Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - The LLDPE market is facing challenges with limited valuation support due to factors such as partial production conversion in full - density, weakening demand, and potential supply - demand pressure from high - capacity and reduced demand [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The L2605 contract had a yesterday's closing price of 6320, a daily decline of 2.41%, a trading volume of 840011, and an open - interest change of 36438 [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 05 - contract basis was - 50 yesterday compared to - 76 the day before, and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 47 yesterday compared to - 38 the day before [1]. - **Spot Prices**: In the North, the spot price was 6270 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 6400 yuan/ton the day before); in the East, it was 6400 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 6500 yuan/ton the day before); in the South, it was 6400 yuan/ton yesterday (down from 6430 yuan/ton the day before) [1]. Spot News - The futures price declined under pressure, the market trading atmosphere remained weak. Upstream and futures - cash traders mostly lowered their quotes to meet annual sales targets. Downstream buyers were mostly in a wait - and - see mode. With weakening demand, the industry's willingness to hold inventory was poor, the basis weakened again, and the destocking of warehouse receipts stopped. The offers from the Middle East and the US decreased in volume and were at a premium to the domestic market. Shipments from the Middle East and the US were delayed, and more arrivals are expected in Q1 2026 [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Raw Materials and Monomers**: The price of crude oil, the raw material, fluctuated, and the monomer segment was weakly stable. The supply profits of PE ethylene and ethane were compressed [2]. - **Market and Demand**: The PE futures price oscillated at a low level. The demand for downstream agricultural films weakened marginally, while the packaging film industry maintained rigid demand. After the recent price decline, the willingness of middle - and - downstream players to hold inventory weakened. Upstream producers offered price discounts to sell inventory at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventory, and the basis was weak [2]. - **Supply**: Guangxi Petrochemical gradually resumed production. The current maintenance plan for December is neutral. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is 0 [2].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2][4]. - Copper: Weakening spot market restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a sideways range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][16]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range [2][21]. - Alumina: Continuing to decline [2][21]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][21]. - Platinum: ETF holdings are increasing marginally, and the price center is moving upwards [2][23]. - Palladium: Resumed its upward momentum after a slight retreat [2][23]. - Nickel: Fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and Indonesian policies have increased concerns [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and news about Indonesian nickel mines has caused disturbances [2][27]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamental Data**: Gold T+D closed at 975.82 with a 0.12% daily increase; Comex gold 2602 closed at 4368.70 with a 0.11% increase.沪银2602 closed at 15376 with a -0.93% decrease; Comex silver 2602 closed at 67.395 with a 2.97% increase [4]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**:沪金2602 trading volume was 328,878, an increase of 87,762; open interest was 189,662, a decrease of 7,090.沪银2602 trading volume was 1,904,227, an increase of 332,489; open interest was 337,467, a decrease of 25,935 [4]. - **Inventory**: 沪金 inventory was 91,716 kg, unchanged;沪银 inventory was 899,636 kg, a decrease of 12,528 kg [4]. - **Spread**: Gold T+D to AU2602 spread was -4.08, unchanged; 白银T+D to AG2602 spread was 58, an increase of 1 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 0; silver trend intensity is 0 [6]. Copper - **Fundamental Data**: 沪铜主力合约 closed at 93,180 with a 0.63% daily increase; 伦铜3M电子盘 closed at 11,871 with a 1.22% increase [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪铜指数 trading volume was 314,112, an increase of 25,585; open interest was 631,942, an increase of 9,906. 伦铜3M电子盘 trading volume was 19,401, a decrease of 11,963; open interest was 342,000, a decrease of 2,759 [8]. - **Inventory**: 沪铜 inventory was 45,739, an increase of 1,089; 伦铜 inventory was 160,400, a decrease of 3,875 [8]. - **Spread**: LME copper cash-to -3M spread was 4.73, an increase of 18.62; 现货对期货近月价差 was -160, a decrease of 20 [8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10]. Zinc - **Fundamental Data**: 沪锌主力收盘价 was 23,075 with a 0.17% daily increase; 伦锌3M电子盘收盘价 was 3,078 with a 0.65% increase [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪锌主力成交量 was 88,361, an increase of 2,041; open interest was 86,365, an increase of 2,640. 伦锌成交量 was 8,494, a decrease of 14,475; open interest was 227,461, an increase of 449 [11]. - **Inventory**: 沪锌期货库存 was 45,178, a decrease of 771; LME zinc inventory was 99,900, an increase of 500 [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [13]. Lead - **Fundamental Data**: 沪铅主力收盘价 was 16,880 with a 0.57% daily increase; 伦铅3M电子盘收盘价 was 1,984.5 with a 1.25% increase [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪铅主力成交量 was 56,461, an increase of 25,238; open interest was 62,177, an increase of 6,505. 伦铅成交量 was 5,862, a decrease of 6,084; open interest was 176,668, a decrease of 415 [14]. - **Inventory**: 沪铅期货库存 was 14,187, a decrease of 842; LME lead inventory was 258,625, a decrease of 3,500 [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [14]. Tin - **Fundamental Data**: 沪锡主力合约 closed at 343,040 with a 2.59% daily increase; 伦锡3M电子盘 closed at 42,975 with a 0.13% increase [16]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪锡主力合约 trading volume was 240,305, a decrease of 3,224; open interest was 33,801, a decrease of 107. 伦锡3M电子盘 trading volume was 180, a decrease of 9; open interest was 13,988, an increase of 53 [16]. - **Inventory**: 沪锡 inventory was 7,844, an increase of 242; 伦锡 inventory was 4,645, an increase of 220 [16]. - **Spread**: SMM 1 tin ingot price was 329,900, an increase of 9,900; 现货对期货主力价差 was 3,020, a decrease of 1,780 [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1 [20]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamental Data**: 沪铝主力合约收盘价 was 22,185; 沪氧化铝主力合约收盘价 was 2,500; 铝合金主力合约收盘价 was 21,235 [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪铝主力合约成交量 was 225,621; 沪氧化铝主力合约成交量 was 198,046; 铝合金主力合约成交量 was 4,335 [21]. - **Inventory**: 国内铝锭社会库存 was 56.10 million tons; 上期所铝锭仓单 was 7.62 million tons [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is -1; cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [22]. Platinum and Palladium - **Fundamental Data**: 铂金期货2606 closed at 533.55 with a -1.67% decrease; 钯金期货2606 closed at 480.20 with a 0.76% increase [23]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 广铂 trading volume was 153,911, a decrease of 948; open interest was 38,087, an increase of 2,123. 广钯 trading volume was 108,461, an increase of 38,341; open interest was 15,221, an increase of 1,371 [23]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces) were 3,239,006, an increase of 17,641; palladium ETF holdings (ounces) were 1,126,738, an increase of 162 [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: Platinum trend intensity is 1; palladium trend intensity is 1 [25]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: 沪镍主力（收盘价） was 117,180; 不锈钢主力（收盘价） was 12,720 [27]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: 沪镍主力（成交量） was 210,637; 不锈钢主力（成交量） was 388,060 [27]. - **Industry News**: Indonesian policies and regulations have an impact on the nickel market, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the Indonesian forestry working group and sanctions on mining companies [27][28]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless steel trend intensity is 0 [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the fundamentals of precious metals, including price, trading volume, position, ETF holdings, inventory, and spreads. It also covers macro - and industry - related news [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Fundamental Data - **Price**: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products showed different trends. For example, Comex gold 2602 had a 0.11% increase, while Shanghai gold 2602 had a - 0.06% decrease. Comex silver 2602 rose by 2.97%, and Shanghai silver 2602 fell by 0.93% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume and position of different gold and silver contracts also changed compared to the previous day. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai gold 2602 increased by 87,762, and its position decreased by 7,090 [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: The SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,052.54, and the SLV silver ETF holdings (the day before yesterday) increased by 48 to 16,066.24 [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of gold and silver in different markets also had changes. For example, the inventory of Comex gold (in troy ounces, the day before yesterday) increased by 78,815 to 36,070,160, and the inventory of Shanghai silver decreased by 12,528 to 899,636 [1]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between different gold and silver contracts and products also changed. For example, the spread between gold T + D and AU2602 remained unchanged at - 4.08, and the spread between silver T + D and AG2602 increased by 1 to 58 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The competition for the Fed Chairmanship is intensifying. Waller is reported to have performed "excellently" in the interview and has the support of corporate executives, while Wall Street is lobbying for Warsh, and Trump may shift his focus to the job market [1][4]. - Fed's "third - in - command" Williams said there is no urgent need for further interest - rate cuts, and the November CPI data is somewhat distorted [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and said it would continue to raise rates if the economic and price outlook is achieved. The yen fell more than 1% during trading, and traders bet that the next rate hike may be in September next year [4]. - The Ukrainian delegation held a series of meetings with the US and Europe from Friday to Sunday, and the US envoy said the meetings were "productive." Zelensky said the US proposed a tri - party meeting between Ukraine, Russia, and the US [4]. - The US intercepted a third oil tanker near Venezuelan waters [4]. - The State Council executive meeting emphasized taking proactive measures to ensure a good start for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [4]. - The Cyberspace Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly took action to deal with accounts spreading rumors and providing illegal stock - recommendation services [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of gold is 0, and that of silver is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis of various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, and gives corresponding trend forecasts and trading suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5][7]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5][7]. - **Platinum**: ETF holdings increased marginally, and the price center shifted upward, with a trend strength of 1 [25][27]. - **Palladium**: After a slight retreat, it resumed its upward momentum, with a trend strength of 1 [25][27]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Spot weakness restricts price increases, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9][11]. - **Zinc**: Trading in a sideways range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend strength of 1 [2][17][21]. - **Aluminum**: Trading within a range, with a trend strength of 1; Alumina is continuing to bottom out, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [22][24]. - **Nickel**: The fundamental contradictions have not changed significantly, and concerns about Indonesian policies have increased, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel has weak supply - demand fundamentals and is affected by Indonesian nickel ore news, with a trend strength of 0 [29][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is mainly to short on rallies, with a trend strength of -1 [2][37][40]. - **Polysilicon**: Trading within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][38][40]. - **Iron Ore**: Macro risk appetite has been boosted again, and it is trading at a high level in a volatile range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Macro sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and prices are firm, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][45][47]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sector and fundamentals resonate, and the trend is oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 0; Manganese silicon has a game between long and short sentiments, with a trend strength of 0 [2][49][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Trading in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][52][55]. - **Log**: Trading at a low level in a volatile range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60]. - **Para - Xylene**: The trend is relatively strong, with a trend strength of 1; PTA is strongly supported by cost, with a trend strength of 1; MEG is trading within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][61][65]. - **Rubber**: Trading in a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][68][69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Gradually entering an oscillating pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][73][75]. - **Asphalt**: Trading at a low level in a volatile range, and geopolitical factors should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][76][83]. - **LLDPE**: Some full - density products are switched in production, and valuation support is limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][87][88]. - **PP**: PDH profit has recovered month - on - month, and the trend is weakly oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][89][91]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the later stage, with a trend strength of 0 [2][92][95]. - **Pulp**: Oscillating strongly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][97][99]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend strength of 0 [2][108][109]. - **Methanol**: Oscillating with support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][111][114]. - **Urea**: Trading in an oscillating pattern, with a trend strength of 0 [2][115][118]. - **Styrene**: Oscillating in the short term, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][119]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change, with a trend strength of 0 [2][124][125]. - **LPG**: The short - term trend is weak, with a trend strength of - 1; Propylene has an expectation of supply reduction and demand increase, and the short - term trend has support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][127][131]. - **PVC**: The trend is weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][135][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly trading in an oscillating pattern, with support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil was strong at night, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rebounded slightly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][138]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May rebound in the short term, but overall it is oscillating and bottom - seeking, with a trend strength of 0; Soybean oil is weakly running, and it is difficult to stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [2][166][167][171]. - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, US soybeans slightly declined, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0; Soybean No.1 is oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][172][174]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend strength of 0 [2][175][178]. - **Cotton**: The futures price is oscillating strongly, while the spot trading is light, with a trend strength of 0 [2][179][184]. - **Eggs**: Oscillating and adjusting, with a trend strength of 0 [2][186]. - **Hogs**: The weakness of the spot market is emerging, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][188][193]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills, with a trend strength of 0 [2][195][197]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the delivery opportunities for the 02 contract, maintain rolling short - selling for the 04 contract, and focus on the progress of the peace talks in Gaza for the far - month contracts, with a trend strength of 0 [2][140][155]. Fibers - **Short - Cut Fiber**: Following the raw materials in the short term, with processing fees being compressed, with a trend strength of 0; Bottle chips are following the raw materials in the short term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][156][157]. Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: The strategy is to wait and see, with a trend strength of 0 [2][159]. Aromatics - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating mainly in the short term, with a trend strength of 0 [2][163][164].

2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | 镍：基本面矛盾变化不大，印尼政策增加担忧 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：泰利森新投产，关注需求淡季不淡的预期兑现 | 4 | | 工业硅：逢高做空为主 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 117,180 | 3,240 | 1,590 | -610 | 1,530 | ...

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪交织博弈，走势宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 780. 0 | 2. 5 | 0. 32% | | | ...

郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2512 | 1,630.1 | 0.21% | | 186 | 1,983 | -160 | 0.09 | | 0.06 | | 期货 | EC2602 | 1,719.8 | 3.66% | | 31,624 | 31,507 | -136 | 1.00 | | 0.85 | | | EC2604 | 1,128.8 | 1.66% | | 4,225 | 18,837 | 145 | 0.22 | | 0.20 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 501.3 | | | EC2602-EC2604 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, including important economic data releases and policy events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3]. Key Events and Forecasts December 22 - China's central bank will announce the December 2025 Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values [3]. December 23 - The US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 3.2%, compared to 3.8% in Q2. A slightly lower Q3 rate may mildly boost precious metal futures prices but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices [4]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of November durable goods orders. The expected month - on - month rate is - 1.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%. A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but mildly boost precious metal futures prices [5]. - The Fed will release November industrial output. The expected month - on - month rate is 0.1%, the same as the previous value [7]. - The US Conference Board will release the December consumer confidence index. The expected value is 91.7, higher than the previous value of 88.7. A higher value may suppress precious metal futures prices but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices [8]. December 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - December market prices of important production materials in the circulation field, covering 9 categories and 50 products [9]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20. The expected number is 215,000, lower than the previous value of 224,000. A slightly lower number may mildly boost non - precious industrial product futures prices but suppress precious metal futures prices [10]. - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19. The expected decline is 1.5 million barrels, more than the previous decline of 1.274 million barrels. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11]. December 25 - There will be 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank is expected to conduct an increased - volume roll - over of MLF at 09:25 [12]. December 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to November and for November alone. From January to October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while in October, they increased by 1.9% year - on - year [13].

2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，整体震荡探底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 棉花：期价震荡偏强，现货交投偏淡20251222 | 7 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 9 | | 生猪：现货弱势显现 | 10 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，整体震荡探底 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,292 | -0.91% | 8,276 | -0.19% | | | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, stock index futures first declined and then rose, showing an overall volatile trend. The decline was due to the continuous fall of the US stocks at the beginning of the week under the adjustment of the AI sector, which put pressure on the risk appetite of global stock markets. The subsequent rise was driven by local hot concepts, such as the merger plan of CICC and the expectation of consumption - boosting policies for commercial department stores. The significantly lower - than - expected US CPI data also contributed to the rebound of US stocks, and the resonance of positive internal and external news pushed the market to stop falling and rebound [1]. - In the later stage, the Fed's easing expectation has re - heated up, bringing a positive impact on global risk assets. The US stock market will enter the Christmas season this week with expected lighter trading, and the domestic market will face a relatively quiet news period. If the news - driven changes are small, the market may continue its recent positive state. Some funds may start to gradually layout for 2026, improving the market capital situation. It is expected that the market will be mainly volatile and strong this week, but the upward revision of the Fed's easing expectation may not be enough to trigger a new upward offensive, and the later general trend may still be in a range - bound pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, the Dow Jones Index dropped 0.67% weekly, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% weekly, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.48% weekly. In Europe, the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 2.57% weekly, the German DAX Index rose 0.42% weekly, and the French CAC40 Index rose 1.03% weekly. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 Index dropped 2.61% weekly, and the Hang Seng Index dropped 1.1% weekly [9]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indices have generally risen. Last week, most domestic major indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.03%, and the ChiNext Index dropped 2.26% [11]. - **Industry Performance**: In the CSI 300 Index, sectors such as materials and finance had gains, while information and industry sectors had losses. In the CSI 500 Index, raw materials, consumption and other sectors had gains, and the energy sector had losses [12]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 91 points/114 points, 74 points/45 points, 179 points/251 points, 221 points/294 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF main contract IF2601 is between 4435 and 4663 points; the IH main contract IH2601 is between 2929 and 3064 points; the IC main contract IC2601 is between 6955 and 7422 points; the IM main contract IM2601 is between 7078 and 7555 points [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. 3.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of December 12th, the P/E ratio (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.25 times, the CSI 300 Index was 13.92 times, the SSE 50 Index was 11.73 times, the CSI 500 Index was 32.74 times, and the CSI 1000 Index was 47.13 times [14][16]. 3.4 Market Capital Review - The financing balance of the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in relevant figures. The capital interest rate was stable at a low level last week, and the central bank had a net injection of funds [16][17].