| | | 表 1：基本面数据 2026 年 02 月 06 日 橡胶：宽幅震荡 20260206 | | 项目 | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16. 175 | 16. 385 | -210 | | | | 夜盘收盘价(元/吨) | 16, 200 | 16, 325 | -125 | | | | 成交量(手) | 283. 333 | 245. 413 | +37, 920 | | | (05合约) | 持仓量 (手) | 150, 013 | 159, 917 | -9. 904 | | | | 仓单数量(吨) | 111.570 | 111.570 | 0 | | | | 前20名会员净空持仓(手) | 28, 660 | 31, 124 | -2, 464 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 现货-期货主力 | -175 | -185 | +10 | | | | 混合-期货主力 | -995 | -1.085 | +90 | | | 月 差 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 2.04%, the trading volume was 635,809, and the position decreased by 6,547 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 yesterday, compared with - 188 the day before; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 51 yesterday, compared with - 57 the day before [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot price of North China was 6,630 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 6,730 yuan/ton the day before; East China was 6,780 yuan/ton, down from 6,880 yuan/ton; South China was 6,790 yuan/ton, down from 6,950 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The futures price has corrected, the upstream's previous inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotes remain stable, and agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the standard product production schedule is neutral [1]. - Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The foreign - market offer has increased, and there is a shortage of LL supplies. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased significantly. Downstream factories are mostly cautiously waiting and watching. It is expected that the intensifying geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US - dollar market [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

期货研究 烧碱：近月交割压力较大 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 03合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 1917 600 1875 -42 2026 年 2 月 6 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 山东：32 碱周均价 593 元/吨，环比-1.98%。年关临近，山东区域液碱库存持续高企，周内部分货源以 适度低价换量，叠加当前价格已处近年低位，下游及贸易商适量拿货，带动山东液碱库存阶段性回落，但库 存持续性仍需观察。 【市场状况分析】 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 此前市场做空烧碱利润的核心逻辑是液氯偏强，烧碱成本下滑，未到现金流成本厂家不减产，因而高产 量、高库存格局持续。然而该逻辑在后期将受到挑战，主要因液氯的短期强势格局在 4 月份之后（出口退税 导致的抢出口结束）或难以持续。 从基本面看，烧碱高库存导致现货弱势在春节前难逆转。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变， 减产预期压制对烧碱的囤货，不过后期也有大规模产能投产带来 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-06 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-02-06 所长 早读 欧美股市集体收跌 观点分享： 周四（2 月 5 日），欧美股市集体收跌，德国 DAX 指数、英国富时 100 指数跌近 1%， 美国三大股指均跌超 1%。科技股普跌，高通跌超 8%，微软跌近 5%，亚马逊跌超 4%，特 斯拉跌逾 2%。市场受制于美国就业数据疲软、企业裁员创 15 年新高、美联储降息预期波 动、芯片供应紧张及贸易政策调整，以及科技巨头 AI 资本开支与盈利兑现预期分化等多重压 力，投资者风险偏好显著回落。亚马逊发布最新财报，预计今年资本支出将达 2000 亿美 元，远超市场预期。这是迄今最新迹象表明美国科技企业短期内不会放缓其巨额人工智能投 资。财报显示，亚马逊第四季度销售净额 2133.9 亿美元，预估 2114.9 亿美元，每股收益 1.95 美元，预估 1.96 美元。公司预计一季度净销售 1735 亿-1785 亿美元，预估 1755.4 亿 美元。亚马逊股价盘后一度跌超 11%。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | 推 | | | | --- | - ...

2026 年 02 月 06 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 安 期 货 研 究 所 工业硅：关注库存变化情况 多晶硅：区间震荡格局 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,605 | -245 | -320 | -295 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 315,564 | 107,338 | 15,332 | -144,903 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 266,982 | 25,966 | 30,329 | 32,371 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 49,550 | -1,645 | 215 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 11,483 | -1,530 | -4,143 | - | | | | PS26 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 6 日 棉花：预计保持震荡走势 20260206 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 国内棉纺织企业概况：根据 TTEB 信息显示，纯棉纱价格持稳，交投继续减少。伴随物流陆续停运， 市场整体交易节奏进一步放缓。品种间分化明显，低支纱成交尤为清淡，精梳高支纱订单支撑仍较强，局 部货源偏紧。当前阶段各方操作减少，厂家多维持稳价报盘。 美棉概况：昨日 ICE 棉花期货继续下跌，目前近月合约的情况和去年同期类似，短期交割压力和技术 性卖压较大。 【趋势强度】 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2605 | 元/吨 | 14,610 | -0.48% | 14620 | 0.07% | | | CY2605 | 元/吨 | 20,445 | -0.02% | 20455 | 0.05% | | | ICE美棉3 | 美 ...

2026 年 2 月 6 日 集运指数（欧线）：宣涨预期再起 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | EC2602 | 1,737.8 | 0.20% | 9 7 | 1,826 | -57 | 0.05 | 0.33 | | | EC2604 | 1,247.6 | 2.20% | 24,199 | 32,761 | -1,468 | 0.74 | 0.86 | | | EC2606 | 1,534.0 | 0.70% | 3,370 | 14,222 | 764 | 0.24 | 0.23 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/2/2 | | 单 位 | | 周涨幅 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The international crude oil market is in a temporary oscillating pattern, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. 3. Summary by Directory International Crude Oil - NYMEX WTI March crude oil futures closed down $1.85, a 2.84% decline, at $63.29 per barrel; ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 04 closed down $1.91, a 2.75% decline, at $67.55 per barrel; SC2604 crude oil futures closed down $3.50, a 0.75% decline, at 463.90 yuan per barrel [1] Mexican Gulf Market Crude Oil Arbitrage - Arab Extra Light vs WTI MEH: spread -$3.69,环比 up 0.1, long - term negative but showing improvement [2] - Arab Light vs WTI MEH: spread -$4.94,环比 down - 0.06, continuous negative with deteriorating trend [2] - Nemba vs WTI MEH: spread -$5.13,环比 down - 0.14, negative fluctuation, difficult for arbitrage [2] - Agbami vs WTI MEH: spread -$6.67,环比 down - 0.15, deep negative, no arbitrage opportunity [2] - Forties vs WTI MEH: spread -$10.37,环比 down - 0.55, extremely negative, significant deterioration [2] - Arab Heavy vs Mars: spread -$3.46,环比 down - 0.13, negative and stable, small arbitrage space [2] - Vasconia vs Mars: spread -$0.07,环比 up 0.8, near - zero fluctuation, limited opportunity [2] - Castilla vs Mars: spread -$2.71,环比 up 1.2, negative but with significant improvement [2] - Napo vs Mars: spread -$6.94,环比 down - 1.48, deep negative, no opportunity [2] - Maya vs Mars: spread -$0.79,环比 up 1.38, near - zero fluctuation, slight opportunity emerging [2] Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - Forties vs Bonny Light: spread -$2.74,环比 up 0.24, continuous deep negative, still no arbitrage opportunity [4] - Arab Extra Light vs Bonny Light: spread $0.76,环比 down - 0.12, fluctuating around zero, limited opportunity [4] - Saharan Blend vs Bonny Light: spread $6.02,环比 up 0.59, significantly positive and improving, strong arbitrage opportunity [4] - Cabinda vs Bonny Light: spread -$3.49,环比 down - 0.14, deep negative, no arbitrage possibility [4] - Urals vs Bonny Light: spread $24.47,环比 down - 0.01, extremely positive, huge arbitrage space [4] Northwest European Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH vs Forties: spread $1.44,环比 down - 0.16, long - term fluctuating around zero, narrow arbitrage window [6] - Eagle Ford vs Forties: spread $1.77,环比 down - 0.11, similar to WTI MEH trend, slight opportunity [6] - Azeri Light vs Forties: spread $3.36,环比 down - 0.15, continuously positive and relatively high, opportunity exists [6] - Saharan Blend vs Forties: spread $3.46,环比 down - 0.05, similar to Azeri Light, best performance, stable [6] - Bonny Light vs Forties: spread $2.94,环比 down - 0.25, remaining positive, opportunity still exists [6] Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - Saharan Blend vs Urals: spread -$21.64,环比 up 1.17, deep negative, still no opportunity [7] - Azeri Light vs Urals: spread -$20.06,环比 up 1.62, long - term negative, slight improvement [7] - Bonny Light vs Urals: spread -$22.4,环比 up 0.81, extremely negative, still deteriorating [7] - Ekofisk vs Urals: spread -$26.57,环比 up 0.51, extremely negative, no space [7] - Eagle Ford vs Urals: spread -$24,环比 up 0.78, deep negative, still negative trend [7] Chinese Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri vs Dubai: spread -$2.48,环比 up 0.56, negative but with limited opportunity [8] - Basrah Heavy vs Dubai: spread -$1.06,环比 up 0.3, long - term negative, stable [8] - Napo vs Dubai: spread $3.46,环比 down - 0.08, positive, opportunity exists [8] - Maya vs Dubai: spread -$0.29,环比 up 0.87, near - zero fluctuation, slight opportunity emerging [8] - Mars vs Dubai: spread $0.05,环比 up 0.06, near - zero fluctuation, slight opportunity [8] Key Market News - Saudi Arabia cut the prices of its main crude grades sold to Asian buyers to the lowest level in years, indicating that global oil supply exceeds demand. Saudi Aramco cut the price of "Arab Light" oil for Asian buyers by 30 cents per barrel [8] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi arrived in Oman [8] - On February 4, Wan Jinsong, the deputy director of the National Energy Administration of China, met with Joao Claudio de Oliveira Ferreira, the CEO of Petrobras. Both sides discussed cooperation in oil and gas, renewable energy, and energy transition [8] Trend Intensity The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [8]

2026 年 2 月 5 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：元首电话提振情绪，或跟随美豆上涨 豆一：豆类市场情绪好转，或跟随反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4375 | -31 （-0.70%） 4398 | +13（+0.30%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2723 | -13（-0.48%） 2731 | +6（+0.22%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1092 | +25.25（+2.37%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 296.4 | +4.3（+1.47%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 山东 | 3020～3100， | 较昨-50至-20； 现货M2605+410， 持平； | 3月M2605+310； 3-4月 5 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side disturbances in the copper market limit the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 105,160 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 102,590 with a decline of 2.44%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,040 with a decline of 2.76% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 471,921, a decrease of 274,488 from the previous day, and the open interest was 617,249, an increase of 11,759. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,322, a decrease of 12,365, and the open interest was 322,000, an increase of 6,542 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,772, an increase of 751, and the LME Copper inventory was 178,650, an increase of 2,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.83%, a decrease of 8.22% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 64.25, a decrease of 5.08 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,900, an increase of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, an increase of 20 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US ISM manufacturing index in January rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, significantly higher than market expectations. President Trump urged the House Republicans to cooperate with the Democrats to reopen the federal government [1]. - **Industry**: Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Capstone Copper resumed the operation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec and reduced investment in the copper refinery in the medium term [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].