Guan Tong Qi Huo
Search documents
每日核心期货品种分析-20251211
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 11:14
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息,来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师:王静,执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达,执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送,版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可, 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版,复制,引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 11 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 11 日收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌不一,碳酸锂、沪银 ...
下游需求增速放缓
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 11:13
【冠通期货研究报告】 下游需求增速放缓 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 11 日 【行情分析】 尿素盘面高开低走,尾盘收跌。现货价格涨跌互现,市场受期货盘面情 绪影响,略显僵持。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1630-1680 元/吨,河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看,上游装置停车与复产并 存,气头装置依旧在陆续减产停产中,日产数据依然在 19-20 万吨之间运行, 预计中下旬将有减量。由于原料端价格的上涨,复合肥成品价格同样居高,导 致终端畏高情绪。工厂走货以前期订单发运为主,本期开工负荷增速大幅下 降,环比增长 0.09%,依然同比偏低 2.97%,虽有一定的回升空间,但受制于原 料端高企的价格及终端的疲软心态,预计复产进程有限,若本周华北地区大雪 天气,可能将影响发运,拖延后续备货节奏。本期库存继续去化,环比去化 4.36%,目前的供需逻辑相对紧平衡,预计短期内库存依旧呈现去化趋势。昨日 美联储降息后,期货市场涨跌互现,对尿素影响较小,目前看来尿素驱动不 足,日产降低缓慢,而需求增量有限,预计盘面将弱势盘整。 【期现行情】 期货方面:尿素主力 2601 合约 1651 元/吨开盘, ...
PP日报:震荡运行-20251211
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 09:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products are starting to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and industry associations, held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs of disorderly price competition, which provided some support for bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remained unchanged, and there was no further macro - level positive news. The spot trading atmosphere was light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new production capacity of plastics being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and traders offer discounts to stimulate transactions. Although relevant meetings have provided some support for bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and the macro - level has no further positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 6,167 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,232 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,177 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26%. The position volume decreased by 28,910 lots to 351,293 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,010 - 6,380 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Thursday remained flat week - on - week at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $745 per ton [6]
塑料日报:震荡下行-20251211
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 09:57
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - On December 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, and the downstream operating rate was low. The petrochemical de - stocking was slow, and the cost - end crude oil price declined. With new capacity put into production, the plastic supply increased. The demand was weak as the agricultural film peak season ended. Although the government's price - related meeting gave some boost to commodities, the overall plastic supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, and it was expected that the plastic would fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread would fall [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 11, the plastic operating rate was around 90%, a neutral level. As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, with orders decreasing. The petrochemical de - stocking was slow, and the inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fell due to increased production in Iraq and falling crack spreads. New capacities were put into production, and it was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline. The trading atmosphere was weak, and the plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L - PP spread falling [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased by 0.56% to close at 6558 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with an increase of 41542 hands in open interest to 451436 hands [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot prices fell, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6500 - 6770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8170 - 8880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6800 - 7570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, with orders and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday was flat at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking was slow [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $62/barrel, and the Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene prices were flat at $725/ton and $745/ton respectively [4]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20251211
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:56
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据,冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师:王静,执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送,版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可, 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版,复制,引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发,须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期: 2025/12/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 美债收益率集体下跌,2 年期美债收益率跌 7.24 个基点报 3.538%,3 年期美 债收益率跌 6.39 个基点报 3.589%,5 年期美债收益率跌 5.59 个基点报 3.731%, 10 年期美债收益率跌 3.51 个基点报 4.149% ...
早盘速递-20251211
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-11 02:35
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut, and has cumulatively cut rates by 75 basis points this year [2] - The IMF predicts that China's economy will grow by 5.0% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to the October "World Economic Outlook" [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin ratio and daily price limit for the silver futures AG2602 contract starting from the settlement after the close on December 12, 2025. The daily price limit will be adjusted to 15%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 16%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 17% [2] - Malaysia's palm oil imports in November were 23,176 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 36.12%. The inventory was 2,835,439 tons, a month-on-month increase of 13.04%. Exports were 1,212,814 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 28.13%. Production was 1,935,510 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.30% [2] - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. was officially registered with a registered capital of 3 billion yuan, jointly held by Tongwei Co., Ltd., GCL Technology Consulting Service Co., Ltd., Daquan Energy, Xinte Energy, etc. [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include silver, rapeseed oil, pulp, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [4] Night Session Performance - The night session performance of commodity futures shows that the precious metals sector had a significant increase of 30.86%, followed by the non - ferrous metals sector with 24.53%, and the coal, coke, and steel ore sector with 11.60% [4] Plate Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, but specific data is not described in text [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.49%, a monthly increase of 1.77%, and an annual increase of 24.98%. The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.67%, a monthly increase of 0.55%, and an annual increase of 17.09% [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.06%, a monthly increase of 0.08%, and an annual decrease of 0.82% [6] - In the commodity category, the London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.50%, a monthly increase of 0.22%, and an annual increase of 61.10%. The LME copper had a daily increase of 0.63%, a monthly increase of 3.44%, and an annual increase of 31.63% [6] - Other assets such as the US dollar index had a daily decrease of 0.60%, a monthly decrease of 0.80%, and an annual decrease of 9.07% [6] Trends of Major Commodities - The chart shows the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., but specific data is not described in text [7]
沥青日报:震荡运行-20251210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly. Factors include the low asphalt production rate, reduced production volume in December, weakening demand, and the current market's cautious attitude towards winter storage contracts [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month-on-month (3.1%) and 344,000 tons year-on-year (13.8%). This week, Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of various downstream asphalt industries varied. The road asphalt operating rate remained unchanged at 29% compared with the previous week, restricted by funds and weather. After the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, subsequent demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, with overall demand being average [1] - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week and is still near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - Crude oil price: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, causing the crude oil price to fluctuate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.24% to 2,940 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,916 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 2,953 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 4,156 to 205,972 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to -13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week-on-week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate remained the same as from January to September. From January to October, the actual completed investment in fixed assets in the road transportation industry decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, a slight decline from -2.7% from January to September. From January to October, the completed investment in fixed assets in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, continuing to decline from 1.1% from January to September [4] - Social financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4] - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28, and is near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]
等待降息兑现
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:23
Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. Group 2: Report's Core View - The current market for Shanghai copper is in a downstream off - season, and the macro - market sentiment influences the price fluctuations. The Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut meeting has created uncertainty in the market's expectations for next year's rate cuts. After the rate cut is implemented, the market is expected to return to fundamental factors. Although the refined - scrap copper price difference is favorable, the lack of improvement in terminal consumption means this advantage is not obvious. With the continuous increase in copper prices, downstream demand is weak, and production is cautious. There are also factors such as smelter maintenance and changes in inventory levels affecting the market [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On December 10, 2025, Shanghai copper opened lower and trended lower, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, down 2.62% month - on - month and 12.46% year - on - year. Four smelters are expected to undergo maintenance in December, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's production data. December's production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. After the continuous rise in prices, downstream demand is insufficient. Copper tube enterprises are cautious due to rising copper prices, and their production increase is limited. The production of copper strips in Steel Union's sample enterprises is 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm has slowed down, and enterprises are cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with poor overall sales and inventory accumulation [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and trended lower, with weak intraday fluctuations. Spot: On December 10, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 40 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 65 yuan/ton. On December 9, 2025, the LME official price was 11,545 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 18.5 US dollars/ton [4]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of December 8, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.38 US cents/pound [6]. 4. Fundamental Tracking (Inventory) - SHFE copper inventory was 2.89 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. As of December 8, Shanghai Free - Trade Zone copper inventory was 9.99 tons, an increase of 0.50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 16.50 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 44.30 short tons, an increase of 3,537 short tons from the previous period [9].
每日核心期货品种分析-20251210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:22
Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: December 10, 2025 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department, and various industry information providers 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View As of the close on December 10, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like silver and container shipping to Europe had significant increases, while others such as alumina and soda ash declined. The performance of each commodity was affected by factors including supply - demand relationships, production conditions, geopolitical situations, and macro - economic expectations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Commodity Performance - Gainers: Shanghai silver rose over 5%, container shipping to Europe rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, iron ore, soybeans, polysilicon, and soybeans No. 2 rose nearly 2% [6] - Losers: Alumina fell over 3%, soda ash, glass, industrial silicon, and styrene fell over 2%, log, pure benzene, PVC, palm oil, coking coal, SC crude oil, staple fiber, polypropylene, and propylene fell over 1% [7] - Stock Index Futures: CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.15%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.35%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract rose 0.39%, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract rose 0.26% [7] - Bond Futures: 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) main contract rose 0.04%, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) main contract rose 0.06%, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) main contract rose 0.06%, 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) main contract rose 0.30% [7] 3.2 Market Analysis by Commodity 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Market Trend: Opened low and moved lower, with weak intraday fluctuations - Production: In November, the production rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than expected but lower than the previous month and the same period last year. In December, 4 smelters are expected to have maintenance, and production is expected to increase due to previous restarts [9] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, and the production of copper plate and strip and copper rod is affected by cost and order issues [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: Opened low and moved high, rising nearly 3% intraday - Production: In November, production continued to grow, and in December, it is expected to increase by about 3%. The capacity utilization rate this week is 75.34%, significantly higher year - on - year [10][11] - Demand: Downstream production continues to grow but at a slower pace, and the impact of energy storage demand needs further verification [11] - Inventory: In November, the inventory decreased slightly after 5 consecutive months of decline [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + will maintain production in 2026, and 8 additional voluntary - cut countries will suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US production is at a high level, and global floating storage is increasing. Some oil fields have resumed production [12] - Demand: The peak demand season is over, and US refined product inventories have increased more than expected [12] - Geopolitics: The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to reach in the near term, and the US - Venezuela military confrontation has intensified [12] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9%. In December, the planned output is 215.8 million tons, a decrease of 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year [15] - Demand: Downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and overall demand is average [15] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [15] 3.2.5 PP - Supply: As of December 5, the downstream operating rate rose 0.10 percentage points to 53.93%. The enterprise operating rate is about 84%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn wire has decreased. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance devices have decreased slightly [16][17] - Demand: Downstream demand is at the end of the peak season, orders have decreased, and the market lacks large - scale purchases [16][17] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - Supply: The operating rate is about 90%. New capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has increased slightly. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level [18] - Demand: The downstream operating rate has decreased, and the peak season of agricultural film is coming to an end. Orders have continued to decline, and downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand [18] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [18] 3.2.7 PVC - Supply: The operating rate has decreased slightly to 79.89%, and new capacity has been put into operation. Social inventories are still high [19][20] - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage [20] - Price Outlook: Expected to be weak and volatile [20] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Market Trend: Opened high and moved high but fell more than 1% intraday - Supply: Near the end of the year, imported coal has increased, and the production rate of coal mines has decreased slightly. Some factories may reduce production after completing their annual tasks [21] - Demand: Iron water production has decreased, and coking and steel mills are in the off - season. The demand for coking coal is expected to continue to decline [21] - Inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills has decreased, while the inventory of mines has increased significantly [21] - Price Outlook: The fundamentals are weak, but short - term demand may increase due to restocking [21] 3.2.9 Urea - Market Trend: Opened high and moved low, then strengthened intraday - Supply: Upstream devices have both shutdowns and restarts, and the daily production has not decreased significantly [23] - Demand: Downstream winter storage and export orders are stable. The new orders of compound fertilizer factories are not good, and the operating rate is approaching the high - point of the same period in recent years [23] - Inventory: The inventory has continued to decline, and the current supply - demand logic is relatively balanced [23] - Price Outlook: Short - term strength, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's interest - rate decision on commodities [23]
PP日报:震荡下行-20251210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 11:17
【期现行情】 期货方面: PP2601合约减仓震荡下行,最低价6161元/吨,最高价6220元/吨,最终收盘于6162元/吨, 在20日均线下方,跌幅1.14%。持仓量减少30955手至380203手。 【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报:震荡下行 发布日期:2025年12月10日 【行情分析】 截至12月5日当周,PP下游开工率环比上涨0.10个百分点至53.93%,处于历年同期偏低水平。但 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于44.1%,塑编订单环比小幅下降,略低于去年同期。12月10 日,检修装置变动不大,PP企业开工率维持在84%左右,处于中性偏低水平,标品拉丝生产比例下跌 至25.5%左右。月初石化累库较多,目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端,伊拉克部分前期 故障油田恢复生产,叠加欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌,原油价格下跌。供应上,新增产能40万吨/ 年的中石油广西石化10月中旬投产,近期检修装置略有减少。下游进入旺季尾声,塑编等订单开始 下降,BOPP膜价格下跌后暂稳,市场缺乏大规模集中采购,对行情提振有限,贸易商普遍让利以刺 激成交。国家发展改革委会同有关部门及相关行业协会召开会议,研究制定价格 ...