地址： 北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 资讯早间报 制作日期: 2025/03/28 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘涨跌不一,能源化工品多数上涨,苯乙烯涨 1.04%, 低硫燃料油涨近 1%。黑色系全线下跌,焦煤跌 1.06%。农产品普遍上涨,棕榈 油涨 2.17%, 豆油涨 1.34%,菜油涨 1.34%。基本金属多数收跌,沪锌跌 0.97%, 沪铜跌 0.93%，沪铝跌 0.82%，氧化铝跌 0.75%。沪金涨 1.09%，沪银涨 1.77%。 2. 国际油价小幅上涨，美油 5 月合约涨 0.37%，报 69.91 美元/桶。布油 6 月合 约涨 0.41%，报 73.36 美元/桶。 3. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.54%报 3069.1 美元/盎司, 再创历史新高,今年以来累计涨幅已超 17%,COMEX 白银期货涨 3.21%报 35.32 美元/盎司。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌不一, LME 期铜跌 2.46%报 9846.5 美元/吨, LME 期锌 跌 2.37%报 2898 美元/吨,LME 期镍涨 0.09%报 162 ...

4、 伴随美国铜铝关税即将来临，美国的抢铜大战也进入冲刺阶段。美国纽约商品期货交易所正在以每吨高出全球1400美元的 价格，吸引全球铜库存转移到美国。短短的三个月内，美国进口铜量由过去的每月7万吨左右，激增至每月50万吨，是过去正 常月份进口量的7倍。 5、 大商所修改焦炭期货合约及相关业务细则，适用于J2604及以后合约。自2026年4月第一个交易日起，大商所将按照修改后 的规则办理标准仓单注册。 6、 去年11月，全国人大常委会批准增加6万亿元地方政府债务限额置换存量隐性债务。机构数据显示，截至3月27日，各地今 年以来已发行和计划发行地方政府再融资专项债达14716.17亿元，加上去年发行的2万亿元置换债，占6万亿元此类地方政府债 务限额的比例已过半。 板块表现 重点关注 铁矿石、玻璃、烧碱、铜、棕榈油 夜盘表现 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 3.89% 贵金属, 22.20% 油脂油料, 12.91% 煤焦钢矿, 14.46% 能源, 2.56% 化工, 14.58% 谷物, 1.79% 农副产品, 3.14% 商 品 各 板 块 资 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - For iron ore, it is recommended to adopt a volatile trading approach in the short - term, with the 2505 contract operating in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [3] - For copper, in the long - term, the market is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and attention should be paid to the 80000 - 83000 yuan/ton range [5] - For gold, it is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile trading approach, with London gold spot focusing on the 2850 US dollars/ounce level and Shanghai gold futures focusing on the 650 yuan/gram level [10] - For silver, continue to monitor opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio [11] - For lithium carbonate, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach, as the price is expected to decline in the long - term [12] - For crude oil, it is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [14] - For asphalt, it is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [16] - For PP, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for the PP05 contract [17] - For plastic, it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract when it is high [19] - For PVC, it is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range [21] - For oils and fats, the 05 contract of palm oil is expected to trade in a volatile and downward - biased range; the 05 contract of soybean oil will trade in a volatile manner in the short - term and is expected to decline in April; the 05 contract of rapeseed oil has high inventory and weak support [22] - For soybean meal, the 05 contract is expected to trade in a downward - biased range [24] - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the futures prices are expected to trade in a volatile manner [25] - For coking coal, it is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually closed at low prices [26] - For urea, the market is in a state of high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether the market is affected by export news [28] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - Supply pressure is gradually increasing, while short - term demand still has room for growth, but port inventory depletion pressure may gradually emerge - Steel mill profitability is acceptable, and molten iron production has not peaked, providing some support for ore prices, but crude steel production cuts are causing more disruptions - The 2505 contract is expected to operate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton [3] Copper - The US tariff policy has led to increased supply disruptions, with lower processing fees for smelters, expected concentrated maintenance in April, and a tightening of scrap copper sources - Social inventory depletion has slowed down, suppressing the upside of copper prices; under the trade war, market demand expectations are weak, but there is still potential demand in the traditional peak season - In the long - term, the market is expected to show a volatile and upward - biased trend, and attention should be paid to the 80000 - 83000 yuan/ton range [4][5] Gold - Trump's policy uncertainty and changes in risk - aversion sentiment due to geopolitical conflicts are the main drivers of gold price changes - It is recommended to maintain a bullish and volatile trading approach, with London gold spot focusing on the 2850 US dollars/ounce level and Shanghai gold futures focusing on the 650 yuan/gram level [9][10] Silver - The US manufacturing PMI in March fell into the contraction range, and domestic photovoltaic and semiconductor material prices declined year - on - year - Silver prices generally follow gold prices, but due to concerns about the US economy and weak domestic demand, silver prices are relatively weaker than gold prices, and opportunities to go long on the gold - silver ratio should be monitored [11] Lithium Carbonate - Overseas supply has contracted due to a strike at an Australian lithium mine, but demand has weakened after subsidy cuts for new energy vehicles, and inventory pressure remains high - In the long - term, demand is expected to grow, but in the short - term, there is an oversupply problem, and the price is expected to decline. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach [12] Crude Oil - OPEC+ plans to increase production in April, and the US has taken measures to affect the oil supply chain. US refinery operating rates have increased, and oil product inventories have decreased - Trump's tariff policy has raised concerns about the global economy, but the US plans to replenish its strategic oil reserves, and there are supply - side disruptions. It is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [14] Asphalt - Asphalt production is expected to increase in March, but the operating rate has declined. Downstream industries are gradually resuming work, but the recovery is slow - Inventory is at a low level but is rising. Due to factors such as US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, it is recommended to take small - position long positions recently [15][16] PP - PP downstream operating rates are gradually recovering but are still at a low level. Newly added maintenance devices have reduced the enterprise operating rate, and the production ratio of standard products has decreased - Petrochemical inventory is at a low level, and upstream crude oil prices provide cost support. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for the PP05 contract [17] Plastic - Plastic operating rates have decreased, and downstream operating rates are gradually recovering but are still at a low level. Petrochemical inventory is at a low level, and upstream crude oil prices provide cost support - With new production capacity coming on - stream and slow downstream recovery, it is recommended to short the basis of the plastic 05 contract when it is high [19] PVC - PVC operating rates have increased, but downstream demand recovery is slow, and export is affected by Indian policies. Social inventory is still high, but it has started to decline slowly - It is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range [20][21] Oils and Fats - Internationally, palm oil production is increasing while demand is decreasing seasonally, and inventory is starting to accumulate. Domestically, demand is weak, and import is restricted by negative profit margins - For soybean oil, the oil mill operating rate has decreased, and demand has weakened. For rapeseed oil, inventory is at a high level. The 05 contracts of palm oil and soybean oil are expected to trade in a volatile and downward - biased range [22] Soybean Meal - Overseas, South American soybean harvest is accelerating, and US soybean demand is under pressure. Domestically, the soybean crushing plant operating rate has decreased, and demand from downstream breeding enterprises is weak, leading to inventory accumulation - The 05 contract is expected to trade in a downward - biased range [23][24] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The fundamentals of finished products are moderately weak, with slow inventory depletion for rebar and good inventory depletion for hot - rolled coil. Demand has not peaked, and cost support still exists - The futures prices are expected to trade in a volatile manner [25] Coking Coal - Supply pressure is high due to increased domestic mine production and recovered Mongolian coal imports. Downstream coke production has recovered, but inventory is moderately high, and demand has limited elasticity - It is expected to trade in a low - level volatile range in the short - term, and previous short positions should be gradually closed at low prices [26] Urea - Upstream factory prices are firm, and supply is expected to remain stable in the short - term. Demand from traders is strong, and downstream demand is expected to increase in April - The market is in a state of high - level consolidation, and attention should be paid to whether the market is affected by export news [28]

【冠通研究】 今日焦煤主力高开后震荡运行，收盘价格重心小幅抬升。环保限产影响减弱，国 内矿山开工明显抬升，蒙煤通关量回升，供应端压力仍较大。下游焦炭产量有所 恢复，但焦炭库存中等偏高，十一轮提降后亏损压力较大，焦煤需求端有支撑无 弹性。近几日焦煤竞拍价格上涨，铁水尚未见顶，刚需支撑仍存，但粗钢减产消 息持续发酵，对炉料端形成抑制，加之移仓换月阶段，预计盘面上下空间均有限， 短期低位震荡为主，前期空单逢低逐渐止盈。2505 合约下方支撑关注 980-1000 元/吨附近。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【期货行情】 焦煤 2505 小时 K 数据来源：博易，冠通期货 期货方面：焦煤主力 JM2505 合约微幅高开后偏强运行，最终收盘于 1035 元/吨， +8 元/吨，涨跌幅+0.78%。成交量 21.43 万手，持仓 34.43 万手，-19502 手，今 短期低位震荡 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 27 日 【策略分析】 短期低位震荡 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 数据来源:钢联，冠通期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the crude oil industry is to hold a small - position long - term trial in the near term [1] Core Viewpoints - Despite the downward pressure on crude oil prices due to OPEC+ production increase, trade wars, and economic slowdown, recent factors such as the U.S. plan to replenish oil reserves, geopolitical conflicts, and production cut plans from some countries suggest a small - position long - term trial [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - OPEC+ will implement a previously postponed production increase plan in April, adding about 13.8 barrels per day [1] - The Trump administration may intercept Iranian oil tankers, and the U.S. and Russia have different stances on the Black Sea navigation safety agreement [1] - The U.S. oil rig count decreased by 1 last week, and the U.S. crude oil production increased by 0.1 million barrels per day to 13.574 million barrels per day in the week ending March 14 [1] - The U.S. refinery utilization rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 87.0%, and the overall oil inventory continued to decline [1] - The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's interest - rate stance have an impact on the market [1] - The U.S. energy minister plans to seek up to $20 billion to replenish the oil reserves [1] - IEA has raised the expected surplus of crude oil, but recent events suggest a small - position long - term trial [1] Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2505 rose 0.24% to 540.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum of 540.7 yuan per ton and a maximum of 545.9 yuan per ton, and the open interest decreased by 1674 to 30336 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA, OPEC, and IEA have different adjustments to the global crude oil demand and supply forecasts [3] - U.S. EIA data on March 26 showed that the crude oil inventory and refined product inventories decreased in the week ending March 21, with the crude oil inventory decline exceeding expectations [3] Supply and Demand - OPEC's January and February 2025 crude oil production increased, mainly driven by Iran and Nigeria [4] - The U.S. crude oil production slightly rebounded in the week ending March 14 but was still lower than the record high [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased, and the weekly demand for gasoline and diesel decreased [4][6]

【冠通研究】 需求保持韧性，盘面高位整理 制作日期：2025 年 3 月 27 日 【策略分析】 尿素主力合约高开高走后日内小幅下滑。上游工厂报价坚挺为主，部分工厂 开启限单，收单顺畅。昨日印度发布尿素招标，目前来看尚未对价格造成过度影 响。供给端，目前周内工厂临检复产叠加，中短期内日产预计维持窄幅波动为主。 需求端，贸易商采货积极，下游心态买涨不买跌，本期预收订单天数小幅减少， 但仍处于同期中高位。复合肥厂开工率高，托举盘面价格，夏季肥收单顺畅，含 氮复合肥乃当季主推。农需 4 月水稻备肥在即，农需方面有增加预期。本周库存 继续去化，且近两期去化幅度有扩大。综合来看，市场价格易涨难跌，但上涨同 样受阻力，需求端承接力度仍需考验，目前供需两旺，盘面高位整理，关注后续 市场是否再度受出口消息影响。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2505 合约 1896 元/吨高开高走，震荡收涨，最终收涨 收于 1891 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅 0.75%，日成交有所增量，持仓量 246386 手（-7471 手）。前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1331，空头-10931 手。其 中，永安期货净多单增加 2269 手 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The risk of the global trade war has suddenly escalated, and the demand outlook for industrial metals is bleak. The main trading logic in the copper market recently is the US tariff policy, but in the case of a lackluster peak season, the market may return to the fundamental trading logic. In the medium to long term, the copper market is still in a volatile and upward - trending pattern, and attention should be paid to the range of 80,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market fluctuated and declined. The US tariff policy led to the transfer of copper inventories to the US, intensifying regional supply - demand imbalances. The processing fees of smelters weakened, and it is expected that there will be a round of concentrated maintenance in April. The source of scrap copper has tightened, and the supply - side disturbances have increased, providing support for the market. The slowdown in the destocking of Shanghai copper social inventories has suppressed the copper price. The market's expectation of industrial demand is weak, and the destocking of refined copper inventories is blocked, but there is still potential demand in the peak season [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, closing at 81,560 yuan/ton. The number of long orders of the top 20 was 149,774 lots, a decrease of 10,412 lots; the number of short orders was 153,412 lots, a decrease of 10,749 lots. In the spot market, the spot premium in East China was - 30 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 90 yuan/ton. On March 26, 2025, the LME official price was 9,908 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 24 US dollars/ton [3] Supply - side - As of March 21, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 23.01 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 2.32 cents/pound. In February 2025, China's refined copper production increased by 44,400 tons month - on - month, a rise of 4.38%, and increased by 11.35% year - on - year [6] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 137,900 tons, a decrease of 1,700 tons from the previous period. As of March 24, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 108,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 216,800 tons, a slight decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 93,800 short tons, an increase of 651 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "Oscillating upward", and the strategy is "Wait and see" [1] Core View of the Report - After the seventh week of the Spring Festival holiday, the overall downstream PP operating rate continued to rise month - on - month but remained at a relatively low level this year. The increase in new maintenance devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate. Although the downstream demand is expected to continue to recover, the current downstream recovery is slow, with limited new orders and weak restocking willingness. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The overall downstream PP operating rate continued to rise month - on - month, with the plastic weaving operating rate up 0.9 percentage points to 47.4%. The US tariff increase is unfavorable for PP downstream product exports. New maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 82%. The downstream gradually resumed work, and the petrochemical inventory decreased to a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The upstream crude oil price rebounded to provide cost support. It is recommended to wait and see the PP05 contract [1] Futures Market - The PP2505 contract oscillated upward with reduced positions, closing at 7347 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. The trading volume decreased by 19,681 lots to 365,320 lots [2] Spot Market - PP spot prices showed a mixed trend, with拉丝 priced at 7150 - 7540 yuan/ton and copolymer at 7265 - 7740 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the PP enterprise operating rate to about 82%. On the demand side, as of the week of March 21, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.46 percentage points to 50.44%. The petrochemical inventory decreased by 1.5 tons to 71 tons on Thursday, lower than the same period last year. The Brent crude oil 06 contract rose above $72/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $5/ton to $820/ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel are moderately weak, and the prices are expected to fluctuate. The demand has not peaked yet, and the resumption of blast furnace production continues to support the demand for furnace materials. There is still cost support, and the expectation of negative feedback in the industrial chain is not strong for the time being. Recently, the news of crude steel production cuts on the supply side has been fermenting, and during the position transfer period, short - sellers are gradually taking profits. [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, the black - series commodities opened higher and then mainly fluctuated. Furnace materials were stronger than finished steel, and the closing price center of finished steel dropped slightly. The fundamentals of finished steel are moderately weak, especially the demand for rebar shows signs of fatigue and inventory reduction is slow. Hot - rolled coil continues to resume production, demand keeps rising at a high level, and the inventory reduction situation is good. [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The main rebar contract RB2505 opened at 3205 yuan/ton and closed at 3208 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton with a change of - 0.19%. The main hot - rolled coil contract opened at 3387 yuan/ton and closed at 3381 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton with a change of - 0.12%. In terms of positions, for the rebar RB2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 876,699 lots, down 56,742 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 1,007,623 lots, down 79,748 lots. For the hot - rolled coil HC2505 contract, the top 20 long positions were 541,526 lots, down 21,355 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 594,480 lots, down 30,714 lots. [5] - **Spot**: Today, domestic steel prices declined slightly with stability. The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), and the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3370 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The trading atmosphere in the steel market was generally poor today. [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the main rebar contract in Shanghai was 41 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton), and the basis of hot - rolled coil was - 11 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton). Currently, the basis is at a medium level compared to the same period in previous years. [5] Fundamental Tracking - **Rebar**: From March 21st to March 27th, the weekly rebar production was 2274300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The apparent demand was 2453200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23300 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 12.78%. The social inventory was 6095800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 83800 tons, and the factory inventory was 2095300 tons, a decrease of 95100 tons. The total inventory was 8191100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 178900 tons. The demand for rebar recovers slowly, and inventory reduction is less than expected. [6][8] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: From March 21st to March 27th, the weekly hot - rolled coil production was 3247500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The apparent demand was 3386900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 80400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.97%. The factory inventory was 851400 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons, and the social inventory was 3108200 tons, a decrease of 132300 tons. The total inventory was 3959600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 139400 tons. The production and demand of hot - rolled coil both increase, and the total inventory reduction situation is good. Currently, the absolute inventory level is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in export demand. [6][8]

制作日期: 2025/03/27 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内商品期货夜盘收盘多数上涨,能源化工品普遍上涨,甲醇、苯乙烯、 LPG 涨近 1%。黑色系全线上涨,铁矿石涨 1.48%,焦炭涨 1.3%,焦煤涨 1.07%。 农产品涨跌不一。基本金属涨跌不一,沪银涨 0.57%,沪铝涨 0.37%,不锈钢涨 0.34%，氧化铝跌 0.65%，沪铜跌 1.08%。沪金涨 0.08%，沪银涨 0.05%。 2. 国际油价全线上涨，美油 5 月合约涨 1.36%，报 69.94 美元/桶。布油 6 月合 约涨 1.31%，报 73.34 美元/桶。 3. 国际贵金属期货小幅收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.02%报 3026.6 美元/盎司, COMEX 白银期货涨 0.07%报 34.21 美元/盎司。 4. 伦敦基本金属多数收跌, LME 期铜跌 1.86%报 9907 美元/吨, LME 期锌跌 0.56% 报 2952 美元/吨，LME 期镍跌 0.15%报 16195 美元/吨，LME 期铝跌 0.12%报 2605 美元/吨,LME 期锡跌 0.96%报 34680 美元/吨,LME 期铅涨 0.31%报 ...