Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry's investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The strengthening of the LME spot premium supports copper prices [1]. - The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, driven by the AI and defense sectors [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price and Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main - contract was 103,870 with a daily increase of 1.54%, and the night - session closing price was 103,660 with a decrease of 0.20%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - plate closing price was 13,300 with an increase of 1.09%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 691,628, an increase of 22,824 from the previous day, and the position was 698,229, an increase of 7,693. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - plate was 33,827, an increase of 1,431, and the position was 324,000, a decrease of 670 [1]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 149,339, an increase of 27,212; the LME Copper inventory was 141,625, an increase of 75. The LME copper premium increased by 25.92 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price increased by 400 to 89,900. The spot - to - near - month futures spread increased by 80 to 140 [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: In the US, November retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, November PPI rose to 3% year - on - year, and December existing home sales reached the strongest level since 2023. Some Fed officials advocated maintaining the interest rate in January, while others held a cautious stance [1]. - **Industry**: By 2040, global copper demand will grow significantly driven by AI and defense. The 2026 copper premium proposed by PPC to Japanese customers reached a record high. Codelco's November copper production decreased by 3% year - on - year. The US government may lift a mining ban in Minnesota [3]. 3. Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].

商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 15 日 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4323 -31 （-0.71%） | 4332 | +3（+0.07%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2751 -25（-0.90%） | 2754 | +5（+0.18%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1042.5 +3.5（+0.34%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 292 +0.1 （+0.03%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 3100～3180， 较昨-20至+10； | 现货M2605+380/+420， | 较昨+20； 2月 | | | | M2605+360/+390， 持平或+10； | 2-3月M2605+360/+400， | 持平； 3月 | | | 山东 （元/吨） | M2605+370/+380/+390/+400 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, individual commodity ratings can be inferred from the trend strength: - **Positive Outlook**: Gold, Silver, Copper, Tin, Aluminum, PX, PTA, MEG, Synthetic Rubber, Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil [2][9][19][23][62][73][124] - **Neutral Outlook**: Platinum, Palladium, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Industrial Silicon, Polycrystalline Silicon, Iron Ore, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Ferrosilicon, Manganese Silicon, Coke, Coking Coal, Steam Coal, Logs, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Pure Benzene, Soybean Meal, Soybean, Corn, Cotton, Eggs, Peanuts [26][30][31][36][39][40][43][45][49][53][57][59][142][150][158][159][162][170][175][182] - **Negative Outlook**: Zinc, PVC, Caustic Soda, Rubber, Benzene Ethylene, Soda Ash, LPG, Propylene, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Sugar, Live Pigs [12][121][81][70][103][107][112][113][153][166][178] Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities in the futures market, including their price trends, fundamental data, and market news. It suggests that investors should pay attention to factors such as supply - demand balance, cost support, and geopolitical events when making investment decisions. For example, for PX and PTA, although the supply is relatively loose, the cost - end support from oil prices may drive the prices up, but the decline in downstream demand needs to be monitored [68]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded. The price is affected by factors such as the US economic data and the Fed's interest - rate policy [5]. - **Silver**: Reached a new high. The price shows a strong upward trend [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strengthening of LME spot premium supports the price. The global copper demand is expected to increase significantly by 2040, but the production of some major copper producers has declined [9][11]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the upper - level pressure. The price is affected by factors such as inventory changes and macro - news [12]. - **Lead**: The decrease in overseas inventory supports the price. The market is influenced by macro - economic data and industry news [16]. - **Tin**: Strong upward movement. The price has increased significantly [19]. - **Aluminum**: Oscillating strongly. Alumina is in range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [23]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - Related**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East affects the oil price, which in turn impacts the prices of related chemical products such as PX, PTA, and MEG [62]. - **PTA**: The polyester production - cut plan has increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation strength. The price is influenced by cost and downstream demand [62]. - **MEG**: The downside space of valuation is limited [62]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about Indonesia's B50 policy, and the POGO is expected to shrink [63]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillating, waiting for the progress of China - Canada trade events [65]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price [67]. - **Sugar**: Weak operation [68]. - **Cotton**: Continuing the adjustment trend [69]. Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East; weak operation. The price is affected by factors such as shipping capacity, demand, and spot freight rates [126].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tin industry is "strongly bullish", with a trend strength of 2, indicating the most bullish outlook [1][3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin market is experiencing a strong upward trend, as evidenced by significant price increases in both futures and spot markets [1][2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 413,170 with a daily increase of 8.92%, and the night - session closing price was 436,540 with a night - session increase of 9.18%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 54,000 with a daily increase of 9.88% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 404,698, a decrease of 65,525 from the previous day, and the open interest was 42,405, a decrease of 448. The trading volume of the LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 1,536, a decrease of 14, and the open interest was 23,559, an increase of 271 [2] - **Inventory and Cancelled Warrant Ratio**: The Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,107, an increase of 862, and the LME Tin inventory was 5,930, unchanged. The cancelled warrant ratio of LME Tin was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot and Price Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price increased by 25,300 to 405,500, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price increased by 30,000 to 410,000. The LME Tin (spot/three - month) spread increased by 22 to - 65 [2] - **Industry Chain Key Prices**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan increased by 25,300 to 393,500, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi increased by 25,300 to 397,500 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US will suspend all visas for 75 countries, covering nearly one - third of the world - US retail sales in November increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, driven by a rebound in car sales and holiday consumption - The Japanese yen fell to an 18 - month low, and the Japanese Finance Minister warned of "not excluding any means" to rescue the market - China's Foreign Ministry stated that US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from major Middle - East bases [4]

2026 年 01 月 15 日 锌：关注上方压力 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌主力收盘价 | 24475 | 0.80% | 伦锌 3M 电子盘收 | 3202 | -0.36% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪锌主力成交量 | 243101 | 54828 | 伦锌成交量（手） | 19110 | 7930 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪锌主力持仓量 | 120299 | 8993 | 伦锌持仓量（手） | 228263 | -3909 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 0# 锌升贴水 | 50 | -20 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -19.35 | 21.55 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水 ...

2026 年 01 月 15 日 短纤：震荡偏强，多 TA 空 PF 持有 20260115 瓶片：震荡偏强，月差正套持有 20260115 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2602 | 6452 | 6490 | -38 | PF02-03 | -18 | -16 | -2 | | PF | 短纤2603 | 6470 | 6506 | -36 | PF03-04 | -68 | -54 | -14 | | | 短纤2604 | ୧୧38 | 6560 | -22 | PF主力基差 | 40 | 24 | 16 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 213308 | 102755 | 110553 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.510 | 6.530 | -20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 185516 昨日 | 56354 前日 | 1291 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: January 15, 2026 - Report Type: Commodity Research - Analysts: Liu Yuxuan - Investment Advisory Qualification Number: Z0020476 - Email: liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Platinum is in a state of shock adjustment, while palladium follows with a slight pullback [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 630.65 with a 4.23% increase; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) was 2402.70 with a 2.77% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 495.50 with a 2.53% increase; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) was 1882.50 with a - 0.24% change [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For domestic platinum, trading volume was 38,859 kg with a change of 40,702 from the previous day, and open interest was 8,055 kg with a change of 419. For NYMEX platinum, trading volume was 46,885 kg with a change of 1,308, and open interest was 103,814 kg with a change of - 1,535. Similar data is provided for palladium [1]. - **ETF Holdings**: Platinum ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 3,284,147 with a change of 5,863; palladium ETF holdings (ounces, previous day) were 1,190,229 with a change of - 1,661 [1]. - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces, previous day) was 624,345 with no change; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces, previous day) was 210,908 with no change [1]. - **Price Spreads**: Various price spreads are provided, such as the spread between PT9995 and PT2606, and the spread between domestic platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts, as well as spreads considering VAT for domestic and international prices of platinum and palladium [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **US Economic Data**: US November PPI increased slightly month - on - month, and retail sales growth exceeded expectations. The third - quarter last year recorded the smallest trade deficit since the second quarter of 2023 [4]. - **Iran Situation**: Trump said he was informed that Iran's "killing" had stopped and there was no execution plan; US officials said the US was withdrawing personnel from multiple major bases in the Middle East; the Trump administration obtained a list of 50 high - value Iranian military targets; the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said it had reached the highest state of combat readiness and increased missile inventory; US reconnaissance planes flew along the Iranian border; many countries urged their citizens to leave Iran [4]. - **US Supreme Court**: On January 9, the US Supreme Court did not rule on the legality of Trump's tariffs, and the next ruling window is next Tuesday or Wednesday [4]. - **Chip Tariffs**: Trump proposed a 25% tariff on imported chips not used in US AI, and the White House may expand the scope of chip import tariffs in the near future [4]. - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The gold - silver ratio fell below the 50 mark for the first time since March 2012 [4]. - **Japan's Warning**: Japan's finance minister and the highest foreign exchange official warned against excessive yen fluctuations [4]. - **Denmark's Action**: The Danish Ministry of Defense confirmed the increase of troops in Greenland [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of platinum is 0, and that of palladium is also 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]. 3.4 Other Information - Exchange - related information: The US dollar index was 99.08 with a - 0.06% change; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate (CNY spot) was 6.98 with a 0.06% change; the US dollar to offshore RMB exchange rate (CNH spot) had a 0.12% change; the US dollar to RMB (6M forward) was 6.90 with a - 0.03% change [1].

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided text. Group 2: Core View - The container shipping index (European line) maintained a volatile trend yesterday. The main 2604 contract closed at 1,230.5 points, with an increase of 1,274 lots and a decline of 0.21%. The second - main 2602 contract closed at 1,718 points, with a decrease of 1,401 lots and a decline of 1.18% [11]. - The shipping capacity after the Spring Festival in 2026 has a relatively large growth rate, and the shipping capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater. Although there is a marginal positive effect of the rush - shipment of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance trend of the European line in March - April. The 2602 contract should be mainly observed, the 2604 contract short positions should be held, and the 2610 contract short positions should be lightly held and short positions should be placed on rallies in the medium - to - long term [12][13][15]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The EC2602 contract closed at 1,718.0, down 1.18%, with a trading volume of 5,642 and an open interest of 10,461, a decrease of 1,401. The EC2604 contract closed at 1,230.5, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 45,075 and an open interest of 40,044, an increase of 1,274 [1]. - **Freight Index**: The SCFIS European route was 1,956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%. The SCFIS US - West route was 1,323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. The SCFI European route was $1,719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%. The SCFI US - West route was $2,218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers' freight rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, such as Maersk's $2,420/40'GP and $1,510/20'GP [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.18, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 2. Macro News - The US special envoy announced the launch of the second phase of the "Twenty - Point Plan" to end the Gaza conflict, which includes establishing a transitional Palestinian technocratic government in Gaza and starting the demilitarization and reconstruction of the Gaza Strip [10][13]. - Palestinian factions reached a consensus on the requirements for the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement, including establishing an independent committee to manage Gaza [10]. 3. Shipping Capacity Analysis - In January, there are no undetermined voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 309,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, there are 11 blank sailings, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 271,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, there are 9 blank sailings and 2 undetermined voyages, with a weekly average shipping capacity of 284,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5% [12]. - The average shipping capacity before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 is 313,000, 221,000, and 307,000 TEU respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4% [12]. 4. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The cargo volume usually peaks around mid - January and then declines [13]. - The cancellation and reduction of export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products from April 1, 2026, are expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European line) from January to March, but have a marginal negative impact on the demand after April [13]. 5. Spot Freight Rate Forecast - The forecast is that the FAK average in the 3rd - 4th week may be lowered to the range of $2,600 - 2,670/FEU, setting the tone for the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 6. Contract Strategy - For the 2602 contract, it is recommended to mainly observe. Under a neutral - to - pessimistic freight scenario, its valuation center may fall in the range of 1,700 - 1,750 points [15]. - For the 2604 contract, short positions should be held. The short - term target range is 1,050 - 1,100 points, and the upper resistance range is 1,200 - 1,250 points [15]. - For the 2610 contract, short positions should be lightly held, and short positions should be placed on rallies in the medium - to - long term. The upper resistance level refers to the delivery settlement price of the 2510 contract, which is 1,161 points [15]. 7. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings - **Positive Trends**: PX, MEG, synthetic rubber, methanol, urea, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil [10][11][16][39][44][69] - **Neutral Trends**: Rubber, LLDPE, PP, paper pulp, glass, benzene, styrene, soda ash, LPG, propylene, short - fiber, bottle - chip, pure benzene [13][19][22][30][35][48][52][57][58][87][95] - **Negative Trends**: Caustic soda, PVC, container shipping index (European line), offset printing paper [25][66][71][90] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals of various energy and chemical futures, including price changes, supply - demand relationships, and market news, and provides investment suggestions based on trend strength and market conditions [1][2] 2. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - supported, supply is loose, and downstream demand is expected to decline. Suggest long PX short PTA and long SC short PX hedging [6][10] - **PTA**: Cost - supported, high processing fees, and polyester production cuts need to be observed. Suggest long SC short PTA [10][11] - **MEG**: Short - term rebound, pay attention to the implementation of spring maintenance of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants [11] Rubber - Wide - range oscillation, with inventory increasing in Qingdao and mixed performance in the tire industry [13][14][15] Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up, affected by geopolitical conflicts and the supply - demand of butadiene [16][18] LLDPE - Futures and spot prices resonate, with low standard product production. There are still concerns about supply - demand pressure in the medium term [19][20] PP - Cost - supported by downstream export rush, but overall fundamentals are weak at the end of the year [22][23] Caustic Soda - Weak oscillation, facing problems of high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25][27] Paper Pulp - Oscillation, with weak downstream demand and price adjustment of broad - leaf pulp [30][33][34] Glass - The original sheet price is stable, and the market trading atmosphere is average [35][36] Methanol - Oscillation with support, affected by geopolitical conflicts and inventory expectations [39][42] Urea - Medium - term upward oscillation, with inventory reduction and improved fundamentals [44][46][47] Benzene, Styrene - Short - term oscillation, with high valuation and concerns about supply - demand in the medium term [48][49][50] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little, and the demand support is gradually weakening [52][54] LPG, Propylene - LPG: Short - term supply is tight, affected by geopolitical factors. Propylene: Spot supply - demand tightens, with a strong trend [57][58] PVC - Weak oscillation, with high production, high inventory, and weak demand [66][67] Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil: Sharp rise, short - term easy to rise and hard to fall. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Follow the rise, with a slight contraction in the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels [69] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Weak operation, affected by geopolitical situations and supply - demand in the shipping market [71][82][83] Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip - Both are oscillating strongly. For short - fiber, hold long TA short PF; for bottle - chip, hold long - short spread arbitrage [87][88] Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions, with stable prices and weak demand in the market [90][91][93] Pure Benzene - Short - term oscillation, with inventory accumulation and price adjustment [95][96]

2026 年 01 月 15 日 尿素：中期震荡上行 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | | 项目名称 | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,814 | 1,774 | 4 0 99800 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,796 | 1,778 | 1 8 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 206,733 | 106,933 | | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 253,756 | 230,249 | 23507 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 13,355 | 13,355 | 0 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 742,445 | 380,344 | 362101 | | | | | 山东地区基差 | -74 | -34 | -40 | | | 基 差 | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -194 | -154 | -40 | | | | 东光-盘 ...