| 2025-07-23 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-07-17 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124160.00 | 123220.00 | 119880.00 | 940.00 | - | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 124360.00 | 123370.00 | 119970.00 | 990.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124520.00 | 123540.00 | 120090.00 | 980.00 | | | | | | 940.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 124710.00 | 123770.00 | 120330.00 | W | 124360.00 | 123370.00 | 收盘价 | 119880.00 | 990.00 | | | | | | 3 | 上海期银 | 成交量(手) | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View In the short - term, policy expectations have a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The supply pressure of urea remains high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons. Although 7 - month top - dressing demand supports prices, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand doesn't supplement, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton on July 24, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 was 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 was 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68% [1]. - Domestic spot prices: In most regions, prices decreased. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton, a 1.09% decline; in Henan, it fell from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton, a 1.08% decline [1]. - Upstream costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1000 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) and melamine in various regions remained stable [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton to 6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - Spread: The 01 - 05 spread increased from - 14 yuan/ton to - 8 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Important Information On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2509 was 1775 yuan/ton, the highest was 1796 yuan/ton, the lowest was 1768 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1785 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1782 yuan/ton. The position volume was 173,791 lots [1]. 3.4 Fundamental Situation - Supply: Urea supply pressure is high, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventory is slightly decreasing, mainly due to increased port collection. Upstream enterprise inventory is still around 750,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The top - dressing demand in July supports prices, but if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient, prices will face downward pressure [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1] Core View of the Report - The fundamental outlook for methanol is weak, but short - term policy expectations have a greater impact than the fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. The port inventory is likely to continue to increase, putting pressure on the spot price in East China [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 rose from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 rose from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1] - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in most regions increased slightly, with the largest increase in the MA09 futures price. The price in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1] - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhuos Q5500 increased by 0.56%, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 1.48%, while the price of Datong Q5500 remained unchanged [1] - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1] 2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88% [1] - **Methanol Downstream Profits**: The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73%, the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23% [1] 3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated and rose, with increased trading volume and decreased positions. All contracts had transactions during the trading day [1] - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at a fixed load. The loading speed at the port is expected to increase in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1]

| 贵金属日评20250725: 美国初请失业金仍属低于前值,欧洲央行7月暂停降息等待关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-18 | 收盘价 | 778.74 | 1.72 | 792. 90 | 777.02 | -14.16 | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 221277.00 | 44, 422. 00 | 286795.00 | 109, 940. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 11, 169.00 | 213456.00 | 222387.00 | 202287.00 | -8, 931. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358.00 | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core View - The natural rubber price may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. The synthetic rubber price may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data Natural Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15245, up 240 from the previous day; the trading volume was 522391 lots; the open interest was 210844 lots; the registered warrant volume was 186680, down 20 from the previous day; the natural rubber basis was - 270, down 240 from the previous day [1]. - Regarding the daily price differences of standard rubber SCRWF in different regions compared to Shanghai, the Tianjin - Shanghai difference was - 125 (unchanged), the Shandong - Shanghai difference was - 200 (unchanged), and the Yunnan - Shanghai difference was - 325 (unchanged) [1]. - For the natural rubber monthly spread, the near - month minus the first - continuous contract was - 90, down 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 15, up 5 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was - 10, down 35 from the previous day [1]. Synthetic Rubber Futures - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12285, up 410 from the previous day; the trading volume was 148642 lots; the open interest was 48828 lots; the registered warrant volume was 9840 (unchanged); the synthetic rubber basis was - 535, down 343.33 from the previous day [1]. - The North - South difference of cis - butadiene rubber in the synthetic rubber basis: the South China - East China difference was - 75, up 25 from the previous day; another difference was - 25, down 60 from the previous day [1]. - For the synthetic rubber monthly spread, the first - continuous minus the second - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day; the first - continuous minus the third - continuous contract was 40, up 20 from the previous day [1]. 2. Supply Side - In the natural rubber main producing areas, Thailand and Vietnam will have stable weather and less precipitation in the next few days, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Yunnan and other places [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, up 3.21% from last week; the weekly capacity utilization rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. - As of July 24, the daily after - tax profit of China's styrene - butadiene rubber emulsion polymerization method was - 168.14 yuan/ton, up 110.62 yuan/ton from the previous day; the daily after - tax profit of China's SBS solution polymerization was 150.44 yuan/ton, down 53.1 yuan/ton from the previous day; the after - tax profit of cis - butadiene rubber solution polymerization process was - 787.61 yuan/ton, up 88.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. 3. Inventory Side - As of July 18, 2025, the weekly total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212.92 thousand tons, down 0.67 thousand tons from last week; the weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 1.37 million tons, down 0.12 million tons from last week; the bonded area inventory was 9.19 million tons, down 0.07 million tons from last week [1]. - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12796 tons, up 150 tons from last week [1]. 4. Cost Side - The global natural rubber supply has entered the increasing period, and the main producing areas at home and abroad have fully started tapping. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15600 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction of crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased. As of July 24, 2025, the daily average price of Chinese butadiene (99.5%) was 90887.5 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 23, the weekly port inventory of Chinese butadiene was 15.7 thousand tons, down 4.3 thousand tons from last week [1]. 5. Demand Side - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, down 0.08% from last week; the weekly operating load rate of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, down 0.12% from last week [1]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the national automobile market retail sales were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The passenger car sales in June were 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month. The truck sales in June were 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month, and the tire supporting demand has increased [1].

贵金属周报(黄金与白银) 特朗普政府持续施压鲍威尔尽快降息， 美国经济与就业数据表现相对景气 黄金和白银 1、美国参众两院通过稳定币相关法案且特朗普将准许养老基金等投资黄金、数字货币等资产；进口关 税推升商品价格致美国6月消费端通胀CPI年率有所升高，初请失业金人数为21.7万低于预期和前值，但因 特朗普政府持续施压鲍威尔实施降息，使美联储9月降息概率有所升高但12月降息概率有所下降。 2、欧洲央行7月暂停降息使存款机制利率维持2%。欧元区与德法7月制造业PMI为49.8/49.2/48.4均延 续回升，欧元区(德国)6月消费者物价指数CPI年率为2%(2%)持平预期但高于前值(低于预期和前值)，拉加 德表示欧美贸易冲突升级或使通胀承压，使市场预期欧洲央行25年底前或降息1次左右。 3、英国央行5月关键利率下降25个基点至4.25%，延续24年10月至25年9月减持1000亿英镑政府债券。 英国6月消费者物价指数CPI（核心CPI）年率为3.6%（3.7%）高于预期和前值，7月SPGI制造(服务)业PMI为 48.2(51.2)高(低)于预期和前值，但因4-5月国内生产总值GDP月率连续为负，使英国央行8月降 ...

| 贵金属日评20250725: 美国初请失业金仍属低于前值,欧洲央行7月暂停降息等待关税 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-18 | 收盘价 | 778.74 | 1.72 | 792. 90 | 777.02 | -14.16 | | | | | 成交量 | 331217.00 | 221277.00 | 44, 422. 00 | 286795.00 | 109, 940. 00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 11, 169.00 | 213456.00 | 222387.00 | 202287.00 | -8, 931. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 29358.00 | 28857.00 | 28857.00 | 501.00 | 501.00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The "anti-involution" sentiment continues, with significant differences between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or buy out - of - the - money put options [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volume Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, the closing prices of the near - month contract, continuous - one contract, continuous - two contract, and continuous - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 76,500 yuan/ton, 76,680 yuan/ton, 75,000 yuan/ton, and 75,000 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 7,180 yuan/ton, 7,300 yuan/ton, 6,380 yuan/ton, and 6,380 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 1,770,283 lots, an increase of 436,124 lots from the previous day; the open interest was 436,727 lots, an increase of 74,673 lots [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts and the spreads between different lithium products showed various changes, such as the near - month - continuous - one spread decreased by 120 yuan/ton, and the continuous - one - continuous - two spread increased by 920 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 764 US dollars/ton, an increase of 14 US dollars/ton from the previous day; the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,080 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Downstream Product Prices - The prices of various lithium - related downstream products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and cathode materials showed different degrees of change. For example, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 70,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [2] 3.4 Market News - The draft of the price law amendment is open for public comments to regulate market price order and address "involution - style" competition [2] - On July 24, Argentina's economic minister approved Galan Lithium's $217 million lithium project in Catamarca Province to enter the new incentive program RIGI, and the total planned expenditure under this system reached $12.8 billion [2] 3.5 Supply and Demand and Inventory - Supply: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate decreased [2] - Demand: In June, the production scheduling of lithium iron phosphate increased, the production scheduling of ternary materials increased, the production scheduling of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production scheduling of lithium manganate decreased. The production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in June, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in June [2] - Inventory: The registered warehouse receipts were 11,654 tons (+900 tons), the social inventory increased, the smelters reduced inventory, and the downstream and other inventories were tight [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1]. 2. Report's Core View The report has a weak outlook on the fundamentals of methanol, but believes that short - term policy expectations outweigh the impact of fundamentals. It suggests investors to stay on the sidelines for now. The methanol valuation is relatively high, and the anti - involution policy may have limited impact on methanol production. Also, the high raw material inventory of downstream MTO enterprises will likely lead to continued destocking, which will suppress the spot price in East China [1]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1. Price Changes - **Methanol Futures Prices**: MA01 rose from 2497 yuan/ton to 2550 yuan/ton, a 2.12% increase; MA05 increased from 2428 yuan/ton to 2473 yuan/ton, a 1.85% increase; MA09 climbed from 2411 yuan/ton to 2480 yuan/ton, a 2.86% increase [1]. - **Methanol Spot Prices**: Prices in regions like Taicang, Shandong, Guangdong, Shaanxi increased, while those in Sichuan - Chongqing, Hubei, and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [1]. - **Coal Spot Prices**: The price of Buhootes Q5500 rose from 450 yuan/ton to 452.5 yuan/ton with a 0.56% increase, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased from 507.5 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase. The price of Datong Q5500 remained stable [1]. - **Industrial Natural Gas Prices**: Prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 3.2. Profit Situation - **Methanol Production Profits**: Coal - based methanol and natural - gas - based methanol profits remained unchanged. The profit of Northwest MTO and Yiquge remained unchanged, while the profit of East China MTO decreased by 19.88%, and the profit of acetic acid decreased by 11.23%. The profit of MTBE increased by 20.83%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 3.73% [1]. 3.3. Important Information - **Domestic Information**: The main methanol contract MA2509 fluctuated upwards, opening at 2417 yuan/ton, closing at 2480 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 1,252,918 lots and an open interest of 632,187 lots, showing increased trading volume and decreased open interest [1]. - **Foreign Information**: A 1 - million - ton methanol plant in a Middle - Eastern country is shut down, and multiple plants are operating at their existing loads. The loading speed at the port is expected to improve in mid - to - late July compared to early July [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term policy expectation has a greater impact on coal and coal - chemical industries than the fundamentals. The supply pressure of urea remains high, and the price may face significant downward pressure when domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see for now (View Score: 0) [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Changes - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, UR01 closed at 1796 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from July 23; UR05 closed at 1804 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; UR09 closed at 1785 yuan/ton, up 0.68%. The urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1775 yuan/ton, with a high of 1796 yuan/ton, a low of 1768 yuan/ton, and closed at 1785 yuan/ton, with a settlement price of 1782 yuan/ton, and a position of 173,791 lots [1]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: In most regions, domestic small - particle urea spot prices decreased on July 24 compared to July 23. For example, in Shandong, it dropped from 1830 yuan/ton to 1810 yuan/ton (-1.09%); in Henan, from 1850 yuan/ton to 1830 yuan/ton (-1.08%); in Hebei, from 1800 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton (-1.11%); in Jiangsu, from 1840 yuan/ton to 1820 yuan/ton (-1.09%). The price in the Northeast remained unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton [1]. - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi and downstream products such as compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan and melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged on July 24 compared to July 23 [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased from 37 yuan/ton on July 23 to 6 yuan/ton on July 24, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spread**: The spread of 01 - 05 increased from - 14 yuan/ton on July 23 to - 8 yuan/ton on July 24, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The supply pressure of urea is large, with daily production close to 200,000 tons, which is at a high level. The inventory of upstream enterprises is still about 750,000 tons, although the enterprise inventory has continued to decline slightly, mainly due to the increase in port collection [1]. - **Demand**: The top - dressing demand in July will support the price. However, if domestic agricultural demand weakens and export demand cannot be supplemented, the urea price will face significant downward pressure [1].