - Supply and demand: The operating rate of asphalt production has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The inventory of asphalt refineries has decreased, but the actual demand still needs to recover [17]. - Outlook: It is recommended to hold long positions in the near term [18]. PP - Supply and demand: The downstream operating rate of PP is at a low level, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises has decreased. The demand is expected to recover, but it is recommended to wait and see for the PP05 contract [19]. Plastic - Supply and demand: The plastic operating rate has decreased, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering. The inventory of petrochemical enterprises has decreased. The new orders are slow to follow up, and it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract on rallies [20][21]. PVC - Supply and demand: The PVC operating rate is at a medium - high level, and the downstream demand is slowly recovering. The inventory is still high, and the market is expected to be low - level oscillating [22]. Soybean Meal - International and domestic: South American soybeans are about to be listed, and the demand for US soybeans is under pressure. In China, the supply of soybeans may increase in April, and the inventory of soybean meal is expected to accumulate [23]. - Outlook: The soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be weak [24]. Iron Ore - Supply and demand: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand growth is limited, and the port inventory is gradually increasing. The market is expected to be oscillating in the short - term [25]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Market performance: The black - metal sector oscillated weakly. The demand for rebar is weak, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils is decreasing. The market is expected to be oscillating, with limited upward and downward space [26]. Coking Coal - Supply and demand: The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth is limited. The market is expected to be low - level oscillating in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually stopped at low prices [27][28]. Urea - Supply and demand: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is resilient. The inventory is decreasing. The futures market is expected to be high - level oscillating [29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined. Affected by the tariff trade war, the non - ferrous sector was under pressure. The tariff was expected in advance, and there was a possibility of huge losses for the copper previously sent to the US through arbitrage. The supply side was disturbed, and the smelter processing fees weakened. Although the import of scrap copper was in continuous loss, the demand for scrap copper increased due to the tightening of the copper mine end. It was expected that the subsequent import volume of scrap copper would decline. On the demand side, the market's expectation for industrial demand was weak, and the downstream market had a fear of high prices, which hindered the destocking of refined copper inventory. However, there was still demand potential in the traditional peak season. The main trading logic of the copper market recently was the US tariff policy, but in the case of a weak peak season, the market might return to the fundamental trading logic. In the medium - to - long term, the market was still in a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend, and attention should be paid to the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The US tariff policy affected the copper market. The smelter processing fees (TC/RC) were negative and expanding, and the copper mine end was tightening, forcing an increase in scrap copper demand. Although the import of scrap copper was in loss, the import volume was still increasing, but it was expected to decline later. The market's expectation for industrial demand was weak, and the downstream was afraid of high prices, but there was still demand potential in the peak season. The market might return to the fundamental trading logic, and the medium - to - long - term trend was fluctuating and slightly stronger, with the focus on the 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton range [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, closing at 80,450 yuan/ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 135,820 lots, a decrease of 13,535 lots; the number of short orders was 140,422 lots, a decrease of 12,990 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 20 yuan/ton, and in South China was 60 yuan/ton. On March 27, 2025, the LME official price was 9,846 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 59 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3 Supply Side - As of March 21, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 23.01 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.32 cents/pound. In February 2025, China's refined copper production increased by 44,400 tons month - on - month, an increase of 4.38%, and 11.35% year - on - year [7]. 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 135,700 tons, a decrease of 2,100 tons from the previous period. As of March 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 111,100 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 215,300 tons, a slight decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 94,300 short tons, an increase of 971 short tons from the previous period [10].

【冠通研究】 现货价格上涨趋缓，盘面高位整理 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 28 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约低开高走后日内震荡收跌。上游工厂报价继续上涨，价格拉升 过快而成交放缓。基本面变动不大，供给端，日产窄幅波动，供给高位平抑了盘 面向上动能。需求端，价格持续上涨，下游成交气氛降温，贸易商采货依然积极， 本期预收订单天数小幅减少，但仍处于同期中高位。工业需求托底，农业需求用 肥逐渐从南至北开始备肥，需求保持韧性。本周库存继续去化，且近两期去化幅 度有扩大，周内受期货影响成交顺畅，预计继续去库。综合来看，成交放缓，期 货盘整，预计市场价格也将企稳，需求端承接力度仍需考验，期货盘面上涨或将 乏力，目前高位盘整为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1892 元/吨低开高走，震荡收跌，最终收于 1893 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅-0.05%，日成交有所缩量，持仓量 228078 手 （-1235 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+2010，空头+3552 手。其中， 浙商期货净多单减少 1270 手、银河期货净多单减少 2627 手；国泰君安净空单减 少 3912 手；中泰期货净 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an investment rating of "Oscillating" for asphalt [1] Core Viewpoint - The report suggests holding long positions in asphalt in the near term due to factors such as a decline in asphalt production rate, potential increase in demand from government spending, and supply - side uncertainties caused by international policies [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate this week dropped 0.5 percentage points to 26.7%, 3.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, close to the lowest level in recent years. The expected production in March is 238.6 million tons, a 13.2% increase from the previous month. The downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the recovery is slow. The government plans to increase local government special bonds, and the national asphalt shipment volume increased 5.49% week - on - week to 241,900 tons. The refinery inventory ratio decreased, but actual demand still needs to recover. Due to international policies affecting crude oil supply, it is recommended to hold long positions in asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The asphalt futures 2506 contract rose 0.17% to 3,628 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,641 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 4,057 to 224,373 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,610 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract dropped to - 18 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, some refineries' production suspension and conversion led to a 0.5 - percentage - point drop in the asphalt production rate to 26.7%. The highway construction investment from January to February decreased 7.2% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 3.2% year - on - year. The infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased 5.6% year - on - year. The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy with increased deficit, special bonds, etc., and attention should be paid to the progress of physical work volume [4] Inventory - As of the week of March 28, the asphalt refinery inventory ratio decreased 0.5 percentage points to 20.2% compared to the week of March 21, ending the continuous increase after the Spring Festival and remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5]