2026 年 02 月 05 日 短纤：短期震荡市 20260205 瓶片：短期震荡市 20260205 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2603 | ୧୧୧୦ | ୧୧୦୦ | 60 | PF03-04 | -70 | -54 | -16 | | PF | 短纤2604 | 6630 | 6554 | 76 | PF04-05 | 0 | 22 | -22 | | | 短纤2605 | ୧୧30 | 6532 | 68 | PF主力基差 | -55 | 6 | -61 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 167741 | 236959 | -69218 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6,575 | 6, 560 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 113875 | 129379 | -15504 | 短纤产销率 | 57% | 57% | 0% | | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The pulp market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The supply - side port inventory pressure persists, and the demand - side purchasing activities slow down significantly due to the approaching Spring Festival. The market has entered the holiday mode in advance with narrowed volatility, waiting for new guidance after the festival. The short - term price of the tissue paper market is likely to remain stable [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of pulp's main contract was 5,324 yuan/ton (up 48 from the previous day), and the night - session closing price was 5,312 yuan/ton (up 30). The trading volume was 210,175 lots (up 4,218), the open interest was 279,509 lots (up 536), and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 142,447 tons. The net position of the top 20 members increased by 2,062 to - 18,283 lots [3]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Silver Star - futures main contract decreased by 48 to - 4, and that of Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard) decreased by 48 to - 724. The monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 increased by 2 to - 28 [3]. - **Spot Market**: The domestic prices of coniferous pulp such as Northwood, Cariboo, and Silver Star were 5,550 yuan/ton, 5,500 yuan/ton, and 5,320 yuan/ton respectively. The international price of Silver Star was 710 dollars/ton. The domestic prices of broad - leaf pulp like Golden, Star, and others were around 4,600 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star was 590 dollars/ton. The price of chemimechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural pulp (Venus) was 4,950 yuan/ton with an international price of 620 dollars/ton [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]. 3.2 Industry News - The pulp supply - demand fundamentals did not change significantly. The port inventory pressure on the supply side continued, and the purchasing activities of downstream paper mills and traders slowed down due to the approaching Spring Festival. The market price lacked a clear direction, and most industry players adopted a wait - and - see attitude. The tissue paper market price was stable, with general trading enthusiasm. The raw material pulp market was consolidating, and the short - term tissue paper price was likely to be stable, mainly depending on raw material pulp prices and paper mill equipment operation [4][5].

2026 年 2 月 5 日 低硫燃料油：夜盘偏强震荡，外盘现货高低硫 价差仍处历史低位 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 燃料油：回弹走势为主，短期弱势暂缓 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日 涨跌 | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2. 797 | | 3.55% | 2.776 | 3. 20% | | | | FU2604 | 元/中 | 2. 791 | | 3.20% | 2.770 | 3.01% | | | | LU2603 | 元/吨 | 3, 276 | | 3.02% | 3.252 | 2.62% | | | | LU2604 | 元/吨 | 3. 268 | | 2.62% | 3.246 | 2. 69% | | | | | a | 昨日成交 | | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2603 | ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 生猪：旺季不旺，预计节前难以消化压力 | 周小球 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | wuhao8@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | 12330 | | -300 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | 11750 | | -250 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | 12260 | | -200 | | | 期 货 | | 单 位 | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | 11150 | | -10 | | | | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | 11735 | | 135 | | | | 生猪2607 | 元/吨 | 12295 | | 125 | | | | | 单 位 ...

【宏观及行业新闻】 3. 【关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知】2026 年 1 月 30 日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局发布 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 动力煤：印尼减产消息刺激进口市场，国内煤价节 前仍以稳为主 樊园园 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023682 fanyuanyuan@gtht.com 1. 【基本面跟踪】 动力煤基本面数据 指 标 单 位 本 期 环 比 同比去年 山西大同5500 元/吨 568.0 0.0 -42.0 内蒙古鄂尔多斯5500 元/吨 532.0 0.0 -27.0 产地价格 | | 澳大利亚FOB Q5500 | 美元/吨 | 75.9 | 0.0 | -3.1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2月长协价格 | 港口Q5500 | 元/吨 | 680.0 | -4.0 | -11.0 | | | 山西Q5500 | 元/吨 | 517.0 | -23.0 | —— | | | 陕西Q5500 | 元/吨 | 461.0 | -22.0 | —— | | | 蒙西Q5500 | 元/吨 | 431.0 | ...

2026 年 02 月 05 日 品 研 究 工业硅：下方空间不深 多晶硅：行业会议情绪积极，或提振盘面 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,850 | 35 | 90 | 120 -62,906 | | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 208,226 | -48,015 | -35,488 | | | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 241,016 | 6,216 | 5,333 | 23,724 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 51,195 | 1,195 | 390 | - | | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 13,013 | -5,284 | 4,652 | - | | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 棉花：预计保持震荡走势 20260205 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 国内棉花现货概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，棉花现货整体交投尚可，低基差成交较好，基差整体偏 稳。山东、河南库 2025/26 南北疆机采 3130/30，马值 4 以上，杂 3 内主流基差多在 CF05+1600- 1750，部分棉商上调基差 20 左右，内地自提；2025/26 南疆喀什机采 3129/29B 杂 3.5 内马值 4 以上较 多销售基差在 CF05+1000 及以上，少量低于该价，不含淡点污，疆内自提。 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱市场交易活跃度逐步降低，价格整体持稳。随着 下游放假增多，内地纺企多以完成现有订单、安排春节假期为主。当前常规纱品类低价货源减少，低支纱 成交清淡；进口纱现货市场走货相对顺畅，局部交投较好，整体平淡偏多。 美棉概况：昨日 ICE 棉花期货继续下跌，目前近月合约的情况和去年同期类似， ...

2026 年 02 月 05 日 橡胶：震荡运行 20260205 | | 高琳琳 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 | gaolinlin@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 表 1：基本面数据 | | | | | | 】Fl | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 刚 | 受初幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 385 | 16. 180 | +205 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 325 | 16, 310 | +15 | | | | 成交量（手） | 245, 413 | 254, 278 | -8, 865 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量（手） | 159, 917 | 153, 505 | +6, 412 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 111.570 | 110. 870 | +700 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 31, 124 | 31, 640 | - ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 05 日 焦炭：高位震荡 焦煤：高位震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1209 | 41.5 | 3.6% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1770 | રેર | 3.2% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1608640 | 518681 | 84246 | | | | 12605 | 26575 | 39720 | 3883 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 吕梁低硫主佳 | 1600 1483 | 1600 1483 | 0 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主焦煤 | 1243 | 1243 | O | | | | 吕梁中硫肥煤 | ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 商 品 研 究 原料端原油价格大幅回落，中东地缘局势难定，乙烯单体环节偏弱，PE 乙烯工艺利润有所修复。PE 盘 面前期持续反弹，成交多集中中游，下游暂未追涨补货。近端下游农膜有转弱，包装膜行业刚需维持。供应 端，巴斯夫湛江逐步试产，2 月目前检修计划环比下滑，部分 FD 回切标品，春节前仍需关注存量高产能和 需求转弱带来的供需压力。 LLDPE：进口缩窄递盘有限，海外裂解重组继 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 货 期 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6918 | 0.77% | 481865 | 17366 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -188 | | -185 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -57 | | -51 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | ...