Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View - The zinc market is in a range-bound consolidation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,285 yuan/ton, down 0.18%, and the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,865.5 dollars/ton, up 1.15% [1]. - **Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 117,964 lots, down 7,724, and the trading volume of LME zinc was 13,277 lots, up 5,867 [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 104,733 lots, down 2,929, and the open interest of LME zinc was 195,978 lots, down 866 [1]. - **Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -70 yuan/ton, unchanged; LME CASH - 3M premium was 20.44 dollars/ton, up 5.46 [1]. - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 40,947 tons, up 1,992, and LME zinc inventory was 55,225 tons, down 375 [1]. News - **Fed's Interest - Rate Cut**: Fed Governor Waller said the Fed should start cutting interest rates this month and make multiple cuts in the next few months, with the pace depending on economic data [2]. - **US Job Market**: US JOLTS job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low at 7.181 million, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September [2][3]. Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The near - end game sentiment for eggs is relatively strong [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,011 with a daily increase of 2.62% and a trading volume change of 196,012 and an open - interest change of - 62,505; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,436 with a daily increase of 2.44%, a trading volume change of 28,519 and an open - interest change of - 3,877 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 242 (previous day: - 236), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 425 (same as the previous day) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Shanxi are 3.20 yuan/jin, in Hebei is 2.80 yuan/jin, and in Hubei is 3.22 yuan/jin, all remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the Henan live - pig price is 14.08 yuan/kg (previous day: 14.18 yuan/kg) [1]. b. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values in the [- 2,2] interval, indicating a neutral sentiment. The classification of strength includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

Group 1: Report Core View - The continuous reduction in lead inventory supports the price [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,865 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead contract was 1,998.5 dollars/ton, down 0.42% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 30,342 lots, a decrease of 11,881 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 5,559 lots, an increase of 2,250 lots [1] Open Interest - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 50,638 lots, a decrease of 866 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 160,192 lots, an increase of 785 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -50 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.5 dollars/ton, down 0.5 dollars [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was -45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the import premium was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Import Profit and Loss - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -575.08 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57.1 yuan; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous third - month contract was -614.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 63.5 yuan [1] Inventory - The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 55,874 tons, a decrease of 554 tons; the LME lead inventory was 254,550 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons [1] Recycling Market - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME lead cancelled warrants were 59,225 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,725 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -306 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [1] Group 3: News - Weak US JOLTS job openings data strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Waller said that interest rate cuts should start this month and could be cut multiple times in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [1] - Trump reiterated that tariffs could replace income tax, and the US was reported to use tariffs as a threat to oppose the UN shipping emissions agreement [1] Group 4: Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on lithium carbonate fundamentals, including contract prices, trading volumes, open interest, and various basis differentials. It also provides information on raw material prices and export volumes of lithium carbonate from Chile. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is rated as neutral [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data of Lithium Carbonate - **2509 Contract**: The closing price was 72,080 yuan, down 1,200 yuan from the previous day. The trading volume was 94 lots, a decrease of 786 lots, and the open interest was 5,571 lots, down 2,123 lots [1]. - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 71,880 yuan, down 740 yuan. The trading volume was 442,800 lots, a decrease of 177,641 lots, and the open interest was 346,048 lots, down 2,061 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 34,118 lots, an increase of 2,111 lots [1]. - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,820 yuan, down 400 yuan; the basis of spot - 2511 was 4,020 yuan, down 860 yuan; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 200 yuan, down 460 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 872 dollars, down 15 dollars; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was not specified, down 35 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **SMM Battery - Grade Lithium Carbonate Index**: The price was 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,900 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 73,600 yuan/ton, down 1,600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Chilean Lithium Carbonate Exports**: In August 2025, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 16,900 tons, a 19.2% decrease from the previous month but a 4.9% increase year - on - year. Exports to China were 13,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease from the previous month but a 6.9% increase year - on - year; exports to South Korea were 3,000 tons, a 50.4% decrease from the previous month but a 35% increase year - on - year [2][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2025 年 09 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单累库，逢高布空逻辑 多晶硅：关注市场消息层面影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,490 | 20 | -35 | 130 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 275,841 | -69,772 | -100,354 | 88,827 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 279,742 | -1,738 | 4,184 | 103,578 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 52,160 | 285 | 3,470 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 362,759 | -168,019 | -139,651 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 149,2 ...

2025 年 9 月 4 日 棕榈油：缺乏持续驱动，等待回调 豆油：震荡调整 | | | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,346 | -0.36% | 9,340 | -0.06% | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,454 | 0.38% | 8,338 | -1.37% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,900 | -0.50% | 9,732 | -1.70% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,441 | -0.74% | 4,422 | -0.45% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 51.83 | -1.58% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 656 | 382 | 1,233 | -650 | | ...

2025 年 9 月 4 日 沥青：OPEC 增产施压，地缘风险未绝 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2510 | 元/吨 | 3,550 | -0.03% | 3,523 | -0.76% | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,540 | -0.08% | 3,509 | -0.88% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2510 | 手 | 101,178 | (51,331) | 93,085 | (12,775) | | | BU2511 | 手 | 97,989 | (24,726) | 242,094 | 12,210 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 70300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that it is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda. The market will remain volatile in the short - term. Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, but there is also no immediate downward driver for the spot. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and the valuation of the near - month contracts already incorporates the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2612, the cheapest deliverable in Shandong is 870, the basis is 2719, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda is 107 [1]. Spot News - Taking Shandong as a benchmark, the liquid caustic soda market in the province remained stable today. Due to the summit and military parade, transportation was hindered, causing some enterprises' inventories to increase. However, order shipments temporarily supported the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Upward Driver Constraints**: The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda are exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new capacity from Vinythai and high supplies from Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. Export profits have not expanded, export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. Regarding alumina, the high - production and high - inventory situation has continuously compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the inventory - building starts, the market is difficult to achieve simultaneous movement of futures and spot [1][2]. - **Overall Situation**: Currently, there is an expectation game in the caustic soda market. Before alumina starts inventory - building for new production and export conditions improve, the upward driver is insufficient. However, there is also no downward driver for the spot. In terms of valuation, futures are at a discount to the spot, and the near - month contracts' valuation already includes the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [1][2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1][3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints The report focuses on the sugar market, covering domestic and international production, consumption, import data, and price trends. It also mentions the expected supply shortage in the 25/26 global sugar season and the anticipated decline in sugar yield and increase in production costs in Guangxi for the 25/26 season [1][2][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.05 cents/pound, down 0.09; the mainstream spot price is 5930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures main contract price is 5562 yuan/ton, down 37 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 28 yuan/ton, up 16; the 15 spread is 30 yuan/ton, down 9; the mainstream spot basis is 368 yuan/ton, up 37 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **International**: Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons from 45.9 million tons. India's monsoon precipitation was 6.7% higher than the long - period average on September 1. Brazil exported 3.59 million tons in July, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [1]. - **Domestic**: CAOC predicted that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season would be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production would be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of May 25, the 24/25 season's national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons, and sales were 8.11 million tons, an increase of 1.52 million tons, with a sales rate of 72.7%. As of July 25, the 24/25 season's cumulative sugar imports were 3.24 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in Guangxi's sugar yield and an increase in production costs [1][2]. International Market - ISO first predicted a global sugar supply shortage of 23,000 tons in the 25/26 season and 488,000 tons in the 24/25 season. - As of August 1, 25/26, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 8.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 19.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the cumulative MIX was 52.06%, a year - on - year increase of 2.93 percentage points. - ISMA/NFCSF predicted that India's total sugar production in the 25/26 season would be 34.9 million tons, an increase of 5.4 million tons from the 24/25 season. - OCSB data showed that Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farming groups significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to engage in the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - shifting driving force of the central price in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation and implementation for the July contract, and it is mainly bullish in the short - term, with attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 14,080 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 13,850 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 15,840 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year [1] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the生猪2511 contract is 13,550 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2601 contract is 13,915 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 55 yuan/ton; the price of the生猪2603 contract is 13,130 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. The strength levels are classified as weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong, where -2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [2] Market Logic - At the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, large - scale pig farming groups significantly reduced the supply, and the spot price fulfilled the market's rebound expectation. The planned slaughter volume of large - scale groups will increase in August, and small - scale farmers are forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle will resonate from September to October, and it is advisable to engage in the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The sentiment for purchasing piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the slaughter cost from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - shifting driving force of the central price in March and May. There is an expectation of further policy regulation and implementation for the July contract, and it is mainly bullish in the short - term, with attention to stop - loss and take - profit. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3] Futures Research - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the生猪2511 contract is 19,415 lots, a decrease of 6,627 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,596 lots, an increase of 208 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2601 contract is 7,959 lots, a decrease of 3,513 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 48,179 lots, a decrease of 577 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the生猪2603 contract is 3,160 lots, an increase of 315 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 32,475 lots, a decrease of 109 lots from the previous day [4] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of the生猪2511 contract is - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2601 contract is 785 yuan/ton; the basis of the生猪2603 contract is 20 yuan/ton; the 11 - 1 spread of live pigs is 530 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 55 yuan/ton; the 1 - 3 spread of live pigs is 165 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 155 yuan/ton [4]