Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily data report on sugar, covering domestic and international sugar - related data and market analysis [2][3][4] Group 2: Domestic Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5900 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan was 5790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong was 6115 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [3] - SR09 was 5793, down 11; SR01 was 5655, down 11; SR09 - 01 was 138, unchanged [3] - The domestic market demand was weak, low inventory supported the spot price in Guangxi, and processed sugar entered the market, causing the quoted price to loosen and putting pressure on prices [4] Group 3: International Sugar Price and Market Data - On July 31, 2025, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.2095, up 0.0160; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004 [3] - The main contract of ICE raw sugar was 16.46, unchanged; the main contract of London white sugar was 573, up 3; the main contract of Brent crude oil was 72.75, unchanged [3] - In Brazil, sugar production in the second half of June was lower than expected. If the sugar - alcohol ratio continued to decline, Brazil's sugar output might not meet expectations [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - Considering the expected increase in imports, the overall domestic supply - demand situation would be marginally looser, and the market was expected to be bearish after a rebound [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Pulp supply is increasing while prices are decreasing, with the Arauco company's new July wood pulp offers showing certain trends and the May shipment volume to China increasing by 3.3% [1] - The demand side shows a slight decline in the output of major finished paper products this week, and the low prices of finished paper provide weak support for pulp [1] - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China is 210.5 tons, showing a destocking trend with a 1.8% month - on - month decrease [1][2] - Pulp futures are greatly affected by the macro - environment, and this week's commodity sentiment is expected to be volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 [2] Summary by Directory Price Data - On July 31, 2025, the futures prices of SP2601, SP2509 decreased by 1.45% and 1.76% respectively compared to the previous day, while SP2605 increased by 0.86% [1] - The spot prices of coniferous pulp such as Russian needle and broad - leaf pulp such as Goldfish decreased by 2.21% and 0.72% respectively [1] - The foreign market quotations of Chilean Silver Star and Chilean Star decreased by 2.70% and 10.71% respectively, and the import costs decreased by 2.68% and 10.60% respectively [1] Fundamental Data - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, a 6.09% decrease compared to May [1] - The shipment volume of pulp to China in May increased by 3.3% compared to April [1] - The output of finished paper products such as offset paper, coated paper, toilet paper, and white cardboard decreased slightly this week [1] Valuation Data - On July 31, 2025, the basis of Russian needle pulp was 0.825, and the basis of Silver Star pulp was 0.889 [1] - The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, and that of broad - leaf pulp Golden was 19 [1] Inventory Data - As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 210.5 tons, a 1.8% decrease compared to the previous period [1][2] Strategy - Pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 5200 and 5500 this week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the methanol spot market may shift from a strong to a weak - oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - Methanol prices in many domestic regions increased slightly. For example, the price in Shandong rose from 2290.00 to 2295.00, while the price in Taicang dropped from 2400.00 to 2385.00. Other regions like Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - Among关联品 (related products), the price of methane chloride increased from 2060.00 to 2110.00, and MTBE increased from 5000.00 to 5030.00 [1]. Supply - Domestic methanol production increased from 276685.00 to 277085.00, and the domestic operating rate rose from 85.66 to 85.78. International operating rate remained at 69.71 [1]. Inventory - Both enterprise inventory and port inventory remained unchanged at 339830.00 and 725800.00 respectively [1]. Demand - The order backlog remained at 244832.00. The operating rates of MTO, dimethyl ether, formaldehyde, acetic acid, chloride, MTBE, etc. remained mostly unchanged [1]. - The formaldehyde market showed mixed trends. With a slight adjustment in raw material methanol, cost - side support strengthened. However, formaldehyde producers faced greater shipping pressure as the downstream entered the off - season [1].

Market Review - The closing price of the Shanghai 50 Index was 2775.9935, down 1.54%, with a trading volume of 61.52 billion and a turnover of 131.852 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 300 Index was 4075.5912, down 1.82%, with a trading volume of 267.09 billion and a turnover of 492.143 billion yuan; the closing price of the CSI 1000 Index was 6661.1862, down 0.85%, with a trading volume of 270.14 billion and a turnover of 401.822 billion yuan [4] - The trading volume of Shanghai 50 index options was 5.68 million contracts, including 3.59 million call options and 2.09 million put options, with a PCR of 0.58 and an open interest of 7.13 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 14.43 million contracts, including 8.40 million call options and 6.03 million put options, with a PCR of 0.72 and an open interest of 19.96 million contracts; the trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 27.99 million contracts, including 14.89 million call options and 13.10 million put options, with a PCR of 0.88 and an open interest of 26.81 million contracts [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% to 3573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.73%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.16%, the STAR 50 Index fell 1.01%, the Wind All - A Index fell 1.36%, the Wind A500 Index fell 1.89%, and the CSI A500 Index fell 1.75%. The A - share trading volume for the day was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day [10] Volatility Analysis - Conducted historical volatility analysis and next - month at - the - money implied volatility analysis on the Shanghai 50 Index, CSI 300 Index, and CSI 1000 Index, and presented the volatility smile curves [8][9][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee on July 30 pointed out the need to deepen reforms, promote the development of new - quality productivity through scientific and technological innovation, and optimize market competition order. It also mentioned governing disorderly competition among enterprises and promoting capacity governance in key industries. The market sentiment may cool down due to the Politburo's stance on anti - involution and "low - price" expressions. In the short term, although downstream stocking is significant, downstream production scheduling has not increased, and the actual consumption of inventory is limited. There is a possibility of capital re - entry, and prices are expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation. Industrial players can consider hedging on price rallies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan [1]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,100 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. Lithium Compound Futures - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2508 is 68,000 yuan/ton, down 4.87% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2509 is 68,280 yuan/ton, down 4.66% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2510 is 68,440 yuan/ton, down 4.01% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 68,600 yuan/ton, down 3.98% [1]. - The closing price of lithium carbonate 2512 is 69,120 yuan/ton, down 3.46% [1]. Lithium Ore Prices - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) is 766 yuan, down 10 yuan [1]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1,120 yuan, down 20 yuan [2]. - The price of lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 5,325 yuan, down 350 yuan [2]. - The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 6,250 yuan, down 375 yuan [2]. Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,885 yuan, down 305 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 145,130 yuan, up 90 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 116,895 yuan, down 100 yuan [2]. - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 122,455 yuan, up 80 yuan [2]. Price Spreads - The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 3,720 yuan, an increase of 1,370 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 280 yuan, an increase of 60 yuan [2]. - The price difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 440 yuan, a decrease of 60 yuan [2]. Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 141,726 tons, down 1,444 tons [2]. - The inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 51,958 tons, down 3,427 tons [2]. - The inventory of downstream enterprises (weekly, tons) is 45,888 tons, up 3,073 tons [2]. - The inventory of other sectors (weekly, tons) is 43,880 tons, down 1,090 tons [2]. - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 5,545 tons, down 6,731 tons [2]. Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 68,893 yuan, and the profit is 7,621 yuan [3]. - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is not clearly stated, and the profit is - 7,136 yuan [3].

| | | | | | | | 日本市政府市政府 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/31 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0020036 董子勖 F03094002 | | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.17% to 3615.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.77%, the ChiNext Index dropped 1.62%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 declined 1.75%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.11%, the Wind All A decreased 0.4%, the Wind A500 dropped 0.15%, and the CSI A500 declined 0.22% [11]. - A - share trading volume reached 1.87 trillion yuan throughout the day, compared with 1.83 trillion yuan the previous day [11]. 2. Index Quotes | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Trading Volume (Billion) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2819.3508 | 0.38 | 1125.97 | 52.19 | | CSI 300 | 4151.2379 | - 0.02 | 4451.68 | 249.85 | | CSI 1000 | 6718.4819 | - 0.82 | 3926.75 | 268.18 | [4] 3. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading | Index | Option Trading Volume (10,000 Contracts) | | | Option Open Interest (10,000 Contracts) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Put Options | Call Options | PCR | | Call Options | Put Options | PCR | | SSE 50 | 1.91 | 3.71 | 0.51 | 6.82 | 4.29 | 2.53 | 0.59 | | CSI 300 | 4.83 | 7.58 | 0.64 | 19.26 | 10.95 | 8.31 | 0.76 | | CSI 1000 | 11.22 | 13.69 | 0.82 | 26.13 | 13.49 | 12.65 | 0.94 | [4] 4. Volatility Analysis - The report presents historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 [8][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, methanol prices will fluctuate within a range, and in the medium to long term, the methanol spot market may shift from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price - On July 30, 2025, the price of Sichuan and Chongqing liquefied gas increased by 107 to 4450, international natural gas increased by 0.35 to 11.34, Taicang methanol increased by 10 to 2400, and Shandong methanol increased by 30 to 2290. The prices of MTBE increased by 50 to 5000. Other products' prices remained unchanged [1] Supply - On July 30, 2025, domestic methanol production decreased by 1500 to 276685, and domestic methanol operation rate decreased by 0.46 to 85.66. International operation rate remained unchanged at 69.71 [1] Inventory - On July 30, 2025, the arrival volume at the port, enterprise inventory, and port inventory of methanol remained unchanged, at 17.38, 339830, and 725800 respectively [1] Demand - On July 30, 2025, the order backlog of methanol remained unchanged at 244832 [1] Cost - On July 30, 2025, the cost of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol increased by 4.2 to 1881.5, Shandong coal - based methanol increased by 4.2 to 2131.5, and Shanxi coal - based methanol increased by 4.6 to 1984.5. Other products' costs remained unchanged [1] Operating Rate - On July 30, 2025, the operating rates of various methanol downstream products remained unchanged, with the MTO operating rate at 84.95, dimethyl ether at 5.19, formaldehyde at 37.19, wax fragrance at 92.69, chloride at 75.79, and MTBE at 69.01 [1] Associated Product Prices - On July 30, 2025, the prices of formaldehyde (Shandong), dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and methane chloride remained unchanged, at 925, 3330, 2250, and 2060 respectively. The price of MTBE increased by 50 to 5000 [1]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The central bank increased reverse repurchase operations to stabilize inter - bank market funds as the funds tightened recently, and there will be 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week [3][4]. - After consecutive strong rallies, with the phased realization of macro - level positive factors, the upward speed of stock index futures may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for [6]. 2. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.32%, down 4.80bp; DR007 at 1.52%, down 4.67bp; GC001 at 1.78%, up 12.00bp; GC007 at 1.63%, down 5.00bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.38%, down 2.00bp; 5 - year treasury at 1.58%, down 2.50bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.72%, down 3.05bp; 10 - year US treasury at 4.34%, down 8.00bp [3]. - **Reverse Repurchase**: The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday, with 150.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [3]. 2.2 Stock Index Futures - **Closing Prices and Changes**: The CSI 300 closed at 4151, down 0.02%; the SSE 50 at 2819, up 0.38%; the CSI 500 at 6315, down 0.65%; the CSI 1000 at 6718, down 0.82%. IF当月 closed at 4147, down 0.1%; IH当月 at 2821, up 0.3%; IC当月 at 6271, down 0.7%; IM当月 at 6676, down 0.8% [5][6]. - **Volume and Open Interest Changes**: IF volume increased by 41.3% to 138031, and open interest increased by 5.9% to 274703; IH volume increased by 53.7% to 70949, and open interest increased by 9.0% to 103281; IC volume increased by 19.5% to 105254, and open interest increased by 2.3% to 229923; IM volume increased by 22.7% to 231279, and open interest increased by 5.0% to 346497 [5]. 2.3 Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount - **IF**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 2.33%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.90% respectively [7]. - **IH**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are - 1.66%, - 0.16%, - 0.08%, and - 0.12% respectively [7]. - **IC**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.71%, 11.25%, 9.59%, and 8.92% respectively [7]. - **IM**: The premium/discount rates for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 14.56%, 12.17%, 11.60%, and 10.93% respectively [7]. 3. Market Review - The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.8443 trillion yuan, an increase of 41.1 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Industry sectors had more decliners than gainers, with the mining, shipbuilding, tourism and hotel, food and beverage, and commercial department store sectors leading the gains, while the battery, diversified finance, small metals, engineering machinery, and power supply equipment sectors leading the losses [6]. 4. Market Hot News - This week, 1.6563 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases in the central bank's open market will mature, with 170.7 billion, 214.8 billion, 150.5 billion, 331 billion, and 789.3 billion yuan maturing from Monday to Friday respectively [4]. - After the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, China's Ministry of Commerce stated that both sides will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. The Politburo meeting released little incremental information, emphasizing policy continuity, stability, flexibility, and predictability, and promoting the governance of non - competitive behavior in enterprises and over - capacity in key industries [6].

| | | | | | | | 日本市政府市政府 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/31 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 F0286636 Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 F3051824 Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | | | Z0020036 董子勖 F03094002 | | | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 F03117750 Z0022680 | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/吨 ...