| 河北 1720 1720 0 | | --- | | 河南 1690 1680 10 | | 山东 1700 1690 10 | | 主流地区市场价 山西 1530 1530 0 | | （元/吨） 江苏 1680 1680 0 安徽 1670 1680 -10 | | 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 | | 河北东光 1700 1700 0 | | 工厂价 山东华鲁 1700 1700 0 （元/吨） 江苏灵谷 1730 1730 0 | | 安徽昊源 1650 1650 0 山东05基差 -20 -16 -4 | | 基差 山东01基差 -34 -32 -2 | | （元/吨） 河北05基差 20 -6 26 | | 河北01基差 6 -22 28 1-5价差 64 63 1 月差（元/吨） | | 5-9价差 -14 -16 2 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11228 11477 -249 | | 中东FOB 375 375 0 | | 美湾FOB 355.5 355.5 0 前一日国际报价: 埃及FOB 450 450 0 | | 大颗粒（美元/吨） | | 波罗 ...

发布日期：2025年12月10日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落， 欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较 难，美国仍在施压乌克兰。目前G7和欧盟考虑禁止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。美国 与委内瑞拉军事对峙升级，特朗普暗示，五角大楼将很快对委内瑞拉及其他地区的贩毒集团发动陆 地打击。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉、利比亚供应中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回落，美联储12 月议息会议尘埃落定后，市场仍将担忧原油需求，美国石油钻井平台数量回升，OPEC+持续增产，中 东地区出口增加，全球原油浮库持续增加，里海管道联盟处于维修状态的3号SPM将在11日左右恢复。 伊拉克近期恢复了卢克石油公司西古尔纳2号油田。叠加美国仍在极力促成俄乌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The commodity market has recovered, and urea opened higher but closed lower before strengthening intraday. The spot prices showed a mixed trend, and the market prices were affected by the futures trend, with low - price orders improving. The current supply - demand logic is relatively in a tight balance, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the short term. From a macro perspective, there is no obvious boost, but the micro - fundamentals are resilient, and it is expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The commodity market has recovered, and urea opened higher and then moved lower, showing an intraday upward trend. The spot prices were mixed, and low - price orders improved. The upstream plants had both shutdowns and restarts, and the gas - based plants were still gradually reducing production. The daily production data did not significantly decrease, and the downstream winter - storage fertilizers and export orders maintained a stable demand increase. The compound fertilizer factories' new orders were not selling well, and their profits were squeezed. The start - up load is expected to continue to rise this week but has limited room for growth. The current inventory decreased by 4.36% month - on - month, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,650 yuan/ton, opened higher and moved lower, and finally closed at 1,645 yuan/ton, up 0.06%. The trading volume was 142,791 lots, a decrease of 7,855 lots. Among the top twenty positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3,426 lots, and the short positions decreased by 5,340 lots. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 10, 2025, was 11,477, a decrease of 249 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot prices were mixed, and the market prices were affected by the futures trend, with low - price orders improving. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea from factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,630 - 1,680 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][4] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market prices increased today, and the futures closing price also rose. Based on Henan, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis for the January contract was 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton [6] Supply Data - On December 10, 2025, the national daily urea production was 199,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous day, and the start - up rate was 82.01% [9] Enterprise Inventory Data - As of December 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2342 million tons, a decrease of 56,300 tons or 4.36% from the previous week [10] Pre - sale Order Days - As of December 10, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.94 days, a decrease of 0.41 days or 5.58% from the previous period [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The PVC market is in a weak and volatile state recently. Although the termination of India's BIS policy on PVC and the possible cancellation of anti - dumping duties have some positive effects, factors such as the decline in PVC downstream demand, high inventory, new production capacity, and the traditional off - season in December lead to a weak market sentiment [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89% compared with the previous period, still at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly, and the orders for downstream products were poor [1]. - India terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating concerns about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, but after the price cut of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in December, the export orders declined, and last week's export orders were basically stable [1]. - Social inventory continued to increase last week and is still at a high level, with relatively large inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large [1]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year of Jiaxing Jiahua have been newly put into production. Although relevant departments are studying price - related work to boost bulk commodities, the start - up expectations of some production enterprises are decreasing, and the decline in production is limited. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the traditional off - season in December and the decline in coking coal prices suppress the market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and declined. The lowest price was 4,311 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,383 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,328 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.39%. The position decreased by 37,746 lots to 881,689 lots [2]. Basis - On December 10, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 4,320 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,328 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 8 yuan/ton, strengthening by 24 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up of some devices such as Hangjin Technology and Sichuan Jinlu decreased. The PVC start - up rate decreased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.89%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical, Tianjin Bohua, Qingdao Gulf, Gansu Yaowang, and Jiaxing Jiahua have been put into production [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to October 2025, the year - on - year decline in real estate investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large. As of the week of December 7, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 28.93% compared with the previous period, at the lowest level in recent years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of December 4, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.55% compared with the previous period to 1.0589 million tons, 26.77% higher than the same period last year, and the social inventory continued to increase and was still at a high level [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 10, 2025, the plastic market is expected to have weak and volatile trends. The supply side has new capacity put into operation and the plastic operating rate is slightly rising. The demand side sees the PE downstream operating rate at a low - level in the same period in recent years, with the agricultural film season ending and orders decreasing. The cost - end crude oil price is falling, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to potential new capacity and the exit of the agricultural film season [1] Group 3: According to Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level. As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film orders decreasing. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fell due to the resumption of production in some Iraqi oilfields and the decline in the refined - oil crack spread in Europe and America. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film season is ending and downstream demand is expected to decline. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] 2.期现行情 Futures - The 2601 plastic contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6523 yuan/ton, the highest was 6592 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6561 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, down 0.52%. The position volume decreased by 72,250 lots to 267,012 lots [2] Spot - Most PE spot prices fell, with the range from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6500 - 6770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8170 - 8880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6800 - 7570 yuan/ton [3] 3.基本面跟踪 - Supply side: On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level - Demand side: As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film and packaging film orders decreasing. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a low level in the same period in recent years - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons, 0.4 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $62/barrel, while the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4]

Group 1: Hot News - In December, the expected soybean production in the US for the 2025/2026 season is 4.253 billion bushels, unchanged from November; the expected ending stock is 290 million bushels, lower than the market expectation of 302 million bushels and unchanged from November; the expected yield per acre is 53 bushels, also unchanged from November [2] - Argentina's economic minister announced a reduction in soybean export tax from 26% to 24%, and a cut in the export tax of soybean by - products from 24.5% to 22.5%. Export taxes on wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum were also lowered [2] - On December 9, key coking enterprises from various regions held a market analysis meeting to discuss the supply - demand pattern and price trends of the coke market [2] - On December 9, it was reported that a polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established. It aims to explore potential strategic cooperation opportunities in the industry [3] - The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Supervision Administration ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [3] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include lithium carbonate, coking coal, live pigs, silver, and Shanghai gold [4] - Night - time performance of commodity futures: the precious metals sector had a 30.06% increase, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.61%, and the oilseeds and oils sector with 8.81% [4] - Changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days are presented, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, grains, and chemicals [5] Group 3: Performance of Major Asset Classes - For equity assets, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.37% and a monthly increase of 0.54%, while the Hang Seng Index had a daily decline of 1.29% and a monthly decline of 1.64% [6] - In the fixed - income category, 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.12% and a monthly increase of 0.04% [6] - Among commodities, the CRB Commodity Index had no daily change, and London spot gold had a 59.67% increase in the past year [6] Group 4: Major Commodity Trends - Graphs show the trends of various commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, and LME copper, as well as the ratios between gold and oil, and copper and gold [7]

1. Market Performance Overnight Stock Indices - US major stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.38% at 47560.29 points, the S&P 500 down 0.09% at 6840.51 points, and the Nasdaq up 0.13% at 23576.49 points [5] - European major stock indices also closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.45% at 24153.3 points, the French CAC40 down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.03% at 9642.01 points [6] Bond Yields - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2 - year yield up 4.80 basis points to 3.615%, the 3 - year up 4.84 basis points to 3.652%, the 5 - year up 4.73 basis points to 3.788%, the 10 - year up 2.35 basis points to 4.188%, and the 30 - year up 0.81 basis points to 4.809% [6] Commodities - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.45% at $4236.6 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 4.72% at $61.16 per ounce. Brent crude oil futures fell 0.61% to $62.11 per barrel [6] - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.47% at $2845.50 per ton, LME copper down 1.42% at $11470.00 per ton, etc. [8] 2. Important Macroeconomic News China - Premier Li Qiang emphasized China's commitment to open - cooperation, stating confidence in achieving annual economic goals, with the economy set to maintain a stable and positive trend [10] Australia - RBA Governor Bullock highlighted upside inflation risks, stating that inflation and employment data will be crucial for the February meeting. The possibility of tightening policy was discussed, and a data - driven approach will be taken for future rate decisions [10] US - ADP's weekly employment report showed that private - sector employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22 [10] 3. Futures Market News Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 5, 2025, polyethylene social sample warehouse inventory was 45.65 million tons, down 2.99 million tons from the previous period, a 6.14% decrease. Chinese polyethylene import warehouse inventory decreased by 6.59% month - on - month and 9.83% year - on - year [13] - Iraq set the official selling price of Basra Medium crude oil for North and South America in January at a $1.15 discount to the Argus sour crude price, and for Asia at a $1.05 discount to the Oman/Dubai average price [13] - EIA's short - term energy outlook report predicted US crude oil production to be 13.85 million barrels per day in December, 13.86 million in November, and 13.71 million in January [14] Metal Futures - Chongqing launched a yellow alert for heavy pollution on December 9, affecting some recycled aluminum enterprises, which have started to reduce production or shut down [17] - A polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform, Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., was established on December 9, 2025, with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan [17] Black - Series Futures - The General Administration of Market Supervision issued production license implementation rules for 24 industrial products, effective April 1, 2026 [20] - HeSteel Group's first - round inquiry price for silicon - manganese in December was 5700 yuan per ton, lower than the November price. The purchase volume was 14700 tons, also lower than in November [20] - Coking enterprises agreed to implement production cuts of at least 30% to ease supply pressure and stabilize prices, and to reduce or stop purchasing high - priced coal [20] - The Henan Bureau of National Mine Safety Supervision ordered Anyang Dazhong Coal Industry Co., Ltd. to suspend production for 1 day due to major accident hazards [21] - The China Iron and Steel Association warned that the recent rise in iron ore prices is due to capital speculation, and the high inventory and weak demand will suppress price increases [21] Agricultural Futures - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' December report on China's agricultural product supply - demand situation showed that the outlook for soybeans remained unchanged from November. High - protein soybeans in Northeast China are in short supply, while low - protein soybeans have a surplus [23] - As of December 7, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 90.3%, and the first - crop corn sowing rate was 71.3% [24] - China's imported soybean arrivals in December are expected to decline slightly. As of December 6, the average oil - mill operating rate was 57.42%, down 4.79% from the previous week [24] - Argentina reduced export taxes on soybeans, soybean by - products, wheat, barley, corn, and sorghum [25] - Brazil's expected exports of soybeans, soybean meal, and corn in December are 3.33 million tons, 1.83 million tons, and 6.3 million tons respectively, higher than previous forecasts [25] - The USDA maintained its forecast for US 2025/2026 soybean production at 4.253 billion bushels, ending stocks at 290 million bushels, and yield at 53 bushels per acre. It also kept the forecasts for Argentina and Brazil's soybean production unchanged [26] 4. Financial Market News Stock Markets - A - shares: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.37% to 3909.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.39%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.61%. Resource and Hainan - related stocks declined, while CPO concepts and some other sectors strengthened [28] - Hong Kong stocks: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.29% to 25434.23 points, with losses in sectors such as non - ferrous metals and semiconductors [28] - As of now, 1465 A - share listed companies have conducted share repurchases this year, with a total repurchase amount of 140.538 billion yuan. About 80% of these stocks have risen this year, and about 81.91% were profitable in the first three quarters [28] - Many state - owned banks have announced and implemented mid - year dividend plans, with the total cash dividend of the six major state - owned banks expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [29] - 23 listed securities firms have implemented mid - year dividends this year, with a total of 10.683 billion yuan distributed. Another 14 have announced plans to distribute 11.133 billion yuan [29] - In 2025, institutional research on the Beijing Stock Exchange increased significantly, with over 95% of companies being surveyed. YiFangDa Fund is authorized to launch an ETF tracking the HKEX Technology 100 Index [30] Overseas News - The UNCTAD reported that global trade will grow by about 7% (an increase of $2.2 trillion) in 2025, reaching a record $35 trillion [35] - The Fed is expected to cut rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut. Trump said he would support a large - scale rate cut and might adjust tariffs [35] - ADP data showed that US private employers added an average of 4750 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 22, ending four weeks of job losses. US job openings in October were 7.67 million, exceeding expectations [36] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is ready for elections and requests assistance from the US and Europe. The elections can be prepared within 60 - 90 days [37] - The Swiss government withdrew an incorrect announcement about the US tariff cut on Swiss goods. The Bank of Japan will gradually adjust monetary policy, and the RBA maintained the interest rate at 3.60% [37] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed mixed, with some large - cap stocks leading the decline. Japan's IPO financing reached the highest level since 2018, and Medline plans to raise up to $5.37 billion through an IPO [40] - SpaceX plans an IPO in mid - to - late 2026, depending on market conditions [42] Commodities - Precious metals rose, while oil prices fell due to concerns about increased US production and expected supply surplus in 2026. Base metals declined, and iron ore prices are under pressure from high inventory and weak demand [43] - EIA's report adjusted the price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil in 2025 and 2026 [44] - Russia's November crude oil production was over 100,000 barrels per day below the target, the largest gap in over two years [46] Bonds - The domestic bond market recovered, with bond yields falling and futures prices rising. US Treasury yields rose due to factors such as Fed policy expectations and inflation [47] Forex - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 20 basis points to 7.0693 at 16:30, and the US dollar index rose 0.14%. Non - US currencies mostly declined, except for the Australian dollar and the offshore RMB [48] 5. Upcoming Economic Indicators and Events Economic Indicators - Key indicators to be released include Japan's December Reuters Tankan index, China's November CPI/PPI, etc. [51] Events - Key events include the expiration of 793 billion yuan of reverse repurchases in China, speeches by central bank governors, and rate decisions by the Bank of Canada, etc. [53]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to unchanged supply - demand patterns and no significant macro - level positive news [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there may be new plastic production capacity coming online this year and the peak season for agricultural films is ending [1] 3. Grouped Summaries 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - On December 9, the operating rate of PP enterprises increased to around 84% due to the resumption of some maintenance devices, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring products rose to around 27.5% [1][4] - The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years, with the early petrochemical inventory on Tuesday increasing 0.5 tons to 69.5 tons week - on - week, 3.5 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4] - Crude oil prices dropped as some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq resumed production and the crack spread of refined oil in Europe and the US continued to decline [1] - The downstream market is at the end of the peak season, with orders for drawstring products and BOPP films decreasing, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The PP2601 futures contract decreased in an oscillatory manner with a decline of 1.18%, closing at 6192 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 11,906 lots to 411,158 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined, with drawstring products priced at 6050 - 6380 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at $745 per ton week - on - week [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 PVC2601合约减仓震荡下行，最低价4356元/吨，最高价4425元/吨，最终收盘于4367元/吨， 在20日均线下方，跌幅1.02%，持仓量减少37607手至919435手。 基差方面： 12月9日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4335元/吨，V2601合约期货收盘价在4367元/ 吨，目前基差在-32元/吨，走强5元/吨，基差处于中性偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2025年12月09日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.33个百分点至79.89%，PVC开工 率小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅下降，下游制品订单不佳。印度将关于 PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价 换量，只是中国台湾台塑12月份报价普遍下跌30-60美元/吨后出口签单回落，上周出口签单基本稳 定。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - As of the close on December 9, most domestic futures main contracts were in the red. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and many other commodities like coke, fuel oil, and SC crude oil also had significant declines. On the other hand, polysilicon rose over 3%, and some commodities such as live pigs and fiberboard had gains over 1%. Different futures varieties showed various trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market news [5][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Futures Market Overview - As of the close on December 9, domestic futures main contracts were mostly down. Industrial silicon dropped over 3%, and commodities like coke, fuel oil, SC crude oil, etc., dropped over 2%. In terms of gains, polysilicon rose over 3%, and live pigs, fiberboard, and container shipping to Europe routes rose over 1%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [5][6]. b) Market Analysis - **Shanghai Copper**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. CSPT announced a joint production cut of over 10% in 2026 due to low copper concentrate processing fees. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower year - on - year and month - on - month. In December, some smelters are under maintenance, and production is expected to increase. Downstream demand is weak, and with the approaching Fed rate - cut meeting, market sentiment is cautious [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Opened high and closed low, declining on the day. The news of Nigeria's mining suspension had little impact on the fundamentals. In November, production continued to grow, and it is expected to increase by about 3% in December. Downstream production growth has slowed, and the inventory reduction process has slowed down. It is expected to trade in a high - level range in the short term [10]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ will maintain production in 2026, and some countries will pause production increases in Q1 2026. The peak demand season is over, and US oil inventories have increased. The US is at a high - production level. Geopolitical issues in Venezuela and Libya may cause supply disruptions. The market is worried about demand, and the market is in a supply - surplus situation. It is expected to trade in a low - level range [11][12]. - **Asphalt**: Last week, the operating rate increased slightly, and December production is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries is at a low level. Crude oil prices are weak, and it is expected that asphalt futures prices will trade in a weak range [13]. - **PP**: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate was at a low level in the same period. On December 9, the enterprise operating rate increased, and the production ratio of standard products rose. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [14][15]. - **Plastic**: On December 9, the operating rate increased. As of December 5, the downstream operating rate decreased. Petrochemical inventories are at a high level. Cost and supply factors are not favorable, and downstream demand is in the off - season. It is expected to trade in a weak range, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply - side operating rate decreased slightly, and downstream demand is weak. India's policy changes have limited impact, and export orders have decreased. Social inventories are high, and it is expected to trade in a weak range [18]. - **Coking Coal**: Opened low and closed low, dropping over 2% on the day. The price of some spot products decreased. At the end of the year, imported coal impacts the domestic market. Coal production is at a high level, but some factories may reduce production. Inventories are not well - transferred, and the iron - water output decreased. The market is in a weak state [19][20]. - **Urea**: Opened low and closed low, trading weakly on the day. Spot prices are stable on the surface but decreasing in reality. The supply of gas - based plants decreased, and the cost support is weak. Downstream demand is not strong, and the inventory reduction rate will slow down. The market has some support from exports and winter storage [21].