Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the fundamentals of lithium carbonate, including price, volume, and position data of different contracts, as well as raw material and lithium salt prices. It also presents macro and industry news, such as the decline in SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price and production and shipment data of lithium mines [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Contract Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price was 68,280 yuan, down 2,320 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 521,849 lots, down 271,060 lots; and its open interest was 229,368 lots, down 43,385 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price was 68,600 yuan, down 1,980 yuan compared to T - 1; its trading volume was 378,788 lots, down 78,470 lots; and its open interest was 195,732 lots, up 10,387 lots [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume was 5,545 lots, down 7,586 lots compared to T - 1 [3] - **Basis**: The basis of spot - 2509 was 3,720 yuan, up 1,370 yuan compared to T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 was - 320 yuan, up 20 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Raw Materials**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 766 US dollars, down 10 US dollars compared to T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,750 yuan, down 25 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan, down 950 yuan compared to T - 1 [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Decline**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 71,474 yuan/ton, down 1,384 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,900 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton [4] - **Lithium Mine Production and Shipment**: In 2025Q2, Mt Marion produced 124,000 tons of lithium concentrate, a 11% quarter - on - quarter decrease, and shipped 134,000 tons, a 3% quarter - on - quarter decrease. Wodgina produced 166,000 tons, a 32% quarter - on - quarter increase, and shipped 136,000 tons, a 17% quarter - on - quarter increase [5] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The zinc market is continuing to accumulate inventory. The prices of both Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc futures have declined, with the Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price at 22345 yuan/ton, down 1.43%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price at 2795.5 dollars/ton, down 0.68% [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The Shanghai zinc main - contract closing price decreased by 1.43% to 22345 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk closing price decreased by 0.68% to 2795.5 dollars/ton [1]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main - contract increased by 41252 to 182660 lots, while the LME zinc trading volume decreased by 701 to 8740 lots [1]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai zinc main - contract decreased by 5764 to 110481 lots, and the LME zinc open interest increased by 1164 to 189911 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium increased by 10 to 0 yuan/ton, and the LME CASH - 3M premium increased by 1.23 to - 2.69 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory decreased by 174 to 15058 tons, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 4250 to 104800 tons [1]. 3.2 News - The US is increasing pressure as the tariff deadline approaches, with multiple countries sending delegations to Washington for negotiations. Trump announced an agreement with South Korea and plans to sign a new executive order on Thursday to impose higher tariffs on countries that fail to reach trade agreements [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook according to the defined range of [-2, 2] where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2][3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information on the report industry investment rating is provided [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The sentiment of the egg market is weak, and the trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2508 is 3,259 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.36% and a trading volume decrease of 1,695 and an open interest decrease of 11,879. The closing price of egg2510 is 3,298 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.96% and a trading volume increase of 36,432 and an open interest increase of 21,483 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 8 - 9 spread is -263, and the egg 8 - 10 spread is -39, compared to -299 and -82 of the previous day respectively [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of eggs in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.00 yuan/jin, 2.93 yuan/jin, 3.10 yuan/jin, and 3.71 yuan/jin respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day. The corn spot price is 2,329 yuan/ton, down from 2,368 yuan/ton of the previous day. The soybean meal spot price is 2,890 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The live pig price in Henan is 14.33 yuan/kg, up from 13.93 yuan/kg of the previous day [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a range of [-2, 2]. -2 indicates the most bearish outlook, and 2 indicates the most bullish outlook [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report On July 31, all the current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined. The trading enthusiasm of investors has increased, with the total trading volume of each index futures rising. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. The trend intensities of IF, IH, IC, and IM are all 1 [1][2][6]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On July 31, all current - month contracts of the four major stock index futures declined: IF fell 1.68%, IH fell 1.42%, IC fell 1.26%, and IM fell 0.8% [1]. - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of IF increased by 18,165 lots, IH by 4,976 lots, IC by 14,305 lots, and IM by 36,495 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 3,716 lots, IH by 3,315 lots, IC by 2,760 lots, and IM increased by 1,767 lots [1][2]. b. Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions - For IF: In IF2508, long - positions decreased by 686 and short - positions by 1950; in IF2509, long - positions decreased by 4,695 and short - positions by 3,905; in IF2512, long - positions increased by 2,332 and short - positions by 2,681; in IF2603, long - positions increased by 268 and short - positions by 519 [5]. - For IH: In IH2508, long - positions decreased by 161 and short - positions by 600; in IH2509, long - positions decreased by 873 and short - positions by 1,372; in IH2512, long - positions decreased by 274 and short - positions by 165; IH2603 data was not released [5]. - For IC: In IC2508, long - positions decreased by 2,004 and short - positions by 1,928; in IC2509, long - positions increased by 912 and short - positions decreased by 1,078; in IC2512, long - positions increased by 696 and short - positions by 399; in IC2603, long - positions increased by 598 and short - positions by 713 [5]. - For IM: In IM2508, long - positions decreased by 2,083 and short - positions by 2,302; in IM2509, long - positions decreased by 564 and short - positions by 928; in IM2512, long - positions increased by 3,094 and short - positions by 2,320; IM2603 data was not released [5]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensities of IF and IH are 1, and those of IC and IM are also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 representing the most bearish view [6]. d. A - share Market Review The A - share market declined in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index closed below the 10 - day moving average for the first time since regaining 3,400 points on June 24. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.18% to 3,573.21 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.73%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, the North Securities 50 fell 1.16%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 fell 1.01%, the Wind All - A fell 1.36%, the Wind A500 fell 1.89%, and the CSI A500 fell 1.75%. The total trading volume of A - shares was 1.96 trillion yuan, compared with 1.87 trillion yuan the previous day. In July, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index rose 8.14% [6].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil markets, providing fundamental data, macro and industry news, and trend analysis [1]. Key Points 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is in a high - level game, and investors should wait for a callback opportunity; soybean oil is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,900 yuan/ton (down 0.91% in the day - session) and 8,868 yuan/ton (down 0.36% in the night - session); soybean oil主力 closed at 8,192 yuan/ton (down 0.58% in the day - session) and 8,198 yuan/ton in the night - session; rapeseed oil主力 closed at 9,510 yuan/ton (down 1.15% in the day - session) and 9,480 yuan/ton (down 0.32% in the night - session). The trading volume and open interest of each variety also changed [1]. - **Spot Data**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,380 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,530 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis and various spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were provided, such as the basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 610 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Export**: ITS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the previous month; AmSpec reported a 9.58% decrease to 1,163,216 tons [2][3]. - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, up from $877.89 in July, and the export tax will increase from $52/ton in July to $74/ton in August. The EU may give zero - tariff treatment to 1 million tons of Indonesian CPO exports annually when the free - trade agreement is approved [6]. - **Soybean - related News**: About 5% of the US soybean - growing area was affected by drought as of July 29, down from 8% the previous week. The 2025/26 US soybean production is estimated to be around 118 million tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from July 27 - August 2 are expected to be 2.5504 million tons, 0.3864 million tons, and 1.7742 million tons respectively. Ukraine's 2025 soybean production may decrease by over 1 million tons due to a 24% reduction in planting area [7][8]. - **Rapeseed News**: Kazakhstan's rapeseed exports in the first 10 months of the 2024/25 season (September - August) reached 117,900 tons, a three - fold increase from the previous year [9]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [10].

期货研究 烧碱：旺季需求仍有期待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2560 830 2594 34 2025 年 8 月 1 日 【市场状况分析】 宏观端，关注 8 月贸易战超预期风险，同时近期反内卷情绪有所走弱。烧碱在此轮反内卷过程中基本面 并没有明显改善，驱动不足，目前反内卷政策也未涉及烧碱行业。 目前烧碱由于处于需求淡季，涨价动力不足，但又受液氯偏弱影响，成本支撑强，未来需要关注耗氯下 游对烧碱供应的影响。此外，需要关注 08 合约仓单对市场的冲击，因此烧碱短期承压，长期看，烧碱旺季 需求仍有期待。 【趋势强度】 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 8 月 1 日起价格下调 10 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨。 烧碱趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that asphalt prices are in a high - level oscillation, and investors should be vigilant about a potential rise in crude oil prices [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2508, the yesterday's closing price was 3,683 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.30%, and the overnight closing price was 3,669 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,025 lots with a decrease of 546 lots, and the open interest was 1,533 lots with a decrease of 362 lots. For BU2509, the yesterday's closing price was 3,659 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.25%, and the overnight closing price was 3,654 yuan/ton with a decrease of 0.14%. The trading volume was 145,613 lots with a decrease of 45,926 lots, and the open interest was 125,992 lots with a decrease of 5,504 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 81,140 lots with no change [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis (Shandong - 08) was 102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan compared to the previous day; the 08 - 09 inter - period spread was 24 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 185, a decrease of 20; the East China - South China spread was 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,785 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,915 yuan/ton, while the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 4,058 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton with no change, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,841 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,905 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate was 34.91%, a decrease of 1.00% compared to the previous period; the refinery inventory rate was 25.87%, a decrease of 0.35% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Capacity Utilization**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. The reason was that although some refineries reduced production, some major refineries in Shandong and Jinling Petrochemical maintained stable production [13]. - **Maintenance Volume**: From July 24 - 30, 2025, the domestic asphalt plant maintenance volume was 60.4 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons or 5.9% compared to the previous week. The reason was that some refineries in Xinjiang and Shandong resumed asphalt production [13]. - **Shipment Volume**: From July 23 - 29, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 41.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. In the Northeast region, refinery production decreased and high - price transactions slowed down, while in the East China region, shipments increased significantly after supply recovery [13]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the resumption progress of upstream production [1]. - For polysilicon, the short - term sentiment has cooled down, and the market should be treated as a callback [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2509): The closing price was 8,760 yuan/ton, with a change of - 525 yuan compared to T - 1, - 930 yuan compared to T - 5, and 995 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 410,371 lots, with a decrease of 194,790 lots compared to T - 1, 762,508 lots compared to T - 5, and 819,936 lots compared to T - 22. The open interest was 212,932 lots, with a decrease of 29,745 lots compared to T - 1, 123,342 lots compared to T - 5, and 148,144 lots compared to T - 22 [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2509): The closing price was 49,130 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5,575 yuan compared to T - 1 and 4,635 yuan compared to T - 5. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, with an increase of 595 lots compared to T - 1 and a decrease of 557,957 lots compared to T - 5. The open interest was 126,989 lots, with a decrease of 37,501 lots compared to T - 1 and 45,575 lots compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis and Spread Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium (against East China Si5530) was + 1,175 yuan/ton, with a change compared to T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22. The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was - 135 yuan/ton, and the cost of buying near - month and selling continuous - first inter - period was 62.5 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract to continuous - first spread was 505.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price and Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of East China oxygen - passing Si5530 was 9,800 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 200 yuan compared to T - 1 and 300 yuan compared to T - 5. The profit of Xinjiang new - standard 553 silicon plants was - 2,536 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 525 yuan compared to T - 1 and 1,180 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon was 46,500 yuan/ton, with an increase of 500 yuan compared to T - 5 and 12,000 yuan compared to T - 22. The profit of polysilicon enterprises was - 17.6 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.6 yuan compared to T - 1 and 0.7 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 540,000 tons, with an increase of 0.5 million tons compared to T - 5 and a decrease of 1.2 million tons compared to T - 22. The enterprise inventory was 171,000 tons, with a decrease of 0.61 million tons compared to T - 5 and 5.2 million tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 229,000 tons, with a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared to T - 5 and 4.3 million tons compared to T - 22 [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - For industrial silicon, the price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 340 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan was 320 yuan/ton. The price of washed coking coal in Xinjiang was 1,250 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia was 885 yuan/ton [2]. - For polysilicon, the price of N - type re - feeding polysilicon trichlorosilane was 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of silicon powder (99 silicon) was 10,450 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News In September 2024, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a notice to further regulate the supervision of existing "agricultural - photovoltaic complementary" photovoltaic composite projects. For legally and合规ly built photovoltaic composite projects using general cultivated land to place photovoltaic arrays, land - using units must fulfill planting obligations, and hardening the ground, destroying the plough layer, and leaving land idle are prohibited [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook (the range of trend intensity is [- 2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish) [4].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 1 日 黄金：FOMC 释放鹰派预期 白银：高位回落 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2510 | 770.28 | -0.45% | 770.92 | 0.12% | | | 黄金T+D | 3,342.30 | 0.43% | 766.40 | 0.07% | | | Comex黄金2510 | #N/A | #N/A | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | #N/A | #N/A | - | - | | | 沪银2510 | 9008 | -2.00% | 8935.00 | -1.37% | | 价格 | 白银T+D | 8960 | -2.2 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report focuses on LPG and propylene, analyzing their fundamentals, market trends, and relevant industry information as of August 1, 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The import cost of LPG is decreasing, and the raw material cost support for propylene is weakening [1][2] Group 4: Fundamental Data Futures Prices - PG2509 closed at 4,003 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.21%, and 3,984 in the night session with a decline of 0.47% - PG2510 closed at 4,441 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.67%, and 4,429 in the night session with a decline of 0.27% - PL2601 closed at 6,545 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.38%, and 6,520 in the night session with a decline of 0.38% - PL2602 closed at 6,609 yesterday with a daily decline of 0.27%, and 6,604 in the night session with a decline of 0.08% [2] Position and Trading Volume - PG2509 had a trading volume of 131,528 yesterday, an increase of 55,838 from the previous day, and an open interest of 85,719, an increase of 2,044 - PG2510 had a trading volume of 31,328 yesterday, an increase of 10,611 from the previous day, and an open interest of 66,367, an increase of 920 - PL2601 had a trading volume of 2,343 yesterday, a decrease of 326 from the previous day, and an open interest of 4,700, a decrease of 292 - PL2602 had a trading volume of 202 yesterday, a decrease of 17 from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,156, a decrease of 149 [2] Spreads - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 447 yesterday, up from 398 the previous day - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 467 yesterday, up from 418 the previous day - The spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was -295 yesterday, up from -350 the previous day - The spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was -195 yesterday, down from -145 the previous day - The spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was -220 yesterday, down from -195 the previous day [2] Key Industrial Chain Data - The PDH operating rate was 72.6% this week, down from 73.1% last week - The MTBE operating rate was 67.8% this week, down from 69.0% last week - The alkylation operating rate was 46.2% this week, down from 46.9% last week [2] Group 5: Market Trends - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0, indicating a neutral market trend for both [6] Group 6: Market Information - Saudi Aramco's August 2025 CP prices are out, with propane at $520/ton, down $55/ton from last month, and butane at $490/ton, also down $55/ton from last month. The landed cost in US dollars is $548/ton for propane and $518/ton for butane, and the landed cost in RMB is about 4,327 yuan/ton for propane and 4,090 yuan/ton for butane [8] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans, including those of Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [9] - There are also multiple domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, including those of Shengli Heavy Oil, Haike Ruilin, etc. [9]