国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：震荡反弹 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：震荡反弹 | 供应 | • | 本周(20251212-1218)中国甲醇产量为2055975吨，较上周增加18370吨，装置产能利用率为90.52%，环比涨0.90%。本周国内甲醇恢复涉及产能产出量多于 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 检修、减产涉及产能损失量，导致本周产能利用率上涨。下周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量206.67万吨左右，产能利用率91.00%左右， | | | | 较本期上涨。下周计划检修及减产涉及产能少于计划恢复涉及产能，因此或将导致产能利用率上涨，产量增加。（隆众资讯） | | | • | 烯烃：宁波富德、青海盐湖装置延续停车状态，MTO行业周均开工下降。 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2602 contract, consider lightly building long positions around 1700 points or lower for delivery; for the 2604 contract, maintain rolling short - selling. The 2602 contract has three scenarios: neutral, optimistic, and pessimistic, and the price trend in week 3 is uncertain. The 2604 contract has a relatively higher probability of short - selling, and in the short - term, beware of the risk of premium water [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - This week's view on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) is to lightly build long positions in the 02 contract for delivery and pay attention to the premium water risk in the 04 contract. In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and the number of pending voyages was reduced to 1. There were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [4][5] 3.2 Demand - From the perspective of China's exports (valued in amount, updated to November), in November, China's year - on - year exports to the US declined from - 25.2% in October to - 28.6%, while the year - on - year growth rate of exports to the EU increased by 13.9 percentage points to 14.8%. Exports to ASEAN decreased from 11.0% to 8.2% but still showed resilience, and exports to Africa further increased to 27.6%. In terms of Asian exports to Europe (updated to October) and North America (updated to October), there were different trends in container trade volumes in different months. The US import volume tracking (updated to December 11) also showed certain trends [33][36][39] 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Supply Chain Risk Events - Geopolitical situation disturbances include the limited progress of the second - stage cease - fire talks in Gaza, the increased risk of internal conflict in Yemen, and the symbolic passage of Maersk's Sebarok through the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which does not mean the full normalization of the Red Sea route [52] 3.3.2 European Line Ship Schedule - In the past week, the weekly average capacity in January remained at 318,000 TEU/week, and there were changes in different alliances' ship schedules. In February, there are currently 4 blank sailings and 8 pending voyages, with a weekly average capacity of 275,000 TEU/week, and there is still a large room for revision [54] 3.3.3 Turnover Efficiency - It includes aspects such as the sailing speed of container ships, the number of idle container ships, regional congestion situations (including ports in China, the UK/Europe, the Mediterranean/Black Sea, Southeast Asia, North America), and the congestion situations of major ports in Europe, North America, and Asia [63][67][69] 3.3.4 Static Capacity - In the past three months, there were new 12,000 + TEU container ships launched by the top ten liner companies, and there are also new ships to be delivered in the remaining months of 2025 and in 2026. The delivery plans of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 17,000 + TEU container ships from 2024 - 2026 are also summarized [80][83][85] 3.4 Price - For the 2512 contract, the delivery settlement price is the average of the SCFIS indices of weeks 50, 51, and 52. The SCFIS index of week 51 is expected to be between 1570 - 1630 points, and that of week 52 is expected to be between 1730 - 1780 points, with the delivery settlement price of the 2512 contract likely to be between 1600 - 1640 points. In January, based on the quotes of leading companies, the average FAK in the market in week 2 is expected to be around 2800 US dollars/FEU [16][17]

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 周度重点宏观逻辑追踪及资产观点 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 宏观数据全息图及基本面高频数据 • 海外权益 – 波动率与风险情绪指标 2 • 周度海外宏观要点：Mini11月——基本面、 BOJ和科技板块 放风险 • 周度宏观经济数据回顾：就业趋势走弱，但维 持降息预期 • 周度宏观经济数据回顾：通胀数据质量不佳， 但降温不可忽视 • 周度海外宏观要点：More Charts of the Week Special report on Guota ...

2025年12月21日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 | 12 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 | 21 | | 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 | 29 | | 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 | 29 | | 豆粕：低位震荡，等待新消息指引 | 35 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 40 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注需求20251221 | 46 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 | 53 | | 花生：关注现货 | 59 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z00214 ...

国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 工业硅：逢高布空思路，关注供应扰动 | 12 | | 多晶硅：预计盘面宽幅震荡态势 | 12 | | 碳酸锂：大厂复产预期延后，短期高位运行 | 21 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 2025年12月21日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 消息点评：印尼政策削弱空方信心，短线获得一定支撑，但上行驱动仍需关注政策落地情况。 1）印尼政府敦促企业重新提交了 2026 年 RKAB 预算，市场公开消息称印尼希望可以削减至 2.5 亿吨 镍矿配额。根据我们测算，预计 2024-2026 年印尼镍矿需求为 2.5、2.8 和 3.0 亿吨，2.5 亿吨的配额或 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 纸浆周度报告 1 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情数据 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 行情走势 基差与月差 现货价格 供给 库存 需求 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 行业资讯 1.【常熟港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月18日，中国纸浆常熟港库存51.4万吨，较上周期下降1.8万吨，环比下降3.4%。本周常熟港库存呈现去库走势。 2.【青岛港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月18日，中国青岛港港内及港外仓库纸浆库存135.2万吨，较上周下降1.0万吨，环比下降0.7%。本周期青岛港库存周期内 呈现去库的走势。 3.【高栏港纸浆库存统计】截至2025年12月18日，中国纸浆高栏港库存4.5万吨，较上周下降0.9万吨，环比下降16.7%。本周期高栏港库存呈现去库的 ...

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国泰君安期货-黑色金属周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属团队 | 林小春 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000526 | linxiaochun@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | 张广硕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | 金园园 | （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 1、钢材观点：预期提振，钢价反弹 2、铁矿周度观点：宏观风偏再修复，矿价短期走强 3、煤焦周度观点：预期扰动频繁，宽幅震荡 4、铁合金观点：基本面与宏观情绪共振，盘面走势偏强震荡 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 螺纹钢&热轧卷板周度报告 黑色分析师：李亚飞 投资咨询号：Z00 ...

2025年12月21日 国泰君安期货研究周报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 | 2 | | 豆粕：低位震荡，等待新消息指引 | 8 | | 豆一：现货偏强，盘面震荡 | 8 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 13 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注需求20251221 | 19 | | 生猪：旺季不旺，缺猪逻辑证伪 | 26 | | 花生：关注现货 | 32 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 21 日 棕榈油：高产压力未释放完毕，持续磨底 豆油：美豆压力仍大，豆油震荡偏弱运行 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 棕榈油：高产边际交易难言充分，高库存压制反弹高度，原油价格再次挑战年内低点，内外交困下棕 榈油 05 合约周跌 3.04%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，油脂板块整体尚未企稳，豆油 05 合约周跌 3.53%。 本周观 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short fiber: In the short - term, it is in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is likely to be weak. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, while the terminal is gradually transmitting negative feedback upwards. Eventually, the contradiction may be resolved through the negative feedback of the polyester sector. However, due to the profit and low - inventory cushions of mainstream fiber varieties, the game will continue for some time. The unilateral price is generally volatile with increased volatility. Although the fundamental data of short fiber is good, the processing fee valuation is generally high, and positions for compressing the processing fee should be held, with timely profit - taking in case of cost fluctuations [3][8][9]. - Bottle chips: They are expected to be weak in a volatile manner. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying, similar to short fiber. In December, the actual supply of bottle chips increases, but the downstream load rebounds. Some factories plan early maintenance in mid - to late January to deal with potential high inventory accumulation. The supply - demand situation improves marginally, and investors can take long positions in the positive spread at low prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Short Fiber (PF) 3.1.1 Supply - Factory operation is maintained at a high level, with an average operation rate of 95.5%. The operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning has dropped to 96.8% (the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Gaoxin is under maintenance until the end of the month) [9]. 3.1.2 Demand - Domestic demand for terminal orders is weakening. The yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are continuing to reduce their loads. The grey fabric situation is slightly worse than last year, but the rest are still acceptable. The future demand outlook is weak, and some downstream enterprises may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. In the second half of the week, raw material prices rose sharply, but the terminal had difficulty following up. The physical inventory is high, and raw material inventory procurement is moderately low. Downstream enterprises are expected to maintain the rhythm of replenishing inventory according to rigid demand, waiting for the absolute low price [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory transfer of short fiber is relatively smooth, with a slight inventory reduction. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3 days, and the physical inventory is 14.7 days [9]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current spot processing fee is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is high; the futures processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, also high [10]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Observe positive spreads at low prices and enter the market when the valuation is reasonable. - Inter - variety: Hold long positions in PX/TA and short positions in PF in the short - term, and take profits in time in case of cost fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Bottle Chips (PR) 3.2.1 Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory operation rate is expected to be generally around 80%. This week, the operation rate is 80.8%. After mid - December, the factory operation rate may increase again (Huarun Zhuhai plans to increase its load in late December). The production of Fuhai's 300,000 - ton unit is postponed again, and it is expected to produce products by the end of the month [11]. 3.2.2 Demand - The off - season for demand continues, and the increase in the operation rate due to year - end inventory replenishment has not yet arrived. The average operation rate of beverage factories has dropped to around 60%, and the operation rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also declined. The export volume from November to December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September to October. Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of bottle chip factories has dropped to just over 14 days [11]. 3.2.3 Valuation - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is moderate; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 380 - 390 yuan/ton, slightly low [11]. 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Take profits on reverse spreads and take long positions in positive spreads at low prices (for contracts after March). - Inter - variety: Take profits on reducing the processing fee [11]. 3.3 Other Information 3.3.1 Sino - US Negotiations - The negotiation result is that the fentanyl tariff is reduced by 10%, and high - value reciprocal tariffs are no longer a potential weapon. The textile and clothing tax rate has decreased from 49.3% to 39.3%. The United States may import about one - month's worth of goods in advance, and considering the consumption from May to September, there may still be about half a month's worth of imports left. There is still room for advance imports from November to December, but it is expected to be mainly near - term orders. The positive impact is more reflected in the import outlook for the whole of next year, but competition from other countries should still be noted [12]. 3.3.2 New Capacity in 2026 - For bottle chips, the domestic capacity to be put into operation with relatively high certainty in 2026 is only the 400,000 - ton unit of Keson and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [14]. - For short fiber, there are mainly two units in China in 2026: the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Yida and the 550,000 - ton unit of Xin凤鸣, which are planned to be put into operation in the first half and mid - year respectively, with a relatively high capacity growth rate of 8.7%. In addition, since the 250,000 - ton unit of Yida mainly produces sewing threads, it may also affect the spun - lace sector (due to potential production conversion), putting greater pressure on the non - standard price difference [17]. 3.3.3 Short Fiber Export - The direct export of short fiber is expected to remain strong. The garment, weaving, and texturing sectors continue to move overseas, and the proportion of garment exports from Southeast Asia is high. The production capacity in other regions such as Pakistan and Egypt has also increased, supporting the direct export of short fiber. From the export data of short fiber from January to September 2025, the export growth rates in other regions except North America and Africa are relatively high, showing high resilience in the face of changing trade conditions. The exemption from the Indian BIS certification has boosted exports in the short - term, but the export growth rate of short fiber is already very high, and the main impact is on the filament sector [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Bottle Chip Market - **Basis and monthly spread**: In the second half of the week, the raw material prices rose sharply, the futures price followed, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread was generally weak [25]. - **Spot price and important spreads**: The absolute price rebounded, but the trading volume was average. This week, the transaction price was in the range of 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton; the FOB price was in the range of 750 - 775 US dollars/ton. The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a relatively low driving force for further substitution. The cost - performance ratio of bottle chips compared to general plastics such as PP is still high, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][29][30]. - **Production and operation**: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber). This week, the bottle chip load is 80.5% [33]. - **Raw materials**: The PTA unit has reduced its load, and the processing fee is at a low level. The coal - based ethylene glycol unit has significantly reduced its load, and the port inventory is increasing [44][47]. - **Cost and profit**: The polymerization cost is about 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost, reflecting a relatively high level of export profit [51]. - **Inventory**: Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has dropped to around 14 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons, and in December it is estimated to be 3.44 million tons [57]. - **Device changes**: The 600,000 - ton unit of Zhuhai Huarun has restarted (not included in this week's load). In late January 2026, a 1.2 - million - ton unit in Jiangyin is expected to be shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart at the end of March. The 250,000 - ton unit of Tenglong reduced its production to around 85% in mid - November, and the original plan to operate at full capacity around December 10 has been postponed to around late December. The 350,000 - ton unit of Yisheng Dahua is expected to restart at the end of January, and Hainan Yisheng is expected to carry out corresponding maintenance. The new 300,000 - ton unit of Fuhai was fed on December 16 and is expected to produce products next week [63][64]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of downstream industries has rebounded month - on - month. The operation rate of beverage enterprises has slightly rebounded to between 70% and 90%, with some areas slightly higher or lower. In the sheet material sector, the operation rate in East China is 50% - 70%, and in South China it is around 40%. The average operation rate of edible oil factories is between 60% and 80%, with some areas slightly higher or lower [68][69]. - **Global trade flow**: Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased very little in recent years, and a small amount of growth is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In addition, the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle chips in Europe and the United States also has bottlenecks in cost and supply volume. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, etc. for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [82]. - **Export situation**: According to customs data, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices in September 2025 was 551,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Short - term concerns include: (1) the impact of the US removing bottle chips from the tariff exemption list on the re - export of bottle chips from countries such as South Korea and Vietnam, which may indirectly affect China's export volume; (2) the increasing proportion of Chinese bottle chip imports in the southern hemisphere regions such as Africa this year, and the approaching summer in these regions provides support for exports from November to December [89]. 3.3.5 Short - fiber Market - **Valuation**: The basis is volatile, the inter - month relationship remains in contango, and the near - month contract is gradually flattening [101]. - **Operation rate**: The operation rate of short - fiber factories is high. The short - fiber load has dropped to around 95.5% but still remains at a high level. This week, the operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning is 97% [110]. - **Polyester inventory**: As raw material prices rise, the price increase of polyester products lags behind, and the inventory is mainly reduced slightly [114]. - **Polyester export**: In October, the year - on - year export of polyester continued to grow, but the month - on - month performance was divergent [119]. - **Polyester profit**: The profit of filament is relatively weak [121]. - **Short - fiber downstream**: The operation rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [129]. - **Weaving operation**: The operation rate has decreased slightly [131]. - **Weaving inventory**: The raw material inventory procurement has decreased slightly. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in the Yangtze River Delta has decreased slightly. This week, only some areas such as Ningbo have effectively increased their inventory, while the rest of the areas are mainly engaged in scattered procurement. There are discussions on large - volume orders, but there is a lack of actual transactions, and the supply and demand sides are in a price game. Currently, the inventory of production factories is mainly concentrated at 5 - 7 days. The grey fabric orders are generally weak, and the fabric price is declining. The new orders in the weaving sector are generally weak, with only some improvement in foreign trade, and domestic sales are relatively more sluggish. The overall grey fabric inventory is still increasing. The price of conventional grey fabric varieties continues to decline, the nominal cash flow of grey fabric is weakening, and the losses are obvious [137][139]. - **Chinese textile and clothing retail**: In November, it increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [141]. - **Textile and clothing export**: In November, the month - on - month export decreased [149].