Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side disturbances in the copper market limit the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 105,160 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 102,590 with a decline of 2.44%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,040 with a decline of 2.76% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 471,921, a decrease of 274,488 from the previous day, and the open interest was 617,249, an increase of 11,759. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,322, a decrease of 12,365, and the open interest was 322,000, an increase of 6,542 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,772, an increase of 751, and the LME Copper inventory was 178,650, an increase of 2,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.83%, a decrease of 8.22% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 64.25, a decrease of 5.08 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,900, an increase of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, an increase of 20 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US ISM manufacturing index in January rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, significantly higher than market expectations. President Trump urged the House Republicans to cooperate with the Democrats to reopen the federal government [1]. - **Industry**: Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Capstone Copper resumed the operation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec and reduced investment in the copper refinery in the medium term [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

2026 年 2 月 5 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：国泰君安期货、同花顺、Mysteel、SMM 【宏观及行业新闻】 1）印度尼西亚政府已通过OSS平台暂停发放新的冶炼许可证。这项限制措施特别针对计划生产Nickel matte、混合氢氧化物沉淀物（"MHP"）、铁镍（"FeNi"）和镍生铁（"NPI"）的项目——这些产品统称为 "受限制产品"。 2）新华社 12 月 12 日从商务部获悉，商务部、海关总署日前印发公告，决定对部分钢铁产品实施出口 许可证管理。公告自 2026 年 1 月 1 日起执行。 3）根据钢联，印尼镍矿商协会 (APNI) 透露，能源和矿产资源部（ESDM）将于 2026 年初修订镍矿商 品的基准价格公式，修订要点之一是政府将开始将镍的伴生矿钴视为独立商品并征收特许权使用费。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "Oscillating and Consolidating" [1] 2. Core View - The report provides comprehensive data on the tin market, including price movements, trading volumes, inventory levels, and key industrial prices. The trend strength of tin is rated as 0, indicating a neutral stance [1][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,080 with a daily increase of 5.03%, and the night - session closing price was 379,270 with a decrease of 3.41%. - The price of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk futures was 48,360 with a decrease of 3.85% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 319,493, a decrease of 53,942 from the previous day, and the open interest was 35,914, an increase of 481. - The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic - disk was 616, a decrease of 523, and the open interest was 25,406, an increase of 155 [2] - **Inventory Data**: - The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 7,411, a decrease of 377. - The inventory of LME Tin was 7,110, an increase of 15, and the注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Spread Data**: - The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 395,050, an increase of 13,150. - The Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price was 395,500, an increase of 18,100. - The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread was - 241, an increase of 59. - The spread between the near - month contract and the consecutive - first contract was 194,960, unchanged. - The spread between the spot and the futures main contract was 12,160, an increase of 27,410 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: - The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 381,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 385,050, an increase of 13,150. - The price of 63A solder bar was 261,250, an increase of 8,000. - The price of 60A solder bar was 250,250, an increase of 8,000 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - President Xi Jinping had a phone call with former US President Donald Trump. - Negotiations between Iran and the US will be held in Oman on the 6th. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association stated that space photovoltaic technology is still in the initial stage of exploration and verification. - NASDAQ plans to introduce a "fast - track inclusion" rule to handle large - scale IPOs such as SpaceX [4] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend strength values being in the [- 2,2] integer interval, where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Weakening in a fluctuating manner [1] - Alumina: Trading in a range [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, spreads, and inventory levels [1]. - It also provides the trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, with aluminum and aluminum alloy at 0 (neutral), and alumina at -1 (weakly bearish) [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market Electrolytic Aluminum - Shanghai Aluminum main contract: The closing price was 23,955, down 1685 from T - 5; trading volume was 451,208, down 485,903 from T - 5; open interest was 224,756, down 138,077 from T - 5 [1]. - LME Aluminum 3M: The closing price was 3059, down 205 from T - 5; trading volume was 24,872, down 22,559 from T - 5; LME注销仓单占比 was 11.01%, up 5.90% from T - 5 [1]. Alumina - Shanghai Alumina main contract: The closing price was 2824, up 13 from T - 5; trading volume was 420,118, down 453,523 from T - 5; open interest was 375,698, down 91,018 from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum alloy main contract: The closing price was 22,595, down 1190 from T - 5; trading volume was 8206, down 15,184 from T - 5; open interest was 4530, down 4315 from T - 5 [1]. Spot Market Electrolytic Aluminum - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 82.90 million tons, up 3.30 million tons from T - 5; the SHFE aluminum ingot warehouse receipt was 15.03 million tons, up 0.75 million tons from T - 5; the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 49.52 million tons, down 0.48 million tons from T - 5 [1]. - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 7524.75, up 470.00 from T - 1 [1]. Alumina - The domestic average alumina price was 2646, down 2 from T - 5; the alumina price at Lianyungang's CIF was 330 US dollars/ton, unchanged from T - 5 [1]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 theoretical profit was 380, down 60 from T - 1; the Baotai ADC12 price was 23,200, up 200 from T - 1 [1]. Others - The price of Shaanxi ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) was 2275, down 50 from T - 1 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The outlooks range from narrow or wide fluctuations to high-level oscillations, with some commodities showing potential for price increases or being affected by specific news events [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Outlook**: Expected to experience a tug-of-war between expectations and realities, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rose slightly, with the I2605 contract closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%. Spot prices for most imported and domestic ores increased slightly, while some remained unchanged. Basis and spread values showed minor fluctuations [4]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide fluctuations [2][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for RB2605 and HC2605 rose slightly, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with minor price adjustments in a few areas. Basis and spread values also showed minor fluctuations [7]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data for January 29th showed mixed trends. Some steel product prices and production volumes had year-on-year changes.必和必拓's first-half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted price cuts in some contracts. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts showed small increases. Spot prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had some adjustments, and various price spreads also changed [12]. - **News**: The proportion of coal-fired power generation fixed costs recovered through capacity tariffs will be increased. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices and procurement data were reported, and electricity prices in some regions changed. South Africa's manganese ore exports increased in December 2025 [11][13]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate at high levels [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for JM2605 and J2605 rose significantly, with trading volumes and open interest showing increases. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some price increases. Basis and spread values showed significant changes [14]. - **News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices decreased slightly. Coking coal online auctions had a 26% failure rate, with an average premium of 19.33 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [16]. Thermal Coal - **Outlook**: Indonesian production cut news has stimulated the import market, but domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed some fluctuations, with some prices remaining unchanged and others decreasing [19]. - **News**: The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity tariff mechanism. The North Port market sentiment was slightly stronger, but trading was light. Indonesian coal production cuts may support low-calorie coal prices, but the actual scale is yet to be confirmed [20]. Logs - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise slightly [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for log contracts showed small increases, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices for most log varieties remained stable, with some showing minor price increases [21]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [23]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 (slightly bullish) [24].

2026 年 2 月 5 日 硅铁：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 锰硅：基本面与情绪面博弈，宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 期货研究 商 品 研 究 硅铁、锰硅基本面数据 期货合约 收盘价 较前一交易日 成交量 持仓量 硅铁2603 5654 3 4 93,117 89,527 硅铁2605 5644 3 8 90,122 129,808 锰硅2603 5828 2 8 20,117 58,065 锰硅2605 5868 3 2 118,851 354,221 价 格 较前一交易日 单 位 5350 - 元/吨 5650 -30.0 元/吨 42.7 - 元/吨度 745 - 元/吨 硅铁（现货-03期货） -304 -34 元/吨 锰硅（现货-03期货） -178 -58 元/吨 硅铁2603-2605 ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 碳酸锂：关注今日市场情绪变化 | | 邵婉嫕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 张 | 航 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 | zhanghang2@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） | 147,220 | -880 | -19,060 | -19,520 | 17,240 | 66,480 | | | | 2605合约（成交量） | 311,897 | -307,645 | -161,326 | -64,521 | -31,726 | 231,579 | | | | 2605合约（持仓量） | 359,912 | 4,14 ...

2026 年 2 月 5 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：上行驱动有限，关注成本端扰动 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 | 4,251 | 1.36% | 4,210 | -0.96% | | 2603 | 63,145 | -9,415 | 60,675 | -4,471 | | | | 2604 | 4,516 | 1.55% | 4,500 | -0.35% | PG | 2604 | 25,787 | 638 | 66,710 | 2,990 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4,425 ...

2026年02月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：关注今日市场情绪变化 | 4 | | 工业硅：下方空间不深 | 6 | | 多晶硅：行业会议情绪积极，或提振盘面 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 5 日 镍：宏观情绪主导边际，基本面与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，镍铁预期托底下方 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 137,680 | 2,850 | -6,690 | -5,380 | 3,58 ...

2026 年 02 月 05 日 白糖：广西产糖率大幅下降 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 14.44 | -0.19 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 46 | 31 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5290 | 0 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -4 | 6 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5210 | 43 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 80 | -43 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：截至 1 月 15 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 22%。巴西 12 月出口 291 万吨，同比增 加 2.9%。中国 12 月进口食糖 58 万吨（+19 万吨）。截至 1 月底，25 /26 榨季广西累计产糖 403 万吨（-79 万 吨），产糖率 12.05%，同比下降 1.14 个百分点。关注中国糖浆和预拌粉进口政 ...