碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2507 合约跌 2.27%至 61180 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均跌 800 元/吨 至 63700 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价跌 800 元/吨至 62050 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下跌 200 元/吨至 65490 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（微粉）下跌 200 元/吨至 70635 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日 仓单库存增加 60 吨至 36684 吨。 2. 价格方面，锂矿端报价亦在下降，根据中联金澳洲锂辉石 5.5-6%最低价 645CIF 美元/吨。供应端， 周度产量环比增加 575 吨至 16055 吨，5 月总供应量较预期下调；需求端，5 月三元+磷酸铁锂消耗 碳酸锂量预计环比小幅增加；电芯端依旧保持景气。库存端，周度库存重回累库，周度环比增加 351 吨至 131920 吨，其中下游和其他环节去库，冶炼厂累库。 3. 当前市场矛盾实际仍应关注供应，锂矿价格延续下跌和供应减量仍然较低，导致市场仍较为悲观， 但需 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一尿素期货价格弱势波动，主力09合约收盘价1847元/吨，跌幅1.6%。现货市场弱 势下调，主流地区价格下调幅度10~30元/吨不等。目前山东临沂地区市场价格1900 | | | | 元/吨，河南地区市场价格1910元/吨，二者分别较上一交易日下降30元/吨、10元/ | | | | 吨。基本面来看，尿素供应再度提升，昨日日产量回升至20.55万吨，日环比增0.27 | | | 尿素 | 万吨。需求端暂无明显亮点，复合肥行业对原料尿素刚需跟进，农业需求预计在后 | 偏弱震荡 | | | 半周之后逐步释放。现货成交氛围偏弱，昨日主流地区产销率低位徘徊。尿素出口 | | | | 配额落地后，消息面对市场影响力度逐渐减弱，后期市场将回归国内供需主导。短 | | | | 期尿素供应高位波动，需求谨慎跟进，现货价格上方空间明显受限。期货市场暂无 | | | | 新增驱动因素的情况下，预计日内维持偏弱震荡趋势。 | | | 纯碱 | 周一纯碱期货价格弱势震荡，主力09 ...

1. Index Trends - On May 19th, the Shanghai Composite Index had a change of 0.0%, closing at 3367.58 points with a trading volume of 437.178 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index changed by -0.08%, closing at 10171.09 points with a trading volume of 649.27 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose by 0.45% with a trading volume of 214.013 billion yuan, opening at 6073.2, closing at 6095.34, with a daily high of 6100.8 and a low of 6009.95 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index increased by 0.09% with a trading volume of 141.099 billion yuan, opening at 5719.44, closing at 5720.79, with a daily high of 5729.07 and a low of 5669.72 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.43% with a trading volume of 51.69 billion yuan, opening at 2710.32, closing at 2705.09, with a daily high of 2716.86 and a low of 2701.25 [1]. - The CSI 300 Index declined by 0.31% with a trading volume of 184.888 billion yuan, opening at 3882.57, closing at 3877.15, with a daily high of 3885.59 and a low of 3866.57 [1]. 2. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 rose 27.22 points from the previous close, with sectors such as transportation, national defense and military industry, and electronics significantly pulling the index up [2]. - The CSI 500 rose 4.94 points from the previous close. Sectors like national defense and military industry, food and beverage, and public utilities pulled the index up, while non - ferrous metals, computer, and pharmaceutical biology pulled it down [2]. - The CSI 300 dropped 11.94 points from the previous close. Public utilities pulled the index up, while sectors such as automobiles, banks, and food and beverage pulled it down [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 11.57 points from the previous close. Public utilities pulled the index up, while banks and food and beverage pulled it down [2]. 3. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of -133.37, IM01 of -219.12, IM02 of -354.04, and IM03 of -512.6 [12]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of -111.32, IC01 of -183.82, IC02 of -291.63, and IC03 of -415.42 [12]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of -40.83, IF01 of -78.35, IF02 of -109.23, and IF03 of -150.81 [12]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of -20.54, IH01 of -48.83, IH02 of -55.22, and IH03 of -58.25 [12]. 4. Futures Roll - over Point Differences and Annualized Costs - For IM contracts, there were data on roll - over point differences and their annualized costs at different 15 - minute intervals, such as at 09:45, IM00 - 01 was -53.1193, IM00 - 02 was -158.791, etc. [21]. - For IC contracts, at 09:45, IC00 - 01 was -26.1467, IC00 - 02 was -90.0318, etc., with corresponding 15 - minute interval data [22]. - For IF contracts, at 09:45, IF00 - 01 was -5.99267, IF00 - 02 was -13.4098, etc., with 15 - minute interval data [22]. - For IH contracts, at 09:45, IH00 - 01 was -1.29644, IH00 - 02 was 1.559889, etc., with 15 - minute interval data [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All varieties (corn, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs) are rated as "Sideways" [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Corn**: The sentiment in the corn market has changed, with the selling price loosening. The futures and spot markets are adjusting. The futures price is under pressure due to concerns about imported corn auctions. Technically, it is in a high - level sideways pattern, and short - term attention should be paid to the support of the long - term moving average of the July contract [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans rose in technical trading, but weather in the US Midwest and policy uncertainty regarding biofuels limited the upside. In Argentina, some soybean losses may occur due to storms. In China, the protein meal market declined, and the spot price of soybean meal dropped, dragging down both near - and far - month contracts. The oil mills' high expected soybean crushing volume and slow downstream procurement led to a rapid decline in the spot price. It is recommended to hold a long - short spread strategy for the 9 - 1 contract [1]. - **Oils**: BMD palm oil rose, ending a two - day decline, supported by the strength of soybean oil. High - frequency data showed an 8.5% increase in Malaysian palm oil production from May 1 - 15. The 6 - month tariff was reduced from 10% to 9.5%. In China, rapeseed oil led the rise, and soybean oil and palm oil also moved up. The supply of oils has increased since May, but demand is weak, and the basis is expected to decline. The trading strategy is intraday trading [1]. - **Eggs**: The egg futures contracts showed a downward trend. The spot price decreased. The Dragon Boat Festival demand will support the short - term egg price, but the upcoming rainy season and increasing supply may lead to a weak egg price in the future. Attention should be paid to the changes in feed raw material prices and farmers' culling intentions [1][2]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures showed a pattern of near - term strength and far - term weakness. The September contract is at a discount to the spot price. The feed cost is expected to decline, putting pressure on the hog price. Technically, short - term attention should be paid to the support at 13,500 yuan for the September contract, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to enter the market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The US has adjusted the wording of the guide's press release, but the discriminatory measures and market - distorting nature of the guide remain unchanged. China firmly opposes the US's abuse of export control measures against Chinese chip products [3]. - A US private exporter reported selling 145,000 tons of soybean meal to the Philippines for delivery in the 2024/2025 season [3]. - As of May 19, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.49403 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 275,050 tons [3]. - As of the week ending May 15, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 217,842 tons, down from the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume for this crop year (starting from September 1) was 44.131939 million tons, higher than the same period last year [3][4]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for June to the level corresponding to a 9.5% export tariff, from 4,449.35 ringgit per ton in May to 3,926.59 ringgit per ton [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and contract basis for different agricultural products, including corn, soybean, soybean meal, oils, eggs, and hogs, such as the 9 - 1 spreads and basis of these products [5][6][8][9][12][14][15][18][20][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. With the Fed likely not to cut rates before September, China's April economic data showing mixed signals, and inventory changes, the market's risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger. There are also concerns about a potential squeeze on short positions [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina is expected to remain strong in the near - term due to news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness expected. Attention should be paid to Yunnan's power policies, inventory trends, and international trade frictions [1][2]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Although nickel ore prices are firm, the cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight LME copper rose 0.81% to $9,516/ton, SHFE copper rose 0.54% to 78,160 yuan/ton. The US is taking a more aggressive stance in trade negotiations, and the Fed may not cut rates before September. China's April consumption slightly exceeded expectations, but fixed - asset investment growth was low, and the real estate market showed signs of a decline. LME copper inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, Comex warehouse receipts increased by 650 tons, and domestic social inventory increased by 0.72 tons. As copper prices rise, downstream demand may slow. The market is also concerned about a potential squeeze on short positions, so copper prices are expected to remain volatile and slightly stronger [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina closed at 3,128 yuan/ton, up 1.23%, and positions increased. Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,040 yuan/ton, down 0.62%, and positions decreased. Spot alumina prices rebounded slightly, and the premium on aluminum ingots widened. The news of Guinea's mining rights and domestic production cuts may drive alumina prices higher in the near - term. Electrolytic aluminum shows a divergence between strong current conditions and future expectations, with low inventory currently but potential weakening demand and cost reduction in the future. The price is expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel fell 0.67% to $15,500/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.31% to 123,520 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The cost support for stainless steel has weakened, and the demand in the new energy industry chain is also weak. Nickel prices are expected to remain range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Philippine government's mining ban policy in June [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: From May 16 to May 19, the price of flat - water copper decreased by 720 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 5,050 tons, and Comex inventory increased by 999 tons. The import loss of the active contract increased by 570 yuan/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 30 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons, and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 5,968 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased slightly. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened by 20 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 13,585 tons. The social inventory of alumina decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,175 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 6,786 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 30 tons. The price of nickel sulfate decreased by 300 yuan/ton [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.3%. LME inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.15 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%. LME inventory increased by 5 tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 302 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][8][9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][16][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44][46].

光大期货金融期货日报 光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 05 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场涨跌互现，Wind 全 A 上涨 0.17%，成交额 1.12 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数上涨 0.45%，中证 500 指数上涨 0.09%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.31%， | | | | 上证 50 指数下跌 0.43%。4 月经济数据整体较 3 月有一定程度下滑，但仍在 | | | | 关税战背景下保持韧性。其中社零同比 5.1%，继续受到"以旧换新"政策的 | | | | 明显支撑。4 月社会信贷需求偏弱，4 月累计新增人民币贷款 10.06 万亿元， | | | | 同比多增 2.86%；4 月 M2 同比 8%。此前中美发布联合声明，为后续进一步 | | | | 贸易协商奠定良好开局，超过市场预期。近期三部门召开联合新闻发布会， | | | 股指 | 央行宣布降准降息政策，降低企业负债端成本。金融监管总局强调将大力推 | 震荡 | | | 动中长期资金入市，通过类平准基金的方式支持、 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价先跌后反弹，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘上涨 0.2 美元至 | | | | 62.69 美元/桶，涨幅 0.32%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘上涨 0.13 美元 | | | | 至 65.54 美元/桶，涨幅 0.2%。SC2507 以 465.4 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 4 元/桶，涨幅 0.87%。特朗普周一与俄罗斯总统普京通话后表示， | | | | 俄乌将"立即"开始就结束冲突进行谈判。克里姆林宫表示，两 | | | | 人并没有讨论俄方与乌克兰停火的潜在时间表。伊朗计划在 | | | | Kharg Island 出口码头增加了 200 万桶的原油储存能力，自 5 月 17 | | | 原油 | 日起生效。美伊核谈判的不确定性加剧市场波动。G7 于 2022 年 | 震荡 | | | 12 月达成价上限机制，禁止油轮运输交易价格高于每桶 60 美元 | | | | 的俄罗斯原油，并禁止相关实体为俄石油运输提供保 ...

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated May 19, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contracts, basis, and variety spreads [1] Futures Contracts - For I05, the closing price is 793.5 yuan/ton, down 8.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 is 728.0 yuan/ton, down 8.5 yuan; I01 is 691.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan [3] - The I05 - I09 spread is 65.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan; I09 - I01 is 36.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan; I01 - I05 is -102.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan [3] Basis Data - Various iron ore varieties show price changes. For example, the price of Carajás fines (Carol) is 858 yuan/ton, down 7.0 yuan, with a basis of 86 yuan, up 1 yuan [6] - Other varieties like BRBF, Newman fines, and PB fines also have corresponding price and basis changes [6] Charts - There are multiple charts showing the basis of different iron ore types such as Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc., from August 2024 to April 2025 [8][9][10] Variety Spreads Data - PB block - PB fines spread is 148.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan; PB fines - mixed fines is 85.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan [13] - There are also spreads between other varieties like Newman block - Newman fines, Carajás fines - Newman fines, etc., with corresponding changes [13] Charts - Multiple charts illustrate different variety spreads, including block - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, etc [15][18][20] Exchange Rules Adjustment - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has adjusted the deliverable brands and related rules for iron ore futures contracts. New deliverable brands are added, and brand premiums and discounts are adjusted [11] - The adjusted rules apply to I2312 and subsequent contracts, and the exchange will handle standard warehouse receipt registration according to the new rules starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of the I2311 contract [12] Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and relevant qualifications in the industry [25]

股指期货日度数据跟踪 2025-05-16 一、指数走势 05 月 15 日，上证综指涨跌幅-0.68%，收于 3380.82 点，成交额 4612.92 亿元，深成指数涨跌幅-1.62%，收于 10186.45 点，成交额 6911.02 亿元。 中证 1000 指数涨跌幅-1.68%，成交额 2249.08 亿元，其中开盘价 6146.0，收盘价 6057.04，当日最高价 6146.0，最低价 6055.84； 中证 500 指数涨跌幅-1.45%，成交额 1651.37 亿元，其中开盘价 5786.78，收盘价 5715.3，当日最高价 5786.78，最低价 5715.29； 沪深 300 指数涨跌幅-0.91%，成交额 2414.65 亿元，其中开盘价 3934.03，收盘价 3907.2，当日最高价 3936.47，最低价 3904.91； 上证 50 指数涨跌幅-0.49%，成交额 692.36 亿元，其中开盘价 2748.54，收盘价 2740.3，当日最高价 2758.08，最低价 2735.9。 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 数据来源：Wind，光期研究所 二、板块涨跌对指数影响 中证 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，盘中波幅略有提升。主力09合约收盘价1892元/吨， 涨幅0.85%。现货市场高位回落，主流地区价格回落10～20元/吨，山东地区市场价 | | | | 格1950元/吨，日环比跌10元/吨。基本面来看，昨日尿素日产量20.32万吨，日环比 | | | | 涨0.1万吨。需求持续推进，昨日主流地区产销率多数在50%～80%区间，整体产销 | | | 尿素 | 率62%，日环比明显提升。在出口细则明朗之前产业心态仍较为谨慎，厂家也有意 | 高位震荡 | | | 控制接单，但在需求跟进环境中企业延续去库状态，支撑市场心态。出口细则尘埃 | | | | 落定后尿素市场也仍有分 ，短期消息面和国内需求的博弈继续维持，期货盘面仍 | | | | 将高位盘整且波幅提升。关注出口动态、市场情绪变化。 | | | | 周四纯碱期货价格宽幅波动，09 合约收盘价 1330 元/吨，微幅上涨 0.83%，夜盘走势 略有回落。现货 ...