【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 1 月 21 日，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 43.83 万吨，较上 期降 1.25 万吨，环比降 2.78%;样本企业订单待发 23.83 万吨，较上期微增 0.05 万吨，环比增 0.21%。截至 1 月 21 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 145.75 万吨， 较上一期数据增加 2.22 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 1.36 万吨;华南 地区累库，库存增加 3.58 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存略有积累，周期内显性外轮 卸货 19.80 万吨，尚有两条在卸船货尚未计入在内。截至 1 月 15 日，国内甲醇 制烯烃装置产能利用率 86.93%，环比-2.38%。浙江兴兴 MTO 装置进入停车状态， 仍有部分企业降负荷运行中，行业开工被动继续走低。 【宏观面分析】 近几天来，大规模冬季风暴席卷美国多地，给多地带来大范围降雪和低温天 气。据美国媒体报道，美国有 24 个州和华盛顿特区已宣布进入紧急状态。另据 美国有线电视新闻网 1 月 25 日报道称，严寒天气已导致 7 人死亡。 【期现行情分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, supply is tightening, high - protein soybeans are in short supply. With 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans, soybeans are expected to continue a strong and volatile trend [1] - In the corn market, farmers in Northeast China are more willing to sell after the twelfth lunar month. Feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs, but with sufficient inventory, the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered if there is a significant decline [1] - In the first half of 2026, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased by 2.9%, and the inventory of live pigs increased by 0.5%. The supply of live pigs around the Spring Festival is expected to be large, and the near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3] Summary by Related Categories Soybean - Northeast low - protein soybean prices are stable, high - protein soybeans are in short supply, with some 39% protein soybeans at around 2.2 yuan per catty. The 100% bid - ask success rate of 24099 tons of CGSCC soybeans shows market demand support, and soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile [1] Corn - In Northeast China, farmers' willingness to sell increases after the twelfth lunar month, and feed and deep - processing plants have pre - holiday stocking needs. However, with sufficient inventory (more than 30 days), the market is cautious. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the Spring Festival, and buying on dips can be considered for significant drops [1] Egg - From chicken - chick replenishment data, the inventory of laying hens will decline monthly in H1 2026, with significant drops in March and April due to low replenishment and accelerated old - hen culling. The decline narrows in May. Due to a marginal improvement in inventory, excessive short - selling is not recommended [2] Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and 101.6% of the normal level; the number of live pigs sold was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%, and the inventory of live pigs was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The supply around the Spring Festival is large, and near - term and spot prices are unlikely to rise continuously. The far - term market depends on recent capacity reduction and the number of breeding sows [2][3]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近 6%，集运欧线涨超 4%，沥青涨近 4%，铸造铝合金、沪金、氧化铝涨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 棉花：新疆棉库存下降，加工企业积极销售，现货基差坚挺，下游棉纱品种 延续分化表现，中高支纱订单稳定，低支纱偏弱运行。整体看，短期市场基本面 驱动有限，价格跟随市场情绪波动，或将延续区间震荡态势。棉企库存较为充裕， 积极报价促销，纺企逢下跌点价增加，上涨过程中成交有所减少，年前补库进入 最后阶段，局部成交略增。下午盘面出现明显上涨，不过外盘反应平平，内外棉 差价继续扩大。关注上方一万五关口压力，短期仍然高位调整看待。 白糖：1 月 27 日，印度食品部宣布 2026 年 2 月的食糖内销配额为 225 万 吨，较 1 月的 220 万吨增加 5 万吨，该配额将从 2026 年 2 月 1 日起生效。市场 专家指出，随着 2026 年 2 月 225 万吨食糖配额公告的发布，叠加斋月（2 月 17 日开始持续至 3 月中旬）的开启，国内食糖市场预计将保持看涨态势。节日期间 需求动能预计维持强劲，且从 2 月中旬起，马哈拉施特拉邦的糖厂将逐步结束压 榨作业，这将有助于缓解市场供应过剩压力。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估 ...

Report Summary 1) Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The report predicts that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate due to a combination of factors such as OPEC+ production plans, US inventory changes, geopolitical risks, and global supply - demand adjustments [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026 - The EIA data shows that US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased more than expected, and overall oil product inventories continued to rise - US oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production due to winter storms, about 15% of the national output - The IMF raised the 2026 world economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns - Global floating crude oil storage is high, and the EIA's January report raised the expected surplus of crude oil supply in 2026 - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but its impact on the global supply - demand is currently limited - The US imposed new sanctions on Iran on January 23, and there is a possibility of military action, raising geopolitical risks in the region - The power supply system of Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field is expected to restart, and the CPC No. 3 offshore mooring terminal has completed maintenance, but the oil field can only resume half of its production capacity by February 7 [1] [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 2.49% to 460.3 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 446.5 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 463.4 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 74 to 48,237 lots [2] [Fundamental Tracking] - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day - As of the week ending January 16, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels (expected: 1.131 million barrels), 3.24% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 5.977 million barrels (expected: 1.705 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 3.348 million barrels (expected: - 0.162 million barrels); heating oil inventories increased by 0.279 million barrels (expected: - 0.745 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.478 million barrels [3] [Supply - Side Information] - OPEC's November 2025 oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day - US crude oil production in the week of January 16 decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 13.732 million barrels per day, near the highest historical level - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 19.946 million barrels per day, a 1.68% decrease from the same period last year - Gasoline weekly production decreased by 5.66% to 7.834 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 8.218 million barrels per day, a 0.57% decrease from the same period last year - Diesel weekly production decreased by 13.96% to 3.524 million barrels per day, with a four - week average of 3.549 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease from the same period last year - The supply of US crude oil products decreased by 3.98% week - on - week [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.89个百分点至78.74%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，处于近年同期中性水平。下游赶在节前促销，PVC下游开工率环比上升0.95个百分点， 但下游主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，PVC出口签单大 幅增加，升至近年来的高位，随着出口价格上涨，成交阻力增大，不过，美国面临寒潮冲击之下， 国内出口签单继续环比小幅走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库 存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新 开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。化工板块情 绪提振，氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万华、 山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。1月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临近春 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The supply and demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply and demand is weak. Downstream steel mills have announced shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and the pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses have further expanded, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. With a generally warm macro - atmosphere and frequent fiscal and monetary policy news, there are still policy expectations. Overall, the market will fluctuate widely, continue to rebound in the short term, and should be treated with a low - buying mindset [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of January 23, affected by the expanding losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was - 51 yuan/ton, in Shandong was - 8 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintained off - season characteristics. Although the profits of steel mills rebounded slightly, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side was still limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points to 40.69% compared with last week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly rebounded to 85.51%, and the daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the inventory of imported coking coal at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - Yijinhuoluoqi Mine Safety Supervision Bureau: Inner Mongolia Danmengde Coal Industry Co., Ltd. was ordered to suspend production for rectification [2] - Mainstream steel mills in the Tangshan market and some steel mills in the Xingtai area plan to raise the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented at 0:00 on January 30, 2026 [2]

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：偏弱震荡 【行情分析】 焦煤低开低走，尾盘翻红。供应端，蒙煤近两日通关数量高涨，位于近年 来同期高位水平，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率 为 89.33%，环比增加 0.86%。焦煤年前停产企业多发复工，国内产量有增长， 原煤日均产量达到 199.44 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库，周度环比增加 1.98 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 44.86 万吨，钢厂累库 1.04 万吨，冬储补库进 程放缓，库存下沉进度放慢，补库力度环比历年同期弱，尤其是钢厂累库节奏 强度均慢。下游铁水产量环比增加 0.04%，周度日均产量 228.1 万吨。焦炭一 轮提涨博弈中，前期焦煤补库接近尾声，供需压力进入宽松阶段，而目前尚未 见到矿端由于年前安全检查而有减产的迹象，下游对高价煤接受意愿低，终端 需求无明显起色，但刚性支撑有韧性，焦煤盘面偏弱震荡为主，但下方有支 撑。 【现货数据】 现货方面：山西市场（介休）主流价格报价 1300 元/吨，较上个交易日持平， 蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 1003 元/吨，较上个交易日-37 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3250 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 127 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周三持仓量增仓 29747 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 607256 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3115，最高 3131，收于 3123 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.32%。 二、基本面数据 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 供应端：截至 1 月 22 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 9.25 万吨至 199.55 万吨，公历同比上升 25.42 万吨，产量本周同比增幅显著，反应钢 厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关注产能恢复力度能否持 续。 需求端：表需同比去年大幅增长，但周环比小幅下降，冬储可能开 始，截至 1 月 22 日当周，表需数据 185.52 万吨，周环比减少 4.82 万吨， 年同比增加 68.61 万吨，整体需求相比去年大幅 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力日内震荡，收十字星。120 分钟布林带走缩口喇叭， 短期震荡信号。盘中压力关注日线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注布林带下轨附近。 成交量较昨日减 17.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 59 手；日内最高 1076，最低 1054， 收盘 1067，（较昨结算价）跌 6 元/吨，跌幅 0.56%。 2，现货市场：华北，整体出货较好，部分规格价格上调；华东，交投气氛 一般，下游刚需拿货为主；华中，多数企业价格暂稳，个别提涨，下游拿货偏理 性；华南，除个别企业存量大优惠外，多数企业维稳。 库存方面，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存 5321.6 万重箱，环比+20.3 万重 箱，环比+0.38%，同比+22.74%。折库存天数 23.1 天，较上期+0.1 天。本周下游 拿货情绪一般，个别受天气影响出货较弱，整体库存较前期增加。 需求方面，全国深加工样本企业订单天数均值 9.3 天，环比+7.9%，同比 +86.4%。随着春节临近，南北区域深加工订单走势分化，其中南方订单可执行天 数略有增加，部分订单可维持 ...