Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The report focuses on the short - term resonance of slaughter, fat - standard, and second - fattening emotions in the pig market [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Sichuan spot price is 11,500 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 250 yuan/ton; Guangdong spot price is 11,460 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change [2]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2511 is 11,460 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2601 is 12,220 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 15 yuan/ton; Live Pig 2603 is 11,585 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2511, the trading volume is 10,907 lots, a decrease of 10,641 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 20,254 lots, a decrease of 1,687 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2601, the trading volume is 80,626 lots, a decrease of 52,113 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 103,570 lots, an increase of 408 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 15,659 lots, a decrease of 13,058 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 84,415 lots, an increase of 1,227 lots from the previous day [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2511 is 520 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 315 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2601 is - 240 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 265 yuan/ton; the basis of Live Pig 2603 is 395 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 280 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 11 - 1 is - 760 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the spread between Live Pig 1 - 3 is 635 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Market Information - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral market sentiment. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.3 Futures Research - New delivery warehouses have been added by Yuexiu and Yangxiang. - In September, the national feed production of the Feed Industry Association was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [4].

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：俄乌危机缓解 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：现货矛盾缓解，冲高回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存减少，支撑价格 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：关注宏观影响 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：底部磨盘 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 镍：短线窄幅震荡，矛盾仍在积累 | 14 | | 不锈钢：供需难寻上行驱动，成本限制下方空间 | 14 | | 碳酸锂：偏强震荡 | 16 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 | 18 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 | 18 | | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 21 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 2 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 沥青：地缘刺激，快速上扬 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2511 | 元/吨 | 3,326 | 1.84% | 3,336 | 0.30% | | | BU2512 | 元/吨 | 3,268 | 2.45% | 3,282 | 0.43% | | 期 货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2511 | 手 | 37,132 | (3,717) | 27,193 | (8,133) | | | BU2512 | 手 | 50,456 | 10,176 | 76,380 | (1,808) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 13040 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 ...

2025 年 10 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：产地去库缓慢，关注下方支撑 豆油：南美产情偏好，关注中美经贸关系 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,164 | 涨跌幅 -1.40% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,080 | 涨跌幅 -0.92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,238 | -0.68% | 8,204 | -0.41% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,834 | -0.30% | 9,738 | -0.98% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,452 | -1.24% | 4,423 | -0.74% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 50.02 | -1.24% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 637,846 | 84307 | 346,365 | 12,688 | | | 豆油主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures rebounded while the basis was weak. The ICE cotton futures fell again, lacking fundamental data guidance and upward momentum. The domestic cotton spot market had mainly rigid - demand transactions, with the spot basis being stable but weakening in some areas. The cotton yarn market was divided, with limited actual price - increase space due to insufficient downstream orders [1][2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,535 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% daily increase and 13,540 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.04% increase; CY2601 closed at 19,760 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% daily increase and 19,750 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.05% increase. ICE cotton 12 was at 63.65 cents/pound with a - 1.18% daily increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 268,059 lots, a decrease of 64,803 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 916,634 lots, an increase of 7,855 lots. The trading volume of CY2601 was 10,964 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 23,235 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 2,565, a decrease of 14, and the effective forecast was 286, an increase of 23. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 6, an increase of 6, and the effective forecast was 0, a decrease of 6 [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,672 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan from the previous day with a - 0.03% change; the price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan with a - 0.03% change; the price in Shandong was 14,793 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan with a 0.27% change; the price in Hebei was 14,756 yuan/ton, an increase of 48 yuan with a 0.33% change. The 3128B index was 14,772 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan with a 0.30% change. The international cotton index M was 72.96 cents/pound, an increase of 1 cent with a 1.09% change. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 was 20,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan with a 0.15% change, and the arrival price was 21,213 yuan/ton, an increase of 13 yuan with a 0.06% change [1] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread was - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan from the previous day's spread. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,140 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot transactions were mainly for rigid demand, with the spot basis stable but weakening in some areas. The purchase price of machine - picked cottonseed in Xinjiang was still stable and slightly increasing, and different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different price quotes and sales bases [2] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market was divided. The sales of low - count rotor - spun yarn and yarn related to autumn and winter fabrics improved slightly, but overall transactions were average. Some spinning mills tried to raise prices by 100 - 200 yuan/ton, but the actual price - increase space was limited due to insufficient downstream new orders. Market purchases were mainly for rigid demand, and the spinning mills' inventory was generally low [2] - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures fell again, lacking fundamental data guidance and upward momentum [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock index futures are oscillating and waiting for the post - session meeting communiqué [3] - On October 22, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. The trading volume and positions of stock index futures decreased, indicating that investors' trading enthusiasm has cooled down [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Series**: The closing price of CSI 300 was 4592.57, down 0.33%. The closing prices of IF2511, IF2512, IF2603, and IF2606 were 4574, 4563.4, 4537, and 4500.2 respectively, all down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] - **IH Series**: The closing price of SSE 50 was 3010.1, up 0.09%. The closing prices of IH2511, IH2512, IH2603, and IH2606 were 3003.6, 3005.6, 3005.2, and 3004.4 respectively, mostly down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] - **IC Series**: The closing price of CSI 500 was 7128.48, down 0.80%. The closing prices of IC2511, IC2512, IC2603, and IC2606 were 7065, 7011.6, 6849, and 6683 respectively, mostly down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] - **IM Series**: The closing price of CSI 1000 was 7312.21, down 0.43%. The closing prices of IM2511, IM2512, IM2603, and IM2606 were 7237.2, 7163.2, 6947.2, and 6736 respectively, all down. The trading volume and positions of most contracts decreased [1] 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - **Trading Volume**: IF's total trading volume decreased by 25,532 lots, IH's by 6344 lots, IC's by 36,408 lots, and IM's by 50,712 lots [2] - **Positions**: IF's total positions decreased by 9453 lots, IH's by 2835 lots, IC's by 12,637 lots, and IM's by 13,666 lots [2] 3.3 Positions of the Top 20 Members - The long and short positions of most contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM decreased, but the data for some contracts (e.g., IF2606) were not announced [5] 3.4 Trend Intensity and Important Drivers - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [6] - **Important Drivers**: Trump said that China and the US would reach an agreement on trade issues at the APEC summit next week, but the two heads of state may not meet. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.62%, etc. A - share trading volume hit a new low at 1.69 trillion yuan [6]

2025 年 10 月 23 日 商 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面较抗跌 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） Si2511成交量（手） | 8,485 | -20 | -85 | -260 | | | | | 105,522 | -83,120 | -119,546 | -198,321 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 96,554 | -10,964 | -45,827 | -181,434 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,715 | 375 | 725 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 100,492 | -21,378 | -175,684 ...

2025年10月23日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场观望情绪浓厚，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：成本底部支撑，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 23 日 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 774.0 | 4. 5 | 0. 58% | | | 12601 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | ...

Group 1: Report Title and Core View - The report is titled "LPG: Disk Valuation Repair, Macro Risks Still Exist; Propylene: Cost Support, Short - term Low - level Volatility" [1] - The core view is that the LPG disk valuation is being repaired but there are still macro risks, and propylene is supported by cost and will run with short - term low - level volatility [1] Group 2: LPG and Propylene Futures Data Futures Prices - PG2511 closed at 4,318 yesterday with a 1.91% daily increase and 4,326 in the night session with a 0.19% increase; PG2512 closed at 4,174 yesterday with a 2.03% daily increase and 4,181 in the night session with a 0.17% increase; PL2601 closed at 6,084 yesterday with a 0.81% daily increase and 6,098 in the night session with a 0.23% increase; PL2602 closed at 6,125 yesterday with a 0.69% daily increase and 6,143 in the night session with a 0.29% increase [1] Position and Trading Volume - PG2511 had 18,142 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,241 from the previous day, and a position of 21,319, a decrease of 3,024 from the previous day; PG2512 had 67,025 contracts traded yesterday, an increase of 3,151 from the previous day, and a position of 94,237, an increase of 1,934 from the previous day; PL2601 had 5,624 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 4,499 from the previous day, and a position of 10,672, a decrease of 610 from the previous day; PL2602 had 2,625 contracts traded yesterday, a decrease of 1,745 from the previous day, and a position of 5,324, a decrease of 92 from the previous day [1] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG11 contract was 82 yesterday, compared to 203 the previous day; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG11 contract was 142 yesterday, compared to 223 the previous day; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 74 yesterday, compared to - 25 the previous day; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 9 yesterday, compared to 40 the previous day; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 59 yesterday, compared to - 10 the previous day [1] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 68.8% this week, compared to 70.9% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.1% this week, compared to 64.1% last week; the alkylation operating rate was 44.9% this week, compared to 45.1% last week [1] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and the trend intensity of propylene is 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4] Group 4: Market News CP Paper Goods Prices - On October 22, 2025, the November CP paper goods price for propane was 451 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the price for butane was 448 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The December CP paper goods price for propane was 460 US dollars/ton, an increase of 16 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [5] Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic PDH devices have maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Ningbo Jinfat New Material Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on September 29, 2025, and ending at the end of October 2025 [6] Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic liquefied gas factories have device maintenance plans, like Zhenghe Petrochemical starting maintenance on May 14, 2024, and ending in October 2025; Guangzhou Petrochemical starting a rotational inspection on October 17, 2025, and ending in early December 2025 [6]

2025 年 10 月 23 日 集运指数（欧线）：相对抗跌 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | | 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2510 | 1,136.6 | 0.24% | 1,170 | 5,583 | -789 | 0.21 | 0.37 | | 期货 | EC2512 | 1,788.3 | 2.25% | 28,612 | 29,008 | 574 | 0.99 | 1.51 | | | EC2602 | 1,582.9 | 1.82% | 4,733 | 10,664 | 431 | 0.44 | 0.53 | | | EC2512 - EC2604 | 616.9 | | | EC2602-EC ...