Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are both increasing. The peak demand season and pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises support the price - holding confidence in the raw material market. The futures market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, and investors should pay attention to position - holding risks before the holiday [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - In the past two days, the prices of coking coal and coke futures have been fluctuating weakly, driving the overall sector to weaken. On the spot market, coal prices in many places have remained stable after a continuous small - scale rebound. Due to increased costs, coke enterprises in many places plan to raise coke prices for the first time [2] Fundamental Analysis - Tangshan is affected by environmental protection policies and requires enterprises to prepare for hard emission - reduction measures before the end of September. However, most of the production restrictions are voluntary, and the actual implementation of production cuts is average. The daily average pig iron output last week increased by 13,400 tons to 2.4236 million tons, and the consumption of raw materials remains at a high level. Steel mills are generally profitable, and in the short - term, as the National Day holiday approaches, the downstream restocking enthusiasm is high, and the inventory of coking coal and coke is further transferred from upstream to downstream [2] Supply - side Situation - At the coal mine end, the production of previously resumed coal mines in Linfen, Shanxi has returned to normal, and the output has continued to rise. Coupled with the increased production of a large mining group in Qinyuan, Changzhi, the output has increased significantly. The daily average output of clean coal last week was 772,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. It is expected that the output of coal mines in the main producing areas of Shanxi will not fluctuate much this week, but some coal mines have reported that there will be a short - term shutdown for maintenance during the National Day holiday, and the output may decline slightly during this period [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the macro - economic situation at home and abroad, as well as the market conditions of aluminum, zinc, and tin in the fourth quarter of 2025. Overseas, the US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone shows a mild recovery. Domestically, the economy is in a state of fluctuating recovery, and domestic demand needs policy support. In the non - ferrous metals market, the prices of different metals are affected by various factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies, and each has different price trends and investment outlooks [4][55][56]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro: Fed Restarts Preventive Rate Cut, Domestic Economy Awaits Policy Drive Market Operation Logic - **US**: Economic growth momentum is weakening, with the manufacturing sector in a contraction zone and the service sector being the main economic support. The labor market is deteriorating, inflation is showing a slight rebound, and the Fed cut interest rates in September. The market expects a high probability of a rate cut in October, but future policies will depend on employment and inflation data [19][20][21]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing sector is under pressure again, while the service sector drives a mild economic recovery. Inflation is stable, and the ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September [28][29][30]. - **Domestic**: Investment growth momentum is insufficient, with infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment facing challenges. Consumption shows weakening recovery momentum, but may pick up in the fourth quarter. Exports and imports maintain stable growth, and prices are expected to gradually recover [35][40][45]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas: The US economic growth momentum is weakening, and the eurozone is in a mild recovery. The Fed may cut interest rates in October, and the ECB will be cautious about further rate cuts [55]. - Domestic: Investment growth momentum is declining, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment may stabilize and grow in the fourth quarter. Consumption may recover mildly, and exports and imports are expected to continue to grow. Prices are expected to gradually recover [56]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, overseas geopolitical risks, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand conditions [59]. Aluminum: Peak Season Drives Inventory Reduction, Focus on the Strength of "Silver October" Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: The price of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated. In July, it first rose and then fell; in August, it remained high; in September, it rose first and then fell [61][62]. - **Cost Side**: Bauxite prices may show a weak - oscillation trend in the short term, and alumina prices are expected to continue to decline. The cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline slightly [66][72][76]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remains high, and the import loss is expanding [78][80]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price difference between refined and scrap aluminum has narrowed, and the industry is greatly affected by policies [82]. - **Demand Side**: The processing end shows a phased recovery, and the terminal demand is differentiated. The real estate market is still in adjustment, while the power, automotive, and other industries support demand [87][90][94]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Inventory has decreased, providing support for aluminum prices [96]. Market Trend Judgment In the short term, aluminum prices are strongly supported at high levels during the peak season, but there is room for adjustment after the peak season. The price range in the fourth quarter is expected to be between 19,800 - 20,000 for support and 21,000 - 21,500 for resistance [100]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas event disturbances, mine resumption and shipping conditions, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand performance [102]. Zinc Ingot: High Supply Meets Structural Demand, Inventory Pressure Needs to be Verified in Peak Season Market Operation Logic - **Price Trend in Q3 2025**: Zinc prices first rose and then fell. In the off - season, supply pressure was high, and demand was weak. In September, prices were supported by the peak season and interest - rate cut expectations but then adjusted [104][106][107]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: New production capacity is being released, and the resource shortage is gradually easing. Domestic and foreign processing fees are expected to diverge, and the import loss is expanding [108][112][116]. Market Trend Judgment In October, zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a reference range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text. Tin Ingot: Probability of Overseas Supply Increase, Risk of Price Center Decline Market Operation Logic - **Supply Side**: The resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State is the key factor. The delay in mining progress has affected smelter operations, and processing fees are at a low level [9]. - **Demand Side**: The semiconductor, automotive, and home appliance industries support tin demand, but the growth rate may slow down in the fourth quarter [9]. Market Trend Judgment Tin prices may decline from high - level oscillations in the fourth quarter, mainly depending on the increase in production in Myanmar's Wa State [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No specific information provided in the given text.

——2025 年 4 季度黑色金属分析报告 宏观：美联储重启预防式降息 国内经济仍待政策驱动 核心观点： 负责人：赵 毅 宏观/成材：武秋婷 海外方面，受全球需求疲软、贸易摩擦及供应链重构影响，美国经济增长动能有所 放缓。制造业表现疲软，并未出现反转信号，但服务业相对强劲成为经济增长的主要引 擎，劳动力市场增长近乎停滞，下行风险上升，通胀水平呈小幅反弹趋势，核心通胀粘 性仍较强，且关税政策不确定性或继续推高通胀压力。市场普遍预期美联储 10 月份降 息概率仍然较高，但未来路径将继续紧密跟踪就业和通胀数据。欧元区制造业收缩态势 加剧，而服务业则成为稳定经济的关键力量，整体通胀率符合欧洲央行通胀目标，核心 通胀率则保持坚挺，潜在价格压力仍存。欧元区经济整体呈现温和复苏态势，通胀走势 也总体可控，美欧贸易协议达成也在一定程度上降低了贸易不确定性，在此背景下，欧 央行对再度降息将保持谨慎态度。市场对欧央行 10 月降息的预期也存在不确定性。 黑色季报 4 季度 弱现实主导盘面 供给端仍存扰动 原材料： 冯艳成 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号： 国内方面，投资端，基础设施投资和制造业投资增速均延续回落趋势，对整体投资 支 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate cut has landed, and macro - disturbances have significantly decreased. It is expected that the market trading focus will shift to the real situation. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily rising, the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended but hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation is low. Iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend [2]. - The price will fluctuate within a range. The reference range is 780 - 80 yuan/ton, corresponding to 103 - 105 US dollars/ton in the overseas market. The strategy is range operation and covered call options [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Recently, macro - disturbances have weakened. The Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations and is defined as a preventive cut, with the expectation of continuous rate cuts weakening. Domestic policies are still in the reserve period. The black - series industrial chain is highly differentiated, with the raw material end generally stronger than the finished product end. The expectation of increasing iron ore supply remains unchanged. Steel mill复产 has driven up hot metal production. Although steel mill profits have fallen to the break - even line, the willingness of steel mills to actively cut production is still insufficient, but pre - holiday restocking is basically over, and the short - term upward driving force has weakened [2]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased month - on - month. Australia's shipments have decreased significantly, and Brazil's shipments have decreased slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the five - week average is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side continues to weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. This period has seen the continuation of steel mill复产 in blast furnaces, mainly due to the regular resumption of production after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang. Domestic demand is higher than the August average (240.5). The daily average hot metal production this period is 242.36 tons (month - on - month increase of 1.34). As steel mill production costs rise and finished product prices weaken, blast furnace profits have declined from a high level and are approaching the break - even level, and the steel mill profitability rate continues to decline. The pre - holiday restocking demand is basically over. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The steel mill inventory level has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to high domestic demand and insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel prices of finished products are running at a low level, and it is recommended to control the position risk as the National Day holiday approaches. The later focus includes macro - policies and downstream demand [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Current Situation of the Steel Industry - Last week, the scale of steel mill maintenance in the building steel industry was still at a peak. 12 provinces' steel mills were involved in production line maintenance and resumption, with 14 maintenance production lines (1 less than last week) and 4 resumption production lines (6 less than last week). The production affected by production line maintenance was 30.99 tons last week, and it is expected to be 29.33 tons this week [2] Policy and Market Data Changes - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Commerce adjusted the automobile trade - in policy, and the automobile replacement subsidy policy was suspended at 24:00 on September 28, 2025. The total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in October 2025 was 29.24 million units, a 9.9% decrease compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [2] Market Performance of Finished Products - Last week, finished products were horizontally consolidated in the early stage and fell significantly on Friday. Rebar and hot - rolled coils both reached recent lows. The fundamentals of the industry changed little last week. Rebar performed better with a slight increase in output, a large increase in apparent demand, and inventory reduction. Hot - rolled coil output and apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Finished products mainly ran at a low level due to weak demand [3]

晨报 煤焦 逻辑：上周煤焦期货价格延续震荡走势，周五及夜盘价格下挫。现货 方面，多地煤价保持连续小幅反弹后暂稳运行；焦企因成本增加，多地焦 企计划首轮提涨焦价。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 煤焦：供需双增 节前注意持仓风险 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 29 日 从基本面来看，近期唐山市受环保政策影响，要求企业在 9 月底前做 好硬减排措施准备，但本次限产多以自愿为主，实际落实减产情况一般。 上周日均铁水产量增长 1.34 万吨至 242.36 万吨，对于原料的消耗保持高 位 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **成材**: The price of finished products is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center of gravity shifting downward due to the weak supply - demand pattern, pessimistic market sentiment, and lackluster winter storage [1][2]. - **铝锭**: The price of aluminum ingots is expected to remain high in the short term, supported by the marginal improvement of the supply - demand pattern, the increase in downstream processing enterprise开工率, and the depletion of social inventory due to pre - holiday stocking [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content For成材 - **Production Suspension**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - flow construction steel producers will suspend production from mid - January to around the 11th - 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - flow steel mills has suspended production on January 5th, and most others will suspend production around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous week but a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2]. - **Price Movement**: The price of finished products continued to decline, reaching a new low recently. With weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center of gravity is moving down, and this year's winter storage is lackluster, providing little price support [2]. For铝锭 - **Macro Environment**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased last week, and the US economy grew faster in the second quarter than previously expected. Traders believe the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in the next meeting is 89.8%, lower than nearly 92% a week ago [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of the aluminum market has increased slightly due to the ramping up of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% last week [2]. - **Downstream Performance**: The aluminum cable sector was the main driving force, with the operating rate increasing by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors also increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. However, the operating rate of aluminum profiles remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry was facing challenges such as export decline and low - end product competition [2]. - **Inventory**: As of September 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 592,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from last Thursday and 46,000 tons from last Monday [2]. - **Price Outlook**: With the macro - interest - rate cut expectation fulfilled and approaching the peak consumption season, the price is expected to remain high in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and holiday risks [3].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - With the Fed's rate - cut decision made and macro - disturbances significantly reduced, the market's focus is expected to shift to real - world trading. In the short term, iron ore supply is steadily increasing. Although pre - holiday restocking on the demand side has ended, hot metal production has increased unexpectedly, and the pressure for continuous inventory accumulation is low. Therefore, iron ore is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The price will fluctuate within a range, with a reference range of 790 - 820 yuan/ton, corresponding to 105 - 108 US dollars/ton in the overseas market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Overseas ore shipments have decreased on a month - on - month basis. Australian shipments have dropped significantly, while Brazilian shipments have declined slightly. The average shipments of Australia and Brazil in the past five weeks are slightly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the average in the past five weeks is higher than the same period last year. Overall, the support from the supply side is continuously weakening [2]. Demand - Domestic demand remains at a high level, supporting the iron ore price. In this period, blast furnace steel mills have continued to resume production, mainly due to the normal resumption after the end of blast furnace maintenance in Hebei and Xinjiang regions. Domestic demand is higher than the average level in August (240.5). The daily average hot metal output in this period is 242.36 tons (a month - on - month increase of 1.34). As the production cost of steel mills rises and the price of finished products weakens, the blast furnace profit has declined from a high level and is approaching the break - even point. The profitability rate of steel mills continues to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand has basically ended. Overall, high hot metal production supports the iron ore price [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of steel mills has continued to increase with the resumption of production in multiple regions. The inventory level of steel mills has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the pre - holiday restocking intensity is higher than that of last year. It is expected that the pre - holiday restocking is basically over. This year's restocking cycle has advanced. The port throughput has decreased month - on - month. Since the arrival volume in this period is much higher than the same period last year, the port inventory has increased significantly. However, due to the high domestic demand and the insignificant increase in shipments, the pressure for inventory accumulation in the later period is expected to be low [2]. Strategy - The recommended strategy is range - based operation and covered call options [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Report's Core Views - The view on finished products is that they will run in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center moving down and running weakly [1][3] - The view on aluminum ingots is that they are expected to maintain a high - level operation in the short term, with prices supported by pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an estimated impact of 741,000 tons on building steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills will stop production, with a daily impact of about 16,200 tons [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [3] - Finished product prices hit a new low recently, with a pessimistic market sentiment in the context of weak supply and demand. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - The supply of the aluminum market has a small increase due to the climbing of replacement capacity, and the supply - demand pattern is improving marginally. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.8 percentage points to 63.0% [3] - The aluminum cable sector is the main driving force, with the operating rate rising by 1.8 percentage points to 67%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy and aluminum plate and strip sectors increased by 1% and 0.8% respectively. The aluminum profile operating rate remained flat at 54.60%, and the aluminum foil industry has limited upward momentum [3] - On September 25, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 617,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons compared with Monday and last Thursday. Short - term downstream purchasing increased, and the spot premium was firm [3] - In the medium - term, aluminum consumption is generally warming up, with stable growth in the automotive industry, growth expectations in the power industry, and marginal improvement in the construction industry [3]

晨报 成材 成材：成材基本面尚可 钢价震荡运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 9 月 26 日 逻辑：墨西哥政府拟对中国等非自贸伙伴的产品提高进口关税税率的 相关措施，具体涉及汽车及零部件、纺织品、服装、塑料、钢铁、家电、 铝、玻璃等产品类别。商务部决定对墨西哥相关涉华限制措施启动贸易投 资壁垒调查。云南钢企"反内卷"迈出实质性一步。五家龙头钢企锁定省 内 60 万吨资源投放，控产、稳价、共管秩序进入实操阶段，并达成多个 重要决议。根据钢联周度数据，本周螺纹钢产量上升 0.01 万吨至 206.46 万吨，热卷产量下降 2.3 万吨至 324.19 万吨，五大材总产量上升 9.47 万吨至 864.93 万吨；螺纹钢总库存下降 13.98 万吨至 636.3 万吨，热卷 总库存上升 2.51 万吨至 380.5 万吨，五大材总库存下降 9.13 万吨至 1510.61 ...