Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coke supply is continuously increasing and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The demand side has low iron - water production and poor steel - mill profits, resulting in overall weak supply and demand for coke. However, the winter - storage restocking demand of coking plants and steel mills is gradually emerging, and the macro - environment has generally improved. Therefore, it is expected that coke will run in a short - term volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of December 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 tons, the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.34% to 642.2 tons, and the port coke inventory also increased by nearly 2%. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 tons week - on - week to 978.64 tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1] - The terminal demand for steel is weak, mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%. The daily average pig - iron output increased by 0.03 tons week - on - week to 226.58 tons, ending the previous five - week consecutive decline, and is 1.29 tons less than the same period last year [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Steel and coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 3.43 tons to 1039.72 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased slightly by 1.73 tons to 806.72 tons, and the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased by 10.1 tons. At the same time, the port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 tons, reaching a nearly 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to regulate crude steel production, prohibit illegal new capacity additions, and promote survival of the fittest. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will intensively regulate "involution - style" competition and firmly curb low - price and low - quality competition [2] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the futures trading floor, the 05 - contract coke opened at 1735, dropped to a minimum of 1677.5, and closed at 1720, adding 781 lots. The price first decreased and then increased during the day, and it is in a volatile trend on the daily - line level. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [3] - In the spot market, the port spot market is stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1460. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, and the inventory at the two ports has slightly increased compared with the previous trading day [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 大豆：国内大豆市场延续"总量宽松、结构分化"的核心格局，全球供应充 裕背景下，国产高蛋白大豆因货源偏紧与刚需支撑价格坚挺，普通蛋白豆受库存 压力交易平淡；国际大豆期货震荡走弱，进口豆拍卖成交率下滑反映市场情绪趋 于理性，"优质优价"仍是市场核心逻辑。东北大豆整体震荡，优质优价，核心 区间清晰，节奏先抑后扬再回落，政策托底与拍卖放量形成双向牵制。预估豆一 趋势上仍然延续宽幅震荡走势。 玉米：现货方面，市场虽较为平静，但各方均处于博弈观望状态：基层售粮 进度虽快于去年同期（约 45%），但流通粮源减少；港口库存低于去年同期；集 中售卖压力尚未显现，需谨防踩踏式售粮。后续需重点关注基层销售进度及玉米 上市量变化。玉米预估节前保持震荡走势，上方空间短期有限。远月方面或存在 重心略微抬升，在供应压力过后或存在反弹预期。 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、中储粮网、 粮达网、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短线震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内偏强。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日增 46.7 万手，持仓 量较昨日增 13743 手；日内最高 1207，最低 1171，收盘 1200，（较昨日结算价） 涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。 2，现货市场：淡稳维持。企业装置大稳小动，个别企业计划检修，供应有 所下降。企业发货前期订单为主，新订单一般，下游需求表现一般，维持低价刚 需补库为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 100 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家 ...

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The cotton market is currently stable and favorable, but there is a risk of a short - term correction due to the exhaustion of upward momentum, and it is recommended to wait for the price to pull back before entering the market [1] - For sugar, although there is a lack of short - term drivers, it is still a good choice to gradually buy at low prices in the future considering the undervalued far - month contracts [2] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - As of December 25, 2025, the weekly inventory of imported cotton at major ports increased by 0.84% to 39.52 million tons. Among them, the inventory at ports and surrounding warehouses in Shandong decreased by 19.94% year - on - year to 33.2 million tons, and that in Jiangsu was about 3.40 million tons, with other ports having about 2.92 million tons. This week, mainly Brazilian and Australian cotton arrived at ports, with more inflows than outflows [1] - The adjustment of the planting area structure in the far - month has led to a certain rebound in the futures market. The export demand for the near - month has improved, and the stage of maximum supply pressure has passed. However, the widening gap between domestic and foreign cotton prices and the continuous rebound of domestic prices may lead to the exhaustion of short - term upward momentum [1] Sugar - As of December 24, 2025, for the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Thailand, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 11.5321 billion tons, a decrease of 1.9633 billion tons (14.54%) compared with the same period last year. The sugar content of sugar - cane was 11.40%, a decrease of 0.08% compared with last year. The sugar - making rate increased by 0.027% to 8.676%. The sugar output was 1.0005 billion tons, a decrease of 0.1667 billion tons (14.28%) compared with the same period last year [2] - With the foreign market closed and no reference for the domestic market, there is an obvious differentiation between the near - month and far - month contracts in the domestic market. The near - month contract has fallen sharply, while the far - month contract is in the process of a volatile rebound, and the 01 - 05 spread has significantly narrowed [2]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯苯因关税问题，韩国对中国纯苯出口量增加，进口集中到货，港口库存压 力明显，但后续累库会逐步放缓，目前呈现供强需弱的格局。 苯乙烯方面：12 月 12 日至 18 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 34.68 万吨， 较上期+2.38%;工厂产能利用率 69.13%，环比+1.02%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 26.18 万吨，环比-3.89%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.10 万吨，环比上周 -4.23%。截至 12 月 22 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 13.93 万吨，环比上周+3.41%; 华南港口库存在 1.1 万吨，环比上周-26.67%。截至 12 月 17 日，苯乙烯非一体 化利润在-203 元/吨。截至 12 月 17 日，苯乙烯一体化利润在 421.08 元/吨。 苯乙烯在第四季度检修较多，港口库存去化，但根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性较大。 【宏观面分析】 工业和信息化部负责人透露，2025 年工业经济稳中有进，预计全年规模以 上工业增加值同比增长 5.9%。 国家发改委发表文章《大力推动传统产业优化提升》。文章指出，对新能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rebound in the past two weeks, and there is an expectation of steel mill复产 in January. Demand decline shows off - season characteristics. Observe whether the winter storage market can start in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - expectation is loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has shown continuous volatility after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to continue the volatile and weak consolidation [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the rebar main contract on Thursday was 1,132,633 lots, a significant increase from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 47,415 lots. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3090 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3132 yuan/ton, and closed at 3118 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 0.42% [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream area was 3290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 172 yuan/ton to the spot, which supported the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 2.71 million tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks, and was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 0.39% lower year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, unchanged from last week. The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.03 million tons week - on - week to 2.2658 million tons, 129,000 tons lower year - on - year. There is an expectation of steel mill复产, which will weaken price support [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak, with the average daily trading volume of building materials in the country remaining at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past five years. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year. Demand showed regional differences, with construction in the north stagnant due to cold weather and the south having some demand resilience due to rush construction of existing projects. Pay attention to whether winter storage can drive demand in January [2]. Inventory - As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. The social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, a decrease of 188,100 tons week - on - week, and the destocking slowed down. The steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, a slight increase of 5,200 tons. The overall inventory pressure was controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The central economic conference proposed to use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts flexibly and efficiently, keep liquidity abundant, and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aims to stabilize the real - estate market, control new construction, destock, and optimize supply. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The 14th Five - Year Plan provides a transformation path for the steel industry, and macro - increment demand is relatively limited, but the loose cycle provides support [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal and coke stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, loose policy expectations, large futures discount providing bottom support, strong iron ore, and stable coking coal and coke enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Unexpected steel mill复产 in January, seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - After the disturbance of macro events gradually fades, the trading logic of iron ore will gradually return to fundamentals. With a decline in shipments, slow demand recovery, and a slight improvement in the transfer of port inventory to downstream, along with the futures discount under the back structure and positive basis of futures contracts, the futures and spot markets will form a certain resonance in the short - term, and the market will gradually strengthen in a volatile manner [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly during the day, closing at 783 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price with a gain of +0.58%. The trading volume was 291,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 13,000 lots to 581,000 lots, with the settled funds exceeding 10 billion yuan. The disk price strengthened again in the short - term [1] - Spot price: Among the mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 2 to 791, and Super Special powder dropped 2 to 671. The main swap contract was 104.35 (+0.5) US dollars/ton. Spot prices declined slightly, and swap prices maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend [1] - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 816.1 yuan/ton, with a basis of 33.1 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The spread between iron ore contracts 1 - 5 was 18.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 22 yuan. Iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure and positive basis, indicating strong support for futures [1] Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with shipments from Australia and Brazil weakening, especially a significant decline in Brazil. Shipments from non - mainstream countries increased month - on - month, and the arrivals this period decreased month - on - month [2] - Demand side: Hot metal production remained basically stable, with both blast furnace restart and maintenance. As raw material prices weakened, the profitability rate of steel mills increased slightly, but the release of restocking demand was still slow [2] - Inventory side: Port inventory increased significantly, with more unloading and warehousing at ports, and the congestion situation improved month - on - month. Steel mill inventory increased to some extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average, and the release of restocking demand was still slow [2] Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: Recently, the combination of "low inflation + weak reality + change of Federal Reserve chairman" in the US is conducive to the Fed's easing. The quality of economic data in January is expected to return to normal levels, providing more guidance for the market. The overseas macro - environment will continue to warm up in 2026. The "loose fiscal + loose monetary" policy in the US is conducive to promoting economic prosperity. In December, the European Central Bank announced to keep interest rates unchanged and raised the GDP forecasts for this year and next. Japan's interest rate hike was implemented as expected, not a radical tightening, and it raised the GDP growth forecast for 2025 and maintained the forecast for 2026 [3][4] - Domestic: On December 23, the National Conference on Housing and Urban - Rural Development was held in Beijing. The meeting arranged for 2026 to carry out urban renewal, stabilize the real estate market, and accelerate the quality improvement and upgrading of the construction industry. The renovation of underground pipe networks is still a highlight, and gas pipelines, drainage and flood prevention projects, etc. are all planned, with a small increase in expected capital investment next year. In addition, the year - on - year growth of social retail sales in November was 1.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, with the continued weakening of commodity retail being the main drag factor, while service consumption continued to improve. In terms of investment, manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investment all continued to weaken, while exports performed well and remained an important support [4]

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 81.65 82.74 -1.09 开工率 73.893 73.990 -0.097 产量 71.19 72.14 -0.95 产线条数 218 219 -1 重质产量 38.56 39.03 -0.47 产量 108.4045 108.5945 -0.19 轻质产量 32.63 33.11 -0.48 厂内库存 143.85 149.93 -6.08 库存 5862.3 5855.8 6.5 重质库存 70.3 77.17 -6.87 库存可用天数 26.5 26.5 0 轻质库存 73.55 72.76 0.79 库存可用天数 11.93 12.43 -0.5 产销率 108.54 99.31 9.23 天然气利润 -186.4 -181.4 -5 氨碱法毛利 -57.4 -66.7 9.3 石油焦利润 -7.21 -0.07 -7.14 联产法毛利 -20.5 -41 20.5 煤制气利润 -21.88 -7.63 -14.25 基差 -49 -46 -3 基差 -58 -52 -6 1-5价差 69 56 13 1-5价差 115 109 6 品种套利 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 15,858.66, showing an increase of 346.03 compared to the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 315.06, with a week - on - week increase of 1.61 [1] - **Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory**: The current inventory of imported ore in steel mills is 8,860.19, rising by 136.24 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 280.04, a decrease of 0.52 compared to the previous period [1] - **Arrival Volume**: The current arrival volume is 2,646.7, showing a decrease of 76.70 from the previous period [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The current production of domestic iron ore concentrate is 37.1, with a decrease of 0.61 compared to the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The current daily average hot metal production is 226.58, an increase of 0.03 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Starting Rate**: The current starting rate of steel mills is 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The current capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Profit Rate**: The current profit rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a decrease of 2.00 percentage points from the previous period [1] Inventory by Ore Type - **Coarse Ore**: The current inventory of coarse ore is 12,006.4, showing an increase of 206.83 compared to the previous period [1] - **Lump Ore**: The current inventory of lump ore is 2,144.66, with an increase of 76.19 from the previous period [1] - **Pellets**: The current inventory of pellets is 351.56, an increase of 30.92 compared to the previous period [1] - **Concentrate**: The current inventory of concentrate is 1,356.04, rising by 32.09 from the previous period [1] - **Trading Ore**: The current inventory of trading ore is 10,367.61, an increase of 269.95 compared to the previous period [1] - **Brazilian Ore**: The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,669.56, a decrease of 125.5 from the previous period [1] - **Australian Ore**: The current inventory of Australian ore is 6,941.26, an increase of 268.65 compared to the previous period [1]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Most domestic futures main contracts rose at the 23:00 close, with fuel oil and rapeseed meal up nearly 2%, and PX and PTA up over 1.5%. Jiao coal, coke, LPG, and glass fell over 1% [5]. - At the 1:00 close, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and international copper main contracts rose, while the alumina main contract fell [5]. - At the 2:30 close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - China has lodged solemn representations with the US over its plan to impose 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products [9]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a good call with US representatives, emphasizing efforts to end the conflict [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased slightly, while domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory decreased [11]. - Russia's plan to produce 100 million tons of LNG annually has been postponed due to sanctions [11]. - Iraq has lost power - generation capacity due to the interruption of Iranian natural - gas supply [11]. - China will take measures to ensure the supply and price stability of fertilizers [13]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted trading rules for platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures contracts [15][16]. - Tianqi Lithium will change its spot - trading settlement price starting from January 1, 2026 [16]. - Wanrun New Energy will conduct production - line maintenance, reducing its lithium iron phosphate output [16]. - Four leading silicon - wafer companies have significantly raised their quotes [17][35]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026 [17]. Black - Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit for coke and coking coal futures contracts [19]. - China will strengthen the construction of infrastructure and energy reserves [19]. - The average profit per ton of independent coking plants varies by region [19]. - The output, inventory, and demand of rebar have changed in the week of December 25 [20]. - Coal - mine production in Zhaotong, Yunnan, has been temporarily suspended [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [24]. - Sugar - mill operations and inventory in Guangxi have changed [24]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be slightly lower due to drought risks [24]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% and achieving a 7 - day winning streak [26]. - A - share listed companies' private placements have been active this year [28]. - The net inflow of the CSI A500ETF in December has been significant [29]. - Most private multi - asset strategy products have achieved positive returns this year [29]. - Analysts are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026 [29]. - The IPO application of Dapu Micro has been approved [31]. Industry - China has cracked down on financial "black - gray industries" [32]. - New regulations have been issued for the information disclosure of bank and insurance asset - management products [32]. - China will regulate the e - cigarette market [32]. - The government will strengthen the supervision of entrusted food production [32]. - Many game version numbers have been approved in December [33]. - Silicon - wafer prices have increased [35]. - China has made a breakthrough in the super - high - speed maglev field [35]. - Mobile phone shipments in China have increased [35]. - Shanghai will support the construction of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor [35]. Overseas - Israel may have another military conflict with Iran [36]. - Hungary's Prime Minister believes the root of the Russia - Ukraine conflict lies in the decline of Western Europe [36]. - Japan's 2026 fiscal - year initial budget has reached a record high [36]. - Japan has raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year [38]. - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates [39]. - The Bank of Korea may cut interest rates in 2026 [40]. International Stock Markets - Japanese stocks rose slightly, while Vietnamese stocks tumbled [41]. - Morgan Stanley warns of three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026 [41]. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new - energy materials leading the gains [42]. - The trading rules of platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [42]. - Russia's oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [42]. Bonds - China's bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and Japanese 2 - year bond auctions were weak [43]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday [45]. 4. Upcoming Events - The People's Bank of China has 562 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing at 09:20 [47]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:30 [47]. - The 2025 Embodied Intelligence Development Frontier Conference and the 2025 Greater Bay Area Digital Chain Ecosystem Conference will be held on December 26 [47].