Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upside potential as its supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, downstream order cycles are shortening, and some PP spot prices are weak. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow due to new PP production capacity coming online and the gradual end of the agricultural film peak season [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week-on-week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic braiding, the main downstream of PP拉丝, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week-on-week, and plastic braiding orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 26, new maintenance units such as Hainan Refining & Chemical JPP were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard PP拉丝 dropped to around 26.5% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory clearance accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, due to the oversupply of crude oil and the escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year was put into operation in mid-October, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic braiding continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and the market lacks large-scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PP2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions, reaching a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,308 yuan/ton, and finally closing at 6,292 yuan/ton, below the 20-day moving average, with a gain of 0.24%. The position volume decreased by 5,302 lots to 530,699 lots [2] - PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends. The price of PP拉丝 was reported at 5,920 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 26, new maintenance units such as Hainan Refining & Chemical JPP were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 81.5%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard PP拉丝 dropped to around 26.5% [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week ending December 26, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 53.24% week-on-week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of plastic braiding, the main downstream of PP拉丝, dropped by 0.26 percentage points to 43.74% week-on-week, and plastic braiding orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Friday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 50,000 tons week-on-week to 560,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory clearance accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week-on-week at $740 per ton [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market is in a situation of long - short game, with the futures opening high and closing down. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly, mainly determined by downstream stocking and daily production levels. There is no new export policy, so there is no driving force for upward rebound [1]. - After the previous pending orders are digested, urea factories are expected to reduce prices to attract orders as they fail to stimulate downstream fertilizer - stocking enthusiasm [1][5]. - The compound fertilizer factory's operating load continued to decline this period, mainly affected by environmental protection restrictions in North China. After the environmental protection restrictions are lifted, the operation may pick up, and the raw material procurement end has resilience. The winter - storage market is expected to operate stably [1]. - The inventory reduction amplitude increased this period. The current inventory is 45.61 tons lower than the same period last year, mainly due to partial production cuts in both upstream and downstream devices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures of the urea main 2605 contract opened at 1737 yuan/ton, opened high and went high, and closed down. It finally closed at 1735 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.06%. The trading volume was 193,654 lots (- 2,733 lots). Among the top 20 main positions, the long position decreased by 1,516 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,078 lots [2]. - On December 26, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,750, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. - The ex - factory price range of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei urea factories is mostly between 1,640 - 1,710 yuan/ton. The prices of Henan factories are at the lower end, and a few Shandong factories' quotes are at the higher end [1][5]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day. The basis of the May contract was - 25 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton) [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the national daily urea production was 198,600 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 81.84% [11].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年12月26日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少1.13个百分点至77.23%，PVC开工 率继续减少，处于近年同期中性水平。冬季到来，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.87个百分点，下游制品 订单不佳。出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单小幅增加，但印度市场价格偏低，印度需求有限， 台湾台塑1月份CFR中国环比持平，但CFR印度、CFR东南亚分别下跌20美元/吨、30美元/吨。本周社会 库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、 新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30 大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比继续回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。 新增产能上，30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近试生产。十五五"将谋划一批带动全局的重大工程、重大项 目、重大载体，全国工业和信息化工作会议强调，2026年要深入整治"内卷式"竞争，反内卷情绪 进一步升温，大宗商品市场情绪提振，氯碱综合毛利下降，部分生产企业开工预期下降 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% week - on - week, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced at 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries in Shandong have plans to switch to producing residual oil, and Zhongyou Gaofu plans to stop production, so asphalt supply will decline [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 4 percentage points to 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the north continues to be released. The overall demand in the south is average [1] - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Price: This week, the asphalt price in Shandong remained stable, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1][3] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.03% to 2,995 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,987 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,020 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 23,893 to 157,219 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract remained at - 75 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% week - on - week, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. From January to November 2025, the actual cumulative completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a further decline from - 0.1% from January to October 2025 [4] - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of December 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 4 percentage points to 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing stock: From January to November 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as from January to October [4] - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of December 19, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is affected by factors such as inventory changes, import pressure, and macro - policies. There is a potential for market sentiment to be boosted by the anti - involution signal, and attention can be paid to the low - valuation repair idea [1][2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 24, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1412,500 tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The significant inventory accumulation in ports this week was mainly in Jiangsu. The import pressure was relieved to some extent due to the reduced operating rate in Iran, but the estimated imports from December 2025 to January 2026 are between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - In 2025, the industrial economy was stable with progress, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was expected to increase by 5.9% year - on - year. For the "new three" industries such as new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and innovate. For raw material industries such as steel and petrochemicals, the key is to balance supply and demand and optimize the structure [2][3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market showed an intraday narrow - range oscillation. The daily K - line had a long lower shadow, and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily level was not effectively broken. There is a possibility of market sentiment being boosted by the anti - involution signal, and attention can be paid to the low - valuation repair idea, while also focusing on the previous low support [4]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. The output of hot-rolled coil rebounded this week but is at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for output to rise in the future. The rebound in apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to decline, but the total amount is still at a high level. With the expectation of macro-loose policy, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom-bust line. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the winter storage market in January and the recovery slope of production capacity. The daily K-line shows a lower shadow positive line, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased by 6,522 lots, with a trading volume of 490,404 lots, an increase compared with the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,253 yuan, and the high was 3,288 yuan. It fluctuated within the day and closed at 3,283 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.06% [1]. - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coil in the mainstream area of Shanghai was reported at 3,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot is -13 yuan, and the basis is close to parity [2]. Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons compared with the previous week. It decreased by 136,000 tons year-on-year. This week, the output of hot-rolled coil rebounded after a sharp decline last week. Currently, it is near the lowest level of the year and at a low level in the past four years, which enhances price support. The production reduction is mainly due to profit contraction, more steel mill overhauls, some steel mills switching to rebar production, and the seasonal off-season [3]. - Demand side: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons compared with the previous week. It decreased by 22,900 tons year-on-year. This week, the apparent demand rebounded, and the export rush market appeared. However, the winter storage market in January still needs to be followed up [3]. - Inventory side: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons compared with the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, and the de - stocking accelerated, indicating that the demand in late December was resilient, which should be due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory is at a high level in the past four years. In the future, the speed of continued de - stocking of inventory needs to be followed up [3]. - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced. In the short term, it will lead to fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. Rectifying involution - style competition in depth is listed as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4]. - External macro: The core CPI in the United States increased by 2.6% year - on - year in November, the slowest growth rate since the beginning of 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The output on the supply side has decreased significantly. There is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("the 14th Five - Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have enhanced cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeds expectations, the demand weakens seasonally, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the glass industry is "short - term volatility" [1] Core Viewpoint - The short - term price of glass may maintain a volatile trend, and pay attention to the pressure near the upper Bollinger Band in the short term. Future focus should be on macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The glass main contract opened low and moved high, showing strength during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band tightened, indicating a volatile signal. The trading volume increased by 615,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 9,426 lots. The intraday high was 1,066, the low was 1,026, and the closing price was 1,057, up 7 yuan/ton or 0.67% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: In the North China market, transactions were flexible with narrow price fluctuations, and some small - plate prices declined. In the Central and East China markets, there were few changes, and enterprises mainly sold at stable prices. In the Northwest market, trading was light, and some processing plants had sporadic holidays, restricting production and sales. In the Southwest market, prices were temporarily stable, and some enterprises planned to raise prices [1] - **Basis**: The spot price in North China was 1,010, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% compared to the 18th. The national float glass output was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry's average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong with a designed capacity of 900 tons per day was shut down for cold - repair, reigniting the expectation of production line cold - repair [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 heavy boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - **Demand**: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. Orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, there were few changes in the central and eastern regions, orders in South China increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days decreasing slightly month - on - month [2] - **Profit**: As of December 25, the profit from natural - gas - based production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit from petroleum - coke - based production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit from coal - gas - based production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply - side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the elimination of some enterprises' production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's mention of rectifying "involution - style" competition has boosted short - term market sentiment. However, real estate development investment and funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, with weak completion and new construction, and real - estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on spot prices. Overall, short - term prices may maintain a volatile trend [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The coke supply is continuously increasing and it is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The demand side has low iron - water production and poor steel - mill profits, resulting in overall weak supply and demand for coke. However, the winter - storage restocking demand of coking plants and steel mills is gradually emerging, and the macro - environment has generally improved. Therefore, it is expected that coke will run in a short - term volatile manner [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of December 26, the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 1.25% to 92.24 tons, the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.34% to 642.2 tons, and the port coke inventory also increased by nearly 2%. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 14.36 tons week - on - week to 978.64 tons, reaching a 12 - week high with a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [1] - The average profit of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 18 yuan/ton. The average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi is - 3 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 27 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke is - 64 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke is 35 yuan/ton [1] - The terminal demand for steel is weak, mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills increased by 1.3 percentage points to 37.23%. The daily average pig - iron output increased by 0.03 tons week - on - week to 226.58 tons, ending the previous five - week consecutive decline, and is 1.29 tons less than the same period last year [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Steel and coking enterprises are cautious in purchasing. The inventory of independent coking enterprises increased slightly by 3.43 tons to 1039.72 tons, the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased slightly by 1.73 tons to 806.72 tons, and the coking coal inventory of coal mines increased by 10.1 tons. At the same time, the port's imported coking coal inventory increased by 23.09 tons. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 1.47% to 2647.24 tons, reaching a nearly 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decline of nearly 14% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission will continue to regulate crude steel production, prohibit illegal new capacity additions, and promote survival of the fittest. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will intensively regulate "involution - style" competition and firmly curb low - price and low - quality competition [2] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On the futures trading floor, the 05 - contract coke opened at 1735, dropped to a minimum of 1677.5, and closed at 1720, adding 781 lots. The price first decreased and then increased during the day, and it is in a volatile trend on the daily - line level. Attention should be paid to the support at the intraday low and the pressure of the 40 - day moving average [3] - In the spot market, the port spot market is stable. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1460. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, and the inventory at the two ports has slightly increased compared with the previous trading day [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 养殖产业链日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 大豆：国内大豆市场延续"总量宽松、结构分化"的核心格局，全球供应充 裕背景下，国产高蛋白大豆因货源偏紧与刚需支撑价格坚挺，普通蛋白豆受库存 压力交易平淡；国际大豆期货震荡走弱，进口豆拍卖成交率下滑反映市场情绪趋 于理性，"优质优价"仍是市场核心逻辑。东北大豆整体震荡，优质优价，核心 区间清晰，节奏先抑后扬再回落，政策托底与拍卖放量形成双向牵制。预估豆一 趋势上仍然延续宽幅震荡走势。 玉米：现货方面，市场虽较为平静，但各方均处于博弈观望状态：基层售粮 进度虽快于去年同期（约 45%），但流通粮源减少；港口库存低于去年同期；集 中售卖压力尚未显现，需谨防踩踏式售粮。后续需重点关注基层销售进度及玉米 上市量变化。玉米预估节前保持震荡走势，上方空间短期有限。远月方面或存在 重心略微抬升，在供应压力过后或存在反弹预期。 执业资格证书编号：F03095187/Z0022441 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、中储粮网、 粮达网、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短线震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 26 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内偏强。120 分钟布林带三轨往上， 震荡偏强信号，盘中关注日线三十均线压力。成交量较昨日增 46.7 万手，持仓 量较昨日增 13743 手；日内最高 1207，最低 1171，收盘 1200，（较昨日结算价） 涨 16 元/吨，涨幅 1.35%。 2，现货市场：淡稳维持。企业装置大稳小动，个别企业计划检修，供应有 所下降。企业发货前期订单为主，新订单一般，下游需求表现一般，维持低价刚 需补库为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1300，基差 100 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，国内纯碱产量 71.18 万吨，环比-0.96 万吨， 跌幅 1.32%。其中，轻碱产量 32.63 万吨，环比-0.48 万吨。重碱产量 38.55 万 吨，环比-0.48 万吨。综合产能利用率 81.65%，上周 82.74%，环比-1.09%。其 中氨碱产能利用率 83.32%，环比-5.90%；联产产能利用率 73.85%，环比+0.79%。 15 家 ...