1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend, and it is expected to continue the oscillatory trend [1]. - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, with prices rising in the north and falling slightly in the south. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival, and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The egg - laying hen inventory in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly, with significant drops in March and April and a narrowing decline in May. It is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. - The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival, and it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - The domestic soybean spot market price is stable with a slight upward trend. Northeast产区 prices are stable, farmers' asking prices are unchanged, and most traders buy casually and consume inventory. Multi - platform soybean auctions attract attention and have good transactions. There is pre - Spring Festival replenishment demand, but it is difficult for traders to raise prices [1]. Corn - The domestic corn spot market atmosphere is strong, especially in the Northeast. The average purchase price of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast increased by 0.7% week - on - week, in North China by 0.6% week - on - week, in northern ports by 0.66% week - on - week, and decreased by 0.4% in southern ports week - on - week. The strong pattern weakens from north to south and from production areas to sales areas. Deep - processing enterprises still have pre - holiday replenishment demand, and the increase in grassroots supply does not form pressure. There are concerns about the upside space due to the price inversion between production and sales areas and continuous reserve auctions. It is recommended to view it as wide - range oscillation before the Spring Festival and consider buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. Egg - Based on chick - replenishment data, the inventory of egg - laying hens in the first half of 2026 will decline monthly. The inventory decline is most significant in March and April due to low previous chick - replenishment and accelerated culling of old hens. In May, the decline narrows, and the industry enters a supply - demand adjustment transition period. The market is fluctuating, and there is no obvious driving factor. Since the inventory margin has improved slightly compared to the second half of last year, it is not recommended to be overly bearish [2]. Pig - At the end of 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%, and it was 101.6% of the normal reserve. In October 2025, the sow inventory was 39.9 million. In 2025, the national pig slaughter was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5%. The pig de - capacity process is ongoing. The spot supply is expected to be large around the Spring Festival. The demand has increased, but it is difficult for near - month and spot prices to rise continuously. Far - month prices depend on capacity reduction in the past two months and the number of sows [2][3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 豆粕：AgRural 公司：截至上周四，巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收割进度已达种 植面积的 4.9%。将巴西 2025/26 年度大豆产量预期上调至 1.81 亿吨，此前预估 为 1.804 亿吨。主要作物产量预期继续小幅上调，若后期天气配合，全球谷物与 油籽供应前景将更为宽松。初期收割与种植进度符合季节性规律，未来市场关注 点将转向单产确认及产区天气变化。USDA 出口检验：截至 2026 年 1 月 22 日的 一周，美国大豆出口检验量为 1,324,408 吨，去年同期为 738,028 吨。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口检验总量达到 20,668,363 吨，同比减少 37.5%。2025/26 年度迄今美国大豆出口达到全年出口目标的 48.2%。 据 Mysteel 对国内主要油厂调查数据显示：2026 年第 4 周，全国主要油厂 大豆库存下降，豆粕库存下降，未执行合同下降。 其中大豆库存 658.99 万吨， 较上周减少 28.34 万吨，减幅 4.12%，同比去年增加 207. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information Group 2: Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market is currently in a pattern of high inventory and high supply. In the short - term, due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the price is weak, but there may be a rebound from over - selling, especially after April next year. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises and the production reduction situation of caustic soda production enterprises [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - Over the weekend, the price of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market continued to decline, with some orders negotiated on a one - by - one basis and actual orders down by 10 - 20. The procurement volume and price of downstream customers outside the province were low, providing little support to Shandong. The procurement price of alumina in the province dropped by 15 to 600 over the weekend [1] - The caustic soda operating rate was 87.70% (+1.00%), and the weekly output was 86.30 tons (+1.00%). For demand, the operating rate of main downstream alumina was 85.18% (-0.65%), the weekly output was 183.90 tons (-1.40), and the port inventory was 16.80 (+3.20). The operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 56.54% (-2.22%); that of viscose staple fiber was 88.43% (+0.00%); that of white cardboard was 74.37% (-6.30%); that of broad - leaf pulp was 89.70% (-1.30%) [1] - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 22, China's caustic soda (converted to 100%) output in December was 4.217 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. The cumulative output from January to December was 46.535 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the domestic demand expansion strategy from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small and medium - sized enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the individual consumer loan fiscal interest - subsidy policy to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. Currently, the warehouse receipt cost is lower than the spot price. The short - term price decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons. The futures price has continuously hit new lows. In the short - term weak supply - demand situation, the price is weak, but beware of over - selling rebounds, especially after April next year [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：高位震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【期现行情】 【行情分析】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1787 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏弱。最 终收于 1790 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅-0.17%，持仓量 244860 手（-1608 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+278 手，空头-1800 手。其中， 东证期货净多单+2260 手、平安期货净多单-1189 手；瑞达期货净空单-1060 手， 永安期货净空单+829 手。 2026 年 1 月 27 日，尿素仓单数量 12699 张，环比上个交易日-575 张，其中 安徽中能（厂库）-25 张，河北东光（厂库）-550 张。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 现货方面：今日现货行情稳中小涨，成交相对顺畅，预收订单充足下，预 计现货价格坚挺。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1690-1730 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 今日尿素低开高走， ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月27日 【行情分析】 1月27日，新增齐鲁石化HDPE 2线等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至89%左右，目前开工率处于中性 水平。截至1月23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近 年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农 历同期偏低位水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒 冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上， 新增产能50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑 料开工率略有下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜 生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假， 节前备货有限，终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪 好转，塑料短期跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 一、市场行情回顾 需求端：表需同比去年大幅增长，但周环比小幅下降，冬储可能开 始，截至 1 月 22 日当周，表需数据 185.52 万吨，周环比减少 4.82 万吨， 年同比增加 68.61 万吨，整体需求相比去年大幅增加，显示有韧性。节前 仍然有冬储备货需求支撑。 库存端：库存小幅去库，厂库去库，社库累库，截止 1 月 22 日当 周，总库存 452.1 万吨，周环比上升 14.03 万吨，年同比下降 31.11 万 吨，社库 305.12 万吨，周环比上升 7.71 万吨，年同比下降 43.37 万吨， 厂库 148.98 万吨，周同比上升 6.32 万吨，年同比增加 12.26 万吨，总库 存环比上升，但同比处于近年同期低位，整体库存压力可控，厂库持续累 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 计，说明产量回升速度快于需求消化速度，钢厂端库存压力边际增加，社 库环比微增，但同比大幅下降，反应今年社会库存去化效果较好，流通环 节压力远小于去年同期。对价格有一定支撑。 ■ ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 棉花：新疆棉库存下降，加工企业积极销售，现货基差坚挺，下游棉纱品种 延续分化表现，中高支纱订单稳定，低支纱偏弱运行。整体看，短期市场基本面 驱动有限，价格跟随市场情绪波动，或将延续区间震荡态势。棉企库存较为充裕， 积极报价促销，纺企逢下跌点价增加，上涨过程中成交有所减少，年前补库进入 最后阶段，局部成交略增。下方空间相对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：北半球主产国进入生产高峰期，增产预期背景下，国际糖市短期基本 面变化有限，若无其他因素指引，预计将继续维持 14.5~15.5 美分/磅区间震荡。 巴西对外贸易秘书处（Secex）公布的出口数据显示，巴西 1 月前四周出口糖和 糖蜜173.76万吨，日均出口量为10.86万吨。2025年1月，巴西糖出口量为206.22 万吨，日均出口量为 9.37 万吨。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3997 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 5077 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利 润为 1443 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算利润为 ...

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：库存持续累积，下游节前存补库预期 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内延续窄幅震荡，收于 788 元/吨， 较前一个交易日收盘价上涨+3.5 元/吨，涨幅+0.45%，成交 21.2 万手，持仓量 57.1 万手，沉淀资金 99 亿。期货盘面陷入窄幅震荡整理，短期稍显偏弱，关 注 780 短期支撑附近进一步测试。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 三、宏观层面 国内宏观层面，本周延续"弱现实、稳政策、强预期"的基本格局。内需 修复节奏仍偏慢，消费与投资尚未形成有效共振，出口对增长的边际支撑仍在 但难以对冲内需不足，宏观环境以托底为主。 海外宏观方面，本周逻辑围绕需求边际走弱、通胀缓慢回落、政策不确定 性上升展开。美国消费仍具韧性，但收入增速放缓、储蓄率处于低位，消费更 多依赖信用与就业稳定，内生动能趋弱;通胀端看，核心通胀继续降温，商品端 压力缓解，但服务须黏性仍在，通胀回落并不顺畅。市场交易重心转向美联储 换帅预期，尤其是偏鹰候选人上位的可能性，使政策前景 ...

焦煤日报：需求后劲不足，焦煤偏弱震荡 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【行情分析】 焦煤高开低走，日内下跌。供应端，蒙煤近两日通关数量高涨，位于近年 来同期高位水平，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率 为 89.33%，环比增加 0.86%。焦煤年前停产企业多发复工，国内产量有增长， 原煤日均产量达到 199.44 万吨。本期焦煤矿山库存转为累库，周度环比增加 1.98 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 44.86 万吨，钢厂累库 1.04 万吨，冬储补库进 程放缓，库存下沉进度放慢，补库力度环比历年同期弱，尤其是钢厂累库节奏 强度均慢。下游铁水产量环比增加 0.04%，周度日均产量 228.1 万吨。焦炭一 轮提涨未落地，前期焦煤补库接近尾声，供需压力进入宽松阶段，而目前尚未 见到矿端由于年前安全检查而有减产的迹象，焦煤短期预计偏弱为主。 【冠通期货研究报告】 需求数据： 1 月 16 日-1 月 23 日当周，下游独立焦企日均产量 63.31 万吨，环 比-0.14 万吨；247 家钢厂焦炭日均产量 46.9 万吨，环比+0.18 万吨。247 家钢 厂日均铁水产量 22 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coke industry is short - term sideways with a wide - range oscillation, short - term downward pressure, and attention to support near the previous low, with a low - buying mindset [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage, with overall weak supply and demand. Downstream steel mills are announcing shutdown and maintenance plans for the Spring Festival, and pre - holiday restocking is nearing completion, leading to a further decline in coke demand. However, coking losses are further expanding, and coke enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. Coupled with a generally warm macro - environment and frequent fiscal and monetary policy announcements, there are still expectations for subsequent policies [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of January 23, due to the expansion of losses, the production enthusiasm of some small and medium - sized enterprises declined. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 0.36 tons to 81.45 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 15.14 tons to 1012.35 tons, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 4% [1] - The average profit per ton of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 66 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 51 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was - 8 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 103 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - Terminal demand maintains off - season characteristics. Although steel mill profits have slightly recovered, the overall enthusiasm for resuming production on the supply side remains limited. This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 78.68%, a year - on - year increase of 0.7 percentage points. The profitability rate increased by 0.86 percentage points from last week to 40.69%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly recovered to 85.51%, and the daily average hot metal output increased slightly by 0.09 tons to 228.1 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - This week, the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased slightly. The total coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises was 1177.71 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased to 803.24 tons, and the imported coking coal inventory at ports continued to increase to 562.99 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased to 2818.34 tons, still 15.87% lower year - on - year [2] News - According to incomplete statistics from Mysteel, recently, 4 steel mills have released maintenance plans, and shutdown and maintenance plans for steel mills during the Spring Festival are being announced one after another [2]