Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc investment rating: Range-bound [1] Core Viewpoints - The zinc market shows a range-bound trend, and the trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,000 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,993.5 dollars/ton, up 0.59%. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 102,274 lots, down 6,247; the trading volume of LME Zinc was 11,953 lots, up 3,344. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc main contract was 132,692 lots, up 2,250; the open interest of LME Zinc was 221,589 lots, down 2,424 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was -55 yuan/ton, down 5; LME CASH - 3M premium was 299.34 dollars/ton, up 69.05. Guangdong 0 zinc premium was -90 yuan/ton, up 5; the import bill of lading premium was 135 dollars/ton, unchanged. Tianjin 0 zinc premium was -55 yuan/ton, down 5; the spot import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -5,420.07 yuan/ton, down 670.14 [1] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory was 65,209 tons, down 1,059; LME zinc inventory was 35,300 tons, down 1,975. The LME zinc cancelled warrants were 10,875 tons, down 1,975; the LME off - warrant (T + 3) was 11,606 tons, up 1,370 [1] - **Related Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,183 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 23,075 yuan/ton, down 40; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 3 zinc alloy was 22,525 yuan/ton, down 40. The price of zinc oxide ≥99.7% was 21,000 yuan/ton, down 100 [1] News - **Financial Market**: PrimaLend Capital Partners filed for bankruptcy after months of negotiations with creditors and failure to pay interest on time, which is a new sign of stress in the low - income consumer sector of the US economy. JPMorgan Chase CEO warned that there may be more problems in the credit field [2] - **Gold Market**: The price of gold suffered the largest single - day plunge since 2013 on Tuesday. The spot gold fell about 2.2% on Wednesday night Beijing time, and the decline narrowed in the New York尾盘, while gold futures turned slightly higher. The holdings of physical - supported gold ETFs reached a three - year high, and the market dominated by ETF funds is often volatile [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of major futures contracts on October 23, 2025, and also gives the expected trend for the whole month of October 2025 for some futures contracts [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 23, 2025, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. IF2512 has resistance at 4592 and 4621 points, support at 4515 and 4498 points; IH2512 has resistance at 3019 and 3034 points, support at 2980 and 2972 points; IC2512 has resistance at 7054 and 7100 points, support at 6925 and 6871 points; IM2512 has resistance at 7211 and 7257 points, support at 7095 and 7059 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Ten - year Treasury Bond Futures T2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 108.26 and 108.32 yuan, support at 108.00 and 107.95 yuan [2][35]. - **Thirty - year Treasury Bond Futures TL2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a strong and wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 116.0 and 116.5 yuan, support at 115.2 and 115.0 yuan [2][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: - **Gold Futures AU2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a weak and wide - range fluctuation, and will test the support levels of 925.0 and 917.9 yuan/gram, with resistance at 937.8 and 950.0 yuan/gram [2][42]. - **Silver Futures AG2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate weakly and will test the support levels of 11210 and 10937 yuan/kilogram, with resistance at 11404 and 11483 yuan/kilogram [3][50]. - **Base Metal Futures**: - **Copper Futures CU2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 85000 and 84300 yuan/ton, resistance at 85400 and 85600 yuan/ton [3][52]. - **Aluminum Futures AL2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 21200 and 21300 yuan/ton, support at 21080 and 21040 yuan/ton [3][59]. - **Alumina Futures AO2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate weakly and will test the support levels of 2800 and 2786 yuan/ton, with resistance at 2836 and 2856 yuan/ton [3][63]. - **Carbonate Lithium Futures LC2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 77800 and 79200 yuan/ton, with support at 76700 and 76000 yuan/ton [3][68]. - **Building Material Futures**: - **Rebar Futures RB2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 3076 and 3090 yuan/ton, support at 3056 and 3034 yuan/ton [4][70]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Futures HC2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance at 3260 and 3280 yuan/ton, support at 3229 and 3204 yuan/ton [4][75]. - **Iron Ore Futures I2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 778 and 780 yuan/ton, support at 767 and 762 yuan/ton [4][77]. - **Coking Coal Futures JM2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 1227 and 1239 yuan/ton, support at 1204 and 1187 yuan/ton [4][82]. - **Glass Futures FG601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with support at 1072 and 1060 yuan/ton, resistance at 1101 and 1110 yuan/ton [4][85]. - **Soda Ash Futures SA601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to have a wide - range fluctuation, with resistance at 1230 and 1250 yuan/ton, support at 1200 and 1190 yuan/ton [4][89]. - **Energy Futures**: - **Crude Oil Futures SC2512**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 453 and 459 yuan/barrel, with support at 445 and 441 yuan/barrel [4][93]. - **Fuel Oil Futures FU2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 2720 and 2752 yuan/ton, support at 2680 and 2660 yuan/ton [4][97]. - **Chemical Futures**: - **PTA Futures TA601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly, with resistance at 4510 and 4530 yuan/ton, support at 4456 and 4434 yuan/ton [5][98]. - **PVC Futures V2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 4750 and 4770 yuan/ton, support at 4688 and 4670 yuan/ton [7][100]. - **Methanol Futures MA601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate and consolidate, with support at 2250 and 2233 yuan/ton, resistance at 2272 and 2281 yuan/ton [7][103]. - **Agricultural Futures**: - **Soybean Meal Futures M2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 2915 and 2938 yuan/ton, support at 2878 and 2868 yuan/ton [7][105]. - **Palm Oil Futures P2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate weakly and will test the support levels of 9072 and 9000 yuan/ton, resistance at 9180 and 9200 yuan/ton [7][107]. - **Natural Rubber Futures RU2601**: On October 23, 2025, it is likely to fluctuate strongly and will attack the resistance levels of 15320 and 15500 yuan/ton, support at 15120 and 15050 yuan/ton [7][110]. Macro - news and Trading Tips - US President Trump expects to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but the meeting may be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responds that the two leaders maintain close communication [8]. - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao meets with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury, emphasizing continued cooperation and solving Airbus' problems in China [8]. - The National Bureau of Statistics releases September unemployment data by age group, with the unemployment rate for 16 - 24 - year - olds at 17.7%, 25 - 29 - year - olds at 7.2%, and 30 - 59 - year - olds at 3.9% [8]. - Guangdong Province releases an action plan for AI - empowered high - quality development of the manufacturing industry, aiming to build a global "AI + Manufacturing" integration development demonstration area [8]. - As of October 21, the US federal government debt exceeds $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [9]. - The US government shutdown lasts for 22 days, becoming the second - longest in history, with a deadlock over expiring medical subsidies [9]. - Trump cancels a meeting with Putin in Budapest. The US sanctions Russia's largest oil producer [9]. - The EU approves the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including a ban on importing Russian LNG [9]. - Japanese Prime Minister Kashiwa Sanae orders a new round of economic measures, with a scale possibly exceeding 13.9 trillion yen last year [9]. Commodity Futures - related Information - On October 22, WTI crude oil futures rose 3.74% to $59.38/barrel, Brent crude oil futures rose 4.94% to $64.35/barrel, driven by expected US sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US EIA crude oil inventory [10]. - On October 22, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 0.18% to $4116.60/ounce, COMEX silver futures rose 1.00% to $48.18/ounce, supported by EU sanctions on Russia, Fed's relaxation of bank capital requirements, and US fiscal policy uncertainty [10]. - In September, global physical gold ETFs had the largest single - month inflow on record, driving the total inflow in Q3 to a record $26 billion. By the end of Q3, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased to $472 billion, and the total holdings increased 6% to 3838 tons, only 2% lower than the historical peak [10]. - On October 22, most London base metals rose. LME zinc rose 1.05% to $3019.50/ton, LME aluminum rose 0.88% to $2805.50/ton, LME lead rose 0.50% to $1995.00/ton, LME copper rose 0.33% to $10658.50/ton, LME tin was flat at $35400.00/ton, and LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15140.00/ton [11]. - Vale's Q3 iron ore production was 94.4 million tons, a 3.8% year - on - year increase, the highest since Q4 2018 [12]. - On October 22, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1245, down 74 basis points from the previous trading day, and the night - session closed at 7.1240. The central parity rate was 7.0954, down 24 basis points [12]. - On October 22, the US dollar index fell 0.06% to 98.91. Non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB against the US dollar rose 11 basis points to 7.1257 [12]. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On October 22, the major stock index futures contracts showed different trends. IF2512 had a slight decline, IH2512 had a slight increase, IC2512 and IM2512 had slight declines. The short - term downward pressure on some contracts increased, and the upward momentum of some was weak [12][13][14]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On October 22, the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts had different trends. The short - term rebound momentum of the 10 - year contract weakened, and the 30 - year contract continued to rebound weakly [34][38]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On October 22 and during the night - session, gold and silver futures contracts showed a weak trend, with increased short - term downward pressure [40][49]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On October 22, copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures contracts showed different trends, with some having weak upward momentum and some continuing to rebound [52][58]. - **Building Material Futures**: On October 22, rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other building material futures contracts generally rebounded, with increased short - term upward momentum [70][75]. - **Energy Futures**: On October 22, crude oil and fuel oil futures contracts showed a strong upward trend, with continued short - term upward momentum [93][97]. - **Chemical Futures**: On October 22, PTA, PVC, and other chemical futures contracts generally rebounded, with different short - term trends [97][100]. - **Agricultural Futures**: On October 22, soybean meal and palm oil futures contracts showed a downward trend, with increased short - term downward pressure, while natural rubber futures contracts fluctuated and consolidated [105][107][110].

2025 年 10 月 23 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | 4057 | -16（-0.39%） | 4063 +13（+0.32%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 2885 | -12 （-0.41%） | 2911 +39 （+1.36%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1035 | +4.5（+0.44%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 289.9 | +3.5（+1.22%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | （元/吨） 山东 | 2950～2960， M2601+60/+80/+110， | 较昨-10至持平； 现货基差M2601+90， 持平或+10或+20； 平或+30； 6-9月M2609-3 ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：底部磨盘 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | 70 | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 21045 | 80 | 1 35 | 350 | 410 | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21105 | ー | - | l | l | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2806 | 25 | 61 | 203 | 204 | | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 132730 | 24557 | 20228 | 31195 | -1904 | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report offers daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Many products are in a state of short - term shock, with some showing upward or downward trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - events [10][18][53]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Follows the oil price rebound. In the short - term, it's a shock market. When PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge. There may be a reduction in load later. Supply - demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support [10]. - **PTA**: The demand is expected to improve marginally. It's a unilateral shock market, and short positions are recommended to be reduced. New devices are planned to start this week, and the basis has fallen [10]. - **MEG**: The demand expectation has improved, and there is a short - term rebound. Short positions are recommended to be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and potential unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices [9][10]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The import volume of natural rubber in September increased, and the main rubber types and source countries showed a significant increase [11][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports decreased, while the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low [16][17][18]. 3.4 Asphalt - Asphalt has risen rapidly due to geopolitical stimulation. The trend strength is relatively strong. The domestic asphalt production in November is expected to decrease, and both factory and social inventories have decreased [19][29]. 3.5 LLDPE - LLDPE shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates slightly, and the market is in a negative feedback stage. Supply pressure will increase, and inventory pressure is high [30][31]. 3.6 PP - PP still shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price fluctuates in a narrow range. Trade wars, high supply, and falling oil prices suppress the market price [34][35]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The far - month valuation of caustic soda is suppressed. The trend strength is neutral. The supply pressure is not significant in October, but the valuation is always restricted by the expected reduction of alumina production [38][39]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating state. The trend strength is neutral. The futures market is strong, while the spot market is stagnant. The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The price of white cardboard may rise [42][44][45]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The trend strength is neutral. The market price is slightly weak, and the trading is light. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [46][47]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is under oscillating pressure. The trend strength is neutral. The port inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is high, but the valuation is relatively low, and it is affected by macro - events [50][53][54]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The enterprise inventory has increased slightly. The supply pressure is large, the valuation is high, and the domestic demand is weak [55][57][58]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene continues to have a negative feedback in the short - term. The trend strength is neutral. The short - term is in an oscillating state. The port inventory is expected to change from accumulation to reduction, and the downstream demand is not optimistic [59][60]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The trend strength is weak. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [63][64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - For LPG, the market valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks still exist. For propylene, it is supported by cost and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term. The trend strength of both is neutral [67][70]. 3.15 PVC - PVC shows a weak trend. The trend strength is weak. The market price is stable, and the supply - demand situation has not improved. It is affected by trade wars, with low - level procurement mentality being weak and cost declining [74]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil follows the rise of crude oil, with increased market fluctuations. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strengthened in the short - term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market has rebounded slightly. The trend strength of both is neutral [77]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is relatively resistant to decline. The shipping prices of European and US - West routes have increased to varying degrees, and the market shows certain resilience [79].

2025 年 10 月 23 日 燃料油：跟随原油上涨，盘面波动放大 低硫燃料油：短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅回弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 期货研究 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 漆 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2511 | 元/吨 | 2.821 | 2. 25% | | 2,792 | 1.53% | | | | FU2512 | 元/吨 | 2,715 | 1. 53% | | 2.695 | 1.13% | | | | LU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,106 | 2. 37% | | 3.063 | 0.89% | | | | LU2512 | 元/吨 | 3.135 | 0. 89% | | 3.100 | 1. 17% | | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日特仓 | 持仓变动 | | | | FU2511 | है | 1 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 短纤：成交较好，短期反弹 瓶片：成交较好，短期反弹 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2511 | 6146 | 6078 | ୧୫ | PF11-12 | 10 | 8 | 2 | | PF | 短纤2512 | 6136 | 6070 | 66 | PF12-01 | -24 | 26 | -50 | | | 短纤2601 | 6160 | 6044 | 116 | PF主力基差 | 164 | 215 | -51 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 164110 | 177742 | -13632 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 300 | 6. 285 | 15 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lithium carbonate industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamental data of lithium carbonate and provides information on macro and industry news, as well as the trend strength of lithium carbonate [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **2511 Contract**: The closing price was 76,780, with a change of 1,200 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 113,005, and the open interest was 100,619 [2] - **2601 Contract**: The closing price was 77,120, with a change of 1,140 compared to T - 1. The trading volume was 376,449, and the open interest was 353,231 [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts was 29,019, a decrease of 873 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: The basis between spot and 2511 contract was -2,430, and between spot and 2601 contract was -2,770. The basis between 2511 and 2601 contracts was -340 [2] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857, and lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,845 [2] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,350, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,100 [2] - **Related Products**: The prices of various related products such as battery - grade lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte were also provided [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 74,363 yuan/ton, up 253 yuan/ton from the previous workday. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 7.435 million yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 7.21 million yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton [3] - Lithium spodumene imports increased significantly by 711,000 physical tons. Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe contributed 81.1% of the total imports. Australia's imports were 347,000 tons, up 64.1%; Nigeria's were about 120,000 tons, up 14.4%; and Zimbabwe's were 109,000 tons, down 7.8%. South Africa's imports reached 109,000 tons, while Mali had no arrivals in September [3][4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend on a scale from -2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - PX is in a short - term volatile market. After PXN rises to $250/ton, factories are advised to hedge appropriately. There may be a load reduction in the later stage. PX supply and demand is slightly tight, and it has cost support from rising oil prices [7]. - PTA demand is expected to improve marginally, with a unilateral volatile market. Short positions should be reduced. New PTA devices are planned to start, and the overall profit of downstream polyester is rising [7]. - For MEG, short positions should be reduced. Pay attention to the restart of some devices and the possible unplanned maintenance of coal - based devices due to profit and coal price factors [7]. Summary by Category Futures Market - PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC futures all rose yesterday, with SC having the largest increase of 2.17%, and PF having the smallest increase of 1.09%. The price of PX1 - 5, PTA1 - 5, and MEG1 - 5 increased, while PF12 - 1 and SC11 - 12 decreased [2]. Spot Market - PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, and Dated Brent all increased in price yesterday, with PX CFR China rising by $14/ton. The PX - naphtha spread increased by $6.34/ton, while PTA processing fee decreased by $7.3/ton [2]. Market Dynamics - PX was still strong in the afternoon. There were buy - side quotes for December floating prices +5, and January had transaction news at +2. A refinery in East China plans to shut down its 150 - million - ton reformer for maintenance later due to a fault. CNOOC Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical may cut production in November. China's PX imports in September decreased by 0.25% month - on - month, with imports from South Korea decreasing and those from Brunei and Japan increasing [3][5]. - PTA futures fluctuated upward today, with a general negotiation atmosphere in the spot market and weak spot basis. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 88 [5]. - A new 80 - million - ton/year MEG device in South China plans to start trial production in early November, and a 90 - million - ton/year MEG device in East China has started maintenance today [6]. - The production and sales of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were highly differentiated, with an average of 7 - 80% by 3:30 pm. The production and sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were smooth, with an average of 138% by 3:00 pm [6]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p - xylene, PTA, and MEG is all 1, indicating a neutral view [6].

Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The Russia-Ukraine crisis has eased [2][4] - **Silver**: Spot contradictions have eased, with prices rising and then falling [2][5] - **Copper**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][9] - **Zinc**: Ranging within a certain interval [2][12] - **Lead**: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][18] - **Aluminum**: The trend is oscillating and slightly bullish; Alumina is grinding at the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][21] - **Nickel**: In the short - term, there is a narrow - range oscillation, and contradictions are still accumulating [2][23] - **Stainless Steel**: It is difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limit the downside space [2][23] 3. Summary by Commodity Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing prices of domestic and international gold - related contracts generally declined. For example, the daily decline of Shanghai Gold 2512 was 4.17%, and the decline of Comex Gold 2512 was 0.53%. ETF holdings decreased, and inventory increased slightly. There were multiple macro - news such as Trump canceling the meeting with Putin and the Fed's plan to relax bank capital requirements [5] - **Silver**: The daily decline of Shanghai Silver 2512 was 3.42%, and the night - session showed a slight increase. Inventory decreased significantly. Spot contradictions eased, and prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling [5] Copper - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased slightly by 0.02%. Trading volume and open interest changed, and inventory decreased. For example, Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,125 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 300 tons [9] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper decreased by 400 yuan/ton. There were various macro and industrial news, such as the strong earnings season on Wall Street and Peru's decline in copper production [9][11] Zinc - **Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.14%. Inventory decreased, and the LME zinc cash - 3M premium increased significantly. There were news such as the bankruptcy of PrimaLend in the secondary lending market [12][13] Lead - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased slightly by 0.09%. Inventory decreased significantly, with Shanghai Lead futures inventory decreasing by 3156 tons and LME lead inventory decreasing by 3175 tons. There were news about the strong earnings season on Wall Street and the US government shutdown [16] Tin - **Price and Inventory**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.29%. The price of SMM 1 tin ingot increased by 7,000 yuan/ton. Inventory increased slightly, and there were multiple macro - news [18][19] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise's profit was 4887.86 yuan/ton, showing an increase. There were news such as the US government shutdown and the India - US trade agreement [21][22] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract increased slightly. It was in a state of grinding at the bottom [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum, and the ADC12 theoretical profit increased [21] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Nickel**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract increased slightly. There were events such as the Indonesian government taking over a nickel mine area and China suspending a non - official subsidy for Russian nickel imports [23][24] - **Stainless Steel**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract increased slightly. It was difficult to find an upward driving force in supply and demand, and costs limited the downside space [23]