投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 steels CI生量中 =: F0251925 2025/6/12 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交覆(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2692. 1365 | | 0. 59 | | 665. 28 | | 35. 57 | | | 沪深300 | 3894. 6252 | | 0. 75 | | 2572. 18 | | 142. 41 | | | 中证1000 | 6186. 5122 | | 0. 40 | | 2436. 71 | | 197.64 | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交里 | 认购期权 | 认法期权 | 日成交里 | 期权持仓里 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 持仓里 | | | (万张) | 成交里 | 成交里 | PC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - In the current Sino-US trade policy environment, there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the fourth quarter, which will raise the center of the soybean meal futures price. The spot market is active with downstream traders and feed mills actively buying, mainly trading on the 10 - 1 basis. Rumors of plant shutdowns support the short - term bullish oscillation of the futures price. However, with the continuous progress of vessel bookings, if the weather is normal, the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade policies and the planting area report at the end of the month [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on June 11th, in Dalian it was - 17 (up 34), in Rizhao - 157 (up 14), in Tianjin - 67 (up 24), in Zhangjiagang - 167 (down 16), in Dongguan - 187 (down 6), in Zhanjiang - 147 (down 6), and in Fangcheng - 167 (down 16). For rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong, it was - 128 (up 16) [4] Spread Data - On June 11th, the M9 - 1 spread was - 17, N9 - RM9 was 20, RM9 - 1 was 1200, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 350 (down 15), and the futures spread of the main contract was 200 (up 7) [5] International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1383, the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 115 (down 62), and the import soybean futures gross profit was - 62 yuan/ton [5] Inventory Data - As of last week, domestic soybean inventory continued to accumulate and was at a relatively high level compared to the same period. Soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory but was still at a low level. With the significant increase in processing and crushing, soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate more rapidly in June [6] Supply, Demand, and Market Situation - Supply: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current vessel booking progress is 94.4% for June, 80.6% for July, and 33.8% for August. The US soybean planting progress is fast, and the weather in the next two weeks is expected to be favorable for early soybean growth [5][6] - Demand: Judging from the livestock inventory, the supply of pigs is expected to increase steadily before September, the poultry inventory remains high, the cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, and downstream transactions have increased with better delivery [6] - Market situation: The downstream traders and feed mills are actively buying, and the market trading is booming, mainly trading on the 10 - 1 basis. There are rumors of plant shutdowns, which support the short - term bullish oscillation of the futures price [6]

| | | | | 聚酯数据日 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/12 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/10 | 2025/6/11 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 479.8 | 478. 1 | -1. 70 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,后期PTA供应渐增,预估7月PTA累 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/吨) | 1125. 2 | 1145.6 | 20. 35 | 库存,利空PTA行情。本周PTA现货货少,递盘基差走 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3227 | 1. 3297 | 0. 0070 | 强。 | | PX | CFR中国PX | 817 | 812 | -5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 249 | 239 | -11 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4612 | 4620 | 8. ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【一 国贸期货 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | | 技资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/6/12 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/6/10 | 2025/6/11 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4855 | 4825 | (30. 00) | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4376 | 4377 | 1.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨10至6414。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4612 | 4620 | 8.00 | 短纤生产企业价格横盘整理,贸易商价格偏弱震 | | MEG收盘价 | 4269 | 4285 | 16.00 | 荡,下游按需采购,场内成交一般。 | | | | | | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6570 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate within a range and maintain a long - term upward trend. The silver - gold ratio has basically recovered before the counter - tariff, and there is a risk of further weakening in the short term. In the long term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate more on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On June 11, 2025, COMEX gold was at $3357.90 per ounce, London gold spot was at $3336.87 per ounce, London silver spot was at $36.57 per ounce, and COMEX silver was at $36.74 per ounce. Compared with June 10, they increased by 0.3%, 0.3%, 0.3%, and 0.4% respectively. AU2508 was at 777.54 yuan/gram, AG2508 was at 8902 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was at 774.41 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 8888 yuan/kilogram, with increases of 0.3%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [5] Spread/Ratio Data - On June 11, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active spread was 3.96 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 3.13 yuan/gram, and the gold and silver spreads and ratios had corresponding changes compared with June 10, with some spreads having significant percentage changes such as 9.3%, 9.4%, etc. [5] Position Data - As of June 10, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 246,982 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 59,077 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 81,981 contracts, etc., with corresponding percentage changes compared with June 9 [5] Inventory Data - On June 11, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 17,817 kilograms (unchanged from June 10), SHFE silver inventory was 1,229,816 kilograms, an increase of 3.02% compared with June 10. COMEX gold inventory was 37,929,466 troy ounces, a decrease of 0.44% compared with June 10, and COMEX silver inventory was 495,180,453 troy ounces, an increase of 0.17% [5] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On June 11, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.05, an increase of 0.03% compared with June 10. The US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.18, a decrease of 0.03% compared with June 10. Other data such as US Treasury yields, VIX, S&P 500, and NYMEX crude oil also had corresponding changes [5] Market News and Analysis - The US appellate court ruled that Trump's tariff measures can continue during the appeal process. The US and Mexico reached an agreement on reducing steel tariffs and restricting imports. The EU believes that trade negotiations with the US will extend beyond the July deadline. China and the US had in - depth and rational consultations on trade, and basically reached a framework for implementing the consensus of the leaders' calls and Geneva talks. US CPI data in June was lower than expected, increasing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in August [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Steel prices have reached the resistance level of the 20 - day moving average. After the basis repair, if the industry fails to find a better bullish story, prices may face pressure again. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging and open - position management [4][5]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal and coke continues to fluctuate. With the long - term agreement price and quantity discounts from major mines in Shanxi, the cost of coking coal is decreasing. The market has expectations of price cuts. Considering the high uncertainty in the macro - environment and the approaching off - season for steel demand, it is advisable to take a short - side approach in the medium - to - long - term [4][5]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the price elasticity increases. The cost support for silicon ferroalloy and manganese silicon is weakening, and the prices are expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to subsequent steel procurement [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipment is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. Considering the approaching off - season for steel demand, it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 11, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various varieties showed different degrees of increase. For example, the far - month contract RB2601 closed at 2985 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan or 0.54%; the near - month contract RB2510 closed at 2991 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.67% [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts also changed. For instance, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton on June 11, with a change of 2 yuan [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of various products such as Shanghai's rebar, Tianjin's rebar, and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil also had different changes on June 11. For example, the price of Shanghai's rebar was 3100 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3210 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: The price has reached the resistance of the 20 - day moving average. After the basis repair, the price may face pressure again if there is no good bullish story. The resistance levels for the rebound of hot - rolled coils and rebar are around the 20 - day moving average on the disk [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, major mines in Shanxi have increased long - term agreement price and quantity discounts, and the coking coal auction remains weak. On the futures side, the sector continues to fluctuate. After the news of the poor outcome of the China - US talks, the market sentiment turned bearish, and short - sellers started to increase their positions [4][5]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Silicon**: There are rumors of furnace shutdowns in Inner Mongolia's silicon ferroalloy plants. The direct demand is weakening, the cost support is weakening, and the prices are expected to be under pressure [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipment is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is starting to accumulate. Considering the approaching off - season for steel demand, the downstream pressure is increasing, and it is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the possibility of an upward breakthrough in stock indices is low without significant positive news. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by macro - economic conditions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different commodities show different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock indices: Limited upward breakthrough possibility without positive news, be cautious about Sino - US tariff signals, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks suppress the upward space, with short - term oscillation and a solid long - term upward logic [1]. Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost risk appetite, but weak downstream demand limits the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and fluctuating macro - sentiment may lead to oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increasing production in the smelting end pressures the futures price [1]. - Zinc: Monday's inventory increase pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation following the macro - situation, with long - term pressure from first - grade nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term weak oscillation, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply shortage in the short term leads to high - level oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Short - term oscillation with heavy warehouse receipt pressure and supply - demand imbalance [1]. - Silicon iron: Oscillation due to weak supply and demand [1]. Building Materials and Energy - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance leads to a weakening price trend [1]. - Soda ash: Supply surplus concerns and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price [1]. - Coking coal: Can continue to short - sell, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse receipt cost of 780 - 800 [1]. - Coke: Falls in line with coking coal as the cost of coal for furnace use decreases [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May have a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data in the MPOB report [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Weak fundamentals and the game with other oils, be vigilant against a rebound [1]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, affected by trade negotiations, weather, and consumption seasons [1]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the price may be affected by the sugar - alcohol ratio and crude oil prices [1]. - Corn: Tight supply - demand balance expected, with short - term oscillation [1]. - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation is strong, but the increase of MO9 is expected to be limited [1]. Chemicals - PTA: The tight situation is alleviating, and short - fiber costs are closely related [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continues to decline due to profit expansion and inventory reduction [1]. - Styrene: Bullish due to increased device load and concentrated inventory [1]. - PP: Oscillation is strong due to maintenance and rigid demand [1]. - PVC: Oscillation is weak due to increased supply pressure and seasonal factors [1]. - LPG: Supply increase, high port inventory, and weak demand suppress the price, and there are short - selling opportunities [1]. Others - Shipping: For container shipping on the European line, consider short - selling and long - buying strategies according to different contract periods [1]. - Fuel oil: Oscillation, affected by geopolitical situations and consumption seasons [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillation, with cost drag and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillation, with factors such as narrowing price difference, falling raw material prices, and reduced inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Expected to decline due to weak cost support and high inventory [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View - The central bank uses short - and medium - term liquidity management tools to keep mid - year liquidity reasonably abundant. Short - term fluctuations in stock indices are dominated by overseas factors. The results of short - term Sino - US trade negotiations are relatively positive, leading to a relatively strong market oscillation. However, caution is needed regarding the repeated signals of Sino - US tariffs when operating [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Monetary Market - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a 0.48bp increase, DR007 at 1.53 with a 2.13bp increase, GC001 at 1.53 with a 2.00bp increase, GC007 at 1.58 with a 2.50bp increase. SHBOR 3M was 1.64 with a - 0.30bp change, LPR 5 - year was 3.50 with a - 10.00bp change. 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds were at 1.41 (-0.50bp), 1.50 (-0.60bp), and 1.64 (-1.45bp) respectively, and 10 - year US treasury bonds were at 4.47 (-2.00bp) [3] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1640 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%. With 2149 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net withdrawal was 509 billion yuan. This week, 9309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market, with 1265 billion and 1350 billion yuan maturing on Thursday and Friday respectively [3][4] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 rose 0.75% to 3894.6, the SSE 50 rose 0.59% to 2692.1, the CSI 500 rose 0.61% to 5792.9, and the CSI 1000 rose 0.4% to 6186.5. The trading volume of the two markets was 12555 billion yuan, a decrease of 1599 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher [5] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts, IF, IH, IC, and IM of the current - month contracts had certain price changes and volume/position changes. For example, IF current - month contract rose 1.0%, its trading volume increased 13.3%, and its open interest increased 5.1% [5] - **Premium and Discount Situation**: The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts for different delivery months are provided. For example, the IF current - month contract had a premium rate of 16.48% [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - A slight restocking by downstream players has led to a rebound in lithium carbonate prices. However, the contradiction of continuously falling ore prices remains unchanged. After the price rebound, the supply of lithium carbonate has increased rapidly while the demand has remained stable. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 60,500 yuan, with a daily increase of 150 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 58,900 yuan, also with a daily increase of 150 yuan. [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2506 is 61,700 yuan, up 1.18%; lithium carbonate 2507 is 61,680 yuan, up 1.68%; lithium carbonate 2508 is 61,780 yuan, up 1.41%; lithium carbonate 2509 is 61,740 yuan, up 1.41%; lithium carbonate 2510 is 61,800 yuan, up 1.41%. [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China, Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 630 yuan, with a daily increase of 2 yuan. [1] - The price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 685 yuan, up 10 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1210 yuan, up 25 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5620 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6540 yuan. [2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,445 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,960 yuan, down 140 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,665 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 121,435 yuan, down 100 yuan. [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan. The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1180 yuan, with a change of - 770 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 100 yuan, with a change of 80 yuan; the spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 60 yuan, with a change of 160 yuan. [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 132,432 tons, an increase of 861 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 57,116 tons, an increase of 881 tons; the inventory of downstream players (weekly, tons) is 41,076 tons, a decrease of 540 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 34,240 tons, an increase of 520 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 32,837 tons, a decrease of 110 tons. [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,937 yuan, with a profit of - 1280 yuan; the cash cost of externally purchased lithium mica concentrate is 64,891 yuan, with a profit of - 6730 yuan. [3] Company News - On the evening of June 9, EVE Energy announced that it plans to issue H - shares and list on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to further enhance its capital strength, comprehensive competitiveness, and international brand image. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The pulp lacks clear driving factors in the short term and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,200 - 5,500 yuan/ton [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pulp Price Data Futures Prices - On June 11, 2025, SP2601 was 5,270 yuan, down 0.23% week - on - week and up 0.38% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5,346 yuan, down 0.56% week - on - week and up 0.91% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5,260 yuan, down 0.45% week - on - week and up 0.46% week - on - week [1]. Spot Prices - On June 11, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6,150 yuan, unchanged week - on - week; Russian coniferous pulp was 5,350 yuan, unchanged week - on - week and up 0.56% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4,120 yuan, unchanged week - on - week [1]. Outer - disk Quotes and Import Costs - Outer - disk quotes (in dollars) on June 11, 2025: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged month - on - month; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month. Import costs: Chilean Silver Star was 6,046 yuan, unchanged month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4,587 yuan, unchanged month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5,073 yuan, unchanged month - on - month [1]. 3.2 Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In April 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; the import volume of broadleaf pulp was 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1,353 tons in April 2025, down 30.80% from 1,955 tons in March 2025. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp showed certain fluctuations from April 17 to June 5, 2025 [1]. Inventory - As of May 29, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 216.1 tons, up 0.2% from the previous period; the delivery warehouse inventory was 25.2 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The inventory of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard also showed certain fluctuations during different periods [1]. Demand - The output of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard showed certain fluctuations from April 17 to June 5, 2025. Among them, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable [1]. 3.3 Pulp Valuation Data - On June 11, 2025, the Russian coniferous pulp basis was 4, with a quantile level of 0.72; the Silver Star basis was 804, with a quantile level of 0.959. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 104, with a quantile level of 0.78; the import profit of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 467, with a quantile level of 0.207 [1]. 3.4 Summary Supply End - Chile's Arauco Company announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk price: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged; there was no supply of broadleaf pulp in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July (with limited quantity); natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged. According to the PPPG report, in April 2025, the shipment volume of M20 coniferous pulp to China decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the shipment volume of broadleaf pulp to China increased by 26.7% year - on - year [1]. Demand End - Cultural paper and white cardboard manufacturers issued price increase letters, but the implementation was poor. Downstream paper mills made rigid purchases. Among the main finished paper outputs, the output of white cardboard increased slightly, and the output of other paper types was stable [1]. Inventory End - As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 216.1 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% increase month - on - month. The overall inventory quantity changed little, showing a slight inventory accumulation trend [1].