软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周二，ICE 美棉上涨 0.73%，报收 66.12 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 0.11%，报收 13395 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1221 手至 57.57 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14465 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 9 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14550 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 16 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美联储官员称 | | | | 不会急于降息，但美元指数重心仍在震荡走弱，美棉价格缺乏持续上行驱动。基本 | | | | 面看，目前美棉持续播种中，播种进度稍慢于往年同期水平，受干旱影响面积占比 | | | | 在逐渐下降，后续关注后续宏观及新棉生长情况。国内市场方面，郑棉期价在新的 | | | | 区间震荡，短期缺乏破局动力。首先关注宏观层面扰动，若宏观层面持续无超预期 | | | | 变化，市场关注重心将逐渐向新棉转移，目前 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜先抑后扬，上涨 0.4%至 9554.5 美元/吨；SHFE 铜主力上涨 0.36%至 | | | 78140 元/吨；国内现货进口亏损幅度加大。宏观方面，欧美关税问题进行谈判，日本 | | | 考虑接受美国调降关税，而非完全豁免。国内方面，中国 4 月经济数据显示，消费略 | | | 超预期，固定资产投资整体增速较低，房地产出现回踩特征。库存方面，LME 铜库存 | | | 下降 3575 吨至 170750 吨；comex 铜库存增加 1127 吨至 155694 吨；SHFE 铜仓单下降 | | 铜 | 16175 吨至 45738。需求方面，随着铜价走高，旺季转淡季预期下，下游采购相对谨 | | | 慎，终端需求订单可能逐步放缓。昨晚黄金和原油大幅回升，带动市场情绪，铜价震 | | | 荡走高。另外，市场关注国内某仓位大量持有铜多头情况，市场或担心挤仓风险，且 | | | 铜结构也不利于空头布局，从 SHFE 仓单来看依然维系大量流出情形，表明部分投 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 2.27% to 61,180 yuan/ton. Spot prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 36,545 tons [3]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its 40,000 - ton project this year. In April 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 28,300 tons, a 56.3% month - on - month and 33.6% year - on - year increase. Lithium spodumene imports were 622,900 tons, a 16.5% month - on - month increase [3]. - The lithium ore market's quotation and transaction price centers moved down. Supply increased by 575 tons week - on - week to 16,630 tons, but the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. Demand for lithium carbonate from ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory increased by 351 tons week - on - week to 131,920 tons, with downstream and other segments reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [3]. - The current market contradiction lies in supply. The continuous decline in lithium ore prices and low supply reduction have led to market pessimism, but short - term low valuations may cause capital disturbances and news may affect market sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual upstream production cuts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Price Changes**: The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract dropped 2.27% to 61,180 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 450 yuan/ton to 63,250 yuan/ton, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped 450 yuan/ton to 61,600 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 65,290 yuan/ton, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 200 yuan/ton to 70,435 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 139 tons to 36,545 tons [3]. - **News**: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. plans to produce 3,000 tons of lithium carbonate from its 40,000 - ton project this year. In April 2025, China's lithium carbonate imports were 28,300 tons (a 56.3% month - on - month and 33.6% year - on - year increase), with 20,300 tons from Chile (a 59.3% month - on - month and 18.1% year - on - year increase) and 6,850 tons from Argentina (a 47.4% month - on - month and 101.1% year - on - year increase). Lithium spodumene imports were 622,900 tons (a 16.5% month - on - month increase), including 297,700 tons from Australia (a 3.2% month - on - month decrease and 117.3% year - on - year increase), 40,300 tons from South Africa (a 22.0% month - on - month decrease), 106,000 tons from Zimbabwe (an 81.5% month - on - month increase), and 89,000 tons from Nigeria (a 4.6% month - on - month increase) [3]. - **Market Situation**: The lithium ore market's quotation and transaction price centers moved down. Supply increased by 575 tons week - on - week to 16,630 tons, but the total supply in May is expected to be lower than expected. Demand for lithium carbonate from ternary and lithium iron phosphate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory increased by 351 tons week - on - week to 131,920 tons, with downstream and other segments reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The current market contradiction lies in supply. The continuous decline in lithium ore prices and low supply reduction have led to market pessimism, but short - term low valuations may cause capital disturbances and news may affect market sentiment. Attention should be paid to actual upstream production cuts [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Price Changes**: Most products in the lithium - ion battery industry chain showed price declines on May 20, 2025, compared to the previous day. For example, the main contract closing price of futures dropped 320 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract closing price dropped 3,640 yuan/ton. Lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other product prices also decreased to varying degrees [5]. - **Price Differences**: The price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 250 yuan/ton, while the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [9][11][13]. - **Price Differences**: Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other price differences from 2024 to 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [21][24][27]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other segments from September 2024 to May 2025 [35][37]. - **Production Costs**: Charts present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [39][40].

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格宽幅波动，主力09合约收盘价1849元/吨，微幅上涨0.11%。现货 | 震荡 | | | 市场偏弱运行，昨日多数主流地区市场价格继续回调10~30元/吨，山东地区市场价 | | | | 格下降10元/吨至1890元/吨，河南地区市场价格下降10元/吨至1900元/吨。基本面 | | | | 来看，尿素供应高位波动，日产量昨日回落0.4万吨至20.15万吨。需求端稳步跟进 | | | | ，昨日主流地区现货产销率仍偏弱波动，对市场支撑也较为有限。后期麦收结束后 | | | | 农业用肥仍有跟进预期，等待需求力度验证的同时关注干旱天气对作物播种及施肥 | | | | 的影响。出 相关 息 次出现，后续等待进一步验证。整体来看，尿素期、现价 | | | | 格上方仍有限制，短期市场驱动较为有限，盘面延续震荡趋势。关注现货成交情况 | | | | 、天气情况及本周库存数据。 | | | 纯碱 | 周二纯碱期货价格宽幅震 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 黑色商品日报 | | 市场仍在观望，首询价格 5700 元/吨，较上月环比下降 250 元/吨。锰矿端近期也有新消息传出，South32 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 发布关于 GEMCO 恢复澳大利亚锰矿石出口销售的声明，第一批锰矿正在装船，预计几天后离港发运， | | | | 近期国内锰矿价格相对稳定。综合来看，近期市场在观望主流钢招定价情况，持续上行驱动有限，短期仍 | | | | 以震荡看待。 | | | | 硅铁：周二，硅铁期价震荡走弱，主力合约报收 5638 元/吨，环比下跌 0.14%，主力合约持仓环比增加 1111 | | | | 手。72 号硅铁汇总价格约 5350-5400 元/吨，宁夏地区较前一日下调 50 元/吨。昨日黑色板块整体走势偏 | | | 硅铁 | 弱，硅铁期价高开低走，尾盘小幅收跌。硅铁主流钢招价格敲定，最终 75B 采购价格 5800 元/吨，较首询 | 震荡 | | | 价格小幅上调，但较 4 月定价下跌 150 元/吨，5 月采购数量 2135 吨，较上轮增 435 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the commodities in the report are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][5][6][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI and Brent prices declined, while SC2507 rose. News of Israel's potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities led to a sharp early - morning jump. API data showed an increase in US crude inventories and decreases in gasoline and distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's production growth and OPEC+'s decision to accelerate production increase, along with the uncertainty of US - Iran negotiations, cause the oil price to continue oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil rose, and that of low - sulfur fuel oil fell. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested due to increased summer power generation demand. The volatility of the absolute prices of FU and LU is expected to increase, and the strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread can be continued [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract rose. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported to some extent by order deliveries and project starts in the north, but is weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season. The absolute price volatility of BU is expected to increase, and it may be a relatively weak product among oil products, so a strategy of shorting the cracking spread can be considered [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509, EG2509, and PX futures all declined on Tuesday. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate in the short term [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber and rubber tire production increased year - on - year. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly. Due to low - yield at the beginning of the domestic and foreign tapping seasons and rainfall in overseas areas, the raw material price is supported, and the natural rubber price will oscillate in the short term [5][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, methanol prices showed different levels in different regions. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering. The MTO plant operating rate changed little, and the port and inland inventory levels are low. The methanol price volatility may increase [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, polyolefin prices were in a certain range. Currently, there are many upstream turnarounds, so the overall supply pressure is not large. With the tariff reduction, downstream enterprises increased raw material procurement, and the inventory decreased. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels, so polyolefins are expected to oscillate [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Domestic real - estate construction is temporarily stable, keeping the开工 rate of pipes and profiles relatively stable, but demand will weaken as the real - estate construction enters the off - season. In the short term, the fundamental pressure is relieved due to maintenance disturbances, but the PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI 6 - month contract closed down $0.13 to $62.56/barrel, a 0.21% decline; Brent 7 - month contract closed down $0.16 to $65.38/barrel, a 0.24% decline; SC2507 closed up 3.2 yuan to 467.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.69% increase. US intelligence on Israel's potential strike on Iran led to a nearly 3% jump in early - morning oil prices. API data showed a 2.499 - million - barrel increase in US crude inventories, a 3.238 - million - barrel decrease in gasoline inventories, and a 1.401 - million - barrel decrease in distillate inventories. Kazakhstan's May oil production increased by 2%, ignoring OPEC+ pressure [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2507) rose 0.86% to 3042 yuan/ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2507) fell 0.56% to 3556 yuan/ton. In April 2025, China's bonded marine fuel oil imports were 525,500 tons, a 21.07% month - on - month decline and a 54.11% year - on - year increase. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil may remain tight before June, and the demand is fair. High - sulfur fuel oil inventory is being digested [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract (BU2506) rose 0.8% to 3541 yuan/ton. In June, supply may increase due to profit recovery, but some refinery turnarounds may temporarily reduce the operating rate. Demand is supported in the north but weak in the south, especially with the upcoming rainy season [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.92% at 4732 yuan/ton; EG2509 closed down 1.39% at 4413 yuan/ton. In April 2025, online retail sales and social consumer goods retail data showed mixed trends. An MEG plant had a power outage, and a PTA plant's restart was postponed. PX supply is tight, and PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contracts showed different trends. In April 2025, China's synthetic rubber production was 743,000 tons, a 15.2% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative production from January to April was 2.947 million tons, an 11.3% year - on - year increase. The rubber tire production in April was 102 million pieces, a 3.1% year - on - year increase. The export of rubber tires also increased. Qingdao's rubber inventory decreased slightly [5][6]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2315 yuan/ton, the Inner Mongolia north - line price was 2067.5 yuan/ton, the CFR China price was $260 - 264/ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $330 - 335/ton. The domestic supply decreased due to increased plant maintenance but remained at a high level in the past five years. The Iranian plant load dropped, and the far - month arrival volume is expected to decrease, but the short - term arrival volume is recovering [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7130 - 7350 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is not large due to many upstream turnarounds, and demand increased with tariff reduction, leading to inventory decline. However, both inventory and supply are at relatively high levels [9]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Maintenance devices will resume operation, and new maintenance is limited, so production is expected to increase. Real - estate construction is temporarily stable, but demand will weaken as it enters the off - season [9]. 3.2 Day - to - Day Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on May 21, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [10]. 3.3 Market News - The API reported that for the week ending May 16, US crude inventories increased by 2.499 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 3.238 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 1.401 million barrels [13]. - Trade and shipping data showed that Russia's April seaborne fuel oil and vacuum gas oil exports increased by 8.5% month - on - month to about 4 million tons, as offline primary refining capacity decreased by 21% compared to March [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and para - xylene [15][16][17]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, para - xylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [31][36][37]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European - line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [46][48][51]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, crude oil B - W spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [62][64][66]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [71][75]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: The assistant director of the institute and the director of energy - chemical research, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [77]. - **Du Bingqin**: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison and a bachelor's degree in finance from Shandong University. She has won multiple awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [78]. - **Di Yilin**: An analyst for natural rubber and polyester, with a master's degree in finance. She has won multiple awards and is good at data analysis [79]. - **Peng Haibo**: An analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with a master's degree in engineering from China University of Petroleum (East China), a title of intermediate economist, and experience in energy - chemical spot - futures trading [80].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 点评 19 日多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2506 收于 37150 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.51%，持 仓减仓 4014 手至 28688 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 38000 元/吨，最 低交割品 N 型硅料价格跌至 38000 元/吨，现货对主力升水收至 850 元/ 吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 8130 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.87%，持仓 增仓 16616 手至 15.5 手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9485 元/吨，较上一交易 日下调 67 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 8200 元/吨，现货升水扩至 85 元/吨。新疆头部企业硅厂主动减产，叠加行业呼吁联合减产，短期缓 解供应压力，需求缺乏反转驱动叠加仓单压力压制，反弹空间有限。以防 御性空头策略为主、谨慎看多，关注减产情况和库存变动。多晶硅存在近 端交割短缺和需求急速流失的结构性矛盾中。主力合约处于需求失速和产 能释放的交接点，挤仓压力结束后转弱在所难免，反弹高度弱于前期。前 期正套可逐步止盈，持续跟踪仓单动态、硅片排产、行业会议及政策信 号。 ...

软商品日报 光大期货软商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 1.22%，报收 65.68 美分/磅，CF509 下降 0.19%，报收 13390 | 震荡 | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 1911 手至 57.45 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14474 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日下降 5 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14566 元/吨，较前 | | | | 一日下降 11 元/吨。国际市场方面，近期扰动仍更多在于宏观层面，美元指数震荡 | | | | 走弱，美棉价格重心环比上移，但绝对价格仍相对偏低。关注后续宏观及新棉生长 | | | | 情况。国内市场方面，在中美关税协定初步达成之后，郑棉期价进入新的震荡区 | | | | 间。4 月终端纺服零售数据公布，4 月我国服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类商品零售额当 | | | | 月值 1088 亿元，同比增加 2.2%，增幅季节性下降，但增幅仍持续低于社零同比增 | | | | 速，终端需求仍有待改善空间 ...

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 5 月 2 0 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 780.0 | 793.5 | -13.5 | I05-I09 | 57.5 | 65.5 | -8.0 | | I09 | 722.5 | 728.0 | -5.5 | I09-I01 | 35.5 | 36.5 | -1.0 | | I01 | 687.0 | 691.5 | -4.5 | I01-I05 | -93.0 | -102.0 | 9.0 | 图表1：09-01合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） 0 50 100 150 200 01 01 02 03 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 0 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面小幅下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3069 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 弱势整理 | | | 下跌 13 元/吨，跌幅为 0.42%，持仓增加 4 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价 | | | | 格持平于 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3140 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.81 万吨。据 | | | | 国家统计局数据，1—4 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 4.0%，增速较一季度下行 0.2 个百分点。分领 | | | | 域看，基础设施投资同比增长 5.8%，增速较一季度持平；制造业投资增长 8.8%，增速较一季度回落 0.3 个 | | | | 百分点，房地产开发投资下降 10.3%，降幅较一季度扩大 0.4 个百分点。从房地产分项指标来看，4 月房地 | | | | 产开发投资、销售、新开工、施工和竣工同比分别下降 11.53%、下降 2.91%、 ...