国信期货研究 Page 1 主要结论 焦煤焦炭：需求边际回升 短线反弹 宏观面，人民银行发布一季度金融数据显示，2025 年一季度整体社融增量 由政府债券支持，显示目前私人部门需求仍相对疲软，4 月开始我国面临更加复 杂的发布环境的背景下，政府加杠杆仍将在大类资产价格表现中发挥重要作用。 居民端信贷，中长期贷款同比多增 531 亿元，短贷少增 67 亿元，中长期贷款有 所回升，但短期消费需求有待修复。从价格表现来看，春节之后，市场整体表现 疲弱，我们将延续上一期报告的观点："价格压力持续存在"。相较于 CPI 部分分 项的积极变化，3 月份，PPI 环比、同比跌幅均有扩大。总体来看，工业品出厂 价格下行压力比居民消费价格压力更甚。 海外宏观，4 月以来，伴随特朗普政府对关税的不断加码，中美两方制裁与 反制措施的不断升级，截至目前，白宫确认，美国对中国关税总税率为 145%中 方宣布自 4 月 12 日起将对美加征关税由 84%提升到 125%。当地时间 4 月 17 日， 美国总统特朗普对记者表示，他不想继续提高对中国的关税了，因为这可能会使 两国之间的贸易陷入停滞。特朗普政府的反复使得海外局势不确定性增加， ...

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货宏观月报 宏观 国内再提超常规逆周期调节 美国关税政策高度不确定 2025 年 4 月 27 日 ⚫ 主要结论 中共中央政治局强调，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，再提超常规 逆周期调节。4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和 经济工作。会议指出，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自 己的事，以高质量发展的确定性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。宏观政 策基调方面，会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，对宏观政策 的落地提出一定要求；会议再提超常规逆周期调节。财政政策方面，会议强 调，加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。货币政策方面， 会议强调，适时降准降息，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性 金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。后期，基础货币投放， 仍需关注国债买卖、买断式逆回购、新的结构性货币政策工具以及新型政策 性金融工具。由于美国关税政策，我国对外贸易相对承压，人民币短期有贬 值压力；但是，中长期来看，人民币仍然不宜过度贬值。从年内在岸美元兑 人民币走势来看，或以宽幅波动为主，区间或为 7.0 至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the post - holiday coastal market, overall supply may increase steadily while demand decreases, and the market transaction center may decline overall [3][66] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In April, methanol futures fluctuated weakly. The main contract completed the shift, and the new main contract MA2509 fell to around 2,250 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of over 6%. The spot market showed a differentiated trend, with inland prices rising and port prices weakening. By the end of the month, the Inner Mongolia price was 2,262 yuan/ton, up more than 5% from the beginning of the month, and the Taicang market price was 2,430 yuan/ton, down more than 6% from the beginning of the month [1][5] - The port basis weakened, and the inland basis strengthened significantly. There was a situation of port goods flowing back to the inland in the spot market [7] - The methanol markets in Europe and the United States declined continuously. The US price was around 92 cents/gallon, and the European price was around 271 - 275 euros/ton. There was more wait - and - see sentiment [11] 3.2 Analysis of Methanol Supply and Demand 3.2.1 Supply Recovery with Low Inventory Pressure in Production Areas - The low point of the national methanol operating load has passed, and maintenance devices are gradually restarting. During the traditional spring maintenance period in the inland, the overall domestic operation declined, and the supply in some regions tightened. The methanol operating rate at the beginning of this year was at the highest level in the same period of previous years, then decreased during the spring maintenance, with the lowest average operating rate of about 72% in March. In April, the operating rate recovered to about 73%. Although the scale of spring maintenance this year was less than in previous years, the market supply decreased as expected, and the inventory in production areas remained low, supporting the inland prices [14] 3.2.2 Increasing Supply in Coastal Markets - In the first quarter, China's methanol imports were continuously low. In March, the import volume was only 473,000 tons, hitting a ten - year low. By late April, the coastal methanol inventory was about 690,000 tons, down about 350,000 tons from early March, and the available methanol in the coastal area was also low, which supported the previous port prices [2][27] - As Iranian devices restarted, the loading volume has basically recovered. From late April to May, the number of Iranian import vessels arriving at ports will increase, and the supply in the coastal market after the holiday may increase steadily. The import volume in May is expected to exceed 1 million tons, and the port supply may gradually become abundant [2][28] 3.2.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Import Profit and Arbitrage Window**: The international natural gas price first decreased and then increased, and is currently fluctuating around 3.5 dollars/MMBtu. The import cost of natural - gas - made methanol is around 1,700 yuan/ton. The import profit has increased significantly, and the import arbitrage window has opened, with more non - Iranian devices intending to go to China for arbitrage [38] - **Coal Market and Methanol Cost**: In April, the domestic thermal coal market continued to be weak. The production cost of coal - made methanol was around 1,800 yuan/ton, and the converted futures price continued to decline to 2,340 yuan/ton. The valuation has returned to the theoretical operating range, and the downward pressure has been relieved. Currently, the profit of coal - made methanol has continued to rise to around 500 yuan/ton, and manufacturers are more willing to start production, so the domestic supply is expected to increase [40] - **Demand Side**: The traditional downstream has provided stable demand. By late April, the weighted operating rate of traditional downstream was about 58%, slightly lower than at the beginning of the month but still about 5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period over the years. From the middle of the month, the demand decreased as the downstream methanol - to - olefins plants reduced their loads. The average operating load of methanol - to - olefins plants dropped to 74.65% by late April, and the average load of externally - purchased methanol MTO devices decreased significantly. The methanol - to - olefins sector is still in a large - scale loss state, and the market sentiment is bearish. However, the short - term flow of port goods back to the inland has alleviated the port pressure to some extent [2][44][45]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since April, hot-rolled coils have shown a weak trend with short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines. The tariff policies of the Trump administration in the United States have exceeded expectations, putting pressure on market sentiment and causing further drops in hot-rolled coil prices [3][5][24]. - This year, the supply of hot-rolled coils remains at a relatively high level, and the demand for plates, especially from domestic sources, is strong. However, due to the impact of tariffs, the growth rate of overall plate demand may be weaker than last year, making it difficult for steel prices to rise and more likely to fall [3][23][25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Since April, hot-rolled coils have short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines. Earlier in the year, steel had low inventory due to pessimistic expectations and active de-stocking of building materials. With approaching important meetings, market sentiment improved, and raw material prices strengthened, driving up hot-rolled coil prices. After the implementation of foreign tariff policies, prices dropped further [3][5][24]. - As hot-rolled coil prices declined, spot profits weakened slightly while futures profits were maintained. With policy stimuli, far-month contracts of hot-rolled coils performed better [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - In April, the supply of hot-rolled coils remained at a relatively high level, with the weekly output reaching a maximum of 3.3 million tons at the beginning of the year, and the supply of plates such as cold-rolled coils and medium-thick plates was also high year-on-year. The output of plates recovered quickly around the Spring Festival, indicating an early and strong start of plate demand [3][10][24]. - The output of rebar decreased before the Spring Festival, resulting in low inventory. After the Spring Festival, as rebar production capacity recovered, the overall steel output exceeded that of the same period last year, testing the terminal demand [11]. Inventory - In April, the inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased, with both the inventory level around the Spring Festival and the inventory reduction rate during the peak season lower than last year. Despite strong supply, the significant inventory reduction indicates a notable increase in demand [12]. - The inventory of rebar decreased year-on-year, but the inventory reduction rate after the Spring Festival was slow, indicating weak demand. The trend of strong plates and weak building materials continued [16]. Demand - The production capacity of terminal plate demand in industries such as home appliances, automobiles, and ships has been continuously strengthening, driving up plate demand. In March 2025, the national air conditioner output increased by about 9.3% year-on-year, and automobile production increased by 12%. However, export orders from home appliance enterprises are starting to decline, indicating the impact of tariffs on terminal exports [3][17][25]. - In the first quarter, the export volume of steel continued to increase year-on-year, reaching a new high in March. The US tariff policy affects both direct steel exports from China and the exports of home appliances and automobiles, directly reducing steel demand. After the implementation of the tariff policy, China's exports may shift to regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, but it will take time to reach a new trade balance [20][23][25]. Summary and Outlook - The situation of hot-rolled coils in April is similar to the market review, with short-term spikes followed by oscillations and declines, affected by tariff policies. The supply remains high, and the demand for plates is strong domestically but weakening in exports due to tariffs, making it difficult for steel prices to rise [24][25].

国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货纸浆月报 探底回升，关注需求恢复情况 纸浆 2025 年 04 月 27 日 主要结论 进口方面，据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025 年 3 月，我国进口 纸浆 324.9 万吨，进口金额为 2004.2 百万美元，平均单价为 616.87 美元/吨。 1-3 月累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加 5%、4.9%。其中 2025 年 3 月针叶 浆进口量 79.76 万吨，环比减少 0.07%，同比减少 6.47%；3 月阔叶浆进口量 146.99 万吨，环比减少 8.47%，同比增加 22.19%。 港口库存方面，国内纸浆港口库存环比仍处上升趋势，但涨速有所降低。据 卓创资讯数据监测显示，截至 2025 年 4 月 24 日，保定地区、天津港、日照港、 青岛港、常熟港、上海港、高栏港及南沙港等中国主要地区及港口周度纸浆库存 量 209.78 万吨，环比上升 0.88%，涨幅收窄 3.20 个百分点。 分析师：黎静宜 从业资格号：F3082440 投资咨询号：Z0019052 电话：021-55007766-305180 邮箱：15561@guosen.com.cn ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Internationally, Brazil's new - year sugar production is下调. India's sugar production is expected to be less than 26 million tons, making exports difficult. Brazil's initial crushing progress has increased significantly year - on - year, and overall consumption lacks a boost [2][26]. - Domestically, the sales of domestic sugar are progressing rapidly, and inventory pressure is low. Droughts in major domestic producing areas have affected sugarcane growth. However, the previous opening of the domestic import window may lead to a significant increase in imports in May. Consumption is entering the off - season. Sugar prices mainly depend on later weather changes. If risks are magnified, sugar prices have upward momentum; if there is sufficient rainfall later, sugar prices may face pressure from the off - season and increased imports and may decline [2][26]. - The recommended operation is to conduct band trading on Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][27]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. Affected by the negative news of the US tariff increase and the decline of the external market, Zhengzhou sugar followed the downward trend, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 5,856 yuan/ton on April 16. Then it rebounded due to weather disasters in major producing areas [5]. - In April, international sugar prices continued to fluctuate downward. Macro - events and strong production at the beginning of Brazil's sugar - crushing season put pressure on the market, with the main contract reaching a minimum of 17.36 cents/pound on April 16 [5]. 2. International Market Analysis 2.1 Brazil: Strong Production Start and Significantly Reduced Inventory - Brazil's sugar inventory in the first quarter of the year decreased by about 70% compared with the historical average. By the end of March, the inventory dropped to 2.61 million tons, a ten - year low, prompting sugar mills to increase sugar production [7]. - The sugar - making ratio in southern Brazil at the beginning of the crushing season was 43%, much higher than 33.5% in the same period last year and market expectations. The attractiveness of sugar production is high, and it is expected that Brazil has added some production capacity. Reduced rainfall is beneficial for the start of the crushing season, and supply data is expected to maintain a large year - on - year increase, continuously pressuring the market [7]. 2.2 India: Production Nearing End and High Domestic Sugar Prices - As of April 15, 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, India had crushed 271 million tons of sugarcane and produced 25.425 million tons of sugar, with 37 sugar mills still in operation. In the same period of the previous season, 74 sugar mills were not yet finished, having crushed 307 million tons of sugarcane and produced 31.165 million tons of sugar. The average sugar - production rate was 9.37%, lower than 10.16% in the previous season [11]. - This season's sugar production is expected to be 25.9 million tons. With production below 26 million tons, exports may be restricted later. Supported by tightened domestic supply, domestic sugar prices in India remain above 19.5 cents/pound [11]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis 3.1 Domestic Production Nearing End and Inventory Declining - As of the end of March 2025, in the 2024/25 sugar - crushing season, 43 sugar mills in Yunnan and 1 in Guangxi were still in production, and all sugar mills in other provinces (regions) had stopped. The country produced 10.7479 million tons of sugar this season, a year - on - year increase of 1.1748 million tons or 12.27%. The cumulative sugar sales were 5.9958 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.261 million tons or 26.64%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 55.79%, 6.33 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The industrial inventory as of March was 4.7521 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86,500 tons [14]. - In the short term, domestic supply pressure is very limited. Before the increase in imports, sugar mills are expected to maintain a price - holding attitude. Although there will be incremental supply later, it will also be the peak consumption season. Overall, the firm spot price this season will continue to support the futures market [14]. 3.2 Severe Drought in Guangxi and Attention to Later Weather - Since the beginning of 2025, Guangxi has experienced the most severe autumn - winter - spring continuous drought since 1961. As of April 21, 97.5% of the region's land was affected by meteorological drought, with 68.7% reaching the extreme drought level, affecting 52 counties (districts) in 11 cities. It has caused 405,000 people to be affected, 513,000 hectares of crops to be damaged, and direct economic losses of 210 million yuan [17]. - The drought has severely affected sugarcane production in Guangxi. During the critical period of spring - planted sugarcane emergence and ratoon sugarcane tillering from April to May, the continuous drought has led to a 30% - 50% decrease in the sugarcane emergence rate compared with normal years, and the survival rate of ratoon sugarcane in some areas is less than 50%. The drought has also weakened photosynthesis and reduced the sucrose accumulation rate, affecting the sugar - production rate. It is expected that Guangxi's sugarcane output in the 2024/25 season will decline significantly [18]. 3.3 Expected Import Surge in May and Tighter Syrup Control - In March 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. From January to March 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 150,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.05 million tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.61 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45 million tons. The import contraction was greater than market expectations [23]. - In March 2025, China imported 132,800 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons. From January to March, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 242,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 83,700 tons. As of the end of March in the 2024/25 season, the cumulative imports of syrup and premixed powder were 881,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 140,200 tons [23]. - The import window has opened several times since January 21, March 6, and around April 15, 2025. It is highly likely that imports will significantly increase in May, with the total exceeding 1 million tons [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April 2025, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over and showed a strong and volatile pattern. The AP2510 contract broke through the February high and reached a new recent high. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season provided support for the market. The new - season apples are entering the flowering period, which is prone to weather speculation by funds. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In April 2025, the main contract of apple futures completed the roll - over, showing a strong and volatile pattern. The AP2510 contract refreshed the recent high. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season, along with the new - season apples entering the flowering period, led to a strong market [5]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Cold - Storage Inventory Lower than the Same Period in Previous Years - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory was about 2.4376 million tons, 1.6239 million tons less than the same period last year. The inventory in Shandong was about 1.3212 million tons, and that in Shaanxi was about 0.6775 million tons. The quality of apples in the western region was better than that in the eastern region. The remaining inventory of farmers' goods in the northwest was small, and some farmers showed a reluctance to sell. The low inventory reduced the sales pressure [13]. 3.2.2 Good Shipping Performance in Production Areas - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 18.45%, 3.23 percentage points lower than last week and 12.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a destocking rate of 70.99%. The cold - storage capacity utilization ratio in Shandong was 26.80%, a decrease of 3.83 percentage points, and that in Shaanxi was 17.83%, a decrease of 3.18 percentage points. The 4 - 5 month period is the peak outbound period. With the temperature rising and the storage cost increasing, the willingness of farmers and merchants to sell may increase, and the destocking progress is expected to remain fast [21]. 3.2.3 Good Import Performance - The overall import scale of fresh apples in China is small. In 2010 - 2020, the import volume accounted for only about 1% of the total output. In March 2025, the import volume was 0.0095 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535.68% and a year - on - year increase of 167.07%. The cumulative import volume from January to March 2025 was 0.00133 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 123.88%. The import has recovered [25]. 3.2.4 Good Export Performance in the First Quarter - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In March 2025, the export volume was about 0.0961 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40.82% and a year - on - year increase of 1.71%. The export growth rate in the second quarter of 2025 may decline but remain at a high level. The increase in export volume will drive cold - storage destocking [28]. 3.2.5 Seasonal Fruits Not in Large - Scale Supply, Benefiting Apple Demand Recovery - In April 2025, fruit prices were strong. The average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits was about 7.6 yuan/kg, slightly higher than the same period last year. The small supply and high prices of seasonal fruits were beneficial to the recovery of apple demand [33]. 3.2.6 Apple Consumption Seasonal Analysis - Months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December. Months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October. The price trends are related to factors such as inventory, new - season apple supply, and seasonal fruit impact [37][38]. 3.2.7 New - Season Apples Gradually Entering the Flowering Period - In the Shandong production area, the apple flowering period is slightly ahead, but the pollination and fruit - setting in Yiyuan are affected by rainfall. In the Shaanxi production area, most are in the full - bloom stage, and some areas have completed fruit - setting. The Gansu production area is gradually entering the flowering period, and some orchards may have poor fruit - setting [41]. 3.3 Market Outlook - As of April 24, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory is low, and the sales pressure is reduced. The inventory ratio is decreasing, and the export volume is increasing. The 4 - 5 month period is the peak outbound period. With the temperature rising and the storage cost increasing, the destocking progress is expected to remain fast. The low inventory of old - season apples and the sales peak season provide support for the market. It is recommended to take a bullish approach in operation [43][44]

/ 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货铁矿石月报 预期悲观 铁矿延续弱势 铁矿石 2025 年 4 月 27 日 主要结论 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分析逻辑基于本人的职业理 解，通过合理判断 并得出结论，力求 客观、公正，结论不受任何第三方的 授意、影响，特此声明。 独立性申明： 分析师：马钰 从业资格号：F03094736 投资咨询号：Z0020872 电话：021-55007766-305161 邮箱：15627@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 以信为本 点石成金 2025 年 4 月份铁矿石走势偏弱，主力 09 合约弱势震荡下跌。4 月初，虽然 在季节性旺季，铁矿石现实供需情况延续强势，不过在粗钢压减政策预期带 动下，铁矿石回落到相对低位，同时越南等地区对中国钢材反倾销，美国特 朗普政府也传言对中国加征关税，铁矿石弱势震荡。随着特朗普宣布加征对 等关税，力度超出预期，市场情绪悲观，铁矿石快速下跌。不过铁矿石的供 需情况延续强势，供应端出现明显回落，铁水产量超预期走强，库存明显去 化，在悲观情绪释放后，铁矿石短线反弹。 4 月份铁矿石供应回落，主要是随着 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of domestic cotton is stable with a projected slight increase in planting area, and the market focus is on consumption. The export situation is severe due to tariff hikes, and domestic consumption is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton (Zhengmian) is under pressure, and its performance is affected by macro - changes. If the trade situation improves, it may emerge from the weak trend. [1][27] - The global cotton market remains under pressure, with the USDA's April report increasing the global inventory. However, short - term consumption of US cotton is stimulated by Southeast Asian countries' rush to export, which supports the price of US cotton. The political uncertainty of the US president brings high market risks and uncertain impacts on the cotton market. [2][27] - The operation suggestion is to mainly conduct short - term trading in Zhengmian. [2][28] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In April, Zhengmian experienced a cliff - like decline and then maintained weak oscillations. After the US unexpectedly increased tariffs on April 7, Zhengmian dropped with a gap, and the panic spread. On April 9, the main contract of Zhengmian reached a minimum of 12,490 yuan/ton and then oscillated at a low level. [5] - The international cotton market declined and then rebounded in April. After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs, the global trade situation was tense, and US cotton reached a minimum of 62.05 cents/pound on April 4. Then, as the market digested the negative impact and the trade situation improved, the price of US cotton rebounded and basically recovered the decline. [5] 2. Domestic Market Analysis 2.1 Weak Operating Rates - Due to the tense Sino - US trade situation, the textile and weaving industries suffered a severe blow in April. As of April 18, the operating rate of textile enterprises was 54.8%, remaining unchanged since February 28. The operating rate of weaving enterprises was 52.4%, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the previous week and at the lowest level in five years. [7] - As of April 18, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 18.7 days, up 0.3 days from the previous week and down 5.1 days year - on - year. The finished - product inventory of weaving enterprises was 31.4 days, down 0.3 days from the previous week and up 4.5 days year - on - year. The inventory accumulation of both was obvious, with the weaving enterprises' inventory at a high level compared with the same period in previous years. [10] 2.2 Escalation of Sino - US Trade Conflicts - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced a national emergency and a series of tariff policies, including a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on all trading partners effective on April 5, and "reciprocal tariffs" of 10 - 50% on trade - deficit countries. The policy of canceling the "small - value exemption" for Chinese exports under $800 will take effect on May 2. [12] - China announced multiple counter - measures on April 4, including imposing a 34% tariff on all US imports from April 10, suing the US at the WTO, and taking other relevant measures. [13] - The US continued to threaten to increase tariffs on China, and China synchronously raised tariffs on US imports. Later, the US tried to ease the international pressure, and both sides showed signs of potential negotiation. [14][15] - Compared with the 2018 trade war, the scope of this tariff measure is wider, hitting all trading partners. The US also imposed high tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, with comprehensive tax rates on some goods exceeding 60%, affecting their代工 economy. [16][17] - New models of trans - shipment trade are expected to emerge. Chinese enterprises can set up factories in Mexico through the USMCA to reduce tariffs, and African countries' cotton - related industrial parks enjoy zero - tariff treatment under the AGOA. [18] - The deterioration of the trade situation has a negative impact on the domestic and international cotton markets. China's textile and clothing exports to the US may see a sharp decline, and China's imports of US cotton are likely to stop. [19] 3. International Market Analysis 3.1 Weak Global Production and Consumption with a Slight Increase in Inventory - According to the USDA's April cotton supply - demand report, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are all declining, while the inventory is increasing. The global total output decreased by 69,000 bales, consumption decreased by 520,000 bales, and the monthly import volume declined. The global ending inventory in the 2024/25 season increased by more than 520,000 bales. [21][23] 3.2 Stronger US Cotton Exports with Southeast Asian Countries' Rush to Export - During the 90 - day suspension period of the "reciprocal tariff" given by the US government, Southeast Asian countries may make concessions in tariffs. Southeast Asian yarn mills and cotton trading enterprises are rushing to export, which stimulates short - term US cotton consumption. [25] - As of April 10, 2024/25, the total signed sales volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 2.527 million tons, accounting for 107% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 1.674 million tons, accounting for 66% of the total annual signed volume. [25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals market is in a resonance period of "black swan shocks" and "gray rhino risks". After the short - term emotional impact of the trade war, the low domestic inventory, policy support, industrial resilience, and long - term scarcity of resources will limit the downside space. In May, there is a risk of the demand side transitioning to the off - season. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of domestic macro - favorable policy expectations on prices and the phased support effect on demand. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with the price range between 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton. For alumina, it is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with the price range between 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [3][4][148]. - The US tariff policy is in a game stage, with uncertainties in the final implementation scope and impact. The negative impacts such as increased trade costs and decreased demand are relatively certain, which will suppress the overall non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term [3][146]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Alumina - In April, alumina prices bottomed out and then rebounded. The price dropped continuously from April 1st - 8th, hitting a low of 2,663 yuan/ton, and then rebounded on April 9th due to supply - side production cuts and potential risks at the mine end. However, the over - supply expectation limited the rebound height. As of April 25th, the main alumina contract 2509 closed at 2,846 yuan/ton, down 3.07% from March 31st [6][7]. 3.1.2 Shanghai Aluminum - In April, Trump's tariff policy affected aluminum prices. After the unexpected tariff policy was introduced, the non - ferrous market tumbled, and then rebounded after the delay of tariffs on some countries. Aluminum prices showed certain resilience, with the price briefly hitting a low of 19,000 yuan/ton on April 7th and then rising. As of April 25th, the main Shanghai Aluminum contract 2506 closed at 20,030 yuan/ton, down 2.2% from March 31st [9][11][13]. 3.2 Macro Hotspot Tracking 3.2.1 Interest Rate Cut Path Impacted by Tariff Policy - In the first quarter of 2025, the Fed maintained the federal funds target rate unchanged. After the release of inflation data in February, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts decreased. In March, the inflation data cooled unexpectedly, increasing the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. After the release of the CPI data in March, the market almost fully priced in a Fed interest rate cut in June, but Fed officials emphasized controlling inflation and were not eager to cut interest rates in the short term. Trump pressured the Fed to cut interest rates immediately, and the path of interest rate cuts will be greatly affected by the tariff policy [19][20][24]. 3.2.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - In April, Trump introduced a new round of more comprehensive and far - reaching tariff policies, which had a negative impact on the market. China countered by imposing a 34% tariff on all imported goods from the US. Then Trump postponed the tariffs on non - retaliatory countries for 90 days and exempted some electronic products. The trade war between China and the US escalated, and the tariff policy will lead to a decline in global demand and economic growth, affecting the prices of non - ferrous metals. China's aluminum exports to the US will be affected, and the export demand is expected to decline [25][26][29]. 3.2.3 Domestic Macro Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; the comprehensive PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points. The consumer price index decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The industrial producer price index also decreased. The growth rate of M2 and M1 decreased. Social consumption, industrial added value, and GDP all showed growth [31][32][36]. 3.3 Aluminum Market Analysis 3.3.1 Alumina - **Raw Material Supply**: In March, China's aluminum ore imports increased significantly, with imports from Guinea reaching a record high. In April, there was a potential supply risk at a mine in Guinea, but it had little impact. The arrival volume of bauxite is expected to increase in May - June. Overall, the supply of bauxite is expected to continue to increase [41][42][44]. - **Cost and Profit**: In April, the alumina cost continued to decline, but the price fell faster, and the industry's average loss increased. The cost is mainly affected by bauxite prices, which are expected to decline but with limited space. The industry's profit recovery depends more on supply - side adjustments. If the cumulative production cuts increase in May, the industry's loss pressure may be alleviated [45][48][54]. - **Supply**: In April, production cuts, restarts, and new capacity releases coexisted. The production cut scale expanded, giving the futures price upward momentum, but the long - term over - supply expectation remained unchanged, suppressing the price rebound. The overall supply of alumina is expected to increase in the future, and it is necessary to pay attention to the capacity operation in high - cost areas and the release speed of new capacity [55][60][61]. - **Demand**: Domestic demand for alumina is relatively stable, while export demand is weakening. Overseas alumina production has increased, and the price has decreased, narrowing the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. It is expected that the future export data will decline, and the overall supply of alumina will exceed demand [62][66][69]. - **Spot Market**: In April, the bearish sentiment in the alumina spot market eased slightly, and the price rebounded in the middle and late April due to production cuts. The price in the north may rebound, while the price in the south is expected to be stable. The rebound space of the spot price is limited [72][75][78]. - **Futures Inventory**: Since April, the total alumina futures inventory has fluctuated between 200,000 - 300,000 tons, at a relatively high level in history [81]. 3.3.2 Aluminum - **Cost and Profit**: In April, the electrolytic aluminum smelting cost decreased due to the decline in alumina and electricity prices. The industry's average profit narrowed but remained at a high level. In May, the cost is expected to fluctuate slightly, and the industry profit is expected to remain above 3,000 yuan/ton [84][88]. - **Supply**: In March - April, the domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remained strong. The capacity utilization rate was high, and the output increased year - on - year. Overseas production also increased. In April, the import loss narrowed, and the import volume is expected to decline [92][94]. - **Inventory**: In April, the aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline due to the peak consumption season and the increase in the aluminum - water ratio. In May, the inventory decline rate may slow down, and the support for aluminum prices will weaken [100][103]. - **Demand**: In April, the peak demand season continued, and the aluminum price was resilient. However, from May, the domestic demand will enter a four - month off - season, and the export demand is weak. The downstream processing enterprise's start - up rate was above 60%, with differences among different sectors. Macro - policies are expected to support the long - term aluminum consumption [111][115]. - **End - use Demand**: - **Real Estate**: In March, the real estate development climate index increased, but the investment, construction, and sales data were still negative. The demand for aluminum in the real estate sector remained weak [116][117]. - **Home Appliances**: The "trade - in" policy promoted home appliance consumption and aluminum demand. However, the export demand is expected to decline due to the tariff policy. The industry's growth rate will slow down, and the competition will intensify [120][125][129]. - **Automobiles**: In March, automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. Trump's tariff policy on automobiles has an uncertain impact, but the overall demand may be negatively affected. The new energy vehicle export is not overly pessimistic, and the aluminum demand in the automobile sector is expected to continue to increase [130][132]. - **Photovoltaic**: In the first quarter, the photovoltaic industry had a "rush - installation" period, driving up the demand for aluminum. However, after the window period, the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is expected to decline. Grid investment is expected to increase, which will benefit the demand for aluminum cables [137][139][140]. - **Export**: In March, China's aluminum exports decreased year - on - year. Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates and tariff policies, the export volume is expected to continue to decline in April [141]. 3.4 Outlook - **Alumina**: Cost support and production cuts will give short - term upward momentum to the alumina price, but in the medium and long term, it will be under pressure due to over - supply. It is expected to continue box - type fluctuations, with a price range of 2,700 - 3,200 yuan/ton [83][144][145]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The US tariff policy is uncertain, but it will suppress non - ferrous metal prices in the medium and long term. The electrolytic aluminum industry profit is expected to remain high. The supply is strong, but the demand will weaken in the medium term. It is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will fluctuate strongly, with a price range of 19,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [146][147][148].