1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short fiber: In the short - term, it is in a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is likely to be weak. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying. The cost side is pre - trading the shortage of PX in the first half of the year, while the terminal is gradually transmitting negative feedback upwards. Eventually, the contradiction may be resolved through the negative feedback of the polyester sector. However, due to the profit and low - inventory cushions of mainstream fiber varieties, the game will continue for some time. The unilateral price is generally volatile with increased volatility. Although the fundamental data of short fiber is good, the processing fee valuation is generally high, and positions for compressing the processing fee should be held, with timely profit - taking in case of cost fluctuations [3][8][9]. - Bottle chips: They are expected to be weak in a volatile manner. The contradiction between cost and the terminal is intensifying, similar to short fiber. In December, the actual supply of bottle chips increases, but the downstream load rebounds. Some factories plan early maintenance in mid - to late January to deal with potential high inventory accumulation. The supply - demand situation improves marginally, and investors can take long positions in the positive spread at low prices [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Short Fiber (PF) 3.1.1 Supply - Factory operation is maintained at a high level, with an average operation rate of 95.5%. The operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning has dropped to 96.8% (the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Gaoxin is under maintenance until the end of the month) [9]. 3.1.2 Demand - Domestic demand for terminal orders is weakening. The yarn, weaving, and grey fabric sectors are continuing to reduce their loads. The grey fabric situation is slightly worse than last year, but the rest are still acceptable. The future demand outlook is weak, and some downstream enterprises may consider taking early holidays in mid - January. In the second half of the week, raw material prices rose sharply, but the terminal had difficulty following up. The physical inventory is high, and raw material inventory procurement is moderately low. Downstream enterprises are expected to maintain the rhythm of replenishing inventory according to rigid demand, waiting for the absolute low price [9]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The inventory transfer of short fiber is relatively smooth, with a slight inventory reduction. The 1.4D equity inventory is 3 days, and the physical inventory is 14.7 days [9]. 3.1.4 Valuation - The current spot processing fee is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is high; the futures processing fee is 950 - 1000 yuan/ton, also high [10]. 3.1.5 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Observe positive spreads at low prices and enter the market when the valuation is reasonable. - Inter - variety: Hold long positions in PX/TA and short positions in PF in the short - term, and take profits in time in case of cost fluctuations [10]. 3.2 Bottle Chips (PR) 3.2.1 Supply - In the fourth quarter, the factory operation rate is expected to be generally around 80%. This week, the operation rate is 80.8%. After mid - December, the factory operation rate may increase again (Huarun Zhuhai plans to increase its load in late December). The production of Fuhai's 300,000 - ton unit is postponed again, and it is expected to produce products by the end of the month [11]. 3.2.2 Demand - The off - season for demand continues, and the increase in the operation rate due to year - end inventory replenishment has not yet arrived. The average operation rate of beverage factories has dropped to around 60%, and the operation rates of edible oil and sheet material factories have also declined. The export volume from November to December is expected to be in the range of 550,000 - 600,000 tons, mainly compensating for the export rhythm from September to October. Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of bottle chip factories has dropped to just over 14 days [11]. 3.2.3 Valuation - The spot processing fee is 400 - 450 yuan/ton, which is moderate; the 02 - 03 processing fee is 380 - 390 yuan/ton, slightly low [11]. 3.2.4 Strategy - Unilateral: No recommendation. - Inter - period: Take profits on reverse spreads and take long positions in positive spreads at low prices (for contracts after March). - Inter - variety: Take profits on reducing the processing fee [11]. 3.3 Other Information 3.3.1 Sino - US Negotiations - The negotiation result is that the fentanyl tariff is reduced by 10%, and high - value reciprocal tariffs are no longer a potential weapon. The textile and clothing tax rate has decreased from 49.3% to 39.3%. The United States may import about one - month's worth of goods in advance, and considering the consumption from May to September, there may still be about half a month's worth of imports left. There is still room for advance imports from November to December, but it is expected to be mainly near - term orders. The positive impact is more reflected in the import outlook for the whole of next year, but competition from other countries should still be noted [12]. 3.3.2 New Capacity in 2026 - For bottle chips, the domestic capacity to be put into operation with relatively high certainty in 2026 is only the 400,000 - ton unit of Keson and the remaining 300,000 tons of Fuhai, with a total of 700,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 3.2%. The profit trend is expected to recover [14]. - For short fiber, there are mainly two units in China in 2026: the 250,000 - ton unit of Hengyi Yida and the 550,000 - ton unit of Xin凤鸣, which are planned to be put into operation in the first half and mid - year respectively, with a relatively high capacity growth rate of 8.7%. In addition, since the 250,000 - ton unit of Yida mainly produces sewing threads, it may also affect the spun - lace sector (due to potential production conversion), putting greater pressure on the non - standard price difference [17]. 3.3.3 Short Fiber Export - The direct export of short fiber is expected to remain strong. The garment, weaving, and texturing sectors continue to move overseas, and the proportion of garment exports from Southeast Asia is high. The production capacity in other regions such as Pakistan and Egypt has also increased, supporting the direct export of short fiber. From the export data of short fiber from January to September 2025, the export growth rates in other regions except North America and Africa are relatively high, showing high resilience in the face of changing trade conditions. The exemption from the Indian BIS certification has boosted exports in the short - term, but the export growth rate of short fiber is already very high, and the main impact is on the filament sector [18][19][20]. 3.3.4 Bottle Chip Market - **Basis and monthly spread**: In the second half of the week, the raw material prices rose sharply, the futures price followed, the basis weakened, and the monthly spread was generally weak [25]. - **Spot price and important spreads**: The absolute price rebounded, but the trading volume was average. This week, the transaction price was in the range of 5650 - 5750 yuan/ton; the FOB price was in the range of 750 - 775 US dollars/ton. The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a relatively low driving force for further substitution. The cost - performance ratio of bottle chips compared to general plastics such as PP is still high, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [27][29][30]. - **Production and operation**: Since 2024, the production capacity base has been continuously expanding, and the current effective production capacity has reached 21.68 million tons (CCF caliber). This week, the bottle chip load is 80.5% [33]. - **Raw materials**: The PTA unit has reduced its load, and the processing fee is at a low level. The coal - based ethylene glycol unit has significantly reduced its load, and the port inventory is increasing [44][47]. - **Cost and profit**: The polymerization cost is about 5150 - 5250 yuan/ton. The bottle chip processing fee is passively compressed, with the spot processing fee around 440 - 500 yuan/ton. The export profit is about 750 - 800 yuan/ton calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost, reflecting a relatively high level of export profit [51]. - **Inventory**: Due to the concentrated shipment at the beginning of the month, the inventory of domestic polyester bottle chip factories has dropped to around 14 days (CCF caliber). According to CCF data, the estimated social inventory in November is 3.23 million tons, and in December it is estimated to be 3.44 million tons [57]. - **Device changes**: The 600,000 - ton unit of Zhuhai Huarun has restarted (not included in this week's load). In late January 2026, a 1.2 - million - ton unit in Jiangyin is expected to be shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart at the end of March. The 250,000 - ton unit of Tenglong reduced its production to around 85% in mid - November, and the original plan to operate at full capacity around December 10 has been postponed to around late December. The 350,000 - ton unit of Yisheng Dahua is expected to restart at the end of January, and Hainan Yisheng is expected to carry out corresponding maintenance. The new 300,000 - ton unit of Fuhai was fed on December 16 and is expected to produce products next week [63][64]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of downstream industries has rebounded month - on - month. The operation rate of beverage enterprises has slightly rebounded to between 70% and 90%, with some areas slightly higher or lower. In the sheet material sector, the operation rate in East China is 50% - 70%, and in South China it is around 40%. The average operation rate of edible oil factories is between 60% and 80%, with some areas slightly higher or lower [68][69]. - **Global trade flow**: Overseas bottle chip production capacity has increased very little in recent years, and a small amount of growth is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent. In addition, the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET substitution of virgin bottle chips in Europe and the United States also has bottlenecks in cost and supply volume. The overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle chip exports are: (1) China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; (2) China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; (3) China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East, etc. for re - export to North America; (4) China - Africa and South America [82]. - **Export situation**: According to customs data, the total export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices in September 2025 was 551,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Short - term concerns include: (1) the impact of the US removing bottle chips from the tariff exemption list on the re - export of bottle chips from countries such as South Korea and Vietnam, which may indirectly affect China's export volume; (2) the increasing proportion of Chinese bottle chip imports in the southern hemisphere regions such as Africa this year, and the approaching summer in these regions provides support for exports from November to December [89]. 3.3.5 Short - fiber Market - **Valuation**: The basis is volatile, the inter - month relationship remains in contango, and the near - month contract is gradually flattening [101]. - **Operation rate**: The operation rate of short - fiber factories is high. The short - fiber load has dropped to around 95.5% but still remains at a high level. This week, the operation rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber for spinning is 97% [110]. - **Polyester inventory**: As raw material prices rise, the price increase of polyester products lags behind, and the inventory is mainly reduced slightly [114]. - **Polyester export**: In October, the year - on - year export of polyester continued to grow, but the month - on - month performance was divergent [119]. - **Polyester profit**: The profit of filament is relatively weak [121]. - **Short - fiber downstream**: The operation rate of polyester yarn has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [129]. - **Weaving operation**: The operation rate has decreased slightly [131]. - **Weaving inventory**: The raw material inventory procurement has decreased slightly. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in the Yangtze River Delta has decreased slightly. This week, only some areas such as Ningbo have effectively increased their inventory, while the rest of the areas are mainly engaged in scattered procurement. There are discussions on large - volume orders, but there is a lack of actual transactions, and the supply and demand sides are in a price game. Currently, the inventory of production factories is mainly concentrated at 5 - 7 days. The grey fabric orders are generally weak, and the fabric price is declining. The new orders in the weaving sector are generally weak, with only some improvement in foreign trade, and domestic sales are relatively more sluggish. The overall grey fabric inventory is still increasing. The price of conventional grey fabric varieties continues to decline, the nominal cash flow of grey fabric is weakening, and the losses are obvious [137][139]. - **Chinese textile and clothing retail**: In November, it increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [141]. - **Textile and clothing export**: In November, the month - on - month export decreased [149].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【中国前11个月轮胎出口量同比增长3.7%】据中国海关总署12月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前11个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达883万吨，同比增长3.7%； 出口金额为1537亿元，同比增长2.5%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达850万吨，同比增长3.5%；出口金额为1477亿元，同比增长2.3%。按条数计算，出 口量达64,321万条，同比增长3.8%。1-11月汽车轮胎出口量为751万吨，同比增长3.1%；出口金额为1266亿元，同比增长1.7%。 2. ...

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 21, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yang Honghan [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Urea prices will fluctuate. Medium - term: There is support for urea prices. The driving force is neutral currently, and whether it turns positive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. [2][3][4] Summary by Directory Supply Domestic Supply - Capacity: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 3920000 tons, and in 2025, it was 6640000 tons. There are still plans for new capacity in 2026. [26] - Production: From December 11 - 17, 2025, China's urea production was 1.3659 million tons, a decrease of 19500 tons or 1.41% compared to the previous period. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.37 million tons, with a slight increase possible in the next cycle. [2] - Cost: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has risen. For example, the cash - flow cost and full cost of fixed - bed plants in Shanxi have changed in recent days due to coal price and cost factor fluctuations. [32] - Profit: Urea cash - flow cost - corresponding profit is currently in a profitable state. [37] - Net Import (Export): During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. The export volume in 2025 (E) shows certain trends, with significant increases in some months. [43] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises carried out maintenance in November and December 2025, including Yangmei Fengxi Fertilizer Industry, Linggu Chemical Group, etc. Some maintenance is routine, and some is due to cost - related losses. [28] Demand Domestic Demand - Agricultural Demand: Seasonally, agricultural demand is strengthening. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn. The production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers also reflect the demand situation. [49][52][56] - Industrial Demand: - Compound Fertilizer: The production capacity utilization rate, production cost, inventory, and production profit of compound fertilizers show the industry's fundamentals. [58] - Melamine: The production profit, market price, production volume, and production capacity utilization rate of melamine are presented. [59][60][61] - Real Estate: The demand from the real estate industry for panels has limited support, but panel exports are resilient. [62] Inventory - Factory Inventory: On December 17, 2025, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54500 tons or 4.42% compared to the previous week. De - stocking was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast, and Northwest China, while some main production and sales areas had slight inventory accumulation. [3][68] - Port Inventory: As of December 18, 2025 (week 51), China's urea port sample inventory was 138000 tons, an increase of 15000 tons or 12.20% compared to the previous period. [3][68] International Urea - Price: The report shows the price trends of Chinese large - granular urea FOB, Baltic large - granular urea FOB, Middle East large - granular urea FOB, and Brazilian large - granular urea CFR from 2018 - 2025. [71][72][73][74][75] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term fluctuating, medium - term bullish. Near the time point of the trading peak - season expectation. - Spread: The 1 - 5 month spread is gradually entering a fluctuating pattern. After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to take a long position in the 5 - 9 spread at low levels. - Cross - variety: Not available currently. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices and pay attention to supply disturbances. The market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with short - term emotional speculation potentially driving up the price, but the upside space is limited [1][7]. - Polysilicon: The futures market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The supply - demand pattern is also weak, and although the establishment of a platform company boosts market confidence, the upside is restricted due to weak demand [2][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - Industrial silicon: From December 1 to December 19, 2025, the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for different grades of industrial silicon remained relatively stable, with only minor price adjustments on a few days [11]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: This week, the weekly production of industrial silicon decreased slightly. In December, the reduction in production in the southwest region increased, and although some factories in Xinjiang resumed production, the overall production from November to December decreased. The social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.55 million tons, and the overall industry inventory decreased by 0.25 million tons [3]. - Demand: The downstream demand for industrial silicon is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production schedule has decreased; in the organic silicon sector, although the weekly production has increased and some monomer plants have resumed production after maintenance, the price - support logic is difficult to sustain due to the off - season and high inventory; in the aluminum alloy sector, the procurement behavior is rational; the export volume in the fourth quarter has shrunk significantly [3]. 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly in the short term. In December, some manufacturers reduced production, while others resumed production, so the monthly production did not show a significant decrease. The inventory of silicon material manufacturers has reached 300,000 tons, and the cost may continue to rise [4]. - Demand: The weekly production schedule of silicon wafers decreased. In December, the production schedule decreased due to the decline in terminal demand, but the silicon wafer price is expected to stabilize and rise [4]. 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - The average price of DMC has shown a certain trend of change, and the monthly operating rate of the DMC industry has also fluctuated over time. The monthly production of DMC and its year - on - year change, as well as the factory inventory, all have their own seasonal characteristics. The export volume of primary - form polysiloxane and its year - on - year change, and the profit calculation of the DMC industry also reflect the industry's operating conditions [27][31]. 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - The price of recycled aluminum ADC12 has seasonal characteristics, and the monthly operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry has also changed over time. The profit calculation of the recycled aluminum industry and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles also show certain trends [31][33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Although the poor US cotton export data restricts its upward drive, the lack of new negative fundamentals limits its downward momentum. Attention should be paid to external market factors, and there may be a risk of decline if market risk appetite deteriorates [6][17] - The domestic cotton futures and spot prices continue to strengthen slightly, and the basis remains relatively firm. The high and stable basis supports cotton futures, but the increasing cotton warehouse receipts and the incomplete release of domestic cotton supply pressure limit the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton futures. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and it is too early to focus on next year's planting. It is better to discuss it after the Spring Festival in combination with demand. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend, but the upward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the change of the spot basis [2][17] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - connected | 63.83 | 64.39 | 62.97 | 63.65 | - 0.18 | - 0.28 | 96897 | 10398 | 183446 | 1813 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - connected | 13800 | 14070 | 13790 | 14015 | 180 | 1.30 | 1209539 | - 20174 | 761543 | 364044 | | Cotton Yarn Main - connected | 19980 | 20225 | 19950 | 20050 | 70 | 0.35 | 38934 | 5139 | 22821 | 1986 | [5] 2. Fundamental Analysis International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton fluctuated at a low level this week. The March contract once fell below 63 cents/pound on Tuesday due to the decline in crude oil prices and poor US cotton export data. However, driven by the US inflation data boosting interest - rate cut expectations and short - covering, it rebounded slightly in the second half of the week, recovering most of the losses on Tuesday. Currently, the poor US cotton export data makes ICE cotton lack upward drive, but in the context of an overall optimistic external market risk appetite, it temporarily holds the 63 - cent/pound line [6] - As of the week ending November 27, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,800 tons, a 8% decrease from the previous week and a 23% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly shipment volume was 27,700 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week and a 5% decrease from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season accounted for 51% of the annual forecasted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume accounted for 41% of the annual total signed volume [7] - In India, both cotton import and export were strong in October. Textile exports were still affected by US tariffs. The raw cotton import volume in October was 127,000 tons, a record high in recent months. The export volume was 24,000 tons, a 33% increase from September and a 36% increase year - on - year. The textile export value in October was 1.55 billion US dollars. The Cotton Corporation of India has purchased about 4 million bales of new cotton, with a total inventory of 4.6 million bales [8] - ABRAPA's forecast of Brazil's cotton production in the 2025/26 season is lower than CONAB's. The cotton planting area in Mato Grosso state is expected to decline by 7.8% this season. The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association predicts that the cotton production in 2026 will reach 3.83 million tons [9] - In Pakistan, the demand for imported cotton has slightly improved, and the cotton production forecast remains in the range of 7 - 7.25 million bales. The local yarn demand is continuously weak, and some spinning enterprises are selling inventory at low prices. Yarn exports are mainly to the Chinese market [10] - In Bangladesh, it is expected that the import volume of US cotton will increase slightly in the next few months. Cotton import procurement is still sporadic. Although clothing and textile export orders are relatively stable, yarn prices are flat, and producers are facing increasing operating pressure [10] - As of the week ending December 19, the operating rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 67%, 62%, and 65.5% respectively, showing little change [11] Domestic Cotton Situation - From December 12 - 19, domestic cotton futures and spot prices continued to be stable and slightly stronger. The procurement of cotton raw materials by spinning enterprises and cotton merchants was good in the first half of the week, mainly for low - basis spot lock - basis transactions. The spot basis changed little, and the price of 2025/26 machine - picked cotton in North and South Xinjiang was mostly between 14,900 - 15,100 yuan per ton [12] - As of December 19, the registered cotton warehouse receipts were 3,870, and the forecast warehouse receipts were 3,852, totaling 7,722, equivalent to 324,324 tons [12] - The sales of pure - cotton yarn in the market were generally poor, except for the relatively stable demand for combed high - count yarn. The prices of pure - cotton yarn fluctuated. Xinjiang spinning enterprises maintained a high operating rate with no inventory pressure, while the operating rate of inland spinning enterprises continued to decline. The pure - cotton grey cloth market remained weak, with local traders stocking up slightly, and the overall order volume did not recover much [13] 3. Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on cotton sales progress, commercial inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving enterprises' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' operating rate (weekly), cotton cloth enterprises' operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 4. Operation Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to external market factors. If market risk appetite deteriorates, there may be a risk of decline [17] - In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend, but the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the change of the spot basis. It is too early to focus on next year's planting, and it is better to discuss it after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (Dec 11 - 17, 2025), the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 29.2%, a 0.7% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 27.6%, a 0.2% week - on - week decrease. Although some refineries in East and South China resumed or increased production, a refinery in Shandong intermittently switched to producing residual oil, leading to the decline [4]. - From Dec 10 - 16, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 350,000 tons, an 8.9% week - on - week decrease. Shipments in East and Shandong China decreased significantly. In Shandong, refineries stopped asphalt production, and snow and rain affected demand. In East China, major refineries intermittently reduced production, and high prices curbed purchasing enthusiasm [4]. - Crude oil rebounded significantly this week, but the situation in Venezuela heated up. Traders were worried about geopolitical risks and reduced提货, leading to significant inventory accumulation and a sharp decline in the discount. Asphalt deviated from the strong oil price and remained low [4]. - The average weekly theoretical profit of domestic asphalt processing was - 355 yuan/ton, a 98 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase. The spot price of the asphalt market fluctuated between 3081 - 3086 yuan/ton, with a slowdown in the decline and a narrowing of the price fluctuation range. Five regions saw price drops of 0.9% - 5.4%, with the highest in the Northwest at 5.4%. Only one region, Northeast China, saw a price increase [4]. - Strategies: 1) Unilateral: -; 2) Inter - period: -; 3) Inter - variety: The BU - SC crack spread remained low [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - The report analyzes the supply, demand, price, valuation, and strategies of the asphalt market in the week of Dec 11 - 17, 2025, and points out that asphalt deviated from the strong oil price and remained low due to the situation in Venezuela [4]. 3.2 Price & Spread - **Cost Structure**: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma瑞 crude oil. Some raw materials have advantages like not requiring crude oil quotas and being exempt from consumption tax. Different crude oils have different asphalt yields, e.g., Ma瑞 crude oil has a yield of 55% - 60% [7]. - **Price and Spread Charts**: There are charts showing the relationship between futures and spot prices, such as the relationship between Brent, WTI, SC, and asphalt prices, and the differences between different regions' asphalt prices and production margins [11][12]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Demand - **Consumption Distribution**: The demand for asphalt mainly comes from the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), the waterproof market, the ship - fuel market, the coking market, and the export market. Seasonal factors also have an impact, although the impact of some markets is limited [20]. - **Downstream Shipment**: From Dec 10 - 16, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 350,000 tons, an 8.9% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 7.7%, a 1.3% week - on - week decrease and a 0.6% year - on - year increase [25]. 3.3.2 Supply - **Supply Pattern**: The supply of asphalt comes from domestic refineries (including state - owned and local refineries) and imports (from countries like South Korea and Singapore). The main supply indicators include inventory, production start - up, production profit, maintenance plans, and monthly production schedules [26]. - **Output, Maintenance, and Raw Materials**: In January 2026, the planned production volume of domestic asphalt refineries was 1.058 million tons, a 12.4% month - on - month decrease and a 21.5% year - on - year decrease. As of Dec 18, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 635,000 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to Dec 15. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.023 million tons, a 0.6% decrease compared to Dec 15 [29]. - **Start - up**: There are charts showing the weekly start - up rates of 77 major asphalt refineries in different regions over the years [32][33][35]. - **Inventory**: There are charts showing the weekly inventory rates of asphalt refineries and the asphalt market in different regions over the years [41].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：宏观水温舒适；白银：稳步爬升 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银偏强 价格区间：960-1000元/克、14500-16000元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落0.22%，伦敦银回升1.98%。金银比从前周的66.6回落至65.9，10年期TIPS回升至1.92%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.16%（2年期3.48%），美元指数录得98.7。 ◆ 本周贵金属价格继续上行，周五再度创出新高，COMEX白银突破67美元/盎司，沪银触及15769元/千克，COMEX黄金则是再摸 4409美元/盎司高位。宏观层面本周进一步释放压力，非农数据失业率出现明显回升，同时CPI显著回落，使得利率进 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic of the nickel futures was the pressure of oversupply and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgical projects. The Indonesian news has weakened the confidence of short - sellers, and short - covering has led to a recovery in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. However, the expected increase in the supply of low - cost hydrometallurgical paths in the long - term still exists, which restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradiction of stainless steel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian quota and resource tax policies increase the uncertainty of ferronickel costs. If the quota policy is implemented, it is expected to turn the contradiction of nickel element oversupply into a shortage. The implementation of the resource tax still depends on the pricing model of associated resources in Indonesia, and it will moderately increase the cost. The fundamentals of stainless steel show a slight oversupply, with a good bottom safety margin, but the upward driving force depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News Analysis - The Indonesian government has urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and the market rumor is that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. According to calculations, the nickel ore demand in Indonesia from 2024 - 2026 is expected to be 250 million, 280 million, and 300 million tons respectively. A 2.5 - billion - ton quota may lead to a shortage of nickel ore, force smelters to cut production, and turn the expected surplus of primary nickel into a shortage, which will also have a great impact on the existing high inventory. However, the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - The Indonesian government may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore in the first half of the year theoretically increased the smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton. The impact of including cobalt in the tax system on cost depends on the base - price formula for cobalt determined by Indonesia. The cost increase should not be over - estimated. However, it may have a negative impact on pyrometallurgical enterprises and bring uncertainty to the pricing model of low - grade hydrometallurgical ore [2]. 3.2 Market Quotes - Nickel: The short - term support for nickel prices has increased, but the upward space depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. The expected increase in the supply of low - cost hydrometallurgical paths in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of ferronickel costs. The current supply and demand pattern shows a slight oversupply, with a good bottom safety margin, and the upward driving force depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons. Among them, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 2,352 tons to 37,602 tons, spot inventory decreased by 2,071 tons to 15,416 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,970 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by +1, - 1, and 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on December 19 changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory on December 18 remained unchanged at 6.9 days [5]. - Ferronickel - stainless steel: On November 30, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 610,282 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 431,866 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73% [5]. 3.4 Market News - On September 12, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a nickel mining area of over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel. The area accounts for 0.3% of the total mining area, and the expected impact on nickel ore production is about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit a claim plan and provide a claim guarantee until 2025 [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of the work plan and budget for mineral and coal mining business activities and the procedures for activity implementation reports [7]. - On October 10, US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [8]. - According to SMM news, the safety production inspection in Indonesian industrial parks has affected the short - term production of some nickel hydrometallurgical projects, with an expected impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [10]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran prompted investors to raise the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [10]. - On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to implement an export license management system for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [10]. - Market rumors suggest that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10].

铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年12月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：再度上攻22000关口，关注突破有效性 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 ◆ 今年4季度迄今市场对于铝金属颇具想象力的定价逻辑，在2026年将得以延续。2026年依然倾向看铝金属表需同比增速的进一步走低， 但基于全球供给端仍维持低速增长的概率偏大，对于铝价单边方向、铝厂冶炼利润、铝价波动率三个维度，我们将继续保持乐观思路。 明年对原铝需求侧的评估已经迎来一个拐点之年——即，我们在估算主流三大需求板块："地基电"、出口、"光、车"的基础上， 亟需对AI及电力相关的消费领域例如算力中心、储能、电网、机器人、军工、铝代铜等进行更有颗粒度的用铝估算。尽管以上消费领 域的需求基数仍较小，但依赖每块 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: December 21, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the short term, it enters a volatile pattern. The previous continuous rise was due to the improvement of butadiene fundamentals and strong expectations for the far - month. However, this week, due to the marginal weakening of overall fundamentals of butadiene and synthetic rubber and the large premium of futures over spot, the speculative nature of futures prices has weakened, leading to a correction. But due to the strong expectations of butadiene still bringing some speculation, it enters a volatile pattern in the short term [4][5] - **Butadiene**: In the short term, the relatively low absolute price drives downstream periodic replenishment, and the trading situation improves. Overall, butadiene rebounds in the short term, but there is still high - supply pressure in the medium term [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Synthetic Rubber 3.1.1 Supply - **Production**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber this cycle is 30,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 7.89%, and the capacity utilization rate is 76.26%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points. Next cycle, it is expected that there will be limited changes in domestic butadiene rubber plants [4] - **Cost and Profit**: The theoretical static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 10,300 - 11,100 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to move up slightly. The valuation logic has switched from cost - side support to NR - BR spread support [4] - **Inventory**: As of December 17, 2025, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory is 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [4] 3.1.2 Demand - **Tire Demand**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises has decreased slightly. Currently, the shipment rhythm of each enterprise is slow, the finished product inventory continues to rise, and under the pressure of production and sales, enterprises continue to control production flexibly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will continue to operate weakly next cycle [4] - **Substitute Demand**: Currently, the spread between NR - BR main contracts remains at a high level, and the substitute demand remains at a high level. Therefore, the overall demand side of butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate [4] 3.2 Butadiene 3.2.1 Supply - **Production**: This cycle (from December 12 to December 18, 2025), the estimated weekly output of Chinese butadiene industry sample enterprises is 112,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the previous cycle, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87%. Next week, it is expected that the weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises will be about 112,600 tons, a slight increase compared with this cycle [7] - **Capacity Expansion**: To match the expansion of downstream industries such as ABS, SBS, styrene - butadiene, and butadiene rubber, butadiene is also in a state of continuous expansion, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries in stages [14][16] 3.2.2 Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: In the medium term, the operating rates of butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain at a high level, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. In the short term, with the reduction of butadiene rubber plant overhauls in December, it is expected that the rigid demand for butadiene in synthetic rubber will increase [9] - **ABS**: The inventory pressure is relatively large, and it is expected that the demand for butadiene will only maintain a constant level, with limited incremental demand [9] - **SBS**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and it maintains rigid demand for butadiene, with little change [9] 3.2.3 Inventory - This cycle (from December 11 to December 17, 2025), the domestic butadiene inventory has fluctuated slightly, and the total sample inventory has increased by 0.49% compared with last week. Among them, the sample enterprise inventory has increased by 0.73% compared with last week, and the sample port inventory has increased by 0.28% compared with last week [9]