2026年01月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 | 黄金：再创新高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：冲刺100 | 2 | | 铜：铜矿扰动增加，价格走强 | 4 | | 锌：偏强运行 | 6 | | 铅：LME库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：震荡偏强 | 9 | | 铝：偏强震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：底部盘整 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：上涨势头猛烈 | 12 | | 钯：警惕补涨动能 | 12 | | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 14 | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 14 | 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：再创新高 白银：冲刺 100 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 23, the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures showed mixed performance. IF fell 0.34%, IH fell 0.73%, IC rose 3.31%, and IM rose 2.89%. On this trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF2602, IF2603, IF2606, and IF2609 were 4704, 4709.2, 4687.6, and 4647 respectively. The price of IF2602 and IF2603 decreased, while IF2606 and IF2609 increased. The trading volume and positions of each contract also changed to varying degrees [1]. - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH2602, IH2603, IH2606, and IH2609 were 3032.4, 3037.8, 3036, and 3006 respectively. All contracts' prices decreased. The trading volume and positions of each contract increased [1]. - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC2602, IC2603, IC2606, and IC2609 were 8656.2, 8658.2, 8578.8, and 8491 respectively. All contracts' prices increased. The trading volume of each contract increased, while the position of IC2602 decreased and others increased [1]. - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM2602, IM2603, IM2606, and IM2609 were 8531.8, 8516.6, 8366.2, and 8219 respectively. All contracts' prices increased. The trading volume and positions of each contract increased [1][3]. 3.2 Trading Volume and Position Changes - The total trading volume of IF increased by 25,763 lots, IH increased by 9,434 lots, IC increased by 37,908 lots, and IM increased by 50,387 lots. The total positions of IF increased by 10,173 lots, IH increased by 11,239 lots, IC increased by 11,606 lots, and IM increased by 23,726 lots [2]. 3.3 Top 20 Member Position Changes - For different contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM, the long - order and short - order positions of the top 20 members changed. For example, in IF2601, the long - order increased by 3364 and the short - order increased by 4396 [5]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and the trend strength of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 3.5 Important Drivers - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially issued the guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds, and the Asset Management Association of China simultaneously issued the operating rules, which will be implemented on March 1st this year. The new rules address industry pain points such as "vague benchmarks", "style drift", and "fund blind boxes" [6]. 3.6 Stock Market Performance - **A - shares**: On Friday, A - shares fluctuated and climbed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.33% to 4136.16 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.79%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, and the Wind All - A Index rose 0.97%. The market turnover was 3.12 trillion yuan, compared with 2.72 trillion yuan the previous day. The "space photovoltaic" market was booming, and concepts such as commercial aerospace, non - ferrous metals, innovative drugs, and pharmaceutical retail strengthened [7]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: Hong Kong stocks fluctuated and strengthened. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.45% to 26749.51 points, the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.62%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 0.51%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$1.6 billion, and Alibaba was net sold HK$1.49 billion [7]. - **US Stocks**: The three major US stock indexes closed with mixed performance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.58% to 49098.71 points, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.03% to 6915.61 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.28% to 23501.24 points. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.53% cumulatively, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.35% cumulatively, and the Nasdaq Index fell 0.06% cumulatively [8].

2026 年 1 月 26 日 硅铁：成本预期抬升，宽幅震荡 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 期现价差、近远月价差和跨品种价差均取期货收盘价 资料来源：钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、铁合金在线：1 月 23 日硅铁 72#：陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5350（+50），青海 5250-5350 （+25），甘肃 5200-5250（-25），内蒙 5250-5300；75#硅铁：陕西 5850-5900（+25），宁夏 5750- 5800（+50），青海 5700-5750，甘肃 5700-5750（+50），内蒙 5800-5850（+50）（现金含税自然 块出厂，元/吨）；硅铁 FOB：72#1060-1080(+10)，75#1100-1140（+10）（美元/吨，含税）。硅 锰 6517#北方报价 5650-5700（-25）元/吨；南方报价 5800-58 ...

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 豆粕：或跟随美豆震荡 豆一：现货稳定，盘面反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4364 | +46（+1.07%） | 4378 | +21 （+0.48%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2751 | +2 （+0.07%） | 2760 | +1 （+0.04%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1067.5 | +3.5（+0.33%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 300.1 | +3.9 （+1.32%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3085～3150， M2605+350， 持平； | 较昨-5至持平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are strengthening due to increased disturbances in copper mines. The trend strength of copper is rated 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 101,340 with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the night - session closing price was 102,830 with a night - session increase of 1.47%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price was 13,129 with a daily increase of 2.25% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 443,867, an increase of 122,137 from the previous day, and the open interest was 658,243, an increase of 10,968. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading volume was 30,247, an increase of 2,046, and the open interest was 326,000, an increase of 9,606 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 146,793, an increase of 3,620. The LME Copper inventory was 171,700, an increase of 3,450. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 26.95%, a decrease of 1.04% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 66.06, an increase of 16.78 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,400, an increase of 300. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 180, a decrease of 10 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: In January, the US S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs both expanded but slightly missed expectations. The Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 49.4. The EU announced a six - month suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the US [1]. - **Industry News**: The union of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile owned by Capstone Copper condemned the company for illegally replacing workers during a 15 - day strike. China's December 2025 imports of copper ore and concentrates increased by 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year. The Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile has basically stopped production, and Lundin Mining has lowered its 2026 copper production guidance [1][3]. 3.3 Import Data - In December 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2,704,298.42 tons, up 7.05% month - on - month and 7.32% year - on - year. Refined copper imports were 298,027.32 tons, down 2.19% month - on - month and 27.00% year - on - year. Waste copper imports were 239,000 tons, up 14.81% month - on - month and 9.90% year - on - year [3]. 3.4 Other Industry Events - Japanese copper smelters are still negotiating 2026 processing and refining fees (TC/RC) with global miners. The Chilean environmental regulator fined Antofagasta Minerals about $775,000 for non - compliance with water resource management regulations. Striking workers blocked key access roads to two major mines, disrupting operations [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the spot price of eggs is strong during the pre - holiday peak season [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2602 is 3,031 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.88%, a trading volume change of - 605, and a position change of - 5,157. The closing price of egg2603 is 3,046 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.59%, a trading volume change of 6,476, and a position change of - 3,830 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg 2 - 3 spread is - 15 (previous day: - 1), and the egg 3 - 9 spread is - 885 (previous day: - 865) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.80 yuan/jin, 3.56 yuan/jin, 3.90 yuan/jin, and 3.80 yuan/jin respectively, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1]. - **Feed and Related Product Prices**: The latest corn spot price is 2,375 yuan/ton, the soybean meal spot price is 3,080 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.28 yuan/kg, all showing a slight increase compared to the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. A value of - 2 indicates the most bearish view, and 2 indicates the most bullish view [2].

2026 年 1 月 26 日 锡：震荡偏强 | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 唐文豪（联系人） | 期货从业资格号：F03152608 | tangwenhao@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 锡基本面数据 | | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪锡主力合约 | 429,570 | 5.03% | 447,140 | 4.09% | | 期 货 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 56,605 | 7.49% | - | - | | 及 现 | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 货 电 | 沪锡主力合约 | 378,618 | 102,997 | 56,254 | 33,940 | | 子 盘 | 伦锡3M电子盘 | 890 | 361 | 23,931 | 202 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日 ...

2026 年 1 月 26 日 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2. 713 | 4.51% | | 2.627 | 1. 39% | | | | FU2603 | 元/吨 | 2. 643 | 1.39% | | 2.613 | 0. 93% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 3. 130 | 0. 42% | | 3.115 | -0. 03% | | | | LU2603 | 元/吨 | 3. 117 | -0. 03% | | 3.092 | -0. 99% | | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 期货 | FU2602 | 手 | 1.062 | (384) | | 2. 665 | (542) | | | | FU2603 | 手 | 560.020 | 35.581 | | 186.973 | 1.99 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report focuses on the situation of the pig market, with the demand expectation for Laba Festival realized, and suggests paying attention to the supply contradiction [1]. - The trend intensity is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 13,280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of Live Pig 2603 is 11,565 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2605 is 11,850 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year; Live Pig 2607 is 12,470 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For Live Pig 2603, the trading volume is 42,940 lots, down 7,794 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 131,413 lots, down 4,037 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2605, the trading volume is 18,255 lots, down 1,790 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 108,344 lots, up 1,559 lots from the previous day; for Live Pig 2607, the trading volume is 4,227 lots, down 52 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 45,736 lots, up 692 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of Live Pig 2603 is 1,715 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of Live Pig 2605 is 1,430 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of Live Pig 2607 is 810 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between Live Pig 3 - 5 is - 285 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between Live Pig 5 - 7 is - 620 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].

2026 年 01 月 26 日 短纤：短期趋势偏强 20260126 瓶片：短期趋势偏强 20260126 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | ୧୧38 | 6486 | 152 | PF02-03 | -2 | -10 | 8 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6640 | 6496 | 144 | PF03-04 | -48 | -40 | -8 | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧୫୫ | ୧୧3୧ | 152 | PF主力基差 | -100 | -16 | -84 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 185407 | 112708 | 72699 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.540 | 6.480 | 60 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 190745 | 190842 | -97 | 短纤产销率 | 118% | 78% | ...