1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend outlooks for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. For example, gold is expected to break new highs, while silver is likely to reach previous highs. Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to a weaker US dollar, and zinc is expected to trade within a range [2][7][14]. - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, central bank policies, and geopolitical events. For instance, weak US JOLTS job openings data has strengthened the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut [7][14][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to break new highs. The trend strength is 2, indicating a strong bullish view. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 814.88, with a daily increase of 1.31%, and the night - session closing price was 821.68, with a night - session increase of 1.40% [2][7][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to reach previous highs. The trend strength is 2, also indicating a strong bullish view. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9820, with a daily decrease of 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 9918.00, with a night - session increase of 1.34% [2][7][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: With the US dollar under pressure, copper prices are firm. The trend strength is 1, suggesting a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,110, with a daily increase of 0.56%, and the night - session closing price was 80260, with a night - session increase of 0.19% [2][13][15]. - **Zinc**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22285, with a daily decrease of 0.18% [2][16][18]. - **Lead**: With continuous inventory reduction, lead prices are supported. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16865, with a daily increase of 0.09% [2][19]. - **Tin**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,120, with a daily decrease of 0.31% [2][22][27]. - **Aluminum**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20710, with a decrease of 10 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The price center is moving down. The trend strength is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2992, with a decrease of 30 compared to the previous day [2][28][29]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamentals and be affected by news - driven sentiment. Stainless steel prices are expected to have narrow - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the closing price of the Stainless Steel main contract was 12,915 [2][31][36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the futures market. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 72,080, with a decrease of 1,200 compared to the previous day [2][37][41]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With warehouse receipt accumulation, the strategy is to short at high prices. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490, with an increase of 20 compared to the previous day [2][42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market news. The trend strength is 1, a moderately bullish view. The closing price of PS2511 was 52,160, with an increase of 285 compared to the previous day [2][43][45]. - **Iron Ore**: Due to repeated macro - expectations, it is expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the futures was 777.0, with an increase of 5.5 and a daily increase of 0.71% [2][46]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,034, with a decrease of 10 and a decrease of 0.33%; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,310, with a decrease of 6 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][48][49]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of Silicon Ferrosilicon 2511 was 5520, with a decrease of 8; the closing price of Manganese Silico - Manganese 2511 was 5720, with a decrease of 10 [2][53][55]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. The trend strength of both is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of JM2601 was 1106, with a decrease of 6.5 and a decrease of 0.6%; the closing price of J2601 was 1594, with a decrease of 2.5 and a decrease of 0.2% [2][56]. - **Log**: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The trend strength is 0, a neutral view. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 775.5, with a daily decrease of 2.8% [2][58][61]. - **Para - Xylene**: The cost has collapsed, and the unilateral trend has weakened. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PX main contract was 6810, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.35% [2][62]. - **PTA**: The strategy is to take a long position in the spread between different months. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4732, with a decrease of 24 and a decrease of 0.50% [2][62]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is weak. The trend strength is not provided. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4331, with a decrease of 8 and a decrease of 0.18% [2][62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Lacks continuous driving forces and is waiting for a correction. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment. The trend strength is not provided [2][61]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to trade friction concerns, US soybeans are weak, while domestic soybean meal is slightly stronger. The trend strength is not provided [2][63]. - **Corn**: Expected to trade within a range. The trend strength is not provided [2][65]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the production and cost in Guangxi. The trend strength is not provided [2][66]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the new crop listing situation. The trend strength is not provided [2][67]. - **Egg**: The near - term trading sentiment is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][69]. - **Live Pig**: The spot market is weak, while the long - term expectation is strong. The trend strength is not provided [2][70]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing. The trend strength is not provided [2][71].

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：缺乏持续驱动，等待回调 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：贸易摩擦担忧，美豆偏弱、连粕略偏强 | 4 | | 豆一：低位震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡运行 | 6 | | 白糖：关注广西产量和成本 | 7 | | 棉花：注意新作上市情况 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：近端博弈情绪偏强 | 10 | | 生猪：现货转弱，远端预期偏强 | 11 | | 花生：关注新花生上市 | 12 | 2025年09月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 4 日 棕榈油：缺乏持续驱动，等待回调 豆油：震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,346 | -0.36% | 9,340 | -0.06% | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View - Crude oil production increase drives a price callback, with a short - term recommendation to wait and see [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral stance [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Brent (ICE) at $69.14/bbl, up $0.99, with a $3.55 premium to WTI; pre - OPEC+ meeting short - covering and peak North Sea oilfield maintenance [2] - WTI (NYMEX) at $65.59/bbl, up $1.58, with Midland at a $1.10 discount; US strategic reserve repurchase starts and Cushing inventory drops 2.8 million barrels weekly [2] - Dubai (Platts) at $71.72/bbl, up $0.84, with a $0.28 premium to Oman; strong Middle - East refinery feed demand and a record high spot premium for November shipments [2] - Murban (ADNOC) at $70.1/bbl, down $1.02, with an official selling price cut of $1.02 to respond to Asian buyers switching to US West Coast crude [2] - Urals (CIF) at $57.91/bbl, up $0.54, at a $11.23 discount to Brent; Indian refineries buy at low prices and Baltic shipments increase 15% month - on - month [2] 3.2 Product Oil Market Price and Dynamics - 92 - octane gasoline (Singapore) has a crack spread of $22/bbl, FOB price of $83.27, and VLCC freight from Persian Gulf to Japan at w64.5 (+15%) [3] - 0.5% low - sulfur marine fuel has a crack spread of $6.93/bbl, FOB price of $492.08, and LR2 freight from Singapore to East China at $2.35m (+12%) [3] - 10ppm diesel has a crack spread of $19/bbl, FOB price of $88.12, and Suezmax freight from Middle - East to West Africa at w107.5 [3] - 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil has a crack spread of - $2.25/bbl, FOB price of $426, and Aframax freight from Singapore to Australia at $1.9m [3] 3.3 Cross - Regional Comparison - Brent - WTI spread is $3.55/bbl due to Cushing inventory decline, compared to an August average of $2.8; US Gulf export facility congestion and closed European arbitrage window [4] - Dubai - Oman spread is $0.28/bbl due to Middle - East OSP cuts, compared to an August average of $0.35; Saudi cuts Asian long - term contracts and intense spot market competition [4] - ESPO - Dubai spread is - $1.41/bbl due to increased Russian exports, compared to an August average of - $0.9; Russian oil companies' new strategy to avoid price limits [4] - Midland - Cushing spread is $1.1/bbl due to pipeline capacity constraints, compared to an August average of $0.85; EPIC pipeline failure leads to over 5 million barrels of backlog in the Permian Basin [4] 3.4 Key Spreads - The closure of Sudan's Heglig oilfield affects Nile Blend crude, with a $2.1/bbl price fluctuation expected to last 2 weeks and a daily production cut of 150,000 barrels [4] - Houthi attacks on tankers affect Middle - East medium - grade crude, with a $1.35/bbl immediate price impact and a 300% increase in Red Sea shipping insurance premiums [4] - INE Shanghai warehouse sanctions affect SC crude oil futures, with a - $3.2/bbl price impact, a 40% drop in open interest, and challenges to the delivery mechanism [4] - US EPIC pipeline expansion is expected to affect WTI Midland, with a - $0.75/bbl impact and a 300,000 - barrel - per - day increase in Permian - to - Gulf of Mexico capacity [4] 3.5突发事件或潜在影响因素 - Cosmo Oil's 100,000 - b/d maintenance from August 27 to early October affects Sakai crude, leading to Japan's gasoline inventory dropping to a 5 - year low and emergency reserve release [5] - Sinopec Zhenhai's 200,000 - b/d maintenance postponed to end - September affects ESPO crude, with Zhoushan commercial crude inventory hitting a record high [5] - BP Rotterdam's 180,000 - b/d maintenance from September 15 to November 10 affects North Sea Forties, widening the European diesel crack spread by $1.2/bbl [5] - Reliance's 660,000 - b/d planned October maintenance affects Middle - East heavy crude, with India's early stockpiling narrowing the Middle - East fuel oil discount [6] 3.6 Other Market News - Citi slightly lowers its 2026 Brent crude average price forecast to $62/bbl (previously $65/bbl) [6] - US API crude inventory data for the week ending August 29: actual 622,000 barrels (expected - 3.4 million, previous - 974,000); Cushing crude inventory actual 2.063 million barrels (previous - 497,000) [8] - White House officials clarify Trump's phone - call reference [8] - Russia will supply oil to Brunei via the Northeast Arctic Passage for the first time [8] - Russia's September western port oil exports are expected to drop 6% to about 1.9 million barrels per day [8] - Trump administration hopes Europe stops buying Russian oil and joins sanctions [8] - OPEC+ will consider further production increases at a Sunday meeting to regain market share, or may pause production increases [8]

Report Overview - Date: September 4, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy by Guotai Junan Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - Nickel: The fundamental logic shows a narrow - range oscillation, and news stimulates sentiment [2] - Stainless steel: Steel prices are running in a narrow - range oscillation [2] - Lithium carbonate: Spot trading has improved, but the continuous increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the market [2] - Industrial silicon: Warehouse receipts are accumulating, and the logic is to short at high prices [2] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of market news [2] 3. Summaries by Commodity Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,915, down 45 from the previous trading day. The trading volume is 87,549, down 43,080 [5] - The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790, down 740. The trading volume is 125,550, down 3,232 [5] Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5] - The first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF has entered the trial - production stage, with an annual output of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal [6] - Environmental violations were found in Indonesia's IMIP, and possible fines may be imposed [7] - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year [7] - The approved RKAB production in Indonesia in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons, higher than in 2024 [7] - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of all EF lines, expected to affect monthly production by about 1,900 tons of nickel metal [7][8] - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [8] - A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance, reducing hot - rolled coil supply [8] - The Indonesian president will crack down on illegal mining [9] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10] Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - The closing price of the 2509 contract is 72,080, down 1,200. The trading volume is 94, down 786. The open interest is 5,571, down 2,123 [11] - The closing price of the 2511 contract is 71,880, down 740. The trading volume is 442,800, down 177,641. The open interest is 346,048, down 2,061 [11] - The warehouse receipt volume is 34,118, up 2,111 [11] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton [12] - In August 2025, Chile's lithium carbonate export volume was 16,900 tons, down 19.2% month - on - month and up 4.9% year - on - year [12] Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 0 [14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - The closing price of the Si2511 contract is 8,490, up 20. The trading volume is 275,841, down 69,772. The open interest is 279,742, down 1,738 [16] - The closing price of the PS2511 contract is 52,160, up 285. The trading volume is 362,759, down 168,019. The open interest is 149,210, up 3,355 [16] - Industrial silicon social inventory is 54.1 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.5 million tons. The futures warehouse receipt inventory is 25.2 million tons [16] - Polysilicon factory inventory is 21.3 million tons [16] Macro and Industry News - Inner Mongolia's Wulatezhongqi plans to invest 4 billion yuan in 2025 and 22 billion yuan during the 15th Five - Year Plan in new energy projects [18] Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 0; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [18]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core View The core view of the report is that for stock index options, as the volatility decreases during the downward trend, long - position investors can consider selling call options for hedging [1]. Summary by Category 1. Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of most indexes and ETFs decreased, with varying degrees of decline in trading volume. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4459.83, down 30.62 points, and its trading volume was 254.32 billion hands, a decrease of 49.61 billion hands [2]. - **Option Market Statistics**: There were different changes in option trading volume, open interest, VL - PCR, OI - PCR, and maximum positions for calls and puts. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options was 181,996, a decrease of 8,859, and the open interest was 226,889, an increase of 3,849 [2]. - **Option Volatility Statistics**: ATM - IV of most options decreased, while the changes in HV were diverse. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index options (near - month) was 18.23%, a decrease of 1.74% [5]. 2. Option Charts - **Shanghai 50 Index Options**: Include charts of full - contract PCR, main - contract skewness, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [9]. - **Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index Options**: Include similar charts as Shanghai 50 index options, such as full - contract PCR, main - contract skewness, etc. [13]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Include relevant charts like main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, etc. [16]. - **ETF Options**: For various ETF options such as Shanghai 50ETF, Huatai - Baorui 300ETF, etc., there are also corresponding charts of main - contract volatility, full - contract PCR, and other indicators [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is accumulating too quickly, and steel prices are fluctuating and correcting [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,047 yuan/ton and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of -0.49% and -0.48%. The trading volumes were 244,899 lots and 124,871 lots, and the positions were 807,407 lots and 546,834 lots, with position changes of -52,001 lots and -27,387 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hangzhou and Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 18 yuan/ton, while that of HC2510 increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, HC2601 - RB2601, and the spot coil-to-rebar spread changed by 6 yuan/ton, -5 yuan/ton, -18 yuan/ton, -7 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Export Data**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month, with an average export price of 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the average export price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - **Weekly Data on August 28**: In terms of production, rebar increased by 5.91 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.5 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 6.55 million tons. In terms of inventory, rebar increased by 16.35 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.02 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 26.84 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 9.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.55 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 4.78 million tons [2][3] - **Mid - August Data**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2115 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 211.5 million tons, a daily increase of 2.0%; 1924 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily increase of 0.5%; 2049 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 204.9 million tons, a daily increase of 2.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 1567 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [3] - **Other Data**: The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [2][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]

Report Information - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [1][4][9][12][15][17][22][25][26] - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Gold is expected to break through new highs; silver is expected to reach the previous high [2][4] - Copper prices are rising due to improved market sentiment [2][9] - Zinc is expected to trade in a range [2][12] - Lead prices are supported by continuous inventory reduction [2][15] - Tin is expected to trade in a range [2][17] - Aluminum is expected to be moderately strong with fluctuations; alumina is expected to trade in a range; attention should be paid to the progress of policy implementation for cast aluminum alloy [2][22] - Nickel's fundamentals suggest narrow - range fluctuations, while news may stimulate market sentiment; stainless - steel prices are expected to move in a narrow range [2][26] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals Gold - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 804.32 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 813.00 with a 1.08% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2510 decreased by 114,740 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 2,067 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 13 to 990.56, and the Shanghai Gold inventory increased by 447 to 40,191 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Silver - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9824 with a 0.52% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 9836.00 with a 0.01% increase [5] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2510 decreased by 336,732 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 12,097 [5] - **ETF and Inventory**: The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) increased by 56 to 15,366.48, and the Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 8001 to 1,215,228 kilograms [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Silver trend intensity is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [7] Base Metals Copper - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,660 with a - 0.15% daily decrease, and the night - session closing price was 80410 with a 0.94% increase [9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 16,804 compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 579 [9] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 699 to 19,501 tons. Free Port's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik plant in early September [9][11] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [11] Zinc - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22325 with a 0.68% daily increase, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2833 with a 0.68% increase [12] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 14018, and the LME Zinc trading volume decreased by 5760 [12] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 998 to 38955 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 275 to 55600 tons. Eurozone inflation slightly rebounded in August [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [13][14] Lead - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16850 with a - 0.03% daily decrease, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - disk closing price was 2007 with a 0.50% increase [15] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 2369, and the LME Lead trading volume decreased by 2581 [15] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreased by 373 to 56428 tons, and the LME Lead inventory decreased by 1525 to 258025 tons [15] - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [15] Tin - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 273,980 with a 0.27% daily increase, and the night - session closing price was 274,130 with a - 0.08% decrease [18] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 75,860, and the open interest decreased by 1,036 [18] - **Inventory and News**: The Shanghai Tin inventory increased by 48 to 7,263 tons, and the LME Tin inventory increased by 20 to 2,175 tons [18] - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [21] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20720, and the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3022 [22] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased by 55120, and the open interest decreased by 7232 [22] - **Inventory and News**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 61.60 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory was 47.96 million tons [22] - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0, indicating a neutral view [24] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - **Price Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,530, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,960 [26] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 43,115, and the stainless - steel main contract decreased by 34,264 [26] - **Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production [26][28][29] - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are both 0, indicating a neutral view [31]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The significant decline in the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans has a positive impact on the soybean meal market [1]. - The soybean No.1 market shows a rebound and oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the overall atmosphere of the soybean market [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No.1 2511 closed at 3970 yuan/ton during the day session, up 9 yuan (+0.23%), and 3968 yuan/ton during the night session, down 1 yuan (-0.03%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton during the day session, down 10 yuan (-0.33%), and 3056 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged (+0.00%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1040 cents/bushel, down 13 cents (-1.23%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 283.3 dollars/short ton, down 5.4 dollars (-1.87%) [1]. - **Spot Basis**: In Shandong, the spot basis of soybean meal is M2601 + 40/+50/+80, with some adjustments compared to the previous day; in East China, it is relatively stable; in South China, there are also various basis levels and adjustments [1]. - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 13.45 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared with 11.4 million tons two days ago; the inventory was 101.49 million tons per week, compared with 98.55 million tons two weeks ago [1]. Macro and Industry News - On September 2, CBOT soybean futures closed lower, hitting the lowest level in a week and a half. The reasons include China's lack of interest in US new-season soybeans and improved rainfall in the Midwest, which is beneficial for the growth of late-sown crops [3]. - The US - China trade negotiation has made limited progress recently, and China's hosting of a non - Western leaders' summit has further dampened the optimistic sentiment for the demand of new - crop soybeans [3]. - The increased rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may improve the growth of late - stage crops and strengthen the expectation of a bumper harvest, putting downward pressure on soybean prices [3]. - As of August 31, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, down from 69% a week ago and the same as last year's 65%. Analysts had expected 68% before the report [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and that of soybean No.1 is +1, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts in the day session on the report day [3].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 09 月 03 日 铜：市场情绪回暖，价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,660 | -0.15% | 80410 | 0.94% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,014 | 1.40% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜主力合约 | 61,677 | -16,804 | 180,065 | -579 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 26,784 | 16,271 | 278,000 | 8,630 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 19,501 | -699 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 158,775 | -100 | 8.23% | -0.06% | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the energy - chemical sector show different trends. For example, PX is in a tight - balance supply - demand situation with positive spreads; PTA has a slightly upward - trending price with limited downside; MEG is weakly oscillating; rubber and paper pulp are oscillating; synthetic rubber has short - term support; asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events; LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating; PP has long - term pressure; etc. [2][10][11] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: 11 - 01 positive spread, 1 - 5 negative spread. Long PX and short EB. Buy on dips before mid - September. Supply will marginally increase in September, but PX supply - demand remains in a tight - balance due to upcoming PTA new production [5][10]. - **PTA**: Unilateral price is slightly upward - trending with limited downside. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Polyester sales are weak, but there is still demand for procurement and restocking [10]. - **MEG**: Unilateral price is weakly oscillating. Reduce short positions. Partially stop profiting from long PTA and short MEG. Hold 1 - 5 negative spread. Supply is expected to increase after October, while demand is weak [11]. Rubber - Rubber is oscillating. Most tire listed companies' revenues increased in H1 2025, but profits declined. In Q3, raw material prices rose, and tire companies' profits were squeezed. Domestic demand is weak, and inventory reduction is slow [12][16][17]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is short - term oscillating with support. The upper limit is pressured by high supply and inventory, and the lower limit is supported by anti - involution policies. It mainly fluctuates with macro - sentiment this week [18][20]. Asphalt - Asphalt is strengthened by geopolitical events. The US - Venezuela situation is tense. This week's domestic asphalt production decreased, and both factory and social inventories decreased [21][31][35]. LLDPE - LLDPE is short - term weak and medium - term oscillating. PE demand is improving due to the approaching peak season for the agricultural film industry. Recently, commodity sentiment has declined, and futures are weak. Supply remains stable in September, and inventory pressure is not significant [36][37]. PP - PP is short - term oscillating and long - term pressured. Short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is weak. Supply pressure will increase as maintenance devices resume production and new capacity comes online [40][41]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is widely oscillating. The main obstacle to price increase is export. Domestic demand is stable, and non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season. The key lies in the production start - up rhythm in Guangxi [44][46]. Pulp - Pulp is oscillating. The pulp market showed a mild recovery yesterday. The supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly, and port inventory is high. Attention should be paid to port inventory reduction and downstream price increases [50][53]. Glass - Glass original sheet prices are stable. The short - term supply - demand situation has little change, and the mid - and downstream maintain a rigid procurement rhythm [55][56]. Methanol - Methanol is short - term rebounding and medium - term oscillating. The short - term is supported by the September 3rd parade event. The mid - term will return to the fundamental trading logic. Port inventory is high, but the price downside is limited [58][61][62]. Urea - Urea is short - term rebounding and medium - term pressured. It may be strengthened by macro - sentiment in the short term, but it is under pressure due to high inventory and high premium in the medium term [64][65][66]. Styrene - Styrene is medium - term bearish. After the end of anti - involution speculation, the long - short contradiction is accumulating. The industry still has high expectations for the peak season, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak [67][68]. Soda Ash - Soda ash spot market has little change. The domestic market is weakening, with a decline in comprehensive production and sluggish downstream demand [69][71]. LPG, Propylene - **LPG**: Macro risks are increasing, and crude oil costs are rising. The short - term trend is affected by factors such as CP paper prices and device maintenance [74][79]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are supported, but there is a risk of decline. Attention should be paid to factors such as the spread with futures and device maintenance [74]. PVC - PVC is under pressure. The supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The "alkali - chlorine compensation" model reduces the motivation for production reduction [82]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It turned down at night and may continue to be weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term [84]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fluctuations intensify, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market has risen significantly [84]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is widely oscillating. Freight rates show different trends, and the supply of shipping capacity also has corresponding changes [86].