Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a range-bound and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing a weak trend [1][2]. - The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro sentiment and downstream start - up [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yunguizhou region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and restart: The shutdown time is mostly in mid - to late January, and the restart time is expected to be around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, with an estimated impact on the total construction steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown [1]. - Anhui's short - process steel mills' shutdown: One of the 6 short - process steel mills in Anhui started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest plan to shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [2]. - New commercial housing transaction area: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - Market situation: The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. - Later concerns: Macro policies and downstream demand [2]. Aluminum Ingots - Macro factors: The US dollar fell again on Tuesday due to the Fed's cautious attitude towards the economy, while China released signals of loose monetary policy, improving market expectations and stimulating economic growth and investment and consumption demand [1]. - Ore - end situation: Guinea's government announced the recovery of 51 mining licenses, causing disturbances in the ore end. As of May 16, the average cost of the alumina industry decreased to 2,812 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton compared to early April, with the bauxite cost decreasing by 323 yuan/ton and the caustic soda cost decreasing by 54 yuan/ton. The alumina industry has turned profitable on average, and some alumina production capacity may resume production. However, due to the resurgence of disturbances in the bauxite supply end, there is a possibility of a rebound in bauxite prices, and alumina costs may change again [2]. - Import and inventory: In April 2025, China imported 20.684 million tons of bauxite, a 25.62% increase from the previous month and a 45.44% increase year - on - year. As of May 19, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the mainstream consumption areas in China was 585,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last Thursday and a decrease of 16,000 tons from last Monday. The arrival of goods increased significantly over the weekend, and the subsequent destocking speed is likely to slow down. Whether it will turn to inventory accumulation depends on the matching between the replenishment demand increment of downstream export orders and the subsequent arrival increment. Normally, due to smooth domestic transportation in May and the expected weakening of off - season warehousing, the circulation in the mainstream consumption areas in China may gradually loosen at the end of May and early June [2]. - Later concerns: Changes in macro expectations, development of geopolitical crises, ore - end resumption of production, and consumption release [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The macro - disturbance has weakened and market sentiment has improved, but the overall supply - demand situation of coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the price is temporarily treated as a rebound with a bearish outlook [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coking coal and coke continued the weak and volatile trend, hitting new lows, and rebounded slightly at night; the first round of spot price cut of coke was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further cuts. Recently, the macro - disturbance to the market has weakened, but the supply - strong and demand - weak fundamentals of coal and coke have dragged down the price performance [3] Coking Enterprise Situation - After the first round of coke price cut, the profits of most coking enterprises in many regions have returned to the break - even point. Most coking enterprises in the region maintain the previous production restriction state, with normal production rhythm. Some coking enterprises have slightly increased production. The recent shipment situation has improved compared with before, and most coking plants keep their coke inventory at a low level [3] Downstream Demand - Last week, the average daily output of hot metal from steel mills was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons. Recently, the hot metal output has shown a peak - to - decline trend. Some steel mills have plans for production reduction and maintenance. Affected by relevant policies, steel mills are more cautious in purchasing raw materials such as coke and mainly purchase on - demand [3] Mongolian Coal Import - After the port inventory pressure has been continuously relieved, the Mongolian coal import has quickly recovered to the level of the same period last year. Some Mongolian coal is piled up in the warehouse after import. Since there is no expectation of an increase in downstream demand, the recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance has brought supply pressure to the market again [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term, and the industrial silicon market is still in a downward trend, showing weak fluctuations in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Price - The spot price of industrial silicon fluctuated little yesterday, with the ex - factory price hovering at the bottom. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures, si2506, was 7910, down 2.34%, with 10324 hands reduced during the day, a total of 64,700 hands, and a turnover of 5.116 billion yuan [1] Supply - Northern large factories will continue to resume production in the near future. It is expected that the eastern production area will gradually resume production to 40 submerged arc furnaces. Coupled with the fact that some southern factories are ready to start furnaces, the market supply is expected to increase significantly next month, which is obviously negative for the current price [1] Demand - The price of polysilicon is stable, and the game between upstream and downstream continues to deepen. The price expectation divergence intensifies. At present, the transaction price of some polysilicon has fallen below the cost line. The price - concession willingness of silicon material enterprises is limited, but due to inventory pressure, downstream still has the bargaining initiative. The mainstream price of silicone DMC remains stable, and manufacturers focus on shipment. The short - term transaction center will still remain in the low - price range, and the subsequent actual transaction of DMC is expected to be maintained at 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton. Recently, with production cuts, the inventory of silicone has decreased slightly, and the short - term demand for industrial silicon remains stable. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, but the enterprise profit continues to narrow, the shipment is average, and production is under pressure [1] Inventory - On May 20, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 66,246 hands, an increase of 152 hands, and the total inventory of industrial silicon remained at a high level [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The unexpected easing of Sino-US trade relations has led to an upward revision of iron ore valuation. With the suspension of 90-day (24% reciprocal tariffs), the market has adjusted its expectations of declining exports. Iron ore is in a pattern of high demand, high discounts, and inventory reduction, resulting in greater price elasticity [3]. - In the short term, the trading focus tends to be on strong reality and sentiment repair. With the domestic macro - policy in a vacuum and weak expectations of incremental policies, the market is expected to be more dominated by macro - sentiment repair, and the influence of fundamentals will decrease [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The supply of foreign mines has increased significantly on a month - on - month basis, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. In May, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady and rising shipment trend, with the supporting force on the supply side gradually weakening [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a historically high level. Iron water production has declined to 244.8 (-0.87) on a month - on - month basis, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, with a high profit rate for steel mills and an upward - revised export expectation, iron water production is expected to decline at a high level with a gentle slope, having a small impact on prices in the short term [4]. Inventory - Given the high domestic demand in May, port inventory is expected to remain stable or decline. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased inventory reduction at a high level cannot provide upward momentum [5]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The market will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the price center shifting upward periodically. The pressure range for the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range for the outer - market FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [5].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The overall supply - demand situation of coking coal and coke remains weak. With the continuous increase in coking coal supply and the potential peak - to - decline trend of hot metal production, the prices are currently treated as a rebound with a bearish outlook [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Trend - Recently, the futures prices of coking coal and coke have been oscillating weakly, hitting new lows continuously. The first - round reduction of coke spot prices has been implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction [2]. Fundamental Situation - Most coking enterprises in the region maintain their previous production - limiting status, with normal production rhythms. Some coking enterprises have slightly increased production. The recent shipment situation has improved compared to before, and most coking plants keep their coke inventories at a low level [2]. Downstream Demand - Last week, the steel mill's hot metal production was 244.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 million tons. There is a trend of peak - to - decline in hot metal production recently. Some steel mills have plans for production reduction and maintenance, and due to relevant policies, steel mills' procurement is cautious, mainly on a demand - based basis [2]. Mongolian Coal Import - After the port inventory pressure has been continuously alleviated, the import of Mongolian coal has quickly recovered to the level of the same period last year. However, some imported Mongolian coal has become "dead stock" in the warehouse. Given the lack of improvement in downstream demand, the recent recovery of Mongolian coal customs clearance has put obvious pressure on the market [3].

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：周末到货增加 关注铝库存走势 投资咨询业务资格： 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， 市场情绪同样偏悲观，导致价格重心持续下移。无论从宏观上还是产业上， 市场近期均无太多亮点。且今年冬储偏低迷，对价格支撑不强。 观点：震荡整理运行。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 成 材：武秋婷 原材料：程 鹏 有色金属：于梦雪 基本面来看，矿端扰动再起，据媒体报道，几内亚政府宣布已经收回 了 51 份矿业许可。一些分析师认为，此举是全球第二大铝土矿生产国对大 型运营商发出的警告。据 SMM 氧化铝理论利润数据显示，自 3 月 19 日以来， 氧化铝企业理论利润便开始出现亏损态势，此后亏损情况一直持续 ...

晨报 成材 成材：需求偏弱 价格震荡下行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 20 日 逻辑：5 月 19 日，国家统计局数据显示，1-4 月份，中国粗钢累计产 量 34535 万吨，同比增长 0.4%。5 月 19 日，76 家独立电弧炉建筑钢材钢 厂平均成本为 3326 元/吨，环比上周五减少 9 元/吨，平均利润为亏损 95 元/吨，谷电利润为 10 元/吨。据中国工程机械工业协会对平地机主要制 造企业统计，2025 年 4 月当月销售各类平地 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for industrial silicon has not improved, and the inventory has not been effectively digested. In the short term, the silicon price will continue to fluctuate weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the overall weak situation of industrial silicon spot prices remained unchanged. Downstream buyers mostly purchased on demand, and there was no new demand. Currently, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon is between 8,700 - 9,100 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is between 9,600 - 10,100 yuan/ton. On the futures side, the closing price of the main contract si2507 of industrial silicon futures yesterday was 8,130, a decrease of 1.87%. The intraday trading volume was 16,616 lots, with a total of 155,000 lots and a turnover of 8.519 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, the prices of silica and silicon coal in the raw material segment have weakened, reducing the production cost of manufacturers. With the approaching of the wet season and the resumption of production of previously shut - down manufacturers, the output may increase slightly. Traders are inquiring about goods, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting. Some low - priced goods have had small - volume transactions. The production in the Gansu production area is relatively stable, and the output of 97 - silicon continues to remain low. The short - term start - up is difficult to improve. The operating rate of medium - frequency furnaces is low, and the prices are still at a low level, making it difficult for manufacturers to resume production [1] Demand Side - The polysilicon market continues to operate weakly. Currently, the terminal demand is significantly weak, and downstream procurement is becoming more cautious. The weekly trading volume remains flat, and the market stalemate remains unchanged. The price of organic silicon is temporarily stable. After some large monomer manufacturers made a tentative price increase before the festival, they sold goods with a small discount, and the number of inquiries has increased. The price of aluminum alloy ingots fluctuates. Large manufacturers have slightly reduced their inventories, and enterprises with low inventories are more willing to hold prices, making the market circulation slightly looser [1] Inventory - On May 19, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,097 lots, a single - day decrease of 287 lots. The total inventory of industrial silicon remains at a high level [1]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：矿端扰动再起 成本端支撑走强 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 19 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations, the short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality and emotional repair. With the short - term domestic macro - policy in a complete vacuum, the expectation of incremental policies is weak, demand has basically peaked, and as the supply side continues to recover, it is expected to be more dominated by macro - emotional repair in the short term, with the influence of fundamentals decreasing [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - The unexpected easing of Sino - US trade relations has led to an upward revision of the valuation of the black series. The suspension of 90 - day (24% reciprocal tariffs) has strengthened the behavior of seizing exports to the US, and the market has revised its expectation of export decline. The price of the black series has risen collectively, and the price of iron ore has rebounded more strongly due to high demand, high discount, and inventory depletion [3]. Supply - The overall shipment of foreign mines is stable, and the year - on - year decline is narrowing. May is the peak season for foreign mine shipments, and the shipments of mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, with the supporting force on the supply side weakening marginally [3]. Demand - Domestic demand is at a high level in the same historical period. The hot metal has decreased to 244.8 (- 0.87) month - on - month, indicating a short - term peak in demand. However, the profitability rate of steel mills is high and the export expectation has been revised upwards. It is expected that the hot metal will decline at a high level with a relatively low downward slope, and the short - term impact on prices is small [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be depleted. However, the overall inventory is at a high level, and the phased de - stocking at a high inventory level is difficult to provide upward driving force [3]. Strategy - It is recommended to conduct range operations, with the overall price still in a range - bound pattern and the price center shifting upwards periodically. The price pressure range of the i2509 contract is 720 - 750 yuan/ton, and the price range of the foreign FE06 contract is 98 - 102 US dollars/ton [4].