Group 1: Research Views - On November 11, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 9,180 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.54%. The open interest decreased by 10,544 lots to 271,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,692 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 230 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2601 closed at 51,930 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.5%. The open interest increased by 12,494 lots to 138,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon feedstock was 52,000 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock was also 52,000 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Silicon plants in the southwest region significantly reduced production. However, due to the synchronous production cuts in the downstream, the inventory reduction rhythm was not achieved. Silicon plants prematurely supported prices and held stocks, and the futures market priced in the production cut expectations in advance, limiting the upward price repair space [2]. - In November, the production schedules of polysilicon feedstock and downstream silicon wafers both declined. The planned production cut scale of silicon feedstock exceeded that of the downstream, but under the strict quota limit of silicon wafers, the production cut rhythm was ahead of the upstream. As the impact of the polysilicon production capacity platform news faded, the short - term weak reality led the futures market to enter a low - level consolidation stage. Due to the reconvening of the industry conference and the active dynamics of the production capacity platform, there was a positive effect from the news side for polysilicon, so it was not advisable to overly short the market [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 9,290 yuan/ton on November 10 to 9,180 yuan/ton on November 11, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton. The price of the near - month contract decreased from 9,305 yuan/ton to 9,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and regions remained unchanged, and the spot discount narrowed from 355 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [3]. - The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 176 tons to 46,079 tons on a daily basis. The weekly inventory at GFE decreased by 5,365 tons to 230,900 tons, and the weekly inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 55,000 tons. The weekly factory inventory decreased by 3,700 tons to 264,700 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 4,700 tons to 447,700 tons [3]. Polysilicon - The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 53,720 yuan/ton on November 10 to 51,930 yuan/ton on November 11, a decrease of 1,790 yuan/ton. The price of the near - month contract decreased from 50,935 yuan/ton to 50,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, and the spot premium widened from 1,065 yuan/ton to 1,100 yuan/ton [3]. - The weekly inventory at GFE increased by 0.8 tons to 29.55 tons, the weekly factory inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 27.69 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 27.7 tons [3]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,000 yuan/ton. The price of raw rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton to 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton, while the price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 11,800 yuan/ton [3]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules [14][16][18]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [22][23][25]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [28][30][35]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of SHFE, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily & Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. He is often interviewed by multiple media. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily & Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of SHFE in 2016 [37]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [37]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [38].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Upward [1] - Soybean Meal: Sideways [1] - Oils and Fats: Sideways [1] - Eggs: Sideways [1] - Pigs: Sideways [2] Core Views - Corn prices are rising due to port price increases and policy expectations, but there is a game between production areas and ports, and downstream feed enterprises are cautious [1] - Soybean meal is in a sideways trend, with the market waiting for the USDA supply - demand report, and domestic supply is sufficient [1] - Oils and fats are in a sideways trend, affected by weather, export data, and macro - sentiment, with high but decreasing inventory pressure [1] - Eggs are in a sideways trend, with short - term wide - range fluctuations expected, and future production capacity changes should be monitored [1] - Pig prices show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, with short - term fluctuations and long - term expectations affected by production capacity reduction policies [2] Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: On Tuesday, corn futures and spot prices rose in tandem. The main 2601 contract increased in price with reduced positions. North port prices are strong, but there is selling pressure in production areas. Downstream feed enterprises are cautious. Technically, the contract has a technical upward breakthrough, and short - term long positions are recommended [1] - **Soybean Meal**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell. Analysts predict US soybean production, yield, and inventory for 2025/26. The domestic market is in a sideways - up trend, with sufficient supply. The strategy is futures long positions + selling out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Oils and Fats**: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil rose, but its increase was limited by weather concerns and weak export data. Domestic oils and fats are in a sideways trend, supported by macro - sentiment. Inventory pressure is decreasing, and short - term long positions are recommended [1] - **Eggs**: On Tuesday, the main 2512 contract of eggs continued a slight correction. Spot prices are mostly stable. Future production capacity is expected to decline slowly, and short - term wide - range fluctuations are expected. Pay attention to production capacity changes for trading strategies [1] - **Pigs**: On Tuesday, near - term pig futures were weak, and long - term futures were strong. Spot prices rebounded. The 2609 contract is expected to be in a sideways - up trend due to the planned reduction of November pig slaughter [2] Market Information - Indonesia's biodiesel consumption using palm - oil - based FAME has reached 12.25 million kiloliters as of November 10, and the government has allocated 15.6 million kiloliters for 2025 [2] - On November 11, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased slightly, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index increased slightly. The national average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.1% [3] - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown, and it will be voted on in the House of Representatives [3] - Analysts predict that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.266 billion bushels [1][3] Variety Spreads - The report presents various contract spreads and basis charts for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but no specific analysis of these spreads is provided [4][5][6][9][11][13][14][17][18][23] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with many honors and media exposure [27] - Hou Xueling is a soybean analyst at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many awards [27] - Kong Hailan is a researcher on eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures, with team honors and media interviews [27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea futures prices trended weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,640 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.26%. The spot market was mostly stable, with individual regional prices fluctuating slightly. The industry's daily output remained stable at 195,100 tons. Demand was weak, and the market was in a policy and news vacuum before the Indian tender results were announced. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range, and the recommended view is wide - range oscillation [1]. - Soda ash futures prices oscillated weakly on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,215 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 0.33%. The spot market quotations were mostly stable, with the ex - factory price in the northwest region decreasing by 20 yuan/ton. Multiple enterprises reduced production or operated at reduced loads, and the industry's operating rate dropped to 84.07%. The cost support strengthened, but due to excessive fundamental pressure, the market lacked a driving force for a trending upward movement. It is recommended to approach it with a wide - range oscillation mindset [1]. - Glass futures prices continued to be weak on Tuesday, with the main 01 contract closing at 1,053 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.86%. The spot market trend remained weak. Glass supply was stable, and the demand sentiment did not decline further. The industry was pessimistic about high inventories and future demand. The market is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term [1]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Research Views - **Urea**: Futures prices were weak, spot was mostly stable, production was stable, demand was weak, and the market was in a vacuum period. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range, and attention should be paid to spot transactions, export dynamics, and Indian tender results [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Futures prices oscillated weakly, spot was mostly stable with a decrease in the northwest, production decreased, cost support strengthened, but the upward driving force was lacking. It is recommended to use a wide - range oscillation approach, and pay attention to raw material and freight costs, downstream production capacity changes, and purchasing power [1]. - **Glass**: Futures prices were weak, spot was also weak, supply was stable, demand sentiment did not decline further, but the industry was pessimistic. It is expected to oscillate weakly at the bottom, and attention should be paid to capital flows, spot transactions, coal prices, year - end rush - work demand, macro - sentiment, and policies [1]. Market Information - **Urea**: On November 11, the futures warehouse receipts increased by 397 to 6,812, with 586 valid forecasts. The daily output was 195,100 tons, unchanged from the previous day and an increase of 14,900 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, a 3.68 - percentage - point increase compared to the same period last year. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly [4]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: On November 11, soda ash futures warehouse receipts decreased by 368 to 6,999, with 1,304 valid forecasts; glass futures warehouse receipts increased by 285 to 546. Soda ash spot prices in the northwest region decreased. The soda ash industry's daily operating rate dropped to 84.07%. The average price of the float glass market decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1,149 yuan/ton, and the daily output remained unchanged at 159,100 tons [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those showing the closing prices, basis, trading volume, and positions of urea and soda ash futures, as well as the price spreads between different contracts and the price spreads between different products. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [9][11][18][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices showed a narrow - range overnight oscillation, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The weak ADP employment data in the US boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market was still cautious, and copper might be short - term optimistic but overall in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory [1]. - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed an oscillatingly stronger trend overnight. Alumina factory profits were continuously compressed, with sporadic production cuts in loss - making capacities. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, with a short - term high - level adjustment rhythm. Attention should be paid to the potential for the market to recover during the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions [1][2]. - Nickel prices declined overnight. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and overseas copper prices oscillated narrowly. The US ADP employment data in October showed a decrease of 45,000 in private - sector employment, the largest decline in two and a half years. This boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 341,677 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 10,135 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME was soliciting opinions on new permanent rules. Short - term copper might be optimistic, but overall it would likely oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended oscillatingly stronger. AO2601 closed at 2,826 yuan/ton with a 0.01% increase, AL2512 closed at 21,740 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and AD2512 closed at 21,135 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Alumina factory profits were compressed, with sporadic production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, and the short - term would continue the high - level adjustment rhythm. Aluminum alloy followed the adjustment, and attention should be paid to the long - AD space after the spread narrowed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.5% to $15,025 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.25% to 119,150 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan from the previous day. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 136,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2,663 tons to 337,749 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 29.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 574 tons to 23,769 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 2,583 tons to 38,582 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 11, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Nanhai price was 21,490 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 547,225 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 62.7 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 3.2 million tons to 16.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 253,404 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 436 tons to 37,187 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price increased, and the inventory at SHFE increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 287,410 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The spot price increased, and the SHFE inventory increased by 73 tons to 5,992 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 were presented, showing the historical trends of these premiums [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 were provided, demonstrating the historical trends of these spreads [16][19][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were shown, indicating the historical inventory trends [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were displayed, presenting the historical inventory trends [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel social inventories were presented, with time - span data from 2019 - 2025 for some and 2020 - 2025 for others, showing the historical social - inventory trends [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate were provided, with data from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these smelting - related indicators [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a top industrial - futures analyst in the futures and securities fields. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [51]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He provides timely market and policy interpretations and has written many in - depth reports [51]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides timely market and policy interpretations [52].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On November 11, the lithium carbonate futures 2601 contract rose 1.38% to 86,540 yuan/ton. Spot prices also increased, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rising 1,550 yuan/ton to 82,300 yuan/ton, and industrial-grade lithium carbonate rising 1,550 yuan/ton to 80,100 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 608 tons to 28,099 tons [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly production increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons. In November, the expected production of lithium carbonate is expected to decline by 0.2% to 92,080 tons. On the demand side, the production of ternary materials in November increased by 1% to 85,000 tons, and the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4% to 410,000 tons. The weekly inventory decreased by 3,406 tons to 123,953 tons [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, demand in November continued to increase month-on-month, and social inventory has been decreasing for 12 consecutive weeks. However, there are significant differences in news factors, and the rhythm of project resumption is unknown. Short-term market sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to actual project resumption time and the first-quarter off - season in the power sector [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract was 86,540 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the closing price of the continuous contract was 84,620 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. Lithium ore prices generally increased, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose by 2,000 yuan/ton to 122,000 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 2,200 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1,250 yuan/ton to -6,370 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [8][9]. - **3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [10][11][12]. - **3.3 Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [17][18]. - **3.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [24][25][26]. - **3.5 Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [32][33][34]. - **3.6 Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from March to November 2025 [36][37][38]. - **3.7 Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [40][41].

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 737.0 | 742.0 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 717.0 | 722.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -43.0 | -3.0 | | I01 | 763.0 | 765.0 | -2.0 | I01-I05 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] Group 2: Core Views - Steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with cost support weakening, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Iron ore shows an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term due to factors such as changes in supply, demand, and inventory [1] - Coking coal supply is tight, and the downstream has different procurement attitudes, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Coke supply is affected by cost, and demand is influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese silicon has a complex fundamental situation with multiple factors intertwined, and the overall is in an oscillating pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon's current fundamental support is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate with the black market in the short - term [3] Group 3: Summary by Sections Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price decreased, the spot price dropped slightly, and the demand entered the off - season. The steel mills' losses expanded, and the cost support weakened, so the short - term disk is expected to oscillate weakly [1] - **Iron ore**: The futures price oscillated, the supply from Australia and Brazil decreased, the demand (iron - water output) declined, and the inventory increased, resulting in an oscillating weakly trend in the short - term [1] - **Coking coal**: The futures price fell, the supply was tight, the downstream procurement attitudes varied, and the short - term disk is expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Coke**: The futures price declined, the supply was affected by cost, and the demand was influenced by steel mills' production, with the short - term disk expected to oscillate widely [1] - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production decreased slightly, the demand (steel recruitment) declined, the cost was stable with electricity price adjustment expected, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is in an oscillating pattern [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price oscillated weakly, the production cost increased significantly, the supply was relatively stable, the demand (steel recruitment) decreased, and the inventory reached a new high, so it is expected to fluctuate with the black market [3] Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different contracts of various varieties have different spread values and changes, such as the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar being - 64.0 with a - 6.0 change [4] - **Basis**: The basis values and their changes of different contracts of various varieties are presented, for example, the 01 contract basis of rebar is 165.0 with a 19.0 change [4] - **Spot prices**: The latest spot prices and their changes of various varieties in different regions are given, like the Shanghai rebar spot price is 3190.0 with no change [4] - **Profits and spreads**: Information on profits (such as rebar's disk profit) and cross - variety spreads (such as the coil - rebar spread) is provided, for example, the rebar disk profit is - 119.5 with a 13.6 change [4] Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract prices**: Graphs show the closing prices of main contracts of various varieties over the years, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][10] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: Graphs display the basis of main contracts of various varieties over different months, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [17][18][21] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spreads**: Graphs present the spreads of inter - period contracts of various varieties, like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [26][28][32] - **3.4 Cross - variety contract spreads**: Graphs show the cross - variety spreads of main contracts, including the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. [43][45][47] - **3.5 Rebar profits**: Graphs display the profits of rebar's main contracts, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, with multiple industry honors [54] - Zhang Xiaojin has rich experience in resource - product research and many industry honors [54] - Liu Xi is good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54] - Zhang Chunjie is good at investment trading strategies and combining financial theory with industrial operations [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall energy - chemical market shows a volatile trend. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to run in a volatile manner, with different influencing factors for each variety [1][3][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices rebounded. WTI December contract rose $0.91 to $61.04 per barrel, a 1.51% increase; Brent January contract rose $1.1 to $65.16 per barrel, a 1.72% increase; SC2512 closed at 468.9 yuan per barrel, up 9.7 yuan or 2.11%. US crude inventory is expected to increase, while gasoline and distillate inventories are expected to decline. Asian gasoline refining profit reached the highest level since January 2024. The market shows certain linkages, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The Asian low - sulfur market faces supply and demand problems, but the East - West arbitrage window is basically closed. The Asian high - sulfur market is supported by stable demand but has sufficient supply. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to continue to reverse [1]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. The market has abundant resources but weak demand, and the spot price has reached a nearly three - year low. Although the production in November has decreased, the short - term supply still faces pressure. The price of asphalt is treated with a bearish view [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 and EG2601 closed down. PX&TA futures prices rebounded, and the processing margin on the disk narrowed. The supply side has maintenance plans, and the downstream polyester maintains a high operating rate. It is expected that PX&TA will follow the cost side to fluctuate in the short term. The supply pressure of ethylene glycol remains, and the price is expected to be under pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The rubber production is seasonally increasing, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream demand is weak overseas, and the EU's investigations have increased export concerns. It is expected that rubber prices will fluctuate [5]. - **Methanol**: The supply in the domestic market has recovered to a high level, and Iranian devices may stop production from late November to December. It is expected that methanol will maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [5]. - **Polyolefins**: The short - term production will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken marginally after the e - commerce activities. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile and weak stage [7]. - **PVC**: The supply maintains a high - level oscillation, the domestic demand slows down, and exports are affected by India's anti - dumping policy. It is expected that PVC prices will tend to oscillate at the bottom [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of energy - chemical varieties on November 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [10]. 3.3 Market News - Last week, US crude inventory was expected to increase, and gasoline and distillate inventories were expected to decline. As of the week of November 7, US crude inventory was expected to increase by about 1.2 million barrels [12]. - Although the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Russian oil shipments remained stable in early November and are expected to decline from the end of November [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report provides price trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][19][22][25][27][30][31]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [32][38][39][42][43][44]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It presents the spread trend charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [48][50][53][56][59][61]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It provides the spread and ratio trend charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [63][65]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trend charts of LLDPE and PP [71]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts such as Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and achievements in different energy - chemical fields [76][77][78][79].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Oscillating" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Relatively Strong" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders is conducive to the improvement of China's total demand and the valuation of A - share technology stocks. The content of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China boosts market confidence, and the structured market is expected to continue. However, one should be cautious about chasing high in the current market. The market may refocus on fundamentals after the release of the third - quarter reports. A - share non - financial third - quarter reports show positive revenue and profit growth, but ROE remains in a low - level oscillation range [1] - In the treasury bond market, the central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading is beneficial to the bond market. The economic outlook in the fourth quarter is stable, the short - term necessity for the central bank to cut interest rates is low, and the "see - saw" effect between stocks and bonds disturbs the bond market sentiment. It is expected that the bond market will continue to oscillate [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - On November 11, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4002.76, down 0.39%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13289.00, down 1.03%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3134.32, down 1.40%; the CSI 300 closed at 4652.17, down 0.91%; the STAR 50 closed at 1387.53, down 1.42%; the CSI 500 closed at 7291.61, down 0.71%; the CSI 1000 closed at 7540.79, down 0.30% [1] - A - share non - financial third - quarter cumulative revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, and cumulative net profit attributable to the parent increased by 1.65% year - on - year. ROE (TTM) was 6.5% [1] 3.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - On November 11, 2025, the 10 - year treasury bond futures main contract fell 0.01%, while the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts remained basically stable [1] - The central bank conducted 4038 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases on November 11, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. After deducting the 1175 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, there was a net investment of 2863 billion yuan [1][2] - DR001 rose 3BP to 1.51%, and DR007 rose 1BP to 1.51% [2] 3.2 Price Changes in the Second Quarter 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures | Variety | November 11, 2025 | November 10, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 3033.0 | 3054.0 | - 21.0 | - 0.69% | | IF | 4626.8 | 4672.0 | - 45.2 | - 0.97% | | IC | 7173.0 | 7235.8 | - 62.8 | - 0.87% | | IM | 7390.4 | 7421.0 | - 30.6 | - 0.41% | [3] 3.2.2 Stock Indexes | Variety | November 11, 2025 | November 10, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 3034.6 | 3053.9 | - 19.2 | - 0.63% | | CSI 300 | 4652.2 | 4695.1 | - 42.9 | - 0.91% | | CSI 500 | 7291.6 | 7343.8 | - 52.2 | - 0.71% | | CSI 1000 | 7540.8 | 7563.3 | - 22.5 | - 0.30% | [3] 3.2.3 Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | November 11, 2025 | November 10, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.46 | 102.47 | - 0.006 | - 0.01% | | TF | 105.94 | 105.94 | - 0.005 | 0.00% | | T | 108.48 | 108.49 | - 0.01 | - 0.01% | | TL | 116.30 | 116.28 | 0.02 | 0.02% | [3] 3.3 Market News - The EU Commission is considering forcing member states to remove Huawei and ZTE equipment from their telecom networks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that this act by the EU violates market principles and fair competition rules [4] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Stock Index Futures - The report presents the trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the trends of their respective monthly basis [6][7][9] 3.4.2 Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, basis of different - term treasury bond futures, inter - term spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18][19] 3.4.3 Exchange Rates - The report includes charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar, pound - US dollar, and US dollar - yen exchange rates [22][23][26][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a daily data tracking of stock index futures on November 11, 2025, including the performance of major stock indices, the impact of sector movements on these indices, the basis and annualized opening costs of stock index futures, and the points difference in futures contract roll - over and its annualized costs. 3. Summary by Directory Index Trends - On November 11, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.39% to close at 4002.76 points, with a trading volume of 858.362 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.03% to 13289.0 points, with a trading volume of 1135.224 billion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 0.3% with a trading volume of 404.867 billion yuan; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.71% with a trading volume of 338.598 billion yuan; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.63% with a trading volume of 118.061 billion yuan; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.91% with a trading volume of 477.629 billion yuan [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indices - The CSI 1000 dropped 22.46 points. Sectors such as power equipment and basic chemicals had a positive impact, while household appliances, computer, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. - The CSI 500 dropped 52.19 points, with computer and electronics sectors pulling the index down [2]. - The CSI 300 dropped 42.88 points, affected negatively by non - bank finance, communication, and electronics sectors [2]. - The SSE 50 dropped 19.23 points. The banking sector had a positive impact, while non - bank finance, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had a negative impact [2]. Stock Index Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 55.58, IM01 of - 140.81, IM02 of - 363.76, and IM03 of - 586.08 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 43.5, IC01 of - 109.76, IC02 of - 283.12, and IC03 of - 476.92 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of - 10.23, IF01 of - 25.19, IF02 of - 53.14, and IF03 of - 95.85 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of - 1.09, IH01 of - 3.3, IH02 of - 5.94, and IH03 of - 12.74 [13]. Stock Index Futures Contract Roll - over Points Difference and Annualized Costs - Data on the roll - over points difference and its annualized costs for IM, IC, IF, and IH contracts are presented in the form of 15 - minute average values and corresponding annualized cost graphs [22][23][24].