Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The fundamentals of urea are weakening, and the market support relies on export containerization. In the game between weak reality and strong expectations, the market is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market opened low and moved high, with a strong intraday oscillation. Yesterday, upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the order intake improved. Today, factory quotes vary. The daily urea production fluctuates around 200,000 tons. In the future, factory equipment will be put back into production, and new production capacity will be gradually launched, so the supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term. However, the market expects seasonal urea production cuts. The northern agricultural demand is near the end, and after the urea futures market weakened, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined, mainly for rigid demand. After compound fertilizer factories started autumn fertilizer production, the operating load increased slightly, but due to the main form of advance payment, the finished product inventory in the factory increased, and the demand for urea was elastic, with limited demand support. The inventory continued to decline this period, mainly due to regional agricultural demand purchases and export orders from export enterprises being shipped to ports, but the inventory decline rate slowed down month-on-month [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,733 yuan/ton, moved high, and oscillated strongly intraday, finally closing at 1,743 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The trading volume was 198,012 lots (+379 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions decreased by 1,363 lots, and short positions increased by 2,238 lots. Dongzheng Futures' net long positions increased by 1,902 lots, and Hongyuan Futures' net long positions increased by 411 lots; Guotai Junan's net short positions increased by 1,368 lots, and Zhongtai Futures' net short positions increased by 2,112 lots [2] - **Spot**: Yesterday, upstream factories reduced prices to attract orders, and the order intake improved. Today, factory quotes vary. The ex-factory prices of small-grain urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are mostly in the range of 1,730 - 1,770 yuan/ton, with a few factories quoting slightly higher [4] Warehouse Receipts - On July 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 2,630, the same as the previous trading day [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price rose. Based on Shandong region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 57 yuan/ton (-20 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: According to Feiyitong data, on July 17, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,700 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 83.75% [11] - **Downstream Data**: From July 11 to July 17, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 32.55%, an increase of 2.72 percentage points from last week. The weekly average utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 62.56%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, which supports the copper price. The processing fees of copper smelters have stopped falling and stabilized, and the supply shortage expectation has eased. However, downstream demand is weak, and the overall procurement sentiment is sluggish. After the enthusiasm of arbitrageurs to rush to the U.S. cools down, inventories in other regions except the U.S. have changed from destocking to stockpiling, putting pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the U.S. has a small impact on the market for now, but if it is actually implemented, it may cause the market to continue to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper price opened low and moved high during the day but weakened. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, supporting the copper price. The processing fees of copper smelters have stopped falling and stabilized, and the supply shortage expectation has eased. The apparent consumption of electrolytic copper increased by 6.30% in May compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate declined, and the air - conditioning industry entered the off - season. The downstream procurement sentiment is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy perform well. After the enthusiasm of arbitrageurs to rush to the U.S. cools down, inventories in other regions except the U.S. have changed from destocking to stockpiling, putting pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the U.S. has a small impact on the market for now, but if it is actually implemented, it may cause the market to continue to decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high during the day but weakened, closing at 77840. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 4798 to 103634 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1478 to 102315 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 55 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price is 9615 dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 52 dollars/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 4.21 tons, a decrease of 0.81 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 6.93 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 12.22 tons, a slight increase of 1150 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 23.94 short tons, an increase of 1171 short tons from the previous period [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for PVC [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to experience a downward trend in the short - term and remain in a low - level oscillation. The supply - side pressure exists due to upcoming new capacity and limited further decline in the operating rate. The demand side is weak as the real - estate market is still in the adjustment phase, and export is restricted by policies and seasons. The high - price spot transactions are difficult, and the inventory pressure is large [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The PVC operating rate has decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97%, and it is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate is low, and procurement is cautious. The BIS policy in India is extended, and the anti - dumping policy may limit exports. The social inventory has increased, and the real - estate market is still in adjustment. Although the PVC maintenance is increasing in July, the operating rate is expected to have limited room for further decline, and new capacity is about to be put into production. Before the demand is substantially improved, PVC faces great pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2509 contract decreased by 1.14% to close at 4934 yuan/ton, with an increase of 22748 hands in open interest to 982527 hands. The lowest price was 4922 yuan/ton, and the highest was 4978 yuan/ton, staying above the 20 - day moving average [2] Basis - On July 16, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4785 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2509 contract was 4934 yuan/ton. The basis was - 149 yuan/ton, strengthening by 16 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 76.97% due to the maintenance of some devices. New capacity of 250,000 tons/year has been put into production in 2025, and about 110,000 tons/year is expected to be put into production in July. On the demand side, from January to June 2025, the real - estate investment, new construction, and completion areas all decreased significantly year - on - year. The investment and sales growth rates further declined. The 30 - city commercial housing transaction area decreased by 37.32% week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in recent years. In terms of inventory, as of the week of July 10, the PVC social inventory increased by 5.37% to 623,600 tons, 34.15% lower than the same period last year, but still at a relatively high level [4][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of domestic futures is complex, with different trends for various varieties. For example, the prices of some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical risks, and policy changes. Overall, most commodities are in a state of oscillation, and investors need to pay attention to relevant factors such as policy implementation and supply - demand changes [3][4][9] Summary by Variety Carbonate Lithium - Price: The average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 64,950 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 63,350 yuan/ton, both up 50 yuan/ton from the previous workday [3] - Supply: The weekly capacity utilization rate is 62%, up from last week. The output in June was 74,000 tons, with inventory continuously increasing [3] - Demand: The downstream is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The operating load of battery material factories increased in July, and the consumption data of new - energy vehicles is on an upward trend [3] - Market: The market sentiment has cooled, and the market is oscillating strongly [3] Coking Coal - Price: The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) is 1,020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 783 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton [4] - Supply: The import volume of coal from Mongolia is expected to increase after the holiday. The domestic coal production affected by the safety month has also recovered. The daily output of coal washing plants has increased by about 0.8 tons [4][5] - Demand: The coke price increase has been implemented, driving up the upstream price. The downstream steel mills have good profits, and the coking coal has stronger resistance to decline than coke [5] - Market: The supply support is gradually weakening, but the short - term market is oscillating without a pessimistic outlook [5] Copper - Price: The price of Shanghai copper has declined [9] - Supply: The copper concentrate inventory has increased, and the tight supply expectation has been alleviated. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to increase [9] - Demand: The apparent consumption of electrolytic copper has increased, but the downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and only emerging industries such as new energy are performing well [9] - Market: The short - term price is under pressure, but the downward space is limited [9] Crude Oil - Price: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [10][11] - Supply: OPEC + will increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. The US crude oil inventory is at a low level [10][11] - Demand: It has entered the seasonal peak travel season [10] - Market: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, but there are still uncertainties such as sanctions and the Iran nuclear agreement [10][11] Asphalt - Price: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12] - Supply: The asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons in July, with an increase of 6.0% month - on - month and 23.6% year - on - year [12] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has mostly declined, and the terminal project funds are still restricted [12] - Market: The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has decreased, and the crude oil price increase is limited [12] PP - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level [14] - Supply: The new capacity of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's No. 4 unit was put into operation in June, and the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly [14] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has declined, and the new orders are limited [14] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [14] Plastic - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [15][17] - Supply: The new capacity of Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's No. 2 HDPE unit has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly [15][17] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is at a low level, and the new orders are followed up slowly [15][17] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and attention should be paid to the global trade war [15][17] PVC - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future [18] - Supply: The operating rate has decreased, and new capacities such as Wanhua Chemical are about to be put into operation [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate is low, and the export is restricted [18] - Market: The inventory pressure is large, and the demand has not been substantially improved [18] Soybean Oil - Price: It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but there is a callback pressure [19][20] - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans and soybean oil has increased, and the supply is loose [19] - Demand: The domestic consumption is weak, and the consumption in the bio - fuel field may decrease [19][20] - Market: Attention should be paid to the crude oil price fluctuation and inventory accumulation [19][20] Soybean Meal - Price: It oscillates strongly, deviating from the price trend of US soybeans [21] - Supply: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal has increased [21] - Demand: The consumption demand has increased [21] - Market: Attention should be paid to the US trade agreement [21] Rebar - Price: It is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand inflection points [22][23] - Supply: The production reduction is continuing, but the supply contraction is slow [22][23] - Demand: The demand is weak, and the demand toughness is weakening [22][23] - Market: The cost support is in a game, and the market is in a seasonal weak state [22][23] Hot Rolled Coil - Price: It is expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25] - Supply: The supply pressure has increased slightly [24] - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and exports may shrink [24][25] - Market: The fundamentals are moderately weak [24][25] Urea - Price: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to news disturbances [26] - Supply: The daily output is around 200,000 tons, and new capacities are being put into operation [26] - Demand: The agricultural demand in the north is weakening, and the downstream is mainly for rigid - demand procurement [26] - Market: The market is a combination of weak reality and strong expectation [26]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - China's H1 GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, a 5.3% YoY increase. Q1 GDP rose 5.4% YoY, and Q2 grew 5.2%. H1 fixed - asset investment increased 2.8%, with real - estate development investment down 11.2%. In June, industrial added - value of large - scale enterprises rose 6.8% YoY, and retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.8% [3] - In June, according to 70 - city housing price data, housing prices in all tiers declined MoM, with the YoY decline narrowing. 14 cities saw new - home prices rise MoM, led by Shanghai and Changsha with a 0.4% increase. Only Xining's second - hand home prices rose MoM [3] - The EU Foreign Affairs Council failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia due to opposition from Malta and Slovakia. The sanctions target Russia's energy revenue [3] - China adjusted the catalog of technologies prohibited or restricted for export, deleting 3 items, adding 1, and modifying 1. The newly restricted export technology is battery cathode material preparation technology [3] - US CPI in June rose 2.7% YoY, the highest since February, meeting market expectations. Core CPI rose 2.9% YoY and 0.2% MoM, both below expectations. Traders predict the Fed will start cutting rates in September, with nearly two cuts by the end of the year [4] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, PVC, hot - rolled coil, and soybean oil [5] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.88%, precious metals 28.77%, oilseeds and oils 12.23%, non - ferrous metals 2.80%, soft commodities 18.96%, coal, coke, and steel ore 14.40%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 12.70%, grains 1.23%, agricultural and sideline products 2.77% [5] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days [6] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.42 | 1.76 | 4.57 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.38 | 1.30 | 2.33 | | | CSI 300 | 0.03 | 2.11 | 2.14 | | | CSI 500 | - 0.03 | 1.75 | 5.12 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.40 | 0.63 | 6.16 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.60 | 2.15 | 22.58 | | | German DAX | - 0.42 | 0.63 | 20.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.55 | - 2.00 | - 0.54 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.66 | 2.02 | 9.36 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | 0.18 | - 0.00 | - 0.03 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | 0.13 | - 0.13 | - 0.48 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | 0.04 | - 0.08 | - 0.54 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.23 | 1.82 | 2.02 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.39 | 2.65 | - 7.23 | | | London Spot Gold | - 0.59 | 0.64 | 26.64 | | | LME Copper | 0.00 | - 2.37 | 9.82 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.17 | 1.86 | 15.92 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.53 | 1.92 | - 9.08 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 2.81 | - 0.86 | [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive development trend in the second half of the year, supported by the positive performance in the first half, new growth drivers, and coordinated macro - policies [8] - The global financial and commodity markets are influenced by various factors such as economic data, geopolitical events, and policy adjustments, showing different trends in different sectors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.85% at $3330.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.95% at $37.99 per ounce [2] - International oil prices slightly decreased, with the US crude oil main contract down 0.34% at $66.75 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract down 0.52% at $68.85 per barrel [3] - Most London base metals fell, except for LME copper which rose 0.40% to $9657.50 per ton. LME zinc dropped 1.04% to $2701.50 per ton and LME tin fell 0.82% to $33260.00 per ton [4] - In the US agricultural products market, soybeans fell 0.60%, corn rose 0.19%, soybean oil rose 0.68%, soybean meal fell 0.75%, and wheat fell 0.55%. In the domestic futures market, most contracts fell, with cotton rising nearly 1% and some contracts like glass and LPG falling more than 1% [5] Macroeconomic News - In the first half of the year, China's GDP was 66.0536 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. The first, second, and third - industry added values increased by 3.7%, 5.3%, and 5.5% respectively [8] - The US June CPI data met market expectations, with the unadjusted CPI annual rate at 2.7% and the monthly rate at 0.3%. The possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is high [9] - The US and China's tariff truce deadline is flexible, and both sides are expected to hold talks in the coming weeks [11] Energy and Chemical Futures - China's refined oil prices were adjusted downwards, with gasoline and diesel prices per ton reduced by 130 yuan and 125 yuan respectively [13] - The trading fee standard for intraday closing of the caustic soda futures 2509 contract was adjusted to 0.01% of the trading volume [13] - In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 11.8% year - on - year, and in June, exports increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [13] - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at 1.29 million barrels per day and 1.28 million barrels per day respectively, and its June production increased by 220,000 barrels per day [13] Metal Futures - In June, Indonesia's refined tin exports increased slightly by 0.14% year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [15] - According to a US Bank survey, 47% of fund managers expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice in 2025 [15] - Goldman Sachs maintained a bullish view on the COMEX - LME copper price arbitrage trade in December 2025 [16] - The World Gold Council reported that gold prices in the first half of 2025 rose 26% in US dollars, driven by a weak US dollar, interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainties [16] Black - Series Futures - Some steel mills in Tangshan, Xingtai, and Shandong planned to raise coke purchase prices starting from July 17 [18] - The Central Urban Work Conference proposed to build livable cities, optimize urban spatial structures, and promote real - estate development model transformation [18] - The first round of coke price increases was fully implemented, and some coking coal auction prices rose. Mongolian coal imports were expected to return to medium - high levels [20] - From January to June, China's real - estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, and the housing construction area decreased by 9.1% [20] Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 decreased compared to the same period last month according to two survey agencies [22] - As of July 15, China's soybean oil port inventory increased by 24,000 tons week - on - week, and the imported soybean port inventory increased by 99,080 tons [22] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized efforts to achieve the annual grain output target of about 1.4 trillion catties [22] - As of July 13, EU 2025/26 soybean and palm oil imports decreased compared to the same period last year [23] - The US June soybean oil inventory was 1.366 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 185.709 million bushels [25] Financial Market Financial - A - shares showed a divergence between large and small - cap indices, with over 4000 stocks falling. The Hong Kong stock market rose, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.6% [27] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange required brokers to manage investor suitability for the Sci - tech Growth Layer [27] - International capital's enthusiasm for allocating Chinese assets is increasing, and many foreign institutions are optimistic about the Chinese market [28] - Over 57% of listed companies had positive performance pre - announcements, and the expected total net profit increased by nearly 70% year - on - year [30] - More than 3420 A - share listed companies completed 2024 annual profit distributions, and over 324 companies announced mid - year profit distribution plans [30] Industry - The financial regulator strengthened supervision of local asset management companies [31] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to formulate mandatory national standards for mobile power sources [31] - The market regulator launched a special campaign to rectify live - streaming e - commerce [31] - The 11th batch of national drug centralized procurement started, with 55 varieties included [31] - The regulatory authority accelerated research on the "24% + equity" lending model [32] - The China Chain Store & Franchise Association called for regulating the instant - retail market [34] - A meeting on ensuring potash supply and stabilizing prices was held [35] - Beijing expanded the pilot scope of direct rent payment from housing provident funds [35] Overseas - The US and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, with Indonesia opening its market and the US imposing a 19% tariff [36] - The US June CPI data affected market expectations of Fed interest - rate cuts [36] - The selection process for the next Fed chair has started [36] - The EU may postpone trade counter - measures against the US [38] - Canada's prime minister was pessimistic about US - Canada trade negotiations [38] - The EU failed to reach an agreement on the 18th round of sanctions against Russia [38] International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.98%, the S&P 500 down 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up 0.18% [39] - European stocks fell across the board due to US tariff policies, energy prices, and weak PMI data [39] - Earnings reports of some US financial institutions showed different performances [40][41][43] Commodities - International precious metal futures, oil prices, and most base metals declined. The base - metal market was in oversupply [44] - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts [45] - China's June industrial coal, oil, and gas production increased year - on - year [46] - The trading fee standard for intraday closing of the caustic soda futures 2509 contract was adjusted [47] Bonds - China's bond market strengthened, with the central bank's large - scale reverse - repurchase operations boosting sentiment [48] - Japanese government bond yields rose due to Senate election concerns [49] - Three domestic bonds of CIFI Group passed the restructuring plan vote [49] - US Treasury yields rose due to various factors [49] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore and offshore RMB against the US dollar declined. The US dollar index rose due to market expectations and geopolitical factors [50] - Shorting the US dollar became the most crowded trade according to a US Bank survey [52] Upcoming Events - Multiple economic and policy - related speeches and meetings are scheduled, including those by Fed officials and international central banks [54] - Some companies will release earnings reports, and new stocks will be listed [54]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "养殖产业链数据报告 - 豆粕、油脂" [1] - Report date: July 15, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core View - No information provided Group 4: Summary of Soybean Meal Data - The current price of 43% protein soybean meal is 2,892 yuan/ton, up 0.77% from the previous value [2] - The current futures - spot price difference of soybean meal is - 100 yuan/ton, up 49.25% [2] - The output of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 1.6294 million tons, down 0.21% [2] - The daily trading volume of soybean meal is 185,100 tons, up 119.05% [2] - The apparent consumption of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 1.5799 million tons, up 5.81% [2] - The inventory of 111 sample soybean meal enterprises is 0.7869 million tons, up 6.71% [2] - The basis of the main soybean meal spot contract is - 61.14 yuan/ton, up 62.13% [2] Group 5: Summary of Oil Data - The current inventory of palm oil in China is 563,000 tons, up 5.21% [3] - The current inventory of rapeseed oil in China is 685,600 tons, down 2.00% [3] - The current inventory of soybean oil in China is 1.0494 million tons, up 2.91% [3] - The current futures - spot price difference of palm oil in China is 112 yuan/ton, down 35.63% [3] - The current futures - spot price difference of rapeseed oil in China is 128 yuan/ton, down 3.03% [3] - The current futures - spot price difference of soybean oil and palm oil in China is - 702 yuan/ton, up 23.81% [3] - The basis of the main palm oil spot contract is 221.33 yuan/ton, up 48.54% [3] - The basis of the main rapeseed oil spot contract is 211 yuan/ton, up 14.36% [3] - The basis of the main soybean oil spot contract is 210.84 yuan/ton, up 10.24% [3]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 15 日 热点品种 豆油： 今日豆油主力 09 合约早盘开盘价 8010 元/吨，收盘价 8012 元/吨，收盘涨幅 0.30%，盘中最低触及 7984 元/吨，最高达到 8038 元/吨，价格突破 8000 元/吨 压力位，预期后续或将震荡偏强走势。供应端方面，未来两周美豆产区降雨略高 于常值，温度略低于常值，总体上有利于作物生长。国内油厂压榨率提升，油厂 周度压榨量保持在 200 万吨以上，豆油库存持续增加，根据金十期货最新数据显 示，全国重点地区豆油商业库存 104.94 万吨，环比上周增加 2.97 万吨，增幅 2.91%，豆油现货供应整体宽松。近两周工厂虽因油粕胀库的原因导致开机率自 半个月前的 70%下降至 60%左右，豆油产量减少，但是下游贸易商提货不多，导 致了工厂豆油库存继续增加。需求端方面，国际原油下跌，买豆油卖豆粕套利仍 在，且国内油脂消费淡季叠加国内中央经济工作会议提出价格反内卷信号，宏观 资金寻找低价远月合约做多，近期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is experiencing a weakening trend with short - term oscillations. The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose, unable to support high prices. Although export orders are being executed, quota issues may continue to affect the market, leading to a mainly oscillating urea futures market [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market opened lower and moved lower, with weak intraday oscillations. Spot prices are declining due to weak domestic demand. Currently, urea plants have both maintenance and restart operations, with daily production fluctuating around 200,000 tons. There will be new production capacity coming online, and supply - side pressure is hard to relieve in the short term. Demand is mainly from agricultural and industrial sectors. Agricultural demand in the main delivery areas is decreasing, and compound fertilizer plants are operating at a low level. Exports support the domestic market, and inventory is decreasing, which also boosts the urea market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1,757 yuan/ton, closed at 1,731 yuan/ton, down 1.70%. The trading volume was 201,388 lots (+3,396 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 3,239 lots and short positions increased by 6,384 lots [2] - **Spot**: Spot prices are continuing to decline. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly in the range of 1,760 - 1,800 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation is stable, while the futures closing price has decreased. The basis in Shandong for the September contract is 99 yuan/ton (+23 yuan/ton) [8] - **Supply Data**: On July 15, 2025, the national daily urea production was 193,900 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.56% [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in Shanghai copper prices is mainly due to the US plan to impose a 50% copper tariff, exceeding previous expectations. There is a cold expectation for cross - regional arbitrage in the future, and export demand will significantly decrease. Although the expectation of tight supply at foreign copper mines has not been reversed, the downward space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and weakened during the day. In June, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. Trump announced tariff hikes on 14 countries (effective on August 1), threatening to impose a 200% tariff on drugs and a 50% surcharge on copper. Since the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, US copper prices have risen significantly, while London copper and Shanghai copper prices have weakened to varying degrees [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting plant processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expectation of extremely tight copper supply may improve. After the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate [1]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate decreased, and the air - conditioning industry has passed its peak production and sales period and entered the off - season. The overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy have performed well [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened during the day, closing at 78,090. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,230 lots, a decrease of 705 lots; the short positions were 111,042 lots, an increase of 214 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 90 yuan per ton, and in South China it is 5 yuan per ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9,595 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 40 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on July 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.32 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 50,100 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 69,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 109,600 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 236,500 short tons, an increase of 3,061 short tons from the previous period [8].