沪铜日评20250725:国内铜冶炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会年存量初现下降 | | 变量名称 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-23 | 2025-07-16 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜期货活跃合约 | 收盘价 | 79890 | 06866 | 77980 | 300.00 | | | | 成交量(手) | 161652 | 85686 | 60926 | -11,767.00 - | | | | 持仓量(手) | 181496 | 172895 | 160457 | 8, 601. 00 | | | | 库存(吨) | 16183 | 15535 | 50242 | 648.00 | | | | SMM 1#电解铜平均价 | 79795 | 79790 | 78060 | 5.00 - | | | 沪铜基差或现货升贴水 (现货与期货) | 沪铜县差 | -95 | 200 | 80 | -295.00 --- | | | | 广州电解铜现货升贴水 | -10 | -10 | 60 ...

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Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Natural rubber prices may fluctuate strongly due to the armed conflict between Thailand and Cambodia. Synthetic rubber prices may also fluctuate strongly supported by the improved macro - atmosphere and rising raw material costs. Attention should be paid to the support and pressure levels of natural rubber and butadiene [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data of Natural Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 15,245, a change of 240 from the previous day. The trading volume was 522,391 lots, and the open interest was 210,844 lots. The registered warrant volume was 186,680, a decrease of 20 from the previous day. The natural rubber basis was - 270, a decrease of 240 from the previous day [1]. 2. Market Data of Synthetic Rubber Futures Active Contracts - On July 24, 2025, the closing price was 12,285, an increase of 410 from the previous day. The trading volume was 148,642 lots, and the open interest was 48,828 lots. The registered warrant volume was 9,840, unchanged from the previous day. The synthetic rubber basis was - 535, a decrease of 343.33 from the previous day [1]. 3. Supply - side Situation - In the coming days, the weather in major natural rubber - producing areas such as Thailand and Vietnam will be stable with less precipitation, while Indonesia will have more precipitation. In domestic producing areas, there will be precipitation in Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, and Yunnan. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.43%, an increase of 3.21% from last week, and that of styrene - butadiene rubber was 78.79%, unchanged from last week [1]. 4. Inventory - side Situation - As of July 18, 2025, the total weekly warrant inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 212,920 tons, a decrease of 670 tons from last week. The weekly social inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 13,700 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from last week, and the bonded area inventory was 91,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from last week. As of July 24, 2025, the weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 12,796 tons, an increase of 150 tons from last week [1]. 5. Cost - side Situation - The global natural rubber supply has entered the production - increasing period, and major domestic and foreign producing areas are fully tapped. As of July 24, 2025, the purchase price of latex in the Songkhla market in Thailand was 55.3 baht per kilogram, unchanged from the previous day. The daily purchase price of natural rubber latex in the Hainan market was 15,600 yuan per ton, an increase of 150 yuan per ton from the previous day. For synthetic rubber, the short - term contradiction in crude oil is not prominent, and the oil price volatility has returned to shock. The price of upstream raw material butadiene has increased [1]. 6. Demand - side Situation - As of July 24, 2025, the weekly operating load rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 65.00%, a decrease of 0.08% from last week, and that of semi - steel tires in China was 76.58%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week. According to the Passenger Car Association, from June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national automobile market were 2.804 million vehicles, an increase of 217,700 vehicles from the previous month. The sales volume of passenger cars in June was 2.536 million vehicles, an increase of 184,300 vehicles from the previous month, and the sales volume of trucks in China in June was 316,000 vehicles, an increase of 24,500 vehicles from the previous month. The tire matching demand has increased [1]. 7. Price Support and Pressure Levels - For natural rubber, pay attention to the support level around 14,000 - 14,200 and the pressure level around 16,000 - 16,300. For butadiene, pay attention to the support level around 11,300 - 11,600 and the pressure level around 12,600 - 12,800 [1].

Report Highlights 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - No information provided in the content. 3. Summary by Relevant Information - **Raw Material Prices**: - Crude oil (CFR) price on July 25, 2025, was $567.38 per ton, up 0.1% from the previous value [1]. - Ethylene price in Northeast Asia on July 25, 2025, was $821 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - Cycloethane ex - factory price in East China on July 25, 2025, was $6450 per ton, unchanged [1]. - Inner Mongolia brown coal (tax - included) price on July 24, 2025, was $290 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - **Futures Prices**: - The settlement price of the main contract of a certain commodity on July 24, 2025, was $4469 per ton, up 0.65% [1]. - The settlement price of the near - month contract on July 24, 2025, was $4226 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - **Product Prices**: - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China on July 24, 2025, was $400 per ton, with a 0.00% change [1]. - The price index of polyester fiber on July 24, 2025, was $8600 per ton, up 1.1% [1]. - The price index of polyester short - fiber on July 24, 2025, was $6585 per ton, down 0.23% [1]. - **Industrial Chain Load Rates**: - The load rate of the PTA factory on July 24, 2025, was 0.00% [1]. - The load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms on July 24, 2025, was 8.63%, up 0.61% [1]. - **Profitability**: - The after - tax gross profit of a certain coal - based device on July 24, 2025, was $1641.11 per ton, down $9.18 [1].

| | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/7/25 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/7/24 2025/7/24 | 美元/桶 美元/桶 | 66.03 69.18 | 65.25 68.51 | 1.20% 0.98% | | 上 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/7/23 | 美元/吨 | 567.38 | 566.38 | 0.18% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国2025/7/23 | | 美元/吨 | 705.50 | 715.50 | -1.40% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/7/24 | 美元/吨 | 856.00 | 841.67 | 1.70% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/7/24 | 元/吨 | 4850.00 | 4784.00 | ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily review of lead and zinc markets on July 25, 2025, focusing on price movements, market fundamentals, and industry news [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Lead prices are expected to move in a range in the short - term due to a balanced supply - demand situation, tight raw materials, and expectations of the peak consumption season [1] - Zinc prices are also expected to move in a range in the short - term. Despite weak fundamentals with increased supply of ore and ingots and low demand in the off - season, strong market sentiment may support prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Movements - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,810 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; futures主力合约收盘价 was 23,015 yuan/ton, up 0.17% [1] Market Fundamentals - Lead - A lead smelter in North China is expected to fully resume production next week after a regular maintenance. Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead smelters decreased slightly due to equipment failure, and the start - up rate of secondary lead smelters is low due to high raw material costs. Demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches [1] Market Fundamentals - Zinc - Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production of zinc is increasing, but demand is in the off - season, and overall procurement is limited [1] Industry News - Glencore will sell its Lady Loretta zinc mine, which may cause a 1/3 reduction in Mount Isa's lead - zinc concentrate output. Teck Resources' Red Dog mine had a slight decline in zinc concentrate output in Q2 2025 due to lower ore grades, and lead concentrate output remained stable. The company expects to release inventory in Q3 [1] Trading Data - For lead, futures active contract volume decreased by 33.89% to 46,419 lots, and open interest increased by 12.40% to 69,992 lots. LME lead inventory was 269,325 tons, and Shanghai lead warehouse receipts decreased by 0.50% to 59,959 tons. For zinc, futures active contract volume decreased by 12.43% to 152,003 lots, and open interest decreased by 2.14% to 134,935 lots. LME zinc inventory was 116,900 tons, and Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts decreased by 1.24% to 11,940 tons [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Driven by the continuous push of the macro "anti - involution" sentiment, the industrial silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded in resonance, and the market has gradually stabilized above 9,500 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a firm short - term trend. However, after the price rebound, the selling hedging pressure above the market may increase, which may stimulate production - cut enterprises to resume production. The actual production dynamics of silicon enterprises should be continuously monitored [1]. - Polysilicon: Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon market has continued to rise, reaching a new high since listing. It is expected to maintain a relatively strong consolidation in the short term, but the risk of chasing long positions is high, and cautious operation is recommended. The price transmission situation in the industrial chain and the warehouse receipt registration situation should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.03% to 9,850 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon increased by 0.98% to 10,350 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 1.73% to 9,690 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory Situation**: On July 24, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 53.5 tons, a decrease of 1.2 tons compared with last week. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses remained unchanged at 12 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts) decreased by 1.2 tons to 41.5 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: On the supply side, large northern factories have production - cut plans with no resumption news yet. The southwest production area is about to enter the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operation, but the resumption speed is slow. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the supply may decrease. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increase. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The operation of domestic monomer enterprises is mixed, and the overall operation has declined, further weakening the demand for industrial silicon. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained unchanged at 45 yuan/kg; the price of N - type re -投料 remained unchanged at 46 yuan/kg; the price of N - type mixed material remained unchanged at 43.5 yuan/kg; the price of N - type granular silicon remained unchanged at 44 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract increased by 7.36% to 53,765 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, with the July output expected to approach 110,000 tons. On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with an increase in the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the price of downstream silicon wafers has followed the increase, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. However, the demand was greatly overdrawn by the rush to install in the first half of the year, and the terminal market is still weak [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On July 23, the main contract of new lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The spot market was in negotiation. The basis changed from a discount to a premium. The price of spodumene concentrate and mica increased on the cost side. Lithium carbonate production rose last week on the supply side. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased in June, the production schedule of ternary materials increased, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate decreased, and the production of power batteries decreased last week. In terms of terminal demand, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued in June, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production schedule of energy storage batteries increased in June. In terms of inventory, registered warehouse receipts increased, social inventory decreased slightly, smelters reduced inventory, while downstream and others accumulated inventory. The "anti - involution" sentiment continued, and there was a large divergence between buyers and sellers in the spot market. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or buy straddle options [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Data - **Closing Prices**: On July 23, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate were 69,320 yuan/ton, 69,380 yuan/ton, 68,620 yuan/ton, and 68,620 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 3,480 yuan/ton, 3,500 yuan/ton, 3,180 yuan/ton, and 3,180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 1,334,159 lots (+215,933), and the position was 362,054 lots (-49,584) [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts inventory was 10,754 tons (+665) [2]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive - one contracts was - 60 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the consecutive - one and consecutive - two contracts was 760 yuan/ton (-320), and the spread between the consecutive - two and consecutive - three contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - **Basis**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was 1,070 yuan/ton (+4,850) [2]. Raw Material Prices - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 750 US dollars/ton (+8), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,040 yuan/ton (+10), the average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,605 yuan/ton (+15) [2]. Downstream Product Prices - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 70,450 yuan/ton (+1,350), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 68,800 yuan/ton (+1,350), the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 59,820 - 64,970 yuan/ton (+1,100), and the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 51,000 yuan/ton (+250) [2]. - **Cathode Materials**: The prices of various ternary precursors and materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide showed different degrees of change, with some remaining unchanged [2]. - **Anode Materials and Electrolytes**: The prices of some anode materials and electrolytes remained unchanged [2]. - **Cobalt - Related Products**: The average price of electrolytic cobalt was 245,000 yuan/ton (+500), the average price of cobalt sulfate was 50,975 yuan/ton (+25), and the average price of tricobalt tetroxide was 208,650 yuan/ton (0) [2]. Inventory Data - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 142,620 tons (+1,827), with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and others accumulating inventory [2]. Market News - He Lifeng will go to Sweden to hold economic and trade talks with the US from July 27 to 30. Zheng Shanjie proposed to promote the rectification of involution - style competition and expand industrial chain and supply chain cooperation. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit ranges of relevant contracts for industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures [2].

| 1.何立峰将于7月27日至30日赴瑞典与美方举行经贸会谈。 | 资讯 | 2.郑栅洁:推动整治内卷式竞争、拓展产业链供应链合作。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 7月23日,沪線主力合约区间成為,成交量为133758手（+24722）,特色量为95734手（+60116）,伦操涨0.30%。现货市场成交 | 一般,基差升水扩大。供给端,镍矿价格持平,上周银矿到渗量成少,港口库存去年;煤铁厂亏损幅皮收窄,6月国内排产 | | | 城少,印尼排产城少,铁铁去摩;7月国内史解像群产城少,出口盈利扩大。需求端,三元糖产培加:不锈钢厂排产下降; | 媒 | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所减少,LNE减少,社会摩存增加,保税区库存持平。综上,纯银基本面偏松,但宏 | | 观众围主导,预计操价高位震荡。探作上,建议观望,等待"反内基"情绪消退。（观点评分:0） | 风险提示:美联储降息预期变化,"反内卷"政策落地 | | | 投资策略 | | | | 7月23日,不锈钢主力合约冲高回落,成交量为226003手(+33911),持仓堂为122384手(-1674);现货市场成交较弱,基差 | 升水扩 ...

Report Title - The title of the report is "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250724: Domestic Bauxite Supply and Demand Expected to Be Loose in July, Domestic Electrolytic Aluminum Social Inventory Increases Month-on-Month" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The domestic bauxite supply and demand in July are expected to be loose, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory has increased month-on-month [1] - For different aluminum products, due to various factors such as cost changes, policy expectations, and inventory levels, the price increase space may be limited, and investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 23, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai aluminum futures was 20,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan compared to the previous day; the SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum average price was 20,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan. The national alumina average price was 3,239.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.41 yuan [2] - **Price Spreads**: The Shanghai aluminum basis was 60 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan; the spread between Shanghai aluminum near - month and Shanghai aluminum continuous - one was 25 yuan, unchanged; the spread between Shanghai aluminum continuous - one and Shanghai aluminum continuous - two was 45 yuan, a decrease of 20 yuan [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai aluminum futures was 57,723 tons, a decrease of 3,161 tons; the inventory of LME 3 - month aluminum futures (registration and cancellation of warehouse receipts) was N/A on July 23, 2025, and it was 124,825 tons on July 22 [2] Industry News and Company Plans - **Ouxiang Alloy**: Plans to raise no more than 600 million yuan through private placement to promote its recycled deformed lead - alloy project, with funds invested in Anhui Yubo's annual 630,000 - ton lead - ball - protected lead - alloy flat ingot project and annual 600,000 - ton green - cycle high - performance aluminum plate strip project [3] - **Tajikistan**: Aims to achieve an average annual growth rate of 20% in primary aluminum output in the next three years, and its aluminum output in 2025 is expected to reach the level of 101,000 tons in 2019 [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - **Alumina**: Domestic bauxite production (import) proportion increases, and supply and demand are expected to be loose. Chinese alumina production in July may increase month - on - month due to project construction. Overseas alumina production in July may also increase month - on - month. The import window is closed, and domestic port alumina inventory has decreased [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum production in July - August may increase month - on - month due to project start - up and production resumption. Domestic electrolytic aluminum import volume may increase month - on - month, but the import window closure may limit imports. Social inventory has increased, and the downstream processing enterprise capacity utilization rate has changed [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Chinese scrap aluminum production (import) may increase month - on - month. The primary aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate remains flat, while the recycled aluminum alloy capacity utilization rate has decreased [3] Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: Suggest investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 3,800 - 4,200 yuan/ton [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Advise investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton for domestic aluminum, and the support level around 2,300 - 2,500 and the pressure level around 2,700 - 2,800 for LME aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Recommend investors to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high prices, and pay attention to the support level around 19,700 - 20,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level around 20,500 - 21,000 yuan/ton [3]